If there is someone they really want and that player makes it past the 16th to 18th pick, I could see the team doing something to move up a few slots. But I don't expect a major leap that would cost a premium pick
If there is someone they really want and that player makes it past the 16th to 18th pick, I could see the team doing something to move up a few slots. But I don't expect a major leap that would cost a premium pick
this is the scenario I was advocating for, exactly in that range. It would cost the Giants 3rd, but if somehow Howard drops to that range or Njoku is there but whispered to be taken soon, Giants should pounce.
But it depends how far they need to go up, I don't think the Giants want to lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick. I think a forth rounder where they sit is a definite possibility. So if it's a matter of moving up a couple of spots, yes they will do it, I don't see them moving up 10 spots though, moving up to 18 would cost us our third, maybe we get back a 6th or 7th, that would be possible only for Howard, but I am not certain about that since the money they spent on Ellison is significant.
We'll be drafting a solid red chip prospect at #23. There are 8 blue chip prospects in this draft imo. The odds are even if one of them slides a bit, say to #13, the cost will be enormous to move up to get in range. You'd have to forfeit this years 2nd Rounder to make that move. Bad idea.
The 2nd round I could see. Especially after hitting paydirt on Landon Collins with this strategy. But it's not a decision you make until you know if 'you're guy' has slid into Day 2.
sure they do crave Howard, but Reese isn't trading into the top ten to get him, which is where he's expected to go. The cost would be incredible. Different story if Howard somehow slips to the late teens. I'm OK if they trade up, but only if they don't give up more than one day three pick.
I also don't agree that the Giants have an "all in" mentality, and will therefore do anything to "win now" because Eli's "window" is closing. Reese isn't going to sacrifice the future, and as someone else noted, Pugh, Richburg, and Fluker are all FAs next year. And even if they ultimately produce, many first round picks don't do so as rookies. They can also get hurt like anyone else.
The only guy I can recall off the top of my head is Winslow.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
The only guy I can recall off the top of my head is Winslow.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
the Giants moves in FA this year are consistent with the way Reese works - he plays for value
I think he gets far more value drafting in the first five rounds in a deep draft than trading up with any of those picks - and given his history - especially with TE - it is a very unlikely target, value wise, to trade up for
so it's fun to talk about but I just don't see it
any draftee - even Howard, as much as the salivary glands are inspired by him, is a move for the future and not an all in now pick
Picking a Manning, a QB, is an all in move for the Giants, not a TE, and there is no Manning in the draft this year
going to absolutely hate it if Reese starts burning multiple picks to move up in the first round. That's just desperate and stupid. What is the success rate for first round picks? 50%? Just stay put, and take one of the following:
the Giants moves in FA this year are consistent with the way Reese works - he plays for value
I think he gets far more value drafting in the first five rounds in a deep draft than trading up with any of those picks - and given his history - especially with TE - it is a very unlikely target, value wise, to trade up for
so it's fun to talk about but I just don't see it
any draftee - even Howard, as much as the salivary glands are inspired by him, is a move for the future and not an all in now pick
Picking a Manning, a QB, is an all in move for the Giants, not a TE, and there is no Manning in the draft this year
Agreed. I'd rather Reese take Mahomes at #23 than trade more than one day three pick to move up for Howard. And I have no interest in taking Mahomes at #23, although I think the Giants might well do so.
I most likely would be very annoyed if we gave up a second this year. A third? I am sure we will have another shot as a possibly starter in the third too. Now, if we have to pull a move like we did with Shockey (going up one pick or just a couple) and not give up much then fine.
the Giants moves in FA this year are consistent with the way Reese works - he plays for value
I think he gets far more value drafting in the first five rounds in a deep draft than trading up with any of those picks - and given his history - especially with TE - it is a very unlikely target, value wise, to trade up for
so it's fun to talk about but I just don't see it
any draftee - even Howard, as much as the salivary glands are inspired by him, is a move for the future and not an all in now pick
Picking a Manning, a QB, is an all in move for the Giants, not a TE, and there is no Manning in the draft this year
Reese has an affinity for play makers over safer players. He's demonstrated this countless times. it's why he drafts players like David Wilson, Ramses Barden (even trading up with a rival to select him) or Jerrell Jernigan - and many more in the top few rounds of the draft.
If there is a play maker in the 16 - 18/20 range I could absolutely see a trade up.
The only guy I can recall off the top of my head is Winslow.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
History says that Howard won't go top 10.
eric ebron
Vernon Davis
Giants are not giving up 23 and 55 for any 1 player
Not named Myles Garrett. In order to move up from 23 with giving up the third rounder you wouldnt be able to get anywhere near the top 10. Maybe you trade up to 15 tops, giving up 23 and a third.. But what player is going to fall past 15 that is worth this type of deal? A tight end? In the deepest TE class in recent memory.. Pleeaase.
yes move up and get the final piece to the passing game.
Imagine all the passes that Tye caught last year and got three yards now see Howard with the same catches and in the Redzone.
...I would have liked to see Vernon Davis play with a good QB. He's had a pack of bums throwing it to him his entire career. Before you comment, Yes I think Alex Smith is a bum.
3rd round track record, there is literally zero scenario I shed a tear with Reese giving up a 3rd round pick for a player he covets in the 1st.
2016: Darian Thompson S
2015: Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE
2014: Jay Bromley DT
2013: Damontre Moore DE
2012: Jayron Hosley CB
2011: Jerrel Jernigan WR
2010: Chad Jones S
2009: Ramses Barden WR (trade up), Travis Beckum TE
2008: Mario Manningham WR
2007: Jay Alford DT
People overrate draft picks immensely. I read the comments every year after the draft "I love our Uconn WR Geremy Davis. I think he has a chance to start" or "Greg Jones, that guy is a legit NFL linebacker. I'm excited about that pick" and it's a lottery ticket getting one of those guys to actually pan out and start let alone excel.
3rd round isn't much more likely. I posted the success rate from 2004 to 2014 last week, here it is again:
Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
Quote:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
I think they'd want Howard over any other offensive player
(perhaps aside from Trubisky). I'm not sure they'd want Howard over Garrett or Thomas, but they probably would take him over any other defensive player.
I think that Howard is a star in the making, but the cost to get up to him might be astronomical. You're not getting him for a 3 and 4 plus our 1.
One of the few times I am right in predicting things
is with the Giants and a bold off-season move or two or three. I nailed it in 2004. Bold I know. I nailed it last year. Even bolder...and I think they will trade up this year.
They don't really need quantity as much as they need impact. They signed a lunch pail guy for the offense and will likely draft another but they could really use one more impact player on O and D. Trading up helps that cause.
Sadly Kirk Cousins will be far and away the best passer...
but the Giants LOVE the kid. Has it ever happened during the 1st round where a team like the Giants would call the Ravens and make an offer for Howard giving #23 and #87 or whatever?
(Howard is one of the few players I can see our team trading up for.)
RE: That would tell me that QB is not in the cards in round 1
I think they will wait until round 2-3 to take a QB. I can't blame them for taking a guy in round 1 but gun to my head, I don't see it. I think they go for the impact player in round 1 either by trade up or standing pat and then they will let the QB dust settle.
Honestly I don't know what the hell they do. Every day I change my mind. I know what I want though. I want a defensive bad ass in round 1 if all things are equal. Then get the TE, RB, OL, CB later on--in no particular order.
How far you think we need to move up? I'd guess to pick 10(Bills). Saints need defensive playmaker at 11, and the Browns would be an ideal landing spot for Howard. That's a huge jump, and would cost a ton.
RE: RE: That would tell me that QB is not in the cards in round 1
I think they will wait until round 2-3 to take a QB. I can't blame them for taking a guy in round 1 but gun to my head, I don't see it. I think they go for the impact player in round 1 either by trade up or standing pat and then they will let the QB dust settle.
Honestly I don't know what the hell they do. Every day I change my mind. I know what I want though. I want a defensive bad ass in round 1 if all things are equal. Then get the TE, RB, OL, CB later on--in no particular order.
Round 2-3 would not surprise me at all, perhaps one of the QB's we really like will be there anyways. Just looking at the moves we've made this offseason, we're in "win now" mode. Personally, I'm hoping that we come out of this draft with one really good playmaker on offense.
How does that conversation go exactly with the opposing GM? Trade down with us so we can get the player we really love but we don't want to give you much for him???
everyone's opinions on what you are NEVER supposed to do.
Can't take a QB here.
Can't trade up for a TE there.
Never draft a RB high.
All of this means nothing. All we can go on are what we know to be NYG tendencies. Keep in mind however, this is only year two of the Reese/Mac approach, very little history.
In my own words I would try to best describe NYG philosophy as best marriage of value + need with an eye towards DE, CB, WR.
This year is very exciting because there seem to be a million different things going on at once. FA moves reflect a team that is acknowledging a 2-3 year window with an aging QB. We all know that outside of Hankins, the final pieces to this roster are TE, RB or perhaps another OL.
On the other hand, because you have an aging QB, and a second year HC with an eye towards grooming QBs. You very well might see one taken early.
My gut says round 1 we come away with a TE, RB or QB, perhaps with a trade up.
You have an 11-5 team that did not lose any real body,
It's an educated guess based on team needs and prospect rankings but...I could see Howard available at #13. Him dropping further than that is problematical. It would cost your 2nd Rounder to get him. Or a comparable package of picks from this and next years draft. Bad idea imo.
The only guy I can recall off the top of my head is Winslow.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
History says that Howard won't go top 10.
I wish you were right about Howard but 99% of the time where there's smoke there's fire. There's too much good buzz on Howard. He might make it past 10 but not much further in my view. I do agree about the QBs but not all of them will go in the first. I will say two go the rest slide.
RE: Lets say the Ravens select Howard with pick #16
but the Giants LOVE the kid. Has it ever happened during the 1st round where a team like the Giants would call the Ravens and make an offer for Howard giving #23 and #87 or whatever?
(Howard is one of the few players I can see our team trading up for.)
Raven and Bucs love to grab our Targets. And you never know what the Titans will do.
Think of this 2 TE packages with Perkins in the backfield. or our famous 11 package with Howard as a big target. 2 big targets 2 fast in OBJ and Shepard.
and I think OTs will go in round 1 as well. I know there aren't many but the 3-4 OTs that are on everyone's radar will all go in round 1, even if many of them aren't that good. Teams are desperate for OTs and CBs. Sprinkle in a couple of QBs going early, hopefully more, and maybe the Giants get lucky and an athlete slips to 23.
I think Ebron is starting to finally get it. 61 catches for 711 yards last year in 13 games. If he can stay healthy moving forward in his career, I think he'll be a 75-80 type guy year over year, especially with Stafford there. It took a little bit but Ebron has become a nice player.
It's year four. So I'll stick with has been a disappointment. 7 TD's in three seasons for a guy touted as a red zone difference maker. #10 overall. He'll have a lot of making up to do to justify that pick for the Lions.
If the Giants trade up it will be their 3rd round pick they give up to move into the 18th or 19th slot (ahead of Denver) and they will use the pick on either Ramczyk or Robinson.
OL is the elephant in the room (as in: the Giants need another elephant in the room)....
Those 2 go well after 23, and probably in the 2nd round. Should never trade up for them.
Howard is a projection, but the physical package is a once in a decade package.
In evaluating Howard, people have to realize how strong Bama was. There was no reason to structure an offense around Howard, and even less as the QB was not up to the talent level of the rest of the team.
If Howard took 4 years to produce he and the entire Giants
Those 2 go well after 23, and probably in the 2nd round.
And you know this because.....???
What's so abnormal about this draft? 32 prospects will be selected in the first round, some will succeed, some will fail. Was it a normal draft when Scherff and Flowers went in the top ten or was that an abnormal draft as well? How do you think Ramczyk and Robinson stack up against Scherff and Flowers coming out of school?
I have a 1st round grade on Robinson and Ramczyk (ahead of Howard, Njoku, Charlton, Reddick, and Cunningham, btw) and you don't. But who the hell are we? We won't know what the professionals think until April 27th. And the professionals don't have such a great track record to begin with.
If you break it down by position, in all likelihood, I agree it's for either of the 2 TE's. Howard absolutely would require a significant trade to get and Njoku is probably gone around 20.
It can't be any other position, right? QB, OL, RB, WR, DL, LB, or DB. I don't see it.
How does that conversation go exactly with the opposing GM? Trade down with us so we can get the player we really love but we don't want to give you much for him???
We've seen all sorts of draft day trades that are better or worse than the standard trade chart.
We don't know who the Giants may be targeting and at what rounds. People are assuming it's Howard.
It's year four. So I'll stick with has been a disappointment. 7 TD's in three seasons for a guy touted as a red zone difference maker. #10 overall. He'll have a lot of making up to do to justify that pick for the Lions.
He's turning 23 in April. And if you mean "it's year 4" sure, this is his 4th NFL season coming up. Look at the production, it's increased every season. He had more learning to do than they probably realized but he's 22 years old! What 22 year old tight ends in the league currently are catching 60 balls?
And that's irrelevant to the return they've gotten on the investment. 2 lost seasons followed by 61 receptions and no red zone impact from a former #10 overall pick is disappointing. Own it.
Those 2 go well after 23, and probably in the 2nd round.
And you know this because.....???
What's so abnormal about this draft? 32 prospects will be selected in the first round, some will succeed, some will fail. Was it a normal draft when Scherff and Flowers went in the top ten or was that an abnormal draft as well? How do you think Ramczyk and Robinson stack up against Scherff and Flowers coming out of school?
I have a 1st round grade on Robinson and Ramczyk (ahead of Howard, Njoku, Charlton, Reddick, and Cunningham, btw) and you don't. But who the hell are we? We won't know what the professionals think until April 27th. And the professionals don't have such a great track record to begin with.
Milton, you've always been one of my favorite posters. You remain true to your convictions and don't yield ground to the BBI chorus.
It's year four. So I'll stick with has been a disappointment. 7 TD's in three seasons for a guy touted as a red zone difference maker. #10 overall. He'll have a lot of making up to do to justify that pick for the Lions.
He's turning 23 in April. And if you mean "it's year 4" sure, this is his 4th NFL season coming up. Look at the production, it's increased every season. He had more learning to do than they probably realized but he's 22 years old! What 22 year old tight ends in the league currently are catching 60 balls?
Apply said logic to 20 yr old rookie starter, 21 yr old second year starter and 22 yr old soon to be 3rd yr starter LT Flowers, E.
RE: RE: RE: If so, let's hope they don't tip their hand again this year
that is coming off an operation and had 1 year at D1. #1 almost certainly needs either impact or to start. I'm not sure Ramcyzk can do either this year.
I think Howard or Njoku are the players they would like or one of the really good LBs or CBs.
then they can't trade up for him. I really can't imagine them trading a second rounder to move up. But if Njoku is there and it only requires a third and something else, I think they jump all over it.
LOL, yeah, "don't be shocked if they trade up in the first or second round"
crazy smokescreen there. Teams will be scrambling to decode this one.
and like last year when they were like an open book with their affinity for Conklin and Floyd hopefully, if they really did like both players, they aren't as open with their thoughts.
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Emil, I think the Green Bay offense is centered around the tight end. I think the fact we haven't had a legit tight end has crippled this offense.
Eric, don't you think it will take at least the 2nd rounder to move up to get Howard? Can't Njoku be an upgrade at TE and checks enough boxes to be the target?
LOL, yeah, "don't be shocked if they trade up in the first or second round"
crazy smokescreen there. Teams will be scrambling to decode this one.
and like last year when they were like an open book with their affinity for Conklin and Floyd hopefully, if they really did like both players, they aren't as open with their thoughts.
Guesses from beat writers are all it takes for people to believe that the Giants were crushed or hoodwinked in the draft. According to some it happens every single time whenever the Giants can't draft someone the media has opined they want to. Have any of these claims ever been actually been validated?
I find that it's a bit too convenient to believe that the only time of the year the Giants-related media knows what's going on for sure is the most information-sensitive time of the year.
Moton goes before 55 IMO.
There would also be other players in the top 40-45 that could help us, depending how the draft falls. Some team or 2 is very likely to pick a guy a round early or whatever and change the dynamic of the draft.
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Emil, I think the Green Bay offense is centered around the tight end. I think the fact we haven't had a legit tight end has crippled this offense.
Agree on both accounts. I think a real TE allows McAdoo to open up the offense in a manner that he is more comfortable with. I don't even think Howard has to be the guy, it just has to be a legitimate TE.
Watching people ring their hands about giving up 3rd and 4th
round picks is strange. There is a much better than average chance that whoever we draft in those rounds will never play meaningful snaps for the Giants. Look at the history of the 3rd round picks posted earlier!
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
going to absolutely hate it if Reese starts burning multiple picks to move up in the first round. That's just desperate and stupid. What is the success rate for first round picks? 50%? Just stay put, and take one of the following:
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
kinda like how Reese moved up to get Landon Collins in the early 2nd? Trust the GM , Let it play out dude :)
going to absolutely hate it if Reese starts burning multiple picks to move up in the first round. That's just desperate and stupid. What is the success rate for first round picks? 50%? Just stay put, and take one of the following:
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
kinda like how Reese moved up to get Landon Collins in the early 2nd? Trust the GM , Let it play out dude :)
It would be a lot more expensive to move up to get Howard. We gave up our fourth, and a seventh we got from Denver for McManus to get Collins. I also said I'm OK with moving up in the first round as long as Reese doesn't give up more than one day three pick.
RE: Watching people ring their hands about giving up 3rd and 4th
round picks is strange. There is a much better than average chance that whoever we draft in those rounds will never play meaningful snaps for the Giants. Look at the history of the 3rd round picks posted earlier!
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Barry Cofield was a 4th round pick. Mark Bavaro as well. David Diehl a 5th round pick. Don't diminish the value of draft picks. They would have to give up a lot to move up to get Howard.
going to absolutely hate it if Reese starts burning multiple picks to move up in the first round. That's just desperate and stupid. What is the success rate for first round picks? 50%? Just stay put, and take one of the following:
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
kinda like how Reese moved up to get Landon Collins in the early 2nd? Trust the GM , Let it play out dude :)
It would be a lot more expensive to move up to get Howard. We gave up our fourth, and a seventh we got from Denver for McManus to get Collins. I also said I'm OK with moving up in the first round as long as Reese doesn't give up more than one day three pick.
Yea but if they go up an get Howard and he becomes a dynamic top TE in the league and helps lead the team to the playoffs , I'd be ok losing a 3rd or next years 2nd
RE: RE: Watching people ring their hands about giving up 3rd and 4th
round picks is strange. There is a much better than average chance that whoever we draft in those rounds will never play meaningful snaps for the Giants. Look at the history of the 3rd round picks posted earlier!
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Barry Cofield was a 4th round pick. Mark Bavaro as well. David Diehl a 5th round pick. Don't diminish the value of draft picks. They would have to give up a lot to move up to get Howard.
I want to add that I love Howard. I also think Njoku will be a stud. I guess I would rather keep picks and draft Njoku ( if he lasts to 23 )
To move up and grab Landon? No. And nobody cares at this point because he's become a stud and a huge piece to this franchise moving forward. I know that was the 2nd round but if there's an impact player they want, go get him. That said, the only guy I would want the Giants to move up and get in the first is OJ. He can change the whole dynamic on offense.
McCaffery, OBJ, Marshall & Shep would be tough to stop on 3rd down!
It's year four. So I'll stick with has been a disappointment. 7 TD's in three seasons for a guy touted as a red zone difference maker. #10 overall. He'll have a lot of making up to do to justify that pick for the Lions.
lmao what the fuck are you talking about? Ebron is a bust
RE: Does anybody even remember what the Giants gave up
I don't think it's wise to throw up your hands and shrug just because they haven't had success with them.
You should expect your round 3 and 4 players to at least be able to be back ups and situational players.
Not getting anything out of rounds 3 and 4 are why this roster is paper thin. You can't just decide not to make use of them.
Who is throwing up their hands and shrugging? WTF does that even mean?
The whole premise is if the Giants have a player they strongly covet and they believe is unlikely to be there when they pick that being aggressive and moving up to get that player, the player they really want, is a solid strategy.
The fact that 3rd round picks are far more of a crapshoot and Reese has a terrible 3rd round track record make it easier to part with the pick (for those who weren't so willing to begin with). Personally, I don't value the potential of a draft pick vs the strong conviction teams might have on a player as much as some of you.
it's gonna piss a lot of people off whe they trade up...
round picks is strange. There is a much better than average chance that whoever we draft in those rounds will never play meaningful snaps for the Giants. Look at the history of the 3rd round picks posted earlier!
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Barry Cofield was a 4th round pick. Mark Bavaro as well. David Diehl a 5th round pick. Don't diminish the value of draft picks. They would have to give up a lot to move up to get Howard.
ohter 4th rounders: Gary Reasons, Harry Carson, Kevin Belcher, Brandon Jacobs, Keith Hamilton, Lewis Tillman. Billy Taylor.
he'd be a nice player with room to grow into an even better player. He did nothing his first year or two and finally showed something last year. He's OK. Problem is he was picked 10th in a great draft. The Lions passed on franchise players to take Ebron. He's not a bad player. I'd want him on the Giants but he's a bust when you factor in where he was picked. And let's be honest Ebron is unlikely to morph into Gronk this coming season. He might get better but after 3 years it's probably safe to say he is what he is at this point. I'm not even sure he's a good blocker. I doubt it. So he's a decent receiving TE. Lions would do the pick over if they could.
Aside from all the discussion about who the Giants will take in the 1st round, I really want them to draft Miami TE David Njoku. He shined again at his recent Pro Day and there is something about this kid that make teams drool about his long-term upside.
Forget the blocking aspect for his first 1-2 years, he'd be an immediate impact starter as a move-TE in our offense. Imagine teams having to worry about his seam stretching prowess alongside Odell, Marshall, and Shepard. Wow!
RE: it's gonna piss a lot of people off whe they trade up...
Contrary to those that are already trying to talk the likes of Mahomes up into being an Aaron Rodgers like talent, this draft is very QB weak. It's one (completely acceptable) thing to keep the possibility open if somehow BPA matches need/potential enough early on, but actually trading up in the first round for one of these guys, in the situation the team is in, is insanity mixed with desperation that they shouldn't have.
also that TE is not who we are targeting. I think they really like Ellison to do the dirty work and with Marshall, OBJ, Shep and Perkins and maybe AP (Im holding out hope) no need for a pass catching TE. Especially if they are going for it this year. OL, DL is where its at.
I found them on a Chiefs fan blog site linked below. I trust them, it also explains how they determine "success" which is pretty liberal. They view it simply as starting half your games. We all know starting <> success but it's a way to remove the subjectivity from it. So the numbers in terms of true success (meaning a good player) are probably even lower than those shared. Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
I can see a trade up in the 2nd round, but not the first.
gerald everett in round 2
antonio garcia in round 3
Donta Foreman in Rd 2
And Elis got his weapons and the offense will be ranked near the top
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Yep.
this is the scenario I was advocating for, exactly in that range. It would cost the Giants 3rd, but if somehow Howard drops to that range or Njoku is there but whispered to be taken soon, Giants should pounce.
The 2nd round I could see. Especially after hitting paydirt on Landon Collins with this strategy. But it's not a decision you make until you know if 'you're guy' has slid into Day 2.
I also don't agree that the Giants have an "all in" mentality, and will therefore do anything to "win now" because Eli's "window" is closing. Reese isn't going to sacrifice the future, and as someone else noted, Pugh, Richburg, and Fluker are all FAs next year. And even if they ultimately produce, many first round picks don't do so as rookies. They can also get hurt like anyone else.
i agree. the guy seems pro ready too. wouldnt mind it
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
History says that Howard won't go top 10.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
History says that Howard won't go top 10.
eric ebron
I think he gets far more value drafting in the first five rounds in a deep draft than trading up with any of those picks - and given his history - especially with TE - it is a very unlikely target, value wise, to trade up for
so it's fun to talk about but I just don't see it
any draftee - even Howard, as much as the salivary glands are inspired by him, is a move for the future and not an all in now pick
Picking a Manning, a QB, is an all in move for the Giants, not a TE, and there is no Manning in the draft this year
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
I think he gets far more value drafting in the first five rounds in a deep draft than trading up with any of those picks - and given his history - especially with TE - it is a very unlikely target, value wise, to trade up for
so it's fun to talk about but I just don't see it
any draftee - even Howard, as much as the salivary glands are inspired by him, is a move for the future and not an all in now pick
Picking a Manning, a QB, is an all in move for the Giants, not a TE, and there is no Manning in the draft this year
Agreed. I'd rather Reese take Mahomes at #23 than trade more than one day three pick to move up for Howard. And I have no interest in taking Mahomes at #23, although I think the Giants might well do so.
As to trading up, lawd no..Take whatever red chip is there
I think he gets far more value drafting in the first five rounds in a deep draft than trading up with any of those picks - and given his history - especially with TE - it is a very unlikely target, value wise, to trade up for
so it's fun to talk about but I just don't see it
any draftee - even Howard, as much as the salivary glands are inspired by him, is a move for the future and not an all in now pick
Picking a Manning, a QB, is an all in move for the Giants, not a TE, and there is no Manning in the draft this year
Reese has an affinity for play makers over safer players. He's demonstrated this countless times. it's why he drafts players like David Wilson, Ramses Barden (even trading up with a rival to select him) or Jerrell Jernigan - and many more in the top few rounds of the draft.
If there is a play maker in the 16 - 18/20 range I could absolutely see a trade up.
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The only guy I can recall off the top of my head is Winslow.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
History says that Howard won't go top 10.
eric ebron
Vernon Davis
Imagine all the passes that Tye caught last year and got three yards now see Howard with the same catches and in the Redzone.
2016: Darian Thompson S
2015: Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE
2014: Jay Bromley DT
2013: Damontre Moore DE
2012: Jayron Hosley CB
2011: Jerrel Jernigan WR
2010: Chad Jones S
2009: Ramses Barden WR (trade up), Travis Beckum TE
2008: Mario Manningham WR
2007: Jay Alford DT
People overrate draft picks immensely. I read the comments every year after the draft "I love our Uconn WR Geremy Davis. I think he has a chance to start" or "Greg Jones, that guy is a legit NFL linebacker. I'm excited about that pick" and it's a lottery ticket getting one of those guys to actually pan out and start let alone excel.
3rd round isn't much more likely. I posted the success rate from 2004 to 2014 last week, here it is again:
Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
I think that Howard is a star in the making, but the cost to get up to him might be astronomical. You're not getting him for a 3 and 4 plus our 1.
They don't really need quantity as much as they need impact. They signed a lunch pail guy for the offense and will likely draft another but they could really use one more impact player on O and D. Trading up helps that cause.
(Howard is one of the few players I can see our team trading up for.)
I think they will wait until round 2-3 to take a QB. I can't blame them for taking a guy in round 1 but gun to my head, I don't see it. I think they go for the impact player in round 1 either by trade up or standing pat and then they will let the QB dust settle.
Honestly I don't know what the hell they do. Every day I change my mind. I know what I want though. I want a defensive bad ass in round 1 if all things are equal. Then get the TE, RB, OL, CB later on--in no particular order.
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I think they will wait until round 2-3 to take a QB. I can't blame them for taking a guy in round 1 but gun to my head, I don't see it. I think they go for the impact player in round 1 either by trade up or standing pat and then they will let the QB dust settle.
Honestly I don't know what the hell they do. Every day I change my mind. I know what I want though. I want a defensive bad ass in round 1 if all things are equal. Then get the TE, RB, OL, CB later on--in no particular order.
Round 2-3 would not surprise me at all, perhaps one of the QB's we really like will be there anyways. Just looking at the moves we've made this offseason, we're in "win now" mode. Personally, I'm hoping that we come out of this draft with one really good playmaker on offense.
Can't take a QB here.
Can't trade up for a TE there.
Never draft a RB high.
All of this means nothing. All we can go on are what we know to be NYG tendencies. Keep in mind however, this is only year two of the Reese/Mac approach, very little history.
In my own words I would try to best describe NYG philosophy as best marriage of value + need with an eye towards DE, CB, WR.
This year is very exciting because there seem to be a million different things going on at once. FA moves reflect a team that is acknowledging a 2-3 year window with an aging QB. We all know that outside of Hankins, the final pieces to this roster are TE, RB or perhaps another OL.
On the other hand, because you have an aging QB, and a second year HC with an eye towards grooming QBs. You very well might see one taken early.
My gut says round 1 we come away with a TE, RB or QB, perhaps with a trade up.
I could definitely see the Giants selling their entire draft for 2 players that they see as immediate difference makers.
If Howard were to clear the 1st 10, I could see them pulling the trigger to move up.
I expect the quarterbacks to go earlier than is being talked about; they always move up as the draft approaches. That's how you end up with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder getting picked super high.
History says that Howard won't go top 10.
I wish you were right about Howard but 99% of the time where there's smoke there's fire. There's too much good buzz on Howard. He might make it past 10 but not much further in my view. I do agree about the QBs but not all of them will go in the first. I will say two go the rest slide.
(Howard is one of the few players I can see our team trading up for.)
Raven and Bucs love to grab our Targets. And you never know what the Titans will do.
Think of this 2 TE packages with Perkins in the backfield. or our famous 11 package with Howard as a big target. 2 big targets 2 fast in OBJ and Shepard.
I would be psyched if it were Williams of Clemson. That dude is going to be a star in this league.
OL is the elephant in the room (as in: the Giants need another elephant in the room)....
Howard is a projection, but the physical package is a once in a decade package.
In evaluating Howard, people have to realize how strong Bama was. There was no reason to structure an offense around Howard, and even less as the QB was not up to the talent level of the rest of the team.
THANK YOU CHICAGO!!!!! I for one was eternally grateful
Conklin too
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Or they'll get Leonard Floyded again.
THANK YOU CHICAGO!!!!! I for one was eternally grateful
Floyd had a great rookie season, what on Earth are you talking about?
What's so abnormal about this draft? 32 prospects will be selected in the first round, some will succeed, some will fail. Was it a normal draft when Scherff and Flowers went in the top ten or was that an abnormal draft as well? How do you think Ramczyk and Robinson stack up against Scherff and Flowers coming out of school?
I have a 1st round grade on Robinson and Ramczyk (ahead of Howard, Njoku, Charlton, Reddick, and Cunningham, btw) and you don't. But who the hell are we? We won't know what the professionals think until April 27th. And the professionals don't have such a great track record to begin with.
If you break it down by position, in all likelihood, I agree it's for either of the 2 TE's. Howard absolutely would require a significant trade to get and Njoku is probably gone around 20.
It can't be any other position, right? QB, OL, RB, WR, DL, LB, or DB. I don't see it.
We've seen all sorts of draft day trades that are better or worse than the standard trade chart.
We don't know who the Giants may be targeting and at what rounds. People are assuming it's Howard.
He's turning 23 in April. And if you mean "it's year 4" sure, this is his 4th NFL season coming up. Look at the production, it's increased every season. He had more learning to do than they probably realized but he's 22 years old! What 22 year old tight ends in the league currently are catching 60 balls?
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Those 2 go well after 23, and probably in the 2nd round.
And you know this because.....???
What's so abnormal about this draft? 32 prospects will be selected in the first round, some will succeed, some will fail. Was it a normal draft when Scherff and Flowers went in the top ten or was that an abnormal draft as well? How do you think Ramczyk and Robinson stack up against Scherff and Flowers coming out of school?
I have a 1st round grade on Robinson and Ramczyk (ahead of Howard, Njoku, Charlton, Reddick, and Cunningham, btw) and you don't. But who the hell are we? We won't know what the professionals think until April 27th. And the professionals don't have such a great track record to begin with.
Milton, you've always been one of my favorite posters. You remain true to your convictions and don't yield ground to the BBI chorus.
Haason Reddick.
I think everyone is overthinking this draft. Giants need to upgrade OL. Period. Our two tackles are the fatal flaw on this roster.
I'm not convinced they will go for a TE in the first let alone trade up for one.
Trade up? Possibly, but not for Howard.
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It's year four. So I'll stick with has been a disappointment. 7 TD's in three seasons for a guy touted as a red zone difference maker. #10 overall. He'll have a lot of making up to do to justify that pick for the Lions.
He's turning 23 in April. And if you mean "it's year 4" sure, this is his 4th NFL season coming up. Look at the production, it's increased every season. He had more learning to do than they probably realized but he's 22 years old! What 22 year old tight ends in the league currently are catching 60 balls?
Apply said logic to 20 yr old rookie starter, 21 yr old second year starter and 22 yr old soon to be 3rd yr starter LT Flowers, E.
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In comment 13411017 David B. said:
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Or they'll get Leonard Floyded again.
THANK YOU CHICAGO!!!!! I for one was eternally grateful
Floyd had a great rookie season, what on Earth are you talking about?
I don't think he fits this defense, and I'm not alone.
I think Howard or Njoku are the players they would like or one of the really good LBs or CBs.
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I think the player they crave is Howard.
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Emil, I think the Green Bay offense is centered around the tight end. I think the fact we haven't had a legit tight end has crippled this offense.
LOL, yeah, "don't be shocked if they trade up in the first or second round"
crazy smokescreen there. Teams will be scrambling to decode this one.
and like last year when they were like an open book with their affinity for Conklin and Floyd hopefully, if they really did like both players, they aren't as open with their thoughts.
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In comment 13410786 Eric from BBI said:
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I think the player they crave is Howard.
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Emil, I think the Green Bay offense is centered around the tight end. I think the fact we haven't had a legit tight end has crippled this offense.
Eric, don't you think it will take at least the 2nd rounder to move up to get Howard? Can't Njoku be an upgrade at TE and checks enough boxes to be the target?
I hope your're right... and i hope they make a move to get him. Offense would be unstoppable.
Haason Reddick.
Thanks for the correction professor.
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LOL, yeah, "don't be shocked if they trade up in the first or second round"
crazy smokescreen there. Teams will be scrambling to decode this one.
and like last year when they were like an open book with their affinity for Conklin and Floyd hopefully, if they really did like both players, they aren't as open with their thoughts.
Guesses from beat writers are all it takes for people to believe that the Giants were crushed or hoodwinked in the draft. According to some it happens every single time whenever the Giants can't draft someone the media has opined they want to. Have any of these claims ever been actually been validated?
I find that it's a bit too convenient to believe that the only time of the year the Giants-related media knows what's going on for sure is the most information-sensitive time of the year.
There would also be other players in the top 40-45 that could help us, depending how the draft falls. Some team or 2 is very likely to pick a guy a round early or whatever and change the dynamic of the draft.
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In comment 13410786 Eric from BBI said:
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I think the player they crave is Howard.
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Emil, I think the Green Bay offense is centered around the tight end. I think the fact we haven't had a legit tight end has crippled this offense.
Agree on both accounts. I think a real TE allows McAdoo to open up the offense in a manner that he is more comfortable with. I don't even think Howard has to be the guy, it just has to be a legitimate TE.
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
kinda like how Reese moved up to get Landon Collins in the early 2nd? Trust the GM , Let it play out dude :)
they'd likely have to trade up too high for him say #10 or so
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going to absolutely hate it if Reese starts burning multiple picks to move up in the first round. That's just desperate and stupid. What is the success rate for first round picks? 50%? Just stay put, and take one of the following:
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
kinda like how Reese moved up to get Landon Collins in the early 2nd? Trust the GM , Let it play out dude :)
It would be a lot more expensive to move up to get Howard. We gave up our fourth, and a seventh we got from Denver for McManus to get Collins. I also said I'm OK with moving up in the first round as long as Reese doesn't give up more than one day three pick.
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Barry Cofield was a 4th round pick. Mark Bavaro as well. David Diehl a 5th round pick. Don't diminish the value of draft picks. They would have to give up a lot to move up to get Howard.
You should expect your round 3 and 4 players to at least be able to be back ups and situational players.
Not getting anything out of rounds 3 and 4 are why this roster is paper thin. You can't just decide not to make use of them.
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In comment 13410859 AcidTest said:
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going to absolutely hate it if Reese starts burning multiple picks to move up in the first round. That's just desperate and stupid. What is the success rate for first round picks? 50%? Just stay put, and take one of the following:
Njoku.
Cunningham.
Bolles.
kinda like how Reese moved up to get Landon Collins in the early 2nd? Trust the GM , Let it play out dude :)
It would be a lot more expensive to move up to get Howard. We gave up our fourth, and a seventh we got from Denver for McManus to get Collins. I also said I'm OK with moving up in the first round as long as Reese doesn't give up more than one day three pick.
Yea but if they go up an get Howard and he becomes a dynamic top TE in the league and helps lead the team to the playoffs , I'd be ok losing a 3rd or next years 2nd
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round picks is strange. There is a much better than average chance that whoever we draft in those rounds will never play meaningful snaps for the Giants. Look at the history of the 3rd round picks posted earlier!
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Barry Cofield was a 4th round pick. Mark Bavaro as well. David Diehl a 5th round pick. Don't diminish the value of draft picks. They would have to give up a lot to move up to get Howard.
I want to add that I love Howard. I also think Njoku will be a stud. I guess I would rather keep picks and draft Njoku ( if he lasts to 23 )
lmao what the fuck are you talking about? Ebron is a bust
You should expect your round 3 and 4 players to at least be able to be back ups and situational players.
Not getting anything out of rounds 3 and 4 are why this roster is paper thin. You can't just decide not to make use of them.
Who is throwing up their hands and shrugging? WTF does that even mean?
The whole premise is if the Giants have a player they strongly covet and they believe is unlikely to be there when they pick that being aggressive and moving up to get that player, the player they really want, is a solid strategy.
The fact that 3rd round picks are far more of a crapshoot and Reese has a terrible 3rd round track record make it easier to part with the pick (for those who weren't so willing to begin with). Personally, I don't value the potential of a draft pick vs the strong conviction teams might have on a player as much as some of you.
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round picks is strange. There is a much better than average chance that whoever we draft in those rounds will never play meaningful snaps for the Giants. Look at the history of the 3rd round picks posted earlier!
You don't give them away, but if they have a conviction on a guy like Howard, go get him.
Barry Cofield was a 4th round pick. Mark Bavaro as well. David Diehl a 5th round pick. Don't diminish the value of draft picks. They would have to give up a lot to move up to get Howard.
ohter 4th rounders: Gary Reasons, Harry Carson, Kevin Belcher, Brandon Jacobs, Keith Hamilton, Lewis Tillman. Billy Taylor.
a trade up for a QB would spiral this site into oblivion
Forget the blocking aspect for his first 1-2 years, he'd be an immediate impact starter as a move-TE in our offense. Imagine teams having to worry about his seam stretching prowess alongside Odell, Marshall, and Shepard. Wow!
It should.
Contrary to those that are already trying to talk the likes of Mahomes up into being an Aaron Rodgers like talent, this draft is very QB weak. It's one (completely acceptable) thing to keep the possibility open if somehow BPA matches need/potential enough early on, but actually trading up in the first round for one of these guys, in the situation the team is in, is insanity mixed with desperation that they shouldn't have.
I found them on a Chiefs fan blog site linked below. I trust them, it also explains how they determine "success" which is pretty liberal. They view it simply as starting half your games. We all know starting <> success but it's a way to remove the subjectivity from it. So the numbers in terms of true success (meaning a good player) are probably even lower than those shared.
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 13410786 Eric from BBI said:
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I think the player they crave is Howard.
Eric, I think he is a generational talent a the position. A complete TE in a world where there are very few of those.
Can you elaborate why you think they crave Howard?
Emil, I think the Green Bay offense is centered around the tight end. I think the fact we haven't had a legit tight end has crippled this offense.
+1 Exactly what I was thinking.