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The Giants should extend OBJ right now

Giantsfan79 : 4/12/2017 11:10 am
I made this point earlier today in a discussion that didn't take off. Being bored at work for the moment I did a little research and wish to present my findings.

Once the Giants exercise their option on OBJ he will be under contract for 2 more seasons, at which point he will be a UFA subject to the franchise tag. I went back and looked at the details for the top wide receivers 2nd contracts.

**I excluded Antonio Brown b/c he was a 6th round draft pick which changes the finances completely. He also cashed in on this third contract. The players below are like OBJ all first rounders.

AJ Green - 4 years/$60 million - $15 million signing bonus/$32.75 million guaranteed. He was entering the final year of his deal, so if we sign OBJ next off-season this would be a baseline.

Julio Jones - 5/$71.25M - $12M SB/$47M G. He was also entering the final year of his deal.

Dez - 5/$70M - $20M SB/$45M G. He is the opposite in that he played out his rookie contract and signed this contract in the same off-season he was franchised.

So waiting another year to extend OBJ means at least $60 million on a 4 year deal.

Tavon Austin - unlike the other players he signed his extension with two years left on his rookie deal, the same as OBJ has now. 4 years/$42M - 28.5M Guaranteed. (the contract doesn't have a traditional signing bonus with a series a guaranteed roster bonuses instead but the guaranteed money is confirmed)

Obviously OBJ is better than Tavon Austin, but if Austin sets a floor, if the Giants came to OBJ and said 4 years - somewhere in the 50s, with 35ish million guaranteed. That would be a fair market offer. That would also save the Giants $5 to $10 million over the next four years vs. waiting until next offseason. That could be the difference between resigning Pugh vs allowing him to walk.

no we shouldn't  
UConn4523 : 4/12/2017 11:13 am : link
we can control him for another 2 years without having to pay him a massive amount of guaranteed money. Why on earth would he accept a contract now anyway?
RE: no we shouldn't  
Big Blue '56 : 4/12/2017 11:18 am : link
In comment 13425001 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
we can control him for another 2 years without having to pay him a massive amount of guaranteed money. Why on earth would he accept a contract now anyway?


And he has to want to be extended now, in the first place
So its the risk of locking up OBJ vs signing Pugh.  
WideRight : 4/12/2017 11:21 am : link
OBJ is still maturing into our leadership expectations. Its fair to say he has a way to go. Whether he gets there or not is a much bigger risk than replacing Pugh with market-level talent.
a few reasons  
Giantsfan79 : 4/12/2017 11:22 am : link
he gets guaranteed money right now vs injury. If someone said to you $35 million right now, yes if you wait a year or two you will get more money for sure. But a) what if you get hurt, b) what if you stop producing c) what if someone else (like Eli) gets hurt and that stops you from producing. Do you take the sure money now or bet on yourself?

Also if you take the sure money now you get to your 3rd contract one year younger then you would otherwise. That might be worth millions then.

For the team they get some cost certainty in that they buy out the first two free agent years for below top of the market value. It saves money over the longterm. With players like Pugh, Richburg, Kennard, Collins all coming up saving that money could mean keeping more of the core together.
You get an F for failure to research the cap  
rich in DC : 4/12/2017 11:24 am : link
The whole point of extending OBJ is to allow the Giants to kick the cap hit out to the point where Eli's contract comes off the cap. Eli takes about 12% of the cap. With no Eli, that means that the Giants have no problem paying OBJ top $$.

There is no question that IF OBJ continues the level of production that he has set for the next two years, he can legitimately asked to be the top paid WR in the NFL. That COULD mean $20M per over 6-7 years, with a $50-60M SB (or a somewhat smaller SB plus a big roster bonus year 2).

However, those numbers are literally impossible UNLESS Eli is no longer on the cap.

Eli's cap hit continues through the 2019 season- in other words, 3 more seasons. BY extending OBJ for 2 of those seasons, when you sign him to that massive extension, the team only needs to give a minimum salary year 1 to give a low cap # (OBJ won't care as he gets a TON of $$ up front via bonuses).

THIS is what you missed. Without that analysis- fail.
I should also add  
rich in DC : 4/12/2017 11:30 am : link
That it is also possible that the Giants COULD pull a Romo with Eli at the end of the 2018 season and cut Eli and designate him a post June 1 cut. In that way, the Giants would get $16M after June 1 and have a $6.5M cap hit, which would be manageable.

Either way- play out Eli's deal or cut in 2 seasons, the OBJ extension CANNOT realistically be done until Eli's cap hit is removed.
Wow, Rich.  
Klaatu : 4/12/2017 11:31 am : link
You sure are strict. :)
I expect them to extend him this offseason...  
Milton : 4/12/2017 11:40 am : link
I know that's what I would recommend if I were OBJ's agent. His salary is $1.8M in 2017 and roughly $8M in the 2018 option year. But OBJ will want to be the highest paid WR in the league, currently the $68M 4-year extension that Antonio Brown signed.

If the Giants were to give OBJ a four year extension for the exact same money Brown received, the resulting contract would be for six years and total $78M. The guaranteed money would be in the $35m-$45M range. This is the offer the Giants should put on the table. It's up to him to accept it or reject.
star players make star money  
UConn4523 : 4/12/2017 11:45 am : link
some Giants fans seem to think that somehow our stars will act otherwise. I personally don't see it and it would be monumentally stupid for Beckham to shortchange himself, IMO.

We also don't know what the market will be in 2-3 years and heading into the expiration of the current CBA could make teams very wary of dolling out potentially franchise breaking contracts without knowing what the cap structure will be like beyond 2020. Maybe that's thinking too far ahead but it is something to consider.
RE: So its the risk of locking up OBJ vs signing Pugh.  
chuckydee9 : 4/12/2017 12:02 pm : link
In comment 13425011 WideRight said:
Quote:
OBJ is still maturing into our leadership expectations. Its fair to say he has a way to go. Whether he gets there or not is a much bigger risk than replacing Pugh with market-level talent.


If you are comparing Pugh to OBJ then there is no point in having a discussion... there hasn't been a WR of OBJ caliber hitting the market since Moss.. Lets not be stupid and make him feel unwanted.
RE: You get an F for failure to research the cap  
Giantsfan79 : 4/12/2017 12:02 pm : link
In comment 13425017 rich in DC said:
Quote:
The whole point of extending OBJ is to allow the Giants to kick the cap hit out to the point where Eli's contract comes off the cap. Eli takes about 12% of the cap. With no Eli, that means that the Giants have no problem paying OBJ top $$.

There is no question that IF OBJ continues the level of production that he has set for the next two years, he can legitimately asked to be the top paid WR in the NFL. That COULD mean $20M per over 6-7 years, with a $50-60M SB (or a somewhat smaller SB plus a big roster bonus year 2).

However, those numbers are literally impossible UNLESS Eli is no longer on the cap.

Eli's cap hit continues through the 2019 season- in other words, 3 more seasons. BY extending OBJ for 2 of those seasons, when you sign him to that massive extension, the team only needs to give a minimum salary year 1 to give a low cap # (OBJ won't care as he gets a TON of $$ up front via bonuses).

THIS is what you missed. Without that analysis- fail.


Maybe I get a C+, my only GM experience is on internet message boards. There are a few flaws in your logic however. While I concede that OBJs cap number would likely go up this year, relative to him not signing an extension, you have to acknowledge that over the course of the next 4 years his number would be lower. Thus saving money against the cap that can be used elsewhere.

Now if you are concerned that cap dollars are tight right now and we don't want to go pissing that away when we don't have to, fine you be you like that. But keep in mind that can still be minimized by pushing more of the guaranteed money off toward the back end of the contract. Since OBJ is due to make 1.8 this year, that could easily be cut to .8M in year one, saving money in the short term.
People were having these same thoughts with JPP early in his career  
rasbutant : 4/12/2017 12:04 pm : link
let it play out.
RE: RE: So its the risk of locking up OBJ vs signing Pugh.  
Giantsfan79 : 4/12/2017 12:04 pm : link
In comment 13425078 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:
In comment 13425011 WideRight said:


Quote:


OBJ is still maturing into our leadership expectations. Its fair to say he has a way to go. Whether he gets there or not is a much bigger risk than replacing Pugh with market-level talent.



If you are comparing Pugh to OBJ then there is no point in having a discussion... there hasn't been a WR of OBJ caliber hitting the market since Moss.. Lets not be stupid and make him feel unwanted.


No, I'm comparing Pugh to a guard who has in injury history. For a few weeks last year he was also playing as the top ranked guard in the league so he's capable of being a top 5 guard. He's going to cost money to resign and prices these days ain't cheap.
RE: People were having these same thoughts with JPP early in his career  
Milton : 4/12/2017 12:26 pm : link
In comment 13425084 rasbutant said:
Quote:
let it play out.
Each situation is unique. If ever there was a 1st round pick who deserved an extension after three years (when it is first allowable under the new CBA), it's OBJ. He has had three Pro Bowl seasons in a row. He has a right to demand an extension. And like I said, if I were his agent I wouldn't recommend it. Why risk a catastrophic injury for $1.8M when a new contract can get you $40M guaranteed?

It's in the interest of both sides to get it done this offseason, but mostly in OBJ's interest. If OBJ doesn't demand an extension, the Giants will be perfectly willing to let him play on his $1.8M salary. But if he does demand an extension, it will be in their interest to keep him happy and also to be negotiating from a position of strength.
Yikes!!!  
Milton : 4/12/2017 12:30 pm : link
If I were his agent I would recommend it!

Oy.
You lost me at Tavon Austin..  
est1986 : 4/12/2017 12:40 pm : link
.
Pay him as soon as possible  
Glover : 4/12/2017 1:22 pm : link
They should definitely get that done next offseason. Antonio Brown's second contract was somewhat of a surprise, showing Wallace that they valued AB more. That was incredibly smart. He's the WR version of Brady, 195th overall, but I digress. The Giants need to let Beckham know they value him. Cant be playing that franchise tag BS with him.
RE: Pay him as soon as possible  
Milton : 4/12/2017 1:26 pm : link
In comment 13425233 Glover said:
Quote:
They should definitely get that done next offseason. Antonio Brown's second contract was somewhat of a surprise, showing Wallace that they valued AB more.
They did the same thing when they gave Hines Ward a second contract over Plaxico Burress.
Pugh?  
Motley Two : 4/12/2017 1:28 pm : link
Maybe I've missed something, but I'm not sure what he's done where I'd remotely even think about or consider his future with the Giants when it comes to putting together a future deal for OBJ.

That was my point...  
WideRight : 4/12/2017 1:31 pm : link
Pugh should not be a concern when talking about big money moves the Giants will have to make with their curent and future stars
RE: RE: RE: So its the risk of locking up OBJ vs signing Pugh.  
chuckydee9 : 4/12/2017 1:34 pm : link
In comment 13425085 Giantsfan79 said:
Quote:
In comment 13425078 chuckydee9 said:


Quote:


In comment 13425011 WideRight said:


Quote:


OBJ is still maturing into our leadership expectations. Its fair to say he has a way to go. Whether he gets there or not is a much bigger risk than replacing Pugh with market-level talent.



If you are comparing Pugh to OBJ then there is no point in having a discussion... there hasn't been a WR of OBJ caliber hitting the market since Moss.. Lets not be stupid and make him feel unwanted.



No, I'm comparing Pugh to a guard who has in injury history. For a few weeks last year he was also playing as the top ranked guard in the league so he's capable of being a top 5 guard. He's going to cost money to resign and prices these days ain't cheap.


Again there is a different between playing as a to 5 guard for a few weeks in a 4 year career than being the all time leader in receiving TD per game.. if we wait on OBJ to be Franchise tagged he will cost us 18 to 20 mil per year..

Typo.. it should've said  
chuckydee9 : 4/12/2017 1:36 pm : link
playing as a top 5 guard for a few weeks
RE: RE: You get an F for failure to research the cap  
rich in DC : 4/12/2017 3:26 pm : link
In comment 13425080 Giantsfan79 said:
Quote:
In comment 13425017 rich in DC said:


Quote:


The whole point of extending OBJ is to allow the Giants to kick the cap hit out to the point where Eli's contract comes off the cap. Eli takes about 12% of the cap. With no Eli, that means that the Giants have no problem paying OBJ top $$.

There is no question that IF OBJ continues the level of production that he has set for the next two years, he can legitimately asked to be the top paid WR in the NFL. That COULD mean $20M per over 6-7 years, with a $50-60M SB (or a somewhat smaller SB plus a big roster bonus year 2).

However, those numbers are literally impossible UNLESS Eli is no longer on the cap.

Eli's cap hit continues through the 2019 season- in other words, 3 more seasons. BY extending OBJ for 2 of those seasons, when you sign him to that massive extension, the team only needs to give a minimum salary year 1 to give a low cap # (OBJ won't care as he gets a TON of $$ up front via bonuses).

THIS is what you missed. Without that analysis- fail.



Maybe I get a C+, my only GM experience is on internet message boards. There are a few flaws in your logic however. While I concede that OBJs cap number would likely go up this year, relative to him not signing an extension, you have to acknowledge that over the course of the next 4 years his number would be lower. Thus saving money against the cap that can be used elsewhere.

Now if you are concerned that cap dollars are tight right now and we don't want to go pissing that away when we don't have to, fine you be you like that. But keep in mind that can still be minimized by pushing more of the guaranteed money off toward the back end of the contract. Since OBJ is due to make 1.8 this year, that could easily be cut to .8M in year one, saving money in the short term.


After all of the above you STILL don't get it.

Let me make this easy to understand. The Giants CANNOT fit the type of extension OBJ will need in order to sign until Eli is off the cap. Eli is on the cap until after the 2019 season. The Giants CANNOT extend OBJ until at least the last season of Eli's deal- as they will NOT be able to minimize the cap hit for more than the first year of the deal- or OBJ's contract becomes unmanageable for the cap.

If you feel slighted, oh well- you were the one posting about how you did "research" on how this would help the Giants without even having any comprehension of the cap impact.
No they shouldn't  
AnnapolisMike : 4/12/2017 4:47 pm : link
And I will point to Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks as exhibit A and B. One signed a huge contract and promptly destroyed his knee... The other never stayed healthy enough to get to that point. There were many a thread debating the pros and cons of signing each of them. They are both effectively out of football.

If you give him a huge deal early and he blows out his knee... The Giants are screwed. And I am not even considering whether or not he is worth allocating Manning money too.

Just let it play out. Alot can change in a year or two.
RE: RE: RE: You get an F for failure to research the cap  
Milton : 4/12/2017 10:44 pm : link
In comment 13425428 rich in DC said:
Quote:
Let me make this easy to understand. The Giants CANNOT fit the type of extension OBJ will need in order to sign until Eli is off the cap.
Let me make this easy to understand: sure they can.
RE: No they shouldn't  
Milton : 4/12/2017 11:02 pm : link
In comment 13425584 AnnapolisMike said:
Quote:
Just let it play out. Alot can change in a year or two.
If OBJ is fine letting it play out, no problem. But I expect him to push hard for a new contract now for the reasons you just explained. And the Giants won't want to get into a public pissing match with him over it. Especially when he has a perfectly good argument for making the demand. If ever there was a justification for a hold out, OBJ is it.

He signed a rookie contract that was for the most part non-negotiable given the new CBA. And that same CBA doesn't allow for a renegotiation until after three seasons. But the three seasons are up and they were all of the Pro Bowl variety. So there is no excuse for not negotiating an extension. It just comes down to the numbers. If they make him a reasonable offer that is in line with the top-salaried receivers in the league and he turns it down, that's on him. But if the Giants refuse to negotiate, they are in the wrong.

Would you risk injury over $1.8M if you deserved $35M-$45M guaranteed. Precedent is on OBJ's side. How he chooses to handle it is up to him and his agent.

p.s.--And rich in DC is absolutely mistaken. The Giants have the cap room to give OBJ an extension. It would be a four year extension on a contract with two years still left on it, so the total years on the deal would be six.
I will not pretend to be a cap expert  
Tuckrule : 4/13/2017 4:57 am : link
But what I've learned and seen shows me if teams want a player they can manipulate the cap and sign that player. Al the talk of we don't have the room we can't extend it means nothing. That's why these guys get paid to figure this shit out and make it happen
No harm in bringing OBJ in and  
mrvax : 4/13/2017 9:42 am : link
asking him what he'd like to do. Explain to him the current numbers and that the Giants would like to keep him for a long time. Ask what would work for him and show how the team could benefit by starting to pay him much more now rather than record setting numbers later.

Maybe OBJ would like more now as opposed to waiting a few years and settling on an unknown team. You can't hurt anything by just asking.
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