I made this point earlier today in a discussion that didn't take off. Being bored at work for the moment I did a little research and wish to present my findings.
Once the Giants exercise their option on OBJ he will be under contract for 2 more seasons, at which point he will be a UFA subject to the franchise tag. I went back and looked at the details for the top wide receivers 2nd contracts.
**I excluded Antonio Brown b/c he was a 6th round draft pick which changes the finances completely. He also cashed in on this third contract. The players below are like OBJ all first rounders.
AJ Green - 4 years/$60 million - $15 million signing bonus/$32.75 million guaranteed. He was entering the final year of his deal, so if we sign OBJ next off-season this would be a baseline.
Julio Jones - 5/$71.25M - $12M SB/$47M G. He was also entering the final year of his deal.
Dez - 5/$70M - $20M SB/$45M G. He is the opposite in that he played out his rookie contract and signed this contract in the same off-season he was franchised.
So waiting another year to extend OBJ means at least $60 million on a 4 year deal.
Tavon Austin - unlike the other players he signed his extension with two years left on his rookie deal, the same as OBJ has now. 4 years/$42M - 28.5M Guaranteed. (the contract doesn't have a traditional signing bonus with a series a guaranteed roster bonuses instead but the guaranteed money is confirmed)
Obviously OBJ is better than Tavon Austin, but if Austin sets a floor, if the Giants came to OBJ and said 4 years - somewhere in the 50s, with 35ish million guaranteed. That would be a fair market offer. That would also save the Giants $5 to $10 million over the next four years vs. waiting until next offseason. That could be the difference between resigning Pugh vs allowing him to walk.
And he has to want to be extended now, in the first place
Also if you take the sure money now you get to your 3rd contract one year younger then you would otherwise. That might be worth millions then.
For the team they get some cost certainty in that they buy out the first two free agent years for below top of the market value. It saves money over the longterm. With players like Pugh, Richburg, Kennard, Collins all coming up saving that money could mean keeping more of the core together.
There is no question that IF OBJ continues the level of production that he has set for the next two years, he can legitimately asked to be the top paid WR in the NFL. That COULD mean $20M per over 6-7 years, with a $50-60M SB (or a somewhat smaller SB plus a big roster bonus year 2).
However, those numbers are literally impossible UNLESS Eli is no longer on the cap.
Eli's cap hit continues through the 2019 season- in other words, 3 more seasons. BY extending OBJ for 2 of those seasons, when you sign him to that massive extension, the team only needs to give a minimum salary year 1 to give a low cap # (OBJ won't care as he gets a TON of $$ up front via bonuses).
THIS is what you missed. Without that analysis- fail.
Either way- play out Eli's deal or cut in 2 seasons, the OBJ extension CANNOT realistically be done until Eli's cap hit is removed.
If the Giants were to give OBJ a four year extension for the exact same money Brown received, the resulting contract would be for six years and total $78M. The guaranteed money would be in the $35m-$45M range. This is the offer the Giants should put on the table. It's up to him to accept it or reject.
We also don't know what the market will be in 2-3 years and heading into the expiration of the current CBA could make teams very wary of dolling out potentially franchise breaking contracts without knowing what the cap structure will be like beyond 2020. Maybe that's thinking too far ahead but it is something to consider.
If you are comparing Pugh to OBJ then there is no point in having a discussion... there hasn't been a WR of OBJ caliber hitting the market since Moss.. Lets not be stupid and make him feel unwanted.
There is no question that IF OBJ continues the level of production that he has set for the next two years, he can legitimately asked to be the top paid WR in the NFL. That COULD mean $20M per over 6-7 years, with a $50-60M SB (or a somewhat smaller SB plus a big roster bonus year 2).
However, those numbers are literally impossible UNLESS Eli is no longer on the cap.
Eli's cap hit continues through the 2019 season- in other words, 3 more seasons. BY extending OBJ for 2 of those seasons, when you sign him to that massive extension, the team only needs to give a minimum salary year 1 to give a low cap # (OBJ won't care as he gets a TON of $$ up front via bonuses).
THIS is what you missed. Without that analysis- fail.
Maybe I get a C+, my only GM experience is on internet message boards. There are a few flaws in your logic however. While I concede that OBJs cap number would likely go up this year, relative to him not signing an extension, you have to acknowledge that over the course of the next 4 years his number would be lower. Thus saving money against the cap that can be used elsewhere.
Now if you are concerned that cap dollars are tight right now and we don't want to go pissing that away when we don't have to, fine you be you like that. But keep in mind that can still be minimized by pushing more of the guaranteed money off toward the back end of the contract. Since OBJ is due to make 1.8 this year, that could easily be cut to .8M in year one, saving money in the short term.
Quote:
OBJ is still maturing into our leadership expectations. Its fair to say he has a way to go. Whether he gets there or not is a much bigger risk than replacing Pugh with market-level talent.
If you are comparing Pugh to OBJ then there is no point in having a discussion... there hasn't been a WR of OBJ caliber hitting the market since Moss.. Lets not be stupid and make him feel unwanted.
No, I'm comparing Pugh to a guard who has in injury history. For a few weeks last year he was also playing as the top ranked guard in the league so he's capable of being a top 5 guard. He's going to cost money to resign and prices these days ain't cheap.
It's in the interest of both sides to get it done this offseason, but mostly in OBJ's interest. If OBJ doesn't demand an extension, the Giants will be perfectly willing to let him play on his $1.8M salary. But if he does demand an extension, it will be in their interest to keep him happy and also to be negotiating from a position of strength.
Oy.
Quote:
In comment 13425011 WideRight said:
Quote:
OBJ is still maturing into our leadership expectations. Its fair to say he has a way to go. Whether he gets there or not is a much bigger risk than replacing Pugh with market-level talent.
If you are comparing Pugh to OBJ then there is no point in having a discussion... there hasn't been a WR of OBJ caliber hitting the market since Moss.. Lets not be stupid and make him feel unwanted.
No, I'm comparing Pugh to a guard who has in injury history. For a few weeks last year he was also playing as the top ranked guard in the league so he's capable of being a top 5 guard. He's going to cost money to resign and prices these days ain't cheap.
Again there is a different between playing as a to 5 guard for a few weeks in a 4 year career than being the all time leader in receiving TD per game.. if we wait on OBJ to be Franchise tagged he will cost us 18 to 20 mil per year..
Quote:
The whole point of extending OBJ is to allow the Giants to kick the cap hit out to the point where Eli's contract comes off the cap. Eli takes about 12% of the cap. With no Eli, that means that the Giants have no problem paying OBJ top $$.
There is no question that IF OBJ continues the level of production that he has set for the next two years, he can legitimately asked to be the top paid WR in the NFL. That COULD mean $20M per over 6-7 years, with a $50-60M SB (or a somewhat smaller SB plus a big roster bonus year 2).
However, those numbers are literally impossible UNLESS Eli is no longer on the cap.
Eli's cap hit continues through the 2019 season- in other words, 3 more seasons. BY extending OBJ for 2 of those seasons, when you sign him to that massive extension, the team only needs to give a minimum salary year 1 to give a low cap # (OBJ won't care as he gets a TON of $$ up front via bonuses).
THIS is what you missed. Without that analysis- fail.
Maybe I get a C+, my only GM experience is on internet message boards. There are a few flaws in your logic however. While I concede that OBJs cap number would likely go up this year, relative to him not signing an extension, you have to acknowledge that over the course of the next 4 years his number would be lower. Thus saving money against the cap that can be used elsewhere.
Now if you are concerned that cap dollars are tight right now and we don't want to go pissing that away when we don't have to, fine you be you like that. But keep in mind that can still be minimized by pushing more of the guaranteed money off toward the back end of the contract. Since OBJ is due to make 1.8 this year, that could easily be cut to .8M in year one, saving money in the short term.
After all of the above you STILL don't get it.
Let me make this easy to understand. The Giants CANNOT fit the type of extension OBJ will need in order to sign until Eli is off the cap. Eli is on the cap until after the 2019 season. The Giants CANNOT extend OBJ until at least the last season of Eli's deal- as they will NOT be able to minimize the cap hit for more than the first year of the deal- or OBJ's contract becomes unmanageable for the cap.
If you feel slighted, oh well- you were the one posting about how you did "research" on how this would help the Giants without even having any comprehension of the cap impact.
If you give him a huge deal early and he blows out his knee... The Giants are screwed. And I am not even considering whether or not he is worth allocating Manning money too.
Just let it play out. Alot can change in a year or two.
He signed a rookie contract that was for the most part non-negotiable given the new CBA. And that same CBA doesn't allow for a renegotiation until after three seasons. But the three seasons are up and they were all of the Pro Bowl variety. So there is no excuse for not negotiating an extension. It just comes down to the numbers. If they make him a reasonable offer that is in line with the top-salaried receivers in the league and he turns it down, that's on him. But if the Giants refuse to negotiate, they are in the wrong.
Would you risk injury over $1.8M if you deserved $35M-$45M guaranteed. Precedent is on OBJ's side. How he chooses to handle it is up to him and his agent.
p.s.--And rich in DC is absolutely mistaken. The Giants have the cap room to give OBJ an extension. It would be a four year extension on a contract with two years still left on it, so the total years on the deal would be six.
Maybe OBJ would like more now as opposed to waiting a few years and settling on an unknown team. You can't hurt anything by just asking.