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Football Outsiders Not Feeling This Year's Giants Edition

gidiefor : Mod : 4/12/2017 12:07 pm
Quote:
It's only April, and the NFL Draft is still to come, but Football Outsiders is not feeling this year's edition of the Giants. The analytics site projects the Giants to miss the playoffs with an 8-8 record this coming season, according to its early predictions published on ESPN.com.


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Kratch: Will 2017 Giants overtake Cowboys in NFC East? Football Outsiders says ... - ( New Window )
Giants won a lot of close games  
Vanzetti : 4/12/2017 12:17 pm : link
and then were beaten fairly bad in a bunch of their losses (Minny, GB twice, Pitt)

So, it is actually fairly predictable that a site like Football Outsiders will have them regress to the mean
These predictions are always dumb  
gmen9892 : 4/12/2017 12:36 pm : link
Without knowing who we draft, they are making predictions on teams that are not complete. They dont take into account any player regressions or players that get make the leap forward. Much ado about nothing.
This is Somewhat Concerning  
Suburbanites : 4/12/2017 12:58 pm : link
In that this isn't just some typical run of the mill football blog. Aaron Schantz may well be the most brilliant and unbiased mind out there. FO uses a series of algorithms that have proven to be credible and bias proof (his formulas are also readily available for inspection). And given the level of accuracy and objectivity Mr. Schantz and team have displayed over the years the Giants will really need to nail this draft. At this point all I can do is keep praying.
It's not a crazy take  
kash94 : 4/12/2017 1:09 pm : link
IMO. Giants were 12th in the NFL and 7th in the NFC in point differential. However, a few things make optimistic.

1- The rest of the division has not improved or even regressed this offseason. Skins have all the off the field issues, have not made huge improvements to their '16 weaknesses, and lost both their starting WR. Eagles have improved but are still in rebuilding mode. Dallas has lost 4 starters on defense I believe and two starting O-linemen as well.

2- Giants will have most of their 2nd ranked defense back next year, with really no key contributors except maybe Hankins leaving.

3- If one really watched a few Giants games last year, the Giants would get super conservative on the offensive side at the end of games because of how good the defense was.

4- Giants were not blown out by any teams in the regular season last year.

So we were 11-5 with a mediocre offense  
BillT : 4/12/2017 1:46 pm : link
We return the key plays to our D, add players to our O and have a very good 2016 draft class entering their 2nd year but we're going to lose 3 more games than last year. This with our NFCE rivals doing nothing special (or certainly no better than we did) so far and the Cowboys clearly losing talent.

I'll take my chances.
And if Mr. Schantz is so accurate and objective  
BillT : 4/12/2017 1:49 pm : link
Did he project us to have 11 wins last year. No. No, he didn't.
By how much did the NYG exceed their FO prognosis last year?  
The_Boss : 4/12/2017 1:49 pm : link
I'm pretty certain they didn't have them anywhere near double digit wins.
They're expecting a regression to the mean  
David in LA : 4/12/2017 1:51 pm : link
.
IMO Eli Manning is the key  
NikkiMac : 4/12/2017 1:51 pm : link
He has to play well, less INTS and less fumbles ,he has the pieces and I'm sure a few more on the way ....Ithink he has it in him !
Well, to be clear  
mikeinbloomfield : 4/12/2017 1:52 pm : link
these are early predictions. FO is just doing what everyone else does: searching for filler before the draft.

That said, they expect the Giants defense to regress a little, but I have a hard time seeing that. They are bringing back everyone except for Hankins.

The Giants (and the NFCE in general) have a tough schedule this year. The AFC west is pretty good, plus Seattle.
For much of last season,  
Pete in MD : 4/12/2017 1:56 pm : link
FO's DVOA rankings had the Eagles as the #1 team. I think their algorithm may need a little tweaking.
hey, are they still running SackSEER? HAHAHAHAHA  
Greg from LI : 4/12/2017 2:04 pm : link
Talk about fail with a capital F.
RE: By how much did the NYG exceed their FO prognosis last year?  
Klaatu : 4/12/2017 2:08 pm : link
In comment 13425274 The_Boss said:
Quote:
I'm pretty certain they didn't have them anywhere near double digit wins.


He had the Giants going 6-10.



Missed it by that much.
I'm not a big fan of claiming regression to the mean here  
BestFeature : 4/12/2017 2:10 pm : link
This isn't random coin flipping. It's only regression to the mean if you think that the mean for a football team with the given talent is 8-8. Otherwise why haven't the Pats or Browns regressed to the mean?
Absurd...  
trueblueinpw : 4/12/2017 2:13 pm : link
There's only one NFL predictions I'm comfortable making at this point in the year. The New England Patriots will win the AFC East. Write it down, tattoo it on your face, bet the house in Vegas: Hoodie will get the Pats to win the AFC East.

What else happens in the NFL is anyone's guess.
FO prognostication is biased  
MasherJints : 4/12/2017 2:30 pm : link
It is impossible to determine the success or failure of any team without a complete roster. This especially true when 1/3 of the roster has yet to be obtained.

If you were to apply a true unbiased diagnosis, the Defense can only be determined to improve minimally conservatively 25%. Considering the progress last season and return of up to the moment of 92% of the front line personal confidence of staff and personal is very high.

As to the Offense much is to be determined by performance but unlike many on this I feel that all of the starting components in place. The addition of Fluker will prove dramatic to an improved running game. Many here have allowed pundit opinion to establish the productivity of this lineman. If you watch Charger game film you can determine his performance is being judged on a unit assessment rather than personal performance. As a run blocker he is 100% more effective than his predecessors. Hart's performance improved throughout the season and I believe that if he were allowed to retain his position coming back from injury, the OL would of performed better than with Newhouse.

The addition of Marshall is monumental, the Giants will deploy the best starting Trio in the NFL. TE Ellison is another major addition impacting the running game and will surprise as a receiver. All this means that the only team in the NFCE that has added more contributors to an already proved talent based is the New York Giants.

FO is blowing smoke and it has a foul scent.
No excuses to go 8-8 this year.  
Dave in Hoboken : 4/12/2017 2:32 pm : link
It could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.
well the OL is pretty much the same  
micky : 4/12/2017 2:42 pm : link
thus, guessing not getting as lucky this year as last as defense carrying the team. The offense was dysfunctional most of the time and it started up front.

Can see an 8-8 plus/minus 1
Plenty of things could cause regression  
jcn56 : 4/12/2017 2:46 pm : link
We were relatively healthy last season - that can always change. Eli's decline could accelerate and worsen matters. Strength of schedule isn't going to do us any favors either.

I don't think it's very likely, but it's a lot more possible than any of us hope.
I like FO, and think they do really good work,  
Section331 : 4/12/2017 2:54 pm : link
but this merely rises to the level of click bait. What is the point of predicting records before the draft? This is all about trying to stay relevant during a quiet period. I get why they need to do it, but that doesn't mean we need to pay any attention to it.
RE: They're expecting a regression to the mean  
j_rud : 4/12/2017 2:57 pm : link
In comment 13425280 David in LA said:
Quote:
.


That line made me chuckle. We get it, you use advanced metrics. But quit trying to sound like a mathematician. It's still just football.

Self importance aside, I have no problem with the prediction. No telling if the offense will improve and it will be hard for the ad to play at the level they did last year. They were flat out phenomenal and the only reason the team made the playoffs. If things break well they can hit double digit wins again. If they don't, they might win 6 or 7.
RE: RE: By how much did the NYG exceed their FO prognosis last year?  
The_Boss : 4/12/2017 2:59 pm : link
In comment 13425310 Klaatu said:
Quote:
In comment 13425274 The_Boss said:


Quote:


I'm pretty certain they didn't have them anywhere near double digit wins.



He had the Giants going 6-10.



Missed it by that much.


Thank you.
Makes sense. To make that prediction.  
Beezer : 4/12/2017 3:04 pm : link
Before the draft. Before camp. Etc.

+++

What the answer to every question in the history of mankind?

Money.
The "unknown" every year is injuries  
JohnB : 4/12/2017 3:10 pm : link
Last year the Giants had one of their better years for injuries and they went to the playoffs. If they are hit with a rash of injuries, they will go 8-8. No surprise there.

Anyone predicting the season's outcome has to figure in injuries and if you can do that, you are a very special person since no one can do that.
Regression to the mean is idiotic  
WideRight : 4/12/2017 3:10 pm : link
For every team that regresses, there must be a team that deviates (Total wins and losses don't change and the distribution is Gaussian). They can talk about close games or fumble diffential too, but those are admittedly random ....

So basically they are just bullshitting. The offensive part is that they call themselves "intelligent". More bullshit.
..  
26.2 : 4/12/2017 4:47 pm : link
What do they prognosticate about Dallas? If anyone is regressing to the mean its them.
Sounds about right  
LCtheINTMachine : 4/12/2017 4:48 pm : link
The loudmouth Brandon Marshall has never been to the playoffs.

Plus everything McAdoo touched turned to gold. He could have a sophomore slump.

I think somehow Cousins wins the division.
RE: RE: They're expecting a regression to the mean  
David in LA : 4/12/2017 4:51 pm : link
In comment 13425379 j_rud said:
Quote:
In comment 13425280 David in LA said:


Quote:


.



That line made me chuckle. We get it, you use advanced metrics. But quit trying to sound like a mathematician. It's still just football.

Self importance aside, I have no problem with the prediction. No telling if the offense will improve and it will be hard for the ad to play at the level they did last year. They were flat out phenomenal and the only reason the team made the playoffs. If things break well they can hit double digit wins again. If they don't, they might win 6 or 7.


lol, I don't put too much stock into it. I just get a laugh at all the posters who take this article as some sort of burn. It's not crazy or that far fetched for the team to fall back to earth a little bit, especially considering how healthy we were last year.
RE: Sounds about right  
David in LA : 4/12/2017 4:51 pm : link
In comment 13425590 LCtheINTMachine said:
Quote:
The loudmouth Brandon Marshall has never been to the playoffs.

Plus everything McAdoo touched turned to gold. He could have a sophomore slump.

I think somehow Cousins wins the division.


How is Marshall a loudmouth?
RE: RE: RE: They're expecting a regression to the mean  
Suburbanites : 4/12/2017 5:21 pm : link
In comment 13425593 David in LA said:
Quote:
In comment 13425379 j_rud said:


Quote:


In comment 13425280 David in LA said:


Quote:


.



That line made me chuckle. We get it, you use advanced metrics. But quit trying to sound like a mathematician. It's still just football.

Self importance aside, I have no problem with the prediction. No telling if the offense will improve and it will be hard for the ad to play at the level they did last year. They were flat out phenomenal and the only reason the team made the playoffs. If things break well they can hit double digit wins again. If they don't, they might win 6 or 7.



lol, I don't put too much stock into it. I just get a laugh at all the posters who take this article as some sort of burn. It's not crazy or that far fetched for the team to fall back to earth a little bit, especially considering how healthy we were last year.


Totally agree and it's not like honorable Aaron and his team of unbiased mathematicians have been woefully wrong in an absolute head scratching way about the Giants in the past. This man presents a lock solid computational model that simply can't be questioned. Bless you Aaron Schatz.
Nice set up....  
WideRight : 4/12/2017 5:37 pm : link

Its been ten years, and I still laugh.

Intelligent? - ( New Window )
Regression to the mean only works if circumstances have not changed.  
bigfish703 : 4/12/2017 9:48 pm : link
Otherwise, you are comparing apples with oranges.

Every year NFL teams change. Some younger players improve, some FAs may leave, the number and seriousness of injuries cannot be predicted, etc. It has been rightly pointed out that the draft has not even taken place and that will change each team's situation.

Statistics can be potent, but only if they are applied intelligently. We still have a long ways to go before we can prognosticate with any chance of being right.

Let it go.

Analytics site.  
Crispino : 4/13/2017 7:59 am : link
If analytics were such a reliable predictor of success, all these guys running analytics based websites would be living large in Vegas and not wasting their time putting out a football website. Analytics have their place, but in the end, they're guessing along with everyone else. Who cares what they predict?
RE: Analytics site.  
map7711 : 4/13/2017 8:14 am : link
In comment 13426349 Crispino said:
Quote:
If analytics were such a reliable predictor of success, all these guys running analytics based websites would be living large in Vegas and not wasting their time putting out a football website. Analytics have their place, but in the end, they're guessing along with everyone else. Who cares what they predict?



Shoot!! You beat me to it. Was going to write the exact same thing. No one knows. Period. Just take this stuff as pure entertainment value and nothing else. No big deal really.
how can they predict our success...  
BillKo : 4/13/2017 10:22 am : link
without even seeing the draft choices?

Seems like an important part of the team developement.............
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