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NFT: Malcolm Brogdon for NBA Rookie of the Year!

Greg from LI : 4/13/2017 9:09 am
If Saric gets it over him, it'll be a travesty. From UVA blog Streaking the Lawn:

Quote:
•Brogdon has a better 3PT% and assist to turnover ratio than Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, and John Wall.
•Brogdon is the only player in the NBA averaging at least 10 points, four assists and one steal a game with less than two turnovers.
•Bucks record when Brogdon starts: 17-10 (.629), Other games: 25-29 (.462)
•Bucks record when Brogdon scores 12 or more: 22-10 (.687) Other games: 20-29 (.408)
• The only rookies in NBA history to shoot at least 45% FG, 40% 3PT, 86% FT with four assists per game? Steph Curry and Malcolm Brogdon.
•69 NBA players have attempted at least 185 shots in the 4th quarter. The top two in shooting percentage? Lebron James and Malcolm Brogdon.
• Brogdon leads all rookies with a 4.1 win share. That is higher than 11 rookies that won ROY, including Durant, Wiggins, and Michael Carter-Williams.
•Brogdon's win share of 4.1 is higher than any player on the Kings, Lakers, Magic, or 76ers this year.
•Brogdon is in the top 50 in 5 different NBA categories for qualified players including assists, steals, and 3PT%.
•Brogdon is the only rookie with a triple-double.


Link - ( New Window )
If Saric wins  
Deej : 4/13/2017 9:27 am : link
He will have the 3rd lowest win shares of any ROY, and the lowest in 36 years. Darrell Griffith and Woody Saulsberry are the only sub 1 WS ROYs. I think Willy was much better than Saric. However, I think Saric is going to get a lot of credit for 17/7 after the ASG when Embiid was done. Curious to see what Embiid's impact on the vote is. I think he's going to get a bunch of 1st place votes and also get left off a bunch of ballots.
BBR: Rookie avg stats (sorted by WS) - ( New Window )
NBA Rookie Ladder likes Brogdon - amazing 2nd round pick.  
Ira : 4/13/2017 9:33 am : link
They list Willy H as the 5th best rookie.
Link - ( New Window )
What a load of cherry picked accolades  
mcr2343 : 4/13/2017 9:34 am : link
10 pts and 4 assists for the season - and pretty consistently around 12 & 4 each month. That's pretty pedestrian.

I admittedly know nothing about his defense but those "accolades" are hilarious. Out of 69 players with a completely arbitrary 185 shot attempts he has the second best percentage. 69 players is more than 2 per team. and where does he rank out of players with 150 shots? Or 100 shots? Or 3 shots?

He's been a nice player and I'm not trying to get in a debate about who should be ROY because I don't know and don't particularly care but that list is scraping the barrel for
Embiid should win it  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 4/13/2017 9:43 am : link
just like Gary Sanchez should've won the AL ROY last year.
RE: Embiid should win it  
Deej : 4/13/2017 9:48 am : link
In comment 13426441 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
just like Gary Sanchez should've won the AL ROY last year.


I dont think either should have won. You need to play significantly more than 1/3 of the season to be rookie of the year. Otherwise there is too much noise. When you play just 1/3 of the season, a hot streak here or there can tip your stats to superstar levels.
RE: RE: Embiid should win it  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 10:04 am : link
In comment 13426454 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 13426441 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:


Quote:


just like Gary Sanchez should've won the AL ROY last year.



I dont think either should have won. You need to play significantly more than 1/3 of the season to be rookie of the year. Otherwise there is too much noise. When you play just 1/3 of the season, a hot streak here or there can tip your stats to superstar levels.


Is there anything to indicate that Embiid is anything but a superstar when he plays? I mean the sixers had the differential of a playoff team when he was on the court.

But I get the whole 30 games argument, certainly valid.

I think Saric should get it for how he played in the second half. Saric was the best player on his team. Brogdon got to play with an MVP candidate and also a likely future all star (Middleton). Without those two there aren't enough wins to "share" in the first place if you will.

That said i dont think it's a big deal either way. I'd vote Saric but it's not a "travesty" if brogdon wins or vice versa. Brogdon is going to be a key cog in what I think will be a contending team by as soon as next season.
A more interesting question is  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 10:08 am : link
If you had to take any of these up for rookie question, how would you rank them? I guess leave Embiid out of the discussion for now. Do you take Brogdon over Saric for long term? What about Ingram, Hield, Willy, etc.? I think I take Saric and maybe Ingram over Brogdon. Brogdon over Hield, not much of a debate.

It gets interesting when you get to Brogdon vs Murray and such. If the Bucks offered Brogdon for Willy would you do it? That's tough for me, I think I'd do that.
Yawn.  
B in ALB : 4/13/2017 10:08 am : link
.
it's most certainly a list of cherry-picked stats  
PaulBlakeTSU : 4/13/2017 10:19 am : link
and I often dislike how much gymnastics writers are willing do to make someone's performance seem special and rare.

But I do, in my biased view, think Brogdon should win rookie of the year. Saric is a good offensive player for a rookie though his efficiency is low and he amasses his numbers from being a high-volume player. I don't like his defense either.

Brogdon has played strong team defense and has been a key contributor on a playoff team. He has been far more efficient on offense. He certainly isn't carrying the team by any stretch, but he is playing meaningful minutes and he is contributing to every aspect of the game.

His coach raves about his contributions and maturit, and the few game stretch he sat with a sore back during the final stretch underscored how important he has become to the team as the Bucks struggled to get anything going in those games.
RE: it's most certainly a list of cherry-picked stats  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 10:31 am : link
In comment 13426494 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
and I often dislike how much gymnastics writers are willing do to make someone's performance seem special and rare.

But I do, in my biased view, think Brogdon should win rookie of the year. Saric is a good offensive player for a rookie though his efficiency is low and he amasses his numbers from being a high-volume player. I don't like his defense either.

Brogdon has played strong team defense and has been a key contributor on a playoff team. He has been far more efficient on offense. He certainly isn't carrying the team by any stretch, but he is playing meaningful minutes and he is contributing to every aspect of the game.

His coach raves about his contributions and maturit, and the few game stretch he sat with a sore back during the final stretch underscored how important he has become to the team as the Bucks struggled to get anything going in those games.


You don't like Saric's defense based on what you've seen or are we assuming Saric is a bad defender because he's a euro who plays for the sixers?

Not calling you out, but I've LOVED what I've seen from Saric on defense. He's a true competitor, makes winning plays on both ends during crunch time.
Saric was also stuffing stats on a talentless team  
Deej : 4/13/2017 10:50 am : link
The advanced stats despise him vs. Brogdon and Willy. Here are the 3 players' "all-in" advanced stats from BBR (order is Brogdon, Willy, Saric for each):

WS48: .100, .124, .023 (WS is 4.1, 3.4, 1.0)
PER: 14.9, 19.0, 12.8
oRtg-dRtg: 0, +4, -13
BPM: -0.5, 0.0, -2.2
VORP: 0.8, 0.7, -0.1

ESPN "all-in" stats:

RPM: 1.23, -0.61, -1.93
Wins: 5.27, 1.98, 1.61

By every all-in measure, Saric is the worst of the 3 players. You can make excuses about role etc., which are fair. But then you have to adjust your thoughts about their counting stats too -- Saric has more opportunity to compile stats, especially over Willy.
RE: Saric was also stuffing stats on a talentless team  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 11:02 am : link
In comment 13426557 Deej said:
Quote:
The advanced stats despise him vs. Brogdon and Willy. Here are the 3 players' "all-in" advanced stats from BBR (order is Brogdon, Willy, Saric for each):

WS48: .100, .124, .023 (WS is 4.1, 3.4, 1.0)
PER: 14.9, 19.0, 12.8
oRtg-dRtg: 0, +4, -13
BPM: -0.5, 0.0, -2.2
VORP: 0.8, 0.7, -0.1

ESPN "all-in" stats:

RPM: 1.23, -0.61, -1.93
Wins: 5.27, 1.98, 1.61

By every all-in measure, Saric is the worst of the 3 players. You can make excuses about role etc., which are fair. But then you have to adjust your thoughts about their counting stats too -- Saric has more opportunity to compile stats, especially over Willy.


I think role is as important as win shares. I'm not sure why win shares are the end all be all statistic for how effective a player is. Brogdon has 2 all star caliber players. Hell, Saric didn't even have a Melo or KP. I'd like to see he breakdown of he advanced metrics for the 2nd half of the season (shouldn't we gauge improvement as the season goes on, especially for a rookie?). He had a 27% usage rate in the 2nd half of the year compared to brogdons 18% on a team that won half as many games.

A .1 WS/48 player on the Bucks doesn't mean a player is a .1 WS/48 player on the sixers. There are countless examples of how role and team significantly impacts those kinds of things.

Prime example: Aaron Afflalo. In denver af age 25, he had a WS/48 of .12 when his usage rate was 14%. 2 years later in Orlando, his usage rate jumped 8% (about difference between Brogs and Dario) and his WS/48 was cut to .42. Was he 1/3rd the player he was in Denver? I think not. I don't know if a proven regression metric exists out there but I'm sure the numbers aren't drastically different if you account for role.
This isn't MVP  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 11:05 am : link
I don't think team success should matter as much. It's one thing if a rookie is carrying the team. But you can argue Brogdon has been the 4th. Or 5th best player on the Bucks (depending on how you view jabari and Monroe). You flip the two I think you see he WS numbers flip as well.
the most telling thing about this...  
Italianju : 4/13/2017 11:11 am : link
is the fact that the argument is down to these two shows how horrible this rookie class was. Especially when you consider that Saric (and embiid) wasnt even in this draft class.

Id prolly give it to Saric. The couple months that he actually got legit playing time he averaged like 17 pts, 8 reb, 3 assists. Brogdon was solid as well, but he never really stood out to me.

ALthough like i said, the fact that its kind of down to these two is pretty sad.
sure you can say stat stuffing...  
Italianju : 4/13/2017 11:13 am : link
but at the same time he was the best offensive player on his team and therefor getting the focus of the defensive. It def wasnt on McConnel, TLC, Okafor, stauskus, etc.. Sure Covington got some D and guys like Holmes had a strong final month, but Saric was the focus. I really like WH, but he was often overlooked by defenses as they geared to stop Melo/KP.

RE: RE: Saric was also stuffing stats on a talentless team  
Deej : 4/13/2017 11:28 am : link
In comment 13426589 giantsfan44ab said:
Quote:
In comment 13426557 Deej said:


Quote:


The advanced stats despise him vs. Brogdon and Willy. Here are the 3 players' "all-in" advanced stats from BBR (order is Brogdon, Willy, Saric for each):

WS48: .100, .124, .023 (WS is 4.1, 3.4, 1.0)
PER: 14.9, 19.0, 12.8
oRtg-dRtg: 0, +4, -13
BPM: -0.5, 0.0, -2.2
VORP: 0.8, 0.7, -0.1

ESPN "all-in" stats:

RPM: 1.23, -0.61, -1.93
Wins: 5.27, 1.98, 1.61

By every all-in measure, Saric is the worst of the 3 players. You can make excuses about role etc., which are fair. But then you have to adjust your thoughts about their counting stats too -- Saric has more opportunity to compile stats, especially over Willy.



I think role is as important as win shares. I'm not sure why win shares are the end all be all statistic for how effective a player is. Brogdon has 2 all star caliber players. Hell, Saric didn't even have a Melo or KP. I'd like to see he breakdown of he advanced metrics for the 2nd half of the season (shouldn't we gauge improvement as the season goes on, especially for a rookie?). He had a 27% usage rate in the 2nd half of the year compared to brogdons 18% on a team that won half as many games.

A .1 WS/48 player on the Bucks doesn't mean a player is a .1 WS/48 player on the sixers. There are countless examples of how role and team significantly impacts those kinds of things.

Prime example: Aaron Afflalo. In denver af age 25, he had a WS/48 of .12 when his usage rate was 14%. 2 years later in Orlando, his usage rate jumped 8% (about difference between Brogs and Dario) and his WS/48 was cut to .42. Was he 1/3rd the player he was in Denver? I think not. I don't know if a proven regression metric exists out there but I'm sure the numbers aren't drastically different if you account for role.


So to be clear I listed 7 all-in advanced stats, and you response pretends that Im treating any one of them as the end all stat. I clearly didnt do that.

I said you can talk about role etc. to excuse Saric's shitty advanced stats. You did that but didnt do the other half, which was to DISCOUNT Saric's counting stats for his increased role. Saric is gonna get a lot of credit for his points and rebounds. Except he had a true shooting percentage of .508, meaning he was a very inefficient scorer -- #238 of 282 players with 1000+ minutes (Willy was #100 at .566.

If you control for opportunity (mpg), Willy comes out the better player on counting stats. Per 36 minutes:

Willy: 16 ppg, 12.6 FGA, 13.6 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.7 TO, 1.1 st, 1.0 blk, .539/.267/.728 2/3/F shooting.
Saric: 17.6 ppg, 8.7 reb, 3.1 ast, 3.1 TO, 1 st, .5 blk, .469/.311/.782 shooting.

So Saric leads by 1.6 points (on 3 more FGA). Willy has ~5 more rebounds and a half a block over Saric's half an assist (though both have ~1:1 A:TO ratios).

Willy would get my vote over Saric. My vote would come down to Willy or Brogdon.
Tyler Ulis  
Dave in PA : 4/13/2017 11:38 am : link
Outperformed them all, albeit for a shorter amount of time on one of the worst and youngest teams in the league
I'd be glad if Willy made the  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 11:40 am : link
All first rookie team. I fear he's going to get overlooked for Murray or Hield though. I do think Willy should get more consideration than he is going to but ultimately his 18 mpg is going to hold him back with voters IMO.

I guess it's just using different criteria. My point isn't just restricted to usage. It's that Brogdon/Willy had all star level players on their team. Saric didn't even have a Derrick Rose. I guess Embiid for the first part of the season and Holmes towards the end but I just think it's impressive. Looking st Saric as the best player on his team vs Brogdon/Willy being 4th/5th options shows more than simply role. Saric is using less "quality" poessions and is forced to create looks for his teammates and himself whereas Brogdon and Willy have the luxury of having other guys help them out.
RE: sure you can say stat stuffing...  
Deej : 4/13/2017 11:40 am : link
In comment 13426620 Italianju said:
Quote:
but at the same time he was the best offensive player on his team and therefor getting the focus of the defensive. It def wasnt on McConnel, TLC, Okafor, stauskus, etc.. Sure Covington got some D and guys like Holmes had a strong final month, but Saric was the focus. I really like WH, but he was often overlooked by defenses as they geared to stop Melo/KP.


But my point is you have to look at both sides of the coin. Lets say I concede that Saric was getting more attention (Im not sure he was as much as no one was getting any attention; and Melo/KP probably werent drawing much center attention, to free up Willy, though Rose was). Fine. So his job was harder. And he was a much less efficient scorer (TS%) and much less efficient player overall (the 7 all-in stats I listed).

My problem with the pro-Saric argument (which isnt a problem with Saric himself) is that the excuses are being used to swallow up the problem that every statistic shows that he was really inefficient out there. His inefficiency is just dismissed because of his team. I think it remains to be seen whether Saric is even a good player, as opposed to a skilled guy who can fill up stats when left out there with no talent. Im not judging him now on his future, but in terms of his ROY candidacy, I have real reservations.
RE: RE: sure you can say stat stuffing...  
giantsfan44ab : 4/13/2017 11:48 am : link
In comment 13426698 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 13426620 Italianju said:


Quote:


but at the same time he was the best offensive player on his team and therefor getting the focus of the defensive. It def wasnt on McConnel, TLC, Okafor, stauskus, etc.. Sure Covington got some D and guys like Holmes had a strong final month, but Saric was the focus. I really like WH, but he was often overlooked by defenses as they geared to stop Melo/KP.




But my point is you have to look at both sides of the coin. Lets say I concede that Saric was getting more attention (Im not sure he was as much as no one was getting any attention; and Melo/KP probably werent drawing much center attention, to free up Willy, though Rose was). Fine. So his job was harder. And he was a much less efficient scorer (TS%) and much less efficient player overall (the 7 all-in stats I listed).

My problem with the pro-Saric argument (which isnt a problem with Saric himself) is that the excuses are being used to swallow up the problem that every statistic shows that he was really inefficient out there. His inefficiency is just dismissed because of his team. I think it remains to be seen whether Saric is even a good player, as opposed to a skilled guy who can fill up stats when left out there with no talent. Im not judging him now on his future, but in terms of his ROY candidacy, I have real reservations.


Maybe my view on his future plays into it. I think he has legitimate all star potential. ROY has traditionally been a more counting stat award in general though and based off consistency with how the award is given I think Saric is/should get it.
Saric's defense  
PaulBlakeTSU : 4/13/2017 12:05 pm : link
was based on what I've seen, not just an assumption based on his origin, but it's a fair point that Euro bigs get stereotyped.

There is an argument to be made about Saric's teammates and Brogdon's teammates in that Saric will be less efficient due to more focus, but he also gets higher volume leading to higher raw stats.

However, the flip side is that Brogdon stepped into a meaningful role for a meaningful team and has played a vital role for team who seemingly looked terrible in the final stretch when he sat with a sore back. Could be a small sample size, but there seemed to be a stark difference.

His efficiency shooting is partially due to open looks created by his team, no doubt, but he has been efficient in many areas. He is shooting well from 3, he is creating opportunities with his assists relative to his turnovers.
Zach Lowe says....Brogdon  
Greg from LI : 4/13/2017 1:51 pm : link
Quote:

For 31 games, Joel Embiid was one of the best rookies in league history. The Sixers -- the freaking Sixers -- performed like a playoff team during Embiid's outrageous 786 minutes.

Unfortunately, the NBA season consists of 82 games. Had Embiid played more of them, Philly might have actually been a playoff team. I'm sorry that one of the baseline requirements for being a productive NBA player is playing in NBA games...

...Brogdon does, too. He can't match Saric's counting stats, but that is the price of playing on a better team. Brogdon shapes his game to the moment. He developed a wonderful two-man chemistry with Greg Monroe on bench units before seizing the starting job from Matthew Dellavedova, and the Bucks aren't afraid to turn some of the crunch-time offense over to him. When Giannis Antetokounmpo is dribbling through people, Brogdon morphs back into a spot-up shooter; he canned 40 percent from deep, and pulling that in meaningful games gets him the nod.

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