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Who will rise and who will drop ?

Archer : 4/18/2017 7:39 pm
This is a tough draft to figure out. There are a lot of polarizing players that could either go earlier or later than anticipated.

I think that Dalvin Cook, Cam Robinson, and Zach Cunningham could drop out of the first round.

I think that Obi Melifonwu, Joe Mixon, and Zay Jones could make the first round.
It will be interesting  
mrvax : 4/18/2017 7:41 pm : link
because it seems like the guys ranked from about 15-30 are all over the place on mock draft boards. The Giants should get a very good player at #23.

I  
AcidTest : 4/18/2017 7:54 pm : link
think your list is pretty good, but I don't see Mixon or Jones as first round players. I'll say Bowser is taken in the first round, possibly by the Giants.
I really don't think there are ever risers and fallers  
robbieballs2003 : 4/18/2017 7:59 pm : link
At least not to the extreme we think it happens. Teams know these prospects for a long time. Not much changes after the season ends other than medicals and off the field issues. When we see risers and fallers that just means the people covering the draft were never really in the know from the beginning. It is just them starting to catch up to what the teams already know.
I always believed that a player is a reach or riser in the draft until  
wgenesis123 : 4/18/2017 8:08 pm : link
the moment a team picks them. Once they are picked, they are no longer a projection. Their true value has been set. They still can end up being a bust, but everyone who gets drafted can bust.
Robbie  
Archer : 4/18/2017 8:08 pm : link
I agree.

Perhaps the question should be which players are over valued or undervalued by the fans?

info NFL.com and Dave Te  
RAIN : 4/18/2017 8:10 pm : link
that risers in the edge category include: Tyus Bowser, Jordan Willis (called it), and TJ Watt.

In the TE category, some are dropping Njoku. Depth at TE and quality elsewhere are dropping him.

In the LB category Jarrad Davis in up. Zach Cunningham is down (don't want him at all).

Zay Jones is being discussed in the early second. Corey Davis is all over the place...That may be smoke.

at RB.. Dalvin Cook seems to be falling. Joe Mixon seems to be rising into the late first (reasoning.. your gonna get hell in the third round for taking him, so you may as well not risk it and take him in the first.. (49ers and Bucs as potential landing spots for both).





Peppers will rise back up  
DennyInDenville : 4/18/2017 8:12 pm : link
Top 15
RE: Robbie  
robbieballs2003 : 4/18/2017 8:12 pm : link
In comment 13433466 Archer said:
Quote:
I agree.

Perhaps the question should be which players are over valued or undervalued by the fans?


I didn't mean to rip the thread. I just wanted to add that. But we don't have to nitpick the words.

To answer your question, I think the guys Dave Te brought up in Watt amd Bowser. Neither one were talked about going at or before our pick but when you have guys that can rush the passer they will always hold value.
Unfortunately...  
Milton : 4/18/2017 8:14 pm : link
I don't see Cam Robinson dropping. I still think there is very little chance that he lasts until the Giants pick.
RE: Peppers will rise back up  
Big Rick in FL : 4/18/2017 8:18 pm : link
In comment 13433472 DennyInDenville said:
Quote:
Top 15


That'd be the worst pick of the 1st round. Makes no sense to me to draft a guy who doesn't have a position. He's not big enough or a good enough tackler to play LB. He's not good enough in coverage to play Safety. Plus he doesn't create turnovers. In 27 games at Michigan he had 0 fumbles forced, 0 fumbles recovered and 1 INT. That was the result of a bad pass and a dropped ball. That would terrify me if I was an NFL GM.
This is sorta like the question  
Taggart : 4/18/2017 8:20 pm : link
are you a shower or a grower.
RE: Unfortunately...  
robbieballs2003 : 4/18/2017 8:22 pm : link
In comment 13433481 Milton said:
Quote:
I don't see Cam Robinson dropping. I still think there is very little chance that he lasts until the Giants pick.


I brought this up about a month ago. Imo, I don't think the Giants are taking an OL early. Imo, they have their OL set. Like it or not, Flowers is our LT. Pugh is our LG. Richburg is our C. We have Jerry. Fluker, and Hart battling it our for 2 spots. If the Giants draft an OL in the first then the odds are they aren't getting anything out of their investment in year one when Eli's time is limited and we are fighting for a super bowl.

That would not be my take but that is what I see the Giants doing. Unless that OL is so good that he would 100% start over the current guys then great but these guys all have question marks where I think the Giants feel more comfortable with the vets they have.

Pass rusher, DB to some extent, DT, etc. will have a much better return on investment early on helping us out tbis year and beyond.

OL seems much more likely in the third and beyond with a possibility in the second. Just my opinion though.
No such thing  
Big Rick in FL : 4/18/2017 8:26 pm : link
As risers and fallers. At least to NFL teams. It's a media creation. I was just at an event with Dirk Koetter (Bucs HC) and someone asked him who were the biggest risers and who were the biggest fallers after the combine. He said that doesn't happen. He said that's just the media catching up to what NFL teams already know.

To answer the question the biggest riser I think will be Davis Webb. Around a month ago he was considered a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick. The rumors surrounding him now are that he's going to go in the late 1st round, because a team is going to want him to sign a 5 year contract as opposed to a 4 yes contract.

From the guys you named. I think Mixon is going to go high, but I don't think he goes first round. Obi Melifonwu is probably going to go in the 1st round. I've read the Cowboys are very high on him. I could also see Zay Jones sneaking into the 1st round. He's awesome. If I was a gambling man I'd bet that Jones goes in the top 40 picks.

I don't think any of your 3 fallers will fall out of the 1st round. I think Cam Robinson is going to go higher than he's currently being projected. It's a very weak OT class so I could see him getting over drafted by a OL needy team. Unless a guy like OJ Howard is available at 23 I don't think Cunningham gets past the Giants. He's got very good size, great production and probably even better football IQ/instincts. I don't think Cook falls out of the 1st, but out of the & you named I think he's most likely to drop. If he was clean off the field and didn't have an injury history he'd be going toe to toe with Fournette as the top RB. Unfortunately he's been in trouble with the law over 5 times. That combined with bad shoulders could very well cause him to drop.
Milton  
Archer : 4/18/2017 8:27 pm : link
I will be very surprised if Robinson is not available at #23.

Robinson has some character issues and may be viewed as a guard.

Can Robinson play LOT ?
Guards seem to be devalued by the NFL.
Archer  
Big Rick in FL : 4/18/2017 8:36 pm : link
Even if Guard is undervalued which I don't think it is anymore. They still go fairly high in the draft. Zach Martin went 16th overall. Jonathan Cooper went 7th & Chance Warmack went 10th overall.
Flowers vs. Robinson  
Archer : 4/18/2017 9:06 pm : link
This may be blasphemy but I think that Flowers was a better prospect than Robinson is.

Flowers was drafted as a LOT. Robinson is viewed strictly as a OG.
If the Giants did not believe that Flowers could play LOT I do not think they would have drafted him in the first round.

It is easier to find an interior lineman later in the draft than someone who plays outside. I believe that this devalues an OG.

There are always exceptions.
RE: RE: Unfortunately...  
Milton : 4/18/2017 9:16 pm : link
In comment 13433497 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
I

I brought this up about a month ago. Imo, I don't think the Giants are taking an OL early. Imo, they have their OL set. Like it or not, Flowers is our LT. Pugh is our LG. Richburg is our C. We have Jerry. Fluker, and Hart battling it our for 2 spots. If the Giants draft an OL in the first then the odds are they aren't getting anything out of their investment in year one when Eli's time is limited and we are fighting for a super bowl.

That would not be my take but that is what I see the Giants doing. Unless that OL is so good that he would 100% start over the current guys then great but these guys all have question marks where I think the Giants feel more comfortable with the vets they have
Do you really think the Giants are comfortable with the vets they have? Are you? Cam Robinson could start at any one of three different positions as a rookie for the Giants: left tackle, right tackle, and right guard.

Don't be confused by what John Mara said about Flowers. He didn't say the Giants are giving him another year as the starting left tackle, he said "he knows he needs to get better" but the Giants haven't given up on him yet. That is not a ringing endorsement.

There are all sorts of reasons to draft an OL in the first round. It's the team's biggest need is reason #1. And that's not some secret that's being kept from the Giants personnel department. They know it as well as anyone. Probably more so!
RE: Archer  
mrvax : 4/18/2017 9:17 pm : link
In comment 13433524 Big Rick in FL said:
Quote:
Even if Guard is undervalued which I don't think it is anymore. They still go fairly high in the draft. Zach Martin went 16th overall. Jonathan Cooper went 7th & Chance Warmack went 10th overall.


Agreed and in 2015 OG Scherff was drafted 5th by the Redskins!
RE: RE: Archer  
Milton : 4/18/2017 9:18 pm : link
In comment 13433574 mrvax said:
Quote:
In comment 13433524 Big Rick in FL said:


Quote:


Even if Guard is undervalued which I don't think it is anymore. They still go fairly high in the draft. Zach Martin went 16th overall. Jonathan Cooper went 7th & Chance Warmack went 10th overall.



Agreed and in 2015 OG Scherff was drafted 5th by the Redskins!
And he was ranked higher than Flowers on the Giants draft board. If the Redskins hadn't selected him, the Giants would've.
RE: RE: RE: Unfortunately...  
robbieballs2003 : 4/18/2017 9:22 pm : link
In comment 13433573 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 13433497 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


I

I brought this up about a month ago. Imo, I don't think the Giants are taking an OL early. Imo, they have their OL set. Like it or not, Flowers is our LT. Pugh is our LG. Richburg is our C. We have Jerry. Fluker, and Hart battling it our for 2 spots. If the Giants draft an OL in the first then the odds are they aren't getting anything out of their investment in year one when Eli's time is limited and we are fighting for a super bowl.

That would not be my take but that is what I see the Giants doing. Unless that OL is so good that he would 100% start over the current guys then great but these guys all have question marks where I think the Giants feel more comfortable with the vets they have

Do you really think the Giants are comfortable with the vets they have? Are you? Cam Robinson could start at any one of three different positions as a rookie for the Giants: left tackle, right tackle, and right guard.

Don't be confused by what John Mara said about Flowers. He didn't say the Giants are giving him another year as the starting left tackle, he said "he knows he needs to get better" but the Giants haven't given up on him yet. That is not a ringing endorsement.

There are all sorts of reasons to draft an OL in the first round. It's the team's biggest need is reason #1. And that's not some secret that's being kept from the Giants personnel department. They know it as well as anyone. Probably more so!


I think I was clear with saying that is not how I view it but how I believe the Giants view it.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Unfortunately...  
Milton : 4/18/2017 9:33 pm : link
In comment 13433585 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:

I think I was clear with saying that is not how I view it but how I believe the Giants view it.
I think you underestimate the Giants.
RE: I really don't think there are ever risers and fallers  
JohnB : 4/19/2017 7:16 am : link
In comment 13433449 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
At least not to the extreme we think it happens. Teams know these prospects for a long time. Not much changes after the season ends other than medicals and off the field issues. When we see risers and fallers that just means the people covering the draft were never really in the know from the beginning. It is just them starting to catch up to what the teams already know.


100% agreed!
As in most Drafts...  
Torrag : 4/19/2017 7:39 am : link
...Pass Rushers and CB's will rise if they have physical tools teams can project.
RE: Unfortunately...  
barens : 4/19/2017 8:01 am : link
In comment 13433481 Milton said:
Quote:
I don't see Cam Robinson dropping. I still think there is very little chance that he lasts until the Giants pick.


Me too, and I don't see Cook falling either, unless teams are scared away by off the field stuff, which I'm not familiar with, he's not falling out of the the first round.

Lately, DE's/OLB pass rushers and safeties have been moving up in recent years in the draft, and I don't see that changing this year. I think Demarcus Walker is a guy I wouldn't be surprised to see go in round 1.
RE: RE: Peppers will rise back up  
OC2.0 : 4/19/2017 6:00 pm : link
In comment 13433485 Big Rick in FL said:
Quote:
In comment 13433472 DennyInDenville said:


Quote:


Top 15



That'd be the worst pick of the 1st round. Makes no sense to me to draft a guy who doesn't have a position. He's not big enough or a good enough tackler to play LB. He's not good enough in coverage to play Safety. Plus he doesn't create turnovers. In 27 games at Michigan he had 0 fumbles forced, 0 fumbles recovered and 1 INT. That was the result of a bad pass and a dropped ball. That would terrify me if I was an NFL GM.


Seems to be a Shaq Thompson clone. Pretty sure Car. is happy with him.
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