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Trade value chart vs 2016 Trades (actual)

allstarjim : 4/20/2017 3:34 pm
There was a post in this thread: http://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2& thread=551791 that said the trade value chart is almost always followed. I wanted to examine if this is true by looking at roughly half of the trades from last year during the draft, including the trade for #1 overall, which occurred approximately a week prior to draft day:

Raiders get 100 (rd 4) (Connor Cook) from Browns for picks 114 (rd 4) and 154 (rd 5)
100 pts (100) for 66+29.8 (picks 114 and 154) = 100 for 95.8
VERDICT = roughly even

Bears get No 113 (rd 4) (LB Nick Kwiatkoski) from Rams for picks 117(rd 4) and 206 (rd 6)
68 pts (113) for 60 (117) and 9 (206) = 68 for 69
VERDICT = roughly even

Jags get 36 (rd 2) (LB Myles Jack) from Ravens for picks 38 (rd 2) and 146 (rd 5)
540 (36) for 520 (38) and 33 (146) = 540 for 553 /
VERDICT = very slight Jags overpay, the lesser valued pick being a round later would've made it about even, value of the overpay was a early 7th rounder

Dolphins get 38 (rd 2) (CB Xavien Howard) for 42 (rd 2) and 107 (rd 4)
520 (38) for 480 (42) and 80 (107) = 520 for 560
VERDICT = Dolphins overpay by 40 points, value of early 5th rounder

Bills get 41 (rd 2) (LB Reggie Ragland) from Bears for picks 49 (rd 2) and 117 (rd 4), and future 4th rounder (2017)
490 (41) for 410 (49) and 60 (117) + 70 (future 4th) = 490 for 540
VERDICT = Bills overpay by 50 pts, valued at a late 4th rounder

Packers get 48 (rd 2) (OT Jason Spriggs) from Colts for picks 57 (rd 2), 125 (rd 4) and 248 (rd 7)
420 for 330 (57), 47 (125), and 1-2 points (late 7th very little value) = 420 for 378 points
VERDICT = Packers UNDERPAY by 42 points, value of early 5th round pick

Rams get 1 (rd 1) (QB Jared Goff), 113 (rd 4), and 177 (rd 6) from Titans for picks 15 (rd 1), 43 (rd 2), 45 (rd 2), 76 (rd 3), 2017 1st and 3rd picks
3000 (1), 68 (113), 20.6 (177) for 1050 (15), 470 (43), 450 (45), 210 (76), 1000 (2017 1st), and 190 (2017 3rd) = 3088.6 for 3370
VERDICT = Rams overpay by 281.4 pts, or late 2nd round pick value

Eagles get 2 (1) (Carson Wentz), and 2017 4th from Browns for picks 8 (rd 1), 77 (rd 3), 100 (rd 4), 2017 Rd 1 and Rd 2
2600 (2) and 70 (2017 4th) for 1400 (8), 205 (77), 100 (100), 1000 (2017 1st), and 420 (2017 2nd) = 2670 for 3125
VERDICT = Eagles overpay by 455 points, value of mid-2nd round pick

Bears get 9 (rd 1) (Leonard Floyd) from Bucs for picks 11 (rd 1) and 106 (rd 4)
1350 (9) for 1250 (11) and 82 (106) = 1350 for 1332
VERDICT = Bears slight UNDER pay, chart would've allowed for an additional 6 rd pick to Bucs to make it more even

Titans get 8 (rd 1) (OT Jack Conklin, sigh) and 176 (rd 6) from Browns for picks 15 (rd 1), 76 (rd 3), and 2017 2nd rounder
1400 (8) and 21 (176) for 1050 (15), 210 (76), and 420 (future 2nd) = 1576 for 1680
VERDICT = Titans overpay by 104 points, value of 4th round pick

Dolphins get 86 (rd 3) (WR Leonte Carroo) from Vikings for picks 186 (rd 6), 2017 3rd round pick, 2017 4th round pick
160 (86) for 17 (186), 190 (2017 3rd rd), and 70 (2017 4th rd) = 160 for 277
VERDICT = Dolphins overpay by 117 points, value of mid-4th round pick

Panthers get 77 (rd 3) (CB Darryl Worley) and 141 (rd 5) from Browns for picks 93 (rd 3), 129 (rd 4), and 168 (rd 5)
205 (77) and 35.5 (141) for 128 (93), 43 (129), and 24.2 (168) = 240.5 for 195.2
VERDICT = Panthers UNDERPAY by 45.3 points, value of late 4th rounder

Jets get 158 (rd 5) (OT Brandon Shell) from Redskins for 2017 4th round pick
28.2 (158) for 70 (2017 4th round pick) = 28.2 for 70
VERDICT = Jets OVERPAY by 41.8 points, value of early 5th round pick

What can we learn? The more valuable the pick you are trying to trade for, the more the draft value chart becomes irrelevant... you are going to overpay. As you get into the middle rounds, the trades become more even relative to the draft chart. So when posters use the draft chart for theoretical 1st and 2nd round trades, to make it more realistic, you have to add more than the draft value chart suggests to the cost of moving up.

Anyway, it was an interesting look at what teams paid and for what players.
It all depends on..  
est1986 : 4/20/2017 3:37 pm : link
A teams opinion on the draft class and the player(s) available at the pick in question. The chart is helpful but GMs dont need it.
You have to discount the #1 and #2 QB picks  
BillT : 4/20/2017 3:40 pm : link
If you want to trade up to the top of the draft to get a QB you're going to overpay. Just the way it is.

And if you trade for a pick a year away you have to discount that pick. A pick a year later isn't worth as much as a pick in the present year.
being within 40-50 pts  
giants#1 : 4/20/2017 3:44 pm : link
when the total is 550, is basically a push.

What that really shows you is that the chart is worthless when trying to trade up for a QB.
RE: You have to discount the #1 and #2 QB picks  
allstarjim : 4/20/2017 3:46 pm : link
In comment 13435990 BillT said:
Quote:
If you want to trade up to the top of the draft to get a QB you're going to overpay. Just the way it is.

And if you trade for a pick a year away you have to discount that pick. A pick a year later isn't worth as much as a pick in the present year.


I would argue that the #1 pick overall means you're going to overpay, no matter the player being picked there. The chart assigns point values to picks a year later. Because you have to wait for a year. A future #1 is worth 1000 points, for example. In this year's draft, the 16th overall pick is worth 1000 points, but the first overall pick is worth 3000, and the last pick of the first round is 590, so it's already somewhat discounted if your gambling that the team you are trading to is going to have a bad team the following year.

RE: being within 40-50 pts  
allstarjim : 4/20/2017 3:50 pm : link
In comment 13435997 giants#1 said:
Quote:
when the total is 550, is basically a push.

What that really shows you is that the chart is worthless when trying to trade up for a QB.


You can say that, and in reality I agree with you, but the chart says it's a 4th or 5th rounder... the whole point of this is that fans use the chart very literally, and so this demonstrates that the higher the pick, the more a team usually overpays (generally first round picks we're talking). The lower the pick, I think the teams use the chart in a general sense, but 4th and 5th round picks don't hold enough value for them to make or break a deal.
Teams trading up for a QB...  
Milton : 4/20/2017 3:52 pm : link
Will always be willing to give up a little more in the trade. This is relevant because it's possible that either KC (#27) or Houston (#25) may want to trade up with the Giants in an effort to land their guy (Mahomes?).
RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
allstarjim : 4/20/2017 3:56 pm : link
In comment 13436010 Milton said:
Quote:
Will always be willing to give up a little more in the trade. This is relevant because it's possible that either KC (#27) or Houston (#25) may want to trade up with the Giants in an effort to land their guy (Mahomes?).


That's the trade I think is intriguing. The chart would say that Houston would have to give up just an extra 4th and 5th rounder to swap places in the first, KC definitely a 4th, but in reality, we would be more than likely talking a 3rd and 5th at least.
I could see it happening, too  
Milton : 4/20/2017 3:56 pm : link
Mahomes was saying that Bill O'Brien was very impressed with how "real" he is (other coaches apparently thought he was a blow-up doll).
RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
Milton : 4/20/2017 4:01 pm : link
In comment 13436020 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 13436010 Milton said:
Quote: Will always be willing to give up a little more in the trade. This is relevant because it's possible that either KC (#27) or Houston (#25) may want to trade up with the Giants in an effort to land their guy (Mahomes?).

That's the trade I think is intriguing.
If the OL come off the board before the Giants have a shot at the one or two they favor, I could see them trading down and then grabbing the ER (Bowser from Sha Na Na?) or LB (Davis? Watt?) of their liking.
RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
AcidTest : 4/20/2017 4:05 pm : link
In comment 13436020 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 13436010 Milton said:


Quote:


Will always be willing to give up a little more in the trade. This is relevant because it's possible that either KC (#27) or Houston (#25) may want to trade up with the Giants in an effort to land their guy (Mahomes?).



That's the trade I think is intriguing. The chart would say that Houston would have to give up just an extra 4th and 5th rounder to swap places in the first, KC definitely a 4th, but in reality, we would be more than likely talking a 3rd and 5th at least.


If Jerry wants someone at #23, I doubt he'd risk losing that player just to get an extra day three pick, but dropping back to #25 or #27. Mahomes will also likely be long gone by #23.
RE: RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
Milton : 4/20/2017 4:12 pm : link
In comment 13436036 AcidTest said:
Quote:
If Jerry wants someone at #23, I doubt he'd risk losing that player just to get an extra day three pick, but dropping back to #25 or #27. Mahomes will also likely be long gone by #23.
If he has a hard-on for one in particular, yeah, but if the guy he really wanted was already off the board, trading down a couple of spots and being happy whether it's Watt, Bowser, or Davis makes a whole lotta sense (as opposed to a whole lotta love).

p.s.--As for Mahomes, he could go top ten or he could go Day 2. My own personal favorite is Brad Kaaya.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
allstarjim : 4/20/2017 4:19 pm : link
In comment 13436052 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 13436036 AcidTest said:


Quote:


If Jerry wants someone at #23, I doubt he'd risk losing that player just to get an extra day three pick, but dropping back to #25 or #27. Mahomes will also likely be long gone by #23.

If he has a hard-on for one in particular, yeah, but if the guy he really wanted was already off the board, trading down a couple of spots and being happy whether it's Watt, Bowser, or Davis makes a whole lotta sense (as opposed to a whole lotta love).

p.s.--As for Mahomes, he could go top ten or he could go Day 2. My own personal favorite is Brad Kaaya.


Ugh Milton. Kaaya? How much of him have you seen? He's a pretender. I think his upside is Nick Foles or Brian Hoyer. He constantly came up small at Miami when the chips were down... which is why they lost 16 games in 3 seasons under his tenure as a starting QB. I want no part of him at all in a Giants uniform. Honestly I'd rather go into the season with what we have and get a QB next year.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
burtmanjack : 4/20/2017 4:20 pm : link
In comment 13436052 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 13436036 AcidTest said:


Quote:


If Jerry wants someone at #23, I doubt he'd risk losing that player just to get an extra day three pick, but dropping back to #25 or #27. Mahomes will also likely be long gone by #23.

If he has a hard-on for one in particular, yeah, but if the guy he really wanted was already off the board, trading down a couple of spots and being happy whether it's Watt, Bowser, or Davis makes a whole lotta sense (as opposed to a whole lotta love).

p.s.--As for Mahomes, he could go top ten or he could go Day 2. My own personal favorite is Brad Kaaya.



Kaaya? Really? My guess is you just have the hots for his mom.

Bye, Felicia.
RE: RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
allstarjim : 4/20/2017 4:21 pm : link
In comment 13436036 AcidTest said:
Quote:
In comment 13436020 allstarjim said:


Quote:


In comment 13436010 Milton said:


Quote:


Will always be willing to give up a little more in the trade. This is relevant because it's possible that either KC (#27) or Houston (#25) may want to trade up with the Giants in an effort to land their guy (Mahomes?).



That's the trade I think is intriguing. The chart would say that Houston would have to give up just an extra 4th and 5th rounder to swap places in the first, KC definitely a 4th, but in reality, we would be more than likely talking a 3rd and 5th at least.



If Jerry wants someone at #23, I doubt he'd risk losing that player just to get an extra day three pick, but dropping back to #25 or #27. Mahomes will also likely be long gone by #23.


It won't be a factor until the Giants are on the clock, and by then we'll all know who is still on the board. I would guess Mahomes would be gone as well, but by no means would I put money on it.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Teams trading up for a QB...  
Milton : 4/20/2017 4:27 pm : link
In comment 13436073 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Ugh Milton. Kaaya? How much of him have you seen? He's a pretender. I think his upside is Nick Foles or Brian Hoyer. He constantly came up small at Miami when the chips were down.
Dave Te and Drew Boylhart are both fans of his and that's good enough for me. Plus I watched his interview with Gruden and he impressed me with his maturity (as compared to Mahomes, who didn't impress me at all in his convo with Gruden).
Drew Boylhart on Kaaya...  
Milton : 4/20/2017 4:31 pm : link
Quote:
Brad has the arm talent and accuracy of a veteran NFL quarterback. He is tough and in spite of his thin build can take a hit in the pocket and bounce back up with the toughest QBs at any level. Brad is very smart and given the time in the pocket will pick a defense apart, identifying its weaknesses with the accuracy of radar identifying an attacking plane. He shows good arm strength and touch with excellent velocity when he needs it. Brad shows excellent mental strength and leadership skills and works well with his coaches to adjust during the game. Hes the type of quarterback who understands how to throw his receivers open and that is maturity beyond most quarterbacks coming out in the draft. Brad has good size, arm strength, football intelligence and accuracy.

full profile - ( New Window )
I guess we'll have to wait a few years to find out who's right  
allstarjim : 4/20/2017 5:08 pm : link
And by that time we'll have probably forgotten this conversation completely! I definitely don't like him, with respect to Dave. He's fool's gold, so I hope the Redskins take him!
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