Gil Brandt was on Sirius radio this morning.
He was talking about teams that could draft a QB.
Gil suggested that the Giants were a prime candidate to select a QB. He also suggested that this is likely what the Giants will do.
Two players mentioned that the Giants may be targeting are Watson and Mahomes.
They are two completely different players.
Mahomes has rare arm talent. At his pro day, Mahomes easily threw the ball 80 yards. His velocity, at the combine, of 60 mph was the highest recorded since 2008. He is mobile and has all the attributes that you want in a QB.
However, he is very raw and will take a while to develop.
Watson is the antithesis of Mahomes in that he has a weak arm. His velocity at the combine varied from 44 mph - 49 mph. To put this in perspective since 2008, QBs who have been drafted with a 49 mph velocity include; Mike Glennon, Tonny Pike, Dan LeFavour,and Josh Johnson.The draftable threshold velocity for QBs is considered to be 55 mph.
There are some teams including the Giants who apparently do not put much stock in arm velocity. The Giants may believe that Watson has mechanical flaws that can be corrected.
I do not think that the Giants should draft a qb this year for many reasons, but, if they were I would take a chance on Mahomes.
Watson scares me.
In looking back at his games a lot of his throws are short passes less than 15 yards. His interceptions are not due to a lack of accuracy but the ball hangs. Michael Wiiliams saved Watson at least another 2-3 interceptions,by winning many contested balls.
I do not think that Watson's game translates to the NFL.
I think he is way off.
"For combine velocity measurement for QBs remember this. Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure"
"2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft traveled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window"
Not saying we should, but if the FO thinks that he can be special then I could see it.
"For combine velocity measurement for QBs remember this. Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure"
"2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft traveled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window"
Excellent points
They are considered not very strong armed but rather successful NFL QBs.
There's always an exception to the rule, but this shouldn't be ignored. When you see a guy like Dak Prescott who looks like he can't hit open WR's downfield with consistency and threw on average 9-10 mph faster than Watson, it makes you think Watson will struggle greatly throwing into tight windows.
Ball Velocity - ( New Window )
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
Sup..
Just playing devils advocate, but taking a QB this year and not having to draft a QB next year could allow for a very good player at another position to be there for us to draft in 2018 since so many QBs are projected to go high in the draft.
Also, I think we would all like to be picking 32, or at least in the back end of the draft next year. Would a trade up into the top 5 from the bottom 10 be something we would ever consider.
#DraftAnalysis
#DraftAnalysis
Agreed
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Day 3
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
Yes, wait until next year. 100% agree.
Its still a decade (and I didn't count but that must have been around 100 QB's), I wouldn't call that minuscule. There's exceptions to the rule of course, but it proves that he's going to struggle with getting zip on the ball, unless for that 1 day he just had a bad showing (doubt it). Maybe all of his other intangibles makes up for it, but that's a really big draw back on a 1st round QB, IMO.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
It's moot anyway, because they'll both be gone by #23.
The Giants shouldn't take any QB this year, but if they insist, then make it Seth Russell of Baylor on day three. He has a lot of the same qualities as Mahomes, but because of injuries in 2015 and 2016, can be had much later in the draft. The Giants met with him. He should be the target. Not Watson, Mahomes, Kizer, Webb, Trubisky, Peterman, Evans, Kayaa, or anyone else.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
Personally, I wasn't impressed by him in his youtube interview with Gruden. And this quote was a major turn-off....
It was determined by Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network's analytics specialist, that Watson had the least to work with in terms of receiver 'separation' among the elite cadre of this Draft's QB's. Curious how he was so statistically prolific in that scenario with such a lack of arm strength.
He also ranked 6th in the nation in adjusted completion percentage beyond 20 yards downfield. How do you account for that with his deficient arm talent?
I could go on but by now you get the point. I hope.
I'm not saying i'm right and your wrong at all. I could absolutely be wrong. But to dismiss his ball velocity so casually seems pretty careless from a talent evaluation standpoint.
The rest of his game is everything I'd want in our next QB, but this is a pretty glaring drawback.
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Day 3
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
+1
That is exactly what I was thinking. It feels like they're rushing it.
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lack of ball velocity for Watson is particularly problematic since he'll be throwing in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands late in the season. Watson looks like a better, more mobile version of Danny Kanell. Great kid, but pass.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
With someone like Mahomes you need to trust the interview process. How coachable is? How mentally tough is he? What's your read on his maturity and leadership qualities?
Personally, I wasn't impressed by him in his youtube interview with Gruden. And this quote was a major turn-off....
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I feel like a lot of coaches like me, but especially coach O'Brien. I think my personality and how real I am, those are things beyond what I can do on the field that he likes. It seemed like the way I was answering questions, I think he knew that I knew what was going on. You can tell when coaches have a confidence in you.
He may turn out to be the next Brett Favre, but as someone earlier suggested, he may turn out to be the next Kyle Boller. And the Giants don't need to be the team to roll the dice on Schrodinger's Cat.
I'm no way advocating drafting a QB at all this year, but reading scouts notes about Mahomes is that his head is in the right place. He's like Eli in that he's a 1st in/last out kind of work ethic. If true, makes sense that the Giants would be interested. A kid with that arm talent that works that hard would be hard to pass up.
Basically, in most drafts he is a mid-round pick and several scouts have him as a 3rd round pick or lower.
Most QB's have weaknesses coming into the NFL, but Watson's are more fundamentally difficult to correct than others. Is he going to throw the ball harder? Is he going to read defense well all of a sudden? Is he going to not get fooled by a CB feinting playing zone?
I've heard him compared to Dak because of Prescott's success as a rookie, yet even there the comparison is flawed when it comes to INT's and accuracy:
Watson has some strengths for the NFL that cause many to compare him to Dak Prescott. Like Prescott, Watson has great intangibles as a hard worker with good character off the field and leadership in the locker room. They both bring toughness and mobility to the table. When plays break down, they can use his athleticism to pick up yards on the ground and also can avoid sacks.
Where the comparison breaks down is in terms of accuracy and ball security. Prescott was much more accurate in college and threw far less interceptions. Prescott threw only five interceptions as a senior with 11 as a junior. Thus, Watson threw more interceptions (17) in 2016 than Prescott did in his final two years combined.
There are a lot of growth issues that Watson will need development for in the NFL - aside from his passing skills. Watson is also going to need to learn how to work under center, call plays in a huddle, and develop his footwork to make drops from being under center. His college offense has a lot of quick throws, screens, and designed runs that inflated his numbers but don't translate to the NFL. Some NFL sources believe that Watson is going to need his pro offense to be catered to him and that he could have issues fitting a NFL system.
In speaking with sources from teams around the NFL, their grades on Watson didn't match the media hype that he has received. I surveyed many teams to see where their initial draft grades were for Watson. Two playoff teams told me they had third-round grades on Watson. One said it was on the low end as a third- to fourth-rounder. Another playoff team told Walt that they had a third-round grade on Watson. Two other teams said they had second-round grades on Watson. All that being said, teams believe that Watson could be a late first-round quarterback, similar to Teddy Bridgewater, because of the dire need at the position across the NFL. A team could move back into the first round for Watson like Bridgewater. A general manager of an AFC team said that in the draft meetings in April, Watson will benefit from the 'Dak Prescott effect' and rise. Thus, it wouldn't surprise anyone if Watson is taken in the middle of the first round during the 2017 NFL Draft.
How do you know he's "really poor" at reading defenses? He has a lot of picks, but conversely, he has a lot of TD's. Had a 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio last year. The design of the offense kind of limits his reads, but you can pretty much say that about a lot of QB's coming out.
I'm no way advocating drafting a QB at all this year, but reading scouts notes about Mahomes is that his head is in the right place. He's like Eli in that he's a 1st in/last out kind of work ethic. If true, makes sense that the Giants would be interested. A kid with that arm talent that works that hard would be hard to pass up.
32 INTs..Great, a penchant just like our mediocre QB..Perfect..All In..
Considering that opposing DC's have discussed baiting him into picks, the fact he's had 32 picks, and that several scouts have surmised this, it is at least out there.
Are there opposing positions that claim reading defenses is a strength?
Trading up in the first round for a player that you don't intend to play for 2 or 3 years while also paying another QB huge money is completely idiotic.
i would like an OL and TE with the first 2 picks right now im leaning towards cam robinson and adam shaheen or njoku and holden maybe if njoku makes it to 23
So the first three picks will be used for potential starters, or players that will get significant playing time, liker a TE, RB, or DB......
After the third round, I doubt you can even find another Nassib....
Thanks for passing along the info
there may be more value in a 'deep' class of DL or CB, or TE, but that doesn't diminish the quality of a QB or OL available at 23. If a QB is worthy of the pick, pick him. Doesn't matter that there's no Eli in this draft class, but there might be next year. In all likelihood, we're not getting an Eli next year in the range we're hopefully picking.
His arm is good enough, isn't it? I'm just curious if he has elite numbers there or not. My impression is that he didn't have what was considered to be an elite arm when he was coming out of college, but maybe I'm wrong on that.
One evaluator said it was more along the lines of Jay Cutler, noting that the challenge was determining if Mahomes was more Favre or Cutler when it came to intangibles and leadership – not arm strength. That undertaking, along with the possibility that Mahomes may be on the draft board longer than Trubisky or Watson, has led to personal visits or workouts with more than half the NFL since the scouting combine. Among those who have done the most work on Mahomes: The Browns, Chiefs, Texans, Saints, Chargers, Cardinals, Bears, 49ers, Giants, Jets, Steelers and Bills.
Maybe the Giants have already analyzed the mechanics of Watson and know they can fix what he's doing wrong with some time. Any QB coming to the Giants is going to get some time to work on this anyway.
One of the knocks on Brady coming out was he couldn’t “drive” the ball.
Mahomes and Webb come from "air raid," "bear raid" offenses, that emphasize quick throws. That means one or two reads at most, many of which are close to the LOS. 60-65% of Webb's throws were within 10 yards of the LOS. They also have little to no experience in a huddle, or making three, five, or seven step drops.
Webb's highlights show a QB who makes some nice sideline ("rail") throws, but very few to the second and third levels. He also has some accuracy issues, and isn't a threat to scramble.
Mahomes is much more mobile, to the point where he tries to be a "hero" on every play. His awesome arm will also get him into a lot of trouble in the NFL, and may be the reason why he never developed proper footwork or mechanics. He didn't need to in college. But he will in the NFL.
Watson has a lot of the same problems. Lots of quick throws, and gets stuck on his first read. Low ball velocity. Accuracy issues. 30 INTs the last two seasons. How many of those interceptions were his fault is subject to debate. Brady's velocity may have been low when he was drafted, but he was a sixth, not a first, round pick.
Peterman and Kayaa come from a pro set offense. But Peterman is pretty close to his ceiling, and Kayaa doesn't have enough arm strength to survive the swirling winds of the Meadowlands late in the season.
Evans is just too raw. He absolutely should have gone back to school.
I still say they shouldn't draft any QB, but Seth Russell in the sixth round is fine. Assuming he's healthy, he has at least as much "upside" as Webb.
What about Kizer? He's the wildcard. His 2015 tape is quite good, and he had a lot of drops in 2016, although he could have had three or four more INTs. He reminds me of a thinner, more mobile, version of Daunte Culpepper. He's made some gorgeous throws. He's made some awful throws. I think the Steelers will take Kizer.
Here's what I think will happen:
Trubisky: Browns.
Mahomes: Cardinals.
Texans: Watson.
Steelers: Kizer.
Giants: 10-15% chance they take Mahomes, Webb, or Kizer, in that order at #23. No trade up for Mahomes.
The Giants are looking more than they have in the past, but they're still "window" shopping. It doesn't mean they're buying. Reese likes to be as certain as possible in the first round, which excludes any of these QBs. This team desperately needs DL help. Hankins is gone, and there is only the still essentially unproven Okwara behind JPP and Vernon, who played 90% of the snaps last season. That's where the pick will be, or perhaps an edge rusher.
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This team desperately needs DL help. Hankins is gone, and there is only the still essentially unproven Okwara behind JPP and Vernon, who played 90% of the snaps last season.
I don't see how you can say that a DL with JPP, Vernon, and Snacks as starters "desperately" needs DL help. If they desperately need DL help, what does it say about the level of need on OL?
I wonder if Packer fans were saying 'we better not take a QB in the first round in 2005'?
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In comment 13437331 HoustonGiant said:
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Day 3
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
Yes, wait until next year. 100% agree.
Yup, Added benefit is you will have him longer on his rookie contract as a starter vs drafting him this draft and Eli retires in 3 years
Not saying we should, but if the FO thinks that he can be special then I could see it.
Mahomes is the only guy I am somewhat intrigued about the Giaants taking. But he reminds me so much of JT Losman. Granted, Id be interested in seeing how much Eli could rub off on him. Although acouple things. I havent heard much about Eli going out of his way to mentor people whether it be QBs or his WRs and I get the impression that Mahomes' personality and Eli's are so different that they would clash.
They both said they thought the Giants were already set at QB with a great quarterback in Eli and they didn't see Giants looking for a quarterback early.
That being said the discussion turned to Watson, they both saw Watson as having no issues fitting the Giants offense. Saying he could make the necessary throws. Pat Kirwan specifically referenced the interceptions, saying that with the amount that Clemson threw the ball with him that it equated to 1 interception every 37 throws which was not a red flag by any means.
I think I would be more excited about Mahomes, just because of the upside he would present but I think some of these velocitiy numbers need to be taken in the context of a full evaluation of a prospect and not by arm chair analysts in a vacuum.
I would first put weight into what scouts thought about Watson's arm based on extensive game film evaluation. If arm strength was a red flag based on what they saw on film and the velocity numbers from the combine corroborated that concern then I would be worried. If arm strength wasn't a clear red flag based on evaluating game play then I wouldn't discount those velocity numbers but you might be able to research to come up with an idea where the disconnect may stem from.
I would liken it to the 40 times, if a player demonstrated explosive big play ability repeatedly on film and then didn't perform up to expectations in the 40 would you really toss out hours of film evidence based on results from a single day of testing? I think these concerns need to be taken within a larger context of scouting a player and not in a vacuum where fans see mph numbers and high int totals and just play a game of connect the dots
Watson threw between 44 MPH and 49 MPH that is scary bad.
The Giants may believe that they can improve on his velocity by improving his mechanics. That is a big risk. If he was a third round pick he might be worth the gamble.
If Reese were to go to Watson and the Giants were not able to fix him. It could set the Giants back years.
You always go back to the tape to check to arm because he's a gamer. Ups his level of play when the lights are on and ups it again in the clutch. With the game on the line and a throw he has to make he isn't throwing it 44 mph.
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In comment 13437369 AcidTest said:
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lack of ball velocity for Watson is particularly problematic since he'll be throwing in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands late in the season. Watson looks like a better, more mobile version of Danny Kanell. Great kid, but pass.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
With someone like Mahomes you need to trust the interview process. How coachable is? How mentally tough is he? What's your read on his maturity and leadership qualities?
Personally, I wasn't impressed by him in his youtube interview with Gruden. And this quote was a major turn-off....
Quote:
I feel like a lot of coaches like me, but especially coach O'Brien. I think my personality and how real I am, those are things beyond what I can do on the field that he likes. It seemed like the way I was answering questions, I think he knew that I knew what was going on. You can tell when coaches have a confidence in you.
He may turn out to be the next Brett Favre, but as someone earlier suggested, he may turn out to be the next Kyle Boller. And the Giants don't need to be the team to roll the dice on Schrodinger's Cat.
I'm no way advocating drafting a QB at all this year, but reading scouts notes about Mahomes is that his head is in the right place. He's like Eli in that he's a 1st in/last out kind of work ethic. If true, makes sense that the Giants would be interested. A kid with that arm talent that works that hard would be hard to pass up.
I never ever trust QB's from Texas Tech, and I am pretty sure that a NFL GM will keep that in mind as well.
They don't do things related to what a QB does in the NFL
at that school. That includes even taking a snap from center. They look to the sidelines for the play, run a
spread offense, and just throw the ball. You have 4 receivers, and here we go. Graham Harrell comes to mind
(yeah I know he was smaller), but set all kinds of records in college, wound up in the CFL, then a few years in the NFL
as a backup. They don't do a lot of reading defenses at TT.
I wouldn't take a Mahomes in the first round,
but hey Paxton Lynch was taken in the first round too...
He was also ill prepared for the NFL game coming out of Memphis, similar to TT, about how the QB 'runs' an offense.
have a burr up his saddle with the recent memorabilia BS
that has been floating around. On occasion, I wouldn't mind
if Elisha showed that same fire in hie belly on the field too.
I know it's not his nature, just saying I wouldn't mind seeing it once in a while. If the QB class s suppose to better in 2018, then wait a year. It's not like somebody is going to
play right away anyhow.
U want to pass up a Landon Collins for a guy who may not be able to ever transition. Then again maybe you are passing up a David Wilson.
To me there will be a very good
Starter level player at CB S LB or even OL. I think someone will grab Mahomes People are in love w his arm. Way before 23. Watson scares me that he has so much to learn to transion into an NFL QB when one of
Those other positions may be the missing part tona bigger playoff run
The general opinion was that he was accurate and demonstrated excellent feet. It appeared that he mastered the 3',5',7' drops.
However, there are reports from scouts such as what I read at
Walter Football..
"As for Deshaun Watson, he had an inconsistent showing. His deep ball was good, but his accuracy was underwhelming. Watson needed a great day because of numerous lingering concerns from NFL teams, as well as his poor showing in the throwing-power drill at the combine, as his ball velocity measured at just 49 mph, which was far worse than the other top quarterbacks: "