Gil Brandt was on Sirius radio this morning.
He was talking about teams that could draft a QB.
Gil suggested that the Giants were a prime candidate to select a QB. He also suggested that this is likely what the Giants will do.
Two players mentioned that the Giants may be targeting are Watson and Mahomes.
They are two completely different players.
Mahomes has rare arm talent. At his pro day, Mahomes easily threw the ball 80 yards. His velocity, at the combine, of 60 mph was the highest recorded since 2008. He is mobile and has all the attributes that you want in a QB.
However, he is very raw and will take a while to develop.
Watson is the antithesis of Mahomes in that he has a weak arm. His velocity at the combine varied from 44 mph - 49 mph. To put this in perspective since 2008, QBs who have been drafted with a 49 mph velocity include; Mike Glennon, Tonny Pike, Dan LeFavour,and Josh Johnson.The draftable threshold velocity for QBs is considered to be 55 mph.
There are some teams including the Giants who apparently do not put much stock in arm velocity. The Giants may believe that Watson has mechanical flaws that can be corrected.
I do not think that the Giants should draft a qb this year for many reasons, but, if they were I would take a chance on Mahomes.
Watson scares me.
In looking back at his games a lot of his throws are short passes less than 15 yards. His interceptions are not due to a lack of accuracy but the ball hangs. Michael Wiiliams saved Watson at least another 2-3 interceptions,by winning many contested balls.
I do not think that Watson's game translates to the NFL.
I think he is way off.
"For combine velocity measurement for QBs remember this. Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure"
"2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft traveled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window"
Not saying we should, but if the FO thinks that he can be special then I could see it.
"For combine velocity measurement for QBs remember this. Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure"
"2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft traveled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window"
Excellent points
They are considered not very strong armed but rather successful NFL QBs.
There's always an exception to the rule, but this shouldn't be ignored. When you see a guy like Dak Prescott who looks like he can't hit open WR's downfield with consistency and threw on average 9-10 mph faster than Watson, it makes you think Watson will struggle greatly throwing into tight windows.
Ball Velocity - ( New Window )
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
Sup..
Just playing devils advocate, but taking a QB this year and not having to draft a QB next year could allow for a very good player at another position to be there for us to draft in 2018 since so many QBs are projected to go high in the draft.
Also, I think we would all like to be picking 32, or at least in the back end of the draft next year. Would a trade up into the top 5 from the bottom 10 be something we would ever consider.
#DraftAnalysis
#DraftAnalysis
Agreed
Quote:
Day 3
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
Yes, wait until next year. 100% agree.
Its still a decade (and I didn't count but that must have been around 100 QB's), I wouldn't call that minuscule. There's exceptions to the rule of course, but it proves that he's going to struggle with getting zip on the ball, unless for that 1 day he just had a bad showing (doubt it). Maybe all of his other intangibles makes up for it, but that's a really big draw back on a 1st round QB, IMO.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
It's moot anyway, because they'll both be gone by #23.
The Giants shouldn't take any QB this year, but if they insist, then make it Seth Russell of Baylor on day three. He has a lot of the same qualities as Mahomes, but because of injuries in 2015 and 2016, can be had much later in the draft. The Giants met with him. He should be the target. Not Watson, Mahomes, Kizer, Webb, Trubisky, Peterman, Evans, Kayaa, or anyone else.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
Personally, I wasn't impressed by him in his youtube interview with Gruden. And this quote was a major turn-off....
It was determined by Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network's analytics specialist, that Watson had the least to work with in terms of receiver 'separation' among the elite cadre of this Draft's QB's. Curious how he was so statistically prolific in that scenario with such a lack of arm strength.
He also ranked 6th in the nation in adjusted completion percentage beyond 20 yards downfield. How do you account for that with his deficient arm talent?
I could go on but by now you get the point. I hope.
I'm not saying i'm right and your wrong at all. I could absolutely be wrong. But to dismiss his ball velocity so casually seems pretty careless from a talent evaluation standpoint.
The rest of his game is everything I'd want in our next QB, but this is a pretty glaring drawback.
Quote:
Day 3
Wouldn't you rather wait a year, see what happens with Geno, then draft a QB next year in a QB rich draft? I would wait.
+1
That is exactly what I was thinking. It feels like they're rushing it.
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lack of ball velocity for Watson is particularly problematic since he'll be throwing in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands late in the season. Watson looks like a better, more mobile version of Danny Kanell. Great kid, but pass.
Mahomes is the classic "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Terrible mechanics and footwork. Great arm, but Kyle Boller once threw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. He was drafted in the first round. Couldn't play.
With someone like Mahomes you need to trust the interview process. How coachable is? How mentally tough is he? What's your read on his maturity and leadership qualities?
Personally, I wasn't impressed by him in his youtube interview with Gruden. And this quote was a major turn-off....
Quote:
I feel like a lot of coaches like me, but especially coach O'Brien. I think my personality and how real I am, those are things beyond what I can do on the field that he likes. It seemed like the way I was answering questions, I think he knew that I knew what was going on. You can tell when coaches have a confidence in you.
He may turn out to be the next Brett Favre, but as someone earlier suggested, he may turn out to be the next Kyle Boller. And the Giants don't need to be the team to roll the dice on Schrodinger's Cat.
I'm no way advocating drafting a QB at all this year, but reading scouts notes about Mahomes is that his head is in the right place. He's like Eli in that he's a 1st in/last out kind of work ethic. If true, makes sense that the Giants would be interested. A kid with that arm talent that works that hard would be hard to pass up.
Basically, in most drafts he is a mid-round pick and several scouts have him as a 3rd round pick or lower.
Most QB's have weaknesses coming into the NFL, but Watson's are more fundamentally difficult to correct than others. Is he going to throw the ball harder? Is he going to read defense well all of a sudden? Is he going to not get fooled by a CB feinting playing zone?
I've heard him compared to Dak because of Prescott's success as a rookie, yet even there the comparison is flawed when it comes to INT's and accuracy:
Watson has some strengths for the NFL that cause many to compare him to Dak Prescott. Like Prescott, Watson has great intangibles as a hard worker with good character off the field and leadership in the locker room. They both bring toughness and mobility to the table. When plays break down, they can use his athleticism to pick up yards on the ground and also can avoid sacks.
Where the comparison breaks down is in terms of accuracy and ball security. Prescott was much more accurate in college and threw far less interceptions. Prescott threw only five interceptions as a senior with 11 as a junior. Thus, Watson threw more interceptions (17) in 2016 than Prescott did in his final two years combined.
There are a lot of growth issues that Watson will need development for in the NFL - aside from his passing skills. Watson is also going to need to learn how to work under center, call plays in a huddle, and develop his footwork to make drops from being under center. His college offense has a lot of quick throws, screens, and designed runs that inflated his numbers but don't translate to the NFL. Some NFL sources believe that Watson is going to need his pro offense to be catered to him and that he could have issues fitting a NFL system.
In speaking with sources from teams around the NFL, their grades on Watson didn't match the media hype that he has received. I surveyed many teams to see where their initial draft grades were for Watson. Two playoff teams told me they had third-round grades on Watson. One said it was on the low end as a third- to fourth-rounder. Another playoff team told Walt that they had a third-round grade on Watson. Two other teams said they had second-round grades on Watson. All that being said, teams believe that Watson could be a late first-round quarterback, similar to Teddy Bridgewater, because of the dire need at the position across the NFL. A team could move back into the first round for Watson like Bridgewater. A general manager of an AFC team said that in the draft meetings in April, Watson will benefit from the 'Dak Prescott effect' and rise. Thus, it wouldn't surprise anyone if Watson is taken in the middle of the first round during the 2017 NFL Draft.
How do you know he's "really poor" at reading defenses? He has a lot of picks, but conversely, he has a lot of TD's. Had a 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio last year. The design of the offense kind of limits his reads, but you can pretty much say that about a lot of QB's coming out.
I'm no way advocating drafting a QB at all this year, but reading scouts notes about Mahomes is that his head is in the right place. He's like Eli in that he's a 1st in/last out kind of work ethic. If true, makes sense that the Giants would be interested. A kid with that arm talent that works that hard would be hard to pass up.
32 INTs..Great, a penchant just like our mediocre QB..Perfect..All In..
Considering that opposing DC's have discussed baiting him into picks, the fact he's had 32 picks, and that several scouts have surmised this, it is at least out there.
Are there opposing positions that claim reading defenses is a strength?
Trading up in the first round for a player that you don't intend to play for 2 or 3 years while also paying another QB huge money is completely idiotic.
i would like an OL and TE with the first 2 picks right now im leaning towards cam robinson and adam shaheen or njoku and holden maybe if njoku makes it to 23
So the first three picks will be used for potential starters, or players that will get significant playing time, liker a TE, RB, or DB......
After the third round, I doubt you can even find another Nassib....
Thanks for passing along the info
there may be more value in a 'deep' class of DL or CB, or TE, but that doesn't diminish the quality of a QB or OL available at 23. If a QB is worthy of the pick, pick him. Doesn't matter that there's no Eli in this draft class, but there might be next year. In all likelihood, we're not getting an Eli next year in the range we're hopefully picking.