Jerry Reese has been the GM since the 2007 draft. I went back through my library of draft material to see how his first round picks stacked up against some of the "experts" that you can find in print and on the interweb, namely: Nolan Nawrocki, Ourlad's, Mel Kiper and Frank Coyle's Draft Insider. I looked at it two ways. Jerry's pick vs. the highest rated player that each service had AT THE SAME POSITION. Also, just looking at the highest rated player that each service had available on our pick.
Here are the results for 2007.
Jerry chose: CB - Aaron Ross
Both Nawrocki and Kiper listed Ross as their best CB available. Ourlad's and Coyle had Chris Houston as the best CB.
Both played in the league for seven years, Ross played in 83 games, 52 as a starter. Houston played in 99 games, 91 as a starter. Neither made a pro-bowl. So just based on production, Houston has the edge.
As far as the best available player goes, all four services rated QB - Brady Quinn as the highest rated player. Given that the Giants in 2007 had Eli at his peak, it is doubtful that they would draft a QB in the first round, so I looked at the next player on their list. Nawrocki and Ourlad's both had DE - Alan Branch rated as the best player. Kiper and Coyle both liked TE - Greg Olsen.
Branch was drafted by the Cardinals and in four years only started three games. But he has played six more years in the league for the Seahawks, Bills, and Patriots
starting 77 games and has played on two Superbowl teams
Greg Olsen was drafted by the bears and started 39 games in four years before being traded to the Panthers where he has started all but three games over six years. He was on the all rookie team, made three pro-bowls and was all-pro twice.
So this round goes to Frank Coyle who would have us taken Greg Olsen as the best player available or Chis Houston as the best CB on the board.
Next up, the 2008 draft on this thread.
Nolan Nawrocki, Ourlad's and Frank Coyle all had Phillips as the best safety available on our pick. Mel Kiper had Tyrell Johnson, who played five years for the Vikings and Lions and started 27 of 80 possible games. So even with his injuries, Phillips was the better player.
Oddly, Nawrocki, Ourlad's, and Kiper all had DE Phillip Merling and the best player available. Coyle had WR - Limas Sweed as the BPA. Merling played six years in the league and stared five, count them, five games. Sweed played just two years for the Steelers and was waived injured after an achilles injury.
Only Kiper blew the DB pick, but everyone missed on the best available.
The 2009 draft was pretty easy.
Jerry selected WR - Hakeem Nicks who was a significant started for the Giants and played one year for the Colts.
All four services listed Nicks as the best receiver available.
Ourlad's thought that RB - Beenie Wells was the best player available. He played four seasons for the Cardinals but due to injuries was only productive in one year.
Frank Coyle liked DE - Everett Brown who was drafted by the Panthers and played for three other teams in a five year career. Started just 3 games.
Nawrocki and Kiper each had LB- Rey Maualuga as the BPA.
He has played 8 years for the Bengals, and has started 104 games. He wa just released this past March.
Points to Nawrocki and Kiper for their judgements.
It's past my bedtime, so 2010 tomorrow morning.
Starting corner on 2 SB teams. Yeah, he wasn't great especially by 2011 but corners don't grow on trees. If we didn't have him, we would have to spend resources on someone for that spot And we had a very good, relatively young TE in 2007 so why would we take Olsen in the first?
Only Frank Coyle had Pierre-Paul rated as the best DE available. All the other services had Derrick Morgan as the best DE. Morgan was drafted by the Titans and has been a significant starter for them for seven years at DE and later OLB. Pierre-Paul was the better choice, but both have been good players.
The BPA was all over the place. Mel Kiper had Morgan as his BPA. Ourlad's and Frank Coyle had ORT - Brian Beluga, a consistent starter for the Packers. Narwocki had Dez Bryant as his BPA.
In 2011 Jerry drafted another corner - Prince Amukamara.
He played five year for the Giants but only one full year. Last year he played in 14 games for the Jaguars starting 12.
All four services had Amukamara listed as their best corner available on our pick.
As far as the best player available, all four services listed DE - Da'Quan Bowers. Bowers was drafted by the Bucs and played 5 years for them starting in only 10 games (six as a rookie). He is one of the notable first round "busts" of the last ten years.
However, there was a fair amount of disagreement among the services on the best running back available. Ourlad's and Nawrocki also liked Wilson. Mel Kiper like LaMichael James who only played in 18 games over five seasons for the 49'ers and Dolphins. Frank Coyle listed Lamar Miller as the best available back who has been a productive back for the Dolphins and Texans.
Looking at the best overall player.
Ourlad's had DE - Andre Branch who has started 23 games in five years for the Dolphins and Jaguars.
Kiper like Courtney Upshaw, a solid DE for the Ravens and Falcons
Frank Coyle liked OT - Jonathan Martin who had a short career due to injury and other issues.
Nawrocki listed OL - Cordy Glenn who has been a solid starter for the Bills.
With the 19th pick in the draft, Jerry selected Justin Pugh who has played both tackle and guard for the Giants.
In previous years, we have seen at least some agreement with their picks, but not this time. None of the services rated Pugh any higher than a borderline 1'st round pick and more likely a second round pick. Some ranked him lower than the Giants second round pick - Jonathon Hankins.
Also, there was some disagreement on where he would play.
Nawrocki listed him as both a LT and LG but suggested he would wind up inside. Kiper and Ourlad's had him as a guard. Frank Coyle listed him as a tackle, but also suggested that he might move into guard.
Frank Coyle saw him as the best OL available, but only the 32nd best player overall
Ourlad's rated Terron Armstead as the best OL available but only as the 35th best player available at that time. He has been a starter for the Saints.
Kiper rated Kyle Longs as the best lineman available and he is the winner of this group as a three time pro bowl guard.
Nawrocki had two players tied. Kyle Long and Brian Winters who has started 41 games at guard over four years for the Jets.
For the best available player.
Ourlad's actually had Geno Smith as the #1 player in the draft. But with Eli entrenched, they had Sharif Floyd as the best player available. Kiper and Coyle also had Floyd as the best player and he has been productive to this point but injury may have a big impact on his future.
Nawrocki had DT - Sylvester Williams as the BPA. He has been a productive starter for the Broncos.
This was Jerry's biggest reach in the first round and it did not work out at tackle, but they did get a serviceable player at guard.
We feel that way because it's true. Zero problems with his first round picks. Wilson got hurt. Flowers may be his first whiff (still hope). Later rounds from '08-'14 or so not only not yielding the occasional gem but a dearth of even serviceable players. Hopefully he's turned the corner with a deep '16 draft. We'll see.
Giants took Odell Beckham who has made three pro-bowls in three years.
Ourlad's, Frank Coyle, and Mel Kiper all had Beckham as the best receiver available. Nolan Nawrocki had kelvin Benjamin rated ahead of Odell. Benjamin lost 2015 to injury but has been very productive in his two other years. But not to the level of Beckham.
Coyle also had Beckham as his best player overall.
Kiper had three time pro bowl guard - Zach Martin as his best player overall
Nawrocki had two time pro bowl linebacker - C. J. Mosley as his best player overall.
Ourlad's missed the mark as they rated CB - Darqueze Dennard as their BPA. He has been a reserve player with the Bengals.
All four services had OT - Andrus Peat rated as their top tackle prospect at our pick. Peat has started 23 games, mostly at guard, for the Saints, but has been nothing special so far.
Here are the BPA's that each service listed at our pick.
Frank Coyle and Ourlad's had DT - Danny Shelton who has started 31 of 32 games for the Browns.
Nawrocki had Todd Gurley who was offensive rookie of the year and made the pro bowl in 2015, but slipped somewhat last year.
Kiper had WR - Devante Parker, and the Dolphins are still waiting for him to do something.
All four services rated Vernon Hargreaves as the top corner available on our pick. Apple made 11 starts, played in 14 games, had 41 tackles, 10 assists, 7 pass defends and 1 int. Hargreaves started all 16 games, had 68 tackles, 8 assists, 9 pass defends and 1 int. At this point the biggest difference is that Hargreaves just played more than Apple.
For the best available player.
Coyle, Kiper, and Nawrocki all had Laremy Tunsil as the best player available. You will recall that at one point, he was regarded as the best player in the draft, but a pre draft video dropped him down. He started 14 games at guard for the Dolphins. Tunsil is penciled in at left tackle for this year.
Ourlad's rated OLB - Myles Jack as the best player available. He was coming off surgery and dropped down in the draft. He played in all 16 games his rookie year and started 10. Should continue to improve as he moves past the injury.
So that's a recap of Jerry Reese's drafts vs. the "experts".
I will post the details of this year's draft on Thursday.