I wanted to look and see how people should expect the targets to go. I know a big point of contention - at least early on after the draft - has been the idea that Engram being the pick was a poor choice not just because he's weak as an inline blocker, but because if he's on the field, either Marshall or Shepard are going to be limited in their opportunities.
I don't necessarily agree with this point or at least the depiction of the pick as more supplementary of what was already a strength rather than complementary and therefore more of a productive pick.
Regardless, focusing on passing targets, I looked at Eli's distribution under the McAdoo system, and then at the allocation of targets by position. Obviously, it's a limited sample, since McAdoo's system has only been in place since 2014. But there are a few tendencies. The results of which would indicate that there was a drop off in raw production from the TE group and that the addition of Engram should at least bolster that group, even if the opportunities (i.e. targets) given to that group remain relatively unchanged.
The first thing to note about the passing opportunities under the McAdoo offense is that Eli gets roughly 600 passes over the course of a season +/-20 versus 400-450 running plays (37.5 passing opportunities per game). Under the Gilbride system, Eli had a career high of 581 throws (he was usually under 550), which is the fourth most in his career, behind only the last three years of McAdoo's offense. Given that the offense is so different, I opted to only look at the McAdoo distributions. So, I looked through the past three years to see how the targets breakdown by position. I also wrote down the cumulative production of those groups by year.
Breaking down the 600:
TIGHT ENDS:
All tight ends can expect to combine to have roughly 120 targets or around 7.5 targets per game. (119 in 2014, 129 in 2015, 113 in 2016)
2014: 861 yards on 84 catches 10.25 ypc 11 TD
2015: 828 yards on 88 catches 9.41 ypc 5 TD
2016: 609 yards on 79 catches 7.71 ypc 3 TD |
RUNNING BACKS:
All running backs can expect to combine to have roughly 120 targets or around 7.5 targets per game (100 in 2014, 129 in 2015, 114 in 2016)
2014: 469 yards on 62 catches 7.56 ypc 0 TD
2015: 829 yards on 129 catches 6.43 ypc 5 TD
2016: 622 yards on 83 catches 7.49 ypc 1 TD |
WIDE RECEIVERS (minus Beckham):
2, 3, 4, 5 receivers can expect to combine to have roughly 200 targets or around 12.5 targets per game (250 in 2014, 198 in 2015, 201 in 2016)
2014: 1835 yards on 146 catches 12.57 ypc 7 TD
2015: 1408 yards on 115 catches 12.24 ypc 13 TD
2016: 1429 yards on 114 catches 12.54 ypc 12 TD |
ODELL BECKHAM:
Beckham can expect to have roughly 160 targets or around 10 targets per game (130 in 2014/10.8 per game, 158 in 2015/10.5 per game, 169 in 2016/10.6 per game)
2014: 1305 yards on 91 catches 14.3 ypc 12 TD
2015: 1450 yards on 96 catches 15.1 ypc 13 TD
2016: 1367 yards on 101 catches 13.5 ypc 10 TD |
I also wanted to point out that in 2014, when our TEs produced best under Mac, Donnell and Fells both played all 16 games. Donnell ended up with 92 targets (including 6 TDs), while Fells ended up with 20 targets (including 4 TDs), so I wouldn't be surprised to see similar breakdowns based on Engram and Ellison's skillsets.
Even Adrien Robinson played every game (and ended up with 7 targets including a TD). So, I wouldn't be surprised if Adams got in on the fun as well.
If the Giants can win the time of possession by not going 3-and-out so often, the offense will get a lot more opportunities and best of all, the defense improves because they aren't worn down from being on the field for so many minutes.
Anything this team can do to keep the ball in their possession improves both sides of the ball.
Last years high rate of passing on 'conversion downs' (3rd and 4th downs) which predictably lead to some 'QB under pressure' situations and 'chuck and duck' s.
So, the circular bit; a conversation long had on BBI, is that the % of 'who gets passes' also leads back to 'time of possession', as posted right above, and therefor to the run game ...and therefore to run blocking.
I am actually fairly optimistic, though, part of that was play calling, and part the RBs, and so may be still very fixable even w/out the big run blockers.
and I could see a lot of delay of game penalties on Eli...
'' will the new tools enable or allow coach to justify, to himself, running the full playbook, and to what extent will this allow the run game to return? ''
(and it does look like they are trying to create a 'full playbook type roster' right now, at least with regards to those 'players that have the ball in their hands' type positions, RBs, TE's. WR's, however: )
Coach Mac played it annoyingly close to the vest last year, given the great defense he could justify that, but it was not an attractive type of football on the offensive side:
- high risk, yes, high reward at times, but roll the dice on keeping drives going, thus the T.O.P. situation and the quandary within this thread:
Running cures what ails you, especially when it is integrated into the pass game to leverage both run and pass.
Conversely:
If you see more outside zone runs, play action returning as 'a thing', EE run blocking from the slot and taking his turn at move the chains, in addition to being integrated into all that as a receiver of some kind, ....expect more wins?
sort of like fast break basketball and ally oops, fun but simplistic in a sense.
If 68 represents optimum efficiency - ideally you would see a balance of 28 runs to 40 passes per game
but it still all really depends on the defence you are facing
if you have 40 pass attempts the distribution probably looks like
- 7-12 are going to the TE depending on matchups
- 7-10 dump offs to the RBs
- 21-26 are going to the WRs
- but you are going to target the WRs/TEs with the best matchups - which is going to differ from game to game --
the point is -- the dominant receiver du jour is dictated on matchups and the defence being faced
If you have 4 strong receiver options -- your targeted number of passes won't nec change -- it's your actual # of receptions that might actually change -- you still want to ideally spread it around
Why not?
The issue of % of plays tough and being fully integrated into the O; it may be that, as some of you are saying, he appears more like a specialist and variety type player early in the season, and, if he holds up, becomes more integrated into the base O as time goes on.
I can't wait to see this offense together. Literally unstoppable / impossible to match up with as long as Eli has time to deliver
Odell Marshall Shepard Engram Vereen ... good luck
If you believe OBJ, Marshall, Shep, and Engram are all plus matchups then you want them on the field together as much as possible. If Engram can't play inline it limits the Giants ability to keep all of them on the field. We'll see soon enough.
WILL TYE.. thats who.. and thats a good thing..
And I like Sterling Shepard, but I'm not, after one year, ready to say he's the type of player that you need to get the ball to as much as possible.
I wouldn't worry about targets at all.
Are they averages of the three years?
Are they your subjective takes from the three years?
I just don't get how they were derived
So, I weighed the averages more than anything, but looking at, e.g. the RB distribution, I noticed that personnel seemed to have a major impact on explaining why there was such variation in the number of targets.
So, with RBs, the targets jumped from 100 in 2014 to 129 in 2015. That is explained by the addition of Vereen in FA. So, if you hold Vereen as the dependent variable, it also explains why you'd have a decrease in 2016 (114), since Vereen was injured for most of the season.
Thus, given the assumption that Vereen gets significantly more playing time in 2017, we can expect the RB group to have closer to the 129 number, but I shaved it a bit and said 120, to be safe.
Similar ideas went into it with the WRs.
In 2014, the WRs other than Beckham had 250 targets, but the next two years they were nearly identical (198 and 201). So, if you look at the personnel in 2014, you remember that Beckham missed a quarter of the games. Also, I broke down Beckham's numbers a little differently (by including the per game targets). Beckham is consistently targeted at around the 10.65 targets per game range every year, even including his rookie year.
So, Beckham's numbers here are an underestimate if anything (the 170 target number is more inline with what we've seen), but I figure between the drafting of Engram in the first round (seemingly a statement in itself about how they expect to target him as a TE) and the re-emergence of Vereen in the passing game, we might see a slight dip in the total targets on Beckham. But, then we're talking about 10 or so targets over the course of a season being the estimated difference.
But, getting back to your question, doing straight averages, WR targets would be a lot higher, but I think 2014 is an outlier due to Beckham missing significant time. So, I expect the 200 target number to hold relatively steady.
Sorry that's a typo. It was 91-129.
WILL TYE.. thats who.. and thats a good thing..
I think this is a really good point.
The same holds for Larry Donnell, Bobby Rainey, Roger Lewis, Tavarres King, Dwayne Harris, and even Victor Cruz. With those numbers plunging, we'll have plenty to go around to Marshall and Engram (and Shepard).
The good thing is that our STARTERS are going to be the ones fighting for targets. Cruz averaged 15 ypc last year. Marshall should be having a ball playing that outside spot with a gun slinger like Eli behind center.
This is how Engram is going to help the running game. He simply cannot be guarded by a LB - full stop. He probably can't be guarded by most safeties, either. So you put him on the field on first down in your 11 personnel and the defense has to take not only one but probably two LB'ers off the field to account for Shepard and Engram. Either that or good luck guarding Engram.
+1,000. And we won't have Cruz being a non-factor either.
We could easily score 19 more points a game this season...
Better be more than that, most times
I tend to agree. But Engram and Shepard are going to have to really produce to scare teams away from that C2. Remember, Beckham is a TD risk every time he touches the ball.
I actually think Engram and Shep are going to be the big winners this year. Teams will stay in that Beckham shell and I really think Engram slices up the middle of the field. Shep I think will get a lot more downfield opportunities, but Engram ripping up LBs will happen unless je is just KILLING teams. Then they will move from that Cover 2.
Who is going to block better?
I'm hoping that they count wins
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If the OL keeps him on his feet, he will find the open guy. I think OBJ will be the biggest beneficiary as the off-season acquisitions appear in part to make it more difficult on other teams to use the cover-2 and double up on OBJ.
I tend to agree. But Engram and Shepard are going to have to really produce to scare teams away from that C2. Remember, Beckham is a TD risk every time he touches the ball.
I actually think Engram and Shep are going to be the big winners this year. Teams will stay in that Beckham shell and I really think Engram slices up the middle of the field. Shep I think will get a lot more downfield opportunities, but Engram ripping up LBs will happen unless je is just KILLING teams. Then they will move from that Cover 2.
Honestly, I don't think it's going to take much to get teams to think differently. It's not even about Engram so much as Marshall. The Beckham Slant is a money play even against the C2 they've faced, but now you have Marshall out there, who because of his size is never really covered, and he also is fearless across the middle of the field. Other than maybe Aqib Talib, there are very few CBs in the league that's physical enough to face up Brandon Marshall and jam him off his timing.
That's even before you factor in a TE that can storm down the seam and has sideline to sideline speed. The cover-2 only worked against the Giants because defenses had to stop just one player.
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In comment 13471660 Beer Man said:
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If the OL keeps him on his feet, he will find the open guy. I think OBJ will be the biggest beneficiary as the off-season acquisitions appear in part to make it more difficult on other teams to use the cover-2 and double up on OBJ.
I tend to agree. But Engram and Shepard are going to have to really produce to scare teams away from that C2. Remember, Beckham is a TD risk every time he touches the ball.
I actually think Engram and Shep are going to be the big winners this year. Teams will stay in that Beckham shell and I really think Engram slices up the middle of the field. Shep I think will get a lot more downfield opportunities, but Engram ripping up LBs will happen unless je is just KILLING teams. Then they will move from that Cover 2.
Honestly, I don't think it's going to take much to get teams to think differently. It's not even about Engram so much as Marshall. The Beckham Slant is a money play even against the C2 they've faced, but now you have Marshall out there, who because of his size is never really covered, and he also is fearless across the middle of the field. Other than maybe Aqib Talib, there are very few CBs in the league that's physical enough to face up Brandon Marshall and jam him off his timing.
That's even before you factor in a TE that can storm down the seam and has sideline to sideline speed. The cover-2 only worked against the Giants because defenses had to stop just one player.
And until EE actually does those things, they still only have one guy to stop.
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"Should Have" target numbers -- how did you derive those figures from the position targets?
Are they averages of the three years?
Are they your subjective takes from the three years?
I just don't get how they were derived
So, I weighed the averages more than anything, but looking at, e.g. the RB distribution, I noticed that personnel seemed to have a major impact on explaining why there was such variation in the number of targets.
So, with RBs, the targets jumped from 100 in 2014 to 129 in 2015. That is explained by the addition of Vereen in FA. So, if you hold Vereen as the dependent variable, it also explains why you'd have a decrease in 2016 (114), since Vereen was injured for most of the season.
Thus, given the assumption that Vereen gets significantly more playing time in 2017, we can expect the RB group to have closer to the 129 number, but I shaved it a bit and said 120, to be safe.
Similar ideas went into it with the WRs.
In 2014, the WRs other than Beckham had 250 targets, but the next two years they were nearly identical (198 and 201). So, if you look at the personnel in 2014, you remember that Beckham missed a quarter of the games. Also, I broke down Beckham's numbers a little differently (by including the per game targets). Beckham is consistently targeted at around the 10.65 targets per game range every year, even including his rookie year.
So, Beckham's numbers here are an underestimate if anything (the 170 target number is more inline with what we've seen), but I figure between the drafting of Engram in the first round (seemingly a statement in itself about how they expect to target him as a TE) and the re-emergence of Vereen in the passing game, we might see a slight dip in the total targets on Beckham. But, then we're talking about 10 or so targets over the course of a season being the estimated difference.
But, getting back to your question, doing straight averages, WR targets would be a lot higher, but I think 2014 is an outlier due to Beckham missing significant time. So, I expect the 200 target number to hold relatively steady.
Extremely well thought out logic and post. Thanks.
Thanks again.
I didn't address this exactly, but the reason Odell only had 130 targets in 2014 was due to games played, not because he was targeted less frequently. He only played 12 games, but his targets percentage was higher in that season (10.8) than any other season since (10.65 career average). So, the only way I could see Odell having 130 targets would be because he misses time on IR.
I also see Eli dumping the ball more to RB Perkins and RB Vereen as they will be easy pass connections due to our skill guys drawing coverages. Eli needs to be SMART with the ball and not turn it over.
This team will be about solid specials; solid defense & turnovers; and, hopefully an effective offense, taking a page out of New England's playbook where they just were you down with high completion and fewere 3 and outs.
Thanks again.
as to brutal reactions -- don't let that stop you -- I hope I wasn't brutal -- I just didn't understand how you came to your target conclusions -- I did think the data was well laid out --and I appreciate your subsequent explanation about it - when I went through your numbers I couldn't derive all of the same means
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In comment 13472255 chopperhatch said:
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In comment 13471660 Beer Man said:
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If the OL keeps him on his feet, he will find the open guy. I think OBJ will be the biggest beneficiary as the off-season acquisitions appear in part to make it more difficult on other teams to use the cover-2 and double up on OBJ.
I tend to agree. But Engram and Shepard are going to have to really produce to scare teams away from that C2. Remember, Beckham is a TD risk every time he touches the ball.
I actually think Engram and Shep are going to be the big winners this year. Teams will stay in that Beckham shell and I really think Engram slices up the middle of the field. Shep I think will get a lot more downfield opportunities, but Engram ripping up LBs will happen unless je is just KILLING teams. Then they will move from that Cover 2.
Honestly, I don't think it's going to take much to get teams to think differently. It's not even about Engram so much as Marshall. The Beckham Slant is a money play even against the C2 they've faced, but now you have Marshall out there, who because of his size is never really covered, and he also is fearless across the middle of the field. Other than maybe Aqib Talib, there are very few CBs in the league that's physical enough to face up Brandon Marshall and jam him off his timing.
That's even before you factor in a TE that can storm down the seam and has sideline to sideline speed. The cover-2 only worked against the Giants because defenses had to stop just one player.
And until EE actually does those things, they still only have one guy to stop.
Again, Marshall and Beckham.
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
Jimmy Googs : 5/15/2017 7:04 pm : link : reply
the run.
Who is going to block better?
If you have TE's/WR's that can actually block, and prevent linebackers/db's from blowing up the play before it gets started, it increases your chances of running the ball, better.....
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I'll post more of these if they occur to me. I get nervous sometimes with how brutal reactions can be. lol.
Thanks again.
as to brutal reactions -- don't let that stop you -- I hope I wasn't brutal -- I just didn't understand how you came to your target conclusions -- I did think the data was well laid out --and I appreciate your subsequent explanation about it - when I went through your numbers I couldn't derive all of the same means
No. Not at all. I appreciated the question. Thanks for helping me clarify. It sounded like others benefited as well.
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
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Will Tye last year had 70 targets.. SEVENTY !!!! Donnell had 22 targets..
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
I think TE Engram will create mis-matches and his speed must be accounted for every snap. Eli will go to Engram if a slower LB is over him.
But I see this offense being about "take what the defene gives you...most plays" and that means also throwing to guys like Tye, Perkins, Vereen, Adams, Ellison, whomever is wide open and easy.
I watched what the Patriots did in the SB and at half-time they had a 2 to 1 play ratio over ATL and were in the process of wearing them down. I think this offense can do the same thing because we have a solid defense to carry us as well as what should be solid specials for the battle of field position.
I think Brandon Marshall will still beat "one on one" coverage against #2 corners. He is a key addition due to his redzone abilities. Camp will be telling as he is 33 now and had the dropsies last year but the Jets sucked overall so maybe we shouldn't read into it too much.
Simply put, I see Eli spreading the ball around a lot. OBJ will be targeted cause he's a top 5 WR talent, yes, but Eli will also play it smart this year due to his multiple options and spread the ball around to the easy, open guy.
For example, I would not be shocked if our RB's caught 90 balls combined as they come out into the flat uncovered. Or our slot guys catching well over 100 short balls as they curl to the open space ala New England style.
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In comment 13472905 blueblood said:
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Will Tye last year had 70 targets.. SEVENTY !!!! Donnell had 22 targets..
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
Good points on targets. Clearly, though older now I have to believe Brandon Marshall is a big upgrade over Victor Cruz, especially in the redzone.
I think TE Engram will create mis-matches and his speed must be accounted for every snap. Eli will go to Engram if a slower LB is over him.
But I see this offense being about "take what the defene gives you...most plays" and that means also throwing to guys like Tye, Perkins, Vereen, Adams, Ellison, whomever is wide open and easy.
I watched what the Patriots did in the SB and at half-time they had a 2 to 1 play ratio over ATL and were in the process of wearing them down. I think this offense can do the same thing because we have a solid defense to carry us as well as what should be solid specials for the battle of field position.
I think Brandon Marshall will still beat "one on one" coverage against #2 corners. He is a key addition due to his redzone abilities. Camp will be telling as he is 33 now and had the dropsies last year but the Jets sucked overall so maybe we shouldn't read into it too much.
Simply put, I see Eli spreading the ball around a lot. OBJ will be targeted cause he's a top 5 WR talent, yes, but Eli will also play it smart this year due to his multiple options and spread the ball around to the easy, open guy.
For example, I would not be shocked if our RB's caught 90 balls combined as they come out into the flat uncovered. Or our slot guys catching well over 100 short balls as they curl to the open space ala New England style.
Glad to see you around more these days, SG.
And, I agree with all your points. It'll be really interesting to see how the offense takes, because for the first time with Beckham, we seem to have pro caliber starters at all the other offensive playmaking positions, in the sense that I think we might be able to score even if Beckham goes down.
I hope we get to see Shep take a step up this year too. He had a great rookie season, leading the team in catch percentage among WRs and scoring 8 TDs. But, if he can show improvement after the catch and show some explosive ability, he'll be reaping the benefits of an improved core of guys.
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In comment 13473274 adamg said:
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In comment 13472905 blueblood said:
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Will Tye last year had 70 targets.. SEVENTY !!!! Donnell had 22 targets..
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
Good points on targets. Clearly, though older now I have to believe Brandon Marshall is a big upgrade over Victor Cruz, especially in the redzone.
I think TE Engram will create mis-matches and his speed must be accounted for every snap. Eli will go to Engram if a slower LB is over him.
But I see this offense being about "take what the defene gives you...most plays" and that means also throwing to guys like Tye, Perkins, Vereen, Adams, Ellison, whomever is wide open and easy.
I watched what the Patriots did in the SB and at half-time they had a 2 to 1 play ratio over ATL and were in the process of wearing them down. I think this offense can do the same thing because we have a solid defense to carry us as well as what should be solid specials for the battle of field position.
I think Brandon Marshall will still beat "one on one" coverage against #2 corners. He is a key addition due to his redzone abilities. Camp will be telling as he is 33 now and had the dropsies last year but the Jets sucked overall so maybe we shouldn't read into it too much.
Simply put, I see Eli spreading the ball around a lot. OBJ will be targeted cause he's a top 5 WR talent, yes, but Eli will also play it smart this year due to his multiple options and spread the ball around to the easy, open guy.
For example, I would not be shocked if our RB's caught 90 balls combined as they come out into the flat uncovered. Or our slot guys catching well over 100 short balls as they curl to the open space ala New England style.
Glad to see you around more these days, SG.
And, I agree with all your points. It'll be really interesting to see how the offense takes, because for the first time with Beckham, we seem to have pro caliber starters at all the other offensive playmaking positions, in the sense that I think we might be able to score even if Beckham goes down.
I hope we get to see Shep take a step up this year too. He had a great rookie season, leading the team in catch percentage among WRs and scoring 8 TDs. But, if he can show improvement after the catch and show some explosive ability, he'll be reaping the benefits of an improved core of guys.
Shep must improve his YAC abilities, for sure, and he is quick so we'll see. But if Eli can get that .3 to .4 more seconds a snap due to improved OL play that would be the big difference maker for this offense.
In summary from my perspective, this will be a year where Eli simply throws to the uncovered or wideopen guy to keep the chains moving. New England takes what the defense gives them and Brady is so damn accurate that it is a crime. Eli won't be Brady BUT he can be much better with improved weapons. So long as we stay healthy, the ball will be spread around and we'll score more in the redzone than in any of McAdoo's years this year.