I wanted to look and see how people should expect the targets to go. I know a big point of contention - at least early on after the draft - has been the idea that Engram being the pick was a poor choice not just because he's weak as an inline blocker, but because if he's on the field, either Marshall or Shepard are going to be limited in their opportunities.
I don't necessarily agree with this point or at least the depiction of the pick as more supplementary of what was already a strength rather than complementary and therefore more of a productive pick.
Regardless, focusing on passing targets, I looked at Eli's distribution under the McAdoo system, and then at the allocation of targets by position. Obviously, it's a limited sample, since McAdoo's system has only been in place since 2014. But there are a few tendencies. The results of which would indicate that there was a drop off in raw production from the TE group and that the addition of Engram should at least bolster that group, even if the opportunities (i.e. targets) given to that group remain relatively unchanged.
The first thing to note about the passing opportunities under the McAdoo offense is that Eli gets roughly 600 passes over the course of a season +/-20 versus 400-450 running plays (37.5 passing opportunities per game). Under the Gilbride system, Eli had a career high of 581 throws (he was usually under 550), which is the fourth most in his career, behind only the last three years of McAdoo's offense. Given that the offense is so different, I opted to only look at the McAdoo distributions. So, I looked through the past three years to see how the targets breakdown by position. I also wrote down the cumulative production of those groups by year.
Breaking down the 600:
TIGHT ENDS:
All tight ends can expect to combine to have roughly 120 targets or around 7.5 targets per game. (119 in 2014, 129 in 2015, 113 in 2016)
2014: 861 yards on 84 catches 10.25 ypc 11 TD
2015: 828 yards on 88 catches 9.41 ypc 5 TD
2016: 609 yards on 79 catches 7.71 ypc 3 TD |
RUNNING BACKS:
All running backs can expect to combine to have roughly 120 targets or around 7.5 targets per game (100 in 2014, 129 in 2015, 114 in 2016)
2014: 469 yards on 62 catches 7.56 ypc 0 TD
2015: 829 yards on 129 catches 6.43 ypc 5 TD
2016: 622 yards on 83 catches 7.49 ypc 1 TD |
WIDE RECEIVERS (minus Beckham):
2, 3, 4, 5 receivers can expect to combine to have roughly 200 targets or around 12.5 targets per game (250 in 2014, 198 in 2015, 201 in 2016)
2014: 1835 yards on 146 catches 12.57 ypc 7 TD
2015: 1408 yards on 115 catches 12.24 ypc 13 TD
2016: 1429 yards on 114 catches 12.54 ypc 12 TD |
ODELL BECKHAM:
Beckham can expect to have roughly 160 targets or around 10 targets per game (130 in 2014/10.8 per game, 158 in 2015/10.5 per game, 169 in 2016/10.6 per game)
2014: 1305 yards on 91 catches 14.3 ypc 12 TD
2015: 1450 yards on 96 catches 15.1 ypc 13 TD
2016: 1367 yards on 101 catches 13.5 ypc 10 TD |
I also wanted to point out that in 2014, when our TEs produced best under Mac, Donnell and Fells both played all 16 games. Donnell ended up with 92 targets (including 6 TDs), while Fells ended up with 20 targets (including 4 TDs), so I wouldn't be surprised to see similar breakdowns based on Engram and Ellison's skillsets.
Even Adrien Robinson played every game (and ended up with 7 targets including a TD). So, I wouldn't be surprised if Adams got in on the fun as well.
I didn't address this exactly, but the reason Odell only had 130 targets in 2014 was due to games played, not because he was targeted less frequently. He only played 12 games, but his targets percentage was higher in that season (10.8) than any other season since (10.65 career average). So, the only way I could see Odell having 130 targets would be because he misses time on IR.
I also see Eli dumping the ball more to RB Perkins and RB Vereen as they will be easy pass connections due to our skill guys drawing coverages. Eli needs to be SMART with the ball and not turn it over.
This team will be about solid specials; solid defense & turnovers; and, hopefully an effective offense, taking a page out of New England's playbook where they just were you down with high completion and fewere 3 and outs.
Thanks again.
as to brutal reactions -- don't let that stop you -- I hope I wasn't brutal -- I just didn't understand how you came to your target conclusions -- I did think the data was well laid out --and I appreciate your subsequent explanation about it - when I went through your numbers I couldn't derive all of the same means
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In comment 13472255 chopperhatch said:
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In comment 13471660 Beer Man said:
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If the OL keeps him on his feet, he will find the open guy. I think OBJ will be the biggest beneficiary as the off-season acquisitions appear in part to make it more difficult on other teams to use the cover-2 and double up on OBJ.
I tend to agree. But Engram and Shepard are going to have to really produce to scare teams away from that C2. Remember, Beckham is a TD risk every time he touches the ball.
I actually think Engram and Shep are going to be the big winners this year. Teams will stay in that Beckham shell and I really think Engram slices up the middle of the field. Shep I think will get a lot more downfield opportunities, but Engram ripping up LBs will happen unless je is just KILLING teams. Then they will move from that Cover 2.
Honestly, I don't think it's going to take much to get teams to think differently. It's not even about Engram so much as Marshall. The Beckham Slant is a money play even against the C2 they've faced, but now you have Marshall out there, who because of his size is never really covered, and he also is fearless across the middle of the field. Other than maybe Aqib Talib, there are very few CBs in the league that's physical enough to face up Brandon Marshall and jam him off his timing.
That's even before you factor in a TE that can storm down the seam and has sideline to sideline speed. The cover-2 only worked against the Giants because defenses had to stop just one player.
And until EE actually does those things, they still only have one guy to stop.
Again, Marshall and Beckham.
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
Jimmy Googs : 5/15/2017 7:04 pm : link : reply
the run.
Who is going to block better?
If you have TE's/WR's that can actually block, and prevent linebackers/db's from blowing up the play before it gets started, it increases your chances of running the ball, better.....
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I'll post more of these if they occur to me. I get nervous sometimes with how brutal reactions can be. lol.
Thanks again.
as to brutal reactions -- don't let that stop you -- I hope I wasn't brutal -- I just didn't understand how you came to your target conclusions -- I did think the data was well laid out --and I appreciate your subsequent explanation about it - when I went through your numbers I couldn't derive all of the same means
No. Not at all. I appreciated the question. Thanks for helping me clarify. It sounded like others benefited as well.
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
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Will Tye last year had 70 targets.. SEVENTY !!!! Donnell had 22 targets..
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
I think TE Engram will create mis-matches and his speed must be accounted for every snap. Eli will go to Engram if a slower LB is over him.
But I see this offense being about "take what the defene gives you...most plays" and that means also throwing to guys like Tye, Perkins, Vereen, Adams, Ellison, whomever is wide open and easy.
I watched what the Patriots did in the SB and at half-time they had a 2 to 1 play ratio over ATL and were in the process of wearing them down. I think this offense can do the same thing because we have a solid defense to carry us as well as what should be solid specials for the battle of field position.
I think Brandon Marshall will still beat "one on one" coverage against #2 corners. He is a key addition due to his redzone abilities. Camp will be telling as he is 33 now and had the dropsies last year but the Jets sucked overall so maybe we shouldn't read into it too much.
Simply put, I see Eli spreading the ball around a lot. OBJ will be targeted cause he's a top 5 WR talent, yes, but Eli will also play it smart this year due to his multiple options and spread the ball around to the easy, open guy.
For example, I would not be shocked if our RB's caught 90 balls combined as they come out into the flat uncovered. Or our slot guys catching well over 100 short balls as they curl to the open space ala New England style.
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In comment 13472905 blueblood said:
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Will Tye last year had 70 targets.. SEVENTY !!!! Donnell had 22 targets..
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
Good points on targets. Clearly, though older now I have to believe Brandon Marshall is a big upgrade over Victor Cruz, especially in the redzone.
I think TE Engram will create mis-matches and his speed must be accounted for every snap. Eli will go to Engram if a slower LB is over him.
But I see this offense being about "take what the defene gives you...most plays" and that means also throwing to guys like Tye, Perkins, Vereen, Adams, Ellison, whomever is wide open and easy.
I watched what the Patriots did in the SB and at half-time they had a 2 to 1 play ratio over ATL and were in the process of wearing them down. I think this offense can do the same thing because we have a solid defense to carry us as well as what should be solid specials for the battle of field position.
I think Brandon Marshall will still beat "one on one" coverage against #2 corners. He is a key addition due to his redzone abilities. Camp will be telling as he is 33 now and had the dropsies last year but the Jets sucked overall so maybe we shouldn't read into it too much.
Simply put, I see Eli spreading the ball around a lot. OBJ will be targeted cause he's a top 5 WR talent, yes, but Eli will also play it smart this year due to his multiple options and spread the ball around to the easy, open guy.
For example, I would not be shocked if our RB's caught 90 balls combined as they come out into the flat uncovered. Or our slot guys catching well over 100 short balls as they curl to the open space ala New England style.
Glad to see you around more these days, SG.
And, I agree with all your points. It'll be really interesting to see how the offense takes, because for the first time with Beckham, we seem to have pro caliber starters at all the other offensive playmaking positions, in the sense that I think we might be able to score even if Beckham goes down.
I hope we get to see Shep take a step up this year too. He had a great rookie season, leading the team in catch percentage among WRs and scoring 8 TDs. But, if he can show improvement after the catch and show some explosive ability, he'll be reaping the benefits of an improved core of guys.
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In comment 13473274 adamg said:
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In comment 13472905 blueblood said:
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Will Tye last year had 70 targets.. SEVENTY !!!! Donnell had 22 targets..
Those two alone were 92 targets.. Tye played in 65% of the total offensive snaps last year..
Its not about OBJ or Shepard or Marshall..
Its about giving those 92 targets to someone who should be able to do something with them and who is an actual threat to the defense.. something neither Tye nor Donnell are..
That's definitely part of it. Even our 3, 4, 5 receivers had 25 targets. Bobby Rainey alone had 25 targets. Add in Donnell's 22, and you're at the sum total of Victor Cruz's targets.
I think we should expect Eli to have much better options to chose from this year, which should go a long way in improving our O's production. As far as snap % goes, that opens up another can of worms. I was thinking of checking those numbers out at some point as well, on both sides of the ball.
Good points on targets. Clearly, though older now I have to believe Brandon Marshall is a big upgrade over Victor Cruz, especially in the redzone.
I think TE Engram will create mis-matches and his speed must be accounted for every snap. Eli will go to Engram if a slower LB is over him.
But I see this offense being about "take what the defene gives you...most plays" and that means also throwing to guys like Tye, Perkins, Vereen, Adams, Ellison, whomever is wide open and easy.
I watched what the Patriots did in the SB and at half-time they had a 2 to 1 play ratio over ATL and were in the process of wearing them down. I think this offense can do the same thing because we have a solid defense to carry us as well as what should be solid specials for the battle of field position.
I think Brandon Marshall will still beat "one on one" coverage against #2 corners. He is a key addition due to his redzone abilities. Camp will be telling as he is 33 now and had the dropsies last year but the Jets sucked overall so maybe we shouldn't read into it too much.
Simply put, I see Eli spreading the ball around a lot. OBJ will be targeted cause he's a top 5 WR talent, yes, but Eli will also play it smart this year due to his multiple options and spread the ball around to the easy, open guy.
For example, I would not be shocked if our RB's caught 90 balls combined as they come out into the flat uncovered. Or our slot guys catching well over 100 short balls as they curl to the open space ala New England style.
Glad to see you around more these days, SG.
And, I agree with all your points. It'll be really interesting to see how the offense takes, because for the first time with Beckham, we seem to have pro caliber starters at all the other offensive playmaking positions, in the sense that I think we might be able to score even if Beckham goes down.
I hope we get to see Shep take a step up this year too. He had a great rookie season, leading the team in catch percentage among WRs and scoring 8 TDs. But, if he can show improvement after the catch and show some explosive ability, he'll be reaping the benefits of an improved core of guys.
Shep must improve his YAC abilities, for sure, and he is quick so we'll see. But if Eli can get that .3 to .4 more seconds a snap due to improved OL play that would be the big difference maker for this offense.
In summary from my perspective, this will be a year where Eli simply throws to the uncovered or wideopen guy to keep the chains moving. New England takes what the defense gives them and Brady is so damn accurate that it is a crime. Eli won't be Brady BUT he can be much better with improved weapons. So long as we stay healthy, the ball will be spread around and we'll score more in the redzone than in any of McAdoo's years this year.