Just trying to spark some opinions.
Assume Fullz, Ball, Fox, Jackson, Tatum are gone.
Monk - I don't think the NYK can afford to take him. Too one dimensional. He'll probably be a good bench scorer. Hindu Theory: Monte Ellis.
Ntilikina - does not look like a PG to me, but I do love his D and shooting stroke based on the clips. Also seems very intuitive in terms of understanding of the game. Great motor. Hindu Theory: Khris Middleton.
Isaac - I think he's a hair better than last years # 2 overall Brandon Ingram but similar. Hindu Theory: Scottie Pippen offensively and an above average (not transcendent)
defender.
Smith - Much discussion in the NYK thread about him. Is he Steve Francis (not a great compliment) or is he a young Derrick Rose? I really do not have a great feel for this player and I know others on this board do so I defer.
Sleepers for NYK Pick:
Donovan Mitchell. Hindu Theory: Avery Bradley.
OG Anunoby. Would be a trade down scenario i.e. # 8 for all of Portland's picks. Hindu Theory: Reminds me of Kahwi Leonard when he came in the league. If we can walk out of the draft with Portland's picks spent on Anunoby + TJ Leaf + Derrick White, that to me is better than getting Monk or Smith.
I know what the comps are for non-PGs at his height. I just think (1) he might be a PG/lead guard, and (2) he might just be better than the comps.
agree that he makes the most sense on a ready-to-contend team. But how many of those teams can pay him what he might be looking for?
Sadly there is a carrot that other teams can't offer. The Knicks ace in the hole... sign and trade would allow the Knicks to offer Redick more than any other team (outside of the Clippers). Thus we say bye to Melo and Hello Austin and JJ!
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doesn't seem to be a guy that would go to BKN or NYK unless he did not get any good offers elsewhere. Wouldn't even make sense for the Knicks with Lee here.
Sadly there is a carrot that other teams can't offer. The Knicks ace in the hole... sign and trade would allow the Knicks to offer Redick more than any other team (outside of the Clippers). Thus we say bye to Melo and Hello Austin and JJ!
If he trades Melo for Austin Rivers and the right to sign Redick for 5 years 100 million, he better be getting decade worth of future unprotected 1st round picks. Actually if he signs Redick to that deal he should be put in a looney bin immediately.
I know what the comps are for non-PGs at his height. I just think (1) he might be a PG/lead guard, and (2) he might just be better than the comps.
I'm not particularly high on Monk but I think (and I'm clearly in the minority here) I'd take him over Frenchy. Ntilikina is 19 in December (young for sure) but Monk played this season at 18-19 for a major program and put up big numbers. I still have significant worries but we "know" he can really shoot and is an excellent athlete. I bet on athletes over "versatility".
Monk isnt my first choice. But if Frank N really is limited upside, Im a pass on him. And I want a guard if Tatum and Isaac are gone.
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doesn't seem to be a guy that would go to BKN or NYK unless he did not get any good offers elsewhere. Wouldn't even make sense for the Knicks with Lee here.
Sadly there is a carrot that other teams can't offer. The Knicks ace in the hole... sign and trade would allow the Knicks to offer Redick more than any other team (outside of the Clippers). Thus we say bye to Melo and Hello Austin and JJ!
didn't they change the rules on sign-and-trades? Aren't the years and raises you can offer the same as if you were signing the guy outright?
Monk isnt my first choice. But if Frank N really is limited upside, Im a pass on him. And I want a guard if Tatum and Isaac are gone.
I'd be a liar if I said I was some expert on Frenchy but even those who really like him (both on here and "experts") seem to suggest his upside is in fact limited due to his athleticism. I keep seeing versatility, defense, "can guard 3 positions", and potentially good from 3. But I don't think I've seen anyone really say he has "great" upside. I'd suggest the floor is pretty scary considering the ceiling isn't fantastic.
I'm not sure I understand the appeal of a "very young" player who didn't get tons of burn (not his fault or a knock) who likely isn't ready to step into a major role right away who doesn't have monster upside.
Don't give me KP either. He's 7'3, despise the concerns he wasn't "ready" he put up numbers in the #2 league in the world and the upside matched the risk.
I dont think that's too hard to do. Getting a great scorer is hard.
Position fit is becoming less of an issue in the NBA I think. Get 5 guys out there, and 4 better be able to shoot.
Im not all in on Monk, by any means. But he's the sort of swing for the fences pick I'd go for. His ceiling is to be an elite lead guard.
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In comment 13475078 giantsfan44ab said:
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doesn't seem to be a guy that would go to BKN or NYK unless he did not get any good offers elsewhere. Wouldn't even make sense for the Knicks with Lee here.
Sadly there is a carrot that other teams can't offer. The Knicks ace in the hole... sign and trade would allow the Knicks to offer Redick more than any other team (outside of the Clippers). Thus we say bye to Melo and Hello Austin and JJ!
didn't they change the rules on sign-and-trades? Aren't the years and raises you can offer the same as if you were signing the guy outright?
He can get 4 years with 4.5% raises via sign and trade. He's made clear he's looking for the most money (thus the connection to bad teams like us, Nets, Philly) so this idea he wouldn't come here seems to be incorrect. Obviously he likely prefers getting 4 years 80 with a good team, but he may not get that.
He seems like the kind of player who makes sense for a team like Minnesota. If you already have Towns and Wiggins, it makes more sense to pick a shooting and defense guy than if you're the Knicks.
" High-End Spending. In 2017-18, the Tax “Apron” – the amount above the Tax Level that cannot be exceeded by any team that uses the Non-Taxpayer Mid- Level Exception or Bi-annual Exception or acquires a free agent in a sign-and- trade – will be increased from $4M greater than the Tax Level to $6M greater than the Tax Level, and this $6M amount will increase or decrease annually beginning in 2018-19 at one-half the rate of the increase or decrease in the Salary Cap."
That's the exact opposite of the approach I would take in the draft. Maybe if your a contender picking at the end of the draft you try to target a "team guy" who will fit in nicely. But when your roster is bereft of talent, I'm swinging for the fences picking 8 at the best athlete/upside guy possible. Get Monk or Smith and I'm happy.
I wouldnt even remotely consider trading Willy and #8 for the #5 or #6 pick.
I think Willy is pretty underrated around here. He's way better than Marc Gasol was at the same point. His defense blows right now, but that is common for Euro bigs and for rookies. His BBIQ is fantastic.
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In comment 13475091 DanMetroMan said:
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In comment 13475078 giantsfan44ab said:
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doesn't seem to be a guy that would go to BKN or NYK unless he did not get any good offers elsewhere. Wouldn't even make sense for the Knicks with Lee here.
Sadly there is a carrot that other teams can't offer. The Knicks ace in the hole... sign and trade would allow the Knicks to offer Redick more than any other team (outside of the Clippers). Thus we say bye to Melo and Hello Austin and JJ!
didn't they change the rules on sign-and-trades? Aren't the years and raises you can offer the same as if you were signing the guy outright?
He can get 4 years with 4.5% raises via sign and trade. He's made clear he's looking for the most money (thus the connection to bad teams like us, Nets, Philly) so this idea he wouldn't come here seems to be incorrect. Obviously he likely prefers getting 4 years 80 with a good team, but he may not get that.
he can get 4 years with 4.5% raises from a team with cap space.
That's the exact opposite of the approach I would take in the draft. Maybe if your a contender picking at the end of the draft you try to target a "team guy" who will fit in nicely. But when your roster is bereft of talent, I'm swinging for the fences picking 8 at the best athlete/upside guy possible. Get Monk or Smith and I'm happy.
I dont have a problem with what Phil said. He's saying that an important part of scouting is finding guys who are coachable and willing to mold their game to what the team is trying to accomplish (Monk just showed he would BTW).
I dont understand how people can filet Melo as a ball stopper who refused Phil's and MDA's offenses, and then roast Phil for pointing out that there is more to the game than just being the best individual talent.
yet he traded for Derrick Rose.
Willy is an ascending big on a VERY cheap deal so he has a lot of value. Only thing that would hold down his value going forward is that there seems to be a surplus of decent bigs in the league these days.
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“But I think we are going to get there and I think we keep insisting upon the type of players we want, it is going to be there. But behind the scenes, and the group that we have, my teammate work with Steve Mills, Jamie Matthews, Christian and the people in our scouting, I think we know what we want and we are interested in developing that and turning away from just say this guy can jump out of the gym, this guy can do a triple-double game or dunk the ball. That is not what we are interested in. We are interested in skill players that know how to play together in team form.”
yet he traded for Derrick Rose.
To be fair, Rose cant jump out of the gym, run up a triple double, or dunk.
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“But I think we are going to get there and I think we keep insisting upon the type of players we want, it is going to be there. But behind the scenes, and the group that we have, my teammate work with Steve Mills, Jamie Matthews, Christian and the people in our scouting, I think we know what we want and we are interested in developing that and turning away from just say this guy can jump out of the gym, this guy can do a triple-double game or dunk the ball. That is not what we are interested in. We are interested in skill players that know how to play together in team form.”
That's the exact opposite of the approach I would take in the draft. Maybe if your a contender picking at the end of the draft you try to target a "team guy" who will fit in nicely. But when your roster is bereft of talent, I'm swinging for the fences picking 8 at the best athlete/upside guy possible. Get Monk or Smith and I'm happy.
I dont have a problem with what Phil said. He's saying that an important part of scouting is finding guys who are coachable and willing to mold their game to what the team is trying to accomplish (Monk just showed he would BTW).
I dont understand how people can filet Melo as a ball stopper who refused Phil's and MDA's offenses, and then roast Phil for pointing out that there is more to the game than just being the best individual talent.
His quote makes it sound like he wouldn't want a Westbrook. Melo isn't a good example. Who are these "triple double" guys that aren't "winning" players? It's a false narrative/dumb quote. Guys who "triple double" are all great players. Bad players can luck into a triple double, guys who consistently do that (or similar) are all guys we should want.
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There was a lot of talk at one point that Phil was enamored with Josh Jackson. If the draft were to play out where Fultz, Ball, Monk, and Tatum were to go top 4 in some order, I wonder if Willy would be enough of an incentive for a team like Sacramento or Orlando to move down to 8 at that point.
I wouldnt even remotely consider trading Willy and #8 for the #5 or #6 pick.
I think Willy is pretty underrated around here. He's way better than Marc Gasol was at the same point. His defense blows right now, but that is common for Euro bigs and for rookies. His BBIQ is fantastic.
If we are using the WS/48 metric to compare willy to Gasol, I think it would be fair to say Gasol is the exception and not the rule.
Using the WS/48 metric, Willy is worse than both JV and and Amir Johnson at the same age. Both guys that could not be relied on in the playoffs. JV averaged 22 mpg and amir johnson is averaging 10 minutes per game (logged 5 last night against Cleveland). Amir Johnson a solid defender and a .15 WS/48 player.
And yes, you can project Willy to become a better defender based on age/being a rookie. But let's be realistic. The dude hardly gets off the ground. He gets absolutely blitzed on switches. I think he's a solid post defender but I don't think he will be able to anchor a top notch defense. I think hes more of a 22 mpg player come playoff time.
Johnson was a 4th year pro in his age 22 season. He's a different player than Willy. Willy is a better rebounder and much better scorer. Johnson is a low volume, shoot it from 3 feet and in scorer. I dont totally love the advanced metrics for guys like that -- I feel like the advanced metrics still dont take volume into account well.
In hindsight, are any of those guys players that would prevent you from taking another center? It's hard to even project Willy being a better defender than some of those guys (Zeller particularly).
I think Gasol's D was overrated. I recall reading a persuasive analysis that the key to defense in the modern NBA is elite guard D stopping penetration before it starts. And Memphis with Allen and Conley was superb at that. Gasol and ZBo had much easier jobs than other bigs.
Not saying Gasol wasnt good on D. But he wasnt Deandre or Tyson.
In hindsight, are any of those guys players that would prevent you from taking another center? It's hard to even project Willy being a better defender than some of those guys (Zeller particularly).
Im signed up to see what Willy becomes. With his IQ I think he's worth betting on. Already a fantastic rebounder and crafty as hell down low.
Johnson was a 4th year pro in his age 22 season. He's a different player than Willy. Willy is a better rebounder and much better scorer. Johnson is a low volume, shoot it from 3 feet and in scorer. I dont totally love the advanced metrics for guys like that -- I feel like the advanced metrics still dont take volume into account well.
Yes, but also worse defensively.
My overall point is that good offensive centers post great WS/48 metrics yet can't find floor time when it matters. I don't think Willy is a 40 mpg come playoff time. I think he's a sub 30 minute player when teams go small in the post-season.
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have no idea what Willy would become but my issue with this consistent Marc Gasol comp is 1. The guy was a tubbo that got into significantly better shape, Willy likely gets stronger but the physical change from Gasol was unusual 2. Gasol became one of the best defensive players in the NBA for a stretch. The odds are beyond long that Willy does that.
I think Gasol's D was overrated. I recall reading a persuasive analysis that the key to defense in the modern NBA is elite guard D stopping penetration before it starts. And Memphis with Allen and Conley was superb at that. Gasol and ZBo had much easier jobs than other bigs.
Not saying Gasol wasnt good on D. But he wasnt Deandre or Tyson.
So lets call Gasol's defense in his prime "above average". I can't see Willy getting there.
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using that WH is worse than Amir Johnson, Cody Zeller, JV, Spencer Hawes, Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter and Big Baby Davis at similar ages.
In hindsight, are any of those guys players that would prevent you from taking another center? It's hard to even project Willy being a better defender than some of those guys (Zeller particularly).
Im signed up to see what Willy becomes. With his IQ I think he's worth betting on. Already a fantastic rebounder and crafty as hell down low.
I am too. But Im not holding him to the regard of KP just yet. Willy isn't forcing me to take need over talent.
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In comment 13475203 giantsfan44ab said:
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using that WH is worse than Amir Johnson, Cody Zeller, JV, Spencer Hawes, Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter and Big Baby Davis at similar ages.
In hindsight, are any of those guys players that would prevent you from taking another center? It's hard to even project Willy being a better defender than some of those guys (Zeller particularly).
Im signed up to see what Willy becomes. With his IQ I think he's worth betting on. Already a fantastic rebounder and crafty as hell down low.
I am too. But Im not holding him to the regard of KP just yet. Willy isn't forcing me to take need over talent.
No one said Willy is in KP's class.
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In comment 13475194 DanMetroMan said:
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have no idea what Willy would become but my issue with this consistent Marc Gasol comp is 1. The guy was a tubbo that got into significantly better shape, Willy likely gets stronger but the physical change from Gasol was unusual 2. Gasol became one of the best defensive players in the NBA for a stretch. The odds are beyond long that Willy does that.
I think Gasol's D was overrated. I recall reading a persuasive analysis that the key to defense in the modern NBA is elite guard D stopping penetration before it starts. And Memphis with Allen and Conley was superb at that. Gasol and ZBo had much easier jobs than other bigs.
Not saying Gasol wasnt good on D. But he wasnt Deandre or Tyson.
So lets call Gasol's defense in his prime "above average". I can't see Willy getting there.
I wouldnt write it off. But all he has to be is below average on D to be a very good starting center. Basically, get him out of the "easily exploitable" category of guys like Kanter, and Willy is a really valuable starting piece.
The one that does it for me is Jabari Parker and Middleton. Metrics suggest Parker is a better player than Middleton yet Milwaukee couldn't get out of the .500 range with Parker and had like the 3rd best record in the NBA since Middleton came back. There's still really no way to incorporate defense properly into player evaluation metrics.
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realized how much the metrics love Valanciunas. Makes me have less confidence in them actually projecting "success" when it matters. I mean he's clearly a good player but it doesn't seem to take into account how his flaws impact him in certain matchups.
The one that does it for me is Jabari Parker and Middleton. Metrics suggest Parker is a better player than Middleton yet Milwaukee couldn't get out of the .500 range with Parker and had like the 3rd best record in the NBA since Middleton came back. There's still really no way to incorporate defense properly into player evaluation metrics.
Yeah I mean Valanciunas is obviously good. I don't want to make it sound like I believe he sucks but last 3 seasons WS/48 of .193, Towns .178, Anthony Davis .180. Is there a single team in the NBA that would take him over those two even for one season?
The advanced metrics are also bad at gauging the value of certain extremes. Guys who are so bad defensively that you cant play them dont get dinged hard enough. Guys who are super limited but good at what they can do are often way overvalued (e.g. guys who shoot 60% because they have no attempts from any distance).