Biggest Rookie to Year 2 Jumps this upcoming season

becomes a top 30 CB opposite Jenkins.

Perkins - averaged 4.1 y/a last season in (relatively) limited chances. With the attention Marshall and Engram (and Beckham) will draw from the Ds, I think Perkins pushes that average up closer to 4.5 y/a. I think we'll see a lot more 2 TE sets which will open some holes in the running game as well.

if Apple became a dominant player? We already have 6 All Pros.

Hopefully.

Both of them have nowhere to go but up.

I see him making a huge jump. He played very well last year and a lot of the mistakes that he made were common rookie mental errors. He will also be taking on #2 and #3 receivers for the most part again.

and Perkins would be my choices. Though Apple started as a rookie he will show as a top CB this year. With teams avoiding Jenkins he will have lots of chances. Perkins will get major playing time as the #1 back as have opportunity to really impress.

Shepard did well enough as a rookie that I think his improvement won't be noticed as much and Marshall will take some of his throws. Thompson didn't play so there nothing to compare his performance to. With Ellison and Engram on board, Adams won't have as many chances either.

to spread things to account for a boost in our receiving corps = Paul Perkins emerging as a real weapon out of the backfield.

Bold statement: I think Perkins will be a 1,000 yard rusher this season.

So his production should hopefully increase. He's going to get more carries, so let's hope he makes the most of them.

I was underwhelmed by Shepard last year, and don't really expect much more out of him this year.

In comment 13476208 Klaatu said:

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So his production should hopefully increase. He's going to get more carries, so let's hope he makes the most of them. I was underwhelmed by Shepard last year, and don't really expect much more out of him this year.

65 catches, 683 yards and 8 TD's from the slot for a 2nd round rookie is underwhelming?

He is at best 3rd on the depth chart.

Perkins and Goodson.

THIS year, and there aren't any significant injuries to receivers?

Ohhhhhh boy!!!!!

In comment 13476209 Danny Kanell said:

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In comment 13476208 Klaatu said: Quote: So his production should hopefully increase. He's going to get more carries, so let's hope he makes the most of them. I was underwhelmed by Shepard last year, and don't really expect much more out of him this year. 65 catches, 683 yards and 8 TD's from the slot for a 2nd round rookie is underwhelming?

'Fraid so. The 8 TDs were nice, but the 65 catches and 683 yards were pedestrian when compared to the rest of the league, especially when you factor in the ypc and the number of drops. The hype around this kid right after the draft was huge, but he hardly lived up to it. He's a good, serviceable slot receiver. Nothing more, nothing less, and certainly nothing special.

In comment 13476192 Danny Kanell said:

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Bold statement: I think Perkins will be a 1,000 yard rusher this season.

I'll take it a step further and say he hits 1,200+ rushing yards. If he gets 100 of RJ's 180 carries from last year (plus the 110 carries he got), that would give him 210 rushes. Even at a mediocre 4.1 y/a (last season's average) that's ~850 yards.

I see Perkins getting closer to 250 carries and as I said earlier, I'm optimistic he can push that y/a up closer to 4.5 y/a.

In comment 13476209 Danny Kanell said:

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In comment 13476208 Klaatu said: Quote: So his production should hopefully increase. He's going to get more carries, so let's hope he makes the most of them. I was underwhelmed by Shepard last year, and don't really expect much more out of him this year. 65 catches, 683 yards and 8 TD's from the slot for a 2nd round rookie is underwhelming?

Overall I'd say he slightly beat my expectations for him:

Receptions: on target, maybe a little above expectations
TDs: definite beat, I expected more like 4-6 TDs
Yards/Catch: definitely underwhelmed here. I expected (hoped for) to see more ability after the catch, but he rarely made guys miss and wasn't much of a threat after the catch.

he's a hard guy to figure out long term. Is what we see what we get here going forward? It's rare to see a rookie hit his ceiling so soon and not show considerable improvement in years 2-3 but then you see his size and skill set and wonder. Is this his ceiling? 50-70 catches 6-10 TDs and 800-1000 yards? Limited yac...some nice plays but not many wow moments. Nothing wrong with that. Those guys aren't easy to find but what's Shepard's ceiling? Last year's offense was easy to defend it would seem. Defenses just blanketed our WRs and dared us to run. No seem splitting options. No blocking TEs. No threat at RB. No outside threat other than Beckham. It's no wonder that Shepard failed to make a lot of big plays but he did play well. With some better talent here now you wonder if Shepard is going to surprise the league this year with a lot more room to work with. He doesn't seem be a guy that is going to fall down right after the catch if there's room to move. You wonder..

Shepard might be a really nice surprise this coming season. If his YAC goes up he's going to put up numbers.

but his big play moments might.

Thought he was very good out of the slot for a rookie and met at least my expectations which were fairly high.

Played right of the box as well, and I think even grabbed a TD in game 1. We had a shit offense altogether so some down effect there if you were expecting 900-1000 yards last season.

The biggest thing i think he has to work on is keeping his feet underneath him. Too often falling for the catch or getting his feet tied up and going down after a cut.

future pointing up to me...

bumps in the road this season. He took his lumps in the middle of last season and had to take a seat.

Good for the coaches to get his ass back in there shortly thereafter and keep his confidence up because felt he was pretty decent by year end.

But look for some more growing pains here as CB development is definitely not linear..ask Jenkins.

I don't think he's close to his ceiling at all. You could argue he has more room to grow than someone with a ton of athletic ability that comes right in and produces. As Shepard refines his technique and better learns how to read and setup the CBs, he'll likely create some additional separation and improve his numbers (catches and y/a).

Shepard was great for a rookie in an offense where the QB wasn't able to sit back and wait for guys to get open. He made so many tough contested catches and took hits to do it. He's going to be a legit player. What in the world was underwhelming about Shepard??

As far as this question, its a great question. I'll agree with the point above that Shepard had a solid rookie season so with the new weapons, it will be hard for him to really jump.

The coaches love Thompson, he looked good in the very limited scrimmage time that he had, but it's a huge unknown and there are some injury concerns which could derail his case.

Perkins and Eli Apple stand out, but to me, Perkins makes a huge jump. He ran well with the same line that Jennings barely got 3 YPC behind. He's going to get a ton of touches and I think he def eclipses 1000 yards. Apple looks to be a promising player, but he also has an injury history and it's going to be tougher for him to stand out whereas Perkins will be getting a ton of touches. So I'll go with Perkins, but we have a bunch of rookies from last year that should really contribute well.

Receptions:

Michael Thomas-92
STERLING SHEPARD-67
Boyd-54
Hill-51
Sharpe-47
Fuller-47

Receiving Yards:

Michael Thomas-981
STERLING SHEPARD-653
Fuller-611
Boyd-554
Sharpe-549
Hill-526

Receiving TD's:

Michael Thomas-9
STERLING SHEPARD-8
Hill-6


So amongst all rookies, Shepard was 2nd in catches, yards and td's. What exactly was disappointing or underwhelming?

In comment 13476275 Keith said:

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Receptions: Michael Thomas-92 STERLING SHEPARD-67 Boyd-54 Hill-51 Sharpe-47 Fuller-47 Receiving Yards: Michael Thomas-981 STERLING SHEPARD-653 Fuller-611 Boyd-554 Sharpe-549 Hill-526 Receiving TD's: Michael Thomas-9 STERLING SHEPARD-8 Hill-6 So amongst all rookies, Shepard was 2nd in catches, yards and td's. What exactly was disappointing or underwhelming?

This

I can see CB Eli Apple becoming an upper quarter starting corner. I can also see Sharpe becoming a super sure target, a guy who gets open so consistently in this offense that it will be hard for Eli not to go to him more this year. I think MLB Goodson starts and mops up the run and also upgrades pass defense over Shepard, hence making our defense better. I think RB Perkins has a big year - no stat predictions just that he starts and is solid in all phases, making him a dangerous addition over plodding Jennings. TE Adams flashed last year and now should take it to the next level. UDFA FS Adams should shine along with last year's 3rd round pick FS D. Thompson, who if healthy should make our secondary the league's BEST, bar none.

DE Okwara held his own when JPP went down and should be improved this year. We had a GREAT off-season last year and this year we'll see the whole thing come together. I'm predicting top 5 overall defense and top 10 overall offense & specials making us a top 5 or so team and capable of playing and winning the SB. yup, that is how I feel right now. Just stay healthy and it can happen.

Compare Shepard to all of the WRs in the NFL and his numbers are, as I said, pedestrian. Now, maybe I got spoiled watching Steve Smith and Victor Cruz set records in the slot, and maybe Sterling Shepard will improve (no doubt there's room for it), but based on last year's performance, yes, consider me underwhelmed.

Shepard had 4 drops all season in 16 games and of all the WR's with at least 50 catches, Shep is about 35th in the whole NFL in catch %(4 drops in 105 targets). So what exactly are you talking about again?

lets compare the rookie Shepard to Antonio Brown and all the other vets. Seems reasonable.

In comment 13476287 Klaatu said:

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Compare Shepard to all of the WRs in the NFL and his numbers are, as I said, pedestrian. Now, maybe I got spoiled watching Steve Smith and Victor Cruz set records in the slot, and maybe Sterling Shepard will improve (no doubt there's room for it), but based on last year's performance, yes, consider me underwhelmed.

He was a rookie?? I think he did fairly well for a rookie. But this year will be telling. My only issue with Shepard is his lack of apparent "exploviness" after the catch. He also made a back-breaking drop in the playoffs along with OBJ.

actually be a better player but not have it show up in his stats.

He's going to lose a lot of snaps to Engram.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Shepard had a lot of catches.

In comment 13476182 Milton said:

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Hopefully.

He is my darkhorse. And if both he and Apple become studs along with Collins, Jenkins and DRC we clearly would have the NFL's best secondary. We pressure the QB and this secondary will feast. Again, much remains to be seen in camp and so forth but the flashes of talent last year have me feeling pretty good. Health is the big issue.

In comment 13476301 Klaatu said:

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It shouldn't come as a surprise that Shepard had a lot of catches.

oops. wrong button.

In comment 13476300 Ron Johnson said:

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actually be a better player but not have it show up in his stats. He's going to lose a lot of snaps to Engram.

That may be true. I actually see the Giants throwing the ball to a lot more players this year as we have more skilled players than any of the McAdoo era, for sure.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Shepard had a lot of catches. But if you look at a rookie like Tajae Sharpe, sure, he didn't have as many catches, yards, or TDs, but his yac was more than two yards better, and he was also playing in the shadow of a top-tier WR and a highly productive pass-catching TE, on a team with a much stronger running game, but a much less experienced QB. So who was actually more impactful?

becomes a star.

was, obviously. If that's underwhelming or disappointing, I hope we draft an underwhelming WR in the 2nd round every season. Unbelievable.

In comment 13476383 Keith said:

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was, obviously. If that's underwhelming or disappointing, I hope we draft an underwhelming WR in the 2nd round every season. Unbelievable.

If you're playing Fantasy Football, then maybe it's obvious. If all you care about is stats, then maybe it's obvious. If you're trying to help your team win football games, then maybe it's not so obvious.

and be a huge factor in Eli's 3rd SB ring.

I'm so glad I quit fantasy football last year.

If you want to win games, score more points. Shepard had 8 TD's to Sharpes 2. Does that help win games?

You are in lala land and you are making no sense. Shepard vs Sharpe:

Catches-67 vs 41
Yards-683 vs 522
TDs-8 vs 2

Completion % of balls thrown to them-61.9% vs 49.4%

Sharpes longest play of the year was 34 yards. Sheps was 32 yards. They each had 3 "big plays". Shep had 42 catches for a first down. Sharpe had 27. So yeah, I'd say it's pretty clear Shep had a more impactful rookie season. Now.....your turn.

In comment 13476287 Klaatu said:

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Compare Shepard to all of the WRs in the NFL and his numbers are, as I said, pedestrian. Now, maybe I got spoiled watching Steve Smith and Victor Cruz set records in the slot, and maybe Sterling Shepard will improve (no doubt there's room for it), but based on last year's performance, yes, consider me underwhelmed.

This is such a myopic view it doesnt really deserve a response but I wanted to throw out some data to show that your "underwhelming" evaluation is, well...dumb.

Because we are talking about how much improvement we expect you cant just ignore that it was his rookie year. It is not like we are talking about a guy who has been in the league for 8 years and he is what he is. We are not talking about simply evaluating last season. The question was, who will make a big jump and ignoring the fact that he was a rookie changes the discussion entirely.

Below is how he ranks among all WRs taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds since 1978 (when the NFL went to a 16 game schedule) almost 40 years ago.

REC: Top 6.8%
YARDS: Top 22.7%
TDs: Top 3.6%

So I ask you, by what metric is that an "underwhelming" rookie year?

Pro Football Reference - ( New Window )

the supporting cast. So defenses didn't have to key on the Giants running game. They NEVER had more than 7 in the box. Defenses didn't have to worry about anyone other than OBJ and you think that helped Shepard?

In comparison, defenses constantly loaded the box on Tenn and they had to key on 2 other WR's and you think that hurt Sharpe?

Odd way your brain works there Klat.

On a team that had little else other than OBJ. Sharpe was, at best, the 3rd or 4th option on a team that had many more offensive weapons, in the air and on the ground.

that maybe Sharpe had more room to run because defenses didn't key on him? He had 20 less targets than Shepard and 25 less catches. You were saying?

In comment 13476429 Keith said:

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that maybe Sharpe had more room to run because defenses didn't key on him? He had 20 less targets than Shepard and 25 less catches. You were saying?

He should have had less targets - but he made more with what he had.

In comment 13476419 Capt. Don said:

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In comment 13476287 Klaatu said: Quote: Compare Shepard to all of the WRs in the NFL and his numbers are, as I said, pedestrian. Now, maybe I got spoiled watching Steve Smith and Victor Cruz set records in the slot, and maybe Sterling Shepard will improve (no doubt there's room for it), but based on last year's performance, yes, consider me underwhelmed. This is such a myopic view it doesnt really deserve a response but I wanted to throw out some data to show that your "underwhelming" evaluation is, well...dumb. Because we are talking about how much improvement we expect you cant just ignore that it was his rookie year. It is not like we are talking about a guy who has been in the league for 8 years and he is what he is. We are not talking about simply evaluating last season. The question was, who will make a big jump and ignoring the fact that he was a rookie changes the discussion entirely. Below is how he ranks among all WRs taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds since 1978 (when the NFL went to a 16 game schedule) almost 40 years ago. REC: Top 6.8% YARDS: Top 22.7% TDs: Top 3.6% So I ask you, by what metric is that an "underwhelming" rookie year? Pro Football Reference - ( New Window )

If this is underwhelming, I want more of it.

Why don't you include 3rd round picks, or exclude 1st rounders? Can you find how much improvement was made by WRs picked in the 2nd round in their sophomore years?

Shepard is, as I said, a good, serviceable shot receiver, but the idea that he's anything more than that is, to me, ludicrous. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, so let's see.

In comment 13476452 Klaatu said:

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Why don't you include 3rd round picks, or exclude 1st rounders?

sure, as you can see below those parameters actually discredits your argument even more.

Compared to 2nd Round Picks (1978-Present)

REC: Top 5.6%
YARDS: Top 13.4%
TDs: Top 5%

Compared to 2nd AND 3rd Round Picks (1978-Present)

REC: Top 3.1%
YARDS: Top 10%
TDs: Top 1.4%

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Can you find how much improvement was made by WRs picked in the 2nd round in their sophomore years?

I could but I am not going to. You can though!

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Shepard is, as I said, a good, serviceable shot receiver, but the idea that he's anything more than that is, to me, ludicrous. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, so let's see.

You are talking about what he IS based on his rookie year and that is wrong on at least two levels.

1. The discussion is not what a player is but what kind of improvement he will make from last year to this year.

2. Your assessment of his rookie year as "serviceable" and "underwhelming" is not supported by facts.

I like what I saw from this class last year. The potential upside is very HIGH from all of our picks and UDFA's.

The only player we can't be "sure about" really is MLB Goodson because he had so few snaps on defense.

But the potential of Eli Apple, Sterling Sharpe, D. Thompson, P. Perkins, J. Adams, Okwara, FS Adams is very high based on the flashes they showed last year and coach comments. Health is of course important and will key the class upside but man does it look good.

Klaatu's having a rough thread.

fails to account for, is that WRs nowadays have a much easier time contributing right out of the gate than they did back in 1978 when his data starts. So including data back until then, skews his numbers in SS's favor. For example, only 5 guys on the total receptions list joined the league before 2000.

So a better comparison for setting current expectations would be SS vs rookie WRs in the last 5 seasons. Here's his ranks (146 WRs drafted). Note that I included all drafted rookies, not just those taken in the 1st two rounds.

Rec
Shepard - tied 9th (top 6%)

Yds
Shepard - 17th (top 12%)

TDs
Shepard - tied 5th (top 3.5%)

Yds/Rec (min 20 rec) - 51 total WRs
Shepard - 40th (top 79%)
*Shepard - 93rd out of 174 (top 54%)

*his rank compared to rookie WRs drafted in rds 1-2 dating back to 1978.

So I think it's pretty fair to be 'underwhelmed' by Shepard's ability after the catch (to date).