Biggest Rookie to Year 2 Jumps this upcoming season

YAC is now the only thing we should look at in judging WRs? It's an indicator, but there are also a lot of things that go into YAC(such as the fact that defenses keyed on SS because of the lack of weapons around him). He didn't say he was concerned about his YAC, he said he was underwhelming as a rookie and basically said that SS won't ever get better and will always be a JAG.

Some notable players who had lower Y/R #s their rookie years:

Jarvis Landry
Brandin Cooks

Cooks was surprising to see at <10.5 due to his great speed and I don't think he's a great comp for Shepard, though he's also undersized. But Landry might be the best comp out there since he's primarily a slot WR. Shepard's 40 yd/3 cone/20 yd shuttles all blew away Landry's numbers, so hopefully there's a lot of untapped potential there. That said, Landry definitely plays faster than his timed numbers. I knew his 40 wasn't fast, but didn't realize his 3-cone/short shuttle were so pedestrian. Watching him play, he's one of the best at making the 1st defender miss.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 13476621 Keith said:

Quote:

YAC is now the only thing we should look at in judging WRs? It's an indicator, but there are also a lot of things that go into YAC(such as the fact that defenses keyed on SS because of the lack of weapons around him). He didn't say he was concerned about his YAC, he said he was underwhelming as a rookie and basically said that SS won't ever get better and will always be a JAG.

I'm not speaking for Klaatu or anyone else. And I never said YAC was the only thing important. I was merely elaborating on my earlier post in which I said his YAC performance was below my expectations.

In comment 13476555 Danny Kanell said:

Quote:

Klaatu's having a rough thread.

of all time?

1. Why only 5 years? Was that random or a cutoff that solidified your point? If we are comparing SS to other WR's, I think you make a fair point that going back to the 70's skews the numbers. What about to 2000.

2. Minimum of 20 receptions seems low as well. To compare SS to other WR's, you have to go minimum of 50 catches. Think about a rookie that has 20 catches in a season(1 per game). You can't compare that to SS who plays every snap.

In comment 13476625 giants#1 said:

Quote:

In comment 13476621 Keith said: Quote: YAC is now the only thing we should look at in judging WRs? It's an indicator, but there are also a lot of things that go into YAC(such as the fact that defenses keyed on SS because of the lack of weapons around him). He didn't say he was concerned about his YAC, he said he was underwhelming as a rookie and basically said that SS won't ever get better and will always be a JAG. I'm not speaking for Klaatu or anyone else. And I never said YAC was the only thing important. I was merely elaborating on my earlier post in which I said his YAC performance was below my expectations.

Gotcha. I didn't see your earlier post.

In comment 13476629 Keith said:

Quote:

1. Why only 5 years? Was that random or a cutoff that solidified your point? If we are comparing SS to other WR's, I think you make a fair point that going back to the 70's skews the numbers. What about to 2000. 2. Minimum of 20 receptions seems low as well. To compare SS to other WR's, you have to go minimum of 50 catches. Think about a rookie that has 20 catches in a season(1 per game). You can't compare that to SS who plays every snap.

5 years was just a "round" number, though there have been a larger # of WRs making an immediate impact the last few years compared to even 2000 (think Beckham, Landry, Benjamin, Cooks, Cooper, Evans, etc). Here are the numbers for 10 years (53 total WRs)

Rec (min 40 rec)
Shepard - tied 11th (top 21%)

Yards (min 40 rec)
Shepard - 30th (top 57%)

TDs (min 40 rec)
Shepard - tied 6th (top 12%)

Yards/Rec(min 40 rec)
Shepard - 44th (top 83%)

Yards/Rec (min 30 rec)
Shepard - 68th out of 80 (top 85%)

The explosive ability, YAC ability and + blocking ability weren't as advertised. This guy was billed as a dominant blocker. He didn't block a thing and McAdoo all year was calling out the WRs for bad blocking. His YAC was poor and he was easily tackled in the open field. I suppose you can "work" on that but those kind of skills are generally intrinsic. I was very disappointed with his inability to make people miss.

You look at the explosive 2nd/3rd round type slot WRs around the league - a young Cobb, Jamison Crowder, Ty Lockette, Doug Baldwin etc - that's what I was personally expecting from Shepard. That said, like any rookie, there's plenty of room for improvement and it's unfair to look at him as a finished product. Landon Collins is the poster boy.

In comment 13476621 Keith said:

Quote:

YAC is now the only thing we should look at in judging WRs? It's an indicator, but there are also a lot of things that go into YAC(such as the fact that defenses keyed on SS because of the lack of weapons around him). He didn't say he was concerned about his YAC, he said he was underwhelming as a rookie and basically said that SS won't ever get better and will always be a JAG.

Also, his percentiles are inflated by my numbers since I include all drafted WRs, not just those in the top 2 rounds. His absolute ranks are relatively the same, but if you only look at WRs that actually caught passes (see my subsequent post) his percentile's don't look as 'sexy'.

can be a star in the making. Some of the footage from last year shows a young back with the instincts of a more mature back.

In comment 13476657 River said:

Quote:

can be a star in the making. Some of the footage from last year shows a young back with the instincts of a more mature back.

I'd like to see Perkins with some blocking in front of him. Ellison will be a big boost to the run game.

In comment 13476679 SGMen said:

Quote:

In comment 13476657 River said: Quote: can be a star in the making. Some of the footage from last year shows a young back with the instincts of a more mature back. I'd like to see Perkins with some blocking in front of him. Ellison will be a big boost to the run game.

Think of this
last year Will Tye and Adams tried to move LBs and Safeties and couldn't do it. This year Ellison is a monster on the line moving guys. Perkins only needs to see daylight and the yards will come. Add in Fluker on the RT who can really run block and you can really have a nice ground game.

He's going from not playing much on d to starting at mlb and I think he'll be a good one. If Tomlinson replaces Hankins and Goodson is an upgrade over Shepard, our run d could be the best in the league.

In comment 13476709 Ira said:

Quote:

He's going from not playing much on d to starting at mlb and I think he'll be a good one. If Tomlinson replaces Hankins and Goodson is an upgrade over Shepard, our run d could be the best in the league.

Because Tomlinson is from AL, is a fifth year senior and strong as hell, I think he'll have enough down technique wise to start. I don't know if he'll be as good as Hankins as a rookie, but I do believe he'll be a strong starter in the NFL. Running up the middle will be quite tough if both Tomlinson and Goodson develop.

In comment 13476209 Danny Kanell said:

Quote:

In comment 13476208 Klaatu said: Quote: So his production should hopefully increase. He's going to get more carries, so let's hope he makes the most of them. I was underwhelmed by Shepard last year, and don't really expect much more out of him this year. 65 catches, 683 yards and 8 TD's from the slot for a 2nd round rookie is underwhelming?

No shit. That was a stupid statement

Just want to know if it was a poor WR class. What is Shepard ceiling : that theres more to him then meets the eye

In comment 13476903 xman said:

Quote:

Just want to know if it was a poor WR class. What is Shepard ceiling : that theres more to him then meets the eye

Shepard does have speed & quickness. Maybe he'll never be a 110-1200-10 type numbers in the slot (few do...), but he'll be solid and showed as much last year.

I look forward to training camp and seeing the leaps that last year's class will certainly make. I think last off-season will go down as the Giants best ever in terms of talent coming aboard. It will take 3 years to truly judge, maybe even four years, but I BET it will be a great grade, A+.

jumps in development are to a team's success AND why these jumps in talent can make evaluating a team from year to year difficult.

We saw solid play from CB Eli Apple for much of the season. He had some down times too BUT what rookie doesn't? He has the size and speed to matchup with today's NFL receivers. I predict he gets his technique down and becomes a "top quarter" of the NFL corner, someone you can leave "1 on 1" with top receivers and get good production. The triplets of Jenkinks, DRC and Apple will be a headache for everyone they face.

Sterling Sharpe had a very good campaign. He didn't display YAC ability and burst but he may improve there with some experience. Where I think he'll improve most is getting open in the short area. He may give up some playing time to Engram as we diversify our lineups and sets, but he'll have a very good year and become a blanket for Eli Manning.

FS D. Thompson flashed before his injury. He clearly gets the intellectual, technique part of the game. Assuming he is 100% for camp and stays healthy, he is an upgrade over UDFA Adams, who should also improve some. But D. Thompson can make this backfield the NFL's best if he is as good as the coaches think and stays healthy. A true mid-fielder.

MLB Goodson was a leader in college but didn't start much. He played special teams last year and learned the NFL game by watching. The coaches obviously like him as they didn't resign a veteran MLB. I look for him to be a run thumper and upgrade, but its just a guess since his body of work is small.

RB Perkins will bust out. He will share carries, sure, but he can run & catch which makes him very useful. I see him getting quite a few dump off passes, those easy ones where he is wide open and can get those 4 - 7 yards to keep the chains moving.

TE Adams flashed at times. His run blocking must improve and he has the physical tools to do it. I look for him to bring it this year and be part of 2 TE lineups at times. Ellison, Engram will get most of the playing time but he'll still see snaps and help.

UDFA Okwara played well as a rookie, filling in for JPP. Look for this kid to really step up now that he's had an off-season, weight room training and so forth. A DL rotation is best and he'll suit up each week.

Once again, I think last off-season will go down as one of the Giant all-time off-seasons in terms of UFA's, draft picks and UDFA additions who impact.

Bravo to Reese!

In comment 13476301 Klaatu said:

Quote:

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Shepard had a lot of catches.

You do realize that a somewhat dysfunctional offense actually hinders a wr, right?

In comment 13476318 Klaatu said:

Quote:

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Shepard had a lot of catches. But if you look at a rookie like Tajae Sharpe, sure, he didn't have as many catches, yards, or TDs, but his yac was more than two yards better, and he was also playing in the shadow of a top-tier WR and a highly productive pass-catching TE, on a team with a much stronger running game, but a much less experienced QB. So who was actually more impactful?

I'd say Shepard was more impactful since he out produced sharpe and played on a team that won more games. But stats can be misleading. Lol.

In comment 13477216 djm said:

Quote:

In comment 13476301 Klaatu said: Quote: It shouldn't come as a surprise that Shepard had a lot of catches. You do realize that a somewhat dysfunctional offense actually hinders a wr, right?

Absolutely. As has been noted, we ran pretty much the same formation 90% of he time making it easy for defenses to zero in on what we were doing and how to "man up" and stop the attack. Sterling did very well for a rookie and will be even more effective this year.

last year is ludicrous itself. He was a rookie and had 60+ catches and 8 tds. I don't think its even an opinion at that point when you compare him to history not just that year.

If you argue that Sheppard's game doesn't have that much room to grow, then I can agree. He's nothing special, but very very solid. He runs good routes and has good hands. I think fans are asking for too much. Just be glad he wasn't a bust. There's always room on a roster for a guy like him.

In comment 13478226 GuzzaBlue said:

Quote:

last year is ludicrous itself. He was a rookie and had 60+ catches and 8 tds. I don't think its even an opinion at that point when you compare him to history not just that year. If you argue that Sheppard's game doesn't have that much room to grow, then I can agree. He's nothing special, but very very solid. He runs good routes and has good hands. I think fans are asking for too much. Just be glad he wasn't a bust. There's always room on a roster for a guy like him.

Sterling won't likely be on the field for as many snaps this year (unless we have a hell of a lot more snaps, which we may....) but he'll likely produce better overall with a year's experience. I don't see him as a "100-1100-10" type slot guy necessarily (jury is out) but he'll always be solid and reliable none-the-less.

In comment 13478253 SGMen said:

Quote:

In comment 13478226 GuzzaBlue said: Quote: last year is ludicrous itself. He was a rookie and had 60+ catches and 8 tds. I don't think its even an opinion at that point when you compare him to history not just that year. If you argue that Sheppard's game doesn't have that much room to grow, then I can agree. He's nothing special, but very very solid. He runs good routes and has good hands. I think fans are asking for too much. Just be glad he wasn't a bust. There's always room on a roster for a guy like him. Sterling won't likely be on the field for as many snaps this year (unless we have a hell of a lot more snaps, which we may....) but he'll likely produce better overall with a year's experience. I don't see him as a "100-1100-10" type slot guy necessarily (jury is out) but he'll always be solid and reliable none-the-less.

I agree, he is a solid slot receiver with some potential to grow on.

At first he may not get as many looks. And I hear a lot of BBIers saying Sterling won't see the field that much and will take a bench role. First off, guys/gals, there is such a thing called injuries (I think we know something about that). Marshall has quite the injury history, even if its just a game here or a few games there. Also, there will be plenty of formations where Sheppard is not only included, but will be an important piece to the play calls. It's almost as if people didn't watch this kid last year. He was very good in the slot and with all the added size at WR, he will probably get almost all his looks from the inside again. Also, Engram will get plays off, as with Ellison. I believe Sheppard will still be an integral part of this offense.

we will be in great shape

In comment 13482936 xman said:

Quote:

we will be in great shape

Flowers and Hart are both 3rd year guys BUT both are younger than 6th round pick Bisnotway. So yeah, Flowers is the #1 guy we need to see may a big jump up in performance followed by Hart, Apple, D. Thompson, Perkins, Goodson, Okwara (pass rusher), Adams (2 TE block sets, goal line, redzone), FS Adams and WR R. Lewis.

While the biggest leap in learning, performance usually occurs between year 1 and 2; well, sometimes there is a delay due to youth, lack of college top notch experience, reps, immaturity, injury, dings, etc.

My list, in the general order of how I think things will play out rather than "Wish List" is as follows:

1. Flowers - I think he worked very hard this off-season. He has the physical tools; is only 23; and now has a 2nd off-season with top notch OL coach Solari. Look for him to jump from bottom five LT to the 12 - 14 range, give or take. I especially see him and Pugh being dominant run blockers.
2. Apple - the kid flashed well and now has a solid year under his belt. Look for him to start and be a Top 10 corner, yes top 10.
3. D. Thompson - if healthy, and I believe he'll be fine, this kid flashed centerfielder ability and leadership you rarely find in a rookie. A true shame he was hurt last year as he'd have made our defensive secondary almost impossible to throw on. He will solidify our secondary to league best, bar none, along with Apple.
4. B. Hart - this is a bit of a leap for even me but last year he was a bottom 5 RT, this year he steps up to acceptable level. A guy you can live with and when necessary protect with Ellison.
5. Sterling Shepard - look for this guy to become "Mr. Automatic" on 3rd downs.
6. P. Perkins - 1,000 yards +, 4.5 ypc +, and a bunch of those "I'm wide open" catches.
7. B. Goodson - starting MLB upgrades over Shepard.
8. A. Adams - he'll step up after a decent rookie year and be a solid backup, ST performer
9. J. Adams - big guy who can catch but how much his blocking steps up remains to be seen. I like that he'll be behind Ellison, learning.
10. Okwara - I love that he stepped in and held his own at DE when JPP went down.

Those are my top 10 to step up, ranked generally where I think it will fall. I'm ecstatic that we had a great off-season last year.