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NFT: Francesa rant on the NBA

LCtheINTMachine : 5/22/2017 11:19 pm
He may be a fat fool but he's spot on with how garbage the regular season has become.
Francessa destroys the NBA! - ( New Window )
it's not just the regular season  
MookGiants : 5/22/2017 11:22 pm : link
the first two rounds are pretty much worthless. Yeah you might have some entertaining series but the entertaining series are usually between teams who have no shot to make the nba finals so what do they even matter.

This year, the only meaningful games all year will occur in a 2.5 week period. almost 32 weeks of action and only 2.5 weeks matter
Yeah we've talked about this a lot on NBA threads.  
bceagle05 : 5/22/2017 11:31 pm : link
Zero intrigue this year. Can't wait for it to be over. At least our beloved Knicks provided some quality drama.
There was a caller over the weekend  
Ten Ton Hammer : 5/22/2017 11:37 pm : link
who made the very valid point that in the 1980s, the NBA was a two-team league with the Lakers and Celtics trading championships, and the pistons and sixers briefly sneaking in to be heard from in the odd year.


The NBA has never in my lifetime been an open field. It's always been dominated by two to three teams in any decade. I'm a bit confused that this has become a talking point like it's a new happening. Did we just forget?
.  
arcarsenal : 5/22/2017 11:43 pm : link
I've said this a billion time but I think it absolutely sucks when you have a league where you already know the two teams that will be playing in the Finals before a single game is even played.

You knew it was GS/CLE last year, and you know it's going to be GS/CLE this year. This is 3 years in a row now with the same Finals matchup.

How does anyone get excited about anything that happens in this league between November and June? It's so fucking anti-climactic.

I love watching LeBron and all - but I'd like to actually enjoy the league as a whole and I feel like watching any regular season game is completely pointless.

Very few people had teams like the Predators or Senators still playing in the NHL right now. No one had the Mets in the World Series back in early 2015. Sure, the Pats get to the SB most years these days - but there's always a chance they could trip up on their way there or be beaten when they do. Both Giants' runs were unpredictable and exciting.

I like that in the NFL, NHL, and MLB, there's some parity. It's not completely random and chaotic but I feel like if you can't go into a new season as a fan and feel like your team at least has some semblance of a chance once in a while, it pretty much sucks.

Forget the Knicks, even. If the Knicks still sucked but there was more of a competitive balance in the NBA, I'd be able to enjoy the league more.

I don't need results to be absolutely random - but when I already know who the last two teams standing will be 7 months before the fact, it gets pretty difficult to actually enjoy anything that happens in between. It's all window dressing.
.  
arcarsenal : 5/22/2017 11:46 pm : link
And I realize this isn't new for the NBA - it's a star-driven league where single players shift the balance in a major way. I just find it difficult to enjoy. It feels so pointless.

I've lost so much interest in this league over the years.
Maybe  
thomasa510 : 5/22/2017 11:48 pm : link
Maybe the answer is no max per player. Maybe a Lebrom James would end up taking 80% of a team cap but the stars would be more spread out
The way the NBA is set up, it's too good at separating the good teams  
Ten Ton Hammer : 5/22/2017 11:50 pm : link
from the middle of the pack. the 82 games is a meat grinder, the playoff seeding filters out most of the randomness, and then the playoff structure makes it nearly impossible for a team to reach for an upset.

It's great because the best team always wins, and it's an earned accomplishment, but nobody else has a prayer.

By the way, the length of the playoffs format is an atrocity. It takes for-fucking-ever.
I'm a tennis fan  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 5/23/2017 1:14 am : link
I knew it would be Nadal vs Federer for a long long time.

I loved that shit. Two fucking epic legends just going st it. Djokovic joined and it became him vs Nadal. I still loved that shit.

I watch more sports than probably anyone here. I feel confident saying that. Dick comment or not, believe that.

I've been waiting this entire season for LeBron and the Cavs vs. the lost talented team of all time. I'm so excited about it. I'm craving it. I can't wait for it.


Francesca is a dumb fat lazy fuck who thinks he's the shit. That might be enough to make you the leader of the free world, but it ain't enough for me to Give a fuck about your opinion on sports.
It's been boring for years.  
Dave in Hoboken : 5/23/2017 1:18 am : link
.
Yea last years Finals were  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 5/23/2017 1:19 am : link
Sooo boring
RE: It's been boring for years.  
Route 9 : 5/23/2017 2:47 am : link
In comment 13479030 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
.


Agreed. I don't see the reason why people even watch the NBA until the finals come around, even then its the same. You know whats gonna happen. Snore. NBA sucks.
I've been saying this for years but  
mattnyg05 : 5/23/2017 3:05 am : link
you have a league where the same dumpster fire teams get the top picks every year and teams tank out the ass to try and get the best players in the draft. With the exception of a rare few, do they actually get any better? I understand Golden State built through the draft, but now with the Durant signing they are an example of the rich getting richer (to their credit!!).

What it mediocre teams got rewarded for playing well? In other words, the better teams ended up with higher picks? Your first reaction is "how will this help deal with parity if good teams get better players???" and I understand the question-but hear me out. Imagine if a team that barely missed the playoffs or a team that got knocked out early had their choice of one of the top players in the draft this year-you don't think that would help erase the whole "two team league" crap? Adding really good players to an already good (but not great) team is a way to combat the issue we're staring at-rarely if ever does a team pull a Golden State because the stars aligned for them incredibly.

How to do that? Well that's for better people than me to figure out. A serpentine draft order (every team gets a top 10 pick at some point regardless of record) has been thrown around, but obviously we don't need clevelands or golden states adding number one picks. Maybe a serpentine order with the 3 top seeds excluded each year would do the trick. To the same point, a team like the Sixers should get banned from having a top 5 pick (unless it's via trade I guess) if they end up with one every fucking year.

Teams manipulate the draft so much that it does totally make the regular season anticlimactic. Imagine watching Knick games this season towards the end and actually being able to ROOT FOR YOUR TEAM TO WIN because it would help their draft status instead of hurt it???? You could have prime time matchups at the end of the year between bad teams knowing that the WINNER would earn a higher pick than the loser. That would make it exciting for me at least. Coaching staffs could prove their worth and correctly build for the future even during lost seasons by winning, instead of vaguely trying to lose (which helps only their draft status).

Lastly, I HATE Boston but look at what will happen this year-they get a number one pick, and it will really help them against Cleveland going forward. If their top pick pans out, it will help them become one of the 3 or 4 teams who actually have a shot (they're close now). Imagine if other teams with some stars added a top 10 pick instead of a low reward end of first rounder? They might make it a 5-10 team league instead. Food for thought at least.
sorry for rant  
mattnyg05 : 5/23/2017 3:06 am : link
Didn't realize how long that was.
I agree with Osi  
Vanzetti : 5/23/2017 3:30 am : link
I'm anticipating this Warrior-Cavs showdown way more than just about any finals in any sport in a longtime.

Way more than Penguins-Ducks (battle of the birds) or New England-Atlanta Super Bowl. World Series had drama because Cubs had not won in 108 years but at the level of pure competition Cubs-Indians has nowhere near the amount of anticipation as the NBA finals.

That World Series was one of the best all time  
Tuckrule : 5/23/2017 5:58 am : link
Osi and others are missing the point it's about the REGULAR SEASON being meaningless. You penciled the cavs warriors before game 1 of the season was even played. It's a crappy league when you know for a fact who will be there at the end
RE: It's been boring for years.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/23/2017 6:25 am : link
In comment 13479030 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
.


Yup. Last season's Finals was so boring...

I see the regular 'The NBA sucks' posters are out in full force.
Fat Mike  
RetroJint : 5/23/2017 6:32 am : link
has never liked the NBA. The rant is old. The Leonard injury robbed the playoffs of what would have been a seven-game conference final, in my opinion. The Spurs didn't have enough time to figure out how to play without him.

This has always been a dynastic league. Only 5 guys at a time out there. The ability of superstars to pretty much will victories. It will be a great Finals. The Celtics, given how poorly they have played, rank as the main disappointment.
It doesn't bother me..  
Sean : 5/23/2017 6:34 am : link
the finals will make up for it. I do think it hurt the league when Durant left OKC because it took away a legit title contender and strengthened an already title contender. You need more than 2 teams that have a legit chance to win a title.

With that said, the finals will be incredible. The NBA real estate is from mid May through mid July. Unless you are a true diehard, you aren't getting too worked up over the regular season & early playoff rounds.
It's impossible to take ny fans complaining about hoops seriously  
hitdog42 : 5/23/2017 6:47 am : link
The knicks have been the worst run franchise for 20 years and there are a lot of passionate knick fans-

St. John's stinks
Nobody cares about the nets

The NBA whining is a Tri state area issue - and it's understandable when the team has sucked, has a clown owner, and now a president who is mentally at burning man
But we knew this before the season even started  
ZogZerg : 5/23/2017 6:51 am : link
What took him so long to rant about it?
...  
christian : 5/23/2017 7:04 am : link
It's pretty tough when the 2 ascending underdogs in the conference finals both lose their best players.

The inevitability would be much different if a healthy Leonard and Thomas played the whole series.
Wanting to watch the best 2 teams slug it out is fine  
UConn4523 : 5/23/2017 7:07 am : link
but for the rest of us, by the time it gets there we simply don't care anymore.

Nadal/Federer wasn't manufactured, so I don't see how that's relevant. They were the 2 best players of their generation in a sport where it's only about the individual. Same with wanting to see prime Tiger.
RE: It's impossible to take ny fans complaining about hoops seriously  
mfsd : 5/23/2017 7:08 am : link
In comment 13479061 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
The knicks have been the worst run franchise for 20 years and there are a lot of passionate knick fans-

St. John's stinks
Nobody cares about the nets

The NBA whining is a Tri state area issue - and it's understandable when the team has sucked, has a clown owner, and now a president who is mentally at burning man


Bingo.
Mattnyg  
MetsAreBack : 5/23/2017 7:21 am : link
The Spurs haven't picked top 3 I don't think since Duncan

The Warriors built a team without top 3 picks

The rockets I don't think are lottery pick driven

The Celtics just got the number 1 pick despite making the ECF

The 76ers just got a top 3 pick by making an astute trade a few years ago where for some reason the Kings thought it smart to swap ones for a couple of late 2nd rounders

I share in frustration with how the nba peaks and valleys take so long. But there are proven ways to build a winner. Knicks haven't been patient enough or smart enough to play by the rules and build something. Hard to blame the league for that.
Well, the good news on the East Coast  
Frank in Silver Spring : 5/23/2017 7:55 am : link
Is that with the Finals starting at 9:15 p.m. or so, even if many of us cared to watch we wouldn't be up for the end anyway.
It Took Me Years To Realize...  
Jim in Tampa : 5/23/2017 8:05 am : link
That if your NBA team isn't one of the top two in the league, then they might as well be the Washington Generals.

Sure the NBA Finals can be exciting...but what fun is it to follow a sport where the regular season and almost all the playoffs don't really matter?
RE: Mattnyg  
mattnyg05 : 5/23/2017 8:21 am : link
In comment 13479066 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
The Spurs haven't picked top 3 I don't think since Duncan

The Warriors built a team without top 3 picks

The rockets I don't think are lottery pick driven

The Celtics just got the number 1 pick despite making the ECF

The 76ers just got a top 3 pick by making an astute trade a few years ago where for some reason the Kings thought it smart to swap ones for a couple of late 2nd rounders

I share in frustration with how the nba peaks and valleys take so long. But there are proven ways to build a winner. Knicks haven't been patient enough or smart enough to play by the rules and build something. Hard to blame the league for that.


Spurs got Duncan which was arguably the most important thing to happen to them. Rockets have been a second round team since that harden trade and no better (sometimes worse). Sixers tank every single season despite trade this year. Warriors got Curry in the top 10. Celtics made two great trades to their credit. My point is, keeping things the same way will never increase parity if that's the goal. It can't. And it is no fun to root for your team to lose every year once they're out of the race.
It doesnt matter to me  
gmen9892 : 5/23/2017 9:03 am : link
That the Finals will be great. It also doesn't matter that this has happened in the path. I will watch every single sport if there is just a bit of excitement or intrigue to it. I can safely say that I have watched about 20 minutes of the NBA this season total. I also believe that this is several years in a row now where the playoffs have completely underwhelmed.

That is 16 of the best teams the league has to offer and there has been only a handful of competitive games the entire way? Even the biggest NBA fan out there has to admit that this has been disappointing.
RE: It doesnt matter to me  
gmen9892 : 5/23/2017 9:03 am : link
In comment 13479178 gmen9892 said:
Quote:
That the Finals will be great. It also doesn't matter that this has happened in the path. I will watch every single sport if there is just a bit of excitement or intrigue to it. I can safely say that I have watched about 20 minutes of the NBA this season total. I also believe that this is several years in a row now where the playoffs have completely underwhelmed.

That is 16 of the best teams the league has to offer and there has been only a handful of competitive games the entire way? Even the biggest NBA fan out there has to admit that this has been disappointing.


Happened in the past.*
.  
arcarsenal : 5/23/2017 9:35 am : link
The Finals were great last year, and they'll be great this year I'm sure. I'll watch them.

The point is.. how much can you really enjoy watching a Clippers/Jazz or Wizards/Hawks series in the playoffs when you know it's nothing but a formality?

All those teams are playing for is the right to get eliminated by the Warriors or Cavs.

I think most people would agree that GS/CLE round 3 will be a good series - but I think it's fair to criticize a league where about 90% of what happens between November and June is meaningless.
RE: .  
Sean : 5/23/2017 9:40 am : link
In comment 13479218 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
The Finals were great last year, and they'll be great this year I'm sure. I'll watch them.

The point is.. how much can you really enjoy watching a Clippers/Jazz or Wizards/Hawks series in the playoffs when you know it's nothing but a formality?

All those teams are playing for is the right to get eliminated by the Warriors or Cavs.

I think most people would agree that GS/CLE round 3 will be a good series - but I think it's fair to criticize a league where about 90% of what happens between November and June is meaningless.


Unless you're a diehard you can't. Again, the NBA real estate is the conference semi's through FA. Maybe you pay a little attention on Christmas Day. That's just fact.
Conf finals I should say  
Sean : 5/23/2017 9:41 am : link
.
It wasn't always this way  
Dr. D : 5/23/2017 9:43 am : link
when I was a kid in the 70s, it seemed at the beginning of a season there were quite a few teams who had a shot at getting to the finals.

Look at the teams that won it in the 70s: Knicks, Bucks, Lakers, Celtics, Warriors, Supersonics, Bullets, Trail Blazers. The Bullets were always tough throughout the decade but didn't win it all until the late 70s. The 76ers with Dr. J and the Phoenix Suns also went to the finals.

I don't know what the answer is, but I've watched very few games in about 17 years (yeah I'm a Knick fan, but have better things to do than watch crappy bball).
whatever the formula was in the 70s  
Dr. D : 5/23/2017 9:45 am : link
they should get back to it. The Knicks might have a chance again!
Durant  
TyreeHelmet : 5/23/2017 9:47 am : link
Durant going to the Warriors really hurt the competitive landscape of the NBA.While I'm not a fan of Durant and don't like that he went to Golden State, I can't blame him. It's not his job to keep the NBA competitive.

But that Thunder Warriors series last year was incredible basketball. The Warriors have been pretty open that the last few years that they always viewed OKC as their biggest threat in the West and never truly feared the Spurs or anyone else. If we were in the middle of a tight series between OKC/ GSW with Cleveland up next, I think fans would feel a little differently. So instead of 5 weeks of great basketball we are going to get 2.

Durant going to Golden State really shifted everything. They have 4 all NBA top 20 players in their prime. With a solid bench and supporting cast. They have arguably the 3 best shooters in the game. The Cavs are the only team with a shot at them and other teams recognize that.
RE: RE: It's been boring for years.  
Dave in Hoboken : 5/23/2017 9:47 am : link
In comment 13479054 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In comment 13479030 Dave in Hoboken said:


Quote:


.



Yup. Last season's Finals was so boring...

I see the regular 'The NBA sucks' posters are out in full force.


So, 2 interesting weeks in an entire season. Bravo!
RE: Wanting to watch the best 2 teams slug it out is fine  
aimrocky : 5/23/2017 10:17 am : link
In comment 13479064 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but for the rest of us, by the time it gets there we simply don't care anymore.

Nadal/Federer wasn't manufactured, so I don't see how that's relevant. They were the 2 best players of their generation in a sport where it's only about the individual. Same with wanting to see prime Tiger.


Couldn't agree more. The extent of my NBA watching the last few years has been the first 30 Knicks games, and when the drama overtakes them I bail, then the Finals. This year I feel even less attached to the league than in prior years, so I may dip my toe in the water of the finals and if it doesn't catch my attention early, I may back out altogether.
RE: It wasn't always this way  
Deej : 5/23/2017 10:23 am : link
In comment 13479234 Dr. D said:
Quote:
when I was a kid in the 70s, it seemed at the beginning of a season there were quite a few teams who had a shot at getting to the finals.

Look at the teams that won it in the 70s: Knicks, Bucks, Lakers, Celtics, Warriors, Supersonics, Bullets, Trail Blazers. The Bullets were always tough throughout the decade but didn't win it all until the late 70s. The 76ers with Dr. J and the Phoenix Suns also went to the finals.

I don't know what the answer is, but I've watched very few games in about 17 years (yeah I'm a Knick fan, but have better things to do than watch crappy bball).


This chart tells you a lot about the history of the NBA. It is the standard deviation of winshares per 48 minutes (my favorite "advanced" stat) does it even better.



So basically in the 1950s to early 1970s there was a massive gulf between the best and worst players. That plus incredible pace led to some huge seasons from guys like Wilt and Oscar etc. Also led to domination by the Celtics in the Russell era.

Then everything changed in the 70s. The gap between the best and worst players crashed to the lowest it's ever been. And you got a decade of weird one-off title runs. It built back up in the 1980s and has stayed relatively flat since then. Hence a generation of the Bulls and multiple title winners who werent quite dynasties (there is some variability because overall league talent doesnt dictate roster decisions of specific teams).
source - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: It's been boring for years.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/23/2017 10:52 am : link
In comment 13479241 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
In comment 13479054 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


In comment 13479030 Dave in Hoboken said:


Quote:


.



Yup. Last season's Finals was so boring...

I see the regular 'The NBA sucks' posters are out in full force.



So, 2 interesting weeks in an entire season. Bravo!


Anytime there's an NBA thread you post something snarky about how the league sucks, you're not into it. It's annoying and tiresome. I don't like hockey, but you don't see me going into hockey threads and writing about how much I dislike the sport.
RE: RE: RE: RE: It's been boring for years.  
Dave in Hoboken : 5/23/2017 10:56 am : link
In comment 13479339 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In comment 13479241 Dave in Hoboken said:


Quote:


In comment 13479054 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


In comment 13479030 Dave in Hoboken said:


Quote:


.



Yup. Last season's Finals was so boring...

I see the regular 'The NBA sucks' posters are out in full force.



So, 2 interesting weeks in an entire season. Bravo!



Anytime there's an NBA thread you post something snarky about how the league sucks, you're not into it. It's annoying and tiresome. I don't like hockey, but you don't see me going into hockey threads and writing about how much I dislike the sport.


This is my 2nd NBA thread I've posted in in years, with both of them being from this week. I never post in NBA threads, no reason to.
Agree with the consensus here  
Mike in Long Beach : 5/23/2017 11:11 am : link
Football and its operational core take a lot of flack lately, but one thing you have to credit them for is they've created the optimal level of competitive balance.

- Are dynasties still possible? You bet (see New England).
- Are crazy upsets possible? Oh hai, Eli.
- Is the best way to build a team through buying players or the draft? It's the latter
- Are there super stars who never leave? See most good QBs

It's the one thing you can say the NFL got right. The top team has a distinct competitive advantage, but if the underdog comes to play, anything can happen.
RE: Agree with the consensus here  
Sean : 5/23/2017 11:14 am : link
In comment 13479362 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
Football and its operational core take a lot of flack lately, but one thing you have to credit them for is they've created the optimal level of competitive balance.

- Are dynasties still possible? You bet (see New England).
- Are crazy upsets possible? Oh hai, Eli.
- Is the best way to build a team through buying players or the draft? It's the latter
- Are there super stars who never leave? See most good QBs

It's the one thing you can say the NFL got right. The top team has a distinct competitive advantage, but if the underdog comes to play, anything can happen.


This is so true & why the NFL is so far ahead.
This is why the WNBA is better.  
BrettNYG10 : 5/23/2017 11:19 am : link
More parity, better fundamentals.
Most of the NBA regular  
PaulBlakeTSU : 5/23/2017 11:52 am : link
season is a formality as are many of the postseason series, where 80% of the teams are irrelevant-- yet what never fails is the willingness of fans to shell out absurd amounts of money to attend these games.

There are 120 NCAA FBS teams. How many of them actually have a shot at a national championship? People still watch their teams.

I agree that the NBA has always been about a few top-tier teams, but when there is a powerhouse in each conference, it does set up nicely for a heavyweight fight.

It just leads me to believe the regular season should be much shorter and there should be fewer playoff teams.

Isn't it blatantly obvious why the NFL has  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2017 12:10 pm : link
more parity? We're comparing a sport that has a 1 game playoff series to a sport that has a 7 game playoff series.

A team that has a 30% chance to beat Cleveland in one game has .3^4 chance to beat them in a playoff series.

The NFL wouldn't be much different than the NBA if they had 7 game playoff series. In fact, how many SBs WOULDNT the patriots have won over the last 13 years if that was the case?

It's simple math. Baseball is inherently a more volatile sport and all about who is hot/cold come playoff time. If the NBA had one game playoff series people would complain it's too much like the NCAA tournament.
I just plugged .3^4 in my calculator app  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2017 12:13 pm : link
That comes out to a less than 1% chance of beating Cleveland in a series. I'd say 30% is a fair % for a random EC playoff team to beat Cleveland in a single game.
.  
arcarsenal : 5/23/2017 12:14 pm : link
The NHL has 7 game series' too - and it's nothing like the NBA in terms of predictability.

Good chance PIT returns to the SCF for the 2nd year in a row but very few people had NSH coming out of the West.

I think there's a good balance. It's not completely random - but it's a grind and you have to earn every single bit of the Stanley Cup.
RE: .  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2017 12:24 pm : link
In comment 13479485 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
The NHL has 7 game series' too - and it's nothing like the NBA in terms of predictability.

Good chance PIT returns to the SCF for the 2nd year in a row but very few people had NSH coming out of the West.

I think there's a good balance. It's not completely random - but it's a grind and you have to earn every single bit of the Stanley Cup.


Well th NHL would be similar to baseball in that regard no? You're comparing sports where the total amount of points scored on average is say 5-10 (baseball and hockey) to a sport where the average total score is usually over 200. In hockey if a goalie slips or in baseball if an ace throws an off pitch and gives up a homer that affects the game more than if a center misses a rotation and gives up a bucket.

There's going to be more "regression to the mean" in the course of a single NBA game for a lack of better term compared to hockey or baseball. Over the course of the game a good defensive NBA team will play good NBA defense more likely than not. Comparatively, if Jake Arrieta accidentally lobs a changeup over the middle once out of 100 pitches and there's two guys on base, that can cost the game on one individual pitch. That really can't happen in basketball.

It's just comparing two completely different sports. Baseball, hockey, and soccer are all similar in scoring and can't really be compared to baskeball. Heck, football is closer to those than to basketball. An NBA team has what, about 80-100 possessions whereas in baseball there are about like 40 or so at bats ("possessions") per team. So there's twice the amount of opportunities for a team to "regress to the mean" in basketball.
RE: I just plugged .3^4 in my calculator app  
PaulBlakeTSU : 5/23/2017 12:42 pm : link
In comment 13479483 giantsfan44ab said:
Quote:
That comes out to a less than 1% chance of beating Cleveland in a series. I'd say 30% is a fair % for a random EC playoff team to beat Cleveland in a single game.


Your math is incorrect. .3^4 would spit out the likelihood of a team with a 30% of winning a single game winning four games in a row, and not winning 4 games out of 7.

The actual likelihood of a team with a 30% chance to win any independent game winning a best of 7 series is about 12.6%.
also  
PaulBlakeTSU : 5/23/2017 12:47 pm : link
that assumes 30% win likelihood in all games and doesn't account for home court advantage or any other variable-- just the odds of something with a 30% likelihood happening 4 times out of 7.
RE: RE: I just plugged .3^4 in my calculator app  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2017 12:49 pm : link
In comment 13479535 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
In comment 13479483 giantsfan44ab said:


Quote:


That comes out to a less than 1% chance of beating Cleveland in a series. I'd say 30% is a fair % for a random EC playoff team to beat Cleveland in a single game.



Your math is incorrect. .3^4 would spit out the likelihood of a team with a 30% of winning a single game winning four games in a row, and not winning 4 games out of 7.

The actual likelihood of a team with a 30% chance to win any independent game winning a best of 7 series is about 12.6%.


Yeah duh lol. Dumbass mistake on my part. Still very, very low.
Durant ruined  
Kyle in NY : 5/23/2017 12:50 pm : link
what could have been a really interesting season. GS/OKC was an epic series last season. He goes back to OKC like a competitive athlete should, and we have an interesting playoffs with 4-5 teams with a legit shot to win it. The east is still a joke but at least the west is fun. But he took the easy way out and we've got this crap. But at least we'll get a great finals

It's always going to be like this to some extent in the NBA. Individual players have such a big impact that true parity isn't really possible. And when there was parity, it created the most forgettable decade in modern NBA history (the 70s). But this has just gone too far. And the league knows it.

I went to the Sloan Sports Analytics conference at MIT and saw Adam Silver speak. He doesn't like this, but Durant had the power to go where he wanted so there wasn't anything he could do. At the same time the success of the league (and yes, it is very successful) led to an increase in the salary cap which allowed a team like GS cap space to get a player like Durant. It was the perfect storm and we got maybe the most boring season in NBA history. It's too bad cause it could have been great. Hopefully something changes, just so it's at least the way it was a few years ago. The Knicks getting a clue would help the interest around here of course.
RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 5/23/2017 12:51 pm : link
In comment 13479503 giantsfan44ab said:
Quote:
In comment 13479485 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


The NHL has 7 game series' too - and it's nothing like the NBA in terms of predictability.

Good chance PIT returns to the SCF for the 2nd year in a row but very few people had NSH coming out of the West.

I think there's a good balance. It's not completely random - but it's a grind and you have to earn every single bit of the Stanley Cup.



Well th NHL would be similar to baseball in that regard no? You're comparing sports where the total amount of points scored on average is say 5-10 (baseball and hockey) to a sport where the average total score is usually over 200. In hockey if a goalie slips or in baseball if an ace throws an off pitch and gives up a homer that affects the game more than if a center misses a rotation and gives up a bucket.

There's going to be more "regression to the mean" in the course of a single NBA game for a lack of better term compared to hockey or baseball. Over the course of the game a good defensive NBA team will play good NBA defense more likely than not. Comparatively, if Jake Arrieta accidentally lobs a changeup over the middle once out of 100 pitches and there's two guys on base, that can cost the game on one individual pitch. That really can't happen in basketball.

It's just comparing two completely different sports. Baseball, hockey, and soccer are all similar in scoring and can't really be compared to baskeball. Heck, football is closer to those than to basketball. An NBA team has what, about 80-100 possessions whereas in baseball there are about like 40 or so at bats ("possessions") per team. So there's twice the amount of opportunities for a team to "regress to the mean" in basketball.


Your point is well-taken, I realize that in the NHL, an entire game can change because of one bad mistake or a bad bounce.

In the NBA, if you come down the court and lob up an air ball or turn the ball over and it goes back the other way for a bucket, it's probably not a big deal unless you're in crunch time late in the game.

I think that adds to the intensity of the other sports, though.. singular mistakes - an interception, a hanging curveball, a defensive zone turnover - can all loom large and have legitimate impact on the outcome of the game.

If Kyrie Irving throws a shitty pass in the 2nd quarter of a playoff game and it goes back the other way for a basket, no one is going to look back at it and feel like it was a turning point because the Cavs will wind up having the ball about 75 more times.
RE: also  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2017 12:52 pm : link
In comment 13479546 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that assumes 30% win likelihood in all games and doesn't account for home court advantage or any other variable-- just the odds of something with a 30% likelihood happening 4 times out of 7.


Yeah I was just picking a random number to illustrate my point.

Obviously the impact 1 star player makes in the NBA and the fact that such stars like teaming up doesn't help the competitive balance, but the nature of the sport itself leads to less volatility compared to any other team sport I can think of.
I don't think it adds "intensity" so much as it adds  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2017 12:59 pm : link
randomness. For me anyways, I think basketball is intense because the ball is always live. Even when a player is dribbling the clock down there's always anticipation for what's going to happen. It's insane if you're a defender or a player off the ball in that situation. An off-ball defender can screw up the last play of the game by running into a screen.

I wouldn't say I like football or basketball more than one another, but football and baseball can be a drain at times because most of the time spent watching the game is spent watching players not actually playing the game. A football play lasts what, 5 seconds? And it takes 40 seconds to lead up to that play? Similar for baseball too.
.  
arcarsenal : 5/23/2017 1:04 pm : link
Well, the puck is always live in hockey too. There's no out of bounds. It's not uncommon for a stretch of play to last nearly 10 minutes. But the scoring structure is far different - each goal is a big deal. In the NBA, teams score 40-50x a game so missed shots/opportunities are far easier to overcome.
RE: .  
santacruzom : 5/23/2017 5:24 pm : link
In comment 13479010 arcarsenal said:
Quote:

I like that in the NFL, NHL, and MLB, there's some parity. It's not completely random and chaotic but I feel like if you can't go into a new season as a fan and feel like your team at least has some semblance of a chance once in a while, it pretty much sucks.

Forget the Knicks, even. If the Knicks still sucked but there was more of a competitive balance in the NBA, I'd be able to enjoy the league more.


But on the other hand, both the Warriors and the Cavs (but far more so the Warriors) sucked for decades, and now they're elite teams. As a fan of one of those teams that sucked for decades, that's kind of nice.

I really hope this happens to the Giants some day.
RE: Durant  
santacruzom : 5/23/2017 5:38 pm : link
In comment 13479239 TyreeHelmet said:
Quote:
The Warriors have been pretty open that the last few years that they always viewed OKC as their biggest threat in the West and never truly feared the Spurs or anyone else.


Wait, what? Maybe there's a Draymond Green quote out there that can be interpreted in that manner, but the Warriors always have respect and a healthy fear of the Spurs... with good reason.

I understand why people think this series was bound to go 7 games prior to the Kawhi injury. Honestly, anything could have happened and I wouldn't have been surprised by any of them (except for a Spurs sweep). I think the Warriors would have won in 5 or 6, but I wouldn't even have been surprised if they came back in game 1 even without the Kawhi injury -- after all, they did so in March down 20, without Durant, on the back end of a back to back.

With two teams of that caliber, anything could have happened. Similarly, anything can happen in the Finals.
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