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Reddit analysis of pass rush finisher vs disruptor (OV)

Sonic Youth : 5/26/2017 3:09 pm
Thought this was an interesting post and wanted to share. A little deep dive into pass rushing finishers vs disruptors, and some props for our boy OV.

Was surprised not to see JPP on the disruptors list as well.


Link - ( New Window )
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Oh and if Vernon is going to be paid like an elite player,  
Go Terps : 5/31/2017 2:51 pm : link
he could stand to take a leadership role and attend the OTAs. We drafted two defensive linemen that would probably benefit from being around him.
JPP was invisible the first half to 3/4 of season?  
KWALL2 : 5/31/2017 4:57 pm : link
Sure.

In week 1 he was one of the key factors in the win. One of our best players. Consistent pressure that impacted the game including back-to-back pressure that forced a punt at the end of the game.
Terps  
KWALL2 : 5/31/2017 5:06 pm : link
I am not pointing to one metric with the pressures. It simply brought up to the guys who post sack numbers as their only evaluation tool. And there are a lot of those guys. Some of the comments on this thread make me cringe. My 9 year old knows more then some here.

The NFL guys grade every snap. The guys who work for he NY Giants are telling the "he's average" group they are wrong.

They didn't pay him big $$$ for any other reason then how they graded his play. They don't grade it on sacks or even pressures. Although a guy who gets consistent pressure will grade high and he can do it without sack numbers.

So who has it right here? Come on. On one hand, we have a group of fans here who can't look past sack numbers. Guys are saying he was "invisible in the first half of the year". That is BS based on nothing but a casual fan looking at sack numbers. And then on the other hand we have the NFL scouts and coaches grading the guy.

Based on that grade, they tagged him. Why? Because they would have lost him because other football professionals had a high grade on him.

So which side is right? Which side is working with the information needed to make an informed judgement here?

KWALL  
Go Terps : 5/31/2017 5:45 pm : link
"The pros know better than us so we should not question them" argument doesn't really hold water, because they make errors (some of them enormous) all the time in every area of personnel acquisition and management.

And while sacks aren't the end all be all, they are a useful metric...more measurable, certainly, than pressures. The Reddit post might have been a bit more informative if it investigated the relationship between pressures and sacks.

Not everything is about numbers...especially at a position where so little is measured statistically...but if we can qualitatively point to JPP/Vernon being effective without generating high sack totals, we can also qualitatively point to the stretches of the season where they were rendered completely ineffective.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Do we have a good definition for what comprises a  
santacruzom : 5/31/2017 6:41 pm : link
In comment 13486488 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:

That's a little harder to find. I do know that for the purposes of their grading, a QB is officially holding the ball too long at 4 seconds or more.


Four seconds?! That seems just a tad generous.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Do we have a good definition for what comprises a  
Ten Ton Hammer : 5/31/2017 6:44 pm : link
In comment 13486862 santacruzom said:
Quote:
In comment 13486488 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:



That's a little harder to find. I do know that for the purposes of their grading, a QB is officially holding the ball too long at 4 seconds or more.



Four seconds?! That seems just a tad generous.


It definitely seems so now, given how many passers get the ball out under 3 seconds these days. Three seconds used to be the old wisdom.
Terps  
KWALL2 : 5/31/2017 7:17 pm : link
Of course they make errors. And sometimes guys who performed welll pack it in after getting paid, get injured, or simply do not perform at the same level.

But it does not change the obvious: the NFL teams grade the players on every snap to evaluate while fans do it with sack numbers. And then the fans call out the player and team for the contract based on their sack number research, limited knowledge, and failing memory. That isn't funny to you? Come on.

My posts weren't really pointed to you, although your attempt to knock the value of QB pressure seems odd to me.
RE: KWALL  
David in LA : 5/31/2017 7:20 pm : link
In comment 13486810 Go Terps said:
Quote:
"The pros know better than us so we should not question them" argument doesn't really hold water, because they make errors (some of them enormous) all the time in every area of personnel acquisition and management.

And while sacks aren't the end all be all, they are a useful metric...more measurable, certainly, than pressures. The Reddit post might have been a bit more informative if it investigated the relationship between pressures and sacks.

Not everything is about numbers...especially at a position where so little is measured statistically...but if we can qualitatively point to JPP/Vernon being effective without generating high sack totals, we can also qualitatively point to the stretches of the season where they were rendered completely ineffective.


Obviously you know that pressure leads to turnovers, rushed throws, not going through all your reads, etc.
There we no stretch  
KWALL2 : 5/31/2017 7:23 pm : link
of the season where JPP was ineffective. None. The only way to see it that way is to rely on sack numbers.

And that's my point about the NFL evaluation and his contract. They didn't give that deal to a guy who was ineffective for stretches. It wasn't based on padding numbers vs Cleveland. They based it on his grade over 1000 plays this season.

His excellent play was apparent in week 1(yes QB pressures and great run D!) and it continued all year.
.  
Go Terps : 5/31/2017 7:56 pm : link
I'm not questioning the importance of pressuring the quarterback; I'm questioning the validity of the statistic. It's already been pointed out that their threshold for a QB holding the ball too long is 4 seconds. That isn't too long...it's an eternity.

KWALL...JPP was effective in Green Bay? In Minnesota? At home against Philly or Baltimore? I don't remember it that way. And even if you want to disagree with me on those, I'll give you five games you can't argue...the last five of the season, which he missed (he went out in the first half in Pittsburgh) through injury.

JPP has started 16 games just once his entire career...and I don't know how many of those games he started with a significant injury but I'm certain that number isn't zero. That has to matter too. His cap number in 2016 was $9.75M, and we got 11 games for that. Next year his cap number is $7.5M, which we can all live with...but in 2018-2020 that number jumps to $17.5M-$19.5M. For that kind of money he would have to be Lawrence Taylor to justify playing 11-12 healthy games a season.

My point all offseason regarding JPP/OV is that we are now in a position where if they are not elite players we are throwing away cap space. They are the absolute foundation of this team now for the next 3-4 years.

In that context you may be comfortable with their 2016 contributions. I am not.
4 second rule?  
KWALL2 : 5/31/2017 8:31 pm : link
That's a new one.
RE: 4 second rule?  
Go Terps : 5/31/2017 8:46 pm : link
In comment 13486999 KWALL2 said:
Quote:
That's a new one.


I'm not sure you follow. Read above.
Yeah I read it  
KWALL2 : 6/1/2017 1:04 am : link
And I don't care about a few plays here and there wher the QB holds the ball for 4 seconds.

BTW, Vic Beasley is Premier and our guys aren't? That's a good one.

He got his ass kicked up and down the field in the super bowl and plenty of other games. He isn't better than our guys.
RE: This shows that Brandon Graham is a very effective  
eclipz928 : 6/1/2017 6:19 am : link
In comment 13483748 gersh said:
Quote:
Pass rusher.
The Eagles traded up to get Graham while the Giants stood pat and took JPP. It's been clear the Giants got the much better player. But now that the second contract has the Giants paying 62 mil over 4 years to retain their 1st round DE while the Eagles reupped Graham for just 26 mil for 4 years - the relative value of each player is much more debateable.

Eagles committed robbery with that contract, and it seems that maybe Graham is starting to realize it.

On a side note, the quote from Doug Pederson regarding Graham not showing up to OTAs is an approach that I wish McAdoo would have taken regarding Beckham.
Graham not happy with contract? - ( New Window )
KWALL  
Go Terps : 6/1/2017 11:07 am : link
Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks and was first team All-Pro in 2016, and he did it at a fraction of the cap number of either JPP or Vernon.

And he got whipped against the Pats, but JPP and Vernon didn't in Green Bay?

How far are we going to go with the bullshit here?
how much are you really hedging  
UConn4523 : 6/1/2017 11:18 am : link
guys on rookie contracts? A more direct comparison would be a pass rusher we drafted that high which hasn't happened since we took JPP 7 years ago and his sophomore season was better than Beasleys.
point being  
UConn4523 : 6/1/2017 11:19 am : link
lets see how these guys on rookie contracts do after they get paid. Until then of course their value is going to be a lot better.
UConn  
Go Terps : 6/1/2017 11:29 am : link
But that's part of my point...the position is so overpriced that signing these guys to a second contract is more likely than not going to end up a mistake.

Overpaying a defensive end, like we did for both Vernon and JPP, is far more punitive than overpaying at a traditionally less expensive position. When the time for Beasley's next contract approaches, Atlanta might be best served to trade him for a gaggle of picks rather than to pay him.
ehh  
UConn4523 : 6/1/2017 11:39 am : link
very flawed POV, imo. Who's the replacement? Usually a high draft pick and we all know the price assigned to that (either a bad season or expending assets to move up in the draft).

If you then settle for a middle of the road player you are still overpaying and you are almost guaranteed to see a significant drop-off in performance.

We just saw the market for Guards reach exuberant levels so what positions would we even be saving the money for?
RE: KWALL  
Klaatu : 6/1/2017 11:47 am : link
In comment 13487405 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks and was first team All-Pro in 2016, and he did it at a fraction of the cap number of either JPP or Vernon.

And he got whipped against the Pats, but JPP and Vernon didn't in Green Bay?

How far are we going to go with the bullshit here?


A little disingenuous with that "fraction of the cost" remark, don't you think? After all, Beasley is still playing on his rookie contract.

How much do you think he'll get when that contract is up? Well, whatever it is, we know you wouldn't pay it.

Oh, and JPP wasn't in Green Bay.
This is the same guy that called JJ Watt  
Keith : 6/1/2017 11:48 am : link
overrated. That needs to be brought up every time Terps starts mouthing off about our star DE's.

Signing these guys hasn't prevented us from being stacked everywhere else. We have a franchise QB who is one of the most expensive. We have amazing weapons at WR and a good young RB. We have arguably the best secondary in the game. If signing these guys made us lose Eli, maybe you have somewhat of a point about paying these guys. The only thing it prevented was us overpaying for Hankins which wasn't necessary. The alternative of letting JPP walk and then drafting a guy is not better. What is the success rate of rookies producing at this level?

JPP and Vernon are both in the upper echelon of DE's in teh game. They are well rounded, albeit not pass rushing specialists. Everyone with a brain realizes how good and important they are to this team.

JJ Watt. Enough said.
I wouldn't be saving money for positions,  
Go Terps : 6/1/2017 11:48 am : link
I'd be saving it for players. I'd focus on upgrading depth across the roster, and always maintaining cap space in the event it's needed in an emergency or in the event that a generational player comes along that is worth it.
Oh, JPP was in Green Bay  
Go Terps : 6/1/2017 11:49 am : link
Or did you forget the regular season game where Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were marveling at how Aaron Rodgers routinely had 5+ seconds to throw the ball comfortably?
.  
arcarsenal : 6/1/2017 11:53 am : link
Who are the Giants actually supposed to pay?

We don't want to play non-elite players "elite" money (Vernon/JPP)

We don't want to pay elite players like Beckham "elite" money because he's an asshole.

Just fill the roster with league average players and put league average players behind them as depth?

We also don't want to keep paying a QB because that hurts the team  
Keith : 6/1/2017 11:55 am : link
so lets also keep drafting QB's and keep them in the rookie pay scale.
Terps  
UConn4523 : 6/1/2017 12:08 pm : link
I just don't really think that strategy works save for 1 or 2 teams who conveniently have the best QB's of the era.

The other 29/30 NFL teams can't operate that way with consistency. JJ Watt got paid. Von Miller got paid. Khalil Mack will be getting paid. There's obviously risk on what happens when they get paid, but spreading out the money you save also has risk since it will likely be for players that aren't as good.
UConn  
Go Terps : 6/1/2017 12:16 pm : link
Completely agree; there are risks to any approach. But spreading out the money spreads the risk. If a player underperforms for any reason he will be easier to replace both in season and in the offseason.

I have no problems paying Von Miller. He wrecks games. Give me a good coaching staff, Von Miller, and a team of average players with average players for depth across the board and I think that's a playoff team.
Both Vernon and JPP  
KWALL2 : 6/1/2017 8:45 pm : link
Are better players than Beasley. That isn't bull shit.

All you have for Beasley is sack numbers (in one season). That's not enough. Not close.
.  
Go Terps : 6/1/2017 10:11 pm : link
I'm sorry but if you're saying that in 2016 our DEs were better than Beasley you just aren't being objective, which would put you in the company of most fans since we overpaid our guys.
Beasley wasn't better  
KWALL2 : 6/2/2017 3:15 am : link
I know you didn't watch him this year. He was a bust in year one. Last year he found a role. Outside spees rusher.

They line him out wide and he does the same thing. Speed rush outside. That's it. He picked up 15 sacks doing it (half of them vs 2nd and 3rd sting in 2 games) and made some big plays. And then we had the guy playing on 800 other snaps all year. He was invisible often and terrible vs the run all season.

That doesn't make him better than 2 guys who are exceptional run defenders while applying consistent pressure all year.

Our guys were better players in 2016. But maybe not to the typical fan looking at that sack numbers only.
Beasley, Miller, et al.  
adamg : 6/2/2017 3:31 am : link
Would make sense as additions for Terps' team... they would consistently be picking in the top 10.
You are insane if you would take Beasley  
Keith : 6/2/2017 10:34 am : link
over Vernon and JPP. I am fully convinced that you don't want any football outside the Giants(debatable) and only look at stats. For you to say that JJ Watt is overrated and Beasley is better than our two, I have no other explanation other than you have no clue what you see(which I don't believe to be the case). Beasley is literally a 1 trick pony up to this point. He was solid at getting to the passer and finishing last year, but that's all he can do. Both Vernon and JPP are exceptional against the run(which is what our gameplan dictates first and foremost) and they are both above average pass rushers at a minimum.

Again, our defensive game plan doesn't have these guys pinning their ears back and going after the QB on every play. They need to focus on stopping the run first and they do that exceptionally well. I'd be interested to see the rankings on these guys and the grades on their pass rushing and run stopping in 2016.
KWALL  
Go Terps : 6/2/2017 11:24 am : link
You're right, I didn't see a lot of Beasley last year. Is this when you tell me you did?

Every single GM in the NFL would take Beasley over our guys, you know why? Because he was a better player in 2016 and his cap number was not even half of theirs. Any GM that wouldn't trade our guys for Beasley should be fired immediately.

Welcome to BBI, where posters will go to such lengths as to...

- Ignore the salary cap
- Devalue the sack statistic
- Overvalue the nebulous and subjective "pressure" statistic
- Ignore first team All Pro status

...all in order to rationalize exorbitant contracts that our front office gave to good, but not great, players at the second most expensive position on the field.

The rationalization and homerism knows no bounds. If one of Vernon or JPP is as productive in 2017 as Beasley was in 2016, everyone here will go crazy talking about what a genius Reese was.
.  
arcarsenal : 6/2/2017 11:30 am : link
If you're talking about players sans-salary, I'm not so sure most NFL GM's would take Beasley over Vernon/JPP.

In fact, I bet many wouldn't.

Vernon and JPP are better-rounded players. Defending the run and controlling the edges is a major part of playing DE and our guys are both exceptional in that regard.

Sacks = better player is very.... Madden-ish.

Sacks matter and you like to see your guys rack them up, but its far from the true measure of a defensive player.
Doubling down on the stupid  
Keith : 6/2/2017 11:37 am : link
nice work.
Now everyone except me is an expert on Beasley  
Go Terps : 6/2/2017 11:46 am : link
Got it.
.  
arcarsenal : 6/2/2017 11:59 am : link
Well, the thing is, you're comparing guys who are deployed differently. ATL uses Beasley as an OLB edge rusher which they weren't really doing his first year. It had a lot to do with his sack number increasing so dramatically.

We don't deploy Vernon or JPP the same way.

Vernon and JPP are better two-way players who are fantastic at defending the run. Beasley is more of a pure edge rusher.
RE: .  
Go Terps : 6/2/2017 12:31 pm : link
In comment 13488507 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Well, the thing is, you're comparing guys who are deployed differently. ATL uses Beasley as an OLB edge rusher which they weren't really doing his first year. It had a lot to do with his sack number increasing so dramatically.

We don't deploy Vernon or JPP the same way.

Vernon and JPP are better two-way players who are fantastic at defending the run. Beasley is more of a pure edge rusher.


I am not making that comparison, the Reddit post is.

Maybe they are better at defending the run. But in a pass happy league is that the type of player that should be paid premier cap space? I would argue not.

But more to the point, I suspect that if we had Beasley and the Falcons had our guys, every poster here would be talking about how Beasley is the better player.
RE: Now everyone except me is an expert on Beasley  
Keith : 6/2/2017 12:46 pm : link
In comment 13488490 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Got it.


Since we are in the trust tree, lets be honest with ourselves. You've made many comments in the past about not watching football outside of the Giants because you don't like the direction of the game. You clearly don't watch a lot of football. You said JJ Watt was overrated and you are basing that solely on his salary and how the defense played without him. JJ Watt is as disruptive of a player as you will find on defense. He and Von Miller are on an island of their own(I think Khalil Mack is on his way).

Other people watch football outside of the Giants. Vic Beastly had success rushing the passer and finishing. That was his job. The Falcons were built to score points and then go after the passer. Similar to the Colts with Dwight Freeney in the Manning era. They were one of the worst run defenses in football and teams couldn't expose that because they were behind so much. Beasley doesn't need to do the things that JPP and Vernon need to do. JPP and Vernon are a major part of why the Giants were one of, if not the best run defense in football last year. JPP(annualized) and Vernon were in the top 5 of tackles in the NFL amongst DE's. JPP(annualized) and Vernon were in the top 5 in sacks in the NFL amongst DE's. Not to mention, JPP and Vernon played over 90% of the snaps and Beasley only 60% so there's that too.

Your only argument is that Beasley is paid less and it really doesn't mean much. He's on a rookie contract and he will either get paid a lot by Atlanta or paid a lot by someone else and Atlanta will get a few good years and it will be a wasted #8 pick. Then they'll have to replace him and hope to hit on another high pick. Not to mention, Beasley is currently counting 4M against the cap, JPP is counting 7.5.

What you are saying is both factually incorrect and logically doesn't make sense. However, yes, Beasley does have more sacks,so.......
.  
arcarsenal : 6/2/2017 12:49 pm : link
Meh, that's a straw-man.

If grandma had balls, she'd be grandpa.

Of course edge rushers who can get to the QB have a lot of value in this league. But part of the reason why the Giants defense was so good last year was because they were able to stifle a lot of teams on the ground, which forced them to become more one-dimensional.

I think Vernon and JPP are more well-rounded players than Beasley is.

It seems like the only players you'd ever want to pay are players that we draft that are generational talents (unless he's an asshole, then we don't want to pay him either)

Damon Harrison really isn't a pass rushing DT but I don't think anyone would argue that his value is less because the league is pass-happy. In fact, he was probably one of the best FA signings made league-wide if not the best last year.
"Maybe they are better defending the run"?  
KWALL2 : 6/2/2017 12:53 pm : link
Maybe?

Our guys are 2 of the best in the league there.

Beasley is one of the worst.

No "maybe" here and that kind of comment that makes it obvious you're only looking at the sack numbers. Plenty do the same.

Sometimes there is more going on with a player than a stat. This is one of those cases. Is the guy explosive off the ball? He'll yeah. Does he bring a valuable skill to the table? He'll yeah again but his overall game wasn't better than our guys. He's a much different player and a player with some big holes in his game. Our guys are complete players.

It comes down to praising a guy blindly based on one statt.
RE: KWALL  
Dave in Hoboken : 6/2/2017 1:03 pm : link
In comment 13488461 Go Terps said:
Quote:
You're right, I didn't see a lot of Beasley last year. Is this when you tell me you did?

Every single GM in the NFL would take Beasley over our guys, you know why? Because he was a better player in 2016 and his cap number was not even half of theirs. Any GM that wouldn't trade our guys for Beasley should be fired immediately.

Welcome to BBI, where posters will go to such lengths as to...

- Ignore the salary cap
- Devalue the sack statistic
- Overvalue the nebulous and subjective "pressure" statistic
- Ignore first team All Pro status

...all in order to rationalize exorbitant contracts that our front office gave to good, but not great, players at the second most expensive position on the field.

The rationalization and homerism knows no bounds. If one of Vernon or JPP is as productive in 2017 as Beasley was in 2016, everyone here will go crazy talking about what a genius Reese was.


Sacks haven't mattered as much on this site as soon as JPP stopped getting as many as he used to. Not a coincidence.
Terps  
KWALL2 : 6/2/2017 1:06 pm : link
I'm not talking about Salary cap or anything other than who was better in 2016. Our guys were better players.

If you want to change that to who do you take going forward or based on cap hit then that's a different argument isn't it?

It was so predictable that Beasley would be a no show in the super bowl. His game consisted of splitting out wide and an outside rush. That is it. He abused a few teams on it. (Piled up sacks vs 3 teams with backup OL) However, he really didn't do it against quality OL and that's what we saw in the SB. He was easily eliminated by a guy who can handle the outside rush. NE OL had bigger problems with Mercilus from HOU because he can do more than just run around an OT.

He need to develop more than just the outside rush. That is all he had in 2016. And his 15 sacks don't make him better than outstanding 2 way DEs. This guy isn't close to Miller and Mack. He's a one trick guy. A valuable guy but he wasn't a better player in 2016 than Vernon and JPP.
Terps  
KWALL2 : 6/2/2017 1:08 pm : link
One more time....

Sacks don't mean "production". There is more to it especially when we're talking about 4-3 DE vs a LB with just a speed rush.
Sacks always need to be taken in their context  
Ten Ton Hammer : 6/2/2017 2:36 pm : link
Robert Ayers had 9 sacks for the Giants in 2015, and nobody was sorry to see him leave. 4 of them came in losses where the defense allowed 35+ points.
.  
Go Terps : 6/2/2017 2:52 pm : link
I guess the people that named Beasley first team All Pro don't know what they're doing.
.  
arcarsenal : 6/2/2017 3:17 pm : link
Is anyone arguing that Vic Beasley isn't a good player?
The salary argument is extremely disingenuous  
Eric on Li : 6/2/2017 3:29 pm : link
Is every WR making more than 4M overpaid because they aren't head and shoulders better than Beckham? Obviously guys on their rookie deals are going to be below market value.

Also, why is using AAV the best metric to judge? Guaranteed money is almost always more important since the later years tend to just inflate the AAV when very few play out their full contracts untouched. Both JPP/Vernon got $10M guaranteed per year of their contract. Von Miller appropriately got more than that despite never hitting the open market (70M gtd/6 years).

In terms of judging performance/value, it would seem to me that:
a) there's no surefire way to quantify which of OV/JPP/Beasley are the best football players (for their past careers or going forward)
b) it's obvious all are good players whom most teams would be happy to have

So what exactly is the argument against OV/JPP? Beasley is better because sacks are the more important stat? Seems to go against the entire point of the original post which exploring value beyond sacks.
RE: RE: .  
santacruzom : 6/2/2017 3:33 pm : link
In comment 13488552 Go Terps said:
Quote:

But more to the point, I suspect that if we had Beasley and the Falcons had our guys, every poster here would be talking about how Beasley is the better player.


I'm not so sure about that. If Beasley were on our team last year, the need for him to provide run support would have been much greater than it was as a Falcon. I think this is just a product of our offense as much as anything -- we weren't exactly putting our opponents in a position where they'd abandon the run.

I think our 2016 record would have been much worse if our 2016 opponents were more capable of running with consistency against us.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Go Terps : 6/2/2017 5:27 pm : link
In comment 13488787 santacruzom said:
Quote:
In comment 13488552 Go Terps said:


Quote:



But more to the point, I suspect that if we had Beasley and the Falcons had our guys, every poster here would be talking about how Beasley is the better player.



I'm not so sure about that. If Beasley were on our team last year, the need for him to provide run support would have been much greater than it was as a Falcon. I think this is just a product of our offense as much as anything -- we weren't exactly putting our opponents in a position where they'd abandon the run.

I think our 2016 record would have been much worse if our 2016 opponents were more capable of running with consistency against us.


I think if we had Beasley instead of one or the other we would have been much better off. This team had a terrible time generating a conventional pass rush.
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