NFT: Fantasy Football thoughts on Giants

In comment 13485276 pjcas18 said:

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I usually do that too, just not with Eli. I've done well in the past with getting guys like Carson Palmer or Rivers, but last year if you did this with Eli and your league is QB heavy (6pt per passing TD) you were in trouble.

Yea, Eli was pretty bad last year. I had him in my keeper league and basically ended up streaming QBs throughout the season. Luckily my keepers were/are strong (D Johnson, Beckham, and Green) so I was able to overcome it.

In comment 13485289 EricJ said:

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Why is it odd logic? It was not a blanket statement about whether it works for other players on other teams. It is a statement about the Giants. Please tell me when this offense produced two top performing fantasy players? Please tell me where the confidence comes from which would make you feel comfortable spending higher picks on anyone other than OBJ this season? I like to see things proven before I use my picks. Would rather see someone else hit a home run with a guy like Marshall on this team vs me take the chance and strike out. To answer the other question from the other poster... I would pick Brown and Jones over OBJ. No other WR over him. Definitely Bell and Elliott over him too. I did not do any kind of draft analysis yet to go beyond that. He may or may not be my #5.

I was talking about your 'logic' as applied to Beckham not being worth a top 5-6 overall pick because the other guys would eat into his targets.

In comment 13485322 UConn4523 said:

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why aren't you factoring in less doubles/triples for coverage? Wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that Beckham should have a better opportunity to bust open weaker coverage more frequently?

you are correct, but you also have to factor having to give Marshall the ball and Engram since he was our top pick, Vereen back, etc etc

In the end we can agree that there is some uncertainty. I like to be as certain as possible if I am selecting in the top 5

seems you've chosen to weigh it a lot more with OBJ than others

I am comfortable with my methods and my rationale. It is proven to work for me. My team is near the top of whatever league I am playing in every year. I miss on selections but I miss on fewer selections than everyone else. There are players who I simply will not touch.

Example was Megatron. I told people I am not selecting him unless he is available in the 3rd round (which means I was not selecting him). The guy was hurt or he would have a gigantic game and then follow it up with nothing the following week. You need consistency. So, I opted not to draft him ever. Then, you see him put up games with one catch or come up small in some way when you would have been better off drafting a RB or another WR who can give you a guaranteed 12-15 points per week with the occasional huge game but never a shit game.

Another guy on my list like that right now is Gronk. You can have him. I watch people draft him at the end of the first round or the beginning of the 2nd. The guy is in the ice tub more than on the field. He kills your fantasy team despite his undeniable talent and occasional 3 TD games.

In comment 13485501 YAJ2112 said:

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seems you've chosen to weigh it a lot more with OBJ than others

again, it is not OBJ I have a problem with. It is the Giants offense and the uncertainty of what his role and ball disbursement will be with all of the new talent.

I simply cannot see why some of you guys do not see that. I am not saying dont draft the guy I just do not like him in the top 5.

expectations due to Marshall and Engram wouldn't you need to adjust Brown due to Martavis Bryant coming back, no suspension for Bell, the addition of 2nd round pick JuJu Smith-Schuster, etc.

I think sometimes fans of teams look too hard at situations to justify opinions.

You can add more pieces around him, but Beckham will almost certainly get the same targets every year. Maybe even more this year as others have mentioned due to the less attention teams should be able to give him.

It's like Edelman in New England. The Patriots even with Amendola, Gronk, Bennett, White, Lewis, Hogan, Blount, Malcolm Mitchell, etc. somehow managed to target Edelman more than ever in any year this past year - and even with the injuries had more weapons than any other year.

this is the epitome of what Beckham gives you.

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when you would have been better off drafting a RB or another WR who can give you a guaranteed 12-15 points per week with the occasional huge game but never a shit game.

His "bad" games are usually 5 catches for 70 yards and sometimes a TD!

I'd love to be in some of the leagues you're in if you are consistently winning, because the logic shown is this thread is astoundingly poor.

At that's ignoring the fact that you first said Beckham wasn't worth a first round pick that was dialed back to "not in the Top 5" even though he seems to be in your top 5.

Just a pretty bizarre take.

In comment 13485494 EricJ said:

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In comment 13485322 UConn4523 said: Quote: why aren't you factoring in less doubles/triples for coverage? Wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that Beckham should have a better opportunity to bust open weaker coverage more frequently? you are correct, but you also have to factor having to give Marshall the ball and Engram since he was our top pick, Vereen back, etc etc In the end we can agree that there is some uncertainty. I like to be as certain as possible if I am selecting in the top 5

I am factoring it in, I said as much in a previous post. When LeVeon Bell catches 75 balls and gets another 250+ carries it doesn't prevent Antonio Brown from catching 100 balls.

There is uncertainty with any player but the truly great players get the ball in the NFL.

Assuming the first four picks off the board are Bell, Zeke, David Johnson and Antonio Brown, who do you take over OBJ?

Who is more certain? In my opinion, nobody. And do not say Julio because he had some real duds last year and was pretty inconsistent.

with 4 catches or less (one was 1) and DNP another 2 games. Beckham had 4 games with 4 catches or less factoring in playing 2 more games than Jones.

I won't sour on anyone picking Jones over Beckham but I can't think of a reason why I would.

with a guy that always wins, but you've said nothing ground breaking and you are contradicting yourself left and right. You make a case for Julio, but your rationale makes no sense. I too would finish at the top of my league if I played FF with a bunch of 4th graders. Nice work.

and let me know if a spot opens up in your league....

can go before OBJ. Im not saying I agree with it, I'd take OBJ, but I think you can make the case. After that though, there is nobody in the conversation. So at worst, he's 6th. Eric wanted to give us all his expert advice and told us not to draft him before 9. Who are the 2 guys that could possibly go after Bell, Johnson, Elliot, Brown and Julio??

Personally, I currently have OBJ slotted between 4-6 which is probably where most people have him. Eric is saying lots of words, but at the end of the day he's just trying to show everyone what an expert he is. There is no substance to his words.

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Personally, I currently have OBJ slotted between 4-6 which is probably where most people have him. Eric is saying lots of words, but at the end of the day he's just trying to show everyone what an expert he is. There is no substance to his words.

And ironically, EricJ said a lot of words to pretty much tell us he's slotted Beckham between 4-6.

And that he's great at fantasy football.

In comment 13485560 Keith said:

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can go before OBJ. Im not saying I agree with it, I'd take OBJ, but I think you can make the case. After that though, there is nobody in the conversation. So at worst, he's 6th. Eric wanted to give us all his expert advice and told us not to draft him before 9. Who are the 2 guys that could possibly go after Bell, Johnson, Elliot, Brown and Julio?? Personally, I currently have OBJ slotted between 4-6 which is probably where most people have him. Eric is saying lots of words, but at the end of the day he's just trying to show everyone what an expert he is. There is no substance to his words.

Pretty much my point with OBJ. Personally I would take him over Julio just because Julio, despite having a great season overall last year, burned me in some crucial weeks with some major duds. But other than Julio, who can you argue over OBJ? Hard to have him ranked lower than 6 and could make a case for him being in the top 3-4.

In comment 13485312 EricJ said:

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In comment 13485297 Keith said: Quote: You first say that OBJ is too inconsistent which is the worst thing for a fantasy team and then say you would clearly take Julio over OBJ. Go look at Julios numbers and confirm that you are taking him over OBJ. It's not that clear cut. Julio had 10 games in which he had 0 TD's. He had 7 games over 100 yardes receiving and 8 games UNDER 70 yards. Why is he clearly the pick over OBJ?? My comment has nothing to do with OBJs past performance and more about the uncertainty of this offense moving forward. With the additional weapons will the ball be spread around more than in prior years? People are talking about feeding Marshall and now Engram and even Shepard, then Vereen with dump offs on third down and he was hurt last year. So, this really is not about OBJ. I am objectively looking at what this offense may do this year and to me it is unclear and since it is not clear THAT is why I drop OBJ down a bit. It is not a knock on him at all. Has nothing to do with his talent level or past performance. It is almost as if he has moved to a new team.

I think you are over thinking things. Guys like obj transcend systems. Guys like obj always put up numbers. And more often than not surrounding talent helps great players it doesn't hinder them, statistically.

There is no sound argument to support the belief that Beckham will disappoint this season in FF. He's as safe a pick as any.

Plax had his best season with Eli when toomer and shockey and tiki were playing well here. Nicks had a good season whe Cruz was going off here.

Good players perform. I love when owners pass or pick guys based on logic like yours.

And look at the players who "let down" following a great year 99% of the time that player let down because of his own short comings or the qb got hurt. Great players don't dive bomb because there weren't enough footballs to go around. It's a myth, especially in the passing era.

His qb was a mess.

Why did Braylon Edwards struggle after that two year stretch? Because he was overrated. Why did Brandon Marshall struggle last year with the jets? The qb and offense fell apart.

It's never due to too many weapons unless the qb sucks ass. Eli doesn't suck ass.

Pass on Beckham at your own peril. Odds are he produces once again because he's a great player with a known commodity at qb. Brandon Marshall will only help. For every ball that Marshall sucks away from Beckham he will get two more thrown his way because drives will last longer, thanks to Marshall and all those weapons.

Wayne chrebet won me a ft title one year as the second wr option in a run first jets offense. Why? He was a good player with a good qb.

Perhaps luck will favor me with a high pick this year. If it does I will gladly take him. I don't care whether it is the best value I can get with the pick. How many Giants will I ever be able to take with a top five pick? I will take my chances with OBJ because he is a Giant.