NFT: NHL Expansion thread

In comment 13498076 pjcas18 said:

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series, Fast is better than Lindberg. I'd much rather lose Lindberg.

I think Fast punched above his weight that series.

I like both, but I like Lindberg a bit more.

I'd rather lose Grabner.

In comment 13498076 pjcas18 said:

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series, Fast is better than Lindberg. I'd much rather lose Lindberg.

Lindberg has greater upside. Fast has probably hit his ceiling, as a great 4th liner, good 3rd liner, who has some extra value because he can play all 4 lines without making a fool of himself (though he doesnt produce points as top 6er). Lindberg has more upside and even now, at his best, is better than Fast. Fast is just much more consistent.

I rarely focused on either play during the season (Fast or Lindberg). Only really noticed in the playoffs and Fast had the better playoffs (Canadiens series specifically by far) - but as Brett pointed out, sometimes that happens and may not be the best indicator of a players overall game.

But they're both 25, and both turn 26 this year, in general I question how much upside either has.

they're not college players, they've both been pro quite a while and neither are big men who you could say take longer to develop.

not saying they can't improve aspects of their game and this is just my general opinion, but by 26 years old I stop using upside with hockey players and hope to salvage a career and get consistent ice time as a top 9 forward.

In comment 13497480 theold5j said:

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I think your cherry picking honestly. I mean reinhart busted. But before he busted they turned him into Matt Barzal and Anthony Beaivillier. Have you seen them play. You don't need Rose colored glasses to see how good they are. Now your admittedly not an islanders fan so indolent expect you to know that strome was the scapegoat for Capuano for 3 years. And on top of that played a lot out of position. Why didn't you mention nelson, dehaan, okposo, nielsen, Bailey, martin, cizekas,ee. They were all home grown players that have had positive careers. You may get islanders fans to say Bailey hasn't lived up. But he's coming off a 56 point season. Do you know who Josh HoSang is. Nino was a malcontent that didn't get along with management and they didn't stand for his bullshit. My point it every team has their guys and misses just like the islanders did.

You may be right. But I note that your evidence that Im wrong, first and foremost, is your faith in the NEXT generation of prospects. Beauvilier (9-15-24 is just ok), Barzal (2 gps), and Ho-Sang (21 GPs). I dont know, I think it's worth noting that top picks who should be the young core already were slow/not developing:

MDC, 2014-#5: As I said, 2 years post-draft in junior (where he didnt become more dominant) and then a 41 point AHL season is a bad 3 yers for high skill winger taken at #5.

Pulock, 2013-#15. Played one NHL game last season, 15 the year before, at age 22. Of the 6 players taken around him (3 picks +/-), everyone else has played 54 or more games, with 4 of 6 at 140+ games. Notably, not a top 5 pick and a D so you need to cut more slack.

Reinhart, 2012-#4: 37 games played, traded, elite pick, massive bust. And a reach, IIRC. Next 3 picks were Rielly, Lindholm, and Dumba. That another team bailed them out with a trade doesnt remotely undermine my point.

Strome, 2011-#5: not a bust but a stalled disappointment. Fewer games and points than picks 6-9, and my recollection is that Strome was supposed to be the last of the top group talent-wise, not in with Mika and Scheifele. I agree with you that the coach misused him. That supports my point... it doesnt undermine it. (What point do you think Im making?).

Niederreiter, 2010-#5: Whatever the reason, he didnt develop like the Isles wanted him to, and they shipped him out, where he has flourished. Supports my point.

There you have it. You first pick in 5 straight drafts after JT in 2009. All disappointing on one way or another, particularly the four picks that were #4 or #5 overall. If you dont see an issue in the scouting-development of those 5 I dont know what to tell you.

That other players have developed is a worthy point, but doesnt offset the failure at the top of 5 straight drafts. Lee in particular is a good development story, although I think he's inconsistent as so many PFs are. Bailey is an inconsistent player, mildly disappointing for a #9 pick but not a knock on the org I think. Lee and Bailey play with JT, no? If that's the case he's probably contributing to their success. You'll take Nelson's production from a late #1, but it's not a home run that offsets the top of the draft issues. Same with Cizikas -- mazel tov, you've got yourself a small, agitating bottom 6 center in the 4th round!. de Haan is probably less than you want from a #12 pick, though that wasnt an amazing draft late lottery and he's fine. Okposo was drafted 11 years ago and is not better than anyone drafted ahead of him save Brassard (who was very disappointing but has settled in nicely as a 2nd line center).

Again, you have 5 straight top picks, 4 with elite draft positions, who did not develop as you would expect. There is no counter story there of late #1s and lesser picks turning into stars. If right now, you had the player taken the player taken right after each of those 5 picks, Brett Connolly, Mika Zibanejad, Morgan Reilly, Nikita Zadorov, and Jake Virtanen, your team would be WAY better. Indeed, the only player there worse than the guy the Isles took is Connolly, who is worse than Nino but Nino developed after he was traded.

I think Lindberg's upside is that if he can get more consistent, he's a top 5 third line center. The sort of player who makes the third line a secret weapon. Smart game to him, but the sort of player who will really hit his stride (maybe) when he is a real vet with 4 season under his belt. But I've always been a fan of him -- he was one of those prospects I had irrational confidence in as he made his way thru the Swedish League and the AHL.

...but as one poster put it if we lose either our FO is incompetent.

just gut instinct his upside is higher than Fast, more versatile as well.

so it better not come to that. Only reason either should be lost is in exchange for a young D-man

So Valiquette was officially wrong on Lindberg's eligibility? He came out and said OL wasn't eligible for the draft - i'm surprised as Vally is usually so spot on.. but i haven't heard any momentum behind that opinion.

but Valiquette seems the only one of that position.

And not produced much. Lindberg has produced at a similar rate while playing almost exclusively on the fourth line. I think that, if he switched places with Fast, that he probably would produce more than Fast has.

They're both solid and I'd rather not see either one go. Gun to my head, though, I'd prefer Lindberg.

There were times during the final third of the regular season where he flashed some nice offense in addition to really responsible 2-way play at the pivot.

But I don't see how it could be classified a tremendous failure by the FO to lose one of the two. There are limited protection slots, and I'm not sure who I leave exposed in favor of either player. Perhaps you could argue that it's a worthwhile risk to protect Lindberg and expose Grabner, kind of calling LV's bluff and daring them to take an older player with only one year of control, but you could easily regret that in a big way.

Sure, optimal roster management might dictate a trade to minimize ED exposure, but it does take two to tango and the trade floodgates haven't exactly burst open as yet...who knows if or when they will.

could be traded as soon as Saturday. Word is he'd be scooped up in a second by Vegas.

MTL coaching staff taking major hits on Beaulieu. Comments like "Maybe if he had a coach like Phil Housley in NSH he'd have met the expectations people have for him"

JJ Daigneault is the current assistant coach in charge of the defense for MTL, and there is talk about replacing him with Larry Robinson. I couldn't imagine many better mentors/coaches for young defenseman. At 66 I can't see him as a head coach again. And with Sergachev and Juulsen on the cusp of their NHL careers I think make the change now.

Raanta, Fast, Lindberg, and Grabner. We dont have 4 trades in us before the draft to get them all out of here to avoid losing them for nothing. Moreover, if you trade all of those 3 forwards, you're decimating your bottom 6. Whatever you take back would either have to be real kids (0-2 years experience) or would itself need to be exposed.

So realistically, we're either exposing them and hoping that LV, by some miracle, takes Holden or KK. Or we are paying off LV to take someone like KK. I really expect a payoff. At least a #2 pick, on the grounds that Raanta would 100% return a #2 pick after the draft, probably more.

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Again, you have 5 straight top picks, 4 with elite draft positions, who did not develop as you would expect.

...it's silly to even have an opinion on Pulock or MDC at this point.

And if anything, Pulock has looked like he has the goods with every (limited) opportunity he's gotten.

The other 3 guys I'll give you... but one of them was dealt for Barzal who certainly seems to have a far better upside at this point.

Have an ED-related deal in place with LV, presumably to navigate their protection dilemma on the defensive end.

In comment 13498437 bigbluehoya said:

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Have an ED-related deal in place with LV, presumably to navigate their protection dilemma on the defensive end.

They're dying to get rid of Bieksa

In comment 13498437 bigbluehoya said:

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Have an ED-related deal in place with LV, presumably to navigate their protection dilemma on the defensive end.

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Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie 31m31 minutes ago It's believed ANA has a pre-arranged deal in place with VGK so it isn't necessary to ask Kevin Bieksa to waive his NMC.

I dont think you write things in stone on MDC at this point. Im not even suggesting what his outcome is.

But it's silly to have an opinion on him 3 years after drafting him? That's nonsense. You have to constantly evaluate your talent. 3 years is a lot of time. The 1-4 picks each have 2 full seasons of NHL time, at least. The #9 pick has 102 points. Shoot, you all traded Griffin Reinhart 3 years after drafting him.

MDC is at least behind a reasonable developmental timeline. It's hard to deny that. Could be a Drouin like situation where he comes on after early struggles. But it's insane to ignore it.

David Pagnotta‏
@TheFourthPeriod

So by sounds of things, Vegas has deals in place with Anaheim, Chicago and Columbus so far, related to the X-draft, with more coming.

In comment 13498599 Anakim said:

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David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod So by sounds of things, Vegas has deals in place with Anaheim, Chicago and Columbus so far, related to the X-draft, with more coming.

I read somewhere CHI involves Kruger. Maybe LV agrees to take him. I'll see if I can dig it up.

I hope the Canadiens can somehow convince LV to pick Plekanec (assuming they don't protect him). I like Plekanec for what he is but for the $$ the Canadiens can get that elsewhere. And Plekanec is a UFA after the season, but could provide some veteran leadership to LV.

In comment 13498606 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13498599 Anakim said: Quote: David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod So by sounds of things, Vegas has deals in place with Anaheim, Chicago and Columbus so far, related to the X-draft, with more coming. I read somewhere CHI involves Kruger. Maybe LV agrees to take him. I'll see if I can dig it up. I hope the Canadiens can somehow convince LV to pick Plekanec (assuming they don't protect him). I like Plekanec for what he is but for the $$ the Canadiens can get that elsewhere. And Plekanec is a UFA after the season, but could provide some veteran leadership to LV.

I think it was Kruger and Van Riemsdyk to Vegas

in rounds 1-2 over the next two drafts. Book it. Then the owners are going to complain, forgetting that the reason these XD rules were put in place was because people thought in retrospect that the last XD didnt do enough to help, and that you needed better XD rules to entice a higher expansion fee.

something like that, where LV agrees to accept Kruger in a trade if CHI doesn't protect TVR or vice versa, they select Kruger and accept TVR in a trade.

there has to be a staff of 5 people keeping track of all this for LV with these pre-arrangements. I can see them trading some of the players or picks they pre-arrange to get. It could get complicated.

Cups with their respective stars.

The Islanders have had the picks to give Tavares elite talent and plenty of opportunity to trade for some (Kessel, Hall). Josh Ho-Sang isn't enough to keep him around for the next decade, IMO.

The Rangers have also had the opportunity to build an elite defense around Lundqvist and put the team up there with PIT/WAS. And they messed up.

Rangers took their shots. Many of them made sense. The defense was elite for a moment, and then the wheels really fell off the bus. Ultimately it wasnt enough. But they made a SCF and two ECFs. 6 straight years of winning at least a round, 2015-16 where they got knocked out by the eventual cup winner in round 1. That's pretty successful.

Now, they had a run where every decision they made on D blew up in their face. Staal and DG resigned, Stralman allowed to leave, Boyle signed, Yandle traded for and then misused. And I'd argue they squandered the early run of Hank's dominance by having a team that was not skilled enough to win 4 rounds.

Most of us saw it coming. Keeping both Girardi and Staal long term and allowing Stralman to leave were glaring errors that we talked about at the time as being big mistakes.

in that if you are a legit contender (or should be) and don't win a cup you lose and you're a failure. There is no silver lining or other acceptable accomplishment.

sure there is progress that you can view as a positive from year to year, and it's different if you're rebuilding or building, but ultimately the goal is to win a cup and whether all your prospects tank or they all provide you solid top 9/6 minutes if you don't win a cup you're a failure. The fall guy for the failures varies too based on if your issues are perceived as talent or effort/usage but either way, organizationally you don't win you fail.

and I think most teams view it that way too.

Now where exactly that cutoff is between rebuilding and contender is subjective.

Someone like Edmonton for example took way too long to rebuild and it cost their FO and coach their jobs.

Chiarelli stepped in shit with McDavid being there for the taking first overall, but that's how it works sometimes. Right place, right time.

but someone like OTT this past year outperformed their expectations, so are they or should they be considered contenders in 2017-2018? I don't know the answer.

"total failure". I agree that it's cup or bust, and so if you didnt win a cup you failed. But "total failure" has a whiff of stank on it. Rangers havent won a cup and the window is closing fast on Hank, but there is much to be proud of.

In comment 13498718 Deej said:

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"total failure". I agree that it's cup or bust, and so if you didnt win a cup you failed. But "total failure" has a whiff of stank on it. Rangers havent won a cup and the window is closing fast on Hank, but there is much to be proud of.

fair enough, I won't speak for Brett, but I guess there are different levels of failure.

In comment 13496766 Greg from LI said:

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...#18, Marc Staal!"

LOL

In comment 13496766 Greg from LI said:

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...#18, Marc Staal!"

Oops.. Was thinking about Jarret Stoll

In comment 13498776 Vin R said:

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In comment 13496766 Greg from LI said: Quote: ...#18, Marc Staal!" Oops.. Was thinking about Jarret Stoll

Drinky drinky, Erin

Goalie in the league for over a decade. Not to win one with a gift like Lundqvist is an embarrassment.

The Rangers have made one more ECF than the Senators since Lundqvist joined them. Not getting it done with him once would be a travesty.

Why? We gave him the worst roster I've ever seen. Rangers havent had picks in years, yet we have a bunch of good young players at the NHL level. Tells me that there was nothing left in the AHL, which is confirmed by just a glance at the roster.

It's funny, I praise the Rangers development success all the time. But how much of that is driven by the AHL club? Stepan, Vesey, Buch, and Hayes (and Hags) never played there. Skjei put in a season there. Zucc insanely played two half seasons there. Lots of guys with like 40 games there, McD, Kreider make me skeptical that the AHL did much. I thought Fast was there longer than ~60 games. Lindberg did 150 games there. Hrivik I think would make the top 12 on 20 or more teams from what I saw.

Also pj, forgot to flag something on Lindberg: he had hip surgery in May, was out 6 months (ie into the start of this past season), and I dont think he was ever 100%. Hopefully an offseason of rest/strength building pops his game another notch.

would be a big cost savings for NY.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 13498898 Deej said:

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Why? We gave him the worst roster I've ever seen. Rangers havent had picks in years, yet we have a bunch of good young players at the NHL level. Tells me that there was nothing left in the AHL, which is confirmed by just a glance at the roster. It's funny, I praise the Rangers development success all the time. But how much of that is driven by the AHL club? Stepan, Vesey, Buch, and Hayes (and Hags) never played there. Skjei put in a season there. Zucc insanely played two half seasons there. Lots of guys with like 40 games there, McD, Kreider make me skeptical that the AHL did much. I thought Fast was there longer than ~60 games. Lindberg did 150 games there. Hrivik I think would make the top 12 on 20 or more teams from what I saw. Also pj, forgot to flag something on Lindberg: he had hip surgery in May, was out 6 months (ie into the start of this past season), and I dont think he was ever 100%. Hopefully an offseason of rest/strength building pops his game another notch.

100% admit you guys know Rangers prospects better than me, it seems nearly unanimous that among Rangers fans Lindberg is the preference over Fast. So I'm sure I'm wrong.

My admitted only significant exposure to either was the Canadiens series this year. I thought both looked like 3rd/4th liners on the Rangers which maybe could be bumped up a line on another team without their forward depth.

Fast had the better series, especially goal scoring. He had the backbreaking short-handed goal in game 5 - which in all likelihood decided the series.

they're 4th liners in NY, but each get bumped up as needed. On a less deep team I think Fast would be a fine 3rd line wing and Lindberg would be a fine 3rd line center now with the upside to be a difference making 3C. The sort of guy who they flag as a secret weapon/luxury type during national broadcasts. Upside, not there yet.

Fast is so interesting. Entered the organization as a speedy, light skill wing prospect. Develops into an ultra consistent defensive forward with deceptive heaviness to his game. And oddly he's fine playing either wing, on any line. Not ideal but it lets AV have a lot of flexibility when someone is out--he can move Fast from the bottom to the top, switching wings, and leave the 2nd and 3rd lines in tact.

being more valuable than the wing position.

I think Lindberg definitely has more all around upside, but Fast is playing Selke level defensive hockey (not that he'd win a Selke as long as his offense is lacking)..

It would suck to lose either for nothing.

would give up on Galchenyuk. He had 6 OT goals this year. the talent is not questioned.

They fire Therrien and bring in his fraternal twin, Julien, and wonder why Galchenyuk hasn't changed?

He had 30 goals as a 22 year old and a significant knee injury this year.

He's 23 years old, and has had over 25 point every year of his 5 year career, and over 40 the past three, including this year when he missed 20 games.

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BrianWilde‏ @BWildeCTV BrianWilde Retweeted BrianWilde The winds are swirling that Galchenyuk and/or Beaulieu will be dealt angling to get a centre in return. #OnVerra

which I believe is a stupid way to spell "center"

Canadian's pretty much invented trentese...

In comment 13499139 Davisian said:

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Canadian's pretty much invented trentese...

I hope that you've been mentally bracing for Shattenkirk. It sounds like it's gonna happen

The good news is that means they dropped another bad contract on D.

Bad news is new shiny not playing to its paygrade..

In comment 13499191 Davisian said:

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The good news is that means they dropped another bad contract on D. Bad news is new shiny not playing to its paygrade..

Supposedly they would get him at a "hometown discount". No idea what that would look like, but if it's south of 6 million, I'd dig it. On the other hand, the Devils have all the cap room in the world and can essentially write him a blank check (and he'd still be able to go home).

They'd still need to shed one of Girardi or Staal and it means no shot to keep Smith..

Just hoping Gorton makes some fuckin smart decisions..

this draft described as historically weak.

I view the NHL draft as a crapshoot anyway. A pick int he 21 - 25 range (where the Canadiens pick) has a less than 33% chance of playing in 100 NHL games.

that's the 1st round.

In comment 13498104 Stu11 said:

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Yea The Devils will have a very intriguing off season. Starting with this week and the possibility of taking on a player that teams don't want to expose and lose for nothing, Then next week with the draft there is talk they may trade down from #1 to pick a Dman they like. Also there is the Kovy situation which will possibly serve as found money if they can get a solid return for him. Then of course UFA with all the money they have to spend. With the savvy Shero has shown in piling up draft picks and finding some diamonds in the rough I'm excited to see what he does.

I do not want the Devils to trade down in the draft unless they receive a substantial return which they won't because there is no McDavid in this draft. As for Kovy I hope that he decides to return to the NHL and the Devils can get a 1st round pick for him even if it is in next years draft I would be thrilled to get something for him at this point. I have a feeling that he will decide to go back to the KHL for one more year then come over next year when he is free to sign with any team. Shero has done a good job so far and I am hoping that he keeps the #1 pick and takes either Nolan or Hischier and they play well this year. With one of them, plus Hall, Palmieri, and Henrique the Devils might be able to lure a star like Taveras to NJ especially if any of the young kids Zacha, McLeod, Bastain, and/or Quenneville live up to their potential.

In comment 13499393 Jay on the Island said:

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In comment 13498104 Stu11 said: Quote: Yea The Devils will have a very intriguing off season. Starting with this week and the possibility of taking on a player that teams don't want to expose and lose for nothing, Then next week with the draft there is talk they may trade down from #1 to pick a Dman they like. Also there is the Kovy situation which will possibly serve as found money if they can get a solid return for him. Then of course UFA with all the money they have to spend. With the savvy Shero has shown in piling up draft picks and finding some diamonds in the rough I'm excited to see what he does. I do not want the Devils to trade down in the draft unless they receive a substantial return which they won't because there is no McDavid in this draft. As for Kovy I hope that he decides to return to the NHL and the Devils can get a 1st round pick for him even if it is in next years draft I would be thrilled to get something for him at this point. I have a feeling that he will decide to go back to the KHL for one more year then come over next year when he is free to sign with any team. Shero has done a good job so far and I am hoping that he keeps the #1 pick and takes either Nolan or Hischier and they play well this year. With one of them, plus Hall, Palmieri, and Henrique the Devils might be able to lure a star like Taveras to NJ especially if any of the young kids Zacha, McLeod, Bastain, and/or Quenneville live up to their potential.

Jay.. that's a high hope!!

At this point, Kovy is a 20 goal scorer and that's it.. 1st round pick would be beyond shocking!!

In comment 13499333 pjcas18 said:

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this draft described as historically weak. I view the NHL draft as a crapshoot anyway. A pick int he 21 - 25 range (where the Canadiens pick) has a less than 33% chance of playing in 100 NHL games. that's the 1st round.

From Redline Report/USA Today

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And it gets worse, because not only is there not a lot of marquee value at the top end, in Red Line�s estimation, the depth of this year�s crop is lacking too. We look at the guys in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in our rankings and think that while they all have some traits we like, there are going to be a lot of second-round picks this year who will not go on to have stellar NHL careers. Perhaps just some food for thought for Las Vegas� management team when the 30 other NHL general managers offer up their second-round picks in exchange for staying away from a particular player in the expansion draft. Mental note: Make sure the picks they�re offering are for 2018.

I still assume that any team that is good at drafting can mine players. Hoping the Rangers land a RHD with puck moving skills.