I keep reading about a regression to the mean. They can't do what they did last year again. BS. This defense is going to be top 3...again. The only thing that can stop that is injuries.
We have an elite run stopping dline. Snacks may be the best run stopping DT. JPP and Vernon are probably the best 2-way DE duo's in the league. Both are exceptional run stoppers. To me, the best judge of a defenses run stopping ability is YPC. The Giants were tied for 2nd giving up only 3.6 YPC. A good half a yard below the median.
We have an upper echelon secondary who is young and improving. Landon Collins blew up. Janoris Jenkins, IMO, was a top 3 NFL CB. Throw in the fact that Eli Apple should improve and DRC is our 3rd CB and I find it hard to believe there are many teams with more talent in the secondary. The Giants were #2 in Completion % at 58.3%. The Median was about 68%. We should improve with Eli Apple progressing and any improvements in the FS position. Teams threw against the Giants a lot last year because they couldn't run and they found the same failures. Teams did not have a lot of success scoring by throwing the ball. Our defense saw a ton of passes against them and they were up to the challenge by leading in a lot of the passing categories.
It took the defense a few weeks to start to gel, but we got better as the season went on. We now come into 2017 with some consistency in personnel and coaching. I expect this defense to pick up where we left off. The only real loss was Hankins and I believe we should be able to fill that role fairly easily. At the LB position, we have some youth with some room to grow. Not a strength, but shouldn't be a weakness either.
Expect an elite defense this season....book it.
The only concerns I have are pass rush depth behind JPP and OV and if our run stuffing DT's generate push from the interior in passing situations.
Fair points and I agree. What teams are 4 deep at CB anyway? I think our ability to rush the passer with the front 4 is solid. Not elite, but very solid. Definitely not a weakness, IMO.
We may not be elite, but we will have a defensive unit that will be impactful and lead this team. And that's good enough for me.
Whether they "regress" or improve, I absolutely expect a top 5 unit at minimum and see no reason why this can't be top 3.
Like I said last night - the fact that we leaned so heavily on the defense last year makes it hard to believe it was a fluke or somehow not legit.
If we had a great offense last year, then you could make the argument that we made teams one-dimensional often and made the defense's life easy. But we actually did the opposite. We rode our defense almost all year long and leaned heavily on them. It was a legit unit and can certainly get better with continuity and guys like Apple continuing to improve.
If we've instituted things that actually caused much fewer injuries last year and that will hold, that's at least as big a deal as any FA signing.
This defense thrived last season with OV playing with a shattered hand and JPP out for some time, and overall probably too many snaps for both.
If we can keep those two healthy, add Goodson in the middle, re-introduce Thompson to the safety rotation with Adams and perhaps build on our depth at CB with Apple entering his 2nd year?
Watch out.
2) I think the Goodson over Sheppard upgrade is going to be huge. Sheppard was a vet, but was not close to a playmaker. This will help the run defense even more.
3) I am hoping that Avery Moss can be the answer as the pass rushing specialist. Depth is a concern at the DE spot, and I am hoping that either Moss, or a step up from Okwara will help.
4) Merritt said that Collins can reach even another gear. He was playing at about an 7 level for him. Merritt said he can get to a 9. This is year 3 in this system, and if DT can stay healthy next to him to play the center field FS position, look out.
The offense is what I'm excited to see
We also know that JPP and OV are going to start, but they can't possibly be expected to play the same number of defensive snaps this year as they did last year (95% and 93%, respectively), so, as with the DTs, I want to see how the DE rotation shakes out in camp.
The Giants seem to be counting on B.J. Goodson to make the leap from barely-used rookie to starting MIKE in his second year. If he makes that leap successfully, and shows that he can play in sub-packages, too...that he's not a liability in coverage...it will go a long way in establishing the defense as "elite."
The secondary has to stay relatively healthy, and I'm a little troubled by some of the "nicks" and "soreness" and "illnesses" suffered this spring. However, I think that our pass-rush will be much improved, and should make up for any deficiencies in the defensive backfield, at least in part.
What our defense now has, in addition to all the talent which doesn't need to be rattled off, is an identity and a culture. It's a smash mouth defense that denies the run and attacks on the edges using anyone at any time. It was as close to a Jim Johnson defense as I've seen and that was the original plan when Spags was brought in the first time. He has a lot of tools to work with and he will use them once the basics are solid and those now appear to be.
Losing Hankins won't be an issue, and adding Moss and Devin Taylor gives us two more rangy depth options at DE which we needed badly. Okwara should keep developing so now you have 5 DEs if Moss pans out, that can rotate in and also play inside on passing downs. The Giants like Robert Thomas enough to keep him around it looks like Tomlinson should step in and not really miss a beat until he's ready to start which may not be day 1.
The achilles heel is injuries as noted by Klaatu, you have a dinged up Apple and Darian Thompson, and almost always dinged DRC. Another CB we can count on who isn't 5-9 would be a boost to this talented but fragile group but with the speed we have at LB and the All Pro at SS, your CBs will have help all over the field.
Scoring on this bunch won't be easy, and I think the GB collapse is still going to push these guys to prove the season wasn't a fluke. There are pro bowl caliber players at every slot save for LB but even there, Casillas and Keenan Robinson did excellent work when called upon. This is a defense that has chemistry and want to and unquestioned leadership on all 3 levels. I'm cautiously optimistic that this defense actually takes a step forward this year after all being in the system for a season and adding more good depth up front.
So, yeah, absolutely essential we get another CB not named Wade who can play. DRC is a year older. We hope Apple takes strides. The S position, outside of LC, still very much up in the air, imo. Darian Thompson's history suggests that to rely on him as the season-long answer at FS is a high risk proposition, Adams was just serviceable, and the rest of the depth chart is mainly ??
We saw the drop-off when JPP went down: hopefully (underscored) Thomas and Moss give us real options in addition to Okwara. Did someone above really include OO in the conversation? It's not only bouncing back from his "troubles", lest we forget he could not stay on the field healthy.
And at MLB, yeah, hopefully Goodson is the goods. But look at the guys behind him, Grant? Munson?
Bottom line is that a lot has to go very right and stay very right before it can be posited that the d will be what it was in the second half of the season. In the NFL, that's a lot to ask. And, yes, the same is true for every team. But each season is different.
I'll be the nerd that points out that regression to the mean applies only to RANDOM occurrences.
For example you got on a streak with coin flips (or dice) and think you want to continue betting on heads, the rule applies; cash in now.
But if the occurrence has a CAUSE, like the team had a more talented group of players than the average team, the principle does not apply.
Now get off my lawn.
This defense thrived last season with OV playing with a shattered hand and JPP out for some time, and overall probably too many snaps for both.
If we can keep those two healthy, add Goodson in the middle, re-introduce Thompson to the safety rotation with Adams and perhaps build on our depth at CB with Apple entering his 2nd year?
Watch out.
Don't forget D.Taylor I think he moves ahead of O.O and possibly Okwara ...that is going to be a really good competition for the 3rd and 4th DE position
That's typically the outcome when you insist on sticking with your own contrarian viewpoints no matter what. Keep bringing that "fire" Terps.
For example you got on a streak with coin flips (or dice) and think you want to continue betting on heads, the rule applies; cash in now.
But if the occurrence has a CAUSE, like the team had a more talented group of players than the average team, the principle does not apply.
It is almost like a handful of people have adopted regression to the mean as a tagline but almost always incorrectly state where it is applicable.
I keep seeing it used on Yankee threads as well.
You have to like what we have to offer this season.
We still don't know if D. Thompson can play the position, without getting injured again.....that leaves Adams and what?
As mentioned, somewhere along the line DRC will get dinged....Apple has to stay away from hammys......even Jenkins missed some time back there....we need depth at corner and FS....our LBer's are what they are....lot of good things being said about Goodson, but until he goes out there and shows it, we just don't know......Tomlinson is a rookie, and yet he is just going to replace Hankins? There is going to be some growing pains at that position....
On paper we look strong.....we avoided injuries, for the most part last year....we have to do it again....
Quote:
I'll be the nerd that points out that regression to the mean applies only to RANDOM occurrences.
For example you got on a streak with coin flips (or dice) and think you want to continue betting on heads, the rule applies; cash in now.
But if the occurrence has a CAUSE, like the team had a more talented group of players than the average team, the principle does not apply.
It is almost like a handful of people have adopted regression to the mean as a tagline but almost always incorrectly state where it is applicable.
I keep seeing it used on Yankee threads as well.
At least in baseball there actually is a practical application. There's an element of randomness and luck in the individual outcomes (i.e., a batter's BABIP being dramatically high or low relative to league average or their own historical numbers) that will tend to regress to the mean.
That said, regression to the mean is also often misused even in the same context by some who don't understand the gambler's fallacy - they think a hot batter is MORE likely to make an out or go on a cold streak to balance out the numbers.
Are the Giants likely to regress on D next season? In the sense that of 32 outcomes in scoring defense rank, there are 30 outcomes that represent a decrease and only 1 outcome that represents an improvement. But to your point, FMiC, this is not rolling a 32-sided die. This is an outcome based on skill and performance.
Another reason could be that the changes made on defense could turn out to be more than insignificant. I've heard a lot of people stating that all we lost was Hankins. That's an oversimplification of the changes. One major concern I have is that it appears Goodson may be our mike, the guy calling the plays. Having a completely inexperienced on field play-caller could result in the defense taking some hits early on. That's not unreasonable to expect. Also, in the secondary it is the FS job to make adjustments to the coverage as necessary, and it is quite possible that we will end up with someone different/new in that position with those assignments.
I'm quite certain that the defense will please the fans and will ultimately be considered a strength of the team again, but I'm not convinced that we'll have the kind of unit that fans of other teams are forced to admit is elite.
And of course, the injury card is the major trump card in all of these conversations. We know how important certain players are to this defense (not gonna name them for my own dumb superstitious reasons), but injuries to key players would certainly do much to make this defense more pedestrian than they looked in the latter half of last season.
This difference to me is minor, but was an interesting exercise for me as I consider factors that could influence defensive outcomes.
a lot of teams would kill for that level of talent. queue the usual suspects crying about depth.
no one has depth in the NFL. there are certain players that are irreplaceable - it's what makes them elite. the giants have several on defense.
* it's a good thing
You're ignoring history. The giants defense WILL regress in 2017. It's a certainty. And fuck you and your Pollyanna bullshit. It makes me sick.
This is the biggest key to me. Our defense was hurt by our offense more than virtually any offense on a competing team in memory. Even the 02 Bucs and '00 Ravens had some semblance of running game to chew up some time for the D to rest and punt the ball to get field position. Our offense many times was jogging off the field before the defense was finished their first cup of water.
If our offense can just hang on to the ball and maybe score an extra TD a game, our defense will be carnivorous. We will get more turnovers. We will get more sacks. We will terrify the best quarterbacks.
This and health are the keys to me.
He has been on 2 Super Bowl teams, and is truly a coach on the field for the young guys too. A motivating teammate and extremely important to the chemistry of the team.
He is a very important piece of the secondary, but not for the reasons you've listed - and that's what I don't get.
Just say DRC is a key player. No need to do like you do with guys like Pinkins (who supposedly disrupts the offense in practice), or Bisnawaty (who is a beast in OTA's). Just stop with the fucking hyperbole or flat out incorrect descriptions.
He has been on 2 Super Bowl teams, and is truly a coach on the field for the young guys too. A motivating teammate and extremely important to the chemistry of the team.
Actually, no, he's not. Jenkins is the best CB in this secondary right now.
DRC is an excellent player but most of your post is nonsense. He's not a "team spokesman" - I don't know where you even come up with this shit.
You ask where did I get this information about DRC?
Madison Square Garden Channel 63 on 6/27/2017 just aired an Interview with Dominic Cromartie @ training camp.
The interview documented his discipline in private film study of his opponents, His commitment to weight lifting, and how important it is to be a positive role model. When he got to the Giants he selected #21.
He sacrificed the number "free of charge" to allow Landon Collins to wear it.
Encouraging isolation videos of his conversations with young players, Landon Collins, Eli Apple, Janoris Jenkins.
He even made a conversation about a choice of cleats with Odell Beckham. DRC is a leader
Statistically DRC had 6 interceptions, compared to Jenkins
Jenoris Jenkins is the best, however he is on the rise.
My comment was DRC is still the best
His only knock is he cant play forever because of his age at only 31.
By the way how old are you Arc? Did you learn anything?
Does everyone have to speak like an Arc?
Does his disrupt the offense in practice, too?
The guy is so awesome, you don't even know his fucking name. Chew on that for a bit.
My comment was DRC is still the best
I'm not going to berate you for your shitty English because it's obviously not your primary language.
What I am going to to is tell you that most of the points you pull out of your ass are complete nonsense.
DRC is a leader because he spoke with Odell Beckham about cleats?
Please don't tell me I'm the one who's not making sense here.
I mentioned statistically he had 6 interceptions, and as for his character he is a stand-up guy. He did not except money to allow Collins to wear #21. He is a leader and still the best CB on the team until further notice. He does have guys coming up like Collins and Jenkins but he is still the champ.
Can you discuss the topic? It this my thread now ?
Giants are going to have an elite defense this year REMEMBER? Hater?
Let's discuss the topic.
DRC is not the best CB on this team. Janoris Jenkins is. Anyone who understands football even slightly and watched the Giants last year would know this. Jenkins was the guy who matched up with opposing #1's all year long. Not Rodgers-Cromartie.
Also, Collins is not a CB.
If you want to talk about football, have some semblance of a clue as to what you're talking about.
Using DRC discussing fucking cleats with Beckham as an example of leadership is.. I don't even know what to call it.
Lets say, I agree that Jenkins is the next Superstar.
DRC was statistically successful and he is a leader ok
You ok now?
So what do you feel the defense will improve on?
What languages do you speak beside Cyber Keyboard Stalking?
I assume you also have the job of being enthusiastic, and an optimist.
Can you just talk about football?
Personally, I have never heard of you.
Yea odds are they finish lower than 2nd overall but that doesn't mean they can't be dominant.
There are reasons to be optimistic about the '17 unit:
Thompson should be back, which is an upgrade at FS.
The only notable loss was Hankins, and he was replaced by Tomlinson -- who could be just as good if not better than Hankins.
Jenkins and DRC missed time last year. JPP missed the last quarter of the season. While the unit was pretty healthy overall, some impact players missed time. While most tend to be pessimistic re: injuries, the optimist in me says the injury situation in '17 could be better.
The entire defense is either young or in their prime. There's no reason to think a production drop off is on the horizon due to age.
Good defenses don't suddenly become bad unless there's a rash of injuries or age comes into play. There's no reason why this defense can't sustain an elite level defense for the next 3-4 years.
How do you know we don't? How do you know one of the young guys doesn't step up? Look what Collins did in year 2.
What are you thanking him for? He didn't confirm your ridiculous hot take about DRC (who is not as good as Jenkins, nor is he as good a leader as you think).
How do you decide whether to post as Denny or River instead of EM32?
In addition, for all that we're returning almost all of our starters from last year, there are still a number of positions yet to be determined, most of which I touched upon in my earlier post. I would add that that's not necessarily a bad thing. Drafting guys like Tomlinson and Moss, signing UDFAs like Johnson and Munson, along with signing UFAs like Taylor could pay big dividends when it comes to strengthening our bench. At the very least, it makes the competition for spots this summer much stiffer than it has been in recent years.
We also have a bunch of second-year players like Goodson, Hunter, and Okwara who need to show some improvement from their rookie years (Goodson, in particular, needs to make a Landon Collins-type leap). Add to that a whole boatload of guys in contract years and I figure we'll see some epic battles to make the final 53 in camp.
However, as I wrote earlier, I do worry about injuries, although I think that upgrades on the bench will go a long way to mitigating any losses to key players...as long as we can once again avoid the "cluster" of injuries that have plagued us in the past.
And as I also wrote, I want to see who steps up in Hankins' absence. I want to see if Goodson can make the leap from barely-used rookie to starting MIKE (and even to three-down LB, which would be awesome). I want to see who locks down the #3 and #4 DEs, since that rotation has always been a big part of Spagnuolo's defenses, and also who (and how) we rotate our interior pass-rushers.
I'm optimistic, but it's a cautious optimism.
Even if we have a lesser player in Hankins spot, I don't envision it hurting the defense too much. We have + players at almost every single position, especially on the DL.
Other than injuries, I don't see how this team will not be one of the elite defenses. Teams cannot run on us and our secondary is in the upper echelon. With Snacks, JPP and Vernon, that isn't going to change. We are going to stop the run this year. I'd like to see us get to the QB more, but it's not a weakness and we have the players to do that.
I truly believe that this defense is going to be better than last year. It took some time to click last year, but we gained our identity and we got better as the season went on. We have continuity in coaching and personnel and we have young players still progressing. We don't have old players who should regress either. This defense still has something to prove.
I think the Giants showed some confidence in Goodson by not re-signing Sheppard, and I like the fact that B.J. is getting "coached up" by AP, and also that the Giants had him in on sub-packages in the spring. As I said earlier, if he's ready for "prime-time," that will go a long way to making this defense truly elite.
some "IFs", but if Goodson/Thompson/Tomlinson develop, they could very well be the best defense in football. *Jadar Johnson is at the top of my preseason watchlist - I think he makes the team and earns significant snaps in nickle/dime packages.
if not, they will still be one of the best. JPP, OV, Snacks, DRC, JJ, Apple, Collins, Kenard - there's a lot to be excited about on this defense.
Also, the upgrades at TE/WR + Perkins taking over should lead to a more efficient offense rather than the TD or 3-and-out offense from last year. Sustaining drives = clock moving, defense rested.
This season can't come soon enough. That talent on defense, Odell, Shepard, Marshall, Ellison [will be a fan favorite soon enough], Engram, Perkins ... this team is absolutely loaded. Pugh/Richburg healthy will also make a huge difference, in addition to Ellison's blocking ability.
Week 1's blowout of 'Mericas team should get the hype train rolling ...
man coverage ... release the Collins!
* I think the DE depth will pay huge dividends / keep OV/JPP fresh.
the only notable loss was hankins and in my view indy paid WAY TOO MUCH he is good but not great and they paid him great money had hankins been more of an interior pressure guy he may have been worth that contract but as a solid run DT im glad the giants didnt blow the cap to keep him tomlinson was the heart of a very good bama defence and i expect he slots in to hankins old spot without much problems
i actually like the LB group they have good blend of youth and experience if goodson can crack the starting lineup with kennard,robinson and the over achieving casillas this unit may be the most under appreciated group in the league with the power in front and behind it this group only needs to mop up
yes we would like a harry carson,peppers or even an LT but everyone in the league is looking for the next LT but with the team hard up against the cap after bringing in snacks,jenkins,drc,robinson etc there just may not be the cap space for much better at LB
unless they draft and develop one themselves and those guys worth the pick have all gone too high for the giants to be able to do that the last few years as college LB are in decline for the these edge rusher/DE tweener types that now fill the college game, or come out flawed with serious injuries that make them too risky to pick in the first round
this team will live and die on the OL and their ability to run the ball if they can run the ball better and control the clock better than they have that will make this defence even better as they will be fresher and better ready to make a play that could be the biggest upgrade they could make this season if they can fix that flaw on offence
I think Goodson is the wildcard ... i actually really like this LB corp's potential.
If Apple makes a Collins-esque progression, teams won't even be able to move the ball. I already like what I've seen from Apple - he's legit.
it should be obvious to Giant fans that Reese doesn't feel that LBers are all that important to the defense..
I think Goodson is the wildcard ... i actually really like this LB corp's potential.
If Apple makes a Collins-esque progression, teams won't even be able to move the ball. I already like what I've seen from Apple - he's legit.
They wouldn't have cut Shepard unless they thought they had better on hand.
Eli A. should make a dramatic leap...I've never even imagined three cornerbacks this good, much less seen it.
Kennard & Robinson played a full year and should be better.
Vernon and JPP (see above).
No matter who plays there F.S should be better.
There were a lot of new faces last year, the continuity and the implementation of more advanced schemes (Spags has talked about this) HAS to make them better.
I defy any defense to come up with as many all pro bowl types....Collins and Snacks..the very best in football.....Vernon and JPP...as a duo run stopping and pass rushing..arguably the best in football...Rogers C., Jackrabbit Jenkins and Eli....aruably the best threesome in football... That's 7 of 11 players who arguably could/should go to the pro ball.
Kennard, Robinson, D. Thompson ...should fall in the category of very good.
We had little depth at the Defensive end last year...the kid from Notre Dame should almost certainly step up this year, and I'm hopeful Moss can be a situational player..so I see improvement at DE depth too.
One Caveat...Hankins. Maybe he was not great, but he gave us a matchup advantage against Dallas. We were effectively playing two nose guards..not so great against a passing team but key against Dallas.
So, in some ways, Tomlinson is important...or at least potentially the difference between an all time defence and a berry berry (sic) good defence.
Fun times guys...
The qualifier is that I think Dallas has great potential too and that Philly is being overlooked. I even think Washington can surprise.
I think there's only one or two times since 1954 (when I became a Giant fan) that I've looked forward to a season like this. I see a very good chance for a third superbowl and a throat gag for all the Eli detractors. Ohhh that would be sweet.
They wouldn't have cut Shepard unless they thought they had better on hand.
Eli A. should make a dramatic leap...I've never even imagined three cornerbacks this good, much less seen it.
Kennard & Robinson played a full year and should be better.
Vernon and JPP (see above).
No matter who plays there F.S should be better.
There were a lot of new faces last year, the continuity and the implementation of more advanced schemes (Spags has talked about this) HAS to make them better.
I defy any defense to come up with as many all pro bowl types....Collins and Snacks..the very best in football.....Vernon and JPP...as a duo run stopping and pass rushing..arguably the best in football...Rogers C., Jackrabbit Jenkins and Eli....aruably the best threesome in football... That's 7 of 11 players who arguably could/should go to the pro ball.
Kennard, Robinson, D. Thompson ...should fall in the category of very good.
We had little depth at the Defensive end last year...the kid from Notre Dame should almost certainly step up this year, and I'm hopeful Moss can be a situational player..so I see improvement at DE depth too.
One Caveat...Hankins. Maybe he was not great, but he gave us a matchup advantage against Dallas. We were effectively playing two nose guards..not so great against a passing team but key against Dallas.
So, in some ways, Tomlinson is important...or at least potentially the difference between an all time defence and a berry berry (sic) good defence.
Fun times guys...
The qualifier is that I think Dallas has great potential too and that Philly is being overlooked. I even think Washington can surprise.
I think there's only one or two times since 1954 (when I became a Giant fan) that I've looked forward to a season like this. I see a very good chance for a third superbowl and a throat gag for all the Eli detractors. Ohhh that would be sweet.
I think DT Tomlinson is coming to the NFL "ready" to play. He is a 5th year guy, Alabama bread, and strong as hell. He just needs to be stout against the run to start and develop as the year goes. Plus there will likely be more rotation this year.
Only injuries can unhinge this team (or any team....) so lets see how things go. If in fact Goodson, Apple, D. Thompson, Adams and Okwara really step up we have a deep and strong defense for sure. Go Giants
If RB Elliott is suspended, it gets a little easier. But health from today to opening day can change in a second for either team.
The Giants chose not to chase Hankins for a reason. I think as the year goes on, rookie DT Tomlinson of the ALABAMA pedigree will earn more playing time. But opening day we'll likely see a rotation of DT's. Dallas will attack here for sure.