Will TE Engram be able to impact the Giants as a Rookie?

w/ a bunch of Ole Miss alumns. Want me to go ask him? ;-)

and is flanked by OBJ and BM..Of course he'll have an impact, if he's all they say he is out of College

how bout that?

there is very little evidence to support the idea that a rookie TE can make an impact in the NFL

Actually, it might have been his best year. Not a lock, but certainly possible.

in three years he could develop into a solid role player. Whoops my bad - I was thinking about the Knicks first round pick.

Engram will start and will have a huge impact on Giants offense. Really looking forward to watching this kid make plays.

In comment 13521043 gidiefor said:

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there is very little evidence to support the idea that a rookie TE can make an impact in the NFL

Shockey, Jimmy Graham, Kellen Winslow, Jr., pre-injury, Jets' Johnny Mitchell, Jason Witten, Gates, tons more, imv

At very least they are gonna have to honor his speed when he is on the field.

But I do not think it would be early in the season....it will take a little while.

that's 6' 3" have fun with that

In comment 13521053 Big Blue '56 said:

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Shockey, Jimmy Graham, Kellen Winslow, Jr., pre-injury, Jets' Johnny Mitchell, Jason Witten, Gates, tons more, imv

Kellen Winslow??? played two games in his rookie season and none in his second season -- Gates had 24 Receptions and no TDs in his Rookie season, Johnny Mitchell had 16 receptions in his rookie year, Jason Witten was hardly an impact player in his rookie season - so I'll give you Shockey and Graham -- the reality is that the overwhelming majority of star TEs did not do well in year 1 - please give me some real examples -- Shockey was an anomaly and we certainly don't want to see Engram repeat Shockey - who's first year was his best year -- he couldn't live up to that afterwards.

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Jordan Raanan @JordanRaanan Jordan Raanan Retweeted Mike Clay This reiterates what I found as well. History not on Evan Engram or any rookie TEs side for this year http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/51728/giants-top-pick-evan-engram-has-to-buck-trend-to-be-significant-factor-as-rookie …

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Jordan Raanan @JordanRaanan Jordan Raanan Retweeted The King of Qu- FoHi Only way to show he's a threat is by making plays and putting up stats. He's not getting instant respect just by running fast down the field

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creative on offense as everyone expects they can be.
(I have not seen it yet)

Engram will be successful if McAdoo & Sullivan can use all these weapons in the right way and at the right times.

OBJ, Marshall, Engram, Vereen, and Shepard are a matchup nightmare if used correctly.

Spag's proved if you give him the talent he can use it in the right way and put people in the right places to be successful. (his play calling the 2nd half of the year was off the charts)

Can McAdoo & Sullivan do the same?

In comment 13521043 gidiefor said:

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there is very little evidence to support the idea that a rookie TE can make an impact in the NFL

They used to say that about WRs and then the 2014 draft class hit (Beckham, Evans, Landry, Cooks, etc).

Giants fans especially should be wary of this statement with Shockey (74/894/2) and even Will Tye (42/464/3).

Other recent players:
- Hunter Henry put up 36/478/8 last season.
- Jordan Reed (a guy many have compared Engram too): 45/499/3 in just 9 games
- Tim Wright 54/571/5
- Gronk 42/546/10
- Dwayne Allen 45/521/3
- Zack Ertz 36/469/4

You don't see any TEs putting up 1000 yard seasons, but then again, since 2000 there have only been 23 times total that TEs have crossed that mark and Gronk/Graham/Gonzalez account for 9 of those. In other words, a TE with a 60+ catch, 800+ yard, 5+ TD season is a pro-bowler so a rookie going for 40+ rec, 500+ yards and 5+ TDs is impactful.

In comment 13521087 gidiefor said:

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Quote: Jordan Raanan @JordanRaanan Jordan Raanan Retweeted Mike Clay This reiterates what I found as well. History not on Evan Engram or any rookie TEs side for this year http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/51728/giants-top-pick-evan-engram-has-to-buck-trend-to-be-significant-factor-as-rookie … Link - ( New Window )

The problem with this is that receiving stats are dominated and headlined by WRs (obviously) so when people view any receiving stats, their threshold for what is "impactful" or "good" is based on their view of what the top WRs do. But the #s for the top receiving TEs are well below that and thus, the expectations for what constitutes an impactful year from a rookie TE needs to be adjust accordingly.

From Ranaan's list, I would argue Gresham and Keller had strong rookie seasons (particularly the former who's also a strong run blocker) and Eifert and Olsen were solid. Ebron was awful, especially since his run blocking was poor and Pettigrew was a disappointment as well.

1000 yards.

I expect him to make big plays when needed, and to help make defenses respect the entire field.

If the offense is productive, it will be because Marshall and Engram are making it hard for teams to bracket OBJ. Which will help with the running game and passing game.

will he have huge stats? Likely not. Will he open up the offense as an additional threat? Probably.

Outside of injury I think he will be involved plenty and his presence alone will be a huge upgrade from last years pathetic TE contribution.

In comment 13521080 gidiefor said:

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In comment 13521053 Big Blue '56 said: Quote: Shockey, Jimmy Graham, Kellen Winslow, Jr., pre-injury, Jets' Johnny Mitchell, Jason Witten, Gates, tons more, imv Kellen Winslow??? played two games in his rookie season and none in his second season -- Gates had 24 Receptions and no TDs in his Rookie season, Johnny Mitchell had 16 receptions in his rookie year, Jason Witten was hardly an impact player in his rookie season - so I'll give you Shockey and Graham -- the reality is that the overwhelming majority of star TEs did not do well in year 1 - please give me some real examples -- Shockey was an anomaly and we certainly don't want to see Engram repeat Shockey - who's first year was his best year -- he couldn't live up to that afterwards.

I thought Winslow played more than that, so my bad..Johnny Mitchell? I recall Giants fans lamenting that we took Derek Brown(a bust) over Mitchell, so my recall was based on how well he performed for the NYJ than stats per se..Different eras, but impact-wise(including blocking ability for those eras), Ditka, Mackey, KW! Sr., Jackie Smith, Newsome, Casper. Not sure of Shannon Sharpe's initial impact..There were others, but they wouldn't be listed as TEs today, imo..

make an impact at TE, AFTER he was placed there when he failed as a RB?

what do you mean by IMPACT..

Is he going to catch for 1000 yards and 10 TD's not likely..

Will he have an impact in affecting how defenses play against the Giants because they can change their formations and alignments.. yes..

And despite what Ranaan says.. no DC is going to allow a player to run free down the middle of the field.. He IS going to draw some coverage.. especially if he is fast..

So that will have an effect... will it lessen the amount of Cover 2 the Giants see.. very possible..

However effect and IMPACT can be seen differently..

In comment 13521097 giants#1 said:

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In comment 13521043 gidiefor said: Quote: there is very little evidence to support the idea that a rookie TE can make an impact in the NFL They used to say that about WRs and then the 2014 draft class hit (Beckham, Evans, Landry, Cooks, etc). Giants fans especially should be wary of this statement with Shockey (74/894/2) and even Will Tye (42/464/3). Other recent players: - Hunter Henry put up 36/478/8 last season. - Jordan Reed (a guy many have compared Engram too): 45/499/3 in just 9 games - Tim Wright 54/571/5 - Gronk 42/546/10 - Dwayne Allen 45/521/3 - Zack Ertz 36/469/4 You don't see any TEs putting up 1000 yard seasons, but then again, since 2000 there have only been 23 times total that TEs have crossed that mark and Gronk/Graham/Gonzalez account for 9 of those. In other words, a TE with a 60+ catch, 800+ yard, 5+ TD season is a pro-bowler so a rookie going for 40+ rec, 500+ yards and 5+ TDs is impactful.

Some good points. One thing to keep in mind is that Engram is significantly faster than any of those players were or are.

But he does exist. And for that article not to mention him even while establishing the context of first AND second round TEs is a pretty significant omission.

If the o-line can't hold blocks long enough, teams will continue to smother OBJ and a pass-catching TE won't be a factor.

Here are the TEs that have topped 1000 yards receiving in a single season since 2000:

Gronk
Graham
Tony Gonzalez
Gates
Witten
Travis Kelce
Dallas Clark
Kellen Winslow
Delanie Walker
Gary Barnidge
Greg Olsen

That's literally it. 11 TEs in 17 seasons. And 4 of those (Gonzo, Witten, Gates, and Gronk if he stays somewhat healthy) are HOF TEs. If you lower the threshold to >900 yards, you can add:

Brent Celek
Vernon Davis
Jordan Reed
Jordan Cameron
Martellus Bennett
Aaron Hernandez

to the list. So 17 TEs have topped 900 yards in a season in the last 17 years. Those 17 TEs have combined to top 900 yards just 44 times over that period. For comparison, there were 23 WRs to top 1000 yards in 2016 alone. There were 31 WRs with >900 yards last season. So if 1000 yards is the benchmark for "top" WRs, roughly 1 out of 3 starters reached that level (23 out of 64 assuming teams start 2 WRs).

So people need to stop comparing TEs production to the the typical "1000 yard mark" that is used to judge WRs. A more appropriate level for judging "top" TE production (i.e. the level reached by the top 1/3 of TEs) is 650-700 yards receiving based on last season's totals. If the goal for a rookie is to be 75% of that, then a "good" season for Engram would be around 500 yards receiving which is basically what Tye did as a rookie in less than a full season. So yes, I expect Engram to hit that target and will be disappointed if he falls short of 500 yards.

In comment 13521138 Ira said:

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Some good points. One thing to keep in mind is that Engram is significantly faster than any of those players were or are.

Sure, he's also smaller (height and weight) than many of them and could struggle with jams against LBs particularly when lined up inline.

The biggest advantage for Engram though, is that few, if any, of the recent TEs had a player as dynamic as Beckham lined up outside (to say nothing of BM and SS). Beckham's big play ability alone should get Engram a few easy catches underneath.

In comment 13521142 Ivan15 said:

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If the o-line can't hold blocks long enough, teams will continue to smother OBJ and a pass-catching TE won't be a factor.

Will Tye caught 42 passes for 464 yards in 7 starts (13 games) as a rookie 2 seasons ago with roughly the same OL. You could argue a shitty OL makes a good receiving TE even more vital to an offense since he's an option for quick dump-offs. And unlike Donnell catching it in the flat, Engram actually has the ability to turn up field and pick up some yardage.

Then TE

he will be covered by a safety or LB especially early on as defences will have to take the trio of OBJ,marshall and shepard with thier CB's and even if they use a CB on him it will be thier 4th man on their depth chart with his size and speed over the middle i expect he lights it up i fully expecting him to score a TD versus dallas week 1

what exactly constitutes impact from a TE -- but you guys are wildly optomistic - especially about expecting impact results in game 1

If Engram doesn't pick up his assignments from the playbook right away he is only going to see very limited reps on the field at the beginning of the season. For him to score in game 1 would be great but it is wildly unrealistic. McAdoo and Co would have to have developed a lot of confidence in him for that to happen.

No matter how good he is going to be eventually - he is still a rookie and will have rookie growing pains.

Listening to his teammates describe his route running as equal to the best on the team. His legit 4.42 playing speed at 6'3 3/8" at 236 lbs with a 36" vertical. His determined work ethic and dedication. I have to believe he will be an impact out the gate. The NFL has no one to compare him to. Vernon Davis though fast does not have the route running, suddenness, body control or leaping ability. No TE in the league brings his acceleration. There is no Safety or LB who can cover him man on man.

With OBJ, Shepard and Marshall the opposing D will be severely challenged. Engram will have at least 10 TDs this season. We are about to witness the most explosive Giant O in franchise history and Engram threat to take the top off the D, will be a huge reason why. Forget the statistics of the past rookies because none have come into the league with his skill set, maturity and dedication to his craft. All predraft reports pointed to him being the cleanest prospect in the draft. Singular focus and dedication leads to greatness.

of being a big, fast 4th legitimate target who takes coverage away from other receivers.

Best case -

COME ON BABY LIGHT MY FIRE!

In comment 13521196 MasherJints said:

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We are about to witness the most explosive Giant O in franchise history

Maybe if it were 7 on 7, but given the question marks on the OL that's a wild leap of faith.

I'm predicting a huge impact

In comment 13521182 gidiefor said:

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what exactly constitutes impact from a TE -- but you guys are wildly optomistic - especially about expecting impact results in game 1 If Engram doesn't pick up his assignments from the playbook right away he is only going to see very limited reps on the field at the beginning of the season. For him to score in game 1 would be great but it is wildly unrealistic. McAdoo and Co would have to have developed a lot of confidence in him for that to happen. No matter how good he is going to be eventually - he is still a rookie and will have rookie growing pains.

I can't speak for others, but if he and Ellison are both healthy to open the season, I expect Ellison to get ~70% of the TE snaps and Engram 30%. By the end of the season, I think those percentages will be flipped (though I think we'll also see a lot of 2 TE sets with both of them).

As far as Engram's final numbers, my expectations are: 40+ rec, 500+ yds, and 6+ TDs.

If as I believe, the OL takes the leap in Solari's 2nd season all arguments will be muted. Going into this season the perceived weaknesses was TE, OL. Well thew TE's corps has become a strength, those hoping Tye makes the cut are grasping smoke because right now he is the 5th on the depth chart. With Engram, Ellison and Adams the TE's are formidable, LaCosse if healthy is a bonus. Combined with the depth and talent at WR the possibilities can be devastating.

45-600-6 which is above rookie average. And much of the damage will come in the 2nd half of the season.

I'd be psyched for 60-800-10 but I'll save that for next year. I think he'll learn some patterns that he is totally comfortable with and run with it.

In comment 13521043 gidiefor said:

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there is very little evidence to support the idea that a rookie TE can make an impact in the NFL

This class of TEs was also regarded as the most talented in a long time -- maybe ever.

And as others have said, he doesn't need to go 60 1k and 10 to be impactful.

In comment 13521325 WillVAB said:

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In comment 13521043 gidiefor said: Quote: there is very little evidence to support the idea that a rookie TE can make an impact in the NFL This class of TEs was also regarded as the most talented in a long time -- maybe ever. And as others have said, he doesn't need to go 60 1k and 10 to be impactful.

True, Engram's deep middle speed will definitely keep safeties honest and help our run game. It would be a beautiful thing to see him go 40 or more yards down the middle versus that young Dallas secondary game 1 so teams have film on his ability and gameplan safeties deep.

Rewatching the games last year I have been impressed with how often Eli threw to Tye. 48 catches on 77 targets. I think it's not unrealistic to think that Engram will have similar targets. I think he could catch a higher percent that Tye as well - maybe 70% give or take, so around 50 catches seems very reasonable to me.

The difference will be in yards, imo. Tye was averaging around 8 ypc. He basically would catch the ball and get tackled right away (4.1 YAC). I'm thinking Engram could average about 12 ypc (about 6 YAC), but I wouldn't be surprised if he averages more. That would put him at around 600 yards.

Also, he has breakaway speed for the position. He has the kind of speed that makes it difficult for db's to catch him if he gets a seam. I think that means he can score TD's from outside the red zone, something most TE cannot do very often. We saw in the 2011 playoffs what a super-fast TE can do in a secondary with Davis getting two TD's. I wouldn't be surprised if Engram gets a few this way to go along with a handful in the red zone.

So my prediction is for 50 catches, 600 yards, and 8 TD's. I know that's optimistic, but it would make him a good, not great TE in this league. He would rank 12th in receptions, 17th in yards, and 1st in TD's.

So the TD's could easily be a little lower, but the yards and catches could also be higher. I think this kind of projection is very possible and may even be on the low side for Engram.

will go in cycles this season.....whoever, offensively, has a big week, teams will concentrate on the following week....this will open it up for one of Eli's other options.....and then he gets the attention the next week.....

If this offense can stay healthy, Mac has to open up the play book, and make this offense unpredictable....

When the bulk of the passes went to Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz (and rightly so), Jake Ballard caught 38 passes for 604 yards (15.9 ypc) with 4 TDs. Sure, he was a bigger target than Engram, but he was as slow as molasses. He appeared in 14 games and made 13 starts. I'd call that making a positive impact.

Week 1.

Who's covering him? Are teams ever going to dare double him and leave Beckham in man coverage? Or Marshall 1 on 1 in the redzone?

Engram is going to see man all day ... and there's not many defenders that can match up his size/speed.

I expect Marinelli to play over the top of OBJ and Marshall. The seam in that Tampa 2 will be wide open.

personal stats that some here want to focus on. I would grade it on what improvements the offense has in overall passing stats and rankings along with overall offensive stats.

In comment 13521486 area junc said:

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I expect Marinelli to play over the top of OBJ and Marshall. The seam in that Tampa 2 will be wide open.

Exactly. Dallas doesn't have the defensive personnel to match up with him and therefore Engram should break at least one ball deep. We have multiple playmakers this year and therefore teams will be guessing.

is *potentially the best receiving corp in football

In comment 13521557 annexOPR said:

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is *potentially the best receiving corp in football

I must concur, the best corps in the NFL "potentially" and such.

Because of 2 things:

1. Lack of talent in front of him. He'll get PT.
2. It's clear as day he'll get open in the NFL. I have no doubts about his receiving ability. His game will work in the NFL.

Last year, Henry would have put up monster numbers but Gates is there. When Gates was out, Henry was an impact player. Engram won't have that hurdle here.

Kelce was an impact player the first year he played. He had knee surgery as a rookie. When he hit the field he dominated from the start. 70-800 in his first year of NFL ball. I think Engram can hit those numbers. The opportunity is there for him. Hes such a tough cover and they would be fools not to feature him.

He will be a big play guy so I can see some monster games. I can see him being the 2nd best offensive weapon in year 1.

Be ready to make plays in the postseason... a la Steve Smith

In comment 13521591 mako J said:

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Be ready to make plays in the postseason... a la Steve Smith

Yeah, but let's hope he doesn't miss eleven games due to an injury in his rookie year, like Smith did.