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NFT: A few questions for longtime knowledgable baseball fans....

Milton : 7/15/2017 11:49 pm
After a twenty year hiatus in which I only occasionally checked box scores and the standings, my passion for baseball has returned (and for those who might accuse me of being a fair-weather fan, I left when the Yankees were on top of the world). But the game has changed and I have a lot of catching up to do in terms of my knowledge of it, particularly as regards minor league prospects and their journey to the majors (before the internet took off, we were mainly in the dark when it came to the progress of prospects making their way up the ladder).

So as I try to contemplate what it would be worth in trade for major leaguers such as Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Yonder Alonzo, and others, I need to get up to speed on some of the realities that go into trade value these days. Here are a few questions I have for those much more knowledgable than I...

1. How would you handicap an AL pitcher's stats when compared to an NL pitcher's stats given the DH (i.e, a 3.00 ERA in the AL equals a 2.8 ERA in the NL, a 1.25 WHIP in the AL equals a 1.1 WHIP in the NL)?

2. What is the success rate for prospects who make into the top ten or twenty list of MLB.com prospects (here's the current top 100 prospects)? And how does that success rate compare between pitchers and hitters (is it harder to project pitchers than it is hitters making the transition from the minors to the majors?)?

3. Is it more difficult to project pitchers who have a good control and rely on a variety of pitches but don't throw in the high 90's than it is to project the success of a power pitcher who reaches triple digits with his fastball but lacks control and/or variety? I ask this question because neither of the Yankees top two pitching prospects (Adams and Sheffield) are big guys with overpowering stuff (probably also true of Kaprielian to some extent if you include him).
I'm on a phone so I'll be brief...  
Dunedin81 : 7/16/2017 9:16 am : link
League matters for pitching stats, but arguably stadium matters more. AL West stats, for instance, are probably almost as depressed as NL Central.

Of the Top 100 list, probably 75 will have some form of MLB career. 40-50 long time big leagues and 15-20 will be all stars. There is more coverage and more scouting so presumably they're getting better.

For pitching repertoire, high 90's is going to get a lot more chances than 90 with finesse. It's just the way the league is right now. They love big velo and a control pitcher will need to wow to get chances.
RE: I'm on a phone so I'll be brief...  
Milton : 7/16/2017 12:48 pm : link
Thanks
Quote:
League matters for pitching stats, but arguably stadium matters more.
True dat! Lefties Bobby Ojeda and John Tudor fared much better once they got out of Fenway.
Quote:
AL West stats, for instance, are probably almost as depressed as NL Central.
Something to keep in mind when comparing Sonny Gray to Gerrit Cole.

I'm fascinated, why the twenty year hiatus?  
kinard : 7/16/2017 1:13 pm : link
... You seem like a knowledgeable fan. Why did you stop watching baseball (particularly when your team - the Yankees - were winning World Series')?
RE: I'm fascinated, why the twenty year hiatus?  
Milton : 7/16/2017 2:24 pm : link
In comment 13529358 kinard said:
Quote:
... You seem like a knowledgeable fan. Why did you stop watching baseball (particularly when your team - the Yankees - were winning World Series')?
Unfettered free agency killed it for me. It just wasn't the same when the Yankees were winning with Roger Clemens and Wade Boggs on the team, but with the team returning to a strategy of mostly harvesting their own from the farm, I've become hooked again.

p.s.-- Seinfeld joked that we're rooting for the uniform, but the truth is that the uniform is just the starting point. Until you get invested in the actual players, the interest is superficial and it's easy to drift away (which is what happened to me). But now I'm re-invested in this young group of talent and the more I read and learn about them, the more dug in I get.
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