After a twenty year hiatus in which I only occasionally checked box scores and the standings, my passion for baseball has returned (and for those who might accuse me of being a fair-weather fan, I left when the Yankees were on top of the world). But the game has changed and I have a lot of catching up to do in terms of my knowledge of it, particularly as regards minor league prospects and their journey to the majors (before the internet took off, we were mainly in the dark when it came to the progress of prospects making their way up the ladder).
So as I try to contemplate what it would be worth in trade for major leaguers such as Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Yonder Alonzo, and others, I need to get up to speed on some of the realities that go into trade value these days. Here are a few questions I have for those much more knowledgable than I...
1. How would you handicap an AL pitcher's stats when compared to an NL pitcher's stats given the DH (i.e, a 3.00 ERA in the AL equals a 2.8 ERA in the NL, a 1.25 WHIP in the AL equals a 1.1 WHIP in the NL)?
2. What is the success rate for prospects who make into the top ten or twenty
list of MLB.com prospects (here's the current top 100 prospects
)? And how does that success rate compare between pitchers and hitters (is it harder to project pitchers than it is hitters making the transition from the minors to the majors?)?
3. Is it more difficult to project pitchers who have a good control and rely on a variety of pitches but don't throw in the high 90's than it is to project the success of a power pitcher who reaches triple digits with his fastball but lacks control and/or variety? I ask this question because neither of the Yankees top two pitching prospects (Adams and Sheffield) are big guys with overpowering stuff (probably also true of Kaprielian to some extent if you include him).