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NGT: If Kirk Cousins lost to free agency in 2018

ep in md : 7/17/2017 8:40 am
One seemingly likely scenario is that Cousins gets the transition tag from the Redskins. If they do not match the offer, the team doesn't get directly compensated. Though, depending upon their FAs signed and the presumed high dollar amount of the contract, they will almost assuredly receive a compensatory draft pick(s).

I was wondering what this might amount too and having skimmed through the rules the *maximum* compensation a team can receive is 4 picks.
a single player can only net you  
giants#1 : 7/17/2017 8:43 am : link
one comp pick. Losing Cousins would likely net them the 1st comp pick (end of round 3, 97th overall) in the 2019 draft.
thanks  
ep in md : 7/17/2017 8:56 am : link
giant#1
I highly doubt they do that  
ZogZerg : 7/17/2017 10:16 am : link
They either sign him long term or move along. That is game they could get burned on.
Transition tag would cost them 28 million if no one signs him. That means they would have paid him 70+ million for 3 years. They would look like complete fools for not getting a deal done.

The bottom line is, Cousins has lost his top 2 targets and his O coordinator. If he plays just as well this year as he did last year he will break the bank next year. If he struggles then the tag is mute.
RE: I highly doubt they do that  
NoPeanutz : 7/17/2017 10:22 am : link
In comment 13529944 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
They either sign him long term or move along. That is game they could get burned on.
Transition tag would cost them 28 million if no one signs him. That means they would have paid him 70+ million for 3 years. They would look like complete fools for not getting a deal done.

And if there's one thing that never makes Dan Snyder look like a fool, it's running the Washington NFL team.
Cousins is a flawed player,  
Section331 : 7/17/2017 10:39 am : link
but one has to wonder what DC is thinking. Where are they going to find someone better? I don't know if Bruce Allen, being a former agent, thinks he can outsmart Cousins' agents, or if he and Snyder have doubts about Cousins long term, but they will look foolish if they lose him for a draft pick, and he plays well in SF.
I would keep him  
Jimmy Googs : 7/17/2017 11:01 am : link
why not?
Hi agent knows  
Frank in Silver Spring : 7/17/2017 11:10 am : link
that he will command 5 years/$125 million on the open market, with possibly $50 million guaranteed. That's simply the cost of doing business with a starting caliber NFL quarterback, these days. If the Redskins think he'll settle for less, it's a pipe dream.
half joking ...  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 11:12 am : link
would be funny to snag him as Eli's successor ...
We could do far worse  
Stratman : 7/17/2017 11:26 am : link
in a successor to Eli than Cousins. I think he's pretty darn good. He can be prone to bonehead interceptions but so is Eli. The only downside to Cousins as a successor to Eli is his age.
...  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 11:44 am : link
I'm just looking forward to how Washington screws this up ...

Cousins is good. QBs need to be paid.
RE: ...  
SoZKillA : 7/17/2017 12:26 pm : link
In comment 13530029 annexOPR said:
Quote:
I'm just looking forward to how Washington screws this up ...

Cousins is good. QBs need to be paid.


Cousins is horrendous. Guy folds whenever there's a big situation going on, I hope they keep him, for our sake. He stinks.
Skins are idiots  
AnnapolisMike : 7/17/2017 12:51 pm : link
Cousins is a good QB. Last year he threw for 4,917 yards, 25 TD's and 12 INT's. In 2015 the line was 4,166, 29 and 11. Not that he is a better QB...but his stats are better than Eli's over the past two years. A good team can win with him at QB. If he has a decent year...he will break the bank next off season.
horrendous  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 12:52 pm : link
doesn't throw for almost 5000 yards, rush for 4 TDs, with only 12 INTs and a top 10 QB rating

I thought I read something like his 2-year QB stats are better than  
Jimmy Googs : 7/17/2017 12:53 pm : link
anybody in the NFL not named Brady.

Can anybody confirm they saw the same?
RE: I thought I read something like his 2-year QB stats are better than  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 12:54 pm : link
In comment 13530103 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
anybody in the NFL not named Brady.

Can anybody confirm they saw the same?


he's played very well since becoming the starter. Underrated mobility and he can throw as good a deep ball any anybody ...

the "horrendous" commentary is a joke. the skins would be dumb to let him walk as he enters his prime.
also this  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 12:56 pm : link
" Cousins directed the largest come-from-behind win in Redskins history behind a 33-completion, 317-yard, three-touchdown performance. The 33 completions tied a franchise record held by Jason Campbell and set in 2007. Cousins' third touchdown pass went to Jordan Reed with 24 seconds remaining to complete the dramatic comeback. The Redskins had trailed by 24 points in the second quarter. The team's previous biggest comebacks came from 21 points, which the Redskins pulled off three times."

shame he folds up all the time
I hope they lose him  
giantgiantfan : 7/17/2017 1:57 pm : link
whether or not he can make them a perennial playoff team or more is besides the point. A Kirk Cousins lead team can beat the Giants. I rather see them a bottom tier QB. In the skins lone win against us last year he went 21 of 35, for 296 years and 2 TDs (no ints).
RE: Hi agent knows  
LauderdaleMatty : 7/17/2017 2:07 pm : link
In comment 13529995 Frank in Silver Spring said:
Quote:
that he will command 5 years/$125 million on the open market, with possibly $50 million guaranteed. That's simply the cost of doing business with a starting caliber NFL quarterback, these days. If the Redskins think he'll settle for less, it's a pipe dream.


No one. And I mean no one is giving Cousins 125 million. The guy is Andy Dalton at best. Washington is in no man's land. They don't have anyone else and don't want to let him go and tank.

If it wasn't for the new idiocy of the media w their new Prescott fetish I'd state he was the most over rated player in the NFL. He's good solid QB. 125 million QB, if he is then no one here should ever whine about what Eli gets.
RE: RE: Hi agent knows  
AnnapolisMike : 7/17/2017 2:21 pm : link
In comment 13530161 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:

No one. And I mean no one is giving Cousins 125 million. The guy is Andy Dalton at best. Washington is in no man's land. They don't have anyone else and don't want to let him go and tank.

If it wasn't for the new idiocy of the media w their new Prescott fetish I'd state he was the most over rated player in the NFL. He's good solid QB. 125 million QB, if he is then no one here should ever whine about what Eli gets.


If he has a decent year....He will get the 125M...or more. Derek Carr signed a 5yr/125m and Cousins has better stats than Carr. That is crazy money for one guy...but WTF are you going to do. It is the going price for a decent QB.
RE: RE: Hi agent knows  
giants#1 : 7/17/2017 2:27 pm : link
In comment 13530161 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
In comment 13529995 Frank in Silver Spring said:


Quote:


that he will command 5 years/$125 million on the open market, with possibly $50 million guaranteed. That's simply the cost of doing business with a starting caliber NFL quarterback, these days. If the Redskins think he'll settle for less, it's a pipe dream.



No one. And I mean no one is giving Cousins 125 million. The guy is Andy Dalton at best. Washington is in no man's land. They don't have anyone else and don't want to let him go and tank.

If it wasn't for the new idiocy of the media w their new Prescott fetish I'd state he was the most over rated player in the NFL. He's good solid QB. 125 million QB, if he is then no one here should ever whine about what Eli gets.


Well Dalton got $96M and that was back in 2014 and he wasn't even a FA. Alex Smith got $17M per season before the 2015 season and you could pretty easily argue that Cousins is better than him. So the absolute floor for Cousins is probably 5 years/$100M ($20M per). Throw in the fact that there are a number of QB needy teams and that above average QBs almost never hit FA, and a bidding war could certainly push him up to the $25M per season range.
RE: RE: RE: Hi agent knows  
Section331 : 7/17/2017 2:28 pm : link
In comment 13530181 AnnapolisMike said:
Quote:

If he has a decent year....He will get the 125M...or more. Derek Carr signed a 5yr/125m and Cousins has better stats than Carr. That is crazy money for one guy...but WTF are you going to do. It is the going price for a decent QB.


Agreed, and it will be due largely to Bruce Allen's incompetence if the Skins sign him to a deal like that. Cousins holds ALL of the leverage. He knows DC can't afford to franchise him again, so he should keep saying no to anything they offer. $125 mill will be his starting point, so if DC wants to keep him, he'll almost certainly cost more.
Let me know the next time Kirk Cousins wins a big game  
Greg from LI : 7/17/2017 2:35 pm : link
He'll also turn 29 this season, so he's not actually young despite only being the starter for a couple of seasons.
I stand by my prediction  
Frank in Silver Spring : 7/17/2017 2:43 pm : link
and will add that as long as he gags at least twice a year (in this case, Thanksgiving and New Year's Eve), I'll be more than happy with him in burgundy and gold for the foreseeable future.
RE: RE: RE: Hi agent knows  
LauderdaleMatty : 7/17/2017 3:50 pm : link
In comment 13530181 AnnapolisMike said:
Quote:
In comment 13530161 LauderdaleMatty said:


Quote:



No one. And I mean no one is giving Cousins 125 million. The guy is Andy Dalton at best. Washington is in no man's land. They don't have anyone else and don't want to let him go and tank.

If it wasn't for the new idiocy of the media w their new Prescott fetish I'd state he was the most over rated player in the NFL. He's good solid QB. 125 million QB, if he is then no one here should ever whine about what Eli gets.



If he has a decent year....He will get the 125M...or more. Derek Carr signed a 5yr/125m and Cousins has better stats than Carr. That is crazy money for one guy...but WTF are you going to do. It is the going price for a decent QB.



Again maybe this is an opinion but I bet there isn't one GM in the NFL
who would pick Cousins over Carr. Stats impress the fantasy crowd. I don't dislike Cousins but he's never impressed me a top tier
Guy who Carries a team.
Of course no GM would ever choose Cousins over Carr  
Greg from LI : 7/17/2017 3:55 pm : link
That's ludicrous.
of course every GM is taking Carr  
giants#1 : 7/17/2017 4:11 pm : link
He's arguably the 3rd best QB under 30 (after Luck/Newton).

But Carr isn't going to be available and Cousins very well could be. A team like the Texans (top 3 defense, legit offensive weapons with Hopkins/Miller) would easily pay $20M for Cousins (look at what they paid for Osweiler!).
Well,  
Doomster : 7/17/2017 4:24 pm : link
4 o'clock has come and gone, so the Skins are on the hook for 24M.....

So what happens if he has a "good" year(good being defined by which NFL GM is desperate for a qb)?

As others have mentioned, to franchise him again, it will cost 34M...the transition tag would be 28M, with no compensation.....

The Skins needed to make a decision last season....now it is costing them.....no way, he makes life easy for the Skins, if he has a "good" year....
Cousins will go off this year  
Glover : 7/17/2017 6:09 pm : link
The Skins are out of their dam minds. If they based their decision, not to sign him long term, on the fact that he couldnt' beat the Giants to get into the playoffs last year, it was pretty dumb decision. I just watched that game again, and the Giants were just mean. Skins scored 3 points in the first half. They should have given him a long term deal last year, and not doing it again this year is beyond stupid. He should have gotten, and still should get a long term deal for 2nd tier QB. Like a Matt Stafford, or Brock Osweiller deal.

I'm glad the skins are being dumb, and Cousins will sign somewhere else, and they will have to start all over again at the position.
RE: RE: ...  
djm : 7/17/2017 6:29 pm : link
In comment 13530062 SoZKillA said:
Quote:
In comment 13530029 annexOPR said:


Quote:


I'm just looking forward to how Washington screws this up ...

Cousins is good. QBs need to be paid.



Cousins is horrendous. Guy folds whenever there's a big situation going on, I hope they keep him, for our sake. He stinks.


Define stinks?
You pay Cousins that kind of money  
UConn4523 : 7/17/2017 6:59 pm : link
you are likely paying for medicority. Stats are cool and all but what has that gotten the skins? Franchising him is the right call, I just hope as a Giants fan they never get picks for him.
Funniest part of this whole situation  
DCOrange : 7/17/2017 7:12 pm : link
GM Bruce Allen calling Cousins Kurt throughout his press conference today. The Skins put out a statement blaming Allen's accent but this is not the first time he's done it.
....  
christian : 7/17/2017 7:18 pm : link
Cousins could put a talented team in need of a QB over the top. He doesn't appear to have the late game, clutch situation EQ to win big games, but 1) you have to win regularly to get to those situations 2) he's at the experience level now where that skill starts showing more for players.

Anyone who thinks he's just stats is being ridiculous.
We'd be lucky  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 7:21 pm : link
to have a QB like Cousins after Eli ...

and if he hits free agency, he's going to break the bank - because he's a good QB, and those are quite valuable

see Osweiler, Brock ... or this year's 1st round to see how much teams are willing to overpay. for a potential starting QB.

Other things to consider  
jpennyva : 7/17/2017 7:44 pm : link
As noted previously, Cousins lost some of his best targets so it will be interesting to see how well he gels with their replacements. IIRC, next year's draft class is supposed to have a wealth of decent QBs so I could see some teams opting to draft a QB rather than paying Cousins outrageous money but it will depend on his overall performance, not only stats but the intangibles as well. I think Cousins is a decent, middle-of-the-pack QB but I don't see him leading the 'Skins to the playoffs. He could perhaps do so with another team that has other strengths, but not the DC. And, if he gets injured, he may well regret not working something out with the 'Skins.
T.Pryor  
annexOPR : 7/17/2017 7:45 pm : link
is a big talented target ... Cousins will be fine as long as Reed stays healthy

RE: We'd be lucky  
UConn4523 : 7/17/2017 7:57 pm : link
In comment 13530468 annexOPR said:
Quote:
to have a QB like Cousins after Eli ...

and if he hits free agency, he's going to break the bank - because he's a good QB, and those are quite valuable

see Osweiler, Brock ... or this year's 1st round to see how much teams are willing to overpay. for a potential starting QB.


We'd be lucky if it's a QB of Cousins' caliber but on his rookie deal. You are going to be paying Cousins superstar money for nothing close to a superstar player. While I have no plan for the Skins without Cousins I know they will be cap strong with high draft picks within a year or two. With Cousins they are likely mediocre for the duration of his contract. Simple decision for me.
It's a weird situation  
dpinzow : 7/18/2017 9:44 am : link
Cousins is a notch below a franchise QB but every starting QB of his caliber gets franchise money. Washington is looking for someone perfect but they have a guy who can win if he gets a strong defense and running game. However, the Washington front office is not good enough to build that defense and running game while giving Cousins franchise money
Cousins will..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 7/18/2017 9:53 am : link
get paid for being a top QB, without being a top QB. That's a perfect situation you want to put your opponents in. Make them give huge contracts to a Matt Schaub or Detweiler. Make teams overpay for for those types of players.

Hopefully, Washington will roll the truck back for him.

I love the guys who crap on stats until it props up an argument for a guy like Cousins. Then they become the be-all end-all of discussion. Cousins is a decent QB who will be a steady performer. He'll have some good games and he'll have some bad games. He still stares down WR's and regresses in the big games. You want to pay him like a franchise guy - be my guest. As long as it isn't us, we come out ahead.
RE: Cousins will..  
giants#1 : 7/18/2017 10:08 am : link
In comment 13530850 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
get paid for being a top QB, without being a top QB. That's a perfect situation you want to put your opponents in. Make them give huge contracts to a Matt Schaub or Detweiler. Make teams overpay for for those types of players.

Hopefully, Washington will roll the truck back for him.

I love the guys who crap on stats until it props up an argument for a guy like Cousins. Then they become the be-all end-all of discussion. Cousins is a decent QB who will be a steady performer. He'll have some good games and he'll have some bad games. He still stares down WR's and regresses in the big games. You want to pay him like a franchise guy - be my guest. As long as it isn't us, we come out ahead.


The problem is they've backed themselves into a corner by franchising him last year and daring him to repeat his 2015 performance. Then he went out and topped it giving the Skins no leverage whatsoever. Back-to-back strong seasons prove he's not a flash in the pan (Foles, Osweiler, etc), he's one of the highest paid QBs for 2017, and the tag rules make it virtually impossible for them to tag him a 3rd time. Even the transition tag is a stretch. And if they don't extend Cousins, they then have a gaping hole at the most crucial position again and will likely be drafting to late in the first to get one of the premium prospects.

And I assume Cousins and his agent know what a QB of his caliber (probably in the 10-12 range when ranking QBs) would get on the open market. Mike Glennon signed for $15M per over 3 years and he's a bottom 5 starter (if that). When's the last time a QB even close to his level hit FA? There's really no precedent for a solid, young QB entering his prime hitting FA.

RE: Funniest part of this whole situation  
B in ALB : 7/18/2017 10:09 am : link
In comment 13530465 DCOrange said:
Quote:
GM Bruce Allen calling Cousins Kurt throughout his press conference today. The Skins put out a statement blaming Allen's accent but this is not the first time he's done it.


That is hilarious. It's such a redskins thing to do.
RE: You pay Cousins that kind of money  
Section331 : 7/18/2017 10:22 am : link
In comment 13530461 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
you are likely paying for medicority. Stats are cool and all but what has that gotten the skins? Franchising him is the right call, I just hope as a Giants fan they never get picks for him.


Franchising him after this year is out of the question. A 3rd franchise tag would cost the Skins $34 mill in 2018, no one in their right mind is paying that. He's a flawed player, but who else are they going to get? He has the Skins over a barrel, and Carr's contract is the starting point, not where his agents hope to end up. Bruce Allen has himself to thank for screwing this up.
cousins  
annexOPR : 7/18/2017 10:38 am : link
will get at least 20M per season.

I'm not saying the Giants should even consider it ... just that Cousins is ridiculously underrated by some on this board. If Eli's successor is anything like Cousins, we're lucky.
Washington lost  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 7/18/2017 10:57 am : link
Jackson & Garcon this offseason, as well as McVay to the Rams. I think their offense takes a significant step back.
How can Cousins..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 7/18/2017 10:57 am : link
be ridiculously underrated on this board when most people talk about him like he's an excellent QB?

He's the perfect example of a guy whose stats production outshines his actual ability and results.

He's a healthy Sam Bradford or Andy Dalton. Pay those guys top dollar and see what you get. Actually, you can just look to the teams who did exactly that to see what happened.
RE: cousins  
UConn4523 : 7/18/2017 10:59 am : link
In comment 13530906 annexOPR said:
Quote:
will get at least 20M per season.

I'm not saying the Giants should even consider it ... just that Cousins is ridiculously underrated by some on this board. If Eli's successor is anything like Cousins, we're lucky.


I commented on that yesterday, I'd love Cousins on his rookie deal. But when we are talking superstar money, you really would want the Giants spending that on him?
I think he's better than Bradford  
djm : 7/18/2017 11:00 am : link
about equal with Dalton.

Damned if you do damned if you don't. The only way the Skins win here is if they let him walk and replace him adequately or they keep him and somehow win a lot of games with Cousins at the helm. More than likely they regret either move.
RE: cousins  
Section331 : 7/18/2017 11:22 am : link
In comment 13530906 annexOPR said:
Quote:
will get at least 20M per season.

I'm not saying the Giants should even consider it ... just that Cousins is ridiculously underrated by some on this board. If Eli's successor is anything like Cousins, we're lucky.


Meh, he's a decent player, but has significant flaws. Inaccurate downfield, and brutally bad when pressured. You sign him unless you have someone behind him you like.
RE: RE: cousins  
annexOPR : 7/18/2017 11:28 am : link
In comment 13530976 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 13530906 annexOPR said:


Quote:


will get at least 20M per season.

I'm not saying the Giants should even consider it ... just that Cousins is ridiculously underrated by some on this board. If Eli's successor is anything like Cousins, we're lucky.



Meh, he's a decent player, but has significant flaws. Inaccurate downfield, and brutally bad when pressured. You sign him unless you have someone behind him you like.


he's so inaccurate downfield and brutal when pressured that he ranked #1 in "Air yards" last year

"Air yards is defined as the total distance that a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. Air yards is calculated by taking total passing yards and subtracting Yards After the Catch (YAC)."
Numbers - ( New Window )
Cousins..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 7/18/2017 11:32 am : link
threw the ball downfield more than any other QB too.

That isn't a reflection on his accuracy, but moreso the design of the offense that utilizes their TE as a seam receiver instead of a dumpoff and a design that doesn't utilize the backs as safety valves very often.

It's part of the reason Cousins stats look so good - he throws the ball downfield at a higher rate than almost any other QB.
RE: RE: RE: cousins  
Section331 : 7/18/2017 11:34 am : link
In comment 13530986 annexOPR said:
Quote:

he's so inaccurate downfield and brutal when pressured that he ranked #1 in "Air yards" last year

"Air yards is defined as the total distance that a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. Air yards is calculated by taking total passing yards and subtracting Yards After the Catch (YAC)." Numbers - ( New Window )


Probably based on attempts. He threw downfield a fair amount, but was pretty inaccurate when doing so - 43% at over 20 yards (20th in the NFL), and 48% over 17 yards (21st).
RE: Cousins..  
annexOPR : 7/18/2017 11:43 am : link
In comment 13530991 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
threw the ball downfield more than any other QB too.

That isn't a reflection on his accuracy, but moreso the design of the offense that utilizes their TE as a seam receiver instead of a dumpoff and a design that doesn't utilize the backs as safety valves very often.

It's part of the reason Cousins stats look so good - he throws the ball downfield at a higher rate than almost any other QB.


making his 67% completion rate even more impressive.

he was the 7th overall rated QB last year and put up nearly 5K yards. he's good.
Paying top dollar money for QBs that haven't won SuperBowls  
Jimmy Googs : 7/18/2017 1:35 pm : link
is tough to swallow, but in certain cases it may very well be warranted, especially if the alternative is way too risky or simply not available. It may be their own fault, but the Redskins don't have a lot of easy alternatives.

Furthermore, last I checked, Cousins plays QB for the Redskins...not defense or special teams. You can slice up his QB performance and their offensive performance for the past 2 years anyway you want, and you will see pretty high marks across the board (QB ratings, yards, points scored, TDs, etc). They are always in the top third of league in almost any stat.

But defensively, they are almost always in the bottom half of the league and many times in bottom 5 teams of most defensive categories. Isn't this clearly the reason for less wins and success for the Redskins versus pointing fingers at Cousins? Is this even debatable?

But in this thread Cousins is the one criticized as FLAWED, HORRENDOUS, HE FOLDS, CAN'T WIN A BIG GAME and MEDIOCRE.

Really?



...  
annexOPR : 7/18/2017 1:56 pm : link
"After a slow start, Cousins has found his groove once again, ranking as the No. 5 quarterback in the league since Week 5. He’s added more of a big-play element to his game, leading the league with 1,137 yards on deep passes while ranking second with 11 touchdowns. Cousins has also been among the league’s best at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, ranking ninth in that area. One of the more underrated parts of Cousins’ game is his ability to avoid sacks and he’s been taken down on only 10.6 percent of his pressured dropbacks, the lowest percentage in the league. If there’s an area to improve, it’s in the red zone where Cousins has not been efficient, but he overall he continues to show himself to be a viable NFL quarterback."

he's not far from being a top 10 QB
Skins  
Dragon : 7/18/2017 4:14 pm : link
Have done all they can they don't value him as a 125 mil five year QB so you play the season out wash your hands and let him hit UFA. Most people don't see a special QB they see a decent QB I don't see any team spending over 22 mil per year for him no matter what he believes. Sometimes the best thing for everyone concerned is to just divorce and start over even if the fans question your move.
I'd be a little careful of underestimating Cousins' worth  
Section331 : 7/18/2017 4:22 pm : link
on the open market. He will get paid, likely with a sum that will dwarf Carr's. There are a number of QB-needy teams that will have cap space next year.

The question is will the Skins be the ones to pony up. My guess is no, since that would require that Bruce Allen acknowledge how poorly he played this. While most expect him to be a 49er, given his relationship with Kyle Shanahan, it would n't shock me to see him in Jet green.
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