I heard an interesting stat last night about NFL Games

The Pats always score last in the first half and always win.

Just kidding, it's not skewed, that's part of the reason they win so much. They are so good at that.

But 50% of a time an offense scores at the end of the half, they get the ball back, so its basically a free possesion

Dallas dominated the first half and takes a TD lead with about a minute to go in the 1st half. Eli them promptly leads the offense down the field and the Giants score with seconds to spare. I feel like that somewhat demoralized Dallas. We all know how that game ended up.

Both in our favor and against. Crazy stat if true.

I was there. I know it affected the crowd. Nice to hear Cowgirl fans worried about the 13-3 season going down the drain. Best part was the next day, not one Cowgirl hat, shirt, banner to be found on anyone anywhere I went.

Skewed stat.
Keith : 11:34 am : link : reply
The Pats always score last in the first half and always win.

Just kidding, it's not skewed, that's part of the reason they win so much. They are so good at that.


they usually defer to take the kickoff in the second half...score again and the game is essentially over.....

out something. Do you mean score first?

Assuming TDs, it's close to the normal probability of spotting a team a 7 point lead (between 75-80%). That's essentially what that stat is projecting. Not groundbreaking but still interesting nonetheless. I imagine the bump to 81% can be attributed to momentum, especially when the team that got scored on has to surrender the ball to start the second half. That hail mary conversion vs us in the playoffs basically buried us.
Source - ( New Window )

I picked up the stat from watching the Los Angeles Chargers 2016 season in review New head coach Anthony Lynn was working his team on the two minute drill in which his kicker kicked a FG and he complemented his team and turned to a player and said "82% of teams who score before the half, regardless of the score ends up winning the game".
I would imagine as a head coach this would be a true stat.

"score in the last two minutes of the half" or a similar metric.

did he mean who ever scores at the end of the half as in the final two minutes and not at the whistle. I took the interpretation as being inside 2 minutes.

In comment 13534675 djl8699 said:

Quote:

Dallas dominated the first half and takes a TD lead with about a minute to go in the 1st half. Eli them promptly leads the offense down the field and the Giants score with seconds to spare. I feel like that somewhat demoralized Dallas. We all know how that game ended up.

Yup, and before that remember Super Bowl XXV. The Hoss to Baker TD pass to cut the deficit to 12-10 was huge.

that score on the opening drive of the game, or the second half, do pretty well too.

I would bet that teams that score at between the 15 and 16th. minute win 82% of the time.
I would bet that teams that score the most between the 17th and 18th minute win between 83% and 81% of the time.
What you're saying it that the team that scores the most at any specific point in time scores the most overall.
So the question is "How could it be otherwise".?
~

In comment 13538033 grizz299 said:

Quote:

I would bet that teams that score at between the 15 and 16th. minute win 82% of the time. I would bet that teams that score the most between the 17th and 18th minute win between 83% and 81% of the time. What you're saying it that the team that scores the most at any specific point in time scores the most overall. So the question is "How could it be otherwise".? ~

Wrong, but not surprising that you would miss the point.

As was mentioned above, the important factor here is that in the scenario of scoring right before the end of the half, there exists a possibility to get the ball right back to start the second half (this is something that the Patriots specifically aim for). It's a strong strategic move - if there's anything misleading about it, it's that it overstates the obvious: the team that is better at strategy and ability to dictate the game accordingly will win the vast majority of games.

In comment 13535312 Metnut said:

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that score on the opening drive of the game, or the second half, do pretty well too.

except for our team. TC teams were known for scoring on first scripted drives and going back to the locker room for the the rest of the game.