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NFT: Bet on Mayweather and make 16-20% if he wins (crazy upside)

Beezer : 7/24/2017 11:25 am
Whoever is sitting in for Dan Patrick this morning (missed the beginning of the show) was going on and on, very dramatically, about how this investment is the easiest money he could ever imagine.

Mayweather opened at -2250 last November, and since then, the numbers have shrunk considerably. The last two lines had him at -500 and -600.

If you had a chunk of change to bet (or maybe you do, and will!), do you go for what some think is the easy money and take Mayweather?

Leads to the other, often-had conversation ... is there any way in hell MacGregor can win this?
Only way I see it is if Mayweather is so pissed that he just goes  
Gmen1982 : 7/24/2017 11:28 am : link
offensive and MacGregor catches him. That's if the bantering is actually real and not just business.
Irish money went to McGregor  
Giants in 07 : 7/24/2017 11:30 am : link
MMA fans money going to McGregor...

'People that don't watch either boxing or MMA but are going to a party for the fight and want to have some sort of rooting interest' money going to McGregor

I don't see how he wins.

I start betting pretty heavily around the time of the fight (NFL, EPL, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A all starting up) so I'll be adding Mayweather to a lot of parlays.
.  
arcarsenal : 7/24/2017 11:37 am : link
I have a stubborn friend who always goes against the grain and this is one of those cases - he insists McGregor will win, so I bet him $50. I wanted to bet 100 or 200 but 50 was the highest he'd go.

Feels too easy.

He's a Jets fan and hates NYG (particularly OBJ) so I'm trying to think of what I can put his money towards that will piss him off the most.
RE: .  
Danny Kanell : 7/24/2017 11:42 am : link
In comment 13537438 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I have a stubborn friend who always goes against the grain and this is one of those cases - he insists McGregor will win, so I bet him $50. I wanted to bet 100 or 200 but 50 was the highest he'd go.

Feels too easy.

He's a Jets fan and hates NYG (particularly OBJ) so I'm trying to think of what I can put his money towards that will piss him off the most.


What 07 said above  
AcesUp : 7/24/2017 11:43 am : link
All the casual money is going on Mcgregor and will continue to do so until the day of the fight. Who wants to lay -600 when they're most likely laying <100 bucks on the fight? Most don't really have the apetite to lay those kind of odds and nor should they, it's not fun. Betting on the underdog, especially a more likeable one at that, when it could net you 4-5x is much more exciting.

This is why it is way too low right now. I'm pretty sure Mayweather had bigger odds his last few fights when he fought actual boxers. I imagine the day of the fight, the big, fearless and knowledgeable money will hammer Mayweather. The final line will be much higher. If you have the stomach for it, laying the 600 is a solid wager right now.
Floyd's going to destroy him  
Torrag : 7/24/2017 11:46 am : link
I deliberately waited for the partisan Irish money and moron MMA money to filter in and bring the odds down to lay my bet. It's going to be like an early Christmas bonus.
RE: Floyd's going to destroy him  
Jay on the Island : 7/24/2017 11:49 am : link
In comment 13537458 Torrag said:
Quote:
I deliberately waited for the partisan Irish money and moron MMA money to filter in and bring the odds down to lay my bet. It's going to be like an early Christmas bonus.

Where is a good place to place a bet?
Jay I have a long time bookie but I'm not sharing that info  
Torrag : 7/24/2017 11:50 am : link
...ask around your bar friends someone will have a name and number.
RE: Only way I see it is if Mayweather is so pissed that he just goes  
Beezer : 7/24/2017 12:00 pm : link
In comment 13537427 Gmen1982 said:
Quote:
offensive and MacGregor catches him. That's if the bantering is actually real and not just business.


Mayweather says he's going to stand toe-to-toe and go at it.

I also believe he has a nice bridge for sale, rather cheap.
RE: RE: Floyd's going to destroy him  
Giants in 07 : 7/24/2017 12:07 pm : link
In comment 13537460 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 13537458 Torrag said:


Quote:


I deliberately waited for the partisan Irish money and moron MMA money to filter in and bring the odds down to lay my bet. It's going to be like an early Christmas bonus.


Where is a good place to place a bet?


Purchase bitcoin, transfer to bitcoin sportsbook (many of them - betcoin, betonline etc..)

You don't have to give any personal info this way.
Mayweather will easily win a decission  
ZogZerg : 7/24/2017 12:11 pm : link
The issue is, you can't trust boxing. Whether there is a dive or the judges fix the fight.
RE: Mayweather will easily win a decission  
TurdFurguson : 7/24/2017 12:20 pm : link
In comment 13537505 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
The issue is, you can't trust boxing. Whether there is a dive or the judges fix the fight.


This is my biggest concern with this fight, which is why I'm not touching the betting scene. The actual fight here is Floyd's pride vs. Floyd's love of money. Which side he ends up on dictates this fight.
Matyweather is a slippery fish, he will carry the fight  
gtt350 : 7/24/2017 1:09 pm : link
to a boring decision as always
Mayweather is too smart  
larryflower37 : 7/24/2017 1:30 pm : link
and one of the best defensive fighters ever.

This will be a boring fight, Mayweather is not going to expose himself. Pacquiao could not touch him what makes anyone think McGregor will get close.

The big question is if McGregor has the strength and condition to go 12? He has never gone anywhere close to that and against a great boxer like Mayweather.
I could see him drop his arms midway and Mayweather just TKO him
McGregor is one of the most over rated MMA fighters ever.  
LauderdaleMatty : 7/24/2017 1:53 pm : link
I don't begrudge him his fame or his business savvy. He and Michael Bisbing are champions because the new UFC ownership has zero interest in who is the best in any weight class. this is about the UFC recouping its investment.

Connor isn't close to the best guy in his own weight class. And he's a coward. Fight Ferguson and Khabib and then we can talk. Eddie Alvarez is a mediocre fighter. His best win was a flash knock out of Aldo. hes had 1 fight at 155. I honestly thinks he's a borderline 155 guy.

Also the line coming down is a God send for Vegas. Lost of morons out there. McGreggor as a Buster Douglass chance to win. I'm as far from a Floyd fan as you can get. Conor has little to no chance. Anyone who knows anything about boxing and MMA Knows it. .
RE: Mayweather is too smart  
Cam in MO : 7/24/2017 1:55 pm : link
In comment 13537628 larryflower37 said:
Quote:
and one of the best defensive fighters ever.

This will be a boring fight, Mayweather is not going to expose himself. Pacquiao could not touch him what makes anyone think McGregor will get close.

The big question is if McGregor has the strength and condition to go 12? He has never gone anywhere close to that and against a great boxer like Mayweather.
I could see him drop his arms midway and Mayweather just TKO him


If you've seen any of his MMA fights, his arms are always dropped. Doesn't ever have a hand up when he swings...the other hand is below his waist.

It'll be interesting to see how he adapts from basically bare knuckle to gloves. Two totally different techniques.

I'm afraid the whole thing is more a farce than anything, though- and the two of them will dance away from each other for 12rds and an easy payday. I'm certainly not shelling out $100 for PPV.



As  
mitch300 : 7/24/2017 2:13 pm : link
the numbers the op described you have to pay 500-600 dollars to win 1 dollar.Yeah he will most likely win. However, is anybody really going to put up a lot of cash with the risk something goes wrong.
RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 7/24/2017 2:15 pm : link
In comment 13537448 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
In comment 13537438 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


I have a stubborn friend who always goes against the grain and this is one of those cases - he insists McGregor will win, so I bet him $50. I wanted to bet 100 or 200 but 50 was the highest he'd go.

Feels too easy.

He's a Jets fan and hates NYG (particularly OBJ) so I'm trying to think of what I can put his money towards that will piss him off the most.





Not a bad idea.
in a pure boxing fight  
PaulBlakeTSU : 7/24/2017 2:17 pm : link
Mayweather should be a monumental favorite a la Tyson/Douglas. However, I do see one way in which Macgregor can catch Mayweather.

Floyd is a defensive genius and machine. But he has been programmed for a life of defending against and reacting only to punches. He only has to worry about what the other fighter is doing from the waist up (notwithstanding footwork and positioning).

I'm sure there are stipulations in the contract that Macgregor can't use MMA moves.

However, what would stop Macgregor from using his legs to pretend to throw kicks?

Mayweather is so unfamiliar with that kind of gesturing in the ring, that I could see the fast-twitch actions by Macgregor's legs catching Floyd off-guard, or at least causing him to flinch or drop his hands for a split second whereby maybe Macgregor can then sneak in a knockout punch.

I think it would demonstrate complete lack of sportsmanship, but with this much money on the line, who knows what Macgregor would resort to.
that dirty tactic  
PaulBlakeTSU : 7/24/2017 2:19 pm : link
would also lead to a controversy, create more spectacle, and set up for another monumental payday for both of them.
RE: in a pure boxing fight  
Gmen1982 : 7/24/2017 2:19 pm : link
In comment 13537686 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
Mayweather should be a monumental favorite a la Tyson/Douglas. However, I do see one way in which Macgregor can catch Mayweather.

Floyd is a defensive genius and machine. But he has been programmed for a life of defending against and reacting only to punches. He only has to worry about what the other fighter is doing from the waist up (notwithstanding footwork and positioning).

I'm sure there are stipulations in the contract that Macgregor can't use MMA moves.

However, what would stop Macgregor from using his legs to pretend to throw kicks?

Mayweather is so unfamiliar with that kind of gesturing in the ring, that I could see the fast-twitch actions by Macgregor's legs catching Floyd off-guard, or at least causing him to flinch or drop his hands for a split second whereby maybe Macgregor can then sneak in a knockout punch.

I think it would demonstrate complete lack of sportsmanship, but with this much money on the line, who knows what Macgregor would resort to.


I didn't think about him faking a kick. That would be great.
RE: in a pure boxing fight  
larryflower37 : 7/24/2017 2:26 pm : link
In comment 13537686 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
Mayweather should be a monumental favorite a la Tyson/Douglas. However, I do see one way in which Macgregor can catch Mayweather.

Floyd is a defensive genius and machine. But he has been programmed for a life of defending against and reacting only to punches. He only has to worry about what the other fighter is doing from the waist up (notwithstanding footwork and positioning).

I'm sure there are stipulations in the contract that Macgregor can't use MMA moves.

However, what would stop Macgregor from using his legs to pretend to throw kicks?

Mayweather is so unfamiliar with that kind of gesturing in the ring, that I could see the fast-twitch actions by Macgregor's legs catching Floyd off-guard, or at least causing him to flinch or drop his hands for a split second whereby maybe Macgregor can then sneak in a knockout punch.

I think it would demonstrate complete lack of sportsmanship, but with this much money on the line, who knows what Macgregor would resort to.


McGregor loses half his purse if he does an MMA move not sure if that constitutes an MMA move but I can't see Mayweather getting tricked by anything at this point. I am not a fan but he doesn't get rattled and stays in his game. It's the reason he doesn't lose. Fighters have been trying to force him off his game since he started fighting.
Mike Tyson chimed in  
larryflower37 : 7/24/2017 2:28 pm : link
Quote:
"McGregor is going to get killed boxing. I got mad because I thought they were going to use MMA rules against boxing because that's what it's all about: Can the boxer beat the MMA guy? McConor [sic] put his dumba*** in a position where he's gonna get knocked out because this guy's been doing this all his life since he was a baby. McConor [sic] can't kick and grab and stuff so he won't stand much of a chance."

"McGregor took the biggest sucker rules in the history of boxing.
16-20% upside  
Dang Man : 7/24/2017 2:38 pm : link
But if you ask me the crazy part is the 6x downside for speculating on an event where the underdog will always have a puncher's chance. Those risk weighted probable payoffs are worse than roulette.
RE: As  
Giants in 07 : 7/24/2017 3:14 pm : link
In comment 13537678 mitch300 said:
Quote:
the numbers the op described you have to pay 500-600 dollars to win 1 dollar.Yeah he will most likely win. However, is anybody really going to put up a lot of cash with the risk something goes wrong.


No, if the line is -600 it's $600 to win $100

Mayweather's line has been quad digits before (-1000+) when boxing an actual boxer.
larry  
PaulBlakeTSU : 7/24/2017 3:17 pm : link
right, McGregor can't use any MMA moves (though losing half his purse would still give him a huge payday).

But is faking a kick and gesturing leg moves considered an MMA move? Perhaps they've discussed this already.

My point is, that even if Mayweather is the smartest fighter, part of his brilliance results from the thousands of hours of training and preparing for whatever his opponent would throw at him. He isn't thinking about avoiding punches-- he does it by muscle memory and instinct at this point.

But he has no experience defending against leg kicks and so he has no thorough experience facing an opponent making those movements with his legs.

It's not a matter of being smart, it's a matter of instinct and reaction. I have no idea whether Mayweather is able to not flinch or react to McGregor pretending to throw kicks.
Mayweather easy  
Carl in CT : 7/24/2017 3:22 pm : link
Go make some money. A fix can't be in. Boxing would never be the same if Floyd loses.
Repeat  
DelZotto : 7/24/2017 3:41 pm : link
Happened years ago with Ali fighting a Martial Artist, probably the most boring fight I've ever seen. Japanese guy fought the fight on his back and kicked Ali all night on the Legs, Ali was never able to land a significant blow. Decision Ali, what a waste of money that was.
I'm sure if Conor feinted with kicks or knees  
BlackLight : 7/24/2017 3:45 pm : link
the referee would step in and warn him - unsportsmanlike.

Definitely take Floyd at -600 or so. Hasn't been this good a deal in a long time.
Guys  
PaulN : 7/24/2017 4:32 pm : link
This sport, if you can even call it that anymore, is so crooked that if you lost your life savings, you would never forgive yourself, don't bet on this. Don't let these scumbags win, they are the dirt of the earth. Stay away from this, it has booby trap written all over it.
McGregor  
allstarjim : 7/24/2017 7:21 pm : link
Is the more aggressive, motivated man to win. McGregor is going to knock out Floyd Mayweather.

I'll be here to either say I told you so or take my medicine.
RE: McGregor  
BlackLight : 7/24/2017 7:48 pm : link
In comment 13537897 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Is the more aggressive, motivated man to win. McGregor is going to knock out Floyd Mayweather.

I'll be here to either say I told you so or take my medicine.


McGregor isn't especially aggressive, though. He's primarily a counterpuncher. And he throws about 40 strikes per 5 minute round.

Which is why, not only is this a bad style matchup for Conor to win, but the likelihood is that we could be looking at a dull fight. Mayweather doesn't care about making this entertaining for anyone. If he can guarantee himself the win by sitting on the ropes and doing his shoulder roll for twelve rounds, he'll do it.
RE: As  
Gatorade Dunk : 7/24/2017 8:01 pm : link
In comment 13537678 mitch300 said:
Quote:
the numbers the op described you have to pay 500-600 dollars to win 1 dollar.Yeah he will most likely win. However, is anybody really going to put up a lot of cash with the risk something goes wrong.

Well, it's to win $100, not $1. So it's basically floating $600 for a 17% return - better than your savings account by an order of magnitude - but your savings account isn't at risk for a one-off shot to the jaw.
RE: Mayweather will easily win a decission  
djm : 7/24/2017 8:09 pm : link
In comment 13537505 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
The issue is, you can't trust boxing. Whether there is a dive or the judges fix the fight.


Ding ding ding. Pun intended.
Neither one of these guys is taking a dive  
BlackLight : 7/24/2017 9:00 pm : link
I would definitely be wary of screwy judging.
On my Twitter feed  
BlackLight : 7/24/2017 9:12 pm : link
word is that someone in Vegas made $150k in moneyline bets on Conor. If he wins, that's $662,500.
who has more money to bribe the judges?  
spike : 7/24/2017 9:24 pm : link
Boxing or MMA? Because this is what this fight is all about. The two sports "fighting"
RE: who has more money to bribe the judges?  
LauderdaleMatty : 7/25/2017 8:16 am : link
In comment 13537946 spike said:
Quote:
Boxing or MMA? Because this is what this fight is all about. The two sports "fighting"


They are colluding. This fight makes Vegas and all the slimy scumbafs in both sports lots of cash. The McGregor dan boys don't want no to admit it but he's a middling MMA fighter. He's of going to able to eve make or back to 145 and the top guys ate 155 will rag doll him.

Nate Diaz is a borderline guy in that division and he got choked out and barely won the second fight. Casuals and people who love his shit talking don't care that he won't ever ever ever jump in the ring w the top tier guys

The IMG-WME guys paid 4 billion for the UFC. Their goal is to make money. That's what this does. McGregor losing 2-3 in a row hurts them.

They make 500 million to maybe 750 million back on this it's great. Conor winning or losing doesn't mean jack to them or Conor. Both get what they'd really want. $$$. Meanwhile they let Fergeson and Knabib fight for the title. Protecting McGregor who most Mikey cousins beat either of hose guys.

Conor comes back and fights Nate again. At 155. They they build up the winners. It's about the money. Floyd and Conor love each other. All this shit is a show. Anyone buying this fight is why Madoff was so successful. Suckers
There is always the chance that the money goes one way  
mdthedream : 7/25/2017 12:38 pm : link
and the fight is fixed. There is no guarantee in fighting. Smart money would easily bet on Mayweather that alone would scare me. That said if you don't care about losing it that its a great bet.
If it was 4 oz gloves...  
Matt G : 7/25/2017 4:59 pm : link
McGregor starches Floyd...
RE: If it was 4 oz gloves...  
Mike in NJ : 7/25/2017 8:16 pm : link
In comment 13538764 Matt G said:
Quote:
McGregor starches Floyd...


They could fight bare knuckles and it wouldn't make a difference. Guys that have trained their whole lives as boxers can't get a clean shot on Floyd, an overrated MMA fighter sure as hell won't be able too.
RE: If it was 4 oz gloves...  
LauderdaleMatty : 7/25/2017 11:42 pm : link
In comment 13538764 Matt G said:
Quote:
McGregor starches Floyd...


But it's not. And maybe not then. You think Mayweather in a 15 round fight will lunge in? Zero kicks and two counter punchers. Still waiting for your boy to step up and fight the top tier 155 guysike you said he would. It was never his plan. He's one of the saviest guys but hes got no ground game. I don't blame him one bit for this fight but my guess is as I posted post Mayweather he and Nate rematch. He wants nothing to do w Ferguesson, Khabib or any other guy w good wrestling. He will nEver be able to cut to 145 again so it's going to be Nate for a big purse. Like Bisbing who is just as much avoiding the top comp. UCF wants twitter wars and hype. Not 1vs 2.
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