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NFT: State of the NY Mets

Shecky : 8/8/2017 11:05 am
Lots of talk about how this is a ruined season by injuries - and it gets under my skin hearing that over and over again, with the assumption that if we stay the course next year they will win a World Series.

1) How many years have we said/heard "oh, if it weren't for the injuries ____" followed by "next year, IF we are healthy..."
2) When you rely on players who haven't proven to be durable, guess what you have to deal with? Injuries. So as long as things remain the same - why would you expect a different outcome?

The prior issue fans had with the Mets Front Office and ownership was that they were "too cheap"
1) Payroll isn't top in baseball nor close - but ownership has clearly spent a ton of money. Enough to win it all? No
2) Enough to contend with the Dodgers? No - but the Dodgers aren't dominating with their money. They are winning with Seager, Turner, Taylor and Bellinger (total cost about $15mm)and despite A Gon ($21mm)

The problem with the current construction of the team is relying on unreliable players. The result? Way more players are producing below their pay grade than above.

Who on the team is outperforming? DeGrom and Conforto, maybe Bruce.
Who is under performing? Walker, Cabrera, Cespedes, Wright, Matz, Harvey, Gselllman, Salas, etc.

Of those underperforming - who can you say with certainty will outperform their salary next year? There folks, is th eproblem with the 2017 Mets. It's not injury.
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Barwis  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 12:15 pm : link
should go regardless if he's connected to the injuries or not. The optics are bad and what are the "success" stories? Dom is again fat, what are we pointing to as "well Barwis DID help..."? See ya!
.  
arcarsenal : 8/8/2017 12:19 pm : link
I think after the WS run, the FO basically said "okay, we've got a team here that looks like they can win it all.. "

KC went to the WS and lost in 2014 only to return and win in 2015. So, if you're the Mets, you say "well.. why can't we do the same thing?"

From that vantage point, I understood the logic of going into 2016 and saying "alright, Syndergaard has arrived - Harvey is back, we've got Matz in the fold now, deGrom has been great, our closer is in place. Let's get Cespedes back here and do it again"

But then 2016 happened, and I think the FO said - well, we had a lot of injuries - if not for that, we may not have needed to play in that play-in game to begin with. So, let's get these guys healthy for 2017 and show the Nationals who the best team in this division really is.

Faulty approach, probably.

Now - the whole definition of insanity thing starts to apply if we retain this same approach for 2018. I think the philosophy has to change. However, we also have to take into account what is or isn't within the realm of possibilities. Some of the injury-prone guys (i.e. Harvey) make little sense to deal because they basically have no trade value.

So, the goal should be to get a little more athletic, add guys with stronger track records of being on the field 150+ games per year, strengthen the pen, try to find a starter who can give us what Colon had been providing. Infuse the youth and have Conforto, Rosario, and (hopefully) Smith start to form the new core of the team. We have flexibility - I think a good deal of roster turnover is possible. How much? I don't know.

But I think the same old, same old probably isn't going to work at this point.
The Mets have no real  
pjcas18 : 8/8/2017 12:22 pm : link
choice IMO for 2018, but to redo 2017 (assuming no additional or new setbacks for the rotation).

They almost have to go into 2018 with:

Thor
degrom
Matz
Harvey
Wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo

as the rotation.

none of the ones you'd want to trade (Harvey or Wheeler) have value and Gsellman/Lugo are pitching themselves into less value than Harvey or Wheeler.

Best you can hope for is a fa starting pitcher, but who?

Darvish?
Arieta?

You're likely looking at the same rotation,

But where the Mets can redo 2017 the right way is by adding bullpen arms, getting a CF and a 3B.

Rosario and Smith add youth, maybe Cecchini breaks out the final couple months and gets a shot at 3B or 2B, but either way, the only changes I'd make to the 2018 Mets are minor additions.

Then after 2018 if things go sideways again I blow it out, try and lure Machado to NYM and rebuild.
Really  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 12:24 pm : link
surprised how bad Cecchini has been. I don't see a starting 3b in the system unless you are a believer in Wilmer. Cecchini isn't one and nor is TJ Rivera.
RE: .  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 12:25 pm : link
In comment 13552730 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I think after the WS run, the FO basically said "okay, we've got a team here that looks like they can win it all.. "

KC went to the WS and lost in 2014 only to return and win in 2015. So, if you're the Mets, you say "well.. why can't we do the same thing?"

From that vantage point, I understood the logic of going into 2016 and saying "alright, Syndergaard has arrived - Harvey is back, we've got Matz in the fold now, deGrom has been great, our closer is in place. Let's get Cespedes back here and do it again"

But then 2016 happened, and I think the FO said - well, we had a lot of injuries - if not for that, we may not have needed to play in that play-in game to begin with. So, let's get these guys healthy for 2017 and show the Nationals who the best team in this division really is.

Faulty approach, probably.

Now - the whole definition of insanity thing starts to apply if we retain this same approach for 2018. I think the philosophy has to change. However, we also have to take into account what is or isn't within the realm of possibilities. Some of the injury-prone guys (i.e. Harvey) make little sense to deal because they basically have no trade value.

So, the goal should be to get a little more athletic, add guys with stronger track records of being on the field 150+ games per year, strengthen the pen, try to find a starter who can give us what Colon had been providing. Infuse the youth and have Conforto, Rosario, and (hopefully) Smith start to form the new core of the team. We have flexibility - I think a good deal of roster turnover is possible. How much? I don't know.

But I think the same old, same old probably isn't going to work at this point.



I'd  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 12:25 pm : link
be beyond shocked if Darvish is even on the Mets radar. Either he's great and the Dodgers/Yankees go to war for him at 150+ million or he's not and the Mets stay away.
.  
arcarsenal : 8/8/2017 12:27 pm : link
I do think pitching-wise, we're going to have to go into 2018 with a similar rotation simply because there's really nothing we can do with guys like Harvey, Wheeler or Matz. We can't really deal them unless we want to sell at their lowest value (which would be foolish)

But the lineup will have spots where we can upgrade/turn things over and we have money coming off the books.

The bullpen is a big deal. We can't keep sending turds like Edgin, Salas, Robles, Ramirez, etc. out there. Beefing up the pen should be a major priority. You can call them a crapshoot until the cows come home - but I think the Mets need to be more aggressive in finding quality MRP's.
RE: The Mets have no real  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 12:27 pm : link
In comment 13552737 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
choice IMO for 2018, but to redo 2017 (assuming no additional or new setbacks for the rotation).

They almost have to go into 2018 with:

Thor
degrom
Matz
Harvey
Wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo

as the rotation.

none of the ones you'd want to trade (Harvey or Wheeler) have value and Gsellman/Lugo are pitching themselves into less value than Harvey or Wheeler.

Best you can hope for is a fa starting pitcher, but who?

Darvish?
Arieta?

You're likely looking at the same rotation,

But where the Mets can redo 2017 the right way is by adding bullpen arms, getting a CF and a 3B.

Rosario and Smith add youth, maybe Cecchini breaks out the final couple months and gets a shot at 3B or 2B, but either way, the only changes I'd make to the 2018 Mets are minor additions.

Then after 2018 if things go sideways again I blow it out, try and lure Machado to NYM and rebuild.




RE: Really  
pjcas18 : 8/8/2017 12:28 pm : link
In comment 13552740 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
surprised how bad Cecchini has been. I don't see a starting 3b in the system unless you are a believer in Wilmer. Cecchini isn't one and nor is TJ Rivera.


I was thinking Flores at 2B. And I'd leave Flo in there for 150+ games. lefties, righties, don't care. His splits vs righties this year show the Mets FO/MGR are clueless about Flores and wasted years of his career yanking him around the diamond and platooning him.

Flores and Mejia (different regimes?) were two of the most misused Mets in my lifetime.

RE: I'd  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 12:28 pm : link
In comment 13552743 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
be beyond shocked if Darvish is even on the Mets radar. Either he's great and the Dodgers/Yankees go to war for him at 150+ million or he's not and the Mets stay away.


Less than zero chance he is even in the conversation.
RE: RE: Really  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 12:40 pm : link
In comment 13552749 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13552740 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


surprised how bad Cecchini has been. I don't see a starting 3b in the system unless you are a believer in Wilmer. Cecchini isn't one and nor is TJ Rivera.



I was thinking Flores at 2B. And I'd leave Flo in there for 150+ games. lefties, righties, don't care. His splits vs righties this year show the Mets FO/MGR are clueless about Flores and wasted years of his career yanking him around the diamond and platooning him.

Flores and Mejia (different regimes?) were two of the most misused Mets in my lifetime.


No inside information but I get the feeling they view Wilmer as a super sub vs. a regular. Not saying I agree or disagree.
Mets may have some $$$$  
brunswick : 8/8/2017 12:41 pm : link
to spend this offseason but there is NO way they are giving a big contract to a SP. It's not happening.
RE: RE: RE: Really  
pjcas18 : 8/8/2017 12:42 pm : link
In comment 13552772 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 13552749 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 13552740 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


surprised how bad Cecchini has been. I don't see a starting 3b in the system unless you are a believer in Wilmer. Cecchini isn't one and nor is TJ Rivera.



I was thinking Flores at 2B. And I'd leave Flo in there for 150+ games. lefties, righties, don't care. His splits vs righties this year show the Mets FO/MGR are clueless about Flores and wasted years of his career yanking him around the diamond and platooning him.

Flores and Mejia (different regimes?) were two of the most misused Mets in my lifetime.




No inside information but I get the feeling they view Wilmer as a super sub vs. a regular. Not saying I agree or disagree.


I'd be fine with Wilmer in that role if the guy starting at all 4 infield positions was better than Wilmer.

eventually that's best case, Wilmer backing up all 4 IF spots and PH, that means the infield is solid IMO.
They need to find out what they have  
spike : 8/8/2017 12:46 pm : link
In Nimmo, Cecchini, flores and even TJ

But with Collins at the helm, they will never play enough over the vets.
In  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 12:47 pm : link
fairness Cecchini has been so bad he hasn't earned a look. I mean, he should get one because the season is over but on merit he hasn't earned one Collins or not.
Will someone learn to play 3b?  
spike : 8/8/2017 12:48 pm : link
Will Walker be a good lad and transition to third?

Or Cabrera will be our starting 3b in April 2018
Nimmo  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 12:48 pm : link
absolutely should be playing more. Is he a viable #4 or #5? Or filler?
Good things for the Mets is  
spike : 8/8/2017 12:52 pm : link
Harper will probably opt for free agency after 2018.
Zimmerman will fall back to Earth from Mvp candidate. Gio gonzalez and Strasburgs arms will fall off. Maybe Scherzer too
So their window will be closing fast.

Then we will have to contend with the Braves for many years
RE: Nimmo  
spike : 8/8/2017 12:53 pm : link
In comment 13552789 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
absolutely should be playing more. Is he a viable #4 or #5? Or filler?


Just like TJ, we never knew what he had until injuries forced the issue
I would sign Lance Lynn in the off season  
CMicks3110 : 8/8/2017 1:23 pm : link
They need a durable reliable innings eater a la colon. sign Lynn for 6 years 85 mil and have him be your #3, then I'd resign reed and Bruce and hope for health from the other starters, bounce back from ces and progression from Rosario smith and conforto
I would love Arrieta  
allstarjim : 8/8/2017 1:29 pm : link
Even over Darvish.

But I think a more realistic solution for next year would be Lance Lynn. Will he leave the Cardinals, though? I think he's the kind of reliable, 200 innings of quality pitching the Mets need in their rotation. Is it going to push someone out of the rotation like Wheeler, Matz, Gsellman, or Lugo? Yes. But they need that kind of guy, badly.

You go: Noah, deGrom, Lynn, Harvey, Wheeler, and if you want, open the season with a 6-man rotation, that will hopefully keep some innings down and keep these guys fresh.

I think AsCab is the 3B next year, because he'll be cheaper than Walker. You can let AsCab walk for $2 million, or keep him to play third for an additional $6.5 million. I don't think that's a difficult decision, and I think he has the best glove for third base. I think Neil Walker is gone.

Sign Lynn  
spike : 8/8/2017 3:59 pm : link
Push Gsellman and Montero back to LV.

Lugo goes to the pen as the superstar reliever

Wheeler and Matz duke it out for the fifth starter spot.
Glad to see  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 8:18 pm : link
The real Flexen finally showed up
Not happening  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 8:36 pm : link
But Beltre would fit in real well
RE: Not happening  
spike : 8/8/2017 8:51 pm : link
In comment 13553353 Shecky said:
Quote:
But Beltre would fit in real well


He's 38 years old..
RE: RE: Not happening  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 8:53 pm : link
In comment 13553367 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13553353 Shecky said:


Quote:


But Beltre would fit in real well



He's 38 years old..


Too young, good point ;)
Joey Gallo however  
spike : 8/8/2017 8:53 pm : link
is only 23..

I'll settle for MOustakas
..  
DanMetroMan : 8/8/2017 9:07 pm : link
‪Justin Dunn hurt too... unbelievable #Mets‬

Scratched due to elbow tightness
TJ every pitcher  
spike : 8/8/2017 9:30 pm : link
before they even put on the minors uniform
RE: TJ every pitcher  
Shecky : 8/8/2017 9:48 pm : link
In comment 13553413 spike said:
Quote:
before they even put on the minors uniform

Tried that approach with last years first rounder...
Why are Walker and Cabrera playing?  
Vanzetti : 8/9/2017 8:06 am : link
Flores should be starting. Ditto for TJ when he gets back. Bring Cecchini up.

Is Sandy under the delusion that he is going to swing some kind of significant deal for these two broken-down players?

Let's find out what we have with Flores so it doesn't turn into another Justin Turner.


Flores has the stroke to hit .300 and 25+ HR if he can if he can can become more selective. And, yeah, baseball history is filled with guys who never did become more selective. But there are also Turners and Murphys. So let's not make that mistake again. Especially to give ABs to guys like Walker and Cabrera who are both on the slippery slope.
Cab should stay on the bench in favor of Flores  
spike : 8/9/2017 8:11 am : link
And wait for next season as a Met
Cabrera and Walker clear waivers  
Vanzetti : 8/9/2017 8:32 am : link
no surprise there

but to me, this really seems to be about saving money by getting some team to take on their salaries. Mets are not getting anything significant back .

A franchise must show respect to vets  
Shecky : 8/9/2017 8:42 am : link
Especially impending FA vets who earned .the respect.
There's plenty of time for the kids to play, there's still over a quarter of a season to play. Another 7-10 days won't stunt anyone's future...
Shecky  
DanMetroMan : 8/9/2017 9:24 am : link
any word on Dunn yet?
RE: A franchise must show respect to vets  
DanMetroMan : 8/9/2017 9:24 am : link
In comment 13553572 Shecky said:
Quote:
Especially impending FA vets who earned .the respect.
There's plenty of time for the kids to play, there's still over a quarter of a season to play. Another 7-10 days won't stunt anyone's future...


Fans overlook this fact. Good luck signing future vets if you shit on them on the way out the door.
RE: Shecky  
Shecky : 8/9/2017 9:45 am : link
In comment 13553615 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
any word on Dunn yet?

I avoid speculating on health. Assumption is precautionary - but it's the Mets...

Speaking of Dunn, something very near and dear to my heart.
A great cause he is heavily involved in - ( New Window )
BP  
DanMetroMan : 8/9/2017 9:53 am : link
mentions this guy as one to monitor
Link - ( New Window )
RE: BP  
Shecky : 8/9/2017 10:02 am : link
In comment 13553656 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
mentions this guy as one to monitor Link - ( New Window )


You throw strikes in the GCL, it stands out
..  
DanMetroMan : 8/9/2017 10:17 am : link
Medina sounded quasi interesting based on the SB's until I read the note about his speed.
Link - ( New Window )
cesar puello  
feelflows : 8/9/2017 3:24 pm : link
called up by the Angels (in former Mets news)
RE: cesar puello  
Shecky : 8/9/2017 3:50 pm : link
In comment 13554118 feelflows said:
Quote:
called up by the Angels (in former Mets news)

Cue phantom back injury in
3... 2... 1...
RE: RE: cesar puello  
feelflows : 8/9/2017 6:40 pm : link
In comment 13554147 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 13554118 feelflows said:


Quote:


called up by the Angels (in former Mets news)


Cue phantom back injury in
3... 2... 1...


RE: RE: cesar puello  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2017 6:55 pm : link
In comment 13554147 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 13554118 feelflows said:


Quote:


called up by the Angels (in former Mets news)


Cue phantom back injury in
3... 2... 1...


He's played 1 game. He'd be tied for 4th on the Mets in stolen bases.

He was on fire in the PCL before being called up.

He'd be perfect on the Mets even short-term.
Should get chatty here soon  
Shecky : 8/9/2017 9:52 pm : link
.
Twitter  
Ten Ton Hammer : 8/9/2017 10:02 pm : link
Jerry Crasnick‏
@jcrasnick

Jay Bruce is heading to #Indians in a trade. The #Yankees were also involved in Bruce trade talks before #Mets dealt him to Cleveland.
Once again not kicking in any $  
Eric on Li : 8/9/2017 10:07 pm : link
Joel Sherman‏Verified account @Joelsherman1 3m3 minutes ago
More
Bruce had roughly $5M owed still this season and #Indians are taking on all of it. #mets

I assume there's a Drew Smith-esque prospect packing his bag right now.
why cant  
spike : 8/9/2017 10:20 pm : link
Donald trump or another billionaire in NYC buy the Mets?
Duda Gives Shout-Out to 7-Line Army  
pganut : 8/10/2017 11:55 am : link
Below in The Player's Tribune
A Shout-Out to the 7 Line Army - Lucas Duda - ( New Window )
RE: why cant  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 12:00 pm : link
In comment 13554468 spike said:
Quote:
Donald trump or another billionaire in NYC buy the Mets?


I read a couple years ago when selling the Mets was a hot topic that Mark Cuban was interested, but from what I recall it's tough to break into ownership and it was unlikely Cuban would have been approved.

I don't care if the Wilpons sell or not, I just hope they do a few things like get a local AAA team, stop spitefully refusing to trade with the Yankees, and if they have any influence over Sandy in any area beyond LT contracts then remove that influence (or replace Sandy and ideally with someone who won't be influenced beyond normal ownership influence).
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