Lots of talk about how this is a ruined season by injuries - and it gets under my skin hearing that over and over again, with the assumption that if we stay the course next year they will win a World Series.
1) How many years have we said/heard "oh, if it weren't for the injuries ____" followed by "next year, IF we are healthy..."
2) When you rely on players who haven't proven to be durable, guess what you have to deal with? Injuries. So as long as things remain the same - why would you expect a different outcome?
The prior issue fans had with the Mets Front Office and ownership was that they were "too cheap"
1) Payroll isn't top in baseball nor close - but ownership has clearly spent a ton of money. Enough to win it all? No
2) Enough to contend with the Dodgers? No - but the Dodgers aren't dominating with their money. They are winning with Seager, Turner, Taylor and Bellinger (total cost about $15mm)and despite A Gon ($21mm)
The problem with the current construction of the team is relying on unreliable players. The result? Way more players are producing below their pay grade than above.
Who on the team is outperforming? DeGrom and Conforto, maybe Bruce.
Who is under performing? Walker, Cabrera, Cespedes, Wright, Matz, Harvey, Gselllman, Salas, etc.
Of those underperforming - who can you say with certainty will outperform their salary next year? There folks, is th eproblem with the 2017 Mets. It's not injury.
so it's sort of semantics to say under-performance, not injury is the 2017 Mets problem.
though I completely agree with you about saying "if they're healthy in 2018 they'll win".
It reminded me of Red's speech about hope in Shawshank Redemption I posted on the other thread:
Problem is the Mets core should be competitive with the non-injury prone players.
A rotation of Thor, deGrom, Gsellman, Lugo, Harvey, Wheeler, Matz (in any order) should be competitive. Familia should be a solid closer.
The Mets need to add pieces, but by no means do they need to burn it down. Yet.
or on the other hand the hope may drive me insane.
Losing Noah and Familia were huge blows to the team, and neither of them had significant injury histories.
Yes, Prior to last year, Walker didn't have a significant injury history. Neither did Cespedes. You had hoped those years were one-offs. Now they both have had significant injuries in back-to-back years.
It's mostly been really bad luck with pitching. I think you can say that the injury history you're referring to is relevant with guys like d'Arnaud, Wheeler, and Matz. But there's no way any team can adequately prepare for losing 4/5ths of their rotation, their closer, and best, biggest bat in the lineup for a significant portion of the season and expect to compete. And I wouldn't say that's the fault of Alderson for relying too heavy on guys with a lot of injury history. It's been bad luck.
I think you do have to re-evaluate how much you want to count on Wheeler and Matz, however. Harvey I'm fine with keeping as he has one more year of control anyway, hopefully he can re-establish himself and we at least know he's been there before. But this season we had to have Noah and Cespedes being the stars that they are and we just didn't get that. It's unfortunate and you just have to hope the luck turns in your favor next year.
If I told you my starting lineup had an average age of 32, would you surprised or prepared for injuries?
Saying injuries are the problem, we'll get them next year. Well, sounds like every other year to me.
Do we keep Bruce and play MC in CF?
Do we keep Walker around? Should we be worried about his back?
Does Reyes stick around as an option for 3b?
Are Wilmer or TJ options to start at 2b or 3b?
If no Bruce, should we pursue Lorenzo Cain to play CF and move MC to right?
Is there any way to upgrade TDA?
I still believe there is enough starting pitching here, but if they really want to spend, a 3rd starter to slot in after Thor and Jake would look very nice. Otherwise I feel that a few of Lugo, Matz, Wheeler, Gsellman and Harvey can figure it out and fill out the back end.
My biggest question, does DW want to manage and would the Mets ever think of letting him immediately transition as such.
If I told you my starting lineup had an average age of 32, would you surprised or prepared for injuries?
Saying injuries are the problem, we'll get them next year. Well, sounds like every other year to me.
Thor and Familia had no injury history before this year.
I think shit like Thor refusing an MRI is more to blame than Thor throwing 100.
Familia was probably or possibly rushed back.
If the Mets rotation was 32 years old then I'd agree with you.
But most fans knew coming in to the season the Mets success depended on the health of the starting rotation and the success of the bullpen.
To me what happened to Thor and Familia is not predictable.
The fact Salas, Smoker, Edgin, etc. sucked was.
I fix the bullpen, add a 3B and maybe a CF and yes, no other way around it, hope for health in the starting rotation.
After 2018 you can "blow it up" if everyone is hurt again.
I don't believe the volume of injuries was predictable or expected, it's an anomaly.
and the Mets WILL get younger with Rosario and Smith replacing Reyes and Duda and losing Walker and maybe Cabrera.
the key is to have veteran depth to back up the younger starters. I feel the Mets built a roster exactly the opposite.
Mets need one more position player to build with. If they need to trade a pitcher then do it. I liked the idea of Nick Senzel from Cinci or Brian Dozier from KC
Front office needs to take a long look in the mirror. There's a lot more to building a championship organization than home runs and fastballs.
You put Cespedes in LF and take advantage of his cannon arm.
A CF who can't really play CF and cover that ground puts pressure on the other OF positions to and weakens the whole D.
And you trade Jay Bruce. You sign a CF who can play the position and take pressure off everyone else. Cain would be optimal
This is a no-brained.
You put Cespedes in LF and take advantage of his cannon arm.
A CF who can't really play CF and cover that ground puts pressure on the other OF positions to and weakens the whole D.
And you trade Jay Bruce. You sign a CF who can play the position and take pressure off everyone else. Cain would be optimal
This is a no-brained.
Agree with all the above, with the only exception being Cain since CF defense tends to fall off a cliff in the mid-30s. But point remains, solidify the OF, let the young IF grow together, and hoard as much pitching as possible.
Now, do I think the injuries are all just coincidence? No - I've said many times that I think there's some correlation between the training methods being used with these players and the fact that injuries seem to be handled incorrectly from jump street in a lot of cases. Players refusing MRI's or saying they're fine and that being enough, etc..
It could also be an organizational error in the types of players they're seeking.
I don't expect the Mets to ever be close to 100% healthy because this seems to happen almost every season. But I do think if the Mets rotation was healthy and Familia was 100% that we'd be in the wild card race right now.
Do you see the irony in this statement? I do.
Now, do I think the injuries are all just coincidence? No - I've said many times that I think there's some correlation between the training methods being used with these players and the fact that injuries seem to be handled incorrectly from jump street in a lot of cases. Players refusing MRI's or saying they're fine and that being enough, etc..
It could also be an organizational error in the types of players they're seeking.
I don't expect the Mets to ever be close to 100% healthy because this seems to happen almost every season. But I do think if the Mets rotation was healthy and Familia was 100% that we'd be in the wild card race right now.
This is speculation, but Familia has logged more relief innings than anyone in baseball the past few seasons. Pitching in a thin BP almost definitely had some contribution to him getting hurt. Harvey has been a bad luck case. Thor and Cespedes are bad luck but also possibly an indictment on the organization's offseason planning.
He then decided he wanted to throw hare more often.
And, oh, this.. from Tom House of all people
When asked to estimate the chances of Syndergaard getting injured, House said, Theres a 60 to 63 percent likelihood. Im sure he feels great today, Im sure hes throwing well. But what hes done is the worst-case scenario.
pitching guru said what? - ( New Window )
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Well, I don't see how you can dismiss the injuries. Seems silly. That's why we don't have our best pitcher right now. That's why we don't have our closer. That's why Matt Harvey hasn't been the same since 2015. That's why Wheeler has never really been able to get his career off the ground. That's why our best hitter winds up on the shelf every few weeks.
Do you see the irony in this statement? I do.
Yes or no... if the players above were healthy would the Mets be better positioned in the standings right now?
I've made my unpopular opinion on him clear for a long time lol
But I am sure you will agree with on the point that coming into the season questionable health was the most likely culprit of a down season?
Will delete thread if requested.
I've made my unpopular opinion on him clear for a long time lol
You think he's going to milk it now that he got his 100 mill?
He then decided he wanted to throw hare more often.
And, oh, this.. from Tom House of all people
When asked to estimate the chances of Syndergaard getting injured, House said, Theres a 60 to 63 percent likelihood. Im sure he feels great today, Im sure hes throwing well. But what hes done is the worst-case scenario. pitching guru said what? - ( New Window )
What were the odds of Nolan Ryan being injured?
My theory is just that, an unfounded theory, but I think his refusal to have the MRI with the biceps issue led to the torn lat. Bodies tend to overcompensate, purely my opinion, but his injury is as much on the front office as it is on the fact he throws hard.
Will delete thread if requested.
No way. good discussion.
1. Thor staying healthy is the most important thing. You put him and degrom at the top of a rotation and i'll take my chances.
2. Sign a #3 veteran starter that you can count on for 200 innings. Does it need to be a potential ace like Darvish? No, but they absolutely have to find a guy that they can count on to eat 200 innings and post an ERA in the mid 3s.
3. I trust Lugo, Matz, Harvey, Wheeler to fill out #4-5. Maybe one gets dealt in ST, but we need to be of the mindset that we need 7-8 quality starters in our organization next year... plus i'd rather not dump these guys for pennies on the dollar.
4. Trust Rosario and Smith at 1b and SS. Cabrera can take 2b or 3b. I'd sign a 2b or 3b - dont trust Walker to stay healthy, otherwise i'd keep him (still cant believe his market value is somehow ~$15 million - baseball's pricing model makes no sense)
5. Re-sign Bruce. He's simply a better ballplayer IMO than Cespedes. Conforto can man CF for another year or two. He's a young man, you put him in a corner in ~4 years.
6. Catcher probably needs an upgrade.
7. Need a middle reliever... maybe one of your young starters (Wheeler?) gets you a good one.
All I am saying is that regardless of how we got here, the injuries are the main reason why the Mets are not in contention to be playing in October right now.
So - the next question is, should the FO consider changing their roster construction approach? I've said yes to this a few times and believe quite a few things need to be changed.
I don't think the answer is "let's just get these guys healthy and try again next year"
What were the odds of Nolan Ryan being injured?
Not sure if that was a joke or not, but I'll assume a coincidence. If coincidence, there is a tremendous history of Tom House and Nolan Ryan.
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I was building a team on guys throwing near 100 mph - would you surprised or prepared for injuries?
If I told you my starting lineup had an average age of 32, would you surprised or prepared for injuries?
Saying injuries are the problem, we'll get them next year. Well, sounds like every other year to me.
Thor and Familia had no injury history before this year.
I think shit like Thor refusing an MRI is more to blame than Thor throwing 100.
Familia was probably or possibly rushed back.
If the Mets rotation was 32 years old then I'd agree with you.
But most fans knew coming in to the season the Mets success depended on the health of the starting rotation and the success of the bullpen.
To me what happened to Thor and Familia is not predictable.
The fact Salas, Smoker, Edgin, etc. sucked was.
I fix the bullpen, add a 3B and maybe a CF and yes, no other way around it, hope for health in the starting rotation.
After 2018 you can "blow it up" if everyone is hurt again.
I don't believe the volume of injuries was predictable or expected, it's an anomaly.
and the Mets WILL get younger with Rosario and Smith replacing Reyes and Duda and losing Walker and maybe Cabrera.
Agree with just about all of these points.
But to think Thor, Wheeler, Harvey, Lugo, Matz, Gsellman, and Familia would all miss significant time is not normal injury expectations.
deGrom is the only starter to not suffer an injury (yet) this season. 6 of the top 7 starters spent significant DL time, and that's not all injury prone players having injuries.
I don't know what it is, but it's like blaming the Giants trainers for them being the most injured team during the Coughlin era. Was it the trainer? Not sure, but if there is a scapegoat here, then scapegoat and replace them.
All I am saying is that regardless of how we got here, the injuries are the main reason why the Mets are not in contention to be playing in October right now.
So - the next question is, should the FO consider changing their roster construction approach? I've said yes to this a few times and believe quite a few things need to be changed.
I don't think the answer is "let's just get these guys healthy and try again next year"
Arc, you said it better than I could articulate it.
Transitivity though - If A (roster) equals B (injuries). And B eqals C (Shitty W/L record). Then A equals C.
I don't know what it is, but it's like blaming the Giants trainers for them being the most injured team during the Coughlin era. Was it the trainer? [/quote]
First time on BBI PJ? Welcome aboard ;)
A big market team should be able to afford a Premier Pitcher's Big Contract, and still be able to buy a Big Bat in the FA Market.
Implementing that Concept proved to be "difficult" with the likes of Harvey, Wheeler, Thor and Matz all having various issues, some self-inflicted. How did these kids make it all the way thru the minors without learning how to make 100 pitches cover 7 or 8 innings ??
Now we're faced with Arb Year Contracts for pitchers that haven't really proven anything. I want Pitchers that can think on the mound, like Pedro Martinez did in his later years. He couldn't throw it by you anymore....but he could still make you look like fool.
If the new 3B has any pop and can play decently down there, if its Cabrera at second hitting 18-20 and being serviceable, if your new catcher can change opponents' base-running habits and handle the staff, and you're lucky with injuries, I think the Mets contend in 2018. Don't believe you have to break the bank.
I've made my unpopular opinion on him clear for a long time lol
I don't see how this bears out unless you happen to believe he has decided to fake a bunch of injuries.
I agree that this team isn't much. The front office gambled on a strategy. They lost. It appears they (and we) have concluded it's time to move on from the last-hurrah veterans and built around young studs.
Now, if only they had a bunch of young studs.
KC went to the WS and lost in 2014 only to return and win in 2015. So, if you're the Mets, you say "well.. why can't we do the same thing?"
From that vantage point, I understood the logic of going into 2016 and saying "alright, Syndergaard has arrived - Harvey is back, we've got Matz in the fold now, deGrom has been great, our closer is in place. Let's get Cespedes back here and do it again"
But then 2016 happened, and I think the FO said - well, we had a lot of injuries - if not for that, we may not have needed to play in that play-in game to begin with. So, let's get these guys healthy for 2017 and show the Nationals who the best team in this division really is.
Faulty approach, probably.
Now - the whole definition of insanity thing starts to apply if we retain this same approach for 2018. I think the philosophy has to change. However, we also have to take into account what is or isn't within the realm of possibilities. Some of the injury-prone guys (i.e. Harvey) make little sense to deal because they basically have no trade value.
So, the goal should be to get a little more athletic, add guys with stronger track records of being on the field 150+ games per year, strengthen the pen, try to find a starter who can give us what Colon had been providing. Infuse the youth and have Conforto, Rosario, and (hopefully) Smith start to form the new core of the team. We have flexibility - I think a good deal of roster turnover is possible. How much? I don't know.
But I think the same old, same old probably isn't going to work at this point.
They almost have to go into 2018 with:
Thor
degrom
Matz
Harvey
Wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo
as the rotation.
none of the ones you'd want to trade (Harvey or Wheeler) have value and Gsellman/Lugo are pitching themselves into less value than Harvey or Wheeler.
Best you can hope for is a fa starting pitcher, but who?
Darvish?
Arieta?
You're likely looking at the same rotation,
But where the Mets can redo 2017 the right way is by adding bullpen arms, getting a CF and a 3B.
Rosario and Smith add youth, maybe Cecchini breaks out the final couple months and gets a shot at 3B or 2B, but either way, the only changes I'd make to the 2018 Mets are minor additions.
Then after 2018 if things go sideways again I blow it out, try and lure Machado to NYM and rebuild.
KC went to the WS and lost in 2014 only to return and win in 2015. So, if you're the Mets, you say "well.. why can't we do the same thing?"
From that vantage point, I understood the logic of going into 2016 and saying "alright, Syndergaard has arrived - Harvey is back, we've got Matz in the fold now, deGrom has been great, our closer is in place. Let's get Cespedes back here and do it again"
But then 2016 happened, and I think the FO said - well, we had a lot of injuries - if not for that, we may not have needed to play in that play-in game to begin with. So, let's get these guys healthy for 2017 and show the Nationals who the best team in this division really is.
Faulty approach, probably.
Now - the whole definition of insanity thing starts to apply if we retain this same approach for 2018. I think the philosophy has to change. However, we also have to take into account what is or isn't within the realm of possibilities. Some of the injury-prone guys (i.e. Harvey) make little sense to deal because they basically have no trade value.
So, the goal should be to get a little more athletic, add guys with stronger track records of being on the field 150+ games per year, strengthen the pen, try to find a starter who can give us what Colon had been providing. Infuse the youth and have Conforto, Rosario, and (hopefully) Smith start to form the new core of the team. We have flexibility - I think a good deal of roster turnover is possible. How much? I don't know.
But I think the same old, same old probably isn't going to work at this point.
But the lineup will have spots where we can upgrade/turn things over and we have money coming off the books.
The bullpen is a big deal. We can't keep sending turds like Edgin, Salas, Robles, Ramirez, etc. out there. Beefing up the pen should be a major priority. You can call them a crapshoot until the cows come home - but I think the Mets need to be more aggressive in finding quality MRP's.
They almost have to go into 2018 with:
Thor
degrom
Matz
Harvey
Wheeler/Gsellman/Lugo
as the rotation.
none of the ones you'd want to trade (Harvey or Wheeler) have value and Gsellman/Lugo are pitching themselves into less value than Harvey or Wheeler.
Best you can hope for is a fa starting pitcher, but who?
Darvish?
Arieta?
You're likely looking at the same rotation,
But where the Mets can redo 2017 the right way is by adding bullpen arms, getting a CF and a 3B.
Rosario and Smith add youth, maybe Cecchini breaks out the final couple months and gets a shot at 3B or 2B, but either way, the only changes I'd make to the 2018 Mets are minor additions.
Then after 2018 if things go sideways again I blow it out, try and lure Machado to NYM and rebuild.
I was thinking Flores at 2B. And I'd leave Flo in there for 150+ games. lefties, righties, don't care. His splits vs righties this year show the Mets FO/MGR are clueless about Flores and wasted years of his career yanking him around the diamond and platooning him.
Flores and Mejia (different regimes?) were two of the most misused Mets in my lifetime.
Less than zero chance he is even in the conversation.
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surprised how bad Cecchini has been. I don't see a starting 3b in the system unless you are a believer in Wilmer. Cecchini isn't one and nor is TJ Rivera.
I was thinking Flores at 2B. And I'd leave Flo in there for 150+ games. lefties, righties, don't care. His splits vs righties this year show the Mets FO/MGR are clueless about Flores and wasted years of his career yanking him around the diamond and platooning him.
Flores and Mejia (different regimes?) were two of the most misused Mets in my lifetime.
No inside information but I get the feeling they view Wilmer as a super sub vs. a regular. Not saying I agree or disagree.
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In comment 13552740 DanMetroMan said:
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surprised how bad Cecchini has been. I don't see a starting 3b in the system unless you are a believer in Wilmer. Cecchini isn't one and nor is TJ Rivera.
I was thinking Flores at 2B. And I'd leave Flo in there for 150+ games. lefties, righties, don't care. His splits vs righties this year show the Mets FO/MGR are clueless about Flores and wasted years of his career yanking him around the diamond and platooning him.
Flores and Mejia (different regimes?) were two of the most misused Mets in my lifetime.
No inside information but I get the feeling they view Wilmer as a super sub vs. a regular. Not saying I agree or disagree.
I'd be fine with Wilmer in that role if the guy starting at all 4 infield positions was better than Wilmer.
eventually that's best case, Wilmer backing up all 4 IF spots and PH, that means the infield is solid IMO.
But with Collins at the helm, they will never play enough over the vets.
Or Cabrera will be our starting 3b in April 2018
Zimmerman will fall back to Earth from Mvp candidate. Gio gonzalez and Strasburgs arms will fall off. Maybe Scherzer too
So their window will be closing fast.
Then we will have to contend with the Braves for many years
Just like TJ, we never knew what he had until injuries forced the issue
But I think a more realistic solution for next year would be Lance Lynn. Will he leave the Cardinals, though? I think he's the kind of reliable, 200 innings of quality pitching the Mets need in their rotation. Is it going to push someone out of the rotation like Wheeler, Matz, Gsellman, or Lugo? Yes. But they need that kind of guy, badly.
You go: Noah, deGrom, Lynn, Harvey, Wheeler, and if you want, open the season with a 6-man rotation, that will hopefully keep some innings down and keep these guys fresh.
I think AsCab is the 3B next year, because he'll be cheaper than Walker. You can let AsCab walk for $2 million, or keep him to play third for an additional $6.5 million. I don't think that's a difficult decision, and I think he has the best glove for third base. I think Neil Walker is gone.
Lugo goes to the pen as the superstar reliever
Wheeler and Matz duke it out for the fifth starter spot.
He's 38 years old..
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But Beltre would fit in real well
He's 38 years old..
Too young, good point ;)
I'll settle for MOustakas
Scratched due to elbow tightness
Tried that approach with last years first rounder...
Is Sandy under the delusion that he is going to swing some kind of significant deal for these two broken-down players?
Let's find out what we have with Flores so it doesn't turn into another Justin Turner.
Flores has the stroke to hit .300 and 25+ HR if he can if he can can become more selective. And, yeah, baseball history is filled with guys who never did become more selective. But there are also Turners and Murphys. So let's not make that mistake again. Especially to give ABs to guys like Walker and Cabrera who are both on the slippery slope.
but to me, this really seems to be about saving money by getting some team to take on their salaries. Mets are not getting anything significant back .
There's plenty of time for the kids to play, there's still over a quarter of a season to play. Another 7-10 days won't stunt anyone's future...
There's plenty of time for the kids to play, there's still over a quarter of a season to play. Another 7-10 days won't stunt anyone's future...
Fans overlook this fact. Good luck signing future vets if you shit on them on the way out the door.
I avoid speculating on health. Assumption is precautionary - but it's the Mets...
Speaking of Dunn, something very near and dear to my heart.
A great cause he is heavily involved in - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
You throw strikes in the GCL, it stands out
Link - ( New Window )
Cue phantom back injury in
3... 2... 1...
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called up by the Angels (in former Mets news)
Cue phantom back injury in
3... 2... 1...
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called up by the Angels (in former Mets news)
Cue phantom back injury in
3... 2... 1...
He's played 1 game. He'd be tied for 4th on the Mets in stolen bases.
He was on fire in the PCL before being called up.
He'd be perfect on the Mets even short-term.
@jcrasnick
Jay Bruce is heading to #Indians in a trade. The #Yankees were also involved in Bruce trade talks before #Mets dealt him to Cleveland.
More
Bruce had roughly $5M owed still this season and #Indians are taking on all of it. #mets
I assume there's a Drew Smith-esque prospect packing his bag right now.
A Shout-Out to the 7 Line Army - Lucas Duda - ( New Window )
I read a couple years ago when selling the Mets was a hot topic that Mark Cuban was interested, but from what I recall it's tough to break into ownership and it was unlikely Cuban would have been approved.
I don't care if the Wilpons sell or not, I just hope they do a few things like get a local AAA team, stop spitefully refusing to trade with the Yankees, and if they have any influence over Sandy in any area beyond LT contracts then remove that influence (or replace Sandy and ideally with someone who won't be influenced beyond normal ownership influence).