NFT: Indians close to acquiring Jay Bruce

Prospect evaluators gushed over both of them and neither one amounted to a damned thing.

In comment 13554955 Greg from LI said:

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Prospect evaluators gushed over both of them and neither one amounted to a damned thing.

And Garin was supposed to be the better one and I think he's on the verge of being a career minor leaguer if he's not destined for that already or out of baseball.

Gavin's career path has been a very weird one - he was billed as mostly glove and the main questions were whether he'd be able to hit or not. Then he turned into Chuck Knoblauch in the field but was hitting well over .300 in both Bing and LV (obviously LV you take with a grain of salt, but still...) so then it turned into "well, it looks like he actually CAN hit.. but where do you put him in the field?"

Now he seems to not be able to do either thing all that well and looks like a bust.

He could still turn it around - he's only 23. But kind of a strange arc.

vs. last year there are only 2 stats that are glaringly different - BA and BABIP (his .290 babip is 1 of only 2 regulars on the Vegas roster under .320). His Line drive percentage is the same, his fly ball is a little higher. K rate, walk rate, iso all similar to the last couple years.

Here's his season in a nutshell - he has 30 less singles than last year, same number of XBH and just about everything else. Certainly not ideal for a guy whose best skill is contact, but I'm guessing there's some bad luck in there. Also on the positive side he only has 7 errors at 2b. He's a guy who should be getting a look with the big club the rest of the season.

be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out".

The Mets are going to waste September innings on Gorzellany aren't they? #Mets

In comment 13554974 DanMetroMan said:

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be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out".

He cant be a utility backup when he only plays one position

In comment 13554979 spike said:

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In comment 13554974 DanMetroMan said: Quote: be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out". He cant be a utility backup when he only plays one position

He's played some SS this year, obviously the throwing is probably still an issue but being able to backup SS has value.

In comment 13554979 spike said:

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In comment 13554974 DanMetroMan said: Quote: be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out". He cant be a utility backup when he only plays one position

Possibly can play SS, but is stretched there. What Dan said is that if he is going to be a consistent starter at one position the only position that that is likely to be is 2B.

I hadn't really looked much into the peripherals - I wouldn't give up on him completely, either. It just seemed like last year, we were saying hey.. if the guy can find a position to call home, we might have something here. It looked like he was going to become a pretty solid contact hitter.

Haven't abandoned all hope, but this year was definitely not the type of progression we were anticipating.

can flash at SS and maybe your 3rd option at 3B. Maybe you dream big and he's a late developer like Scooter Gennett. But 2b is the spot you hope for. I'm not giving him away or giving up yet but 3b just isn't in the cards.

In comment 13554964 pjcas18 said:

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And Garin was supposed to be the better one and I think he's on the verge of being a career minor leaguer if he's not destined for that already or out of baseball.

Think he's reached that point now. He's stunk it up in AAA with three separate organizations in three years - Boston, Milwaukee last year, KC this year.

People complain about Dolan to the high heavens, but one thing about Dolan is that money is never a question. He's got plenty of faults but he'll spend whatever it takes. Wilpons clearly won't.

2 run homer

In comment 13554904 pjcas18 said:

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any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire. My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough). But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player"

I find that trying to outthink the top of the draft in any sport is usually a mistake. Dont draft for downside, draft for upside.

Im not 100% sure that was Sandy's intent on Ceech. E.g. the Nimmo pick was all upside -- the guy didnt even have a HS team. And there was nothing safe about the Dom Smith pick, as a short, low power 1B. Dom had/has to thread a needle to carve out a successful career.

I just think they were favoring stuff like hustle, eye and approach over pure 5-tool skill at the time.

Grandy for Perrin or Wang might make sense for both sides

upside was always somewhat limited. You can dream on pure tools, much harder to dream on sum of parts types.

Ryan Brodie @ItsChodezzzz
@keithlaw anything positive to say on Ryder ryan

keithlaw Retweeted Ryan Brodie
Teflon Terry can't play him over Conforto

In comment 13555053 Deej said:

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In comment 13554904 pjcas18 said: Quote: any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire. My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough). But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player" I find that trying to outthink the top of the draft in any sport is usually a mistake. Dont draft for downside, draft for upside. Im not 100% sure that was Sandy's intent on Ceech. E.g. the Nimmo pick was all upside -- the guy didnt even have a HS team. And there was nothing safe about the Dom Smith pick, as a short, low power 1B. Dom had/has to thread a needle to carve out a successful career. I just think they were favoring stuff like hustle, eye and approach over pure 5-tool skill at the time.

I had no issues with the Nimmo pick, seemed raw, but uber athletic (allegedly) and while the projection wasn't there, and he wasn't expected to go that high (most mocks had him a the end of the first round) if the Mets scouts saw him as a plus defender, who could play CF with a decent bat go for it.

if he fails he fails a lot of baseball picks fail.

and hind sight is 20/20 with drafts, but when you take a player projected to get 32nd or thereabouts by nearly everyone before the draft at 13 you better know something.

And I don't even want to knock the Mets scouts.

Conforto was a HR, Rosario looks legit, Smith a good pick, Fulmer obviously panned out, and more.

they should know their own players better than the rest of the league and with some of their biggest decisions they've chosen wrong. They chose to deal Fulmer over injured Wheeler. Let Murphy walk for peanuts when Wright was an obvious injury risk at 3rd. Turner non-tendered. Regardless of public opinion or even market value from other teams, the management group on the inner circle of those decisions should not have so many big misses.

Joe and evan mostly Evan just DESTROYED heyman and made him look like a fool omg.

That was pretty funny lol.

Heyman backed up the trade tooth and nail

can now get one of those uber prospects the Yankees wouldn't trade for Bruce, but for Walker.

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Michael Mayer‏ @mikemayerMMO The Yankees have shown interest in trading for Neil Walker according to @JonHeyman.

this is sarcasm obviously before anyone overreacts, though I do hope the Mets trade Walker, and I don't care even a little bit if it's to the Yankees and Walker has a 2015-Cespedes like stretch run (though that's unlikely).

has taken on the quasi-troll the Mets role on the Mets beat but he also reported the Yankees stuff so I have no reason to doubt Heyman. As to the value of the prospects offered who knows? But unless Carig is ALSO on Boras payroll the Yankees/Mets unwilling to pick up money story has been "collaborated".

about getting rid of Bruce and hopefully Walker is that it lessens the chances of the Mets doing something silly like extending either one a qualifying offer. Given the Mets meager finances, offering $18M for either of these guys in 2018 would stink.

Getting extra playing time to see what we have with Nimmo, Lagares and Flores is a really nice bonus too.

more and more like a rare total misfire (to the tune of 1 million) by the Mets international scouts
Link - ( New Window )

have offered Bruce the QO if they didn't deal him, worst case is another year of a guy hitting 30+ HR's for 17M in RF and Conforto plays CF for a season, best case is he rejects it, signs elsewhere and the Mets get a 2nd round comp pick.

the QO to Bruce was kind of a no-brainer, I don't think there was a chance they'd offer it to Walker, though I have read they may try and work out a short-term deal with him if he's not traded.

In comment 13555184 DanMetroMan said:

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more and more like a rare total misfire (to the tune of 1 million) by the Mets international scouts Link - ( New Window )

Similar to Gregory Guerrero so far who got $1.5M

Maybe the Mets thought they were signing Vlad Jr.

In comment 13555186 pjcas18 said:

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have offered Bruce the QO if they didn't deal him, worst case is another year of a guy hitting 30+ HR's for 17M in RF and Conforto plays CF for a season, best case is he rejects it, signs elsewhere and the Mets get a 2nd round comp pick. the QO to Bruce was kind of a no-brainer, I don't think there was a chance they'd offer it to Walker, though I have read they may try and work out a short-term deal with him if he's not traded.

Walker wont get a QO because he took it last year

The Mets will wait just long enough to call up Smith where we aren't sure if he's ready to take over at 1b to open 2018 #Mets

In comment 13555202 DanMetroMan said:

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The Mets will wait just long enough to call up Smith where we aren't sure if he's ready to take over at 1b to open 2018 #Mets

We got Wilmer as our new 1st baseman

In comment 13555204 spike said:

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In comment 13555202 DanMetroMan said: Quote: The Mets will wait just long enough to call up Smith where we aren't sure if he's ready to take over at 1b to open 2018 #Mets We got Wilmer as our new 1st baseman

It would be a very Mets thing to bring Dom up and have him platoon.

In comment 13555186 pjcas18 said:

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have offered Bruce the QO if they didn't deal him, worst case is another year of a guy hitting 30+ HR's for 17M in RF and Conforto plays CF for a season, best case is he rejects it, signs elsewhere and the Mets get a 2nd round comp pick. the QO to Bruce was kind of a no-brainer, I don't think there was a chance they'd offer it to Walker, though I have read they may try and work out a short-term deal with him if he's not traded.

I think the worst case is that he would accept the QO, eating up close to 15% of the team's payroll (based on a $130M payroll), and revert back to the player he was throughout 2013-2015 (essentially zero WAR over 3 full seasons). Even worse, he'd also add wear and tear on Conforto by exposing him to another full season CF.

I'm glad he's gone and the Mets won't stupidly offer him the QO. If he makes $18M next year I'll come here and own it and say I'm wrong but I'm not worried because there's zero chance that happens.

In comment 13555219 Metnut said:

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In comment 13555186 pjcas18 said: Quote: have offered Bruce the QO if they didn't deal him, worst case is another year of a guy hitting 30+ HR's for 17M in RF and Conforto plays CF for a season, best case is he rejects it, signs elsewhere and the Mets get a 2nd round comp pick. the QO to Bruce was kind of a no-brainer, I don't think there was a chance they'd offer it to Walker, though I have read they may try and work out a short-term deal with him if he's not traded. I think the worst case is that he would accept the QO, eating up close to 15% of the team's payroll (based on a $130M payroll), and revert back to the player he was throughout 2013-2015 (essentially zero WAR over 3 full seasons). Even worse, he'd also add wear and tear on Conforto by exposing him to another full season CF. I'm glad he's gone and the Mets won't stupidly offer him the QO. If he makes $18M next year I'll come here and own it and say I'm wrong but I'm not worried because there's zero chance that happens.

Who do you replace Bruce with that is going to duplicate or improve his production and cost less than 18M?

I'd like to see the Mets go with an IF of:

Smith, Flores, Rosario and Cabrera (if not dealt). Let Reyes play utility to give other guys a day off every now and then. Let's see if Flores can keep hitting and let's see if Cabrera is worth his option. Hopefully they find some sucker to take Walker because he looks shot and has no future here and any playing time he gets is a waste.

For OF, start Conforto and Cespedes pretty much every day and give the rest of the time to Nimmo/Lagares. I'd give Cespedes an additional day off every week too which should give even more ABs to Nimmo/Lagares.

My point is that it isn't likely that Jay Bruce can replace most his own 2017 production in 2018. Look at the player he's been for most of his recent career rather than a little more than 4 months. Look at how little interest there was for this guy around MLB. Another year of aging will make him even worse defensively and add wear and tear on our biggest non thor/degrom asset.

Bat first corner OFs are pretty cheap now in MLB. If the Mets really want Bruce back, they'll be able to get him for a lot less than $18M.

Bruce is producing right at his career norms. Last year as a Met was a down "year" for him.

In comment 13555233 pjcas18 said:

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Bruce is producing right at his career norms. Last year as a Met was a down "year" for him.

And $18M would be total commitment for Bruce if he accepts the QO, like Murphy, assuming he rejects it, he'd likely get a 3 year $35M offer somewhere and I'd rather the one year $18M. And Bruce is far more likely to accept $35M than $18M guaranteed.

In comment 13555233 pjcas18 said:

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Bruce is producing right at his career norms. Last year as a Met was a down "year" for him.

His 2014-2016 numbers (0.2 total fWar over 3 seasons and almost 1600 ABs and an OBP under 300) is a much larger sample size than 4 months in 2017. I'm not willing to gamble $18M of payroll that 2017 Bruce is the real player, especially since we're an NL team and he has to play the field here.

years with the Mets he put up 8 fWAR. That's A LOT more than Bruce put up in the past 4 years.

If Bruce gets a Murphy contract from someone I'll come here and admit I was wrong but I think zero chance that happens. He was a sure bet to accept the QO since no one will come close to paying him $18M. The last thing the Mets need is more dead money.

In comment 13555239 Metnut said:

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years with the Mets he put up 8 fWAR. That's A LOT more than Bruce put up in the past 4 years. If Bruce gets a Murphy contract from someone I'll come here and admit I was wrong but I think zero chance that happens. He was a sure bet to accept the QO since no one will come close to paying him $18M. The last thing the Mets need is more dead money.

Bruce's WAR is impacted by his defense. I do not subscribe fully to being able to quantify defense through advanced statistics, you do, so great that's how you sign players.

If you really need an advanced stat I'd use wRC+ before WAR, especially after watching practically a full season of Bruce, while he's not a gold glover out there I felt like some of his defensive reputation is over-exaggerated.

And you have to replace Bruce with someone, and my sense is there is no one ready in the system and no free agent is going to do that in 2018 for less than an $18M commitment (total commitment).

But again, this is worst case, I feel fairly confident Bruce would reject the QO and get an offer like Murphy got and accept it to go elsewhere, probably to an AL team that can DH him.

but obviously it's a moot point.

to agree on this one PJ.

I'll just add that viewing his defense through my eyes matches what the metrics say.

In comment 13555245 Metnut said:

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to agree on this one PJ. I'll just add that viewing his defense through my eyes matches what the metrics say.

Even if it does, I am pretty confident he would have rejected the QO. But like I said it's moot now, so we can both claim victory and it's not provable either way, LOL.

Nimmo is the perfect example of "use this time" to make decisions. ST is mostly useless and late Sept. can be too. Use this time to judge... is Nimmo a 4th OF? Is he a 5th? is he a AAAA player?

Collins says Granderson will remain the starter. Too hot to bench him. Moron.

In comment 13555265 DanMetroMan said:

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Collins says Granderson will remain the starter. Too hot to bench him. Moron.

That alone should be a fireable offense. You trade Bruce to get Nimmo consistent AB's PERIOD

Is a player hitting 3 for 17 in August too hot to bench

Dan's post and thought he was joking. Holy shit he's not. Terrible.

In comment 13555265 DanMetroMan said:

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Collins says Granderson will remain the starter. Too hot to bench him. Moron.

LOL, this is ridiculous.

I guess Terry really doesn't give a shit about the future of the team, it's not like he'll be here so what does he care.

Might as well stay close with the older guys.

Oy.

In comment 13555442 arcarsenal said:

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In comment 13555265 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Collins says Granderson will remain the starter. Too hot to bench him. Moron. LOL, this is ridiculous. I guess Terry really doesn't give a shit about the future of the team, it's not like he'll be here so what does he care. Might as well stay close with the older guys. Oy.

Let TC go and put Dick Scott in charge. David Wright can be bench coach .

part of their top 30 prospects?