NFT: Indians close to acquiring Jay Bruce

Making noise

In comment 13554627 Rory said:

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a realistic acquisition next year? Zero to nothing for 3bs in the pipeline which leads me to believe its Flores or a FA next year. Or Cabrera

No they still want you to foolishly believe David Wright is coming back

find it hard to believe the Mets would avoid adding a "real" 3b because of Wright but it sure is another issue with him "sort of" being around.

but I think the idea is if 2017 is a stinker, with late season revenues probably declining below expectations b/c of lower turnout, then the Wilpons will make less profit or even lose money for 2017. If that happens they (or any owner) would be gunshy about spending the next year. But if they can get out of some contracts and save $10 million in a non-competitive season to offset reduced revenues, then maybe they feel more comfortable spending in 2018 -- because there is an acknowledgment that they're not stuck with payroll just because they started the season with it.

Lost in all this is the question of whether the Yankees prospects were worth 4 million more than the Indians prospect. 4 million isnt a ton of money for a prospect (look at what Cubans sign for), but it's not chump change. I wonder whether, in an average team prospect pool, how many prospects would net you 4 million in a trade. That is, taking the 15th best farm system, what # prospect would cause another team to take the prospect and eat the salary in a trade.

Also, were the Yankees asking the Mets to eat the whole salary?

12th rounder Bryce Hutchinson posted video of his first pro bullpen session


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In comment 13554689 Shecky said:

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How and why did the "Yankee thing" get out there almost immediately after the trade was done. Happened twice in a month. Hmmmmmmm

that thought def occurred to me as well.

I hope their season crashes and burns

In comment 13554696 Deej said:

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but I think the idea is if 2017 is a stinker, with late season revenues probably declining below expectations b/c of lower turnout, then the Wilpons will make less profit or even lose money for 2017. If that happens they (or any owner) would be gunshy about spending the next year. But if they can get out of some contracts and save $10 million in a non-competitive season to offset reduced revenues, then maybe they feel more comfortable spending in 2018 -- because there is an acknowledgment that they're not stuck with payroll just because they started the season with it. Lost in all this is the question of whether the Yankees prospects were worth 4 million more than the Indians prospect. 4 million isnt a ton of money for a prospect (look at what Cubans sign for), but it's not chump change. I wonder whether, in an average team prospect pool, how many prospects would net you 4 million in a trade. That is, taking the 15th best farm system, what # prospect would cause another team to take the prospect and eat the salary in a trade. Also, were the Yankees asking the Mets to eat the whole salary?

Deej, per Sherman the Yankees wanted the Mets to eat a "piece" of the owed money.

"The Yankees were not only one of those teams, they had agreed to send the two prospects requested by the Mets in exchange for the Mets eating a piece of the roughly $5 million Bruce was owed the rest of the season."

In comment 13554689 Shecky said:

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How and why did the "Yankee thing" get out there almost immediately after the trade was done. Happened twice in a month. Hmmmmmmm

Easy, they wanted to rub the Mets noses in it after we dealt with their rivals and not them. Doesn't mean it's not true that they had better offers though. Especially given how aggressive they were in other trades.

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In comment 13554696 Deej said:

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but I think the idea is if 2017 is a stinker, with late season revenues probably declining below expectations b/c of lower turnout, then the Wilpons will make less profit or even lose money for 2017. If that happens they (or any owner) would be gunshy about spending the next year. But if they can get out of some contracts and save $10 million in a non-competitive season to offset reduced revenues, then maybe they feel more comfortable spending in 2018 -- because there is an acknowledgment that they're not stuck with payroll just because they started the season with it. Lost in all this is the question of whether the Yankees prospects were worth 4 million more than the Indians prospect. 4 million isnt a ton of money for a prospect (look at what Cubans sign for), but it's not chump change. I wonder whether, in an average team prospect pool, how many prospects would net you 4 million in a trade. That is, taking the 15th best farm system, what # prospect would cause another team to take the prospect and eat the salary in a trade. Also, were the Yankees asking the Mets to eat the whole salary?

I agree with your thinking but I think your numbers are off. Unless I'm wrong, Bruce has $3.7M left and the Yankees were "allegedly" willing to throw in around $1.5M. So it's more a matter of if the Mets thought the two prospects were worth $2M rather than 4. If reports are true, that is.

In comment 13554703 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13554689 Shecky said: Quote: How and why did the "Yankee thing" get out there almost immediately after the trade was done. Happened twice in a month. Hmmmmmmm Easy, they wanted to rub the Mets noses in it after we dealt with their rivals and not them. Doesn't mean it's not true that they had better offers though. Especially given how aggressive they were in other trades.

It stinks, that's all I'm saying ;)
Think about the timing of the quote. That's the key

In comment 13554695 DanMetroMan said:

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find it hard to believe the Mets would avoid adding a "real" 3b because of Wright but it sure is another issue with him "sort of" being around.

I was wrong about Valbuena, but I'd happily take him off their hands for next season.

that the Yankees would throw in good/decent prospects over a couple million. Though i have not analyzed their luxury cap situation.

Mid market teams - yes i can see that... but Yankees/Sox one would think would be more reluctant to part with prospects they gave an iota shit about over ~3 million.

In comment 13554707 BigBlueShock said:

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I agree with your thinking but I think your numbers are off. Unless I'm wrong, Bruce has $3.7M left and the Yankees were "allegedly" willing to throw in around $1.5M. So it's more a matter of if the Mets thought the two prospects were worth $2M rather than 4. If reports are true, that is.

I was speaking bigger picture. Bruce, Reed, and others. Obviously as a fan I wish they're treat everything as money is no object, but I cant demand that. If they feel like the right move is to trade off contracts for less of a return that they'd get if they retained $$ in a stinker season, that's fine. It incentivizes future spending IMO. And it's just the other side of the willingness spending more at the trading deadline when you're in contention.

In comment 13554703 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 13554689 Shecky said: Quote: How and why did the "Yankee thing" get out there almost immediately after the trade was done. Happened twice in a month. Hmmmmmmm Easy, they wanted to rub the Mets noses in it after we dealt with their rivals and not them. Doesn't mean it's not true that they had better offers though. Especially given how aggressive they were in other trades.

How do you know the Yankees are the ones leaking these reports?

of on topic but Dave Cameron did a piece on prospect valuations based on the FG tools chart the #1 prospect in baseball (at the time) Moncada was worth 107 million (Rosario 70 million for those curious).

In comment 13554710 Shecky said:

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In comment 13554695 DanMetroMan said: Quote: find it hard to believe the Mets would avoid adding a "real" 3b because of Wright but it sure is another issue with him "sort of" being around. I was wrong about Valbuena, but I'd happily take him off their hands for next season.

He's been horrendous but at 1 year 8.5 million that's likely the kind of guy they look at (which is also why I think Cabrera might return).

In comment 13554712 MetsAreBack said:

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that the Yankees would throw in good/decent prospects over a couple million. Though i have not analyzed their luxury cap situation. Mid market teams - yes i can see that... but Yankees/Sox one would think would be more reluctant to part with prospects they gave an iota shit about over ~3 million.

The Yankees have been dying to get under the tax threshold for years now and probably will be able to do it next season. They also have an incredibly deep farm system now. Other organizations might have a little more high-end talent in the minors, but guys in the 30-50 range for the Yankees could be in the top 30 in many organizations.

than Flores. He's had an .800 OPS over the last 2 seasons and will have played about 100 games in each year. His defense hurts him I suppose and I certainly wouldn't be opposed to bringing in someone to compete with him, just not sure it's the best use of $80-100M it will likely take to get Moustakas. Not that we should expect the Mets to give that much out to any one player. Too bad they've somewhat soured on Cabrera, he'd be a really good insurance policy.

In comment 13554548 ZGiants98 said:

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doesn't mean Sandy liked them more. The only thing confirmed is that the Yankees offered to eat some of the 3 million. The rest is all assumption, leading, or guesswork likely based on the Wilpons history.

gotta say...you're an optimist often. you may or may not have earned a lame nickname yet. But does it strike you as amazing how many people read this:

1 million paid and 2 prospects
or
4 millio and 1 prospect

and proceed to go on a rant and rave about the cheapness of the owner...without having even the slightest idea of which prospects Alderson turned down for money instead.


the point is, this is not the fucking owner. this is not the fucking gm. this is called bad luck and a decision made to not put out an offer sheet for a guy who takes up a space, may not have wanted to sign anything long term here, had a no trade to certain clubs, is not worth the 4 mil to pay the rest of the year if they have already long given up (i still don't get completely giving up in game 70 just because fans and kevin kernan have).

i wanted the guy to stay. How many players come here and are actaully not thrilled to be, but proceed to rake on pace for 35hr without the expected lineup protetion he should have had? Free agents and power hitting free agents come here to rot and die. Not have their best seasons. Hell if he was smart he WOULD want to stay. But now a CF replacement is an interesting thought. And its only that IF they can get homers from 1B, 3B, C, and even some from 2B. It's mindboggling how D'Arnaud has clearly shown stretches of having legit hitting ability and yet that OBP is so vile on a team that would like him to bump that by 50 points. Then again i remember the ravenous true anger at the loss of future HoF 1st ballot catcher Jonathan LuCroy

Putting aside the "they are the mets" nonsense....how is it that contending teams didnt find Jay Bruce to be a clear upgrade to one spot?

In comment 13554722 Eric on Li said:

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than Flores. He's had an .800 OPS over the last 2 seasons and will have played about 100 games in each year. His defense hurts him I suppose and I certainly wouldn't be opposed to bringing in someone to compete with him, just not sure it's the best use of $80-100M it will likely take to get Moustakas. Not that we should expect the Mets to give that much out to any one player. Too bad they've somewhat soured on Cabrera, he'd be a really good insurance policy.

The only reason I routinely "ignore" Flores as a 3b option is the Mets seemingly don't see him as an every day 3b. I'd be more than fine naming Wilmer the 3b and keeping Cabrera.

being speculated that ex-Met farm hand Luis Cessa was the lesser of 2 prospects the Mets would have received for Bruce from the Yankees.

for an extended look somewhere other than SS over the past couple years. I imagine it's just his defense is that bad in the eyes of the coaches because he's a pretty big negative everywhere according to the metrics.

In comment 13554715 DanMetroMan said:

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of on topic but Dave Cameron did a piece on prospect valuations based on the FG tools chart the #1 prospect in baseball (at the time) Moncada was worth 107 million (Rosario 70 million for those curious).

But in the real world Ynoa was sold for next to nothing and Ramos, a recent third rounder, was traded for the ABILITY to spend money. Uber prospects are worth $$ due to the early years of 'surplus value' or at least expected surplus value. In the real world fringe prospects are sold for pennies

a total BSer but incarcerated Bob claims the Yankees offered Domingo Germen and Luis Medina.

In comment 13554733 Eric on Li said:

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for an extended look somewhere other than SS over the past couple years. I imagine it's just his defense is that bad in the eyes of the coaches because he's a pretty big negative everywhere according to the metrics.

Yeah like I said, sometimes when I don't consider guys for roles it's just about how the Mets seemingly perceive them. That said for all I know they hire a guy like Hale or Acta or whomever and the guy loves Wilmer.

In comment 13554682 BigBlueShock said:

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Haha. Gotta love all the Mets fans trying to point at the Yankees for blowing this. Nobody knows what prospects were involved so saying one side or the other "should have done this or that" is ridiculous. I'm going to go ahead and trust Cashman on this. If he didn't feel it was worth giving up whichever prospects the Mets were asking for AND paying the entire salary, so be it. Let me know who the prospects were and then I'll choose sides.

That's fair, and I suppose one could infer that I implied that the Yanks "blew it", but that wasn't my intent. I completely agree that there are plenty of reasons for Cash to turn the deal down, but meant to say that Bruce would be terrific at YS. Bat him behind Judge, and look out!

In comment 13554737 Shecky said:

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In comment 13554715 DanMetroMan said: Quote: of on topic but Dave Cameron did a piece on prospect valuations based on the FG tools chart the #1 prospect in baseball (at the time) Moncada was worth 107 million (Rosario 70 million for those curious). But in the real world Ynoa was sold for next to nothing and Ramos, a recent third rounder, was traded for the ABILITY to spend money. Uber prospects are worth $$ due to the early years of 'surplus value' or at least expected surplus value. In the real world fringe prospects are sold for pennies

Just not the Mets way but I'd love to see them try and lock up Conforto and Rosario long term. Might bring some good will the way Wright/Reyes initial deals did.

And allegedly turned down the deal over what, $1.x million? I had no idea they were so tight now.

Because once again the Wilson's screwed us, but corporations absolutely take prior year revenue into consideration for future year budgets. For instance the Mets revenue is clearly declining and their P/L is going to be way off expected mark. The decision on next years payroll will with out a doubt be based off of that expected PL, to think otherwise just ignores logic. That's not to say that we have 4 million so let's add 4 million, but more here is what expenses were last year how can we operate at Xx return moving forward. That is a long winded way of saying it's definitely included in calculation.

out of spite(sure seems that way), then the Yankees have every right to let that be known.

would have been significant upgrades over Ryder Ryan. Ryan may have upside, but he's a low A reliever. Cessa and German are both MLB-ready relievers with late-inning upside. The Mets aren't punting next year, either could be useful pieces.

Bruce. He's a very streaky hitter who can carry an offense for periods of time, but also looks lost for periods of time. Headley is looking really good at 1B, Bird is due back soon, Cooper looks like a major league hitter to me and I wouldn't just write off his minor league success. Holliday is going to have a role. I would take Bruce, but I wouldn't give up any good prospects for him.

In comment 13554762 schabadoo said:

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And allegedly turned down the deal over what, $1.x million? I had no idea they were so tight now.

And another guy pointing the finger at the Yankees without knowing any details. Cashman has been very active adding players in recent weeks. Yet, he's "so tight now"? Jeezus

In comment 13554766 bhill410 said:

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Because once again the Wilson's screwed us, but corporations absolutely take prior year revenue into consideration for future year budgets. For instance the Mets revenue is clearly declining and their P/L is going to be way off expected mark. The decision on next years payroll will with out a doubt be based off of that expected PL, to think otherwise just ignores logic. That's not to say that we have 4 million so let's add 4 million, but more here is what expenses were last year how can we operate at Xx return moving forward. That is a long winded way of saying it's definitely included in calculation.

The Mets will NOT be spending 4 million more than they planned in 2018 because they traded Jay Bruce this season. Again if that were the case they would EAT money to dump all expiring deals to "save" if they at money on Granderson, Walker etc they would come out "ahead" in savings. Every team would dump all expiring deals and would be lauded for adding "money" for next years payroll and they are not.

Walker is owed about 5 million, Granderson about 3, Cabrera about 5. If the Mets were going to use "now" money toward 2018 payroll then they they would kick in money in order to save money. Let's say those 3 are owed 13 million, if the Mets "ate" 5 to move them they they would have 8 million "more" to spend next season? No, that's not the way they operate nor how other teams operate.

Mets opened the season 12th in payroll. 155 million, for context the Cardinals were 14th at 152, Cubs 8th at 172 so the Mets were roughly middle of the pack in spending. I expect the 2018 payroll to be closer to 130 million

You just discovered a new MoneyBall Dan lol

In comment 13554790 Shecky said:

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You just discovered a new MoneyBall Dan lol

It does seem like there is some sort of market correction going on where power bats without secondary skills are viewed as marginal and sadly for the Mets the view that "pitchers break" is becoming more and more accepted. I think the primary reason the Mets have taken a step back is the draft/unable to fill holes internally. Now that wouldn't have saved the Mets season given what happened to the rotation but it would have given them a chance. Instead there was "nothing" to fill in the gaps and that will continue to be an issue in 2018 where there isn't a ton of MLB ready help on the way.

Less than what they were going to spend. From what I read the Mets have a wonky system (not shocking) where the wilpons don't give hard budgets anyway, but to say that a company doesn't take last years profits and losses into account for future estimation just is ignoring reality. Not trying to sound like a deek but that just isn't how things function.

would have been something centered around Reed and Duda to the Yanks.

The Yanks opted for the White Sox package which included the additional reliever.

They definitely do not like dealing with one another.

In comment 13554798 bhill410 said:

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Less than what they were going to spend. From what I read the Mets have a wonky system (not shocking) where the wilpons don't give hard budgets anyway, but to say that a company doesn't take last years profits and losses into account for future estimation just is ignoring reality. Not trying to sound like a deek but that just isn't how things function.

My point is they don't take 3.7 million saved on Jay Bruce and say "okay we have more money to spend next season". As I said then every team in baseball would eat "some" money to save the rest of it. We'd see salary dumps en masse.

is ugly
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In comment 13554802 DanMetroMan said:

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is ugly Link - ( New Window )

Too soon to tell? Alonso might be thebest of the bunch

In comment 13554812 spike said:

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In comment 13554802 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is ugly Link - ( New Window ) Too soon to tell? Alonso might be thebest of the bunch

2016 they took a bunch of low upside college players. Not really the "let it play out" types. Returns have been quite poor. Alonso/Dunn/Kay are the guys we have to hope for but it's part of the reason they don't have much on the way for 2018.

In comment 13554817 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13554812 spike said: Quote: In comment 13554802 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is ugly Link - ( New Window ) Too soon to tell? Alonso might be thebest of the bunch 2016 they took a bunch of low upside college players. Not really the "let it play out" types. Returns have been quite poor. Alonso/Dunn/Kay are the guys we have to hope for but it's part of the reason they don't have much on the way for 2018.

Theyve been very disappointing, as are the 2015 draftees. Why did we give up a first rd pick for fucking Cuddyer?

In comment 13554817 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13554812 spike said: Quote: In comment 13554802 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is ugly Link - ( New Window ) Too soon to tell? Alonso might be thebest of the bunch 2016 they took a bunch of low upside college players. Not really the "let it play out" types. Returns have been quite poor. Alonso/Dunn/Kay are the guys we have to hope for but it's part of the reason they don't have much on the way for 2018.

Didn't they do the same thing in 2017, other than Vientos in the 2nd the first 10 rounds were all college players, mostly 22 - 23 years old already.

no clue about the "low upside", but when your first round pick projects as a reliever not much to get excited about (though he did strike out 20 batters in a college game, so there's that).

I do like that Vientos signed though.

In comment 13554715 DanMetroMan said:

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of on topic but Dave Cameron did a piece on prospect valuations based on the FG tools chart the #1 prospect in baseball (at the time) Moncada was worth 107 million (Rosario 70 million for those curious).

Here it is. Not sure I buy it. Grade 45 prospects are worth $11-13 million? Grade 45 prospects are a dime a dozen. The notion that teams with twenty grade 45 prospects have a quarter-billion dollars in prospect value sitting in the minors is nonsense to me.
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they went "safe" in 2017 but part of that was to give Vientos money but they also took some more interesting talents. Dibrell, Renteria (he's been terrible but huge arm), Hutchinson, Peden and Schneider were all reasonably high picks that could be interesting. 2016 they took a ton of low upside "maybe utility" players high and so far it's been ugly

think Peterson remains a SP, his upside we shall see but he might surprise.