so I have posted on this before, Zeke suspension ruins everything.
In my league we have two keepers, and you lose the round you drafted the person in. So my keepers are set (Howard in the 8th and Michael Thomas in the 11th). I did some early planning last year in the face of a slew of injuries and I have two first, two seconds, and a 3rd round pick.
I wound up with the 3rd pick and 7th pick in the 1st.
My top 4 picks are #3, #7, #12, #16 and #24.
I felt great about it a week ago b/c there were three "tier 1" talents available, Julio Jones, Zeke, and Odell Beckham. So I was guaranteed 1 of those 3 and would be fine with any of them.
Now, it's unlikely I draft Zeke and here are my choices (12 team PPR, 6 pt per passing TD)
I will assume Elliott is there and Jones and Beckham are gone here is the top 25 available:
1. McCoy
2. Evans
3. Freeman
4. TY
5. Dez
6. Doug Baldwin
7. Gronk
8. Demaryius Thomas
9. Gurley
10. Hopkins
11. Fournette
12. Lamar Miller
13. Allen Robinson
14. Keenan Allen
15. Kelce
16. Watkins
17. Alshon
18. Tate
19. Crabtree
20. McCaffrey
21. Fitz
22. Landry
23. Pryor
24. Hyde
25. Olsen
So, who do you take at 3 knowing I have a choice of any of those players 1 - 25, assuming neither of the top 2 teams take Elliott and then who would you target at 7?
And I'm not crazy to completely avoid Elliott right?
2- Would go with Shady. RB's are thin/top heavy while WRs are deeper IMO. With Shady, you're set at RB and can take some risks in the later rounds. I think you can find quality WRs later
Between the two, I'd go with McCoy, since it seems the Bills will funnel their entire offense through him and that he'll be more involved in the passing game also.
At #7, hard to pass up on Gurley\Fournette\Elliot at this point and one of them would allow you to move Howard more so as a Flex option on your roster and get you loaded with high end RBs.....even with Elliot's 6 game suspension since you'd already have McCoy and Howard to start.
Then after that, I'd attack WR/TE with your #12, 16 and 24 picks. Guys like Allen Robinson or Keenan Allen with picks 12/16 and a target hog TE like Olsen with pick 24.
I feel this is a deep QB draft, especially in 10 team leagues like yours and you can wait to draft a QB.
Even though we do have 6pt per TD QBs.
I'd almost be prepared to key on a guy like McCaffrey over Fournette given that receiving production.
My only problem is him mailing it in during what's almost guaranteed to be a lost season, especially if he gets a small injury which seems to always happen.
But man, last year with Gurley was brutal. Couldn't bench him because of fear he'd finally bust out, couldn't trade him because of his slow start he had no value, and he was a 5th round keeper for me so he was more valuable to me than others, and he just sucked, week after week.
I saw a graphic comparing Julio Jones and Sammy Watkins first three years in the league and it's not as different as you might think.
A lot of people predicting a good year from Watkins if he stays on the field.
not early, but new coach (who I liked as an OC), 2nd year for Goff, better OL, better TE and some upgraded receiving options, I think there could be value in some Rams offensive players.
Evans is also a strong play. Clearly I think your first pick must be either Shady or Freeman, so if I were you I'd simply do as much due diligence as possible to not screw that one up.
I think at 7 you should go with the highest volume receiver possible. Don't be afraid to take Elliott earlier than you expect him to go, either.
This year I think he'll see a dip in targets as the Bucs have made a consistent effort to add weapons on offense. DJax, OJ Howard, Brate all looking for targets. He's still a top-end talent so the TD production will be there, but his insane targeting totals may be a pipe dream.
So you miss some games but when he comes back you have a top 5 player with McCoy and Howard.
So you miss some games but when he comes back you have a top 5 player with McCoy and Howard.
You better have a good team without him because you'll be without him for the first 7 games of a 13 game regular season. That's more than half the regular season. I think in pj's case here, he can actually get away with that.
barring injury (and of course suspension) you can pencil the guy in for 1500+ yards and 15 - 20 TD's the next 3 - 5 years.
so even if this year he misses half the season I expect he'll come back and be good so just need to stay close or even trade him.
I'd pick him in the 2nd easily, but I doubt he last to the 2nd. We have a guy whose two keepers are Antonio Brown and David Johnson, I almost know for a fact he'd take Elliott in the 2nd and then have a choice between 2 of those 3 as his keepers next year.
I have 4 Cowboys fans in my league.
This is good information but there are a number of factors that you could use to logically project Freeman to outperform Shady this year.
One, Freeman has gotten better every year. He also had more targets than Shady last year. Third, the Bills got worse both offensively and defensively with the trades. They appear to be going the suck for Luck strategy. I like players in good offenses, and the Bills project to be one of the worst, the Falcons are one of the best.
Shady is entering age 29 season. He could start to leave his prime any year now. Also, the Bills schedule is actually pretty terrible if you look at the matchups. Falcons have some tough spots, but I actually like theirs much more. The topper, the Bills play the Patriots in week 16, probably your championship week, and the Falcons play the Saints in what will promise to be a fantasy football wet dream matchup.
I like Shady McCoy, I just think it's closer than it appears, and if Freeman gets more carries, like in the 240-260 range, it's easily Freeman.
just an FYI...
I'd say Ryan, Winston, Mariota
Mariota is good, but still in a run first offense
Ryan was 2nd in my league in FFL points last year.
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Ryan vs Mariota vs Winston in terms of ranking?
I'd say Ryan, Winston, Mariota
Mariota is good, but still in a run first offense
Ryan was 2nd in my league in FFL points last year.
Thanks! Yea makes sense - I like Winston's receiving corp better as well with the Djax + Howard additions
just an FYI...
Good point, which is why if I draft Freeman I will certainly be making a concerted effort to get Coleman later.
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In comment 13560195 kash94 said:
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Ryan vs Mariota vs Winston in terms of ranking?
I'd say Ryan, Winston, Mariota
Mariota is good, but still in a run first offense
Ryan was 2nd in my league in FFL points last year.
Thanks! Yea makes sense - I like Winston's receiving corp better as well with the Djax + Howard additions
I also agree with that order.
AND Gillisee vultured at least 5-6 TDs from him.
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2016--McCoy totaled 14 more points than Freeman.
This is good information but there are a number of factors that you could use to logically project Freeman to outperform Shady this year.
One, Freeman has gotten better every year. He also had more targets than Shady last year. Third, the Bills got worse both offensively and defensively with the trades. They appear to be going the suck for Luck strategy. I like players in good offenses, and the Bills project to be one of the worst, the Falcons are one of the best.
Shady is entering age 29 season. He could start to leave his prime any year now. Also, the Bills schedule is actually pretty terrible if you look at the matchups. Falcons have some tough spots, but I actually like theirs much more. The topper, the Bills play the Patriots in week 16, probably your championship week, and the Falcons play the Saints in what will promise to be a fantasy football wet dream matchup.
I like Shady McCoy, I just think it's closer than it appears, and if Freeman gets more carries, like in the 240-260 range, it's easily Freeman.
Yup before that post I said I'd take freeman. I was posting the 16 pt differential more to point out how close freeman and McCoy were last year. To me the closeness further backs up taking freeman over McCoy. Anything can happen but the odds favor freeman staying or getting better while McCoy's production dips. His production has dipped if not in linear fashion.
I do have a question for you PJ. What is with the 6pts per passing TD? Seems to put too much emphasis or importance on the QB
I pick 7th and can keep AB at the cost of my first rounder, Freeman at 2nd and Ajayi at 9th. I feel pretty good about that, but not great. I'd be somewhat tempted not to keep Freeman and go with a top tier QB or WR if it weren't for the fact that in general, the best 40 or so players will be gone by my second pick. AB will likely have a string of 3-4 consecutive games with shitty production playing with a backup QB, but I'm not about to give him up and replace him with the best rookie RB or something.
The only guy who's giving me serious pause, then, is Mariotta. I can keep him for an 8th rounder. In my league, guys like him will go 3rd or 4th because they're the best tier available by that point.
I do have a question for you PJ. What is with the 6pts per passing TD? Seems to put too much emphasis or importance on the QB
that's the way it's always been in this league for some reason and we have bonuses for long TD's so if you have say Matt Ryan and Julio Jones (for example) and there's a 40 yard TD pass you get all the yards, 12 pts for the TD and 10 bonus points (5 each) for the long TD.
and some free advice for you, check the BBI league, since that league also has 6pts per passing TD.
You can share advice here without tipping your hand, basically looking at the list of players I have available with ppr and 6pts per passing TD only non-standard settings, who would you take? I'm positive it won't come down to you tipping your hand.
I'll probably just lean WR and take either Jordy or Mike Thomas and see what I've got available on the wrap.
I'll probably just lean WR and take either Jordy or Mike Thomas and see what I've got available on the wrap.
when do you pick in the BBI league?
Assuming top 7 now are going to be DJ, Bell, Brown, Julio, OBJ, Evans, AJ.. which means I'll be looking at McCoy, Jordy, Thomas, Hilton, Freeman, etc.
I also have 8th pick in my other 12 team PPR league so I'm going to have to do this twice.
But I'm tempted to keep Mariotta over Freeman and then try to draft a guy like McCaffery with my second. I feel like Mariotta's really going to benefit from his new WR's, and I feel there's a risk for Freeman to miss games and have TD's vultured.
Assuming top 7 now are going to be DJ, Bell, Brown, Julio, OBJ, Evans, AJ.. which means I'll be looking at McCoy, Jordy, Thomas, Hilton, Freeman, etc.
I also have 8th pick in my other 12 team PPR league so I'm going to have to do this twice.
I'm at 9, so your decision directly effects me. it did anyway, before Zeke, but 1 less good player now that will go ahead of me.
hopefully no more injuries or suspensions this pre-season.
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8th. Which was perfect before the Zeke suspension because it meant either Evans or AJ were guaranteed to fall into my lap and I likely would have been fine with either.
Assuming top 7 now are going to be DJ, Bell, Brown, Julio, OBJ, Evans, AJ.. which means I'll be looking at McCoy, Jordy, Thomas, Hilton, Freeman, etc.
I also have 8th pick in my other 12 team PPR league so I'm going to have to do this twice.
I'm at 9, so your decision directly effects me. it did anyway, before Zeke, but 1 less good player now that will go ahead of me.
hopefully no more injuries or suspensions this pre-season.
I need to remember that - just in case you try to purposely steer me a certain way so you can get someone you want.
In all seriousness, though - yeah I hope there aren't any more injuries or suspensions.
Keith is probably keeping the sheet to himself this year.
You can share advice here without tipping your hand, basically looking at the list of players I have available with ppr and 6pts per passing TD only non-standard settings, who would you take? I'm positive it won't come down to you tipping your hand.
It is a really tough call this year. So many things have happened in the past week which have turned it all upside down. I pasted the top portion of your list below. I prefer to have some certainty. McCoy's situation is unclear now that Watkins is gone. Freeman has a new OC so who knows there. TY with the Luck situation does not make me feel good. Dez may get tighter coverage with Zeke out of the lineup... or they may throw to him more now. Evans may be the safest play.
1. McCoy
2. Evans
3. Freeman
4. TY
5. Dez
6. Doug Baldwin
7. Gronk
8. Demaryius Thomas
9. Gurley
10. Hopkins
11. Fournette
I think fantasypros or some site does something sort of similar, not nearly as comprehensive though.
Gurley -- gets a ton of volume and should get more in the passing game. The team should be better so defenses shouldn't be able to stuff the box as much. Could be primed for a bounce back year.
Hopkins -- volume is a huge part of WR production and he gets a ton. Check his targets the last few years. Legit WR1 upside.
Alshon -- ton of volume in CHI when healthy. WR1 upside if healthy. Legitimately big if though.
Olsen -- based on your list. I'd prob go another direction though bc TE is pretty deep this year. Prob BPA QB.
Don't worry, I can give good advice and still kick your sorry 0-13 ass.
Gotta have stretch goals
So it's true, kmed, no spreadsheet because you feel threatened by Arc?
I actually think he had your friend's spreadsheet when he went 0 - 13 so maybe there's a Giants fan version your buddy creates, LOL.