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NFT: Daily Fantasy Week 1: FanDuel/DraftKings

kelsto811 : 9/7/2017 12:36 am
There's so much to write but I'm just gonna keep the original post sort of, kind of light since I doubt there's a ton of interest here. Will gladly post more should people choose to keep the thread going..If I get no replies, that's fine since a lot of this information I've shared or used from RotoGrinders, but we'll just not go to a week 2 and beyond.

*Note: Most of this is my opinion based on FanDuel, the platform I play on...and only for the main slate. Thursday night not included*

First, for those getting started and want to really get involved, here's a glossary of terms related to DFS:

4for4Glossary

Position by position rankings based on week 1 projections

QB
Rodgers
Wilson
Newton
Ryan
Cousins
Mariota

RB
Johnson
McCoy
Bell
Gurley
Freeman
Howard/Crowell

WR
Brown
Jones
Beckham
Green
Nelson
Cooper

TE
Gronk
Olsen
Ertz
Reed
Graham
Walker

K

Kickers I usually like to pick the home team who is favored to score the most points via Vegas. You'll want to look at teams who have good offenses and who stall in the redzone too, amongst many other variables. In this case that would be:

Succop
Barth
Bailey

However, I think it's safe to look at their counterparts who are much stronger kickers:

Bryant
Janikowski
Rosas

Defense
Giants
Texans
Rams
Cardinals
Ravens
Steelers

Stacks
QB/WR
QB/WR/WR
QB/RB/WR
QB/RB

QB/WR is the most common stack and the idea is that you double up on points with your QB/WR (same as season long fantasy).

QB/WR/WR stack really will only ever be worthwhile if you can pinpoint that QB who goes for 400/4 TD's. That doesn't happen too many times in a season and this type of stack is not one I recommend personally.

QB/RB and QB/RB/WR, this can work. I think last year Roethlisberger/Brown/Bell was in a top lineup.

Personal favorite stacks this week

Rodgers-Adams
Wilson-Baldwin
Palmer-Brown
Hoyer-Goodwin
Carr-Cooper

Favorite play of the week

LeSean McCoy - He's a must have IMO for cash games on either platform and I have him in a bunch of GPP lineups.

Facing a Jets D who just traded Sheldon Richardson. A team who will fight to win more than 2/3 games this year. An extremely lackluster offense who should fall behind early.

No one on the Bills is taking carries from him. Tyrod Taylor is coming out of the protocol, just lost Watkins, and Matthews is not at full strength.

He gets 25-30 touches and I just can't see a better cash game play, save DJ.



Guys being talked about

*Just some random guys who are being favored in the DFS community for week 1*

Zach Ertz - He's relatively low priced and just an easy guy to plug in to your lineup. He is going to be heavily targeted.

Carlos Hyde - Most think Hyde will be the bellcow for SF with Hoyer at QB. They expect a heavy run game, although on the contrary, I think that Garcon and Goodwin could be sneaky plays as a WR3. Garcon received a ton of targets in the preseason.

AJ Green - Word is Green is back to full strength and people think he'll have a breakout game. Since the MIA/TB game was postponed, expect to see a lot of pivots from Evans to Green (same price range). His ownership percentage would have been fairly low for a top tier receiver otherwise

Zach Miller - He's minimum priced on FanDuel and still the starting TE for the Bears. A vet who had good games last year and can produce value at a $4,500 salary.

Charles Clay - Massive home favorite against the Jets and should see a good target share percentage

Todd Gurley - It's arguable that this is the best matchup on the entire slate, maybe even better than McCoy's. Question is if Gurley last year was an enigma or if he really is the RB people expected him to be

Brandon Marshall - If Beckham is out, Marshall could be a great play at his current price

Zay Jones - Bills rookie who owns the NCAA record for career receptions. There isn't much else to go with the football for Taylor. This may not be the week for Jones since I think you see a heavy run game, but you never know.

Martavis Bryant - Great contrarian pick over Brown. Bryant had some great games when he was playing prior to the suspension. He should get some looks.

Isiah Crowell - Browns have an improved line. They don't have many receiver targets anymore and they should pound the rock a lot this year. Him, or even Duke Johnson as a pivot off (should be a slot receiver for them in situations), could be a great play



Those are just some random guys, there's so many more. Here's a lineup the optimizer I use spit out based on my personal projections:




I feel like I could have organized this better and I'm pretty all over the place, but feel free to add some personal input or questions for others. Share/spread the info!
Thanks for posting Kelsto  
Fox : 9/7/2017 5:07 am : link
If there are others who play on BBI it'd be nice to have a weekly thread. I'm mostly a Draftkings guy playing NFL and NBA. It's a fun topic to discuss and I hope to have time to post something more substantive before kickoff. Though on DK the main slate is Sunday only, so obviously this will have an impact a strategy differences beyond the different scoring models (kicker, full PPR, etc.).
I'd have to go dig up his article about it  
YAJ2112 : 9/7/2017 7:54 am : link
but I thought I heard Michael Rathburn from Rotowire say the other day that it is more common to find a QB/RB stack in a large tourney winning lineup than it is to find a QB/WR.

Haven't done a ton of research yet for this week, but one I do like in that vein is a Newton/McCaffrey stack.
Hoyer/Goodwin  
Kevin in CT : 9/7/2017 8:14 am : link
I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.

A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.

I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
RE: I'd have to go dig up his article about it  
kelsto811 : 9/7/2017 8:38 am : link
In comment 13586867 YAJ2112 said:
Quote:
but I thought I heard Michael Rathburn from Rotowire say the other day that it is more common to find a QB/RB stack in a large tourney winning lineup than it is to find a QB/WR.

Haven't done a ton of research yet for this week, but one I do like in that vein is a Newton/McCaffrey stack.


That definitely could be and I guess kind of makes sense. I'm by no means a pro. Those things are more based on my experiences. I don't think I've ever intentionally gone the QB/RB route.
RE: Hoyer/Goodwin  
kelsto811 : 9/7/2017 8:39 am : link
In comment 13586879 Kevin in CT said:
Quote:
I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.

A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.

I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.


Yea, I was going to mention Wright. He's a guy I'm afraid to play, but maybe shouldn't be. I saw people talking about him for cash games too.

I think Murray will definitely have a good week. Was reading that a lot of the bulk of Henry's touches came later in the year when they wanted to rest Murray's legs. Wonder if the same will hold true this season. Either way, I think you're right he's a top tier potential guy flying under the radar.
RE: Hoyer/Goodwin  
bigbluehoya : 9/7/2017 8:40 am : link
In comment 13586879 Kevin in CT said:
Quote:
I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.

A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.

I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.


What's weird about Murray pricing on DK? Seems about right IMO.
RE: RE: Hoyer/Goodwin  
Kevin in CT : 9/7/2017 9:37 am : link
In comment 13586902 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
In comment 13586879 Kevin in CT said:


Quote:


I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.

A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.

I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.



What's weird about Murray pricing on DK? Seems about right IMO.



I shouldn't have said weird. I feel he'll be overlooked by a good amount due to people gravitating towards Bell, Johnson, and McCoy. Then going after a cheaper guy like Gurley, Hyde, McCaffrey, and etc.


RE: RE: Hoyer/Goodwin  
Kevin in CT : 9/7/2017 9:39 am : link
In comment 13586901 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
In comment 13586879 Kevin in CT said:


Quote:


I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.

A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.

I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.



Yea, I was going to mention Wright. He's a guy I'm afraid to play, but maybe shouldn't be. I saw people talking about him for cash games too.

I think Murray will definitely have a good week. Was reading that a lot of the bulk of Henry's touches came later in the year when they wanted to rest Murray's legs. Wonder if the same will hold true this season. Either way, I think you're right he's a top tier potential guy flying under the radar.


Everyone is on Ertz. Feel like I rather go with Walker or get Olsen who will be super underowned.
Agree on Ertz  
kelsto811 : 9/7/2017 10:06 am : link
I have about 20 lineups and he's probably in more than 60%. I can't seem to get him out. I'm going to change that before Sunday. He's so easy to plug in, I know others are doing the same.

TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.
Panthers D for me  
PatersonPlank : 9/7/2017 10:27 am : link
.
RE: Panthers D for me  
YAJ2112 : 9/7/2017 10:36 am : link
In comment 13587056 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
.


I wouldn't touch them, I think the SF O is going to be sneakily good this year.
TE - Go Engram  
AcesUp : 9/7/2017 10:42 am : link
If OBJ is out or even plays dinged, I can see Engram being featured in the passing game. Dallas was last in the league vs TEs and he's dirt cheap.
RE: RE: Hoyer/Goodwin  
WillVAB : 9/7/2017 9:03 pm : link
In comment 13586902 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
In comment 13586879 Kevin in CT said:


Quote:


I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.

A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.

I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.



What's weird about Murray pricing on DK? Seems about right IMO.


It is weird in that he's substantially lower than Bell/Johnson/McCoy but higher than Gurley/Howard. I agree, he probably will be underowned.
RE: Agree on Ertz  
WillVAB : 9/7/2017 9:06 pm : link
In comment 13587016 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
I have about 20 lineups and he's probably in more than 60%. I can't seem to get him out. I'm going to change that before Sunday. He's so easy to plug in, I know others are doing the same.

TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.


I wouldn't change Ertz just for the sake of changing him. Even if he's the chalk, which seems to be the case, there's plenty of other spots in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field.

I'm kind of heavy on Ertz myself but I'm not changing it unless there's a consideration outside of what I or someone else thinks is high owned.
RE: RE: Agree on Ertz  
kelsto811 : 9/8/2017 5:32 pm : link
In comment 13587792 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 13587016 kelsto811 said:


Quote:


I have about 20 lineups and he's probably in more than 60%. I can't seem to get him out. I'm going to change that before Sunday. He's so easy to plug in, I know others are doing the same.

TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.



I wouldn't change Ertz just for the sake of changing him. Even if he's the chalk, which seems to be the case, there's plenty of other spots in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field.

I'm kind of heavy on Ertz myself but I'm not changing it unless there's a consideration outside of what I or someone else thinks is high owned.


Thanks for the advice Will. I most likely will stay with a good amount of Ertz in my lineup just for the fact that I think WR is going to be where the money is made. Going to make sure I'm not too heavy on anyone there.
RE: RE: RE: Agree on Ertz  
WillVAB : 9/8/2017 10:04 pm : link
In comment 13588823 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
In comment 13587792 WillVAB said:


Quote:


In comment 13587016 kelsto811 said:


Quote:


I have about 20 lineups and he's probably in more than 60%. I can't seem to get him out. I'm going to change that before Sunday. He's so easy to plug in, I know others are doing the same.

TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.



I wouldn't change Ertz just for the sake of changing him. Even if he's the chalk, which seems to be the case, there's plenty of other spots in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field.

I'm kind of heavy on Ertz myself but I'm not changing it unless there's a consideration outside of what I or someone else thinks is high owned.



Thanks for the advice Will. I most likely will stay with a good amount of Ertz in my lineup just for the fact that I think WR is going to be where the money is made. Going to make sure I'm not too heavy on anyone there.


All good man. FYI, this podcast I listen to predicted the following as the chalk:

Wentz
Bell
Johnson
Gurley
Ertz
Rams D
Interesting...  
kelsto811 : 9/8/2017 10:31 pm : link
Only thing that sort of surprises me is Went, but it makes sense with his price
Am I crazy to want to throw Lacy in a lu or 2?  
kelsto811 : 9/8/2017 10:34 pm : link
Revenge game narrative and he looked pretty good in preseason
RE: Am I crazy to want to throw Lacy in a lu or 2?  
WillVAB : 9/8/2017 11:28 pm : link
In comment 13589053 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
Revenge game narrative and he looked pretty good in preseason


I'm completely off Lacy but who knows. He should get a decent amount of volume and would be a nice pivot off of Seattle passing game. Personally I've just never been a fan of Lacy and don't like the spot.

A guy I'm on that's subject to change is Forte. He's usually good for a few huge games early and has a good track record vs Buffalo. People seem to be flirting w Powell but Forte got all the looks vs our first string in the preseason.
Despite the whole hashtag thing  
bigbluehoya : 9/9/2017 12:34 am : link
I think fewer people than expected will go Bell + Johnson.

You need to punt too far on WR IMO.

One player that I'm surprised hasn't gotten more mention on the podcasts is CJ Anderson.

Very cheap. Far from a sure thing, but if his early carries are productive could get a ton of work.

The skeptic in me feels like he is one of the plays that the experts are keeping for themselves in GPP lineups while they feed Gurley and Hyde to the masses.

That's not to hate on the Gurley / Hyde recommendation. I think you can make a very balanced and strong cash lineup in DK by going Gurley + Hyde + CJ. If you combine those guys cost vs production, I think you can pretty easily lock in 3X. Upside is a little limited by high expected ownership on TG and CH, but if it's a reasonably small cash game, high ownership protects your downside as well.
Hoya  
kelsto811 : 9/9/2017 7:41 am : link
You may hear less about CJ because he isn't in the main slate...at least on FD and I believe DK is the same?

I also think you make a fair point on Bell+Johnson. It leaves you with little room although I honestly think guys like Sanu, Kupp, Wright, (guys on that level) are going to be the plays taking down the big money
RE: Despite the whole hashtag thing  
WillVAB : 9/9/2017 9:55 am : link
In comment 13589105 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
I think fewer people than expected will go Bell + Johnson.

You need to punt too far on WR IMO.

One player that I'm surprised hasn't gotten more mention on the podcasts is CJ Anderson.

Very cheap. Far from a sure thing, but if his early carries are productive could get a ton of work.

The skeptic in me feels like he is one of the plays that the experts are keeping for themselves in GPP lineups while they feed Gurley and Hyde to the masses.

That's not to hate on the Gurley / Hyde recommendation. I think you can make a very balanced and strong cash lineup in DK by going Gurley + Hyde + CJ. If you combine those guys cost vs production, I think you can pretty easily lock in 3X. Upside is a little limited by high expected ownership on TG and CH, but if it's a reasonably small cash game, high ownership protects your downside as well.


With you on the Hyde rec. I know he'll get all of the touches but I just don't think there's enough upside to roster him for GPP's.

Re: Bell/Johnson jam, it's possible without predictable punts at WR. Just have to go cheap at QB/TE/DEF.
Saw this interesting info on RG  
kelsto811 : 9/9/2017 11:49 am : link
RE: preseason targets

Pierre Garηon – 28% of preseason targets
Zach Ertz – 21%
Marvin Jones – 37%
Jack Doyle – 24%
Tedd Ginn – 27%
Steeling Shepard – 32%
Mohammad Sanu – 37%

Take it for what it's worth
Oh and..  
kelsto811 : 9/9/2017 11:51 am : link
The Bears are already missing Amukamara. Can't see how there's not a big game from Jones, Sanu, maybe Hooper
RE: Saw this interesting info on RG  
WillVAB : 9/9/2017 12:31 pm : link
In comment 13589277 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
RE: preseason targets

Pierre Garηon – 28% of preseason targets
Zach Ertz – 21%
Marvin Jones – 37%
Jack Doyle – 24%
Tedd Ginn – 27%
Steeling Shepard – 32%
Mohammad Sanu – 37%

Take it for what it's worth


Love Marvin Jones this week at his price -- especially w news that Peterson is supposed to shadow Tate.
CLV: Coleman  
stoneman : 9/9/2017 12:53 pm : link
Browns will be behind most of the game, lots of garbage passing yards here.

Also, since the TE position bites this week, mind as well go cheap here with Engram and spend the money elsewhere.

Love this thread BTW - hopefully each week
RE: CLV: Coleman  
WillVAB : 9/9/2017 2:34 pm : link
In comment 13589342 stoneman said:
Quote:
Browns will be behind most of the game, lots of garbage passing yards here.

Also, since the TE position bites this week, mind as well go cheap here with Engram and spend the money elsewhere.

Love this thread BTW - hopefully each week


Coleman is intriguing. I have a little exposure but generally went a different way w lineup construction.

Like Engram this week. I don't think TE sucks -- a lot of intriguing options if you wanted to pay up a little. Bennett, Walker, Ertz, etc. Graham/Eifert on the higher end.
Good luck today guys  
WillVAB : 9/10/2017 9:21 am : link
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Yup, good luck all!  
kelsto811 : 9/10/2017 11:59 am : link
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Weird, weird week  
Kevin in CT : 9/11/2017 9:14 am : link
Broke even so can't complain but so many duds from some guys like Crowder, Murray, and Palmer.

Glad I played the Rams and Eagles defense this week.

Cooper Kupp is going to be a PPR machine quickly.
It could have been a good week  
YAJ2112 : 9/11/2017 10:36 am : link
if I hadn't decided to swap out Cohen and the Rams D because I had more $ after pulling out OBJ.
RE: It could have been a good week  
WillVAB : 9/11/2017 3:26 pm : link
In comment 13593792 YAJ2112 said:
Quote:
if I hadn't decided to swap out Cohen and the Rams D because I had more $ after pulling out OBJ.


Ouch.

Winning lineup for millionaire maker was:

Wentz
Gurley
McCoy
Brown
Fitz
Crabtree
Ertz
Cohen
Rams D.

4 of those plays were considered the chalk heading into the slate.

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