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Why PFF Is useless

Emil : 9/11/2017 12:10 pm
I get it, everybody is in love with analytics, but look at these tweets from PFF and please tell me how they tell the tale of last night.

"Giants didn't get dominated up front as many think.
Pugh, Jerry, Hart all had run block grades above 76.4 - only 12 rushes, 0 MTs for RBs."

My question, is 12 rushes really enough of a sample size to matter. Also, where were the running lanes then?

"Eli Manning saw the 3rd-least pressure of any QB this week (19.5%). Easy to blame the offensive line."

What game were they watching? Eli had to elude pressure on just about every other dop back.

"RG John Jerry allowed 2 sacks, 2 hurries on 45 pass blocks (73.4 overall).
RT Bobby Hart allowed three pressures, but still finished with a 77.5 overall grade - ranked 16th among tackles on the week."

Again, what game were they watching. These guys were getting beat all night.

To me, the most damning stat is the Roger Lewis Jr led the team in receiving yards. There is all sorts of blame to go around here. No one on offense played well, and there is no doubt in my mind that many times there was no one open, and on other occassions Eli had no time to hit the open man or simply missed him. Sean Lee was reading Eli all night and effectively took away the middle of the field on critical passing downs. Hoping next week will be better, but it needs to be a complete 180 from last night.


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yet people, including nfl teams, live and die with these  
micky : 9/11/2017 12:14 pm : link
analytics as if it's truth. stats can be manipulated to make things look greater than they really are to fit ones agenda
first  
giants#1 : 9/11/2017 12:15 pm : link
They're right about the RBs need to make more plays. If Perkins makes one guy miss on his goalline run, I think he scores.

Not sure how Jerry could get an 'average' grade when he gave up 2 sacks + 2 pressures (assuming those are actually accurate). That's a horrid performance.

Finally, with regards to their total pressure, I bet they take their QB pressures and simply divide it by the total # of passing plays. But on how many of those plays did Eli get rid of it in <2.5 seconds? Hard (even for this OL) to give up pressure that quickly.
We failed even try to establish the run  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 9/11/2017 12:24 pm : link
We should have run more, that's the problem.
RE: We failed even try to establish the run  
giants#1 : 9/11/2017 12:25 pm : link
In comment 13594134 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
We should have run more, that's the problem.


You have to sustain drives first. Or have the D get you the ball back quickly.
RE: first  
santacruzom : 9/11/2017 12:26 pm : link
In comment 13594107 giants#1 said:
Quote:
T

Not sure how Jerry could get an 'average' grade when he gave up 2 sacks + 2 pressures (assuming those are actually accurate). That's a horrid performance.



It could just be an overall indictment of league-wide OL play.
OL played better second half  
djm : 9/11/2017 12:32 pm : link
but got off to a shaky start. Better QB and RBs could have mitigated some of the problems early that didn't happen.

Perkins bores the shit out of me. Doesn't break many tackles. No power. No wow speed. No sizzle. Wake me up when this gets a lot out of something or something out of nothing. It virtually NEVER happens.

And Gallman isn't active. Wonderful.
again  
djm : 9/11/2017 12:33 pm : link
the giants OL did NOT get beat all night. They had moments where they controlled the line but the results still didn't manifest.

Watch the game again. Watch every play. THE OL had both good and bad moments and for the most part the run blocking was good enough. I can only think of 1-2 moments where the RB had little to no chance.
RE: RE: first  
Devon : 9/11/2017 12:35 pm : link
In comment 13594142 santacruzom said:
Quote:
In comment 13594107 giants#1 said:


Quote:


T

Not sure how Jerry could get an 'average' grade when he gave up 2 sacks + 2 pressures (assuming those are actually accurate). That's a horrid performance.





It could just be an overall indictment of league-wide OL play.


That's not how PFF grades. There's no adjustment for competition level or league-wide performance, in theory.
RE: RE: first  
giants#1 : 9/11/2017 12:43 pm : link
In comment 13594142 santacruzom said:
Quote:
In comment 13594107 giants#1 said:


Quote:


T

Not sure how Jerry could get an 'average' grade when he gave up 2 sacks + 2 pressures (assuming those are actually accurate). That's a horrid performance.





It could just be an overall indictment of league-wide OL play.


If everyone plays like Jerry, the average should be in the 50s, not 70s. They don't curve the grades. A OG giving up a pressure/sack on 10% of his passing snaps should be on the bench.
That just tells me that OL play around the league is pretty damn lousy  
Simms11 : 9/11/2017 12:53 pm : link
.
I thought Jerry's score was too high  
jcn56 : 9/11/2017 12:54 pm : link
but to santa's point - it is indicative of the league wide OL play.

Forget the score - look at the comparative rankings. Hart was 16th overall. Right smack in the middle.

If you watched yesterday's games (as I did - the early games were fun, the afternoon was not, and the evening game was a root canal) - you saw shit OL play killing people all over the league.

The one game where I said to myself 'man, I wish Eli had this kind of protection' just happened to be the Colts/Rams game, where Goff had all day.

That could be in part because of a revamped OL, with big money spent on Whitworth. Could also be that the Colts are crap - they certainly looked like it. Only time will tell in that case.
Bill James once wrote  
81_Great_Dane : 9/11/2017 12:55 pm : link
that a new stat that is never surprising probably isn't worth much, but a new stat that is always surprising is probably wrong.

I don't think we should reject what PFF says because it's surprising. Honestly, I thought the Giants O-line was ok a lot of the night. Of course he was under pressure some of the time, but it's the NFL, that's going to happen. It felt like there were a lot of plays where Eli was back there looking... and looking... looking.. and finally dumped the ball off to a nearby running back.

So for me, the question is: If PFF is right ant the O-line was okay last night, why was the offense so bad?
What does PFF  
crick n NC : 9/11/2017 1:07 pm : link
Use to grade players? To properly grade a field of 22 players, I would think the coaches film (all 22) view would be the best way.
RE: What does PFF  
Devon : 9/11/2017 1:15 pm : link
In comment 13594254 crick n NC said:
Quote:
Use to grade players? To properly grade a field of 22 players, I would think the coaches film (all 22) view would be the best way.


These first numbers come from a handful of guys watching live on thr normal feed we all do, charting through a program as they go, and turning in data pretty much right after the game.

Then they claim to adjust them after the All 22 and then have one of their experts double check them after that, later on.
RE: RE: We failed even try to establish the run  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 9/11/2017 1:24 pm : link
In comment 13594140 giants#1 said:
Quote:
In comment 13594134 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


We should have run more, that's the problem.



You have to sustain drives first. Or have the D get you the ball back quickly.


We were in third in longs because we passed way to much to start the game. Perkins runs for 4 yards and then pass, pass, punt. I would have loved to see a little more run, run, pass. Get us into more favorable yardage on 3rd down to sustain those drives. 12 carries is not enough to get it done in the run game.

Also, you have to take what the defense is giving you. Passing while everyone is dropping into zone coverage is not helping the situation.
RE: Bill James once wrote  
giants#1 : 9/11/2017 1:26 pm : link
In comment 13594228 81_Great_Dane said:
Quote:
that a new stat that is never surprising probably isn't worth much, but a new stat that is always surprising is probably wrong.

I don't think we should reject what PFF says because it's surprising. Honestly, I thought the Giants O-line was ok a lot of the night. Of course he was under pressure some of the time, but it's the NFL, that's going to happen. It felt like there were a lot of plays where Eli was back there looking... and looking... looking.. and finally dumped the ball off to a nearby running back.

So for me, the question is: If PFF is right ant the O-line was okay last night, why was the offense so bad?


This isn't a pure stat though. It's a subjective grade.

It's like grading a math class (obvious right/wrong answers) vs an essay for english class.
So, PFF is useless because  
eclipz928 : 9/11/2017 1:58 pm : link
there information doesn't match up with your own preconceived opinion of the line?

Without a doubt the protection failed on a few big plays, but overall both pass and blocking were sufficient enough to move the ball better than what the Giants did last night.

By default, everyone tends to lean towards the easiest target when we try to assess blame after losses like this - but the issues with this team are complex and go well beyond personnel.
RE: RE: What does PFF  
crick n NC : 9/11/2017 2:02 pm : link
In comment 13594275 Devon said:
Quote:
In comment 13594254 crick n NC said:


Quote:


Use to grade players? To properly grade a field of 22 players, I would think the coaches film (all 22) view would be the best way.



These first numbers come from a handful of guys watching live on thr normal feed we all do, charting through a program as they go, and turning in data pretty much right after the game.

Then they claim to adjust them after the All 22 and then have one of their experts double check them after that, later on.


Thanks Devon
I am doing my study on the OL right now  
Sy'56 : 9/11/2017 2:41 pm : link
They didn't play well...but they've been worse.

There is truth behind the fact Perkins created nothing by himself and Eli rushed several passes when he didn't need to.
Evaluating the offense...  
Dan in the Springs : 9/11/2017 2:47 pm : link
which I haven't done yet, will really be pretty simple I think. There just weren't enough plays made.

Remember that most of the offensive plays were made in the second half. Lots late in the game.

The problem was that the Giants had no success early on - couldn't get a drive going throughout the entire first half. They had ONE drive in the third quarter. Suddenly, it was the fourth quarter, they were moving the ball fairly well again like they had to open the third, and Eli threw a terrible pick.

Essentially that was the game. You could tell up to that point that the offense was starting to figure things out, but it was too little too late.

So few snaps early on.

Another observation - it was late in the game and my son asked me how many carries for negative yards Perkins had. I couldn't remember any to that point. The offense got itself into a lot of manageable third downs early on but couldn't convert on any of them.

Can't wait to watch the film, and even more importantly, can't wait to put this week behind me and get on to Detroit.
RE: I am doing my study on the OL right now  
BrettNYG10 : 9/11/2017 3:19 pm : link
In comment 13594470 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
They didn't play well...but they've been worse.

There is truth behind the fact Perkins created nothing by himself and Eli rushed several passes when he didn't need to.


I felt like Eli has performed well under inferior conditions. The OL is bad, but I didn't think it was 2013 bad.
RE: RE: I am doing my study on the OL right now  
crick n NC : 9/11/2017 4:38 pm : link
In comment 13594519 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 13594470 Sy'56 said:


Quote:


They didn't play well...but they've been worse.

There is truth behind the fact Perkins created nothing by himself and Eli rushed several passes when he didn't need to.



I felt like Eli has performed well under inferior conditions. The OL is bad, but I didn't think it was 2013 bad.


Brett he has in the past. In my opinion all of the years of Eli not trusting his OL has made quite an impact to this point. Eli's problem to me is mental vs physical, he can still play, but his qb clock is screwed up. Not an easy fix without consistent good protection from his ON which may bring that trust back
ON=OL  
crick n NC : 9/11/2017 4:39 pm : link
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