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Eli washed up? Not by the numbers!

gogiants : 9/13/2017 8:35 pm
After the opener loss to the Cowboys it is amazing how many are saying Eli is washed up, the weak link on the team, the problem with the Giants. One game does not justify these comments. From a statistical view Eli has been playing some of the best ball of his career.

Eli Manning was in the top 10 quarterbacks for TDs for each of the last three seasons, including 3rd place in 2015. His 3 year TD average per game would put him in 7th place among all 32 starting quarterbacks. His touchdown percentage or touchdowns per attempts is tie for ninth out of 32 starting quarterbacks. Eli has improved his game over the last three years in almost every statistic. In the table below blue highlights improvements, yellow items stayed the same and orange is a a regression.



This comparison throws out his first year and looks at 2005-2013 compared to the last three seasons. In 2005-2013 the Giants had only one losing record, made the playoffs 5 of the 9 years and won 2 Super Bowls. In almost every stat Eli is plaing better the last three years than over those prior 9 years.

Eli is a great clutch quarterback. He is in the top ten of all time for game winning drives and 4th quarter comebacks. If you think that is a thing of the past just last year he had 6 game winning drives. That was the 3rd best for the season. He also had three 4th quarter comebacks which was good for 7th best out of 32 quarterbacks. Not since his last Super Bowl has he had as many game winning drives and comebacks. Eli made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2015, one of his only 4 appearances.

Out of the three years (2013-2016) he slumped off a little in 2016 but he still beat his career average in completion %, yards, interception %, yards/game, passer rating, sack %, game winning drives and 4th quarter comebacks. He led the team to an 11-5 record and the playoffs. He dropped below his average in TD % and yards/attempt but not by much. The team's 11-5 record was tie for the 2nd best of Eli's career.

Eli is still tough, durable, smart, well prepared, clutch, a leader and has a tremendous work ethic. Eli had a better passer rating than Tom Brady this past weekend. Maybe Brady is washed up too.
You shouldn't mix facts with knee-jerk reactions  
PatersonPlank : 9/13/2017 8:54 pm : link
.
Sadly since Super Bowl 46  
Hereditaryemperor : 9/13/2017 9:12 pm : link
when I thought he'd turn that corner, he's just proven to me he's not as good as most in the league. Doesn't help Reese doesn't know how to assemble an OL.
Great post  
rocco8112 : 9/13/2017 9:13 pm : link
QB Rating is a bullshit stat.
RE: Sadly since Super Bowl 46  
PatersonPlank : 9/13/2017 9:21 pm : link
In comment 13598108 Hereditaryemperor said:
Quote:
when I thought he'd turn that corner, he's just proven to me he's not as good as most in the league. Doesn't help Reese doesn't know how to assemble an OL.


So since his 2nd SB win and 2nd SB MVP he's disappointed you?
Cherry picked stats  
allstarjim : 9/13/2017 9:22 pm : link
To say whatever I want the desired conclusion to be. You should go into politics, OP.
I'd like to see Eli's stats broken down..  
Sean : 9/13/2017 9:25 pm : link
Beckham vs everyone else.
Why is it a 3 year sample?  
allstarjim : 9/13/2017 10:01 pm : link
Without this being an attack on Eli, is it not reasonable that 2014 and 2015 could be irrelevant as to if he has started to seriously decline?
Whyis everyone  
djstat : 9/13/2017 10:35 pm : link
Over reacting to one lousy game. The entire offense was lousy. The Line, the WR, the RB's all of them. Eli had a bad game. Defense played GREAT.

Hold an offense like Dallas to 19 and in truth 12 accept the refs gift wrapped a TD for Dallas. CHILL
A few comments  
gogiants : 9/13/2017 10:50 pm : link
1) Not cherry picked stats. I showed all the major stats shown on pro-football-reference.com. Even the few that stayed the same or got worse.

2) Good point on why 3 years. You could argue that he only recently declined. But what is that based on? Not just the Dallas game. Last year was not as good as 2014 and 2015 but he did get us to 11-5 and had those game winning drives.

3) Just a note that if our defense was not as bad as they were in 2014 and 2015 that the last three years could have been the best record stretch of Eli's career. Our offense was top 10 in both passing yards and TDs for both years.
RE: A few comments  
rocco8112 : 9/13/2017 11:12 pm : link
In comment 13598168 gogiants said:
Quote:
1) Not cherry picked stats. I showed all the major stats shown on pro-football-reference.com. Even the few that stayed the same or got worse.

2) Good point on why 3 years. You could argue that he only recently declined. But what is that based on? Not just the Dallas game. Last year was not as good as 2014 and 2015 but he did get us to 11-5 and had those game winning drives.

3) Just a note that if our defense was not as bad as they were in 2014 and 2015 that the last three years could have been the best record stretch of Eli's career. Our offense was top 10 in both passing yards and TDs for both years.


Point three is interesting. There were times, particularly in 2015, where I wondered if the Giants had even a league average defense they could have made some noise. Now, it is the exact reverse situation.

One thing this post makes clear is that Eli and the passing game have consistently produced. I think it is also important to note this was done without a running game. The Giants have been one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL for many seasons now.
Somebody with a brain.  
ZGiants98 : 9/13/2017 11:24 pm : link
Well done sir.
Watch him play  
Joey in VA : 9/14/2017 12:00 am : link
You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.
RE: Watch him play  
ZGiants98 : 9/14/2017 12:26 am : link
In comment 13598189 Joey in VA said:
Quote:
You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.


He was fantastic in his second to last game in Green Bay so how small do we want to make the sample? Guess just the Cowboys huh?
RE: Sadly since Super Bowl 46  
map7711 : 9/14/2017 8:19 am : link
In comment 13598108 Hereditaryemperor said:
Quote:
when I thought he'd turn that corner, he's just proven to me he's not as good as most in the league. Doesn't help Reese doesn't know how to assemble an OL.


My God. This is what we've come too. Now Eli is not as good as most QBs in the league. My guess here is that most of the Eli haters are probably younger than 35. Don't have any clue on what a bad QB looks like. All they know is fantasy football and the highlights on ESPN. Well Eli doesn't get as many fantasy points as these other QBs, he must not be as good!!
RE: RE: Watch him play  
Joey in VA : 9/14/2017 8:46 am : link
In comment 13598199 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 13598189 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.



He was fantastic in his second to last game in Green Bay so how small do we want to make the sample? Guess just the Cowboys huh?
You're kidding right? You point out one game and tell me I can't point out one game? That makes total sense. Jesus you're fucking stupid.
RE: RE: RE: Watch him play  
map7711 : 9/14/2017 8:49 am : link
In comment 13598263 Joey in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 13598199 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 13598189 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.



He was fantastic in his second to last game in Green Bay so how small do we want to make the sample? Guess just the Cowboys huh?

You're kidding right? You point out one game and tell me I can't point out one game? That makes total sense. Jesus you're fucking stupid.


Joey please see the link. Educate yourself please. Come back when you have learned something.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Watch him play  
BigBlueWhale : 9/14/2017 8:49 am : link
In comment 13598189 Joey in VA said:
Quote:
You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.


Yup. This is starting to get ridiculous.
RE: RE: RE: Watch him play  
ZGiants98 : 9/14/2017 10:36 am : link
In comment 13598263 Joey in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 13598199 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 13598189 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.



He was fantastic in his second to last game in Green Bay so how small do we want to make the sample? Guess just the Cowboys huh?

You're kidding right? You point out one game and tell me I can't point out one game? That makes total sense. Jesus you're fucking stupid.


Huh? This post is about a three year sample? I asked you what or where your evidence of demise is and pointed out literally two games ago he was in top form. Are you not able to connect the dots between what I'm saying and the correlation to the OP? I'm stupid?
I took the liberty of re-parsing your data  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/14/2017 11:32 am : link
I broke it out into three sets: 2005-2013 (the TC/KG era); 2014-2015 (the TC/BMc era); 2016-2017 (the BMc HC era). What it shows is a fairly stark decline for Eli:



Here are the major takeaways for me:

- McAdoo's offense (as OC) was wildly more efficient and effective than Gilbride's
- Eli's Y/A had increased in '14-'15, but have decreased significantly last season and this past week
- Eli's Y/G had shown a major increase in '14-'15, but have regressed to slightly above '05-'13 levels
- Eli was sacked less frequently once McAdoo took over as OC, and has been sacked even less than that since McAdoo took over as HC

What do we take from all of this? It's not necessarily simple to say. But it does imply that Eli has gotten skittish and is rushing to get the ball out despite the fact that he is being sacked less frequently than he was earlier in his career. The Y/A stat could be related to that (and probably is), but could also be related to a decreased comfort level in throwing longer medium-range passes. What it definitely shows, IMO, is that it's not entirely on the OL, and that we may very well be witnessing Father Time winning the pass rush battle against Eli.
RE: I took the liberty of re-parsing your data  
rocco8112 : 9/14/2017 11:47 am : link
In comment 13598468 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
I broke it out into three sets: 2005-2013 (the TC/KG era); 2014-2015 (the TC/BMc era); 2016-2017 (the BMc HC era). What it shows is a fairly stark decline for Eli:



Here are the major takeaways for me:

- McAdoo's offense (as OC) was wildly more efficient and effective than Gilbride's
- Eli's Y/A had increased in '14-'15, but have decreased significantly last season and this past week
- Eli's Y/G had shown a major increase in '14-'15, but have regressed to slightly above '05-'13 levels
- Eli was sacked less frequently once McAdoo took over as OC, and has been sacked even less than that since McAdoo took over as HC

What do we take from all of this? It's not necessarily simple to say. But it does imply that Eli has gotten skittish and is rushing to get the ball out despite the fact that he is being sacked less frequently than he was earlier in his career. The Y/A stat could be related to that (and probably is), but could also be related to a decreased comfort level in throwing longer medium-range passes. What it definitely shows, IMO, is that it's not entirely on the OL, and that we may very well be witnessing Father Time winning the pass rush battle against Eli.


Maybe Eli is done. But, there was a major change going into 2016. McAdoo as HC. Since he has taken the helm the offense has been the worst of the Eli era. Now, we have a full season to go here in 2017, but game one the offense sucked. As OC Coughlin still running the show the offense was productive. The largest change from the last productive year (2015),until now, is the promoting of McAdoo to the top job. Maybe he is a major cause.

You can twist stats to prove any point that you want..  
EricJ : 9/14/2017 12:17 pm : link
just on the ones highlited you can say that he did not decline in those areas BUT you could also say that since his true full rookie season (2005), he has not improved. Which would you like to go with?

In the end, I don't care about stats. I care about wins and the overall performance of the offense when you are measuring a QB. We don't need Eli to win fantasy football championships for us. We need him to guide the offense to victory.

What I see is that this team has the same shot of winning a game with OBJ in the game with Geno as QB, as it does with OBJ out of the lineup with Eli at QB. Not that we would ever get to test that theory but that is my assessment. Eli cannot run this offense without OBJ... period. What does that say about Eli, the coaching, the play calling, the rest of the offense? It is not all on Eli.

Right now, Eli is not putting the team on his back and carrying them over the goal line.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Watch him play  
UberAlias : 9/14/2017 12:46 pm : link
In comment 13598406 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 13598263 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


In comment 13598199 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 13598189 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


You won't see a QB who is getting it done. Beyond that I'm not sure what to tell you because your eyes cannot be trusted if you see stats and conclude he's still a good QB.



He was fantastic in his second to last game in Green Bay so how small do we want to make the sample? Guess just the Cowboys huh?

You're kidding right? You point out one game and tell me I can't point out one game? That makes total sense. Jesus you're fucking stupid.



Huh? This post is about a three year sample? I asked you what or where your evidence of demise is and pointed out literally two games ago he was in top form. Are you not able to connect the dots between what I'm saying and the correlation to the OP? I'm stupid?
The team scored 13 points in that GB game and got blown out. He completed 52% of his passes for 6.8 average, 1 TD, 1INT and a lost fumble and 72QBR. I would not exactly call that fantastic.
RE: You can twist stats to prove any point that you want..  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/14/2017 1:21 pm : link
In comment 13598536 EricJ said:
Quote:
just on the ones highlited you can say that he did not decline in those areas BUT you could also say that since his true full rookie season (2005), he has not improved. Which would you like to go with?

In the end, I don't care about stats. I care about wins and the overall performance of the offense when you are measuring a QB. We don't need Eli to win fantasy football championships for us. We need him to guide the offense to victory.

What I see is that this team has the same shot of winning a game with OBJ in the game with Geno as QB, as it does with OBJ out of the lineup with Eli at QB. Not that we would ever get to test that theory but that is my assessment. Eli cannot run this offense without OBJ... period. What does that say about Eli, the coaching, the play calling, the rest of the offense? It is not all on Eli.

Right now, Eli is not putting the team on his back and carrying them over the goal line.

You can say that he did not decline? Go for it. The data is all right there for you to interpret however you'd like.

All I did was re-parse the data. The OP had included 2014 and 2015 in the "current" set which was misleading because it bundled Eli's two best seasons with his worst season in years.

The reality is, he's not getting sacked more frequently, despite all the hand-wringing about the OL. In fact, he's getting sacked less frequently. He just doesn't trust the OL, or his arm, or both. But he's definitely part of the problem, not a victim of circumstance.

And if you want to knock McAdoo, have at it. I don't have a dog in that fight. But what I will say is that between Eli's freedom to check at the line and what appears to be his desire to check down in live action, I don't think we're getting a true look at McAdoo's offense anymore. BMc is too diplomatic to call Eli out for it though.
Eli did not lead us to an 11-5 record last year.  
allstarjim : 9/14/2017 1:25 pm : link
The defense did.

Giants were 25th in total offense last year. The only teams that were worse were the Jets, Broncos, Vikings, Texans, Browns, Niners and Rams. All teams with unsettled QB situations (or a QB that was in his rookie year).

In passing offense they were middle of the pack at 17th but 24th in yards/attempt. The 26 TDs were ok but the 16 INTs weren't great, they were 22nd ranked from a team INT perspective. Tied with Jacksonville, who nearly cut Blake Bortles, and Houston, who ran Osweiler out of town.

The most important stat is points. You win by scoring more points than the other team. The Giants were 26th in the NFL in points. We scored 310 points last year. Jacksonville scored more points than us. And even then, those points aren't completely in the offense's ledger. They got 4 defense/special teams TDs (Landon Collins INT return, Jenkins blocked kick return, and fumble returns by Trevin Wade and JPP). That's a pretty good number for a defense.

An offense that is responsible for 282 points over 16 games is a 17.625 points per game offense. No QB in charge of such an offense can say he is doing his job.

There's a good reason that some stats have appeared to improve. Eli gets sacked less, his completion % is up, and his yards per attempt is down. Makes sense for a quick, short passing offense, but it doesn't help the offense sustain drives.

Here's another stat: In 2016, the Giants were 31st out of 32 teams in scoring effiency...that is, the percentage of drives that result in points. Next to last at 28%. Yes, the Bears and the Browns were better last year. They were 27th in the NFL in points per drive, and 25th in the NFL in TDs per drive. In number of plays per drive, they were 28th, at just 5.58 plays. Only the Rams had a higher 3 and out percentage than the Giants last year.

It doesn't matter how you slice it, or what metric you use, Eli Manning led the Giants last year to a bottom five offense in the NFL. Is there blame to go around, yes. The running game was bad. The Offensive Line was offensive. Victor Cruz was not a good fit outside opposite Beckham. McAdoo's play-calling and even offensive philosophy probably isn't a great fit for Eli. But you cannot absolve Eli of this. He HAS to play better, regardless of adversity around him. And every QB faces adversity, btw. Every team has games where the OL play isn't winning, or they can't get a running game going. A lot of other QBs must overcome those things and they often do. Eli did not last year, and you can throw completion % stats at me or yardage totals at me but I'm not impressed.



RE: RE: I took the liberty of re-parsing your data  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/14/2017 1:33 pm : link
In comment 13598491 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
In comment 13598468 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


I broke it out into three sets: 2005-2013 (the TC/KG era); 2014-2015 (the TC/BMc era); 2016-2017 (the BMc HC era). What it shows is a fairly stark decline for Eli:



Here are the major takeaways for me:

- McAdoo's offense (as OC) was wildly more efficient and effective than Gilbride's
- Eli's Y/A had increased in '14-'15, but have decreased significantly last season and this past week
- Eli's Y/G had shown a major increase in '14-'15, but have regressed to slightly above '05-'13 levels
- Eli was sacked less frequently once McAdoo took over as OC, and has been sacked even less than that since McAdoo took over as HC

What do we take from all of this? It's not necessarily simple to say. But it does imply that Eli has gotten skittish and is rushing to get the ball out despite the fact that he is being sacked less frequently than he was earlier in his career. The Y/A stat could be related to that (and probably is), but could also be related to a decreased comfort level in throwing longer medium-range passes. What it definitely shows, IMO, is that it's not entirely on the OL, and that we may very well be witnessing Father Time winning the pass rush battle against Eli.



Maybe Eli is done. But, there was a major change going into 2016. McAdoo as HC. Since he has taken the helm the offense has been the worst of the Eli era. Now, we have a full season to go here in 2017, but game one the offense sucked. As OC Coughlin still running the show the offense was productive. The largest change from the last productive year (2015),until now, is the promoting of McAdoo to the top job. Maybe he is a major cause.

Or maybe you're making a causation/correlation error. It's entirely possible that McAdoo's ascent to the HC spot just happened to coincide with Eli's decline. That doesn't mean that it caused Eli's decline.

Many here want to point to the OL, yet Eli is getting sacked less frequently than in the other data sets. And if you want to point to the offense itself, that's fine, but it could be Eli himself checking out of plays and/or checking down in live action (as I mentioned in my previous post).

What's almost impossible to declare is "Eli washed up? Not by the numbers!" based on the numbers when they're properly parsed. That doesn't mean that he is washed up, per se; just that you can't make that declaration based on his numbers. His stats are troubling. It could be outside influence, such as the OL or playcalling. But it sure doesn't show that he's overcoming that to the extent that anyone could say without a shadow of doubt that he's not part of the problem.
Yes the offense sucks now  
rocco8112 : 9/14/2017 2:20 pm : link
It is clear to anyone and I am sure Eli knows is sucks. It has NOT sucked though for almost every season since Eli has been the starter. The biggest change to the team from 2015 to the present horseshit offense was the promotion of McAdoo to HC
RE: Yes the offense sucks now  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/14/2017 2:46 pm : link
In comment 13598679 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
It is clear to anyone and I am sure Eli knows is sucks. It has NOT sucked though for almost every season since Eli has been the starter. The biggest change to the team from 2015 to the present horseshit offense was the promotion of McAdoo to HC

AND Eli getting older. He's not a robot. He's a human being. Pro athletes age just like we age. He might just be in decline.
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