But it’s hard to pass up on a game changer. We already drafted a QB. Need to play Webb some to see what we have. If he looks decent, I’d take Barkey first Pick.
Can we at least give the highly regarded 3rd Rd pick a chance before we go stampeding for the QBs?
Highly regarded by...?
No one on this board is probably higher on Saquon Barkley than I am, but they're not going to take him. This is their shot to take the next franchise QB and, with how they operate and how QB is next up on the chopping block of blame, that's where they'll almost certainly go.
I would love to get the #1 pick and then do what the 49ers did. Use the leverage of the top QB's to get someone to give up multiple picks to move back a few spots.
Pick Barkley like 3rd or 4th. THen have all those picks to sure up the offensive line and other positions of need.
RE: Take Saquon and give him no OLine to block for him Â
With Buffalo for both of their 1st/2nds this year and their 1st/2nd next year. That's five premium picks in '18 and four in '19 to rebuild the OL and add talent on defense.
With Buffalo for both of their 1st/2nds this year and their 1st/2nd next year. That's five premium picks in '18 and four in '19 to rebuild the OL and add talent on defense.
A 37 year old qb who has not won a playoff game in 7 years and just been to 1 and is showing not to be the same and you trade down or take a rb or tackle? When there are like 3 to 4 qb who are highly rated and thought off to be franchise qb/s just because of your infatuation with Eli? Eli is an Giants icon and will leave the team and be able to always be part of the Giants family after his days. You do not get handed a golden chance like this to try and rebuild for Eli when this team needs tons more than just a rb or tackle..Time to blow it all up
The OT or Rosen (if we decide Webb was a wasted pick) Â
assuming there's a tackle there they think could be a perennial all pro type. You almost have to go all out for the best QB though. It's rare that a team gets in this situation where they're able to replace a good but older QB with a blue chip first rounder. Not many teams luck out like the Packers or Colts did in replacing Favre and Manning. That might be Giants come draft time depending on where they finish and who's available.
If you question this, please watch Wentz with the Eagles and you’ll learn.
This is arguably the deepest QB class and up there against the big ones in
NFL history with QB types for every offensive scheme there is.
This is not a good OL draft if you’re looking for a blue goose LT. Taking Barkley would be an awful decision that would cost this team years and years of building properly.
If you question this, please watch Wentz with the Eagles and you’ll learn.
This is arguably the deepest QB class and up there against the big ones in
NFL history with QB types for every offensive scheme there is.
This is not a good OL draft if you’re looking for a blue goose LT. Taking Barkley would be an awful decision that would cost this team years and years of building properly.
Both Dallas and Philly have their guys. The NYG need to follow suit.
I don’t agree at all Sy. Barkley is a luxury back. He’s a great fit for a team that has a good OL and has a QB.
We need to rebuild.
We can debate later....but I think he is a franchise-changing back. Yes the OL needs to be built, but I'm not sure there is a top 10 OL talent in this class.
and a franchise QB is sitting there, we would be stupid not to take him. Eli is virtually done whether he wants it that way or not. Without a legitimate starting QB, it will be years before we are competitive again
People buy into draft hype every year about players and classes and it's bullshit.
If Reese picks a QB and is wrong, and there's a greater than 50% chance he will be wrong, it will set this franchise back a long time.
That's not a decision changer. If you have the chance to draft a franchise QB then you do. The position is just that important.
Even if we grab a QB, I think manning should have a chance next year
I disagree. As a fan, I value championships. I think acquiring a bunch of premium picks now gives the Giants the best shot to address deficiencies and put themselves in a position to win another ring over the next few years. I don't see one pick on a QB getting this team any closer to winning a championship.
I disagree. As a fan, I value championships. I think acquiring a bunch of premium picks now gives the Giants the best shot to address deficiencies and put themselves in a position to win another ring over the next few years. I don't see one pick on a QB getting this team any closer to winning a championship.
The Giants aren’t the Cleveland Browns. You take the franchise QB, then start the three year rebuild process. But the rebuild has to start with a new GM/head coach.
Been clamoring for him for weeks. Qbs are a crapshoot and the olin talent at top of draft isnt that great (a pick in top 5 would be a reach). Eli has shown he still has enough Barkley is an absolute stud if youve seen enough of his tape
Not questioning your player choice per se but with the current group of lugnuts and potentionally a worse group next year( I don't know of potential nonNYFG OL FAs) wouldn't we be better off going OL rd 1&2 ...give EF opportunity at RG and try to rebuild OL asap while we still have a nice Corp of receivers?
The Reese mess will take at least 3 years anyway...unless there are FAs in 18/19 that will come here and speed up turnaround.
makes me chuckle. Like I do when a chick talks about routes.... Have any of you actually watched Allen play this season? Or even looked at his stats? He sucks. And its not a case of him being surrounded by crappy players. His accuracy and decision-making are awful.
I get the bit about the QB's too. Darnold was the guy, but his struggles has thrown the wrench in the can't miss hyperbole. Rosen ha stud talent, but his attitude in NYC scares me. After that there's some really intriguing talent that will become available; and the balance of the season will bear that out.
Right now though Barkley looks like he can carry an offense in the mold of the old time dominant backs like Sanders, like Dickerson, and Simpson. His collection of speed, size, vision, and change of direction don't come around ... ever. If a QB steps up n front him, I get it. For me it would have to be Darnold getting right and living up to he hype. But right now Saquon is the real deal and could have QB like impact.
1 – Someone needs to pay attention to WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico State; there is too much size, speed and talent not too.
2 – I said it last week and I’ll say once again this week; USC Sam Darnold is a very talent quarterback who is not ready for the NFL. Stop pushing him into a level he is not ready for.
4 – I keep waiting for Penn State RB Saquan Barkley to show me that he might not be THE best player in this coming draft. So far it hasn’t happened.
7 – The most improved QB so far this season is Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. His play from the pocket has been improving from week to week. Credit to the coaching and to Kelly who seems to be very coachable. The difference in Kelly’s improved play and coaching is leaps and bounds better than what USC is accomplishing with its high profile quarterback.
9 – Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is an excellent athlete playing the quarterback position. He reminds me a lot of RGIII.
10 – There is something lacking in UCLA Josh Rosen’s game and I know what it is. It’s something quarterbacks have to have to win the big games consistently and it has nothing to do with talent. It’s the same problem the Charges QB Philip Rivers has.
Of the things Boylhart has to say there. Darnold has not fully figured it out yet, but his timing and anticipation is second to none.
His statement on Rosen is highly questionable. Major comeback to take down a really good SEC team almost all on his own speaks volumes to me about what he’s capable of if he had a better team around him. And you know what else, Philip Rivers is a damn good quarterback.
but you could pencil in they likely go QB, DE, or LT in that order unless another playmaker rises to the top. They will look at premium skill positions first.
wonder if he will stick around for 1 more year as they play Bama in the 2018 opener. A big showcase for him or a way to avoid exposure against elite teams that Louisville has issues with.
put me in the trade down club. If there was a chance to get 9 picks in the first two rounds of 2018-19, I'd take the nine picks and roll the dice with Eli. I still like Webb a lot too. Furthermore, what's needed is an infusion of top talent that a new regime could build the future of this team upon. Not much right now that you want to count of four to six years down the road, as much as I hate to admit it.
is irresponsible. We have a guy with the size and skills, who had a senior year at Cal the same or better than the guys coming out, and who has shown favorably. He needs to be given some type of chance before we run off to use another top pick on another unproven QB, just because some publication says that this is a good year for QB's.
I've watched most of these guys a few times now. Outside of Rosen I'm not sure I like any of them. I see lots of hype.
wonder if he will stick around for 1 more year as they play Bama in the 2018 opener. A big showcase for him or a way to avoid exposure against elite teams that Louisville has issues with.
Why would him leaving be looked as him avoiding Alabama?
Based on yesterday we might be a little short handed Â
put me in the trade down club. If there was a chance to get 9 picks in the first two rounds of 2018-19, I'd take the nine picks and roll the dice with Eli. I still like Webb a lot too. Furthermore, what's needed is an infusion of top talent that a new regime could build the future of this team upon. Not much right now that you want to count of four to six years down the road, as much as I hate to admit it.
trade down for more picks and some top picks for 2019 draft
I realize he isn't ready, but the Giants situation with Eli means he won't have to play in 2018 and their situation with Davis Webb means he might not even have to play after that. But his upside is too great to ignore. He's not Aaron Rodgers mobile, but he's a good athlete for a man his size and is a GREAT thrower on the run. I think that's incredibly important in the league now.
I like Olsen, but I prefer a mobile QB to a pocket passer. I have to watch more of Josh Allen before I can formulate an opinion on him, but it's hard to see the physical tools when the offense isn't moving the ball.
Barkley is a wonderful player, but I'm completely soured on the idea of a drafting a RB when QBs are available. If there are no QBs, OL, or DL worthy of taking that high, only then would I go for Barkley.
you know, you dont need to address line by picking someone in first round. Giants in fact did spend two first rounders with the current bunch.
The problem is not that Giants drafted Beckham, problem is they did not address line well. Through bust free agent signings and bust picks like Schwartz and Flowers and even Pugh to some degree.
In fact, given the state they are in, they should pick the best player available at any position other than receiver or tight end.
This idea that the Giants did not spend resources on the line is total bunk; they did, they just did so poorly. Next GM should consider signing free agents and using right picks on the line.
With this group, I believe a solid lt will work wonders and another guard and this line will be much better. Many ways to accomplish that.
1. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St.
2. Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma
3. James Washington WR Oklahoma St.
4. Minkah Fitzpatrick CB Alabama (Jersey kid)
5. Saquon Barkley RB Penn St.
6. Arden Key DE LSU
7. Quinton Nelson G ND
8. Derwin James S Fla. St.
9. Sam Darnold QB USC
10. Ogbonnra Okornkwo OLB Oklahoma St.
Rosen didn't make the Top 20
Great Blue North
1. Darnold
2. Josh Rosen QB UCLA
3. Josh Allen QB Wyoming
4. James
5. Barkley
6. Christian Wilkins DT Clemson
7. Key
8. Tarvous McFadden CB Fla. St.
9. Brown
10. Dre'Mont Jones DT Ohio St.
Note - I think these are Colin's preseason picks while CBS has been updated.
I actually caught quite a bit of the UC Davis/Eastern Washington game this weekend, the first time I've seen my old Aggies play in quite some time. Gage Gubrud, Eastern Washington's QB just stunned the hell out of me. Now granted, there's a level of competition factor here, but I was impressed enough to look him up and it turns out that he nearly beat Steve McNair's FCS record of total yardage last year, his first year starting. He was off by 33, posting 5766 yards and 53 TD's (48 rushing).
He went to the same school as Cooper Kupp, so I have to imagine he's on scouts' radars. I wonder what round he'd go.
you know, you dont need to address line by picking someone in first round. Giants in fact did spend two first rounders with the current bunch.
The problem is not that Giants drafted Beckham, problem is they did not address line well. Through bust free agent signings and bust picks like Schwartz and Flowers and even Pugh to some degree.
In fact, given the state they are in, they should pick the best player available at any position other than receiver or tight end.
This idea that the Giants did not spend resources on the line is total bunk; they did, they just did so poorly. Next GM should consider signing free agents and using right picks on the line.
With this group, I believe a solid lt will work wonders and another guard and this line will be much better. Many ways to accomplish that.
Reese's track record with 3rd through 7th round picks is horrible. 1-2 round picks have been pretty solid. A trade down makes a ton of sense because it gives Reese the ammo to add talent in rounds he's demonstrated a high success rate.
There's a realistic shot this team could be looking for 3-5 new OL starters in a year with dogshit at OL in FA. Addressing the OL with typical Reese shitty mid to late rounders is simply unacceptable and would make the fan base lose their minds.
A trade down with Buffalo makes a ton of sense. They've made the moves they've made to acquire picks so they can have the ammo to move up for a legit franchise QB. They haven't had one since Jim Kelly. They would give it all away for a shot at a legitimate QB, and I'd gladly take it. Eli has another run in him with talent around him -- I want rings, not QB fantasy stats for the next 10 years (if we're lucky).
9 premium picks over '18 and '19 would allow the FO to get back to basics and rebuild this time the right way -- in the trenches. That's plenty of picks to rebuild the OL, add a pass rusher, and add talent/speed at LB.
We should hope reese is not making picks next year. Giants will have to select o linemen somewhere in draft and try to find a free agent.
If they trade down and stockpile picks yes great. As long as they get the right haul. But you assume reese is making the picks why would you assume he would trade down he has never done it?
We should hope reese is not making picks next year. Giants will have to select o linemen somewhere in draft and try to find a free agent.
If they trade down and stockpile picks yes great. As long as they get the right haul. But you assume reese is making the picks why would you assume he would trade down he has never done it?
I think odds are Reese sticks around. Just the way the organization seems to operate. I may be wrong.
Reese has never traded down but that doesn't mean he won't. We don't know why he hasn't traded down. We've usually picked around the middle so maybe he thought the drop was substantial. Maybe his demands are too high for partners. Who knows. What I do know is teams give up a lot to move up for a QB. We see it all the time.
His statement on Rosen is highly questionable. Major comeback to take down a really good SEC team almost all on his own speaks volumes to me about what he’s capable of if he had a better team around him. And you know what else, Philip Rivers is a damn good quarterback.
I can't say I disagree with you. Rivers is a damn good quarterback and I've never bought into the whole "can't win the big game" label for any QB, whether it be Rivers or Romo or Rosen or any other QB whose name begins with the letter R. And it's not just the letter R, there are also several other letters in the alphabet for which the label does not apply.
so, with any one player you have 33% injury or bust risk.
Made-up number for sake of discussion.
Your chance of gaining -ONE- non bust + non major injury player with three picks (trade down) as opposed to one pick, would be lowered to 11%. That's a 22% improvement.
That's your comp. Its not 1 to 1.
In addition, stock piling many picks in a known range, say 6 high second round to mid fourth round (trade ups and trade downs) would enable the staff to really focus their thinking, greatly raise the chance of finding contributing starters, and build more rational comparative internal arguments in one vs the other prospect.
There are other ways to mitigate risk, avoiding known reaches, avoiding wishful thinking in character and teachability, and knowing which positions to value stats more (such as wrs total # of receptions, dbacks INTs, etc) and which positions to value physical size and pure athletics + attitude more (D line).
If they r not available, go w Barkley.
Qb - darnold or Rossen
Lt - Adams or McGlinchey
Rb - Barkley
Barkley being the least of the top 5
Highly regarded by...?
No one on this board is probably higher on Saquon Barkley than I am, but they're not going to take him. This is their shot to take the next franchise QB and, with how they operate and how QB is next up on the chopping block of blame, that's where they'll almost certainly go.
Still need to see what Davis Webb has before taking a QB
Pick Barkley like 3rd or 4th. THen have all those picks to sure up the offensive line and other positions of need.
Saquon is that talent that would still produce behind a bad OL.
Reese won't take him though, so discussing him seems moot.
I like this idea
If you question this, please watch Wentz with the Eagles and you’ll learn.
This is arguably the deepest QB class and up there against the big ones in
NFL history with QB types for every offensive scheme there is.
This is not a good OL draft if you’re looking for a blue goose LT. Taking Barkley would be an awful decision that would cost this team years and years of building properly.
I don’t agree at all Sy. Barkley is a luxury back. He’s a great fit for a team that has a good OL and has a QB.
We need to rebuild.
If you question this, please watch Wentz with the Eagles and you’ll learn.
This is arguably the deepest QB class and up there against the big ones in
NFL history with QB types for every offensive scheme there is.
This is not a good OL draft if you’re looking for a blue goose LT. Taking Barkley would be an awful decision that would cost this team years and years of building properly.
Both Dallas and Philly have their guys. The NYG need to follow suit.
If Reese picks a QB and is wrong, and there's a greater than 50% chance he will be wrong, it will set this franchise back a long time.
Quote:
Saquon Barkley
I don’t agree at all Sy. Barkley is a luxury back. He’s a great fit for a team that has a good OL and has a QB.
We need to rebuild.
We can debate later....but I think he is a franchise-changing back. Yes the OL needs to be built, but I'm not sure there is a top 10 OL talent in this class.
Beckham is a game changer, how has that translated into wins and losses?
If Reese picks a QB and is wrong, and there's a greater than 50% chance he will be wrong, it will set this franchise back a long time.
That's not a decision changer. If you have the chance to draft a franchise QB then you do. The position is just that important.
Even if we grab a QB, I think manning should have a chance next year
Quote:
People buy into draft hype every year about players and classes and it's bullshit.
If Reese picks a QB and is wrong, and there's a greater than 50% chance he will be wrong, it will set this franchise back a long time.
That's not a decision changer. If you have the chance to draft a franchise QB then you do. The position is just that important.
Even if we grab a QB, I think manning should have a chance next year
I disagree. As a fan, I value championships. I think acquiring a bunch of premium picks now gives the Giants the best shot to address deficiencies and put themselves in a position to win another ring over the next few years. I don't see one pick on a QB getting this team any closer to winning a championship.
I disagree. As a fan, I value championships. I think acquiring a bunch of premium picks now gives the Giants the best shot to address deficiencies and put themselves in a position to win another ring over the next few years. I don't see one pick on a QB getting this team any closer to winning a championship.
The Giants aren’t the Cleveland Browns. You take the franchise QB, then start the three year rebuild process. But the rebuild has to start with a new GM/head coach.
QBs are just way more important than RBs in today's game.
We go 1-16 at best.
I say....another weapon. If JR is still here.
Qb - darnold or Rossen
Lt - Adams or McGlinchey
Rb - Barkley
Barkley being the least of the top 5
Agree 100%. Gives the Giants options. Get a new franchise QB or the franchise LT the team so desperately needs. Or a great RB
Not questioning your player choice per se but with the current group of lugnuts and potentionally a worse group next year( I don't know of potential nonNYFG OL FAs) wouldn't we be better off going OL rd 1&2 ...give EF opportunity at RG and try to rebuild OL asap while we still have a nice Corp of receivers?
The Reese mess will take at least 3 years anyway...unless there are FAs in 18/19 that will come here and speed up turnaround.
Right now though Barkley looks like he can carry an offense in the mold of the old time dominant backs like Sanders, like Dickerson, and Simpson. His collection of speed, size, vision, and change of direction don't come around ... ever. If a QB steps up n front him, I get it. For me it would have to be Darnold getting right and living up to he hype. But right now Saquon is the real deal and could have QB like impact.
2 – I said it last week and I’ll say once again this week; USC Sam Darnold is a very talent quarterback who is not ready for the NFL. Stop pushing him into a level he is not ready for.
4 – I keep waiting for Penn State RB Saquan Barkley to show me that he might not be THE best player in this coming draft. So far it hasn’t happened.
7 – The most improved QB so far this season is Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. His play from the pocket has been improving from week to week. Credit to the coaching and to Kelly who seems to be very coachable. The difference in Kelly’s improved play and coaching is leaps and bounds better than what USC is accomplishing with its high profile quarterback.
9 – Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is an excellent athlete playing the quarterback position. He reminds me a lot of RGIII.
10 – There is something lacking in UCLA Josh Rosen’s game and I know what it is. It’s something quarterbacks have to have to win the big games consistently and it has nothing to do with talent. It’s the same problem the Charges QB Philip Rivers has.
"Talking to Myself" - ( New Window )
His statement on Rosen is highly questionable. Major comeback to take down a really good SEC team almost all on his own speaks volumes to me about what he’s capable of if he had a better team around him. And you know what else, Philip Rivers is a damn good quarterback.
He’s proven to be more of an NFL QB than Darnold and Allen at this point
wonder if he will stick around for 1 more year as they play Bama in the 2018 opener. A big showcase for him or a way to avoid exposure against elite teams that Louisville has issues with.
Yeah, like DeShaun Watson.
Rosen seems like a nutjob and talks too much. Need someone with emotional intelligence.
Quote:
and then Allen in that order.
Rosen seems like a nutjob and talks too much. Need someone with emotional intelligence.
A nutjob? Because he has opinions?
Quote:
In comment 13637603 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
and then Allen in that order.
Rosen seems like a nutjob and talks too much. Need someone with emotional intelligence.
A nutjob? Because he has opinions?
Yes
I've watched most of these guys a few times now. Outside of Rosen I'm not sure I like any of them. I see lots of hype.
Quote:
Please.
wonder if he will stick around for 1 more year as they play Bama in the 2018 opener. A big showcase for him or a way to avoid exposure against elite teams that Louisville has issues with.
Why would him leaving be looked as him avoiding Alabama?
trade down for more picks and some top picks for 2019 draft
This.
I like Olsen, but I prefer a mobile QB to a pocket passer. I have to watch more of Josh Allen before I can formulate an opinion on him, but it's hard to see the physical tools when the offense isn't moving the ball.
Barkley is a wonderful player, but I'm completely soured on the idea of a drafting a RB when QBs are available. If there are no QBs, OL, or DL worthy of taking that high, only then would I go for Barkley.
The problem is not that Giants drafted Beckham, problem is they did not address line well. Through bust free agent signings and bust picks like Schwartz and Flowers and even Pugh to some degree.
In fact, given the state they are in, they should pick the best player available at any position other than receiver or tight end.
This idea that the Giants did not spend resources on the line is total bunk; they did, they just did so poorly. Next GM should consider signing free agents and using right picks on the line.
With this group, I believe a solid lt will work wonders and another guard and this line will be much better. Many ways to accomplish that.
1. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma St.
2. Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma
3. James Washington WR Oklahoma St.
4. Minkah Fitzpatrick CB Alabama (Jersey kid)
5. Saquon Barkley RB Penn St.
6. Arden Key DE LSU
7. Quinton Nelson G ND
8. Derwin James S Fla. St.
9. Sam Darnold QB USC
10. Ogbonnra Okornkwo OLB Oklahoma St.
Rosen didn't make the Top 20
Great Blue North
1. Darnold
2. Josh Rosen QB UCLA
3. Josh Allen QB Wyoming
4. James
5. Barkley
6. Christian Wilkins DT Clemson
7. Key
8. Tarvous McFadden CB Fla. St.
9. Brown
10. Dre'Mont Jones DT Ohio St.
Note - I think these are Colin's preseason picks while CBS has been updated.
He went to the same school as Cooper Kupp, so I have to imagine he's on scouts' radars. I wonder what round he'd go.
The problem is not that Giants drafted Beckham, problem is they did not address line well. Through bust free agent signings and bust picks like Schwartz and Flowers and even Pugh to some degree.
In fact, given the state they are in, they should pick the best player available at any position other than receiver or tight end.
This idea that the Giants did not spend resources on the line is total bunk; they did, they just did so poorly. Next GM should consider signing free agents and using right picks on the line.
With this group, I believe a solid lt will work wonders and another guard and this line will be much better. Many ways to accomplish that.
Reese's track record with 3rd through 7th round picks is horrible. 1-2 round picks have been pretty solid. A trade down makes a ton of sense because it gives Reese the ammo to add talent in rounds he's demonstrated a high success rate.
There's a realistic shot this team could be looking for 3-5 new OL starters in a year with dogshit at OL in FA. Addressing the OL with typical Reese shitty mid to late rounders is simply unacceptable and would make the fan base lose their minds.
A trade down with Buffalo makes a ton of sense. They've made the moves they've made to acquire picks so they can have the ammo to move up for a legit franchise QB. They haven't had one since Jim Kelly. They would give it all away for a shot at a legitimate QB, and I'd gladly take it. Eli has another run in him with talent around him -- I want rings, not QB fantasy stats for the next 10 years (if we're lucky).
9 premium picks over '18 and '19 would allow the FO to get back to basics and rebuild this time the right way -- in the trenches. That's plenty of picks to rebuild the OL, add a pass rusher, and add talent/speed at LB.
If they trade down and stockpile picks yes great. As long as they get the right haul. But you assume reese is making the picks why would you assume he would trade down he has never done it?
If they trade down and stockpile picks yes great. As long as they get the right haul. But you assume reese is making the picks why would you assume he would trade down he has never done it?
I think odds are Reese sticks around. Just the way the organization seems to operate. I may be wrong.
Reese has never traded down but that doesn't mean he won't. We don't know why he hasn't traded down. We've usually picked around the middle so maybe he thought the drop was substantial. Maybe his demands are too high for partners. Who knows. What I do know is teams give up a lot to move up for a QB. We see it all the time.
How's that worked out for us so far??
2. You may well still end up in the first round, so you can apply any positional ideas as in above posts well also.
3. Impose self discipline, you should have to earn the right to draft QBs and WRs early, that is, earn it by building a solid team on the lines, etc.
Made-up number for sake of discussion.
Your chance of gaining -ONE- non bust + non major injury player with three picks (trade down) as opposed to one pick, would be lowered to 11%. That's a 22% improvement.
That's your comp. Its not 1 to 1.
In addition, stock piling many picks in a known range, say 6 high second round to mid fourth round (trade ups and trade downs) would enable the staff to really focus their thinking, greatly raise the chance of finding contributing starters, and build more rational comparative internal arguments in one vs the other prospect.
There are other ways to mitigate risk, avoiding known reaches, avoiding wishful thinking in character and teachability, and knowing which positions to value stats more (such as wrs total # of receptions, dbacks INTs, etc) and which positions to value physical size and pure athletics + attitude more (D line).
its probably a much lower %# on both ends in real numbers. Its to advocate the trade downs broadly.