NFT: NYY ALCS Rotation: Tanaka-Sevy-CC-Gray

Gray cannot hit the broad side of a barn right now.

gm 1. that's a good set up

Ride Tanaka for what will assuredly be 2 starts. Gray is probably better suited for a home start right now

Funny because Francessa insisted Sonny Gray would be a huge part of this series, pitching game 1.

He is a far superior pitcher on extra rest.

In comment 13646222 Matt M. said:

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He is a far superior pitcher on extra rest.

People keep repeating this as truth- but it is ABSOLUTELY FALSE.

Tanaka made 8 starts on "normal rest" this year. He went 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA. He threw 49 innings, K'd 54, gave up 6 HR and 10 walks.

Meanwhile, on 5 days of rest (the 6 day start theory), he made 15 such starts, and Tanaka went 5-6, with a 5.21 ERA. He threw 86 innings, K'd 98, gave up a whopping 21 HR and walked 21 guys.

Tanaka even made 7 starts on more than 6 days of rest- and was 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA, throwing 43 innings, K'd 42 and gave up 8 HR.

Yet the NY Sportwriters lazily repeat this myth over and over because someone told them and they foolishly believed it without ever fact-checking it. In turn, many- especially here- mindlessly repeat that nonsense.

In short, Tanaka has been SIGNIFICANTLY better in a normal 5 day rotation.


Facts are your friend - ( New Window )

In comment 13646243 rich in DC said:

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In comment 13646222 Matt M. said: Quote: He is a far superior pitcher on extra rest. People keep repeating this as truth- but it is ABSOLUTELY FALSE. Tanaka made 8 starts on "normal rest" this year. He went 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA. He threw 49 innings, K'd 54, gave up 6 HR and 10 walks. Meanwhile, on 5 days of rest (the 6 day start theory), he made 15 such starts, and Tanaka went 5-6, with a 5.21 ERA. He threw 86 innings, K'd 98, gave up a whopping 21 HR and walked 21 guys. Tanaka even made 7 starts on more than 6 days of rest- and was 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA, throwing 43 innings, K'd 42 and gave up 8 HR. Yet the NY Sportwriters lazily repeat this myth over and over because someone told them and they foolishly believed it without ever fact-checking it. In turn, many- especially here- mindlessly repeat that nonsense. In short, Tanaka has been SIGNIFICANTLY better in a normal 5 day rotation. Facts are your friend - ( New Window )

Actually, look at the numbers over his career, not just this year. They are favorable for 5 days rest and 6+. But, going with a 4 man rotation puts him on 5 days rest for Game 5, which should be beneficial.

This will be some tough team to beat, and it's smart to have our two top starters going 1,2.

That's the order I was hoping for. Just gotta take one in Houston.

We can all rehash Tanaka’s better stats at home and historically better numbers when pitching on extra rest...but he also threw one of the great starts of his career last time out, while Gray mostly stunk up the joint

Giving Tanaka game 1 and 5 and limiting Gray to one max start in the series seems like a good baseball sense decision, regardless of what the math may be telling us

Starting pitching is lined up as well as could be expected off a Wild Card game and five-game ALDS. Bullpen's in decent enough shape. I think the change of scenery will be good for Judge and Sanchez, too. Let's roll!

Both at thr plate and on the bases. It's best to push
back Sonny's start so he pitches at the Stadium instead of the Roman Coliseum. Yanks are a long shot . The Beard is toxic to them . But here they are. League Championship round .

but I'm not dead set against throwing him tonight as Gray would have been an iffy option. Like going with Sevi tomorrow. With Tanaka its all about him. If the splitter is nasty like his last 2 starts he should due great, if it hangs like a grapefruit it will be clocked by this lineup in that bandbox.

Tanaka's career home/road split is minor. Might have just been a fluke that most of his bad starts were on the road.

And yet, you look at his September starts and it gets scary. He made five of them. Three of them were at home, and they were gems.

9/2: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3K/2BB against Boston
9/14: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 8K/2BB against Baltimore
9/29: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 15K/0BB against Toronto

Mixed in were two road starts

9/8 @ Texas: 4 IP, 8 H, 7 R
9/22 @ Toronto: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 3 HRs allowed

then he has to pitch one of 6/7 on the road where he's not as good and you really need him to not suck.

If you go game 1 on the road, maybe he bucks the trend but either way you get him in a pivotal game 5 at home.

and Gray has looked like hot garbage for some time now.

I'd rather take my chances with Tanaka.

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...Thank you, Yankees, Thank you...

as opposed to game 6 or 7. I do think this "Gray has been awful for some time now" narrative is a crock of shit. He fell apart with some bad luck in the 5th vs. Tampa, and had a bad start vs. Cleveland game 1. Other than that he's been solid. However if delaying his start till game 4 means delaying the march of the kill Sony pitchfork and torch crowd here on BBI I guess thats a plus...

Speculates that his reluctance to throw strikes in his last couple of starts has been a reaction to a spate of homers allowed in September. Only gave up two in his first five starts after the trade, then nine in his last six regular season starts. I suppose that's as good a guess as any.

Just go out and play. Tanaka will get yanked once things look scary.

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No word on the Yankees yet as far as I can see. I hope to see either Holliday or Headley left off, but I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't.

In comment 13646769 Greg from LI said:

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No word on the Yankees yet as far as I can see. I hope to see either Holliday or Headley left off, but I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't.

I bet Holliday starts tonight vs. Keuchel.

Disappointing

From RAB:

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Josh Lyman • 5 minutes ago Complaining about the American League Championship Series roster is like telling Margot Robbie you don't like her lingerie. Just be glad you get to see it.

In comment 13646829 Greg from LI said:

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From RAB: Quote: Josh Lyman • 5 minutes ago Complaining about the American League Championship Series roster is like telling Margot Robbie you don't like her lingerie. Just be glad you get to see it.

Bwahaaaa. Now that's funny.

However, when one of the players on the ALCS roster is Chase Headley, wouldn't the closer analogy be that you're telling Margot Robbie that you love and appreciate her lingerie, but the poop stain is a bit of a negative to the festivities? You can work around it, but still...

In comment 13646809 Greg from LI said:

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Disappointing

What change(s) would you make?

Both guys are "break glass in case of emergency" choices only, and Montgomery hasn't pitched in almost 2 weeks. Under what circumstances are you using him? A hypothetical 14th inning when you've exhausted all your other options? Twelves pitchers on the roster, and probably three of them will pitch only in extreme extra innings or a blowout - Betances, Garcia, and Montgomery.

I would have liked to have seen one of them out and one of C Frazier or Austin in. Just would have been nice to have another bench bat option since none of Ellsbury, Headley, or Holliday have been hitting at all in a while. It's not a huge deal, and while I don't really want Headley on the roster, I understand that he's on it if for no other reason than that they need more than one backup IF. Just seems less than ideal, that's all.

of someone like Clint Frazier added to the roster-- he's young, he's aggressive, he's fast, and he could be a spark especially when compared with the stoic and aging Headley and the struggling Holliday and Ellsbury.

But Frazier just isn't ready yet.

Offense-wise, I'm not sure what other options the Yanks had.

Will not change. They simply don't need 2 extra outfielders, if there is an injury then they could add Frazier, I wish Joe would bench Headley and try Holliday against left handed pitchers as DH.

but one thing is I can see multiple games in this series being slug fests with a guys like Monty/Garcia coming into play as early as the 2nd or 3rd inning. What if it happens in back to back games or with only 1 day's rest? Usually I'd agree that this is a long shot, but with the 2 offenses I think it's more than just a long shot possibility.

In comment 13646858 Greg from LI said:

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Both guys are "break glass in case of emergency" choices only, and Montgomery hasn't pitched in almost 2 weeks. Under what circumstances are you using him? A hypothetical 14th inning when you've exhausted all your other options? Twelves pitchers on the roster, and probably three of them will pitch only in extreme extra innings or a blowout - Betances, Garcia, and Montgomery. I would have liked to have seen one of them out and one of C Frazier or Austin in. Just would have been nice to have another bench bat option since none of Ellsbury, Headley, or Holliday have been hitting at all in a while. It's not a huge deal, and while I don't really want Headley on the roster, I understand that he's on it if for no other reason than that they need more than one backup IF. Just seems less than ideal, that's all.

That's fair enough. Except, I wouldn't lump Betances in with Garcia and Montgomery. While he might not be the sure thing he was last year, I'm not convinced the coaching staff is at the point of only pitching him in emergency. That said, Green and Kahnle have rightly passed him by. His lack of playing time has as much to do with those guys being lights out right now as it does with his struggles.

Then again, I don't think you were advocating leaving him off. I can see the value in swapping one of the benched starters for a guy like Frazier. If nothing else, he would give them a late inning pinch runner.

Sevy in Game Two, three straight in New York, Sevy in Game Six. A little more pressure on Houston tonight than the Yanks.

of a serious rivalry between the Yankees and Astros. Both have built great young cores and should be fighting each other for the AL pennant for years to come if all goes well.

But their rotation isn't that young.

the future holds no promises. Progress isn't always linear with young players. Sometimes they take a step back and injuries happen. I'm enjoying this, the future will take care of itself.

In comment 13647065 Stu11 said:

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the future holds no promises. Progress isn't always linear with young players. Sometimes they take a step back and injuries happen. I'm enjoying this, the future will take care of itself.

I agree. I expect them to be good next season, but I'm not gonna go crazy with expectations. More young players will be introduced, and they may not hit the ground running like some of our other young studs. Older guys like Headley, Gardy and CC may not perform as well either, if they're stil around at all. I still expect 2019 to be the year they reach "World Series or bust" status. Until then the pressure's off and I'm enjoying things.

Gardy is reaching all time Yankee status. That AB in the 9th the other night will go down in Yankee post season lore. Would love to see him hit a big HR to win a game and really cement it. He's not quite the hitter Paul O'Neil was but he's that same type of warrior.

they are in the WS.

Estevan Florial was 4 for 5 yesterday in the lead off spot for Scottsdale in AFL.

Just having an old time Yankees discussion in Artie voice.. Mike cut him off after a few minutes.. I could listen to that all day.

In comment 13646806 Stu11 said:

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I bet Holliday starts tonight vs. Keuchel.

Right you are.

*

Maybe resting for a few weeks did him some good.

In comment 13647183 Greg from LI said:

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Maybe resting for a few weeks did him some good.

He was excellent first few months of the season. Not crazy to think the extended rest has done him some good and that he could give us a jolt.