Hey guys...I told Eric I would put this together this past weekend...just got caught up in some other work. Not going in to great detail but would love to get some discussion going over the next few days. So...just a few bulls points based on what I've seen this year. I still have a lengthy list of guys I have not seen, or have only seen 1x this year so everything is still very fluid.
1) The hyped QB class has been very underwhelming.
I had a feeling this would happen because even though I didn't scout these guys a year ago, I saw them plenty and wasn't woefully impressed. There are significant negatives to all of the top guys. The one that I think can be a legit star, however, is Josh Rosen/UCLA. He has the combination of repeatable throwing mechanics, arm power, accuracy, and feel in the pocket. He has had less help around him than all the other guys by far...none of the draft eligible QBs have had more drops by their targets than Rosen this year. He is now battling a hand injury, something to monitor. The most disappointing guy so far has been Sam Darnold. We can talk tools and ability in the clutch, but he is making downright awful decisions multiple times each week and hasn't protected the ball for a game yet. He needs to go back for his redshirt junior season.
Top 5 as of now:
1 - Josh Rosen - UCLA
2 - Baker Mayfield - OKLAHOMA
3 - Ryan Finley - NC STATE
4 - Josh Allen - WYOMING
5 - Mason Rudolph - OKLAHOMA STATE
2) The strongest position in the draft may be RB
After the 2017 Draft, I can recall Dave Te'Thomas saying there wouldn't be a single RB in the 1st round discussion. I remember thinking..."has Dave ever heard of Saquon Barkley?!?"...but now that we are in to the meat of the season, I think there are multiple guys in round 1 discussions. Barkley is, has been, and will continue to be by #1 overall player in the class. But some other 1st round caliber names that have emerged are Josh Adams/NOTRE DAME, Darrius Guice/LSU, Bryce Love/STANFORD, Damien Harris/ALABAMA, and Ronald Jones/USC. These are all guys that bring something special to the table and in a class that lacks star power at the top, RB may be the spot teams look to in terms of adding playmakers.
3). That brings me to another underwhelming group, the OTs.
The top OTs heading that I had heading in to the year have been, yet again, disappointing. It will be a slightly better overall group than what was out there in 2017, but not by much. The top guy is Orlando Brown/OKLAHOMA. At 6'8/330 with long arms and really strong hands, he can be a top level guy if he cleans up his footwork. He is the one guy that I think can be a too 5 overall type pick. Mike McGlinchey/NOTRE DAME has been exposed multiple times by speed and quickness and I now question if he can be a LT in the NFL.
4). It is possible the two highest OL grades will be OGs
Quentin Nelson/NOTRE DAME has been the most dominant AND most consistent OL in the nation. I have very little negatives to say about him. At his size (6'5/330) he shows tremendous ability to adjust to quickness and leverage. He has overwhelming strength and power from head to toe, and he is really smart. The second is a name many don't know about...Will Hernandez/UTEP. He doesn't get beat one on one and has the tools to double as a dominating bulldozer and light footed lead blocker in space. He has top tier potential, top tier.
5) There isn't going to be a ton of DE help
The theme of this draft class has been the main top-of-the-draft positions have not been overly strong in comparison to past years (QB-WR-LT-CB-DE). The DE group had a couple names with big circles around them coming in to the year, but they haven't stood out in the games I have scouted. Arden Key/LSU looks the part, but there are some off field concerns with him and frankly has not shown dominant traits. Harold Landry/BOSTON COLLEGE has failed to live up to the hype and I have poor grades on his effort and run defense multiple times so far this year. The one bright spot is Bradley Chubb/NC STATE who has top 10 potential and could fit in to a 4-3 DE role day one.
MORE SPECIFIC NYG DRAFT TALK
-Giants will be picking in the top 10, most likely in the top 7. Their "program" has hit an all time low since Manning has been here, Manning himself is near the end...have to think QB is on their short list right? It will very much depend on whether or not they fire Reese/McAdoo. I can't see them spending their top pick on a QB after using their 3rd rounder who hasn't seen the field yet in 2017. They will need a 2018 impact player, no questions asked. If those guys do get fired, QB will certainly be in the discussion. Who that is...partially depends on who is running the new regime. If you had to make me choose one right now, it's Rosen.
-So if not a QB, then what? I've been saying this since September and I'll keep saying it...if NYG has a shot at Barkley, take him. The OL can be figured out...he is a guy this team can rely on for a long time. I understand the importance of the OL as much as anyone out there...but he truly is a once in a lifetime caliber RB in my opinion.
-If no QB, and Barkley isn't there (I could see CLE going hard for him)...this is where it just gets muddy. I don't think there is going to be a LT worth taking that high (although OU's Brown is on my radar). The Giants CB trio went from a major perceived strength to three long term question marks. Somehow...man that is nuts. But one of my favorite defenders in the country over the past three years is Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. He plays literally everywhere...and easily projects to near top grade at FS, Nickel CB, and CB. He is a guy you bring in here then figure it out. Better version of what DAL has in Byron Jones.
-Where is the OL help going to come? Before NYG spends any money in free agency, the approach has to be OL first. Correct, you can't simply overpay for mediocre talent. But watching Russell Okung and Andrew Whitworth play at a very high level right now is tough to see...especially knowing NYG could have likely had either. Guys like that will be available and they must get one. If you can add a piece there and look to add a 2nd or 3rd rounder in the draft in addition to re-signing Pugh, this group could all of the sudden be a strength. Crazy thought right? If they want a day 2 OG, Tyrone Crowder/CLEMSON is a guy that fits the bill. I also like Braden Smith/AUBURN and Jamaica Jones/OHIO STATE that could project both inside and out.
-The LB situation continues to hamper them a bit, although not as drastic as its been in the past. The one guy I am being sold on hard right now is Rashaan Evans/ALABAMA. That program has had so. much talent in the past few years, so he had to wait his turn but in the 3 games I have scouted, he may be the best since CJ Mosley and maybe even better than that.
-Everyone's common line on NYG drafts is to "trade down get extra picks....etc. Remember...that is what EVERYONE wants to do. It's not easy...and a lot of that comes by partial luck and specific situations.
-I'll be able to get to any questions asked this afternoon and tomorrow. Thanks.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
Yeah, how has that worked out in recent years?
I like the LT from the Fighting Irish myself.
I am also more of a Josh Allen fan as far as the QB's go.
I have stated that before, Darnold reminds me of another
former USC product, Matt Barkley. Darnold looks like
a turnover machine this season. He might want to stay
another year at USC.
More than any other player in this draft, I think he's the closest to being an absolute lock to reach his peak potential, which is an All-Pro guard. In a draft where a lot of guys will have question marks, that's a major positive for Nelson.
I disagree with Sy when it comes to Darnold. All three of the big name QBs have struggled with decision making, although Darnold has certainly turned the ball over the most. I think he definitely needs another year in college, but I would take him if he was available. I think he has all of the underlying tools a guy needs to be a great QB in the NFL. Mayfield is a very difficult player for me to judge because his style of play and that offense makes it tough to envision him in an NFL offense.
I agree with Sy on McGlinchey. Talented/tough kid, but I don't think he's a LT. I'm not as big a fan of Orlando Brown as a high first rounder or a LT. When I look at him, I see Ereck Flowers... a guy who excels at that level just with brute size/strength.
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the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
Sy, I like Chubb, not sure I would draft him that high though. He might be a top 10 pick, we'll see.
I am also more of a Josh Allen fan as far as the QB's go.
I have stated that before, Darnold reminds me of another
former USC product, Matt Barkley. Darnold looks like
a turnover machine this season. He might want to stay
another year at USC.
Barkley didn't have the physical ability to be an NFL starter. That's not Darnold's issue. Being a "turnover machine" isn't even the issue either. Keep in mind, DeShaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Matt Ryan could all be considered "turnover machines" in their final year of college ball.
If I was advising Darnold, I'd ask him what all of the successful NFL QBs have in common? It's experience, on the field and off. They all started for 3 years. Nearly all of them were in college for 4 or 5 years. He's going to be a high pick no matter what, but I think he should set himself up for future success by staying in school.
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In comment 13673091 Reb8thVA said:
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the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
.
Sy, I like Chubb, not sure I would draft him that high though. He might be a top 10 pick, we'll see.
I would have said the same thing a month ago...but the dude can ball. He is very good and getting better...Late bloomer. There isn't a thing he can't do...and there isn't an edge rusher better than him.
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In comment 13673091 Reb8thVA said:
Quote:
the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
.
Sy, I like Chubb, not sure I would draft him that high though. He might be a top 10 pick, we'll see.
I may have a higher grade on Michel than Chubb.
Get the best players you can in the draft and FA, then determine what kind of team you're going to be. But we've been doing the opposite. We determine what kind of team we want to be, and then get the players that we think fit that style. Who knows how much talent you miss out on with that approach?
Take this guard from Notre Dame. It sounds like he is one of the best players in the draft, but because he's a guard and not a tackle we are unlikely to pick him. I think that's fucking nuts. If Larry Allen were in this draft, wouldn't you want to take him #1 overall? I know I would.
I agree. I also feel like scouts have lost the ability to get a feel for OL coming out. All we heard last year was that the OL class sucked, yet Cam Robinson and Ryan Ramcyk are anchoring the lines for two potential playoff teams.
Arden Tate. 6’5” FSU
Equanimous ST Brown. 6”5. Notre Dame
Sy. What are ur thoughts on these guys
I like both and would be happy with either.
Top Draft Prospects - ( New Window )
Arden Tate. 6’5” FSU
Equanimous ST Brown. 6”5. Notre Dame
Sy. What are ur thoughts on these guys
St. Brown certainly has 1st round talent, but he's only a redshirt sophomore. If his younger brother, one of the top high school prospects in the country, chooses Notre Dame, I seriously doubt St. Brown leaves school after this season.
I stand alone in not being all in on Barkley. Incredible athlete, great speed, apparently great attitude and teammate, but yet I still am not sure he has great instincts. Home run hitters in college do not always translate to the pros, and his hesitance to take the 3 yard gain worries me. That is the exact reason the Dolphins just bailed on Ajayi....if the long runs don't come, the value dramatically diminishes. Once again, I'm sure I'm wrong here, but considering our O-line, there is risk involved with Barkley.
All in all, a pretty terrible looking year to be at the top of the draft, at least as it appears now.
Of that QB list, Mayfield has been most consistent throughout his career, and is mine as well at this point. I think Darnold stays in school.
RB Sy got me onto Barkley...my eyes see what he saw.
On OL, I'm surprise I didnt see McGlinchey on there instead of a tandeming at OG.
IMHO, Cleveland or SF go McGlinchey to replace their veteran LTs. Cleveland may take a QB at their other first round spot like last year and goes Mc. SF does not need QB and may go Barkley to replace Hyde. Indy may challenge our #3, doesnt need QB, and likely takes Nelson. If we keep 3 spot, under the above scenario I take Nelson over the QBs , but NYFG will go QB. If it all plays Out as I see it, and they tank a little, NYJ get choice of remaining QBs, but also may want our spot if they are hot for 1 of those QBs.
I stand alone in not being all in on Barkley. Incredible athlete, great speed, apparently great attitude and teammate, but yet I still am not sure he has great instincts. Home run hitters in college do not always translate to the pros, and his hesitance to take the 3 yard gain worries me. That is the exact reason the Dolphins just bailed on Ajayi....if the long runs don't come, the value dramatically diminishes. Once again, I'm sure I'm wrong here, but considering our O-line, there is risk involved with Barkley.
All in all, a pretty terrible looking year to be at the top of the draft, at least as it appears now.
You don’t stand alone on Barkley. I think taking him top 5 would be a huge mistake.
The recent RB infatuation looks cyclical. In the 90s and early 00s teams frequently burned top picks on RBs. Then the league figured out you could win by focusing on the trenches and taking RBs later, so RBs dropped. Now it’s come back the other way with the recent success of guys like Zeke and Fournette.
Imv football is won in the trenches and that’s exactly what the Giants should be focusing on this off-season.
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...the biggest concern with all the QB's is that they have all taken a step back despite the opportunity to impress and become the #1 pick. Besides all the on the field issues, of which there are plenty, this screams to me of young men not quite ready for the big show. Having said that, there is little doubt Rosen has been the best of the bunch, but he is far from guaranteed to be a star. I recall seeing him in High School at some camp Trent Dilfer ran, and he exasperated the coaches there with his smarter than thou attitude (although being smarter than Dilfer is no hard task).
I stand alone in not being all in on Barkley. Incredible athlete, great speed, apparently great attitude and teammate, but yet I still am not sure he has great instincts. Home run hitters in college do not always translate to the pros, and his hesitance to take the 3 yard gain worries me. That is the exact reason the Dolphins just bailed on Ajayi....if the long runs don't come, the value dramatically diminishes. Once again, I'm sure I'm wrong here, but considering our O-line, there is risk involved with Barkley.
All in all, a pretty terrible looking year to be at the top of the draft, at least as it appears now.
You don’t stand alone on Barkley. I think taking him top 5 would be a huge mistake.
The recent RB infatuation looks cyclical. In the 90s and early 00s teams frequently burned top picks on RBs. Then the league figured out you could win by focusing on the trenches and taking RBs later, so RBs dropped. Now it’s come back the other way with the recent success of guys like Zeke and Fournette.
Imv football is won in the trenches and that’s exactly what the Giants should be focusing on this off-season.
I think part of the reason why RB's are back in vogue is as a response to the prevalence of smaller, faster linebackers and defensive ends.
That's why I would advocate for simply harvesting the best talent possible and shaping the team to that. Ignore positions entirely and just draft the best players whenever it's your turn to pick. The team that sticks to that philosophy will, over the long haul, create the strongest pipeline of talent. And in a league where rosters are quickly overturned through injuries and the salary cap it seems to me the best way to go. This can't be underscored enough: AT ALL TIMES EVERY POSITION IS A POSITION OF NEED.
Obviously, if there are issues with how we scout and develop talent that is a deeper, more serious problem that needs to be addressed immediately and with no expense spared (after all GMs, coaches, and scouts are not constrained by the salary cap). But assuming that infrastructure is in place, the model I described above is the surest way to ensure talented rosters. It will then be incumbent on the coaches to build their strategies to that talent.
If Reese and McAdoo are still here I can see Barkley taken if they decide Manning and Webb are enough at QB.
If a new GM and coach are brought in I can see Rosen being the pick.
The game at San Fran is huge for the draft position. If we end up losing to SF and have the same record we will pick ahead of them. At this point only Cleveland is worse than us and they need a QB but could also take a RB.
It is very early but I can see us with anywhere from the 3rd to the 1st pick in the draft.
I have also watched some of him. Surprised he has not been talked about very much
It's a perfect situation for a young QB. He can sit and learn behind Eli for a year or two. By the time he's ready to start you have Odell, Shepard, Engram, Gallman, Pugh, Richburg hitting the prime of their careers.
OL has to be the first priority in free agency. The OL class is looking very weak though. They have to find someone though.
Then the 2nd priority is going after a WR2 in free agency and there should be plenty. Alshon, Pryor, Davante Adams, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown & Sammy Watkins are all free agents.
IMO we will be picking in the top 5. I can't see us winning more then 3 games. I thought it was a lock we'd beat SF, but with them trading for Jimmy G I think our chances got a lot worse. Especially since their isn't a lot of tape on Jimmy G. A loss to the 49ers could help us a lot.
..ya never know. We may strike gold with a Baker Mayfield.
But right now, we are years behind the Eagles and Cowboys until we find a franchise QB replacement for Eli Manning.
It's a perfect situation for a young QB. He can sit and learn behind Eli for a year or two. By the time he's ready to start you have Odell, Shepard, Engram, Gallman, Pugh, Richburg hitting the prime of their careers.
OL has to be the first priority in free agency. The OL class is looking very weak though. They have to find someone though.
Then the 2nd priority is going after a WR2 in free agency and there should be plenty. Alshon, Pryor, Davante Adams, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown & Sammy Watkins are all free agents.
IMO we will be picking in the top 5. I can't see us winning more then 3 games. I thought it was a lock we'd beat SF, but with them trading for Jimmy G I think our chances got a lot worse. Especially since their isn't a lot of tape on Jimmy G. A loss to the 49ers could help us a lot.
So you want to re-sign Pugh and Richburg along with extending OBJ and bringing in another top Vet FA WR? The salary cap may say otherwise. Lets also understand that Eli, Rosen and Webb will be sucking up much of the cap.
I think re-signing Pugh, Fluker and another guard is vital for our offense next year. John Jerry should be a back up at best.
For example, some years a group of good guards may go high-mid second round.
Or linebackers may start to fly off the boards in Rd...?.
A slightly different way to look at it is, for example for years, it seemed like good value dbacks and safeties would go in the 4th.
This year, running back:
?- how do you guys paying attention rate the drop from #1 to next best and are the next few close to each other in your rank or are they also highly differentiated?
In this way you can map the draft as a whole possibly.
This team is littered with high pick skill guys and it isn’t returning any wins. Time to get back to basics and build the trenches.
[quote]
..ya never know. We may strike gold with a Baker Mayfield.
But right now, we are years behind the Eagles and Cowboys until we find a franchise QB replacement for Eli Manning. [/quote
Agreed, maybe not "forc" but take a guy if there's conviction.
I don't follow CF very passionately so I've wondered... why doesn't his name come up as an elite RB prospect? It doesn't seem as though he's merely a fast, small guy who won't outrun NFL defenders. He's got great moves and seemingly very good balance as well.
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I don't follow CF very passionately so I've wondered... why doesn't his name come up as an elite RB prospect? It doesn't seem as though he's merely a fast, small guy who won't outrun NFL defenders. He's got great moves and seemingly very good balance as well.
Hes been great. However, I think it comes down to: (1)Sample Size (2) Injury Concerns (3) Size (4)Pac-12 defense generally struggle to stop the run
They have the worst OL and the worst LBs in the league.
QB - 1
OL - 2
LB - 3
OL - 4
LB - 5
OL - 6
Richburg and Pugh are often injured, and I don't want either back unless it's on a "prove it" type deal. Shockingly, Flowers has been much better since the debacle against Detroit and Philly. I think he's one of the five we need going forward. Now, find me four more. The rest of the year should be used to find out what we have in the offensive linemen like Wheeler, Biz, Halapio, Jones, etc.
Guys like John Jerry should not be seeing the field once we're 2-8.
You mean the way the Cowboys were years behind everyone when Romo went down? Or how the Eagles were ahead of everyone with Nick Foles or Kevin Kolb?
The way the NFL is now, any team can turn things around in a year. There has been consistently over a 50% turnover in playoff teams from year to year since 2000.
Chubb beat him once last week, but was shut down the rest of the game pretty much.