Hey guys...I told Eric I would put this together this past weekend...just got caught up in some other work. Not going in to great detail but would love to get some discussion going over the next few days. So...just a few bulls points based on what I've seen this year. I still have a lengthy list of guys I have not seen, or have only seen 1x this year so everything is still very fluid.
1) The hyped QB class has been very underwhelming.
I had a feeling this would happen because even though I didn't scout these guys a year ago, I saw them plenty and wasn't woefully impressed. There are significant negatives to all of the top guys. The one that I think can be a legit star, however, is Josh Rosen/UCLA. He has the combination of repeatable throwing mechanics, arm power, accuracy, and feel in the pocket. He has had less help around him than all the other guys by far...none of the draft eligible QBs have had more drops by their targets than Rosen this year. He is now battling a hand injury, something to monitor. The most disappointing guy so far has been Sam Darnold. We can talk tools and ability in the clutch, but he is making downright awful decisions multiple times each week and hasn't protected the ball for a game yet. He needs to go back for his redshirt junior season.
Top 5 as of now:
1 - Josh Rosen - UCLA
2 - Baker Mayfield - OKLAHOMA
3 - Ryan Finley - NC STATE
4 - Josh Allen - WYOMING
5 - Mason Rudolph - OKLAHOMA STATE
2) The strongest position in the draft may be RB
After the 2017 Draft, I can recall Dave Te'Thomas saying there wouldn't be a single RB in the 1st round discussion. I remember thinking..."has Dave ever heard of Saquon Barkley?!?"...but now that we are in to the meat of the season, I think there are multiple guys in round 1 discussions. Barkley is, has been, and will continue to be by #1 overall player in the class. But some other 1st round caliber names that have emerged are Josh Adams/NOTRE DAME, Darrius Guice/LSU, Bryce Love/STANFORD, Damien Harris/ALABAMA, and Ronald Jones/USC. These are all guys that bring something special to the table and in a class that lacks star power at the top, RB may be the spot teams look to in terms of adding playmakers.
3). That brings me to another underwhelming group, the OTs.
The top OTs heading that I had heading in to the year have been, yet again, disappointing. It will be a slightly better overall group than what was out there in 2017, but not by much. The top guy is Orlando Brown/OKLAHOMA. At 6'8/330 with long arms and really strong hands, he can be a top level guy if he cleans up his footwork. He is the one guy that I think can be a too 5 overall type pick. Mike McGlinchey/NOTRE DAME has been exposed multiple times by speed and quickness and I now question if he can be a LT in the NFL.
4). It is possible the two highest OL grades will be OGs
Quentin Nelson/NOTRE DAME has been the most dominant AND most consistent OL in the nation. I have very little negatives to say about him. At his size (6'5/330) he shows tremendous ability to adjust to quickness and leverage. He has overwhelming strength and power from head to toe, and he is really smart. The second is a name many don't know about...Will Hernandez/UTEP. He doesn't get beat one on one and has the tools to double as a dominating bulldozer and light footed lead blocker in space. He has top tier potential, top tier.
5) There isn't going to be a ton of DE help
The theme of this draft class has been the main top-of-the-draft positions have not been overly strong in comparison to past years (QB-WR-LT-CB-DE). The DE group had a couple names with big circles around them coming in to the year, but they haven't stood out in the games I have scouted. Arden Key/LSU looks the part, but there are some off field concerns with him and frankly has not shown dominant traits. Harold Landry/BOSTON COLLEGE has failed to live up to the hype and I have poor grades on his effort and run defense multiple times so far this year. The one bright spot is Bradley Chubb/NC STATE who has top 10 potential and could fit in to a 4-3 DE role day one.
MORE SPECIFIC NYG DRAFT TALK
-Giants will be picking in the top 10, most likely in the top 7. Their "program" has hit an all time low since Manning has been here, Manning himself is near the end...have to think QB is on their short list right? It will very much depend on whether or not they fire Reese/McAdoo. I can't see them spending their top pick on a QB after using their 3rd rounder who hasn't seen the field yet in 2017. They will need a 2018 impact player, no questions asked. If those guys do get fired, QB will certainly be in the discussion. Who that is...partially depends on who is running the new regime. If you had to make me choose one right now, it's Rosen.
-So if not a QB, then what? I've been saying this since September and I'll keep saying it...if NYG has a shot at Barkley, take him. The OL can be figured out...he is a guy this team can rely on for a long time. I understand the importance of the OL as much as anyone out there...but he truly is a once in a lifetime caliber RB in my opinion.
-If no QB, and Barkley isn't there (I could see CLE going hard for him)...this is where it just gets muddy. I don't think there is going to be a LT worth taking that high (although OU's Brown is on my radar). The Giants CB trio went from a major perceived strength to three long term question marks. Somehow...man that is nuts. But one of my favorite defenders in the country over the past three years is Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. He plays literally everywhere...and easily projects to near top grade at FS, Nickel CB, and CB. He is a guy you bring in here then figure it out. Better version of what DAL has in Byron Jones.
-Where is the OL help going to come? Before NYG spends any money in free agency, the approach has to be OL first. Correct, you can't simply overpay for mediocre talent. But watching Russell Okung and Andrew Whitworth play at a very high level right now is tough to see...especially knowing NYG could have likely had either. Guys like that will be available and they must get one. If you can add a piece there and look to add a 2nd or 3rd rounder in the draft in addition to re-signing Pugh, this group could all of the sudden be a strength. Crazy thought right? If they want a day 2 OG, Tyrone Crowder/CLEMSON is a guy that fits the bill. I also like Braden Smith/AUBURN and Jamaica Jones/OHIO STATE that could project both inside and out.
-The LB situation continues to hamper them a bit, although not as drastic as its been in the past. The one guy I am being sold on hard right now is Rashaan Evans/ALABAMA. That program has had so. much talent in the past few years, so he had to wait his turn but in the 3 games I have scouted, he may be the best since CJ Mosley and maybe even better than that.
-Everyone's common line on NYG drafts is to "trade down get extra picks....etc. Remember...that is what EVERYONE wants to do. It's not easy...and a lot of that comes by partial luck and specific situations.
-I'll be able to get to any questions asked this afternoon and tomorrow. Thanks.
This year Draft analysis for me is coming MUCH earlier.. for obvious reasons..
Thanks.. your both a resource and a treasure..
No wonder you disagree with Sy a lot.
Only halfway through the season so it's impossible to know where the Giants will land yet, but do you feel strongly about who you believe the top 5 players will be off the board, regardless of the draft order of teams?
Sy - in your scout's eye - which is the bigger problem with this team THIS year - is it coaching or is lack of talent? Are we a new coach and a couple of good draft picks away from being a legit contender or do you view the talent on this roster as a blow it up and start over situation? Just curious on you take...
He was hurt week 1...hasn't returned yet. He was an All American last year...my initial read on him was on the overrated side, looked somewhat like a guard. But I didn't see enough yet and I would think he is going to return to school next year.
Only halfway through the season so it's impossible to know where the Giants will land yet, but do you feel strongly about who you believe the top 5 players will be off the board, regardless of the draft order of teams?
I don't. The top 5 is unclear but here is my best shot:
1 - Barkley - RB/Penn State
2 - Rosen - QB/UCLA
3 - James - S/Florida State
4 - Wilkins - DT/Clemson
5 - Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Also whats your read on Josh Adams. He seems like a big guy that doesnt, or doesnt have to use his body. Is that a tribute to him or his OL?
Any WLBs on the radar in the 3-4th round range?
Thoughts on WR Anthony Miller at Memphis?
Sy - in your scout's eye - which is the bigger problem with this team THIS year - is it coaching or is lack of talent? Are we a new coach and a couple of good draft picks away from being a legit contender or do you view the talent on this roster as a blow it up and start over situation? Just curious on you take...
Gun to my head...I think it has more to do with coaching/leadership than it does personnel. Although the front office really screwed up their approach to the OL and the impact there is enormous.
This team can contend in 2018 with Manning at the helm and a coach. 100%.
Nelson can be a top 10-15 pick...not sure much higher than that.
Also whats your read on Josh Adams. He seems like a big guy that doesnt, or doesnt have to use his body. Is that a tribute to him or his OL?
I'm not a huge Adams for the NFL guy....not yet. Don't like his build and he's had as much space to run in to as anyone. He is a solid athlete though, will break tackles, can runaway from guys. Similar to what SEA has in Prosise.
Lorenzo Carter from Georgia is an interesting edge guy that can play a 4-3 OLB role. I think Kennard has the spot locked down though. I think NYG needs more help on the weak side. Rashaan Evans is THE guy there.
Any WLBs on the radar in the 3-4th round range?
Thoughts on WR Anthony Miller at Memphis?
I wrote up Miller a few weeks ago...love him. Gamer, has some Antonio Brown in him. Tough as nails.
Mid round LBs...Dorian O'Daniel/CLEMSON, Anthony Winbush/BALL STATE, Matthew Thomas/FLORIDA STATE, Azeem Victor/WASHINGTON
Would be a major steal. I think he is a top 20 overall guy. Potential of top 10
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If I can ask a couple questions
Any WLBs on the radar in the 3-4th round range?
Thoughts on WR Anthony Miller at Memphis?
I wrote up Miller a few weeks ago...love him. Gamer, has some Antonio Brown in him. Tough as nails.
Mid round LBs...Dorian O'Daniel/CLEMSON, Anthony Winbush/BALL STATE, Matthew Thomas/FLORIDA STATE, Azeem Victor/WASHINGTON
Thanks, man. You think there's room for him next to OBJ and Shep?
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In comment 13672999 adamg said:
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If I can ask a couple questions
Any WLBs on the radar in the 3-4th round range?
Thoughts on WR Anthony Miller at Memphis?
I wrote up Miller a few weeks ago...love him. Gamer, has some Antonio Brown in him. Tough as nails.
Mid round LBs...Dorian O'Daniel/CLEMSON, Anthony Winbush/BALL STATE, Matthew Thomas/FLORIDA STATE, Azeem Victor/WASHINGTON
Thanks, man. You think there's room for him next to OBJ and Shep?
He's not the ideal fit...but I am all about getting the good players in and letting it work itself out...Let these guys compete for snaps/plays/targets is not a bad approach
SF trading for Garoppolo helps then...
Potentially, it's not a bad year for it to happen. My concern is forcing (any) pick and the possibility the draft pick falls in the 7-10 range.
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that can project to a 4-3 OLB this year. Always a tough fit but feel we have been missing on, or trting to force a 3-4 guy into the position.
Also whats your read on Josh Adams. He seems like a big guy that doesnt, or doesnt have to use his body. Is that a tribute to him or his OL?
I'm not a huge Adams for the NFL guy....not yet. Don't like his build and he's had as much space to run in to as anyone. He is a solid athlete though, will break tackles, can runaway from guys. Similar to what SEA has in Prosise.
Lorenzo Carter from Georgia is an interesting edge guy that can play a 4-3 OLB role. I think Kennard has the spot locked down though. I think NYG needs more help on the weak side. Rashaan Evans is THE guy there.
Thanks
I feel Kenard's effectiveness as a pass rusher is more when he lines up at DE, think we need a guy that is a quicker more aggressive edge presence.
Huge mistake.
Don't be forced unless you really think the guy is there.
You've got two QBs on the roster already.
There will be QBs in next year's draft, and you can always trade up.
BPA!!!!!!!
I'm almost hoping we fall to the position where taking the ND guard isn't considered a reach.
I'm almost hoping we fall to the position where taking the ND guard isn't considered a reach.
Did you want Robert Gallery in 2004?
Eli can still play and they spent a 3rd on Webb.
Barkley would be such a slam dunk for this team if they can stay within the 2-3 range.
The draft is about the future.
UFA before the draft to try and full urgent needs.
No drafting need in a vacuum, and unless they believe big in Webb, his presence shouldn't preclude them from picking a blue chip QB.
Got to maximize the VALUE in each pick.
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instability at the OL. It's the weakest link on this football team.
I'm almost hoping we fall to the position where taking the ND guard isn't considered a reach.
Did you want Robert Gallery in 2004?
I can't remember, but if I did, I'm not sure what your point is.
Teams are going to miss on players everywhere in the draft.
My point is to make sure you taking a QB because he can be here for 10 years, not forcing a pick that ends up out of the league in three.
What do you see when watching Derwin James? Can he fit here?
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
But, it isn't necessarily his final year. Plus, if struggles like this now and has time in college left then he should go back and work on it. Who is to say he isn't Tommy Maddox part 2... Maddox should have stayed in school..
If Eli goes down and Webb gets in some games we might have an idea of where things can go. If not, all bets are off. BUT, if Reese goes so does McAdoo and that 100% means new QB. Could be a VET FA (Cousins) or more likely a top 10 draft pick...