Hey guys...I told Eric I would put this together this past weekend...just got caught up in some other work. Not going in to great detail but would love to get some discussion going over the next few days. So...just a few bulls points based on what I've seen this year. I still have a lengthy list of guys I have not seen, or have only seen 1x this year so everything is still very fluid.
1) The hyped QB class has been very underwhelming.
I had a feeling this would happen because even though I didn't scout these guys a year ago, I saw them plenty and wasn't woefully impressed. There are significant negatives to all of the top guys. The one that I think can be a legit star, however, is Josh Rosen/UCLA. He has the combination of repeatable throwing mechanics, arm power, accuracy, and feel in the pocket. He has had less help around him than all the other guys by far...none of the draft eligible QBs have had more drops by their targets than Rosen this year. He is now battling a hand injury, something to monitor. The most disappointing guy so far has been Sam Darnold. We can talk tools and ability in the clutch, but he is making downright awful decisions multiple times each week and hasn't protected the ball for a game yet. He needs to go back for his redshirt junior season.
Top 5 as of now:
1 - Josh Rosen - UCLA
2 - Baker Mayfield - OKLAHOMA
3 - Ryan Finley - NC STATE
4 - Josh Allen - WYOMING
5 - Mason Rudolph - OKLAHOMA STATE
2) The strongest position in the draft may be RB
After the 2017 Draft, I can recall Dave Te'Thomas saying there wouldn't be a single RB in the 1st round discussion. I remember thinking..."has Dave ever heard of Saquon Barkley?!?"...but now that we are in to the meat of the season, I think there are multiple guys in round 1 discussions. Barkley is, has been, and will continue to be by #1 overall player in the class. But some other 1st round caliber names that have emerged are Josh Adams/NOTRE DAME, Darrius Guice/LSU, Bryce Love/STANFORD, Damien Harris/ALABAMA, and Ronald Jones/USC. These are all guys that bring something special to the table and in a class that lacks star power at the top, RB may be the spot teams look to in terms of adding playmakers.
3). That brings me to another underwhelming group, the OTs.
The top OTs heading that I had heading in to the year have been, yet again, disappointing. It will be a slightly better overall group than what was out there in 2017, but not by much. The top guy is Orlando Brown/OKLAHOMA. At 6'8/330 with long arms and really strong hands, he can be a top level guy if he cleans up his footwork. He is the one guy that I think can be a too 5 overall type pick. Mike McGlinchey/NOTRE DAME has been exposed multiple times by speed and quickness and I now question if he can be a LT in the NFL.
4). It is possible the two highest OL grades will be OGs
Quentin Nelson/NOTRE DAME has been the most dominant AND most consistent OL in the nation. I have very little negatives to say about him. At his size (6'5/330) he shows tremendous ability to adjust to quickness and leverage. He has overwhelming strength and power from head to toe, and he is really smart. The second is a name many don't know about...Will Hernandez/UTEP. He doesn't get beat one on one and has the tools to double as a dominating bulldozer and light footed lead blocker in space. He has top tier potential, top tier.
5) There isn't going to be a ton of DE help
The theme of this draft class has been the main top-of-the-draft positions have not been overly strong in comparison to past years (QB-WR-LT-CB-DE). The DE group had a couple names with big circles around them coming in to the year, but they haven't stood out in the games I have scouted. Arden Key/LSU looks the part, but there are some off field concerns with him and frankly has not shown dominant traits. Harold Landry/BOSTON COLLEGE has failed to live up to the hype and I have poor grades on his effort and run defense multiple times so far this year. The one bright spot is Bradley Chubb/NC STATE who has top 10 potential and could fit in to a 4-3 DE role day one.
MORE SPECIFIC NYG DRAFT TALK
-Giants will be picking in the top 10, most likely in the top 7. Their "program" has hit an all time low since Manning has been here, Manning himself is near the end...have to think QB is on their short list right? It will very much depend on whether or not they fire Reese/McAdoo. I can't see them spending their top pick on a QB after using their 3rd rounder who hasn't seen the field yet in 2017. They will need a 2018 impact player, no questions asked. If those guys do get fired, QB will certainly be in the discussion. Who that is...partially depends on who is running the new regime. If you had to make me choose one right now, it's Rosen.
-So if not a QB, then what? I've been saying this since September and I'll keep saying it...if NYG has a shot at Barkley, take him. The OL can be figured out...he is a guy this team can rely on for a long time. I understand the importance of the OL as much as anyone out there...but he truly is a once in a lifetime caliber RB in my opinion.
-If no QB, and Barkley isn't there (I could see CLE going hard for him)...this is where it just gets muddy. I don't think there is going to be a LT worth taking that high (although OU's Brown is on my radar). The Giants CB trio went from a major perceived strength to three long term question marks. Somehow...man that is nuts. But one of my favorite defenders in the country over the past three years is Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. He plays literally everywhere...and easily projects to near top grade at FS, Nickel CB, and CB. He is a guy you bring in here then figure it out. Better version of what DAL has in Byron Jones.
-Where is the OL help going to come? Before NYG spends any money in free agency, the approach has to be OL first. Correct, you can't simply overpay for mediocre talent. But watching Russell Okung and Andrew Whitworth play at a very high level right now is tough to see...especially knowing NYG could have likely had either. Guys like that will be available and they must get one. If you can add a piece there and look to add a 2nd or 3rd rounder in the draft in addition to re-signing Pugh, this group could all of the sudden be a strength. Crazy thought right? If they want a day 2 OG, Tyrone Crowder/CLEMSON is a guy that fits the bill. I also like Braden Smith/AUBURN and Jamaica Jones/OHIO STATE that could project both inside and out.
-The LB situation continues to hamper them a bit, although not as drastic as its been in the past. The one guy I am being sold on hard right now is Rashaan Evans/ALABAMA. That program has had so. much talent in the past few years, so he had to wait his turn but in the 3 games I have scouted, he may be the best since CJ Mosley and maybe even better than that.
-Everyone's common line on NYG drafts is to "trade down get extra picks....etc. Remember...that is what EVERYONE wants to do. It's not easy...and a lot of that comes by partial luck and specific situations.
-I'll be able to get to any questions asked this afternoon and tomorrow. Thanks.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
That's one example illustrating the potential dilemma.
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the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
That's one example illustrating the potential dilemma.
And based on the Reese history in the 1st round of never trading down, they will stay right there and draft someone.
Finishing in the top 2 is the only way to ensure the Giants get the player they may want.
I could nonetheless see the Giants passing on all the QBs, and staying with Webb, although that is presumably less likely if there is a new coach and GM.
My problem with Reese is that he has never traded down. Never. Not once. In any round. I assume his refusal is because he doesn't want to risk losing certain players. But his record suggests that he should take that chance.
I'm fine with Barkely, but RBs tend to have a short shelf life in the NFL.
Thank you for another great write up.
Based on Sy's report and what I've read elsewhere, we'd do very well to pick the Notre Dame guard. He seems like the best player in college football.
Obviously a new regime is going to look for a QB. If this regime stays, it would be nice to continue the development of Webb.
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the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
That's one example illustrating the potential dilemma.
Then it will probably be a guy like Fitzpatrick. Remember DRC will most likely be gone and are you sold on Thompson as a FS?
Would the Giants even consider a trade down if their guy isn't there? pick up another 1st rounder and draft a solid OLineman?!
Remember their "premium positions" mantra.
Trading down sounds good on paper but me thinks Reese isn't good at it.
I'm OK with not trading down from a top five pick, but the question is whether Reese or someone else should make that selection.
Remember their "premium positions" mantra.
I think you're right. I also think the "premium positions" mantra is part of the reason this team is where it is.
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or Fitzpatrick is projected to CB in the NFL, it's very unlikely NYG picks a S at #3 overall.
Remember their "premium positions" mantra.
I think you're right. I also think the "premium positions" mantra is part of the reason this team is where it is.
Agreed, I'd still rather go big men early though unless the "non-premium" is obviously the better player.
They've got to stop spending #2 on DTs and letting them go, do a better job evaluating OL across the board, get out of the RB/LB bargain bin, etc.
Get the best players you can in the draft and FA, then determine what kind of team you're going to be. But we've been doing the opposite. We determine what kind of team we want to be, and then get the players that we think fit that style. Who knows how much talent you miss out on with that approach?
Take this guard from Notre Dame. It sounds like he is one of the best players in the draft, but because he's a guard and not a tackle we are unlikely to pick him. I think that's fucking nuts. If Larry Allen were in this draft, wouldn't you want to take him #1 overall? I know I would.
I think if you take a QB, this may fit best in today's NFL.
We talk about fixing the OL, but is it entirely fixable with the way players are coming out college????
Sounds like a ton of upside.
I think a new GM, a guy not in the Giants upbringing as Reese was, pushes Mara out of the picture in a methodical way...........
Just saw the highlight reel.....impressive movement and arm strength.
I think others have said he's struggled this year. How is their team overall?
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but I don't expect it to change unless Reese and his staff are ushered out. Even then, how much influence/blame does Chris Mara wield? He's not likely going anywhere, the collective philosophy needs some work.
I think a new GM, a guy not in the Giants upbringing as Reese was, pushes Mara out of the picture in a methodical way...........
It sounds good on paper, except his brother runs the franchise.
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In comment 13673275 JonC said:
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but I don't expect it to change unless Reese and his staff are ushered out. Even then, how much influence/blame does Chris Mara wield? He's not likely going anywhere, the collective philosophy needs some work.
I think a new GM, a guy not in the Giants upbringing as Reese was, pushes Mara out of the picture in a methodical way...........
It sounds good on paper, except his brother runs the franchise.
I think the brother is going to want to win. If he goes for firing Reese, I think John will be of the realization it has to be a one man show.
Even his dad learned that lesson, under GY.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Chris was probably in a position under Young? There was no way George Young was listening to Chris Mara.
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He plays on a team devoid of any talent but his own and comes across very mature. Cannon for an arm and has more athletic ability than the other QBs
I think if you take a QB, this may fit best in today's NFL.
We talk about fixing the OL, but is it entirely fixable with the way players are coming out college????
Sounds like a ton of upside.
^This. Spread offenses in college mean that offensive lineman are less likely to succeed in the NFL. DEs as a group are also much faster now than even 10 years ago. So you need a mobile QB. Allen is the most mobile QB in the draft. He can run. Rosen is a pocket passer.
I need to see more, and I'm not even saying the Giants shouldn't stay with Webb. But right now, Allen to me has the most talent of any of the big name QBs likely to be drafted next year.
Athletic ability won't be on the "Strong Points" portion of his report...but he isn't a bad athlete at all.
He is the most gifted thrower we've seen in awhile.
Unreal athlete....but he is a runner 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Then he is a passer. At this point, I wouldn't touch him...guys like that simply don't workout in the NFL. And no, he is not close to Vick.
Yes.
I just think this is the wrong way to approach the draft. If the player is excellent, where in the draft he was selected is of little consequence.
I really believe the way that NFL teams are being constructed is severely flawed. Recently I've been thinking a bit about Jim Fassel's quote regarding the NFL being populated by Phys. Ed. majors. No offense to Phys. Ed. majors, but the NFL seems overripe for new ideas.
What do you see when watching Derwin James? Can he fit here?
I'm not sold on James as elite...although many are. I thought he was better as a freshman than he is now. He looks very stiff, very straight line-based as a mover. Which I don't like at all...
I've seen him late to react in coverage, miss tackles...just not sure he is what NYG needs next to Collins. If there is a safety that would fit really well here right now, it is Ohio State's Damon Webb.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
Yeah, how has that worked out in recent years?
I like the LT from the Fighting Irish myself.
I am also more of a Josh Allen fan as far as the QB's go.
I have stated that before, Darnold reminds me of another
former USC product, Matt Barkley. Darnold looks like
a turnover machine this season. He might want to stay
another year at USC.
More than any other player in this draft, I think he's the closest to being an absolute lock to reach his peak potential, which is an All-Pro guard. In a draft where a lot of guys will have question marks, that's a major positive for Nelson.
I disagree with Sy when it comes to Darnold. All three of the big name QBs have struggled with decision making, although Darnold has certainly turned the ball over the most. I think he definitely needs another year in college, but I would take him if he was available. I think he has all of the underlying tools a guy needs to be a great QB in the NFL. Mayfield is a very difficult player for me to judge because his style of play and that offense makes it tough to envision him in an NFL offense.
I agree with Sy on McGlinchey. Talented/tough kid, but I don't think he's a LT. I'm not as big a fan of Orlando Brown as a high first rounder or a LT. When I look at him, I see Ereck Flowers... a guy who excels at that level just with brute size/strength.
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the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
Sy, I like Chubb, not sure I would draft him that high though. He might be a top 10 pick, we'll see.
I am also more of a Josh Allen fan as far as the QB's go.
I have stated that before, Darnold reminds me of another
former USC product, Matt Barkley. Darnold looks like
a turnover machine this season. He might want to stay
another year at USC.
Barkley didn't have the physical ability to be an NFL starter. That's not Darnold's issue. Being a "turnover machine" isn't even the issue either. Keep in mind, DeShaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Matt Ryan could all be considered "turnover machines" in their final year of college ball.
If I was advising Darnold, I'd ask him what all of the successful NFL QBs have in common? It's experience, on the field and off. They all started for 3 years. Nearly all of them were in college for 4 or 5 years. He's going to be a high pick no matter what, but I think he should set himself up for future success by staying in school.
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In comment 13673091 Reb8thVA said:
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the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
.
Sy, I like Chubb, not sure I would draft him that high though. He might be a top 10 pick, we'll see.
I would have said the same thing a month ago...but the dude can ball. He is very good and getting better...Late bloomer. There isn't a thing he can't do...and there isn't an edge rusher better than him.
Quote:
In comment 13673091 Reb8thVA said:
Quote:
the Giants pick #3 and Darnold stays in school.
Browns- Rosen QB
49ers- Barlkley RB
Giants-?
Whose the pick?
Depends on who is picking for NYG....but for the sake of your question:
Minkah Fitzpatrick - CB/Alabama
Orlando Brown - OT/Oklahoma
Bradley Chubb - DE/NC State
.
Sy, I like Chubb, not sure I would draft him that high though. He might be a top 10 pick, we'll see.
I may have a higher grade on Michel than Chubb.
Get the best players you can in the draft and FA, then determine what kind of team you're going to be. But we've been doing the opposite. We determine what kind of team we want to be, and then get the players that we think fit that style. Who knows how much talent you miss out on with that approach?
Take this guard from Notre Dame. It sounds like he is one of the best players in the draft, but because he's a guard and not a tackle we are unlikely to pick him. I think that's fucking nuts. If Larry Allen were in this draft, wouldn't you want to take him #1 overall? I know I would.
I agree. I also feel like scouts have lost the ability to get a feel for OL coming out. All we heard last year was that the OL class sucked, yet Cam Robinson and Ryan Ramcyk are anchoring the lines for two potential playoff teams.
Arden Tate. 6’5” FSU
Equanimous ST Brown. 6”5. Notre Dame
Sy. What are ur thoughts on these guys
I like both and would be happy with either.
Top Draft Prospects - ( New Window )
Arden Tate. 6’5” FSU
Equanimous ST Brown. 6”5. Notre Dame
Sy. What are ur thoughts on these guys
St. Brown certainly has 1st round talent, but he's only a redshirt sophomore. If his younger brother, one of the top high school prospects in the country, chooses Notre Dame, I seriously doubt St. Brown leaves school after this season.
I stand alone in not being all in on Barkley. Incredible athlete, great speed, apparently great attitude and teammate, but yet I still am not sure he has great instincts. Home run hitters in college do not always translate to the pros, and his hesitance to take the 3 yard gain worries me. That is the exact reason the Dolphins just bailed on Ajayi....if the long runs don't come, the value dramatically diminishes. Once again, I'm sure I'm wrong here, but considering our O-line, there is risk involved with Barkley.
All in all, a pretty terrible looking year to be at the top of the draft, at least as it appears now.