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NFT: Foreign policy gurus

ctc in ftmyers : 11/7/2017 8:22 pm
Gas prices and Saudi Arabia going after Iran, etc.

What is going on over there?
In CA  
TurdFurguson : 11/7/2017 9:33 pm : link
Our governor thought it prudent to raise gas tax 12 cents/gal. With no vote, just an act.
RE: In CA  
Jim in Fairfax : 11/7/2017 9:52 pm : link
In comment 13681379 TurdFurguson said:
Quote:
Our governor thought it prudent to raise gas tax 12 cents/gal. With no vote, just an act.

Not sure what that has to do with the Middle East. But your facts are in error. The gas tax increase was approved by a bill passed by both houses of the state legislature.
M
11 Saudi Princes Arrested By Crown Prince Mohammad  
madgiantscow009 : 11/7/2017 10:00 pm : link
Saudi Arabia first country to recognize AI Robot (Sophia) as citizen.
Didn't mean to send them yet  
madgiantscow009 : 11/7/2017 10:03 pm : link
but Saudi Arabi has been a little busy lately.

not sure if related, but it was probably the robot's fault.

Link - ( New Window )
Young, progressive Crown Prince is either  
Ben in Tampa : 11/7/2017 10:19 pm : link
A) serious about reforming the Saudi govít or
B) moving in on a consolidated power grab

Canít really be sure yet
RE: Young, progressive Crown Prince is either  
Modus Operandi : 11/8/2017 12:36 am : link
In comment 13681450 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
A) serious about reforming the Saudi govít or
B) moving in on a consolidated power grab

Canít really be sure yet


If history is an indicator - it's likely B.
RE: Young, progressive Crown Prince is either  
baadbill : 11/8/2017 1:01 am : link
In comment 13681450 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
A) serious about reforming the Saudi govít or
B) moving in on a consolidated power grab

Canít really be sure yet


It's not an either/or. He is definitely involved in consolidating his already considerable power. And "reforms" most certainly are not limited to democracies. Dictators can't rule without some support and providing modernizing reforms is a calculated bet he can win the support of the Saudi people. His risk is the almost certain destabilization that will result will spill out of control.

Destabilization of one of the primary stabilizing forces in the region is unsettling in that part of the world right now. It's nice to view this from a peachy "human rights" point of view, but we are talking about a part of the world that has a completely different culture than ours and doesn't necessarily react positively to changes we see as basic and good. Just not a good time for this imho.
RE: RE: In CA  
TurdFurguson : 11/8/2017 4:20 am : link
In comment 13681417 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
In comment 13681379 TurdFurguson said:


Quote:


Our governor thought it prudent to raise gas tax 12 cents/gal. With no vote, just an act.


Not sure what that has to do with the Middle East. But your facts are in error. The gas tax increase was approved by a bill passed by both houses of the state legislature.
M


My mistake. Moved out here a few years ago, had voted on a bunch of tax stuff last election and thought this was something that had to be put to a vote as well. Might have been new tax stuff I was voting on.
Crown Prince taking a HUGE risk  
JerebilJ : 11/8/2017 7:29 am : link
If reforming SA economy doesnít pan out, this will blow up spectacularly on him and the repurcussions will be devastating to the region. Meanwhile, Iran is playing a brilliant chess match that will set them up for future dominance in region for generations to come.
oil  
giantfan2000 : 11/8/2017 9:28 am : link
Econ 101
OPEC has cut production the past year = reduced supply
Global economy is picking up steam = increased demand
RE: Crown Prince taking a HUGE risk  
GentleGiant : 11/8/2017 9:48 am : link
In comment 13681561 JerebilJ said:
Quote:
If reforming SA economy doesnít pan out, this will blow up spectacularly on him and the repurcussions will be devastating to the region.


sorry, this made me laugh. I was just trying to imagine a devastated middle east then remembered all I had to do was open a newspaper.
RE: RE: Young, progressive Crown Prince is either  
njm : 11/8/2017 9:59 am : link
In comment 13681515 baadbill said:
Quote:
In comment 13681450 Ben in Tampa said:


Quote:


A) serious about reforming the Saudi govít or
B) moving in on a consolidated power grab

Canít really be sure yet



It's not an either/or. He is definitely involved in consolidating his already considerable power. And "reforms" most certainly are not limited to democracies. Dictators can't rule without some support and providing modernizing reforms is a calculated bet he can win the support of the Saudi people. His risk is the almost certain destabilization that will result will spill out of control.

Destabilization of one of the primary stabilizing forces in the region is unsettling in that part of the world right now. It's nice to view this from a peachy "human rights" point of view, but we are talking about a part of the world that has a completely different culture than ours and doesn't necessarily react positively to changes we see as basic and good. Just not a good time for this imho.


Or both, which is sort of what you said in your well written post. Let me add 2 things. First, something like 70% of the Saudi population is under 30. Some of them want to work but don't have the skills. Others want to sit around and be subsidized by the government, which it will not be able to do long term. And quietly, very quietly, a majority would like to see the Wahabbi rules governing their lives loosened. This is a generational issue that has been pretty much ignored by the old order. Second, and I hope s true guru will comment, like almost anything in Saudi Arabia there has to be a tribal aspect to this. I just don't know enough to opine on that one.
CTC mentioned gas  
idiotsavant : 11/8/2017 11:59 am : link
Obviously refining also comes into play. Was he talking about retail gasoline for cars or the natural gas market, or mainly barrels of oil.

Don't follow this at all but in oil as prices go up additional ready but dormant sources come on line as varied costs to extract come in line.
One thing to add to the mix  
njm : 11/8/2017 5:00 pm : link
WSJ article says "The Saudi government is aiming to confiscate cash and other assets worth as much as $800 billion in it's broadening crackdown on alleged corruption among the kingdom's elite, according to people familiar with the matter."

I'm sure some of that is overseas and difficult to get, but it sure would solve some of their cash woes. Either that of lead to a boom in new numbered Swiss bank accounts.
big picture / long view  
idiotsavant : 11/8/2017 5:12 pm : link
S.O.B. Saudis either wanted us dead or succored those who did. They rely greatly on oil whereas we are diversified and also benefit from cheaper energy broadly here at home...

Fracking and other new sources helped reduce pressure on the oil market... Prices went down.

We win - bitches
Saudi  
DanMetroMan : 11/8/2017 5:26 pm : link
Arabia is trying to adjust their economy mid-stream. For years money was siphoned illegally to individuals but now that the economy has "collapsed" due to gas prices they are going after their money. It's a really unique country. Under 30 age group is massive without a good job market. Pressure is on make changes.
RE: One thing to add to the mix  
DanMetroMan : 11/8/2017 5:28 pm : link
In comment 13682686 njm said:
Quote:
WSJ article says "The Saudi government is aiming to confiscate cash and other assets worth as much as $800 billion in it's broadening crackdown on alleged corruption among the kingdom's elite, according to people familiar with the matter."

I'm sure some of that is overseas and difficult to get, but it sure would solve some of their cash woes. Either that of lead to a boom in new numbered Swiss bank accounts.


A few of these guys were caught literally minutes before boarding planes to the US (we don't have an extradition treaty with Saudi Arabia despite being one of our allies). Some of this dates back to 2009 where hundreds of people died in floods that should not have killed that many people but money that should have been used for infrastructure was flat out stolen.
Shadenfreude  
idiotsavant : 11/8/2017 5:37 pm : link
.
Thanks for the responses.  
ctc in ftmyers : 11/8/2017 7:25 pm : link
Just been hearing bits and pieces of the Saudi power grab, the vacuum being left by ISIS which is making the Saudi/Iran relationship more shaky.

I realize that the rise in gasoline/diesel prices right now comes from delayed maintenance to the refineries due to the weather the past few months.

My question was, how will further escalating instability in the middle east affect prices. A lot of dynamics in play. Just not the middle east, but Russian/China relations as well.

The stuff that doesn't get covered for what passes as news in today's world.
RE: Thanks for the responses.  
njm : 11/9/2017 9:00 am : link
In comment 13682874 ctc in ftmyers said:
Quote:
Just been hearing bits and pieces of the Saudi power grab, the vacuum being left by ISIS which is making the Saudi/Iran relationship more shaky.

I realize that the rise in gasoline/diesel prices right now comes from delayed maintenance to the refineries due to the weather the past few months.

My question was, how will further escalating instability in the middle east affect prices. A lot of dynamics in play. Just not the middle east, but Russian/China relations as well.

The stuff that doesn't get covered for what passes as news in today's world.


The Saudi - Iran relationship has been beyond shaky for decades. Even with the common enemy of ISIS their actions were highly calculated to leave themselves in a stronger position vis-ŗ-vis the other after ISIS was defeated.

At the moment there is excess supply of oil, so it would take a pretty drastic action to cause a spike. And even then, as opposed to past crises, the ability to get a fracking operation up and running quickly will tend to mute the negative consequences.
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