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Will The Giants End Up With The Overall #1 Pick?

Jim in Tampa : 11/14/2017 3:54 pm
It seems like everyone is conceding the overall #1 pick to the Cleveland Browns because they are after all…the Cleveland Browns. But given the real possibility that the Giants may not win another game AND the Brown’s not-so-tough schedule, maybe the Giants could “win” the overall #1 spot after all.

Here are the remaining schedules for the “Biggest Losers”…

BROWNS
Jaguars
@ Bengals
@Chargers
Packers
Ravens
@ Bears
@ Steelers

The Jags and the Steelers are clearly better than the Browns but either could certainly lose to the Browns, especially if the Steelers have clinched their playoff spot before the last game and the Browns are still looking for that first win. The middle five opponents are all better than the Browns as well, but not significantly better that the Browns couldn’t pull off an upset or two.

49ers
Seahawks
@ Bears
@ Texans
Titans
Jaguars
@Rams

The 49ers have a tougher schedule no doubt, but the Bears and Texans (without Watson and Watt) are potential wins and once again, it’s possible the last game of the year could also be meaningless to the Rams if they’ve clinched their playoff slot.

Of course if the Giants lose their remaining games they will likely have the tiebreaker with SF anyway. That means that the 49ers may not even have to win another game to finish “behind” the Giants in the draft order. (See link to other BBI thread below.)

Having said all that, I think the Giants somehow find a way to win two more games to finish 3-13 and end up in the 3rd position. They will then trade up with SF (the #1 or #2 team) to take whatever QB they have the hots for.

So where do you think the Giants will end up in the NFL Draft order?

Tiebreaker With SF Thread - ( New Window )
Find a way into the top 2  
JonC : 11/14/2017 3:55 pm : link
by draft night, make it so.
There's no way the Browns are beating  
Giantology : 11/14/2017 3:58 pm : link
Sacksonville
I would prefer to trade down.  
Matt M. : 11/14/2017 3:59 pm : link
This is assuming they are in the top 3 spots.
Nah, they'll blow  
Pete in MD : 11/14/2017 4:02 pm : link
it a win a few games.
Browns will be #1  
Breeze_94 : 11/14/2017 4:05 pm : link
and pick Darnold. Giants will pick Rosen 2nd.
3-13  
mrvax : 11/14/2017 4:08 pm : link
and the 3rd or 4th in draft order is my guess.
Any game won  
bigbluehoya : 11/14/2017 4:10 pm : link
Is counter-productive right now. It’s a bitter reality.
RE: Browns will be #1  
Jim in Tampa : 11/14/2017 4:10 pm : link
In comment 13692231 Breeze_94 said:
Quote:
and pick Darnold. Giants will pick Rosen 2nd.


My fear is that Darnold stays in school if the Browns pick first and the Browns end up taking Rosen (the QB I prefer).

If the Giants pick in the top spot and pass the word to Darold that he would be their choice, then Darnold would be an absolute fool to go back to USC.
RE: Browns will be #1  
feelflows : 11/14/2017 4:12 pm : link
In comment 13692231 Breeze_94 said:
Quote:
and pick Darnold. Giants will pick Rosen 2nd.


Worse. Browns pick 1st, Darnold decides to play college another year instead of playing in Cleveland. Rosen goes 1 to Browns
RE: RE: Browns will be #1  
feelflows : 11/14/2017 4:12 pm : link
In comment 13692247 feelflows said:
Quote:
In comment 13692231 Breeze_94 said:


Quote:


and pick Darnold. Giants will pick Rosen 2nd.



Worse. Browns pick 1st, Darnold decides to play college another year instead of playing in Cleveland. Rosen goes 1 to Browns


Yeah...what Jim said.
Giants aren't winning another game  
KWALL2 : 11/14/2017 4:15 pm : link
Cleveland is playing better now. Great shot for NYG to get top pick.
RE: There's no way the Browns are beating  
Diver_Down : 11/14/2017 4:28 pm : link
In comment 13692218 Giantology said:
Quote:
Sacksonville


This. The Browns might not score against Jax. Their defense is for real. The Browns best chances are the Bears or Steelers. I could see the Steelers already having the playoff seeding set and could pull their starters.

San Fran could compete with the Hundley led Pack.

But all this is mute as apparently the draft order isn't decided by head to head and overall record. Ray in Arlington has been outlining the draft order probabilities each week and apparently the Strength of Schedule is the first deciding factor. Even though we lost to San Fran, they still pick ahead of us based on the SOS.
RE: RE: Browns will be #1  
Matt M. : 11/14/2017 4:28 pm : link
In comment 13692244 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
In comment 13692231 Breeze_94 said:


Quote:


and pick Darnold. Giants will pick Rosen 2nd.



My fear is that Darnold stays in school if the Browns pick first and the Browns end up taking Rosen (the QB I prefer).

If the Giants pick in the top spot and pass the word to Darold that he would be their choice, then Darnold would be an absolute fool to go back to USC.
In that case, you trade down, as they are in the spot for the the only other QB worth taking early.
Maybe  
adamg : 11/14/2017 4:29 pm : link
if they trade up with the Browns and snag a QB
I just feel it won't  
HoodieGelo : 11/14/2017 4:31 pm : link
matter either way. Whether we are #1, #2, #3, I'm honestly against taking a QB. The Giants still have Eli and we really have no clue what Webb has in him. I just think it would be dumb to draft a QB when there are so many other needs that should be addressed first.
Would be exciting!  
Jim in Forest Hills : 11/14/2017 4:32 pm : link
Make for a huge buildup.
It depends what they think of the blue chip QBs  
JonC : 11/14/2017 4:35 pm : link
If they carry the grade, you don't skip one because you've got Eli/Webb. You rarely pick as high as NYG will next April, try to see the longer game at play and draft accordingly.
I will be the first to say it  
Rjanyg : 11/14/2017 4:36 pm : link
The New York Giants are on the clock!!!

We will go 1-15 and I think the Browns win 2 and the Niners win 1 more.

Depressing but to be honest this is an excellent opportunity to clean house, New GM, New Coach and staff, 1st overall pick with a good amount of talent on this team.
RE: I just feel it won't  
Jim in Tampa : 11/14/2017 4:41 pm : link
In comment 13692277 HoodieGelo said:
Quote:
matter either way. Whether we are #1, #2, #3, I'm honestly against taking a QB. The Giants still have Eli and we really have no clue what Webb has in him. I just think it would be dumb to draft a QB when there are so many other needs that should be addressed first.


It's rare that you have an opportunity to pick in the top three spots. So in a QB-driven league and with a 37 yr. old QB as your starter, you absolutely have to draft a QB...unless you're just not sold on any of them.
Browns  
Sammo85 : 11/14/2017 4:53 pm : link
Have a shot in the Bengals, Chargers, Bears games.

I think by some curse we end up winning one more game somehow.

It would stink if we drop to 3rd. Niners if they have 2 will auction that pick off to a team that wants a QB. Lynch will demand a haul and if Giants want the pick he’ll make them pay a heavy price to move up one spot.
KWALL2  
Marty866b : 11/14/2017 4:58 pm : link
If memory serves me right you are a west coast guy. Which of the west coast quarterbacks do you prefer. You know my preference.
RE: RE: There's no way the Browns are beating  
Jim in Tampa : 11/14/2017 5:18 pm : link
In comment 13692272 Diver_Down said:
Quote:
In comment 13692218 Giantology said:


Quote:


Sacksonville



This. The Browns might not score against Jax. Their defense is for real. The Browns best chances are the Bears or Steelers. I could see the Steelers already having the playoff seeding set and could pull their starters.

San Fran could compete with the Hundley led Pack.

But all this is mute as apparently the draft order isn't decided by head to head and overall record. Ray in Arlington has been outlining the draft order probabilities each week and apparently the Strength of Schedule is the first deciding factor. Even though we lost to San Fran, they still pick ahead of us based on the SOS.


Diver. I think you misinterpreted Ray's thread. If things stayed the same the Giants would pick ahead of SF based on SOS.
Per GBN Report  
Pepe LePugh : 11/14/2017 5:27 pm : link
"In fact, the Browns would actually have to win at least two games to have move out of the top pick as both the Giants and 49ers, the league’s two one-win teams both have stronger strength of schedule numbers"
That's not happening. Giants will not get #1.
RE: RE: RE: There's no way the Browns are beating  
Diver_Down : 11/14/2017 5:36 pm : link
In comment 13692339 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
In comment 13692272 Diver_Down said:


Quote:


In comment 13692218 Giantology said:


Quote:


Sacksonville



This. The Browns might not score against Jax. Their defense is for real. The Browns best chances are the Bears or Steelers. I could see the Steelers already having the playoff seeding set and could pull their starters.

San Fran could compete with the Hundley led Pack.

But all this is mute as apparently the draft order isn't decided by head to head and overall record. Ray in Arlington has been outlining the draft order probabilities each week and apparently the Strength of Schedule is the first deciding factor. Even though we lost to San Fran, they still pick ahead of us based on the SOS.



Diver. I think you misinterpreted Ray's thread. If things stayed the same the Giants would pick ahead of SF based on SOS.


Actually, I'm not. Ray created his thread after our loss to San Fran. In which case, they still pick ahead of us despite beating us.
Ray's Draft Order Thread - ( New Window )
Well the last time we had a top 3 pick  
Steve L : 11/14/2017 6:01 pm : link
We got Eli. Hopefully the front office, whomever it is, doesn’t F it up.
I may be alone in my thinking  
superspynyg : 11/14/2017 6:10 pm : link
But I am very unsure about this Qb class. Having said that I don’t think the Gmenwill have pick 1. But if they do and you like one of the qbs then you go Qb. If not then trade out and get more picks OR go Barkley.

RE: RE: RE: RE: There's no way the Browns are beating  
shyster : 11/14/2017 6:15 pm : link
In comment 13692360 Diver_Down said:
Quote:
In comment 13692339 Jim in Tampa said:


Quote:


In comment 13692272 Diver_Down said:


Quote:


In comment 13692218 Giantology said:


Quote:


Sacksonville



This. The Browns might not score against Jax. Their defense is for real. The Browns best chances are the Bears or Steelers. I could see the Steelers already having the playoff seeding set and could pull their starters.

San Fran could compete with the Hundley led Pack.

But all this is mute as apparently the draft order isn't decided by head to head and overall record. Ray in Arlington has been outlining the draft order probabilities each week and apparently the Strength of Schedule is the first deciding factor. Even though we lost to San Fran, they still pick ahead of us based on the SOS.



Diver. I think you misinterpreted Ray's thread. If things stayed the same the Giants would pick ahead of SF based on SOS.



Actually, I'm not. Ray created his thread after our loss to San Fran. In which case, they still pick ahead of us despite beating us. Ray's Draft Order Thread - ( New Window )


I believe the 49ers rank ahead on that list because they are 1-9 (no bye yet) and NYG is 1-8.

If, however, both teams wind up with same number of wins, and the deciding factor goes to SOS, NYG is currently "leading" with the lower total non-common opponents' wins, 41 to 44.
Browns will beat the Ravens and Bears back to back  
The_Boss : 11/14/2017 6:44 pm : link
To finish 2-14
Nah  
David B. : 11/14/2017 7:12 pm : link
They'll win a game screw themselves out of a QB.
remember  
Mr. Nickels : 11/14/2017 7:59 pm : link
when we won a meaningless overtime game against the JETS in 2003
Cleveland  
old man : 11/14/2017 8:00 pm : link
May win one, even 2( they play Steelers /Ravens tough ).
SF could win 2 more(they play Seattle tough).
Giants : Skins and AZ maybe but highly doubt.
IT'S POSSIBLE.
And I'd be offering it up. Out of Browns,SF, TB, Bears,Bengals,AZ?, Denver,Miami that might round out 9 of top 10 picks, SF TB Bears don't need QB.
Fear may drive those remaining to make the jump for their guy, especially if Darnold stays in school...and others are fearful of a Big 12 QB.
RE: I just feel it won't  
Dr. D : 11/14/2017 8:38 pm : link
In comment 13692277 HoodieGelo said:
Quote:
matter either way. Whether we are #1, #2, #3, I'm honestly against taking a QB. The Giants still have Eli and we really have no clue what Webb has in him. I just think it would be dumb to draft a QB when there are so many other needs that should be addressed first.

I'm an Eli fan, but if they are in the top few picks and this is as good a QB draft as many say, you absolutely have to pick a QB. The fact that we have no clue about Webb is even more reason.

You only get to pick this high once in a blue moon, if you're not a perennial loser, and to do it in a strong QB draft when your starter is going to be 37? You would be freaking crazy not to draft a blue chip QB. The pick and Webb will sort itself out later.
Eric's clicks  
idiotsavant : 11/14/2017 8:46 pm : link
Must be increased vs 2016 and will increase more as draft day approaches.

Epic.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: There's no way the Browns are beating  
ray in arlington : 11/14/2017 8:51 pm : link
In comment 13692422 shyster said:
Quote:
In comment 13692360 Diver_Down said:


Quote:


In comment 13692339 Jim in Tampa said:


Quote:


In comment 13692272 Diver_Down said:


Quote:


In comment 13692218 Giantology said:


Quote:


Sacksonville



This. The Browns might not score against Jax. Their defense is for real. The Browns best chances are the Bears or Steelers. I could see the Steelers already having the playoff seeding set and could pull their starters.

San Fran could compete with the Hundley led Pack.

But all this is mute as apparently the draft order isn't decided by head to head and overall record. Ray in Arlington has been outlining the draft order probabilities each week and apparently the Strength of Schedule is the first deciding factor. Even though we lost to San Fran, they still pick ahead of us based on the SOS.



Diver. I think you misinterpreted Ray's thread. If things stayed the same the Giants would pick ahead of SF based on SOS.



Actually, I'm not. Ray created his thread after our loss to San Fran. In which case, they still pick ahead of us despite beating us. Ray's Draft Order Thread - ( New Window )



I believe the 49ers rank ahead on that list because they are 1-9 (no bye yet) and NYG is 1-8.

If, however, both teams wind up with same number of wins, and the deciding factor goes to SOS, NYG is currently "leading" with the lower total non-common opponents' wins, 41 to 44.


yes. I listed SF ahead of NYG because right now they have the better record. The tiebreak is now in favor of NYG 41 to 45. (due to CAR win over MIN)
i mean SF  
ray in arlington : 11/14/2017 8:51 pm : link
has the worse record right now.

If NYG lose to KC they will most probably be listed 2nd.
RE: I will be the first to say it  
Craigg619 : 11/14/2017 8:56 pm : link
In comment 13692283 Rjanyg said:
Quote:
The New York Giants are on the clock!!!

We will go 1-15 and I think the Browns win 2 and the Niners win 1 more.

Depressing but to be honest this is an excellent opportunity to clean house, New GM, New Coach and staff, 1st overall pick with a good amount of talent on this team.


I totally agree with you.

It is a horrid, brutal season, but if it were ever gonna happen, this truly is the best time it could've happened. This team has been overdue to clean house. Mcadoo went 11-5 last year but in my opinion, his offensive system is atrocious. Terrible blocking scheme and doesn't fit Eli's talent.

Also, Jerry Reese has needed to go for a while now too.

Mix that with a really good top QB class, you definitely need to take next franchise QB to start off new coach and gm and Giants do have a good amount of talent, they really do.
Giants have had the 1st overall pick twice in their history  
baadbill : 11/14/2017 9:07 pm : link
1951 1 Kyle Rote
1965 1 Tucker Frederickson

It would be exciting as hell for the Giants to have the first pick of every round.
Link - ( New Window )
I think San Fran wins one more  
est1986 : 11/14/2017 9:40 pm : link
Cleveland will win one, maybe even two
And I expect this Giants team to win at least one more game

So we could be looking at three team with a 2-14 record.

Darnold pulls a Eli draft move and forces his way to New York.

I would be happy with Barkley or Darnold wherever we pick and I think it will be top 3 for sure.
I think the Giants will richly deserve...  
M.S. : 11/15/2017 8:55 am : link

...the #1 pick with a 1-15 record.

Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield.

Meet our new franchise QB.
If they do and they play it right  
montanagiant : 11/15/2017 11:17 am : link
They could trade down 1-2 spots still get their guy and pick up a few other first day picks
RE: I think the Giants will richly deserve...  
montanagiant : 11/15/2017 11:19 am : link
In comment 13692727 M.S. said:
Quote:

...the #1 pick with a 1-15 record.

Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield.

Meet our new franchise QB.

Yeah I view us as the worst team in football right now. Both SF and Cleveland have the much better chances at wining another game
anyone who says we shouldn't pick a QB  
Dr. D : 11/15/2017 11:37 am : link
because we have Eli, are like those who thought we shouldn't in '04 because we still had Kerry Collins. Glad Ernie didn't think like some fans.

I love Eli, but it's time to think about life after him.
agreed  
msh : 11/15/2017 2:35 pm : link
eli is on the edge of his career i dont want the giants picking top 3 and possibly number 1 overall again for a very long time

webb is a 3rd round pick and eli is aging the reality is they need to look franchise QB and with dak and wentz already in the division that highlights the need there too washington is going to end up losing cousins and wonder why they did that as they look for someone to replace him

same the giants would look back and wonder why they didnt take the QB when this opportunity was presented yes webb may be good enough to take over from eli, if that is so then great they could easily trade the QB they draft this year in that scenario but they need to think QB and fix the OL,add a top tier CB with the troubles both drc and jenkins have caused them one of them is likely going (drc most probably)

they need to fix the OL before they even consider a RB this is why the david wilson was such a bad pick that #1 pick should have been spent on fixing the OL to make the RB they had better,this was further compounded by wilsons very short career this is the reason for the the OL they are fielding and losing behind right now
Fun fact  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 11/15/2017 3:28 pm : link
Trading down requires a team wanting to trade up and give fair compensation.

Some of you act as though the GM has a big red button on his desk that reads "trade down".
RE: Fun fact  
montanagiant : 11/15/2017 6:43 pm : link
In comment 13693220 LakeGeorgeGiant said:
Quote:
Trading down requires a team wanting to trade up and give fair compensation.

Some of you act as though the GM has a big red button on his desk that reads "trade down".

A low 1st round pick is not that hard at all to trade down with:
Quote:
If it seemed like there were a ridiculous number of trades in the 2017 NFL draft, you were correct. This year’s draft set a new record for trades. The previous record was 34 trades, set in 2008


Quote:
Rather than focusing on either element or the luck aspect, the purpose of this article is to review recent draft history, identify any trends and summarize the outcome of each trade. By my count there were 73 trades involving 123 first round selections during the 10-year study period. This counts some choices twice, such as when a team trades for a selection and then trades it away.

Link - ( New Window )
when it comes to a position  
Dr. D : 11/15/2017 8:00 pm : link
as incredibly important as your future QB, you don't get cute with trading down and hoping you still get your guy - unless there are more than one who are equal, which is rare.

A lot of people probably thought Eli, Rivers and Ben were pretty equal. Obviously the Giants didn't.

Good lord, some of the nonsense I read on these forums....  
Knineteen : 11/16/2017 12:04 am : link
Top 3 pick, with an aging QB on the roster? Guaranteed the Giants pick a QB.

No way this team gets the #1 pick. They are going to win 3-4 games and take themselves out of the running for a franchise QB.
RE: I would prefer to trade down.  
short lease : 11/16/2017 3:39 am : link
In comment 13692221 Matt M. said:
Quote:
This is assuming they are in the top 3 spots.


I am with you ... find a team that is in love with a QB coming out this year and trade down for boat load of extra picks.
RE: RE: I would prefer to trade down.  
Dr. D : 11/16/2017 11:35 am : link
In comment 13693648 short lease said:
Quote:
In comment 13692221 Matt M. said:


Quote:


This is assuming they are in the top 3 spots.



I am with you ... find a team that is in love with a QB coming out this year and trade down for boat load of extra picks.

Like we shouldn't be interested in a stud QB for the future?
Here's the thing  
montanagiant : 11/16/2017 12:12 pm : link
We get in the top 2 picks which is a very good possibility, we could trade down 1-2 spots and still get who we want while at the same time grabbing an extra 1st rd pick and at least 2 higher rd picks for doing it.

All you have to do is stipulate in the trade who you want and make sure the team their trading with understands that player is hands off.
RE: Here's the thing  
Dr. D : 11/16/2017 1:10 pm : link
In comment 13693965 montanagiant said:
Quote:
All you have to do is stipulate in the trade who you want and make sure the team their trading with understands that player is hands off.

But how about the other teams (in between your original pick and new lower pick) that aren't involved in the trade?
Eli Manning has nothing to do with picking a top QB  
Jimmy Googs : 11/16/2017 1:23 pm : link
if sitting in top two spots.

Eli's future value to the team is completely short term and may actually be nothing.

That pick is all about long term value.

RE: RE: Here's the thing  
montanagiant : 11/16/2017 1:37 pm : link
In comment 13694035 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 13693965 montanagiant said:


Quote:


All you have to do is stipulate in the trade who you want and make sure the team their trading with understands that player is hands off.


But how about the other teams (in between your original pick and new lower pick) that aren't involved in the trade?

You do due diligence on this. Everyone has an idea what the other teams are interested in and if your only trading back one spot there are no other teams to worry about. One spot still gets you multiple picks in the early rounds if your original pick is a low one.

If none of that works out you don't trade back but it would be silly to not explore the possibilities. One last thing, I predicate this on Reese being gone. I don't have any desire to see him handling anymore drafts for the Giants
RE: when it comes to a position  
Matt M. : 11/16/2017 2:13 pm : link
In comment 13693451 Dr. D said:
Quote:
as incredibly important as your future QB, you don't get cute with trading down and hoping you still get your guy - unless there are more than one who are equal, which is rare.

A lot of people probably thought Eli, Rivers and Ben were pretty equal. Obviously the Giants didn't.
The way the 2004 draft played out, I thought Accorsi was stupid for trading up. I absolutely love Eli and have no complaints with him as our QB. Back in 2004, I thought he was the best of the 3 and I still do. However, they didn't have to lose a single pick to have landed Roethlisberger, who I thought was the 2nd best. Now, had they traded up at the outset of the draft to ensure they got Eli, that is another story. But, they waited until their pick came around.
Ironically  
AnthonyM : 11/16/2017 2:59 pm : link
Every game we lose, it weakens the 49ers strength of schedule since they beat us.
RE: Ironically  
ray in arlington : 11/16/2017 4:58 pm : link
In comment 13694143 AnthonyM said:
Quote:
Every game we lose, it weakens the 49ers strength of schedule since they beat us.


It would weaken the 49ers strength of schedule whether they beat us or not.

RE: Eli Manning has nothing to do with picking a top QB  
baadbill : 11/16/2017 8:37 pm : link
In comment 13694051 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
if sitting in top two spots.

Eli's future value to the team is completely short term and may actually be nothing.

That pick is all about long term value.


Agree 100%. Whether Manning retires this year or plays several more years is completely irrelevant. He is at the very end of his career. The Giants hopefully won't get another top 5 draft pick for 20 years. THIS is the time to pick your future QB. End of story.
Crazy thing is  
mrvax : 11/16/2017 10:27 pm : link
neither the fans or staff have any idea how Webb might perform in the NFL. Right now, he's a guess like the 2018 QB class.

I suppose playing him for half a game for a few weeks would be dumb???
RE: RE: RE: I would prefer to trade down.  
short lease : 11/19/2017 3:05 am : link
In comment 13693923 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 13693648 short lease said:


Quote:


In comment 13692221 Matt M. said:


Quote:


This is assuming they are in the top 3 spots.



I am with you ... find a team that is in love with a QB coming out this year and trade down for boat load of extra picks.


Like we shouldn't be interested in a stud QB for the future?



We should be but, I would like for the Giants to not force the pick just because they may have the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft. That shouldn't mean you grab a QB automatically.

I am a college Football fan but, I don't know much about scouting college players. I am reading that the top 2-3 QBs coming out this year are not as strong as previous classes and 2017 is not a very good year to take a QB that high.

I do know (think) that the Giants have a lot of holes that need filling on both side of the ball. When rebuilding a team the more picks you have the better (imho).
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