here is a list of Buffalo Bills starting QB's since Jim Kelly retired.
The purpose of this is to demonstrate my belief when you have the chance at a franchise QB you draft that QB. You don't trade down so someone else can get Mahomes, you draft Mahomes (for example).
you trade up for Wentz not Sammy Watkins.
Kelly retired in 1996:
Todd Collins
Alex Van Pelt
Doug Flutie
Rob Johnson
Drew Bledsoe
JP Losman
Kelly Holcomb
Trent Edwards
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Brian Brohm
EJ Manuel
Thad Lewis
Jeff Tuel
Kyle Orton
Matt Cassel
Tyrod Taylor
Nathan Peterman
17 different starting QB's in 20 seasons.
Only two of those (Johnson and Flutie) made the playoffs, and zero playoff appearances since 1999.
Miami has an "impressive" list since Marino too.
Anyway the point is QB's are hard to replace and with some of these teams it not for lack of trying, it's a combination of poor evaluation (EJ Manuel/JP Losman), poor circumstances (when they have high picks there isn't a lot of QB options), and poor overall strategy (trade up for Watkins but not for a QB?)
Makes me think how important the Eli to ? transition is, for those who may not already realize it.
I think it's imperative we solve that position and it's better to throw more assets at it than take the risk a single guy bombs.
I simultaneously don't want us reaching for a guy in the top three if we don't have high grades on them.
Worst case is you're mediocre like the Dolphins have often been and then you're still in QB purgatory.
No NFL team wants to be in QB purgatory.
The 2018 draft, if the Giants stay in their current draft spot or improve it, will be significantly franchise altering for the Giants (captain obvious?).
It truly underscores the importance of having a franchise caliber player that one can depend on for a long time. Everything else then becomes easier to deal with.
2014:
Bortles, manziel and Bridgewater (I would say this is pretty darn average with Bortles possibly being looked at as needing to be replaced soon)
2015:
Goff, Wentz and Lynch (1 proven, 1 getting there and 1 unknown)
2013:
Horrible (EJ Manuel)
2012:
Luck, Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011:
C. Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder
The point is, trading abck may very well be the right choice. Why waste a pick on Webb just to go QB next year. It isn't the same thing as letting guys battle it out. You would be sacrificing a player at another position for a battle with another player at the same position. Let's say this happens. The 2018 1st Rd pick will have an advantage period because of the high draft selection. So, he may be unfairly given status above Webb (3rd in 2017). But, at the same time neither guy may prove to be the GUY next year. So you waste a 3rd in 17, a first in 18 while letting other positions falter.
I am not saying don't draft a QB and not saying don't draft him in top 3-5 pick. BUT, you can't just eliminate trade downs for more picks or selections of a better player elsewhere because of a preconceived idea that a QB has to be taken at top of the draft.
Bills were spinning their wheels. Another team deluding themselves by thinking that the Gentleman's 92 QB rating + mobility = TDs.
You could almost fill a phone book.
As a result, I got to see some HS and college games Dan played at CC and Pitt.
When he graduated from Pitt, he had had a knee injury and there were rumors swirling that he was involved in some unsavory practices with marijuana though never proved.
Even though we had drafted Simms in the first round a few years earlier, I prayed and hoped and prayed some more that we would draft Marino in the first round.
Instead we drafted Terry Kinard (#10) which was okay because we had a need at safety and Phil had an excellent career with the Giants.
However, Dan wasn't picked until 27th by Miami and while he only reached one SB and never won the big game, Miami was a scary team for all the years he was their starting QB.
I wouldn't argue with Indy choosing Elway #1 overall, but the QB's drafted between Elway and Marino were Todd Blackledge (#7 KC), Jim Kelly (#14 Buffalo- No argument here either!), Tony Eason (#15 NE) and the infamous Ken O'Brien (#24- NYJ).
I wonder if the fortunes would have changed for the Jets if they drafted Marino at 24 instead of O'Brien?
How about KC or New England.
How about the teams that drafted "ho-hummers" before Marino like Seattle with Curt Warner (#3), San Diego with Billy Ray Smith (#5)or the Eagles with Michael Haddix (#8).
I agree that if there is a stud QB with the top 2 or 3 pick next spring, we need to grab him! It could be a franchise changing move either for the positive......or conversely, for the negative.
Bills were spinning their wheels. Another team deluding themselves by thinking that the Gentleman's 92 QB rating + mobility = TDs.
Then you put your eggs in that basket. Put your faith in the scouts and front office and roll with Webb.
When you look at the top QB's of this era Brady and Wilson stand out as outliers though. franchise QB's are not coming from the 3rd round or beyond traditionally in the NFL.
While Peyton, Ben, Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Ryan, Luck, and while it's still early now it sure looks like Wentz, Goff, and Watson, even expand the list to Newton, Stafford, Alex Smith, with Mariota as a ?, but they're all 1st round picks and add in Brees and Carr as a high 2nd's.
statistics are not on the side of finding a franchise QB in the 3rd round.
Doesn't mean Webb won't be it, but saying it would be a statistical anomaly.
Flip side is yes, there have been a bunch of 1st round QB busts, so you must choose wisely. Nothing is a slam dunk.
My point is trading down, while a fan mantra does not solve the QB problem.
this year.
Worst thing that can happen is a trade down and winding up with mid-to-late firsts and not having the shot at the franchise QB.
Stats are for losers, but they also don't lie. Look how much Brady skews this.
Let Webb and the pick battle it out in '19. If the winner really is our franchise QB and durable, trade the other.
We CANNOT let the presence of Webb stop us from drafting a stud QB. That's what stupid franchises do. And too many times it takes a couple years to find out the guy they had really isn't a stud franchise QB. Not saying Webb can't be, but we CANNOT depend on it.
Let Webb and the pick battle it out in '19. If the winner really is our franchise QB and durable, trade the other.
We CANNOT let the presence of Webb stop us from drafting a stud QB. That's what stupid franchises do. And too many times it takes a couple years to find out the guy they had really isn't a stud franchise QB. Not saying Webb can't be, but we CANNOT depend on it.
In my opinion, for a team with a lot of needs, having two top draft picks holding the clipboard behind Eli for a few years is a waste. I'd rather draft a OL/RB/LB type player who can help day 1 theoretically. If Webb doesn't work out there will be QB's there again next year, even maybe Darnold.
As a result, I got to see some HS and college games Dan played at CC and Pitt.
When he graduated from Pitt, he had had a knee injury and there were rumors swirling that he was involved in some unsavory practices with marijuana though never proved.
Even though we had drafted Simms in the first round a few years earlier, I prayed and hoped and prayed some more that we would draft Marino in the first round.
Instead we drafted Terry Kinard (#10) which was okay because we had a need at safety and Phil had an excellent career with the Giants.
However, Dan wasn't picked until 27th by Miami and while he only reached one SB and never won the big game, Miami was a scary team for all the years he was their starting QB.
I wouldn't argue with Indy choosing Elway #1 overall, but the QB's drafted between Elway and Marino were Todd Blackledge (#7 KC), Jim Kelly (#14 Buffalo- No argument here either!), Tony Eason (#15 NE) and the infamous Ken O'Brien (#24- NYJ).
I wonder if the fortunes would have changed for the Jets if they drafted Marino at 24 instead of O'Brien?
How about KC or New England.
How about the teams that drafted "ho-hummers" before Marino like Seattle with Curt Warner (#3), San Diego with Billy Ray Smith (#5)or the Eagles with Michael Haddix (#8).
I agree that if there is a stud QB with the top 2 or 3 pick next spring, we need to grab him! It could be a franchise changing move either for the positive......or conversely, for the negative.
I thought the rumors on Marino were about cocaine?
And the player picked after Marino was one of the best DBs ever, Darrell Green.
Josh Rosen is going to be a star at the next level
Quote:
preclude us from taking a stud QB with a high first rd pick.
Let Webb and the pick battle it out in '19. If the winner really is our franchise QB and durable, trade the other.
We CANNOT let the presence of Webb stop us from drafting a stud QB. That's what stupid franchises do. And too many times it takes a couple years to find out the guy they had really isn't a stud franchise QB. Not saying Webb can't be, but we CANNOT depend on it.
In my opinion, for a team with a lot of needs, having two top draft picks holding the clipboard behind Eli for a few years is a waste. I'd rather draft a OL/RB/LB type player who can help day 1 theoretically. If Webb doesn't work out there will be QB's there again next year, even maybe Darnold.
It's really not "a few years", it's realistically 2018.
I could see a reasonable scenario where the Giants are NOT paying $23.2M on the cap for 39 year old Eli Manning, but agree to a mutual parting of the ways.
It's MUCH easier to fill out a roster, then it is to find a stud franchise QB.
As I said on another thread, you only get to pick in the top few picks once in a blue moon (unless you're a perennial loser). To be able to do it when there's a stud QB or 2 available, you worry about the other parts later.
We cannot depend on Webb being the guy. Maybe he will be, but we can't depend on it. And we can't judge whether he is or not by evaluating him in December.
I swear some of you probably wish the Giants picked Sean Taylor or an offensive lineman in '04 instead of Eli. I know some were saying, "we have Kerry Collins and we have other needs". Bullshit.
F the other needs, figure them out later.
Jay Fiedler
Damon Huard
Ray Lucas
Brian Griese
AJ Feeley
Sage Rosenfels
Gus Frerotte
Daunte Culpepper
Joey Harrington
Cleo Lemon
Trent Green
John Beck
Chad Pennington
Chad Henne
Tyler Thigpen
Matt Moore
Ryan Tannehill
Jay Cutler
18 QB's in 18 yeas.
and that includes a 4+ year stretch of just Tannehill.
It's MUCH easier to fill out a roster, then it is to find a stud franchise QB.
As I said on another thread, you only get to pick in the top few picks once in a blue moon (unless you're a perennial loser). To be able to do it when there's a stud QB or 2 available, you worry about the other parts later.
We cannot depend on Webb being the guy. Maybe he will be, but we can't depend on it. And we can't judge whether he is or not by evaluating him in December.
I swear some of you probably wish the Giants picked Sean Taylor or an offensive lineman in '04 instead of Eli. I know some were saying, "we have Kerry Collins and we have other needs". Bullshit.
F the other needs, figure them out later.
No, I understand and agree on the importance of a QB. I just disagree with people automatically dismissing Webb before he gets a chance. We may already have our guy. His senior year was better than almost all of these guys, he came from the Pac-12 also, he has the size and skillset, and he's been behind Eli for a year also. I also understand the dings on him, however all these guys have dings, and I see nothing that tells me any of these guys are better than what we have right now in Webb. I may be wrong, but I may be right. Regardless I think the best chance to take is see what we have in Webb and build elsewhere with this draft.
I have NOTHING against Webb, but we have no idea whether he's the next franchise QB. Some here have used that as a reason NOT to draft another QB. Huh? Because he MIGHT be?
If he is a stud and we draft another, we trade one for a high pick.
I'd say Kosar even though he's not in Kelly or Marino's class, but those Browns moved to Baltimore.
So this is since 1999 expansion draft.
Tim Couch
Doug Pederson
Spergon Wynn
Kelly Holcomb
Jeff Garcia
Luke McCown
Trent Dilfer
Charlie Frye
Derek Anderson
Brady Quinn
Ken Dorsey
Bruce Gradkowski
Colt McCoy
Jake Delhomme
Seneca Wallace
Brandon Weeden
Thad Lewis
Jason Campbell
Brian Hoyer
Johnny Manziel
Connor Shaw
Josh McCown
Austin Davis
RG3
Cody Kessler
DeShone Kizer
Kevin Hogan
27 QB's in 17 seasons. holy shit.
And I don't want to put it off another year. Next year could be Eli's last.
And I don't want to put it off another year. Next year could be Eli's last.
My personal opinion is that with our bad season, fans are "reaching" for a QB here. I think lots are overrating these guys and making a huge leap that they are sure things. One example is Allen. The pro-Allen camp now says that sure Allen's stunk, but his team stinks and we should draft him anyway. I don't think we should use a top 10 pick on a guy unless he's lighting it up. Lower rounds sure. These guys have lots of red flags. Also the more I read up on what scouts are saying, I keep reading that this class looks like it was initially overrated. Grabbing a QB with our top 10 pick just because he's a QB is a reach. I don't see anyone yet who looks like Wentz or Goff, but I guess the combine will shake that out. Finally having Webb does matter to me. We don't need to reach and take a chance, because odds are they won't be any better than Webb.
Todd took over for Namath in 1977.
Josh McCown
Bryce Petty
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Michael Vick
Geno Smith
Greg McElroy
Mark Sanchez
Kellen Clemens
Brett Favre
Kellen Clemens
Chad Pennington
Brooks Bollinger
Quincy Carter
Chad Pennington
Ray Lucas
Rick Mirer
Vinny Testaverde
Glenn Foley
Frank Reich
Neil O'Donnell
Bubby Brister
Jack Trudeau
Boomer Esiason
Browning Nagle
Kyle Mackey
Tony Eason
David Norrie
Ken O'Brien
Pat Ryan
Matt Robinson
Marty Domres
Richard Todd
Who needs Carson Wentz, when you already have a QB and have so many other needs?
In some drafts over the years, there have only been one great. Others there are 2-3, but others have been picked in between. Just look at the ones picked between Elway and Marino.
I just want to maximize our odds.
2017 Eli Manning (8)
2016 Eli Manning (16)
2015 Eli Manning (16)
2014 Eli Manning (16)
2013 Eli Manning (16)
2012 Eli Manning (16)
2011 Eli Manning (16)
2010 Eli Manning (16)
2009 Eli Manning (16)
2008 Eli Manning (16)
2007 Eli Manning (16)
2006 Eli Manning (16)
2005 Eli Manning (16)
2004 Kurt Warner (9) / Eli Manning (7)
2003 Kerry Collins (13) / Jesse Palmer (3)
2002 Kerry Collins (16)
2001 Kerry Collins (16)
2000 Kerry Collins (16)
You never know what you have until its gone.
2017 Eli Manning (8)
2016 Eli Manning (16)
2015 Eli Manning (16)
2014 Eli Manning (16)
2013 Eli Manning (16)
2012 Eli Manning (16)
2011 Eli Manning (16)
2010 Eli Manning (16)
2009 Eli Manning (16)
2008 Eli Manning (16)
2007 Eli Manning (16)
2006 Eli Manning (16)
2005 Eli Manning (16)
2004 Kurt Warner (9) / Eli Manning (7)
2003 Kerry Collins (13) / Jesse Palmer (3)
2002 Kerry Collins (16)
2001 Kerry Collins (16)
2000 Kerry Collins (16)
You never know what you have until its gone.
Agreed. Also, Eli has played 9 games this year.
Bob Griffin was the second pick in 2012.
Ryan Tannehill was the eighth pick in 2012.
Jake Locker was the eighth pick in 2011.
Sam Bradford was the first pick in 2010.
Mark Sanchez was the fifth pick in 2009.
Jamarcus Russell was the first pick in 2007.
Vince Young was the third pick in 2006.
Etc, etc, etc
That said, if you are in position to take a QB high, you have conviction on one, and it's time to plan for the future you have to pull the trigger regardless of who is on your roster.
Bob Griffin was the second pick in 2012.
Ryan Tannehill was the eighth pick in 2012.
Jake Locker was the eighth pick in 2011.
Sam Bradford was the first pick in 2010.
Mark Sanchez was the fifth pick in 2009.
Jamarcus Russell was the first pick in 2007.
Vince Young was the third pick in 2006.
Etc, etc, etc
Agree, that's the conundrum, miss and you're screwed, but hit and you can be set up for success for a long time, in fact maybe the most clear way to set your team up for success is the franchise QB.
Let the pick and Webb battle it out for the future. Hopefully one of them will be our QB for the next 10+ years and we don't have to draft another for a long time.
And we won't have any nasty list of QBs since Eli.
Having two highly regarded QBs to battle it out for long term starter, maximizes our odds.
Again I have nothing against Webb, but we shouldn't assume he's the guy and he shouldn't just be handed the job, regardless of how hard a worker he's known to be.
If you miss on a QB:
a: you are going to give them a lot of chances to prove themself and your team will suffer
b: you used a premium pick on a failed prospect at your most important position
just look how the mediocrity to poor play of Flowers and Apple plagued the team early on.
To say because the investment from a salary cap standpoint isn't as much should mean missing on your early first QB shouldn't be a consideration is very short-sighted.
What it does allow though is for that QB to sit for a year and be mentored because normally the QB position cap % is very high, when you get a franchise QB on a rookie deal you're saving a lot, but you need to maximize those years (like Seattle did with Russel Wilson) to truly exploit it.
With the new rookie salary slotting, what difference does it make if the high pick bust is a QB, OT or CB?
If you only pick in the top few picks once in a blue moon and it happens when your franchise QB is near the end of his career, the downside of missing on a QB is outweighed, imo, by the increased odds of getting your long term QB.
#SuckFor_______ if NP isn't an NFL QB.
It'll likely produce losses and give them a better draft spot to either trade up for a QB given their 2 1s...or...stay where they end up and get 2 firstrounders for other needs.
It'll P-off Shady but they likely trade him draftday.
We might get our next franchise QB partly because we sucked so bad in '17. Or the pick will push Webb but Webb will win out and the pick will ultimately be traded.
But just assuming and hoping Webb is the guy is not wise imo.
The reality is Eli is finished, he still makes the same mistakes (EVERY GAME) he did 10 years ago. He either needs to restructure his deal or tell Giants where he would like to be traded
As for future, Webb needs to play NOW, let him fail or succeed. Then Giants can decide what road to take regarding future.
All coaches and players notified their futures are in play. Who Rises?
So drafting a QB is a crap-shoot, what else is new?
Drafting in general is a crap-shoot.
But we can't just assume Webb is the guy and hand him the job, no more than we should hand it to a high first round pick.
Two young QBs competing is better than one. It increases our odds and competition is always good.
It's not just "competition for a starting role in 2019/2020". It's the freaking Quarterback! A QB who will hopefully start for the next 10-12 years!
The Browns, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, et al have drafted some nice OL and D players in the first round over the last 20-40 years. Where did it get them?
If you don't have a quality QB, you don't have shit.
The rest of the roster is much easier to assemble. The QB is the most difficult to find rare piece.
That said, if you are in position to take a QB high, you have conviction on one, and it's time to plan for the future you have to pull the trigger regardless of who is on your roster.
Redskins QBs since their last Super Bowl in 1991, by games started:
1992: Mark Rypien (16)
1993: Mark Rypien (10), Rich Gannon (4), Cary Conklin (2)
1994: Heath Shuler (8), John Friesz (4), Gus Frerotte (4)
1995: Gus Frerotte (11), Heath Shuler (5)
1996: Gus Frerotte (16)
1997: Gus Frerotte (13), Jeff Hostetler (3)
1998: Trent Green (14), Gus Frerotte (2)
1999: Brad Johnson (16)
2000: Brad Johnson (11), Jeff George (5)
2001: Tony Banks (14), Jeff George (2)
2002: Shane Matthews (7), Patrick Ramsey (5), Danny Wuerffel (4)
2003: Patrick Ramsey (11), Tim Hasselbeck (5)
2004: Mark Brunell (9), Patrick Ramsey (7)
2005: Mark Brunell (15), Patrick Ramsey (1)
2006: Mark Brunell (9), Jason Campbell (7)
2007: Jason Campbell (13), Todd Collins (3)
2008: Jason Campbell (16)
2009: Jason Campbell (16)
2010: Donovan McNabb (13), Rex Grossman (3)
2011: Rex Grossman (13), John Beck (3)
2012: Robert Griffin III (15), Kirk Cousins (1)
2013: Robert Griffin III (13), Kirk Cousins (3)
2014: Robert Griffin III (7), Kirk Cousins (5), Colt McCoy (4)
2015: Kirk Cousins (16)
2016: Kirk Cousins (16)
2017: Kirk Cousins (9)
Bottomline, Webb is a lottery ticket (like Nassib was). If we have a shot at a legit first round talent (even a mid-first round talent) at QB, we should take him. A better lottery ticket to pair with our third round lottery ticket. Hopefully one pans out. If both pan out (incredibly unlikely) - great, you trade one for another first rounder down the road.
This thread is all about how multiple teams have gone years without a franchise QB, but some don't seem to be connecting the dots.
The reality is that for every Dak and Russell, there are several that are at best, career backups and some who are out of the league in a short time.
My personal opinion on that is I would play less attention to the stats, and focus more on how they play if you get mu distinction. Look at the mechanics, style of offense, obviously size, arm strength, etc.
their stats are low on the list of what I'd use to make a decision on if they're a franchise QB or not.