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NFT: Yankees chat 11/16: Favorites for Otani? Judge MVP?

bceagle05 : 11/16/2017 1:35 pm
Heyman's column today indicates the Yankees are the favorites for Otani, assuming the posting logistics get worked out. All parties have set a Monday deadline for that, as the Otani stalemate is believed to be holding up other free agent activity....

Quote:
The other, even bigger, advantage, the Yankees are thought to have is that, well, they are the Yankees, a major, worldwide brand, which brings extra exposure and more earning potential (though Otani hasn’t shown any real interest in money to this point; if he did he’d just wait the two years).

Japanese players are seen as preferring either the Yankees or Dodgers due to the prestige of the league’s respective marquee franchises, and it is no surprise that those two teams have had the most success with Japanese players (the Yankees have had Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka, and the Dodgers Hideo Nomo and Kenta Maeda), which provides some positive history. And in this case, where the player very likely will be signing for something well below his market value, there is an expectation that marketing opportunities will come into play.

“The Yankees are the favorite, there’s no other way to look at it,” one National League executive said.

Heyman - ( New Window )
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Maybe if Judge hits 85 HRs next season,  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 11/16/2017 7:27 pm : link
he can get up to 10 first place votes.
The BBWA  
Phil in LA : 11/16/2017 7:35 pm : link
should be stripped of its voting privileges. They don't know a thing about what they are assigned to cover.
I don't follow much baseball  
Big Rick in FL : 11/16/2017 7:42 pm : link
Don't ever post on baseball threads so take this with a grain of salt. My barbershop is about 3 minutes from the Yankees training facility on Himes. A lot of Yankees get their haircut there during Spring Training. I met Aaron Judge, Pineda, Betances, Severino & Torreyes there this past spring training. When I was in there today there was a guy in their who works for the Yankees. I don't know who he is, but he was probably in his mid 40s. A few of the barbers were talking with him about Otani. He said if Otani does decide to come to the MLB that the Yankees feel they have a 75-80% chance of Otani signing with them. He said there are only 3 teams really in the running for him. He said it's basically the Yankees, Dodgers & Rangers. He said the Rangers are the biggest longshot so it's basically down to the Yankees & Dodgers. He said he's very confident in the Yankees getting him because they can offer a little over 3 million and the Dodgers can only offer around 300k. He said the Yankees have Matsui & Tanaka in constant contact with Otani to recruit him for the Yankees. Like I said I don't really follow baseball, but I started reading about Otani after I left the barbershop and the dude sounds like an absolute stud. Seems like a guy who could win an MVP award at a young age.

I know this doesn't really mean much. So take it with a grain of salt, but I figured I'd pass it along to my fellow Giants fans.
Maybe Judge lost for this 2 month stretch  
twostepgiants : 11/16/2017 7:45 pm : link
"judge, who’s hitting .183/.350/.355 with a 34.1 percent strikeout rate since the All-Star break, has only eight homers in that span,"
It's for the season  
Phil in LA : 11/16/2017 7:58 pm : link
not two months, and even with those two months where he was playing through a shoulder and a knee, he had a better season than Altuve. He got on more, scored more and prevented more. That's the whole game. He was better, and these fucking putz reporters don't understand baseball.
Thanks for the info, Big Rick!  
bceagle05 : 11/16/2017 8:13 pm : link
.
Good stuff Rick  
B in ALB : 11/16/2017 8:14 pm : link
.
Altuve is outstanding and deserved the award  
RasputinPrime : 11/16/2017 8:18 pm : link
just not necessarily as much as Judge.

Awards are goofy anyways.
RE: Wow. This shit is rigged.  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/16/2017 8:22 pm : link
In comment 13694373 Ace718 said:
Quote:
I'm not surprised that Altuve won. But Altuve winning in a landslide? That's shocking. How could the NL race be so much closer? The baseball writers just don't like NY.

It's two separate sets of voters.
No prob guys  
Big Rick in FL : 11/16/2017 9:18 pm : link
For my Dad's sake I really hope the Yankees get Otani and he meets the hype he is getting. My Dad is getting old. My Sister died a few months ago. My Grandpa (My Dad's Father) died a few weeks after that right before the Giants season started. Now the Giants fucking suck. Plus the Yankees lost in the ALCS. So we've had a really rough year. Hoping the Yankees signing Otani will help cheer my Dad up a little bit. After my Sister and Grandpa died my Dad got back into drinking heavy and it's been terrible.
Big Rick  
bigbluehoya : 11/16/2017 9:22 pm : link
All the best to your Dad, man.
BigblueHoya  
Big Rick in FL : 11/16/2017 9:25 pm : link
Thanks man! He needs it. Losing his Daughter & Dad in a two month span really fucked him up. Need some positive sports moments.
why are people so concerned  
PaulBlakeTSU : 11/16/2017 9:29 pm : link
with the difference in first place votes between Altuve and Judge? They were both great players, but Altuve had a more consistent season and put up significantly better numbers in high leverage situations. His win is completely defensible.

The 27-2 first place votes doesn't mean that writers thought Altuve was THAT much better than Judge this season-- only that the overwhelming majority of voters thought Altuve was at least a hair better than Judge and cast their vote for him. It's an NBA best-of-seven series where one team wins 100-99 in all 4 games and ends up winning the series 4-0, or a tennis match where one player wins all three sets in a tiebreak and ends up winning 3-0. It doesn't mean the match-up was a blowout or that there was a wide disparity between the competitors, just that one side was a hair better in each result.

All upset are we?  
twostepgiants : 11/16/2017 9:35 pm : link
RE: why are people so concerned  
Dan in the Springs : 11/16/2017 9:41 pm : link
In comment 13694476 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
with the difference in first place votes between Altuve and Judge? They were both great players, but Altuve had a more consistent season and put up significantly better numbers in high leverage situations. His win is completely defensible.

The 27-2 first place votes doesn't mean that writers thought Altuve was THAT much better than Judge this season-- only that the overwhelming majority of voters thought Altuve was at least a hair better than Judge and cast their vote for him. It's an NBA best-of-seven series where one team wins 100-99 in all 4 games and ends up winning the series 4-0, or a tennis match where one player wins all three sets in a tiebreak and ends up winning 3-0. It doesn't mean the match-up was a blowout or that there was a wide disparity between the competitors, just that one side was a hair better in each result.


That's how I see it too - well done with the explanation of the viewpoint.
kind of funny that the smallest guy in the league and the biggest  
Del Shofner : 11/16/2017 11:14 pm : link
finished 1-2 in MVP. That's almost certainly never happened before.
RE: I don't follow much baseball  
mfsd : 11/16/2017 11:53 pm : link
In comment 13694423 Big Rick in FL said:
Quote:
Don't ever post on baseball threads so take this with a grain of salt. My barbershop is about 3 minutes from the Yankees training facility on Himes. A lot of Yankees get their haircut there during Spring Training. I met Aaron Judge, Pineda, Betances, Severino & Torreyes there this past spring training. When I was in there today there was a guy in their who works for the Yankees. I don't know who he is, but he was probably in his mid 40s. A few of the barbers were talking with him about Otani. He said if Otani does decide to come to the MLB that the Yankees feel they have a 75-80% chance of Otani signing with them. He said there are only 3 teams really in the running for him. He said it's basically the Yankees, Dodgers & Rangers. He said the Rangers are the biggest longshot so it's basically down to the Yankees & Dodgers. He said he's very confident in the Yankees getting him because they can offer a little over 3 million and the Dodgers can only offer around 300k. He said the Yankees have Matsui & Tanaka in constant contact with Otani to recruit him for the Yankees. Like I said I don't really follow baseball, but I started reading about Otani after I left the barbershop and the dude sounds like an absolute stud. Seems like a guy who could win an MVP award at a young age.

I know this doesn't really mean much. So take it with a grain of salt, but I figured I'd pass it along to my fellow Giants fans.


Good stuff, thanks for sharing!
RE: why are people so concerned  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 11/17/2017 2:02 am : link
In comment 13694476 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
with the difference in first place votes between Altuve and Judge? They were both great players, but Altuve had a more consistent season and put up significantly better numbers in high leverage situations. His win is completely defensible.

The 27-2 first place votes doesn't mean that writers thought Altuve was THAT much better than Judge this season-- only that the overwhelming majority of voters thought Altuve was at least a hair better than Judge and cast their vote for him. It's an NBA best-of-seven series where one team wins 100-99 in all 4 games and ends up winning the series 4-0, or a tennis match where one player wins all three sets in a tiebreak and ends up winning 3-0. It doesn't mean the match-up was a blowout or that there was a wide disparity between the competitors, just that one side was a hair better in each result.


Judge had a season that was only matched by a handful of players safely within the 20 greatest to ever play the sport and led a team not remotely expected to make the postseason to the playoffs, but he got 2 measly first place votes because of "consistency". Had Judge been more "consistent", he would've put up Barry Bonds' 2001 steroids numbers. There are 3 websites measuring WAR (fangraphs, b-r.com, & espn) and 2 of them have Judge as the best player in the AL by a significant margin. But "consistency". It seems to me that people were searching for reasons not to give Judge the award as opposed to recognizing what he accomplished. That's how we end up hearing more about 6 weeks instead of those other 4 months.
Throw in BP.com and that's 3 out of 4 with Judge  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 11/17/2017 2:11 am : link
as the AL's best player in 2017. By their measurement, Mike Trout was the 2nd best player in the AL this season, ahead of Altuve.
As I said earlier, Altuve is a better and more consistent hitter  
Matt M. : 11/17/2017 5:48 am : link
But,he didn't have a better season, by any stretch.And, I fail to see how he was more valuable. He stole about 20 more bases, yet scored significantly less runs in a better lineup. He hit 40 points higher yet got on base significantly less. He drove in less runs. Judge had a much higher OPS and a higher OPS+. Plus, Judge's defense is not to be overlooked. He played RF at a near gold glove level. So, for him to receive 2 first place votes, I think, is a travesty.

This falls into one of those categories, I'd bet, where the writers justify it by saying he won the roomie of the year, so he'll have more shots at an MVP. I call bullshit. He had the best season and was more valuable to his team.
No problem with the voting.  
section125 : 11/17/2017 7:12 am : link
It actually validates most of the things said here about the 2 month slump hurting Judge's chances when Altuve was consistent the entire year. It actually makes sense for the spread to be that big as the writers clearly thought the same way.
RE: Throw in BP.com and that's 3 out of 4 with Judge  
PaulBlakeTSU : 11/17/2017 1:20 pm : link
In comment 13694570 shockeyisthebest8056 said:
Quote:
as the AL's best player in 2017. By their measurement, Mike Trout was the 2nd best player in the AL this season, ahead of Altuve.


ESPN's WAR is just Baseball-Reference's. 2 of the 3 major WAR calcualators ranked Judge above Altuve.
and what's with this notion  
PaulBlakeTSU : 11/17/2017 1:27 pm : link
that people were looking for reasons to not give Judge the award? He might have been the best individual story all season and he was certainly the most buzzworthy player in the sport.

For a sport that struggled with individual star power vis a vis the other major sports, no one broke through that more this season than Judge.

I see no evidence that there was any vendetta against Judge.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with thinking that Altuve was a more valuable player. Many people value consistency over the course of a long season as opposed to streaks of fire and ice. Plus, Altuve had better numbers in high-leverage situations which writers may value more than production in low-leverage situations.

If the roles were reversed, and we were die-hard Astros fans, do you really think that you would be calling the vote a mockery thinking that Altuve didn't deserve it?
Paul  
Greg from LI : 11/17/2017 1:49 pm : link
If that was their reasoning, then it's a silly one. You're taking two smaller sample sizes and giving them more weight than total production over the course of the entire season.

I won't go so far as to say Judge was robbed because it was a close competition, and Altuve is a great player who had a tremendous year as well. Judge was still more productive.

I also think it's unfortunately because this might well turn out to have been Judge's best shot at MVP, unless Mike Trout starts getting injured every year.
RE: and what's with this notion  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 11/17/2017 2:46 pm : link
In comment 13695011 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that people were looking for reasons to not give Judge the award?


I didn't mean there was a conspiracy. I meant they've chosen a reason to ignore the fact that by most measures Aaron Judge was the AL's best player this season. That doesn't necessarily mean he was the most valuable or should've won the award, but it bears more or at least as much mention as "consistency". If they want to hand out something else called "The Most Consistent Player Award", so be it.

When Aaron Judge gets 2 first place votes after the season he just had, that means a near unanimous amount of the voters chose to ignore who the best player in the league was. When that's happened in the past, it was almost always tied up with team wins (or at least that was the excuse). That's not the case here. I might be wrong and my memory might be fuzzy, but I've never heard "consistency" as a reason to give someone the MVP Award over another player who had the superior season.
Greg  
PaulBlakeTSU : 11/17/2017 2:52 pm : link
I don't think it's silly to consider metrics like win probability added, though. When it comes down to brass tacks, win probability added measures who most changes his team's win expectancy before and after he comes to the plate.

Since it's a cumulative metric, it blows my mind that Trout led all of baseball in so few games. But he was the best offensive player and played for a team that couldn't do anything without him, so every contribution he made had a gigantic impact on his team's ability to win a game.

RE: Greg  
Keith : 11/17/2017 3:02 pm : link
In comment 13695110 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
I don't think it's silly to consider metrics like win probability added, though. When it comes down to brass tacks, win probability added measures who most changes his team's win expectancy before and after he comes to the plate.

Since it's a cumulative metric, it blows my mind that Trout led all of baseball in so few games. But he was the best offensive player and played for a team that couldn't do anything without him, so every contribution he made had a gigantic impact on his team's ability to win a game.


Paul, I can appreciate your on this. You always use facts to back up opinions. I don't always agree with you, but I can always appreciate where you are coming from. That being said, can you explain this post to me. So Trout had a huge impact in wins, yet the Angels were .500 with Trout and .500 without him. Wouldn't that tell you that he really didn't have a massive impact? Are we trying to measure how much impact he has in losses? It's just not adding up to me.
I imagine that there were a few reasons beyond performance  
yatqb : 11/17/2017 3:15 pm : link
that contributed to the overwhelming win for Altuve.

1. His performance over the past four years without an MVP prior to this.
2. Judge getting ROY, and writers feeling that they also wanted to acknowledge Altuve since Judge had already been recognized.

Add these to Altuve's consistency, fielding and seeming leadership and writers voted the way they did.

Judge had a season for the ages, and deserved to win MVP as much as Altuve did (more based upon stats). But voters are swayed by a lot of factors when casting a ballot.
RE: I imagine that there were a few reasons beyond performance  
Matt M. : 11/17/2017 4:03 pm : link
In comment 13695133 yatqb said:
Quote:
that contributed to the overwhelming win for Altuve.

1. His performance over the past four years without an MVP prior to this.
2. Judge getting ROY, and writers feeling that they also wanted to acknowledge Altuve since Judge had already been recognized.

Add these to Altuve's consistency, fielding and seeming leadership and writers voted the way they did.

Judge had a season for the ages, and deserved to win MVP as much as Altuve did (more based upon stats). But voters are swayed by a lot of factors when casting a ballot.
yatqb - I don't doubt these factored in for some voters. However, the one I have a real problem with is #2. What if Judge never has another season like this? He shouldn't win MVP because he already won a different award?

For me, it's beyond just the numbers (even thought Judge has the edge in most categories). It's about the team. Houston had a better and more consistent lineup. Judge was the driver for the Yankees lineup. The lineup and team really fed off of him. To me, he was the more valuable player.
Oh, I argued for Judge to win too. But I can accept this result,  
yatqb : 11/17/2017 4:11 pm : link
even if, as you say, Judge never has such a season again. Altuve's been a star for years, and it's OK to me if the writers acknowledge that.
RE: and what's with this notion  
BigBlueShock : 11/17/2017 4:11 pm : link
In comment 13695011 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that people were looking for reasons to not give Judge the award? He might have been the best individual story all season and he was certainly the most buzzworthy player in the sport.

For a sport that struggled with individual star power vis a vis the other major sports, no one broke through that more this season than Judge.

I see no evidence that there was any vendetta against Judge.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with thinking that Altuve was a more valuable player. Many people value consistency over the course of a long season as opposed to streaks of fire and ice. Plus, Altuve had better numbers in high-leverage situations which writers may value more than production in low-leverage situations.

If the roles were reversed, and we were die-hard Astros fans, do you really think that you would be calling the vote a mockery thinking that Altuve didn't deserve it?

Your last sentence makes no sense and couldn’t be further from what people are saying. Nobody is calling the voting a mockery and absolutely nobody has said that Altuve doesn’t deserve it. It’s actually quite the opposite. Almost every single person on this thread followed up their disappointment at the results by saying that Altuve was deserving. The disappointment comes from only 2 out of 30 voters felt that Judge had the better year. To me it was basically a coin flip so I was expecting a much closer result. Doesn’t mean I think Altuve wasn’t deserving. As I already stated earlier in this thread.
RE: RE: and what's with this notion  
Matt M. : 11/17/2017 4:15 pm : link
In comment 13695192 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
In comment 13695011 PaulBlakeTSU said:


Quote:


that people were looking for reasons to not give Judge the award? He might have been the best individual story all season and he was certainly the most buzzworthy player in the sport.

For a sport that struggled with individual star power vis a vis the other major sports, no one broke through that more this season than Judge.

I see no evidence that there was any vendetta against Judge.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with thinking that Altuve was a more valuable player. Many people value consistency over the course of a long season as opposed to streaks of fire and ice. Plus, Altuve had better numbers in high-leverage situations which writers may value more than production in low-leverage situations.

If the roles were reversed, and we were die-hard Astros fans, do you really think that you would be calling the vote a mockery thinking that Altuve didn't deserve it?


Your last sentence makes no sense and couldn’t be further from what people are saying. Nobody is calling the voting a mockery and absolutely nobody has said that Altuve doesn’t deserve it. It’s actually quite the opposite. Almost every single person on this thread followed up their disappointment at the results by saying that Altuve was deserving. The disappointment comes from only 2 out of 30 voters felt that Judge had the better year. To me it was basically a coin flip so I was expecting a much closer result. Doesn’t mean I think Altuve wasn’t deserving. As I already stated earlier in this thread.
Well put. As I've already stated, I think altuve was more consistent and is the better hitter/player overall. But, Judge had better numbers in most categories and an historic season. so, only 2 first place votes just seems odd and like his season was easily cast aside.
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