This article by Michael Lombardi was written prior to the April 2017 draft. It's a great read, as he tries to determine why the most scouted, most scrutinized, most important position in professional sports is more often than not gotten wrong. He challenges some assumptions concerning what a team should prioritize when looking for a QB, and he reinforces others. Some of things that stuck out to me were:
- Bill Walsh believed you didn't evaluate what a QB can bring to your offense. You evaluated how a QB can excel in your offense. (This is assumes you have an identity right?)
- Parcells wanted a three-year starter. He wanted a senior in college, someone who graduated. He wanted a player who started at least 30 games, with 23 or more wins, and at least a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Finally, he wanted a 60 percent passer.
- Neither put a premium on arm strength and believed success and productivity override mechanics.
- Winning was more important than almost anything. A QB had to be a winner, preferably against good competition.
- Did he perform better when the game got faster?
- Is he the hardest working player on the team? Does he have a thick skin and a high football IQ?
- Do his teammates love him?
So BBI, especially Sy'56 and Colin of GBN, who is this man in the 2018 draft? As I read this, it steered me away from Rosen a bit and made me lean more towards Darnold and Mayfield, and made me take another look at Jackson. As I read this though, I keep coming back to Baker Mayfield, who I think is the player that most fits this checklist. Granted, the complaint that he has done it against primarily Big 12 defenses is fair. But consider this:
1. Questions about his arm strength and height, Lombardi says don't weigh those more than other criteria.
2. He is a proven winner
3. Plays big in big games
4. His teammates love him and he is a leader
5. I don't know, but any young man that has succeeded as a walk on to a big time college football program and played the most demanding position has to be pretty mentally tough and thick skinned.
I know there are strong opinions about QBs on this board, but in the context of this article, I'm not sure Rosen and Darnold can be #1 and #2. Maybe the #1 and #2 are Mayfield and Jackson? I continue to find my cards coming up Mayfield (of course that can change).
Seven Habits for Drafting a Highly Effective QB - (
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Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.
It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
Don't know, but if he was, it doesn't sound like he agreed with those choices if you read the article.
and this one does't even mention Manziel.
A former NFL general manager is who he is, and if you’re still doubting him, check out his track record. He’s worked for six different NFL teams in six different front offices. He’s held jobs ranging from scout to general manager. And here’s the list of quarterbacks those teams have drafted while Lombardi worked for them.
-Scott Barry
-Steve Slayden
-Clemente Gordon
-Keith McCant
-Eric Zeier
-Marquis Tuiasosopo
-Andrew Walter
-JaMarcus Russell
.....
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and let me know how he did...
Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.
It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
Thanks Emil. I don't follow Big 12 at all since I live in SEC country but I do know their defenses are a joke.
Good data point to remember (the Ohio st game). Does he have any other ones that are resume-worthy?
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with the Browns when they drafted Manziel and the Raiders when they drafted Jamarcus Russell?
As far as the Browns pretty sure he owner pushed and made the Manziel decision. And one can’t discount lessons learned while on the job.
It makes a lot of sense. The Giants for years wouldn’t consider a Drew Brees.
Also system scheme coaches are going to start to fail more and more. The smarter coaches learn to adapt to what their top end guys can do. McAdoo is a good example of the opposite. He wants Eli to be Aaron Rodgers. That’s like asking Eddie Gorge to be Barry Sanders.
Don't know, but if he was, it doesn't sound like he agreed with those choices if you read the article.
p.s.--Are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady loved by their teammates? Was Peyton?
'Feet' have become important.
The rest will take care of itself...
Mayfield just wins, and comes up big in big games. I'm interested in him and Darnold, and that's it.
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and let me know how he did...
Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.
It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
To be fair, that was week 2 and Ohio St. was lost on defense early in the season. They are extremely young and weren’t the defense we see now. Consider this, the week before that game in week 1, they gave up 410 passing yards to....Indiana.
Elway, Eli, his signing of Kerry Collins was brilliant and an underrated move bringing in a guy who was down and out and getting a Super Bowl appearance out of it.
His scouting notes on Eli in the GM book were basically a foreshadowing of exactly how Eli’s career has played out, complete with 2 Super Bowls.
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In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:
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and let me know how he did...
Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.
It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
To be fair, that was week 2 and Ohio St. was lost on defense early in the season. They are extremely young and weren’t the defense we see now. Consider this, the week before that game in week 1, they gave up 410 passing yards to....Indiana.
Can't throw it out completely though, right? What do you think of him if he was the pick?
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In comment 13695290 Emil said:
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In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:
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and let me know how he did...
Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.
It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
To be fair, that was week 2 and Ohio St. was lost on defense early in the season. They are extremely young and weren’t the defense we see now. Consider this, the week before that game in week 1, they gave up 410 passing yards to....Indiana.
Can't throw it out completely though, right? What do you think of him if he was the pick?
I like Mayfield but the concerns about the competition are very real. I also think there enough “questions” about him to prevent him from being in the discussion with a top 5 pick. The only way I can see them taking Mayfield is either in a trade down scenario or a trade up with their second pick to get back into the 1st round.
It’s still very early in the process though and that could change depending on his post season performance, combine, interviews etc.
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In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:
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and let me know how he did...
Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.
It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
Thanks Emil. I don't follow Big 12 at all since I live in SEC country but I do know their defenses are a joke.
Good data point to remember (the Ohio st game). Does he have any other ones that are resume-worthy?
TCU, a big 12 team, is ranked one spot better than OSU, and Mayfield lit them up too.
Bill Walsh was a great QB but he was so smart about QBs that he took the guy he rose to all that success with the 82nd pick in his draft. And sure BP wanted all those things but the guy he achieved his greatest success in the league was a 48% on a 3-8 FCS team in college. And you want to talk about coming up BIG in big games. How about Peyton Manning one of the top 2-3 QBs of our time who every year at UT came up super small in the Vols big game with Florida every year. And FTR the Vols finally won the national championship the year AFTER Peyton graduated. On the other hand, Ole Miss significantly overachieved during Eli's years there.
To my mind there are three things that an elite QB needs: quick release, accuracy and the ability to read the field and find the open receiver. But the fact is there are just so many other variables that go into making a QB from arm strength (and yes more is better but a cannon isn't necessarily a prerequisite); smarts, work ethic, mobility, leadership intangibles etc.
My own suspicion is that ultimately the most important variable - and this applies to very position on the field - is the ability 'to play the game at the speed the NFL game is played at.' And you can scout kids up the wazoo, but the fact is you will never know whether a kid can actually play the game at the speed the game is played until you actually get them on an NFL field with NFL players. And in many ways that is why the draft is such a crapshoot. And when I say play the game at the speed the game is played I mean the ability to absorb, process and react to the ton of information that comes at you in an NFL game.
When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.
Bill Walsh was a great QB but he was so smart about QBs that he took the guy he rose to all that success with the 82nd pick in his draft. And sure BP wanted all those things but the guy he achieved his greatest success in the league was a 48% on a 3-8 FCS team in college. And you want to talk about coming up BIG in big games. How about Peyton Manning one of the top 2-3 QBs of our time who every year at UT came up super small in the Vols big game with Florida every year. And FTR the Vols finally won the national championship the year AFTER Peyton graduated. On the other hand, Ole Miss significantly overachieved during Eli's years there.
To my mind there are three things that an elite QB needs: quick release, accuracy and the ability to read the field and find the open receiver. But the fact is there are just so many other variables that go into making a QB from arm strength (and yes more is better but a cannon isn't necessarily a prerequisite); smarts, work ethic, mobility, leadership intangibles etc.
My own suspicion is that ultimately the most important variable - and this applies to very position on the field - is the ability 'to play the game at the speed the NFL game is played at.' And you can scout kids up the wazoo, but the fact is you will never know whether a kid can actually play the game at the speed the game is played until you actually get them on an NFL field with NFL players. And in many ways that is why the draft is such a crapshoot. And when I say play the game at the speed the game is played I mean the ability to absorb, process and react to the ton of information that comes at you in an NFL game.
When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.
Ole Miss over achieving when Eli was there speaks to what Dave Bartoo was saying yesterday.
p.s.--Granted I tilted the percentages to the extreme, but even if we're talking about the difference between one having a 55% chance to succeed and the other having a 56% chance, every little percentage point counts when you spin that roulette wheel.
I talked about this one another earlier post. In 1979 the Giants wanted to take QB Jack Thompson but when he went to Cincinnati with the 3rd pick they went with Phil Simms. And they likely would not have won the two Super Bowls in the 1980s if New Orleans had taken LT with the 1st pick in the 1981 draft.
One of the recurring themes on this board appears to be that Jerry Reese should be fired because the Giants drafting has been terrible. Other than the fact that Reese doesn't actually make the draft picks - the Giants make them as an organization - there is no doubt that a couple of the drafts earlier in the decade weren't very productive; however, the Giants drafts in the past 5 years have actually been pretty good. Indeed, all ten of the players the Giants have taken in past five opening rounds are starters in the league and fully 8 of those were at least solid players with two - Odell and Landon Collins - entering the year as legit POY candidates, while ENgram and Tomlinson both made the league's all-rookie team this year. Of the other two the jury is still out on Flowers while we are holding are breath on Apple. The later 5 rounds haven't been as productive but overall the Giants have something like 18 guys drafted in the past 5 years on the roster contributing in at least some fashion which I suspect is above the league average.
However even with the recent successes luck played a huge role. In 2014, for example, the Giants wanted a WR and had them rated Watkins, Evans and Beckam. They took Beckam because he was the only one of three left. The following year they wanted to come out of the second round with either of safeties Demarious Randle, their first choice, or Landon Collins. When GB took Randle they moved up in the 2nd to get Collins and lucked out again. On the other hand they went into the opening round in 2015 wanting to get a LT prospect and had Scherff rated #1 at the position followed by Flowers and Strief. They really thought they'd get Scherff who has been a Pro Bowler and had to settle for Flowers when Wash took Scherff. Sometimes you win sometimes you don't quite.
RJ: By every account the Giants are going to take a QB with their #1 pick this year. They have alraedy had senior people scouting both Rosen and Mayfield which is really quite unusual this early in the process. If they pick 1 or 2 this year its almost a no-brainer they take Darnold or Rosen. It gets a little dicier if they pick 3rd. Do you trade up to get Darnold or Rosen (and I suspect both Cleve and SF at 1-2 will be willing to move) or is someone like Mayfield or Allen worth the 3rd pick. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that the Giants feel that Webb is necessarily the answer. In particular he was never even part of the competition for the back-up job this summer. However, if the Giants did go in a direction other than QB I would suspect it would be an impact defender like Chubb or Fitzpatrick rather than an OL. There is no question that the OL will be almost completely restructured this off-season but I would suspect that they will be more likely to do it primarily through free agency and I just don't see them using their highest pick in 35 years on an OG. But time will tell.
“Instead of evaluating what a young QB could bring to his team, Walsh evaluated how a quarterback could excel in his West Coast offense.” (Bill Walsh)
Also in the article, I really like Geno Auriemma's take toward discipline. It sounds like a winning way to handle stars and divas.
“Did you know he benches his best players (even his stars!) if he doesn’t like their body language?”
There are 6 players who were first or second all pro players last year. How many teams EVER have that.
A big problem is they have a $25 million dollar QB who no longer covers up team flaws. Your QB must win you some games,(think Eli 2011). He doesn't do that anymore (the guy who does happens to be out for the season)
There are 6 players who were first or second all pro players last year. How many teams EVER have that.
A big problem is they have a $25 million dollar QB who no longer covers up team flaws. Your QB must win you some games,(think Eli 2011). He doesn't do that anymore (the guy who does happens to be out for the season)
If Jerry Reese is fired, he would be hired in a minute.
When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.
Peanut gallery howling at the moon? Seriously? You really felt the need to tell fans on a Giants football forum that they have no clue? I don’t see anyone “howling at the moon”, stomping their feet or making any kind of declarative statements on who will be better. It’s all opinions and football talk, since ya know, the Giants suck. It’s an interesting debate and I’m not sure why you have to tell anyone how clueless they are.
-The Peanut Gallery
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When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.
Peanut gallery howling at the moon? Seriously? You really felt the need to tell fans on a Giants football forum that they have no clue? I don’t see anyone “howling at the moon”, stomping their feet or making any kind of declarative statements on who will be better. It’s all opinions and football talk, since ya know, the Giants suck. It’s an interesting debate and I’m not sure why you have to tell anyone how clueless they are.
-The Peanut Gallery
Further more, I'll put my track record up here on guys because it's pretty good.
I talked about this one another earlier post. In 1979 the Giants wanted to take QB Jack Thompson but when he went to Cincinnati with the 3rd pick they went with Phil Simms. And they likely would not have won the two Super Bowls in the 1980s if New Orleans had taken LT with the 1st pick in the 1981 draft.
One of the recurring themes on this board appears to be that Jerry Reese should be fired because the Giants drafting has been terrible. Other than the fact that Reese doesn't actually make the draft picks - the Giants make them as an organization - there is no doubt that a couple of the drafts earlier in the decade weren't very productive; however, the Giants drafts in the past 5 years have actually been pretty good. Indeed, all ten of the players the Giants have taken in past five opening rounds are starters in the league and fully 8 of those were at least solid players with two - Odell and Landon Collins - entering the year as legit POY candidates, while ENgram and Tomlinson both made the league's all-rookie team this year. Of the other two the jury is still out on Flowers while we are holding are breath on Apple. The later 5 rounds haven't been as productive but overall the Giants have something like 18 guys drafted in the past 5 years on the roster contributing in at least some fashion which I suspect is above the league average.
However even with the recent successes luck played a huge role. In 2014, for example, the Giants wanted a WR and had them rated Watkins, Evans and Beckam. They took Beckam because he was the only one of three left. The following year they wanted to come out of the second round with either of safeties Demarious Randle, their first choice, or Landon Collins. When GB took Randle they moved up in the 2nd to get Collins and lucked out again. On the other hand they went into the opening round in 2015 wanting to get a LT prospect and had Scherff rated #1 at the position followed by Flowers and Strief. They really thought they'd get Scherff who has been a Pro Bowler and had to settle for Flowers when Wash took Scherff. Sometimes you win sometimes you don't quite.
RJ: By every account the Giants are going to take a QB with their #1 pick this year. They have alraedy had senior people scouting both Rosen and Mayfield which is really quite unusual this early in the process. If they pick 1 or 2 this year its almost a no-brainer they take Darnold or Rosen. It gets a little dicier if they pick 3rd. Do you trade up to get Darnold or Rosen (and I suspect both Cleve and SF at 1-2 will be willing to move) or is someone like Mayfield or Allen worth the 3rd pick. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that the Giants feel that Webb is necessarily the answer. In particular he was never even part of the competition for the back-up job this summer. However, if the Giants did go in a direction other than QB I would suspect it would be an impact defender like Chubb or Fitzpatrick rather than an OL. There is no question that the OL will be almost completely restructured this off-season but I would suspect that they will be more likely to do it primarily through free agency and I just don't see them using their highest pick in 35 years on an OG. But time will tell.
Colin, I always appreciate your insight. Thank you
After watching Mayfield taunt Kansas today, I'd have to think that's going to knock him down the board a bit, for quite a few teams.
and this one does't even mention Manziel.
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....I know what you’re probably thinking: Who is this Lombardi guy, anyway? Why should I listen to him?
A former NFL general manager is who he is, and if you’re still doubting him, check out his track record. He’s worked for six different NFL teams in six different front offices. He’s held jobs ranging from scout to general manager. And here’s the list of quarterbacks those teams have drafted while Lombardi worked for them.
-Scott Barry
-Steve Slayden
-Clemente Gordon
-Keith McCant
-Eric Zeier
-Marquis Tuiasosopo
-Andrew Walter
-JaMarcus Russell
.....
That’s a damning list wow