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Lombardi - 7 Habits for Drafting a Highly Effective QB

Emil : 11/17/2017 5:49 pm
This article by Michael Lombardi was written prior to the April 2017 draft. It's a great read, as he tries to determine why the most scouted, most scrutinized, most important position in professional sports is more often than not gotten wrong. He challenges some assumptions concerning what a team should prioritize when looking for a QB, and he reinforces others. Some of things that stuck out to me were:

- Bill Walsh believed you didn't evaluate what a QB can bring to your offense. You evaluated how a QB can excel in your offense. (This is assumes you have an identity right?)

- Parcells wanted a three-year starter. He wanted a senior in college, someone who graduated. He wanted a player who started at least 30 games, with 23 or more wins, and at least a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Finally, he wanted a 60 percent passer.

- Neither put a premium on arm strength and believed success and productivity override mechanics.

- Winning was more important than almost anything. A QB had to be a winner, preferably against good competition.

- Did he perform better when the game got faster?

- Is he the hardest working player on the team? Does he have a thick skin and a high football IQ?

- Do his teammates love him?

So BBI, especially Sy'56 and Colin of GBN, who is this man in the 2018 draft? As I read this, it steered me away from Rosen a bit and made me lean more towards Darnold and Mayfield, and made me take another look at Jackson. As I read this though, I keep coming back to Baker Mayfield, who I think is the player that most fits this checklist. Granted, the complaint that he has done it against primarily Big 12 defenses is fair. But consider this:

1. Questions about his arm strength and height, Lombardi says don't weigh those more than other criteria.

2. He is a proven winner

3. Plays big in big games

4. His teammates love him and he is a leader

5. I don't know, but any young man that has succeeded as a walk on to a big time college football program and played the most demanding position has to be pretty mentally tough and thick skinned.

I know there are strong opinions about QBs on this board, but in the context of this article, I'm not sure Rosen and Darnold can be #1 and #2. Maybe the #1 and #2 are Mayfield and Jackson? I continue to find my cards coming up Mayfield (of course that can change).


Seven Habits for Drafting a Highly Effective QB - ( New Window )
To me that sounds most like Jackson or Mayfield  
Go Terps : 11/17/2017 5:52 pm : link
.
"Winning was more important than almost anything."  
Ira : 11/17/2017 5:57 pm : link
Supposing qb A is on a great team, which wins all or almost all of their games. Qb B is on a much weaker team which only wins half of their games.
I thought he spelled  
Doomster : 11/17/2017 5:57 pm : link
Hobbits wrong!
Wasn't this guy  
pjcas18 : 11/17/2017 6:00 pm : link
with the Browns when they drafted Manziel and the Raiders when they drafted Jamarcus Russell?

Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
Jimmy Googs : 11/17/2017 6:05 pm : link
and let me know how he did...
RE: Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
Emil : 11/17/2017 6:08 pm : link
In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
and let me know how he did...


Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.

It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.
RE: Wasn't this guy  
Emil : 11/17/2017 6:09 pm : link
In comment 13695281 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
with the Browns when they drafted Manziel and the Raiders when they drafted Jamarcus Russell?


Don't know, but if he was, it doesn't sound like he agreed with those choices if you read the article.
I read the article and there are a ton of  
pjcas18 : 11/17/2017 6:10 pm : link
rebuttals from people criticizing him.

and this one does't even mention Manziel.

Quote:
....I know what you’re probably thinking: Who is this Lombardi guy, anyway? Why should I listen to him?

A former NFL general manager is who he is, and if you’re still doubting him, check out his track record. He’s worked for six different NFL teams in six different front offices. He’s held jobs ranging from scout to general manager. And here’s the list of quarterbacks those teams have drafted while Lombardi worked for them.

-Scott Barry
-Steve Slayden
-Clemente Gordon
-Keith McCant
-Eric Zeier
-Marquis Tuiasosopo
-Andrew Walter
-JaMarcus Russell

.....

RE: RE: Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
Jimmy Googs : 11/17/2017 6:14 pm : link
In comment 13695290 Emil said:
Quote:
In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


and let me know how he did...



Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.

It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.


Thanks Emil. I don't follow Big 12 at all since I live in SEC country but I do know their defenses are a joke.

Good data point to remember (the Ohio st game). Does he have any other ones that are resume-worthy?
RE: RE: Wasn't this guy  
LauderdaleMatty : 11/17/2017 6:16 pm : link
In comment 13695292 Emil said:
Quote:
In comment 13695281 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


with the Browns when they drafted Manziel and the Raiders when they drafted Jamarcus Russell?

As far as the Browns pretty sure he owner pushed and made the Manziel decision. And one can’t discount lessons learned while on the job.

It makes a lot of sense. The Giants for years wouldn’t consider a Drew Brees.

Also system scheme coaches are going to start to fail more and more. The smarter coaches learn to adapt to what their top end guys can do. McAdoo is a good example of the opposite. He wants Eli to be Aaron Rodgers. That’s like asking Eddie Gorge to be Barry Sanders.




Don't know, but if he was, it doesn't sound like he agreed with those choices if you read the article.
George Young said...  
Milton : 11/17/2017 6:18 pm : link
...the QB needs to be the toughest guy on the team.
p.s.--Are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady loved by their teammates? Was Peyton?
Of course  
old man : 11/17/2017 6:21 pm : link
the game has changed more towards the Walsh game and also far away from the Parcells' run O.
'Feet' have become important.
Talent  
Archer : 11/17/2017 6:27 pm : link
Talent trumps all other criteria
Pick the guy that shows he can beat teams multiple ways  
Jimmy Googs : 11/17/2017 6:28 pm : link
In pocket, out of it, with his brains and his heart.

The rest will take care of itself...
Mayfield just beat  
lugnut : 11/17/2017 6:36 pm : link
#6 TCU and its supposedly very good D. Granted, two data points might not be enough, but they make enough room for optimism.

Mayfield just wins, and comes up big in big games. I'm interested in him and Darnold, and that's it.
RE: RE: Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
BigBlueShock : 11/17/2017 6:39 pm : link
In comment 13695290 Emil said:
Quote:
In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


and let me know how he did...



Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.

It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.

To be fair, that was week 2 and Ohio St. was lost on defense early in the season. They are extremely young and weren’t the defense we see now. Consider this, the week before that game in week 1, they gave up 410 passing yards to....Indiana.
By Lombardi's standard...  
Milton : 11/17/2017 6:49 pm : link
Tim Tebow should've been a Hall of Famer!
Not sure who will be pulling the trigger on this pick for NYG  
Chris684 : 11/17/2017 6:54 pm : link
But it’s my hope that whoever it is, does so after consulting with Ernie Accorsi.

Elway, Eli, his signing of Kerry Collins was brilliant and an underrated move bringing in a guy who was down and out and getting a Super Bowl appearance out of it.

His scouting notes on Eli in the GM book were basically a foreshadowing of exactly how Eli’s career has played out, complete with 2 Super Bowls.
RE: RE: RE: Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
Jimmy Googs : 11/17/2017 6:55 pm : link
In comment 13695314 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
In comment 13695290 Emil said:


Quote:


In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


and let me know how he did...



Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.

It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.


To be fair, that was week 2 and Ohio St. was lost on defense early in the season. They are extremely young and weren’t the defense we see now. Consider this, the week before that game in week 1, they gave up 410 passing yards to....Indiana.


Can't throw it out completely though, right? What do you think of him if he was the pick?
RE: RE: RE: RE: Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
BigBlueShock : 11/17/2017 7:00 pm : link
In comment 13695324 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 13695314 BigBlueShock said:


Quote:


In comment 13695290 Emil said:


Quote:


In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


and let me know how he did...



Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.

It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.


To be fair, that was week 2 and Ohio St. was lost on defense early in the season. They are extremely young and weren’t the defense we see now. Consider this, the week before that game in week 1, they gave up 410 passing yards to....Indiana.



Can't throw it out completely though, right? What do you think of him if he was the pick?

I like Mayfield but the concerns about the competition are very real. I also think there enough “questions” about him to prevent him from being in the discussion with a top 5 pick. The only way I can see them taking Mayfield is either in a trade down scenario or a trade up with their second pick to get back into the 1st round.

It’s still very early in the process though and that could change depending on his post season performance, combine, interviews etc.
RE: RE: RE: Go find the toughest defenses that Mayfield went up against  
Dave in Buffalo : 11/17/2017 7:13 pm : link
In comment 13695297 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 13695290 Emil said:


Quote:


In comment 13695286 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


and let me know how he did...



Ohio State 2017, 77% completion, 3 TDs, and over 300 yds. And they won.

It's only one game, but it is an important point. I'm not trying to campaign for Mayfield, but if Oklahoma makes it into the playoff we'll have our answer on whether Mayfield is that good, or if its the Big 12 defenses.



Thanks Emil. I don't follow Big 12 at all since I live in SEC country but I do know their defenses are a joke.

Good data point to remember (the Ohio st game). Does he have any other ones that are resume-worthy?


TCU, a big 12 team, is ranked one spot better than OSU, and Mayfield lit them up too.
I was listening to an interview on DC radio  
bradshaw44 : 11/17/2017 7:28 pm : link
Yesterday with I believe his name was Dave Bartoo. He says to look for non top ten recruiting programs and see which ones are over performing due to QB play. He said that’s where you will find your stars. Says he doesn’t like big program QBs becaus they have too much talent so majority of the time they make a qb look better. Pointed to Watson, Wilson and Ryan to name a few. He had much more to say but that was the gist. He says NO WAY to Jackson. And he had good detail to back it up. I recommend looking into his work if i got his name right. He was on the sports Junkies Thursday morning.
I like what I see in Darnold  
Jimmy Googs : 11/17/2017 7:34 pm : link
and I don't care that its early...
Winning is important, but....  
Milton : 11/17/2017 7:52 pm : link
"John Elway's last two years at Stanford. 4-7. 5-6. Nobody cares. Talent is king"--Colin Cowherd.
Drafting a QB  
Colin@gbn : 11/17/2017 9:50 pm : link
Fascinating question! And the answer I suspect is simply there is no simple answer. But that isn't going to stop people from trying.

Bill Walsh was a great QB but he was so smart about QBs that he took the guy he rose to all that success with the 82nd pick in his draft. And sure BP wanted all those things but the guy he achieved his greatest success in the league was a 48% on a 3-8 FCS team in college. And you want to talk about coming up BIG in big games. How about Peyton Manning one of the top 2-3 QBs of our time who every year at UT came up super small in the Vols big game with Florida every year. And FTR the Vols finally won the national championship the year AFTER Peyton graduated. On the other hand, Ole Miss significantly overachieved during Eli's years there.

To my mind there are three things that an elite QB needs: quick release, accuracy and the ability to read the field and find the open receiver. But the fact is there are just so many other variables that go into making a QB from arm strength (and yes more is better but a cannon isn't necessarily a prerequisite); smarts, work ethic, mobility, leadership intangibles etc.

My own suspicion is that ultimately the most important variable - and this applies to very position on the field - is the ability 'to play the game at the speed the NFL game is played at.' And you can scout kids up the wazoo, but the fact is you will never know whether a kid can actually play the game at the speed the game is played until you actually get them on an NFL field with NFL players. And in many ways that is why the draft is such a crapshoot. And when I say play the game at the speed the game is played I mean the ability to absorb, process and react to the ton of information that comes at you in an NFL game.

When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.
RE: Drafting a QB  
bradshaw44 : 11/17/2017 10:06 pm : link
In comment 13695428 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
Fascinating question! And the answer I suspect is simply there is no simple answer. But that isn't going to stop people from trying.

Bill Walsh was a great QB but he was so smart about QBs that he took the guy he rose to all that success with the 82nd pick in his draft. And sure BP wanted all those things but the guy he achieved his greatest success in the league was a 48% on a 3-8 FCS team in college. And you want to talk about coming up BIG in big games. How about Peyton Manning one of the top 2-3 QBs of our time who every year at UT came up super small in the Vols big game with Florida every year. And FTR the Vols finally won the national championship the year AFTER Peyton graduated. On the other hand, Ole Miss significantly overachieved during Eli's years there.

To my mind there are three things that an elite QB needs: quick release, accuracy and the ability to read the field and find the open receiver. But the fact is there are just so many other variables that go into making a QB from arm strength (and yes more is better but a cannon isn't necessarily a prerequisite); smarts, work ethic, mobility, leadership intangibles etc.

My own suspicion is that ultimately the most important variable - and this applies to very position on the field - is the ability 'to play the game at the speed the NFL game is played at.' And you can scout kids up the wazoo, but the fact is you will never know whether a kid can actually play the game at the speed the game is played until you actually get them on an NFL field with NFL players. And in many ways that is why the draft is such a crapshoot. And when I say play the game at the speed the game is played I mean the ability to absorb, process and react to the ton of information that comes at you in an NFL game.

When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.


Ole Miss over achieving when Eli was there speaks to what Dave Bartoo was saying yesterday.
RE: Drafting a QB  
Milton : 11/17/2017 10:08 pm : link
In comment 13695428 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.
I think this is partially true and partially false. It's not all just a matter of luck. The GM/scout that is smartest and does the most due diligence can reduce the luck factor even if he can't eliminate it altogether. The GM who picks the QB with a 40% chance to succeed can look like a genius compared to the one who picked the QB with the 80% chance if luck is on one guy's side and not the other's, but you would still want the GM who picks the QB with the greatest chance to succeed making the selection for you.
p.s.--Granted I tilted the percentages to the extreme, but even if we're talking about the difference between one having a 55% chance to succeed and the other having a 56% chance, every little percentage point counts when you spin that roulette wheel.
Darnold or Rosen  
Sean : 11/17/2017 10:20 pm : link
.
Hey Colin  
Rjanyg : 11/17/2017 10:32 pm : link
Di you thing NYG will go QB with their 1st pick? Does Davis Webb have enough ability for the NYG to trade out and pick up extra picks and draft Quenton Nelson? He seems like a can't miss prospect.
Late night draft talk  
Colin@gbn : 11/17/2017 11:36 pm : link
Milton: Certainly it is possible there is some variation by team but I suspect because literally every team invests hundreds of man hours and millions of dollars in their draft and player evaluations precisely to eliminate the vagaries of personal biases. And if there are differences they are likely small and would take years to manifest themselves. Trust me if you could be good or lucky on the draft be lucky!

I talked about this one another earlier post. In 1979 the Giants wanted to take QB Jack Thompson but when he went to Cincinnati with the 3rd pick they went with Phil Simms. And they likely would not have won the two Super Bowls in the 1980s if New Orleans had taken LT with the 1st pick in the 1981 draft.

One of the recurring themes on this board appears to be that Jerry Reese should be fired because the Giants drafting has been terrible. Other than the fact that Reese doesn't actually make the draft picks - the Giants make them as an organization - there is no doubt that a couple of the drafts earlier in the decade weren't very productive; however, the Giants drafts in the past 5 years have actually been pretty good. Indeed, all ten of the players the Giants have taken in past five opening rounds are starters in the league and fully 8 of those were at least solid players with two - Odell and Landon Collins - entering the year as legit POY candidates, while ENgram and Tomlinson both made the league's all-rookie team this year. Of the other two the jury is still out on Flowers while we are holding are breath on Apple. The later 5 rounds haven't been as productive but overall the Giants have something like 18 guys drafted in the past 5 years on the roster contributing in at least some fashion which I suspect is above the league average.

However even with the recent successes luck played a huge role. In 2014, for example, the Giants wanted a WR and had them rated Watkins, Evans and Beckam. They took Beckam because he was the only one of three left. The following year they wanted to come out of the second round with either of safeties Demarious Randle, their first choice, or Landon Collins. When GB took Randle they moved up in the 2nd to get Collins and lucked out again. On the other hand they went into the opening round in 2015 wanting to get a LT prospect and had Scherff rated #1 at the position followed by Flowers and Strief. They really thought they'd get Scherff who has been a Pro Bowler and had to settle for Flowers when Wash took Scherff. Sometimes you win sometimes you don't quite.

RJ: By every account the Giants are going to take a QB with their #1 pick this year. They have alraedy had senior people scouting both Rosen and Mayfield which is really quite unusual this early in the process. If they pick 1 or 2 this year its almost a no-brainer they take Darnold or Rosen. It gets a little dicier if they pick 3rd. Do you trade up to get Darnold or Rosen (and I suspect both Cleve and SF at 1-2 will be willing to move) or is someone like Mayfield or Allen worth the 3rd pick. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that the Giants feel that Webb is necessarily the answer. In particular he was never even part of the competition for the back-up job this summer. However, if the Giants did go in a direction other than QB I would suspect it would be an impact defender like Chubb or Fitzpatrick rather than an OL. There is no question that the OL will be almost completely restructured this off-season but I would suspect that they will be more likely to do it primarily through free agency and I just don't see them using their highest pick in 35 years on an OG. But time will tell.
It’s interesting,  
Gregorio : 11/18/2017 1:26 am : link
Bill Walsh had success by looking for a QB to fit his team’s scheme. Bill Belichick professes the polar opposite, to draft talented players, then adapt the team’s scheme to fit that player's strengths. Could there be an exception to this rule, for the QB position? It’s hard to argue with either coach’s success.

“Instead of evaluating what a young QB could bring to his team, Walsh evaluated how a quarterback could excel in his West Coast offense.” (Bill Walsh)

Also in the article, I really like Geno Auriemma's take toward discipline. It sounds like a winning way to handle stars and divas.

“Did you know he benches his best players (even his stars!) if he doesn’t like their body language?”
RE: Late night draft talk  
Milton : 11/18/2017 2:33 am : link
In comment 13695476 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
One of the recurring themes on this board appears to be that Jerry Reese should be fired because the Giants drafting has been terrible. Other than the fact that Reese doesn't actually make the draft picks - the Giants make them as an organization - there is no doubt that a couple of the drafts earlier in the decade weren't very productive; however, the Giants drafts in the past 5 years have actually been pretty good.
I agree with you 100% that Reese shoulders too much blame on BBI for what are organizational decisions. If he is guilty of anything it's that he doesn't have a forceful enough personality to be anything more than a consensus taker. There are actually some on BBI who accuse him of arrogance, but I wonder if he isn't arrogant enough for the position.
Quote:
However even with the recent successes luck played a huge role. In 2014, for example, the Giants wanted a WR and had them rated Watkins, Evans and Beckam. They took Beckam because he was the only one of three left.
As I remember it, they had them rated Watkins, Beckham, Evans--with Reese saying they had OBJ in their top ten, but not their top five. But along the same lines of it's better to be lucky than good: during his first stint running the Jags, Coughlin tried to trade up for Curtis Enis but had to settle for Fred Taylor; and tried to trade up for Shaun Williams but had to settle for Donovan Darius.
Parcels would have loved him some Bama QBs  
Jesse B : 11/18/2017 7:27 am : link
And they are awful. I think you draft talent/dedication and hope for the best. But you have to have a good plan in place.


And to Colin's point  
Jesse B : 11/18/2017 7:31 am : link
People kill Reese on BBI but don't consider the alternative. It can actually get worse from a talent perspective. Ask buffalo, Cleveland and 10 other teams in perpetual sucksville


There are 6 players who were first or second all pro players last year. How many teams EVER have that.

A big problem is they have a $25 million dollar QB who no longer covers up team flaws. Your QB must win you some games,(think Eli 2011). He doesn't do that anymore (the guy who does happens to be out for the season)
Where is accuracy in all of this?  
Jim in Forest Hills : 11/18/2017 7:59 am : link
Intangibles aside, the top QBs are all very accurate. Brady, Rodgers, Brees incredibly so.
RE: And to Colin's point  
Sean : 11/18/2017 8:06 am : link
In comment 13695517 Jesse B said:
Quote:
People kill Reese on BBI but don't consider the alternative. It can actually get worse from a talent perspective. Ask buffalo, Cleveland and 10 other teams in perpetual sucksville


There are 6 players who were first or second all pro players last year. How many teams EVER have that.

A big problem is they have a $25 million dollar QB who no longer covers up team flaws. Your QB must win you some games,(think Eli 2011). He doesn't do that anymore (the guy who does happens to be out for the season)


If Jerry Reese is fired, he would be hired in a minute.
RE: Drafting a QB  
BigBlueShock : 11/18/2017 8:45 am : link
In comment 13695428 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:


When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.

Peanut gallery howling at the moon? Seriously? You really felt the need to tell fans on a Giants football forum that they have no clue? I don’t see anyone “howling at the moon”, stomping their feet or making any kind of declarative statements on who will be better. It’s all opinions and football talk, since ya know, the Giants suck. It’s an interesting debate and I’m not sure why you have to tell anyone how clueless they are.

-The Peanut Gallery
RE: RE: Drafting a QB  
allstarjim : 11/18/2017 9:17 am : link
In comment 13695549 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
In comment 13695428 Colin@gbn said:


Quote:




When it comes to this year's draft, as I noted on another post a couple of days ago, there are 5-6 first round quality QBs in the 2018 draft class and the odds are that 2 will be really good players, two will be JAGs and 2 will bust, but there isn't anyone on this earth, not Bill Walsh, not Mel Kiper, not Mike Mayock, not Bill Belichek, not me, not Dave Sy and certainly no one in the BBI peanut gallery howling at the moon who can predict with any accuracy significantly greater than that of a monkey throwing darts at a dart board which two of the 6 are going to be great, which 2 will be journeyman and which two will be busts.


Peanut gallery howling at the moon? Seriously? You really felt the need to tell fans on a Giants football forum that they have no clue? I don’t see anyone “howling at the moon”, stomping their feet or making any kind of declarative statements on who will be better. It’s all opinions and football talk, since ya know, the Giants suck. It’s an interesting debate and I’m not sure why you have to tell anyone how clueless they are.

-The Peanut Gallery


Further more, I'll put my track record up here on guys because it's pretty good.
Look  
Toth029 : 11/18/2017 10:54 am : link
At the draft choices from the classes in 2010 until now. How many starters? How many key contributors? That's the problem. They've been really bad at picking LB and OL and it's haunted them, only getting to the playoffs twice in seven years.
RE: Late night draft talk  
Emil : 11/18/2017 9:02 pm : link
In comment 13695476 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
Milton: Certainly it is possible there is some variation by team but I suspect because literally every team invests hundreds of man hours and millions of dollars in their draft and player evaluations precisely to eliminate the vagaries of personal biases. And if there are differences they are likely small and would take years to manifest themselves. Trust me if you could be good or lucky on the draft be lucky!

I talked about this one another earlier post. In 1979 the Giants wanted to take QB Jack Thompson but when he went to Cincinnati with the 3rd pick they went with Phil Simms. And they likely would not have won the two Super Bowls in the 1980s if New Orleans had taken LT with the 1st pick in the 1981 draft.

One of the recurring themes on this board appears to be that Jerry Reese should be fired because the Giants drafting has been terrible. Other than the fact that Reese doesn't actually make the draft picks - the Giants make them as an organization - there is no doubt that a couple of the drafts earlier in the decade weren't very productive; however, the Giants drafts in the past 5 years have actually been pretty good. Indeed, all ten of the players the Giants have taken in past five opening rounds are starters in the league and fully 8 of those were at least solid players with two - Odell and Landon Collins - entering the year as legit POY candidates, while ENgram and Tomlinson both made the league's all-rookie team this year. Of the other two the jury is still out on Flowers while we are holding are breath on Apple. The later 5 rounds haven't been as productive but overall the Giants have something like 18 guys drafted in the past 5 years on the roster contributing in at least some fashion which I suspect is above the league average.

However even with the recent successes luck played a huge role. In 2014, for example, the Giants wanted a WR and had them rated Watkins, Evans and Beckam. They took Beckam because he was the only one of three left. The following year they wanted to come out of the second round with either of safeties Demarious Randle, their first choice, or Landon Collins. When GB took Randle they moved up in the 2nd to get Collins and lucked out again. On the other hand they went into the opening round in 2015 wanting to get a LT prospect and had Scherff rated #1 at the position followed by Flowers and Strief. They really thought they'd get Scherff who has been a Pro Bowler and had to settle for Flowers when Wash took Scherff. Sometimes you win sometimes you don't quite.

RJ: By every account the Giants are going to take a QB with their #1 pick this year. They have alraedy had senior people scouting both Rosen and Mayfield which is really quite unusual this early in the process. If they pick 1 or 2 this year its almost a no-brainer they take Darnold or Rosen. It gets a little dicier if they pick 3rd. Do you trade up to get Darnold or Rosen (and I suspect both Cleve and SF at 1-2 will be willing to move) or is someone like Mayfield or Allen worth the 3rd pick. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that the Giants feel that Webb is necessarily the answer. In particular he was never even part of the competition for the back-up job this summer. However, if the Giants did go in a direction other than QB I would suspect it would be an impact defender like Chubb or Fitzpatrick rather than an OL. There is no question that the OL will be almost completely restructured this off-season but I would suspect that they will be more likely to do it primarily through free agency and I just don't see them using their highest pick in 35 years on an OG. But time will tell.


Colin, I always appreciate your insight. Thank you

After watching Mayfield taunt Kansas today, I'd have to think that's going to knock him down the board a bit, for quite a few teams.
RE: I read the article and there are a ton of  
capone : 11/18/2017 10:22 pm : link
In comment 13695294 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
rebuttals from people criticizing him.

and this one does't even mention Manziel.



Quote:


....I know what you’re probably thinking: Who is this Lombardi guy, anyway? Why should I listen to him?

A former NFL general manager is who he is, and if you’re still doubting him, check out his track record. He’s worked for six different NFL teams in six different front offices. He’s held jobs ranging from scout to general manager. And here’s the list of quarterbacks those teams have drafted while Lombardi worked for them.

-Scott Barry
-Steve Slayden
-Clemente Gordon
-Keith McCant
-Eric Zeier
-Marquis Tuiasosopo
-Andrew Walter
-JaMarcus Russell

.....






That’s a damning list wow
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