Thanks to shyster for seeing my error on the 3-13 possibilities.
Total wins by non-common opps in parentheses, including future games with automatic pickups. To pick ahead you want to get a smaller total (i.e. pickups are bad). Possible pickups from future games are in brackets.
We can project the tiebreaks with CHI and TB to go in favor of the Giants. Tiebreak is leaning in favor of DEN and IND vs NYG. Other tiebreaks (CLE, SF, HOU) are very close.
Note: I do not use a "if the season ended today" approach but rather include future automatic increases to SOS based on scheduling.
1. CLE 0-13 (NYG 105 CLE 106) [NYG can get 18 more, CLE can get 22 more]
2. NYG 2-11
3. IND 3-10 (IND 80 NYG 83) [IND can get 17 more, NYG can get 21 more]
4. SF 3-10 (NYG 65 SF 66) [NYG can get 14 more, SF can get 15 more]
5. DEN 4-9 (DEN 64 NYG 66) [DEN can get 11 more, NYG can get 15 more]
6. HOU 4-9 (NYG 80 HOU 80) [NYG can get 21 more, HOU can get 20 more]
7. CHI 4-9 (NYG 93 CHI 101) [NYG can get 14 more, CHI can get 12 more]
8. TB 4-9 (NYG 100 TB 113) [NYG can get 17 more, TB can get 15 more]
HOU pick traded to CLE.
Giants finish 2-14: Best pick #1, worst #2
Giants finish 3-13: Best pick #1 (#1 unlikely), worst #4
Giants finish 4-12: Best pick #2, worst #8 (#7 or #8 very unlikely)
BAL-PIT result does not change the numbers above.
A NE win over MIA would give HOU a pickup.
Those games are:
DEN at IND (week 15)
CLE at CHI (week 16)
HOU at IND (week 17)
There are 4 teams with 5 wins (CIN, NYJ, MIA, WAS). None of these teams are playing each other.
The Giants cannot pick behind WAS - there are only 2 non-common opps
WAS: MIN, NO = 10 + 9 = 19 (6 possible pickups)
NYG: DET, TB = 7 + 4 = 11 (6 possible pickups)
So NYG has clinched better SOS. (Note that the Giants can finish 3rd, ahead of WAS, but they cannot draft behind WAS.
The tiebreakers for standings and draft order are different)
That leaves the question of whether the Giants have already clinched a lower SOS than NYJ, MIA or CIN. This would take some work on my part but I think it is safe to assume that hasn't happened yet, and so the Giants could pick no lower than 11th. This would change to 10th if MIA won tonight.
This NYG team cannot stop the run. Philly will try and pound us on the ground. They are #1 vs the run and get after the QB from the ends and DT’s. The NYG, as of late with Eli are good for a max of 10 points a game. Does this sound like a favorable matchup?
Notice I didn’t even mention anything about their potential passing offense deficiencies. It’s also not like Nick Foles hasn’t beaten better NYG teams in the past.
We have no shot.
Assuming the Browns have all but clinched the #1 overall pick, I don't think it will matter, as long as the Colts can win one more.
Some interesting possibilities ...especially if Cleveland also wants the #2 and they are at #6 also and a bank of picks..or Denver maybe at 3 or 4 and likely a top 10 finish again next year for their first rd.
Given we are in pretty solid at the #2... just rolling out those scenarios.