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Monte Carlo Based Prediction Of Likelihood Of Draft Position

Trainmaster : 12/13/2017 1:30 am
Several years ago, a friend of mine wrote a program to prediction percentages / likelihood of a given team making the playoffs (many other sites etc. have this). He recently modified his program keep track of simulation results (over 100,000, based on Sagarin's ratings) for likelihood of various teams getting a particular draft position.

The formatting isn't coming out, so I'll only show a small portion of the table that hopefully is still readable and shows the key percentages as far as the Giants are concerned:

............ 1 ...... 2 ...... 3 ...... 4 ...... 5 ...... 6
Clev 96.0% 3.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYG 3.3% 54.4% 24.9% 10.7% 4.4% 1.9%
Ind 0.6% 26.5% 28.9% 18.1% 11.8% 5.8%
SF 0.2% 10.2% 25.8% 28.7% 15.6% 9.5%
Den 0.0% 4.0% 10.2% 15.1% 17.6% 13.5%
Hou 0.0% 1.0% 5.1% 10.5% 16.1% 16.2%

So in a little more than half the simulations of the reminding 3 games, the Giants get the 2nd overall pick and in ~3/4 of the simulations, they get a top 3 pick.
Thanks Trainmaster...  
M.S. : 12/13/2017 6:49 am : link
...interesting data!


Awesome!  
Big Rick in FL : 12/13/2017 6:53 am : link
Can't see us winning another game. So the 2nd pick is looking damn good. Especially if Darnold & Rosen enter the draft.
The NY Times Monte Carlo simulator  
ray in arlington : 12/13/2017 7:07 am : link
is giving the Giants ~70% chance of #2 pick consistently, you may want to check whether your friend is using draft order tiebreakers (i.e. strength of schedule) instead of tiebreakers used in standings/playoffs. NYTimes is using Sagarin ratings but maybe handling the win probabilities differently.
The Cardinals & Redskins games..  
Sean : 12/13/2017 7:18 am : link
Could very well be wins.
RE: The Cardinals & Redskins games..  
The_Boss : 12/13/2017 8:09 am : link
In comment 13738599 Sean said:
Quote:
Could very well be wins.


Mentioned that yesterday. The Redskin game in particular.
Hate to be a downer....  
BamaBlue : 12/13/2017 8:15 am : link
the 2017 Giants have shown the ability to screw-up just about everything. In keeping with this trend, they'll defy the odds and screw-up draft position in the most painful way.
Isn't it kind of obvious...  
DonQuixote : 12/13/2017 8:42 am : link
...the Browns are pretty much a lock for #1 overall, the Giants are the "favorites" for #2, but could be leapfrogged by the 3-10 teams. What are we learning here that is not glaringly obvious from the standings?

Think we run the table  
Giant John : 12/13/2017 9:35 am : link
We have no more wins this year.
I like predicting by percentages because you can never be wrong.  
Ivan15 : 12/13/2017 9:51 am : link
.
We might get 1 more although I doubt it...  
Chris684 : 12/13/2017 10:06 am : link
This offense really can't score.

Out of the Colts last 3 games, they have the Broncos and Texans @ home. They should be able to at least split that and get to 4 wins, they could possibly win both.

I think SF gets at least one more, plus we lost to them head to head.

No one else has less than 4.
Unfortunately the Skins game will be a win  
DCOrange : 12/13/2017 10:06 am : link
The Skins are quitting and becoming more of a train wreck than the Giants at this point. The road team would lose this game either way when all they want to do is get home.
RE: We might get 1 more although I doubt it...  
ray in arlington : 12/13/2017 11:27 am : link
In comment 13738794 Chris684 said:
Quote:
This offense really can't score.

I think SF gets at least one more, plus we lost to them head to head.


The head-to-head result is not the tiebreaker for draft order.
Oh thanks Ray...  
Chris684 : 12/13/2017 11:30 am : link
I did not know that.

Kind of stupid that's not but thanks for the info!
RE: Unfortunately the Skins game will be a win  
ray in arlington : 12/13/2017 11:50 am : link
In comment 13738798 DCOrange said:
Quote:
The Skins are quitting and becoming more of a train wreck than the Giants at this point. The road team would lose this game either way when all they want to do is get home.


maybe a win in that game will be harmless. It might require both 3-10 games to win another game, since IND has a fairly long tiebreak advantage and the SF tiebreak is very close.
i mean IND  
ray in arlington : 12/13/2017 11:51 am : link
has a fairly strong tiebreak advantage.
It's still possible the Browns could win two out of three  
Milton : 12/13/2017 11:54 am : link
Baltimore, Chicago, and they close against a Pittsburgh team that could be resting starters if their playoff position is locked in.
It will all come down to the Arizona game...  
kinard : 12/13/2017 12:36 pm : link
Figure that the Giants will lose on Sunday to the Eagles and beat the Redskins on New Years Eve.

Our draft positions hinges on that Xmas Eve game in Arizona.
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