Several years ago, a friend of mine wrote a program to prediction percentages / likelihood of a given team making the playoffs (many other sites etc. have this). He recently modified his program keep track of simulation results (over 100,000, based on Sagarin's ratings) for likelihood of various teams getting a particular draft position.
The formatting isn't coming out, so I'll only show a small portion of the table that hopefully is still readable and shows the key percentages as far as the Giants are concerned:
............ 1 ...... 2 ...... 3 ...... 4 ...... 5 ...... 6
Clev 96.0% 3.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYG 3.3% 54.4% 24.9% 10.7% 4.4% 1.9%
Ind 0.6% 26.5% 28.9% 18.1% 11.8% 5.8%
SF 0.2% 10.2% 25.8% 28.7% 15.6% 9.5%
Den 0.0% 4.0% 10.2% 15.1% 17.6% 13.5%
Hou 0.0% 1.0% 5.1% 10.5% 16.1% 16.2%
So in a little more than half the simulations of the reminding 3 games, the Giants get the 2nd overall pick and in ~3/4 of the simulations, they get a top 3 pick.
Mentioned that yesterday. The Redskin game in particular.
Out of the Colts last 3 games, they have the Broncos and Texans @ home. They should be able to at least split that and get to 4 wins, they could possibly win both.
I think SF gets at least one more, plus we lost to them head to head.
No one else has less than 4.
I think SF gets at least one more, plus we lost to them head to head.
The head-to-head result is not the tiebreaker for draft order.
Kind of stupid that's not but thanks for the info!
maybe a win in that game will be harmless. It might require both 3-10 games to win another game, since IND has a fairly long tiebreak advantage and the SF tiebreak is very close.
Our draft positions hinges on that Xmas Eve game in Arizona.