NFT: Yanks talk 12-15 Yanks -Pirates talking Cole

In comment 13742148 arniefez said:

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spring training it will make up for the 10 years from 05-15 when he was pretty terrible at his job. Getting Castro & Headley off the team might have done it already. Whoever replaces them will be major defensive upgrades and both guys were league average hitters at best. I don't think I've ever seen an ownership group give a guy almost two decades to get it right. But the last few years Cashman has done a fantastic job. I will say I agree with many others here that he might be on the verge of screwing it up right when it's ready to be everything us fans ever could want though.

Can I ask you, in your opinion, what he needs to do to get it right and who are some GMs you think do better job. If championships are the benchmark of success I�d say he�s done remarkably well.

I'm a little less suspicious of Fulmer after realizing how stacked the Tigers are with right-handed pitching prospects. So here we go...

Frazier, Sheffield, Estrada, and Acevedo for Fulmer. I hate giving up Sheffield, but I can see the Tigers insisting on him (because he's a lefty) over Adams, especially after the Yankees say Torres and Florial are off limits.

Andujar, Adams, McKinney, German for Machado. The O's hate to do it, but it's by far the best offer they receive for what cold be just a one-year rental. And at a projected salary of $17M+, it just makes sense for them to trade him now instead of later or not at all. From the Yankees perspective, they are giving up a lot for a guy they could target in next year's free agency, but I still think it's a wise move (assuming they are relatively confident they can sign him to an extension).

p.s.--The Fulmer trade allows them to remain under the luxury tax threshold despite Machado's projected salary. If they were to trade for Cole or sign CC, I don't think it would be possible to add Machado without winding up in penalty territory.

Seems like the best option being that he has excellent command of four pitches, but the money will most likely never work to get in at 197 million or under. Cole may simply be a case of a pitcher needing to be in a more challenging environment to bring out his very best. Regardless I definitely prefer to give these young arms a chance finally!

In comment 13742306 Milton said:

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I'm a little less suspicious of Fulmer after realizing how stacked the Tigers are with right-handed pitching prospects. So here we go... Frazier, Sheffield, Estrada, and Acevedo for Fulmer. I hate giving up Sheffield, but I can see the Tigers insisting on him (because he's a lefty) over Adams, especially after the Yankees say Torres and Florial are off limits. Andujar, Adams, McKinney, German for Machado. The O's hate to do it, but it's by far the best offer they receive for what cold be just a one-year rental. And at a projected salary of $17M+, it just makes sense for them to trade him now instead of later or not at all. From the Yankees perspective, they are giving up a lot for a guy they could target in next year's free agency, but I still think it's a wise move (assuming they are relatively confident they can sign him to an extension). p.s.--The Fulmer trade allows them to remain under the luxury tax threshold despite Machado's projected salary. If they were to trade for Cole or sign CC, I don't think it would be possible to add Machado without winding up in penalty territory.

Why are you coming up with variations of trading away a huge chunk of our farm every day?

The only guy worth spending prospects on is Fulmer imo.

Cole is mediocre and Machado is a pending FA. We don't need to break the bank to land those guys.

In comment 13742306 Milton said:

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I'm a little less suspicious of Fulmer after realizing how stacked the Tigers are with right-handed pitching prospects. So here we go... Frazier, Sheffield, Estrada, and Acevedo for Fulmer. I hate giving up Sheffield, but I can see the Tigers insisting on him (because he's a lefty) over Adams, especially after the Yankees say Torres and Florial are off limits. Andujar, Adams, McKinney, German for Machado. The O's hate to do it, but it's by far the best offer they receive for what cold be just a one-year rental. And at a projected salary of $17M+, it just makes sense for them to trade him now instead of later or not at all. From the Yankees perspective, they are giving up a lot for a guy they could target in next year's free agency, but I still think it's a wise move (assuming they are relatively confident they can sign him to an extension). p.s.--The Fulmer trade allows them to remain under the luxury tax threshold despite Machado's projected salary. If they were to trade for Cole or sign CC, I don't think it would be possible to add Machado without winding up in penalty territory.

Again, you are REALLY overthinking this. In both trades, you are proposing DRAMATIC overpays. No need to go there.

Cashman has demonstrated time and again that he is not in the business of overpaying in trades. If he can't get Fulmer for Frazier, Acevedo and a B prospect, the trade won't happen. Remember, Fulmer is coming off a season with an arm injury. No matter how the Tigers spin the injury, they are NOT going to get an overwhelming deal.

As for Machado, the O's are in a bad spot- since teams no longer get a 1st round pick for losing major FA, they are not going to pay through the nose for prospects without getting receiving a window to negotiate an extension. Except that the O's will not grant that window. No window, no fair value. No fair value, no trade.

The only way the O's can salvage the situation at this point is to get a team that has some depth in their system to give up 2-3 good prospects- with the understanding that the team is going to turn around and trade Machado to a 3rd team.

Otherwise, the O's are stuck in a corner of their own making.

Why bail out a division rival when you do not need to.

Also, have you paid attention to the trades this winter- NO ONE is getting FOUR A-grade prospects for a single player. The Marlins got 4 players for Ozuna- one A grade prospect, 2 B/B- level guys and a lottery ticket D level prospect.

In comment 13742281 old man said:

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In comment 13742225 xman said: Quote: lets see what the young pitchers can do along with Frazier. If they need to they can make a move in August or an arm. +1. You have GS for 3 years...and why would he opt out? You have kids for the IF. OF. P. ready to duke it out to be starting players....what's the hurry? Every kid they throw in for whatever reason pitches a good game. Some kid will step up mid July and be a starter. Eventually some young people will win their spot and if its still a battle some major leaguer can be had for one of the remaining bunch of prospects. After Brett Didi GS. and some P..12+ players will be 26 or less. Boone could be the only fail..but if the bench coach carries him the way Luvollo carried Farrell then they'll be all set.

Might be just nitpicking here, but you really can't use "GS" for Giancarlo Stanton when the team also has Gary Sanchez.

As I see it, with the exception of Sheffield, they are all expendable prospects when you consider the additions of Stanton, Machado, and Fulmer to the youngsters already aboard. It may seem like an overpay compared to other deals, but each deal comes with its own set of unique circumstances. Value is in the eyes of the beholder.

The Yankees farm system takes a hit, but use them or lose them I say. There isn't room for all of them on the big league club. Are you going to cry over Andujar and Frazier when you added Machado and Stanton? Are you going to cry over Adams and Sheffield, when you now have a starting rotation that features Severino (24), Tanaka (29), Fulmer (24), Gray (27), and Montgomery (25). Alright, so a few tears over Sheffield, because he's a lefty.

And the beauty part is: the farm system comes out of it battered, but still strong. In my hypothetical, the system is left with Torres, Florial, Abreu, Medina, and a lot more--most of them pitchers. As for Machado's future with the team, I'm gonna assume that they wouldn't make the deal unless they've already had conversations with his agent that give them confidence an extension can still be worked out.

And when the smoke clears, the Yankees have a line up that looks something like this...
Gardner
Judge
Sanchez
Bird
Stanton
Machado
Bird
Hicks
Torres

I'd hold off on that deal. Its not easy to build a quality minor league talent pool. Don't piss it away

I hate to see our talent traded for arms that don't come close to being aces. I wonder if our minor league pitchers have more ready potential .

In comment 13742372 Milton said:

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As I see it, with the exception of Sheffield, they are all expendable prospects when you consider the additions of Stanton, Machado, and Fulmer to the youngsters already aboard. It may seem like an overpay compared to other deals, but each deal comes with its own set of unique circumstances. Value is in the eyes of the beholder. The Yankees farm system takes a hit, but use them or lose them I say. There isn't room for all of them on the big league club. Are you going to cry over Andujar and Frazier when you added Machado and Stanton? Are you going to cry over Adams and Sheffield, when you now have a starting rotation that features Severino (24), Tanaka (29), Fulmer (24), Gray (27), and Montgomery (25). Alright, so a few tears over Sheffield, because he's a lefty. And the beauty part is: the farm system comes out of it battered, but still strong. In my hypothetical, the system is left with Torres, Florial, Abreu, Medina, and a lot more--most of them pitchers. As for Machado's future with the team, I'm gonna assume that they wouldn't make the deal unless they've already had conversations with his agent that give them confidence an extension can still be worked out. And when the smoke clears, the Yankees have a line up that looks something like this... Gardner Judge Sanchez Bird Stanton Machado Bird Hicks Torres

Milton,

You're missing the point. It's still never prudent to overpay, even if the assets are overkill on your own end anyway. You never know what needs may arise - for example, what if (knock on wood, God forbid), Sanchez goes down with a season-ending injury? Do you think the Yanks can continue to push on as a contender with Romine as the primary backstop? Personally, I don't. So I'd prefer to have more bullets in the chamber to go get reinforcements if they are needed. Overpaying for guys just because you have the talent capital that allows you to do so still doesn't make it a sound maneuver.

We don't have an obligation to do right by the other teams; they have an obligation to get whatever value they'd feel is appropriate. And frankly, I doubt they'd even ask for as much as you're willing to give.

In comment 13742403 Gatorade Dunk said:

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We don't have an obligation to do right by the other teams; they have an obligation to get whatever value they'd feel is appropriate. And frankly, I doubt they'd even ask for as much as you're willing to give.

You may be right. But that's why the Yankees are going to wind up with Gerrit Cole and will have to wait another year on Machado--if he doesn't wind up agreeing to an extension with whichever team pulls off the trade.

Unless it is for Fulmer, otherwise a huge pass

is that he desperately needs at bats. From all reports, and our own eyes, he has truly world-class bat speed. However, his weight shift has been truly awkward--he is way too upright. I think that's fixable, but where does he get the ab's to achieve the fix with so many outfielders floating around? He certainly isn't going to be happy working in this back in AAA. Maybe there is enough time in ST, but that's not a given with a kid that young.

He would probably come along much more quickly on a team that craves outfielders. On the other hand, get his swing completely ironed out, and his value either as a Yankee or in trade would explode.

In comment 13742372 Milton said:

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And when the smoke clears, the Yankees have a line up that looks something like this... Gardner Judge Sanchez Bird Stanton Machado Bird Hicks Torres

Wow I am impressed.

In which slot does Bird bat righty???

that you can kill two stones with one Bird?

http://amp.si.com/mlb/2017/12/15/dustin-fowler-injury-white-sox-lawsuit

actual link now
Click - ( New Window )

In comment 13742538 manh george said:

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that you can kill two stones with one Bird?

2 Birds in hand is worth... 4? in the bush.

In comment 13742498 Jay in Toronto said:

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In comment 13742372 Milton said: And when the smoke clears, the Yankees have a line up that looks something like this... Gardner Judge Sanchez Bird Stanton Machado Bird Hicks Torres Wow I am impressed. In which slot does Bird bat righty???

???
You lost me.

After getting a bird's eye view of my comment, I realized my error! One of those birds was supposed to be a Didi bird (cousin to the Dodo bird)!
p.s.--And I forget which.

Last year the Yankees gave up Mateo, Fowler, and Kaprielian (all three were on "MLB Top 100 Prospects" list) for Sonny Gray. If Gray is worth that kind of return, what is Fulmer worth? What is Cole worth? What is Machado worth? I realize calculations are effected by salary and cost-control issues (i.e., raising Fulmer's value and lowering Machado's), but still.

I really don't think the hypotheticals I mentioned were that far-fetched in terms of bang-for-buck. And as unlikely as it is that the Yankees pull off a trade for either Fulmer or Machado (let alone both), I don't think any of you would complain about it if the exchange rate was similar to that which I postulated.

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Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman Follow Follow @JonHeyman Pirates have wanted Gleyber Torres in a Gerrit Cole deal. Can�t see yanks giving GT up. Frazier a more likely centerpiece, but would need to be more than 1 for 1. Perhaps andujar or Adams could be 2nd piece. Still negotiating.

Link - ( New Window )

In comment 13742572 BC Eagles94 said:

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actual link now Click - ( New Window )

I would think the Yanks or MLB are on the hook for the medical care.

In comment 13742735 EddieNYG said:

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Quote: Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman Follow Follow @JonHeyman Pirates have wanted Gleyber Torres in a Gerrit Cole deal. Can�t see yanks giving GT up. Frazier a more likely centerpiece, but would need to be more than 1 for 1. Perhaps andujar or Adams could be 2nd piece. Still negotiating. Link - ( New Window )

I hope not.

...than Frazier and Andujar.

.

Sonny Gray has been a much better pitcher than Gerrit Cole, and both Kaprielian and Fowler had major injury concerns, so it's not a good comparison.

does he have a great ERA for six innings and then have to pitch to many innings given the Pitt bullpen?

does every guy he leaves on base score after he leaves the game?

do the Pirates have a terrible infield or outfield?

Did he run up his ERA when the closers were injured?

The catchers cant catch?

What is the underlying reason to think he wont have a much tougher time in the AL East? Why think he may be better than our own pipeline of near ready pitchers?

this guy is still struggling to find the mix and stuff that takes him to the next level.

Many a home run. Average FB Velocity now sits just at or below 95 and going down a point a year.

I'm not seeing the grounds for a forward three year improvement trend that exceeds the likelihood that other pitchers or our own prospects have better three year improvement trends.

Anyone have convincing data on this guy?

GREAT questions. I agree. As I mentioned earlier he has a 4+ era in the NL. It will only go up in the AL. Don't understand the Yankees going aggressive on getting him. Plus having to give up major prospects.

In comment 13742756 Bill2 said:

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What is the underlying reason to think he wont have a much tougher time in the AL East? Why think he may be better than our own pipeline of near ready pitchers?

Well for one, he's done it before and the "near ready pitchers" haven't (nor have they been especially dominant at the minor league level so they aren't as near ready as you suggest). None of the Yankees pitching prospects can claim to have been the first overall pick in the draft, nor can they claim to have finished 4th in Cy Young voting with a 2.60 era in 2015. It would be one thing if he was 31 years old and several years removed from his best year, but he's only 27 and he could still have his best years ahead of him. At worst he is a mid-rotation guy and at best he is an ace. So we're talking high-floor, high-ceiling.

As for how he is trending. In 2015 he pitched like the ace he was projected to be when he was the first pick in the draft. 2016 was marred by injuries. And in 2017, with trade rumors swirling through June and July, he had stretches of dominance, interrupted by games in which he was hammered, and ultimately finished the season with unimpressive overall statistics (in some ways it was a year much like the one Tanaka had, but Tanaka finished strong so it's easy to forget the games in which he was giving up long ball after long ball). On the plus side, Cole pitched over 203 innings in 2017, more than any Yankees pitcher (I think).

The idea that his 2016 and 2017 seasons nullify what he accomplished in 2015 season is premature. Nobody would call it unprecedented if he returned to the dominance he displayed in 2015.

I know his past track record.

I dont think that is data that answers the question.

1) Ryan Leaf was drafted very high as well. So was Brian Taylor. And Drew Henson. Hideki Irabu won awards before he came here. So to me that's not a positive or relevant, if anything, that history leads to a question about his subsequent performance/makeup.

Why would a guy voted fourth in Cy Young voting 3 years ago have the mental and physical makeup to go downwards and not upwards?

He was troubled by rumors in Pittsburgh? Sounds like Mariano like ice water runs through his veins.

Name a pressure game he has won? In NY pressure is every game against the Red Sox plus the playoffs.

Seriously, we don't need another mid rotation guy. So the answer is that he is troubled by injuries in one year and rumors in another? These are ace like performance indicators?

He had 200 innings to break even and record a 4.26 ERA in the National League? So he was not injured and submitted a large sample size ( so we cant discount a bad game or even five).

I agree our minor league guys are not ready to meet NY Yankees pitching expectations.

What do we see that tells us this guy is ready to meet NY Yankees pitching expectations?

I agree that a 200 innings eater helps the bullpen and he may benefit from a good bullpen when he struggles ( but as a fly ball HR pitcher he far too often loses before he struggles ). But a 2-2 4.26 ERA is not worth a lot from us

Unless someone has data to tell us what the reasons to beleive are?

Honestly, Milton when a guy used to do it and no longer does thats more of a warning signal than unfounded hope he will turn it around?

Ken Rosenthal‏Verified account
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Just announced: #Dodgers get Matt Kemp from #Braves for Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Charlie Culberson and cash.

In comment 13742783 Bill2 said:

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I know his past track record. I dont think that is data that answers the question. 1) Ryan Leaf was drafted very high as well. So was Brian Taylor. And Drew Henson. Hideki Irabu won awards before he came here. So to me that's not a positive or relevant, if anything, that history leads to a question about his subsequent performance/makeup.

The point was that he showed ace potential at a young age and backed it up by pitching like an ace in 2015. Ryan Leaf, Brien Taylor, Drew Henson never backed it up at the highest level.

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Why would a guy voted fourth in Cy Young voting 3 years ago have the mental and physical makeup to go downwards and not upwards?

He had two down seasons, not three, and one was marred by injuries, the other was up and down. It happens. Guys have good years, guys have bad years (especially when they are set back by injuries). Are you giving up on Machado because he didn't hit as well in 2017 as he did in 2016?

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Honestly, Milton when a guy used to do it and no longer does thats more of a warning signal than unfounded hope he will turn it around?

He's still young. Only 27. I don't think Frazier and Adams are too much to give up for him. Frazier is blocked and some believe Adams will never be anything more than a middle reliever or a mid-rotation guy at best. You get what you pay for. It's not like the Yankees are giving up Torres, Florial, or Sheffield in the suggested trade.

Actually for the month of June his era was 6.17 (despite going 4-2) but he turned it round in July witha monthly era of 2.25 (and a 5-0 record). It was an up and won year for him.

I agree that Frazier and Adams are not our very top of line prospects ( imho, in Frazier's case its more because he is blocked and Adams has better competition inn system) and often it is better to sell sooner rather than later on talent.

Let Adams battle Montgomery for the last spot, and the loser can fill in when someone gets hurt.

Why dump every prospects you have just so you can have a "name" at every position? Wasn't it more fun to root for home grown players last year?

In comment 13742762 Bill2 said:

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this guy is still struggling to find the mix and stuff that takes him to the next level. Many a home run. Average FB Velocity now sits just at or below 95 and going down a point a year. I'm not seeing the grounds for a forward three year improvement trend that exceeds the likelihood that other pitchers or our own prospects have better three year improvement trends. Anyone have convincing data on this guy?

I agree. I'd MUCH rather have Fullmer, who's proven himself in the AL. It sounds to me like the cost is similar, so to me it's a no brainer.

In comment 13742783 Bill2 said:

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I know his past track record. I dont think that is data that answers the question. 1) Ryan Leaf was drafted very high as well. So was Brian Taylor. And Drew Henson. Hideki Irabu won awards before he came here. So to me that's not a positive or relevant, if anything, that history leads to a question about his subsequent performance/makeup. Why would a guy voted fourth in Cy Young voting 3 years ago have the mental and physical makeup to go downwards and not upwards? He was troubled by rumors in Pittsburgh? Sounds like Mariano like ice water runs through his veins. Name a pressure game he has won? In NY pressure is every game against the Red Sox plus the playoffs. Seriously, we don't need another mid rotation guy. So the answer is that he is troubled by injuries in one year and rumors in another? These are ace like performance indicators? He had 200 innings to break even and record a 4.26 ERA in the National League? So he was not injured and submitted a large sample size ( so we cant discount a bad game or even five). I agree our minor league guys are not ready to meet NY Yankees pitching expectations. What do we see that tells us this guy is ready to meet NY Yankees pitching expectations? I agree that a 200 innings eater helps the bullpen and he may benefit from a good bullpen when he struggles ( but as a fly ball HR pitcher he far too often loses before he struggles ). But a 2-2 4.26 ERA is not worth a lot from us Unless someone has data to tell us what the reasons to beleive are? Honestly, Milton when a guy used to do it and no longer does thats more of a warning signal than unfounded hope he will turn it around?

Most of his metrics were identical to his 19-8 2.60 ERA season with one exception- home runs where he gave up 3 times as many as his 19-8 season and double the rate of his career marks.

He also threw his fastball and slider less last year and his curve and change much more so it could be that he just hasn't mastered those two pitches. Weirdly, the Mets had his number- 6 home runs (20% of his total) in 10 innings in two starts.

So, I can see where a team might regard the home run total as aberrational and really like the rest of the marks and especially having a cost controlled 200 IP pitcher who is 27.

is a fastball -slider pitcher with a little change mixed in. He seems to be toying with a curve ball. He doesn't really have any other pitches. His K rate is down, his BABIP is up a little, his ERA was up and his HR rate was nearly half of the year before.

Whether that means he is getting better as a pitcher or he just got lucky, I will leave to you folks.

Thanks Homer. An old friend comes through with the insights.

Happy Holidays

We never had the theoretical dinner we discussed. I think you would find some of the stuff I am working on interesting--still all relates to technological change, but with lots of different spins. Let me know what you think.

email on way

with CC back. I speculated immediately after the Stanton trade that the Yanks would dangle Clint Frazier for Cole (not that it was a good idea, but that's what I thought would happen). If they make another move it should be for Brad Hand to build the monster pen

Also, I think that Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield makes it to the Bronx at some point as the fifth starter (injuries or ineffectiveness to one of the current starters)

In comment 13742898 Bill2 said:

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email on way

mg has my email too ...

Enjoy seeing you both

That's what I would do as well

a SP and a RP.

Seems one goes down and one goes off year every year ( witness Betances last year)

In comment 13742928 dpinzow said:

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Also, I think that Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield makes it to the Bronx at some point as the fifth starter (injuries or ineffectiveness to one of the current starters)

Adams is ready to be tested at the Major League level, but Sheffield has only 93 innings at the Double A level, so he's probably a full year away.

In comment 13742940 Bill2 said:

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Enjoy seeing you both

just emailed both of you @ most recent emails I've got for ya ...

Replied. GTG.