NFT: Yanks talk 12-15 Yanks -Pirates talking Cole

In comment 13742762 Bill2 said:

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this guy is still struggling to find the mix and stuff that takes him to the next level. Many a home run. Average FB Velocity now sits just at or below 95 and going down a point a year. I'm not seeing the grounds for a forward three year improvement trend that exceeds the likelihood that other pitchers or our own prospects have better three year improvement trends. Anyone have convincing data on this guy?

I agree. I'd MUCH rather have Fullmer, who's proven himself in the AL. It sounds to me like the cost is similar, so to me it's a no brainer.

In comment 13742783 Bill2 said:

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I know his past track record. I dont think that is data that answers the question. 1) Ryan Leaf was drafted very high as well. So was Brian Taylor. And Drew Henson. Hideki Irabu won awards before he came here. So to me that's not a positive or relevant, if anything, that history leads to a question about his subsequent performance/makeup. Why would a guy voted fourth in Cy Young voting 3 years ago have the mental and physical makeup to go downwards and not upwards? He was troubled by rumors in Pittsburgh? Sounds like Mariano like ice water runs through his veins. Name a pressure game he has won? In NY pressure is every game against the Red Sox plus the playoffs. Seriously, we don't need another mid rotation guy. So the answer is that he is troubled by injuries in one year and rumors in another? These are ace like performance indicators? He had 200 innings to break even and record a 4.26 ERA in the National League? So he was not injured and submitted a large sample size ( so we cant discount a bad game or even five). I agree our minor league guys are not ready to meet NY Yankees pitching expectations. What do we see that tells us this guy is ready to meet NY Yankees pitching expectations? I agree that a 200 innings eater helps the bullpen and he may benefit from a good bullpen when he struggles ( but as a fly ball HR pitcher he far too often loses before he struggles ). But a 2-2 4.26 ERA is not worth a lot from us Unless someone has data to tell us what the reasons to beleive are? Honestly, Milton when a guy used to do it and no longer does thats more of a warning signal than unfounded hope he will turn it around?

Most of his metrics were identical to his 19-8 2.60 ERA season with one exception- home runs where he gave up 3 times as many as his 19-8 season and double the rate of his career marks.

He also threw his fastball and slider less last year and his curve and change much more so it could be that he just hasn't mastered those two pitches. Weirdly, the Mets had his number- 6 home runs (20% of his total) in 10 innings in two starts.

So, I can see where a team might regard the home run total as aberrational and really like the rest of the marks and especially having a cost controlled 200 IP pitcher who is 27.

is a fastball -slider pitcher with a little change mixed in. He seems to be toying with a curve ball. He doesn't really have any other pitches. His K rate is down, his BABIP is up a little, his ERA was up and his HR rate was nearly half of the year before.

Whether that means he is getting better as a pitcher or he just got lucky, I will leave to you folks.

Thanks Homer. An old friend comes through with the insights.

Happy Holidays

We never had the theoretical dinner we discussed. I think you would find some of the stuff I am working on interesting--still all relates to technological change, but with lots of different spins. Let me know what you think.

email on way

with CC back. I speculated immediately after the Stanton trade that the Yanks would dangle Clint Frazier for Cole (not that it was a good idea, but that's what I thought would happen). If they make another move it should be for Brad Hand to build the monster pen

Also, I think that Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield makes it to the Bronx at some point as the fifth starter (injuries or ineffectiveness to one of the current starters)

In comment 13742898 Bill2 said:

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email on way

mg has my email too ...

Enjoy seeing you both

That's what I would do as well

a SP and a RP.

Seems one goes down and one goes off year every year ( witness Betances last year)

In comment 13742928 dpinzow said:

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Also, I think that Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield makes it to the Bronx at some point as the fifth starter (injuries or ineffectiveness to one of the current starters)

Adams is ready to be tested at the Major League level, but Sheffield has only 93 innings at the Double A level, so he's probably a full year away.

In comment 13742940 Bill2 said:

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Enjoy seeing you both

just emailed both of you @ most recent emails I've got for ya ...

Replied. GTG.