The Case for Lamar Jackson

you posted his college stats as some how a piece of evidence of support, you lost me.

Its a fundamental misunderstanding of both sports statistics and extrapolation.

trade back into the first and take Jackson.

Jackson is a possibility for any team needing a QB. But I think he'll need to make the adjustment to staying in the pocket rather than running. In the NFL, if he runs the way he has in college, his body won't hold up. He'll have a short career the way RBs have a short career.

But I'd much prefer a Russell Wilson type mobile QB than a Michael Vick type mobile QB.

you arent missing anything. Hes right there as far as I’m concerned. I wouldnt pick any of these QB’s at #2, but if they traded down and were able to draft him later in the round I’d be ecstatic.

A running QB's playing career is too much of a risk.

Rule number one

You don't have to convince me.

Despite us disagreeing on virtually everything else, we're in lockstep on Lamar Jackson.

I think he has the ability to be an absolutely lethal player and have been beating that drum for quite a while now.

as the other QBs actually watched a game or two and just dont know by the numbers...

That being said, his playmaking ability is off the charts...him being another RGIII is what scares the hell out of me. Running is in his DNA and its a huge fundamental shift to the NFL.

No other QB I can think of also had major disruption/mismatch players in OBJ and Engram at the same time.

The strain of covering/watching all three while staying in ones pass rushing lanes would be difficult on a defense.

A year while ELi plays longer and the OL jells would be a significant learning period

So given promising upside:

Can he pass the same going left as right?

Once he begins to run does he throw first if its available or once he pulls the ball down does he always run?

Does he do well when he is under center?

Those are all habits that are hard to break.

This narrative that Jackson bails after one read and takes off running also needs to stop, guys.

He took off running so often because his line can't block and he was pressured early and often on many of his dropbacks.

Many of his WR's were injured or sucked. The starting RB this year was a converted QB.

The talent around him stunk.

Jackson can, and will stand in the pocket to throw the ball downfield if you protect him.

His toughness is also underrated. I'd like to see him add a little bit to his frame to withstand some hits, but he's a very tough kid.

Eli (of today) - statue

Brady - slow runner, but doesn't matter since he can move and slide within the pocket

Wilson - runs, but protects his body

Vick - sacrifices his body, runs too often

give me #2 or #3. not a big fan of RPO either, don't want to see the QB getting smacked around.

Deshaun Watson was the guy who won me over last year. I was ready to take him if he fell to us.

His performances against the Alabama defense and his leadership qualities had me sold.

But...

All...running...NFL QBs...get....hurt

That's not what I saw with him. I saw a bunch of planned runs...he was the de facto running back. I didn't see anything that was all that different from what Carolina is doing with Newton.

His passing stats this year are better than Rosen and Darnold in some regards.

He's going to be lethal if he finds the right coach.

Meant that no other running QB I know of ( other than Steve Young ) had as many other major mismatches as Jackson would have with the Giants

is very underrated.

I think he could start for the Giants next year and we could have a top 5 offense.

This is not a guy that just pulls the ball down and runs at the sight of trouble:

In comment 13772421 markky said:

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Eli (of today) - statue Brady - slow runner, but doesn't matter since he can move and slide within the pocket Wilson - runs, but protects his body Vick - sacrifices his body, runs too often give me #2 or #3. not a big fan of RPO either, don't want to see the QB getting smacked around.

Jackson wants to stay in the pocket and pass. He's not looking to run all the time like Griffin or Vick were - but when he does take off, he's absolutely electric.

So, you want to use that part of his game without exposing him to unnecessary risk.

Good coaches will know how to get the most out of Jackson.

This is a better prospect than RG3. I am very confident in that. A much better prospect.

I want a QB that is looking to throw the ball, even when he is on the move, until the last possible moment. Steve Young and Russell Wilson are the perfect examples. Jackson is a very athletic RB playing QB.

In comment 13772413 bLiTz 2k said:

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as the other QBs actually watched a game or two and just dont know by the numbers... That being said, his playmaking ability is off the charts...him being another RGIII is what scares the hell out of me. Running is in his DNA and its a huge fundamental shift to the NFL.

I’ve watch a lot of Louisville games the last two years and Lamar is a tremendously exciting player. I think he’s basically Michael Vick and the giants could do worse. Is he my first choice, no but I would be happy with him in blue.

Running QBs just never last in the NFL. It literally never happens. They don’t survive. He may be one of the best to come out in years and that still wouldn’t make me want to draft him. Russell Wilson is a major outlier and even he is a throw first player. I’m sure Jackson is very good. I don’t think there’s any doubt about it but we have an opportunity to draft a franchise QB and I’d much prefer to draft one who has a much better chance at giving us 10+ years over one who will create some serious mismatches early in his career but may take too many hits and not be available 5 years from now.

wouldn't take him at #2 obviously, but would consider him in the mid teens. He's an electrifying player. I still think he's more of a thrower than a passer, but agree his OL and surrounding talent were limited. He was under a lot of pressure on most plays. Opposing defenses were completely geared to stop him. In any event, a trade down from #2 into the mid teens would net extra draft picks that would provide a cushion if he fails.

In comment 13772438 Torrag said:

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I want a QB that is looking to throw the ball, even when he is on the move, until the last possible moment. Steve Young and Russell Wilson are the perfect examples. Jackson is a very athletic RB playing QB.

No he’s not. He has a cannon for an arm. He will be a QB in the NFL. He and Josh Allen are going to blow up after the combine.

if he didn't become RG4. Learn sliding. Few if any, designed run plays. Just being a threat to run is good enough if he does it occasionally.

that will not translate well at the NFL level. That's my main gripe with him. He's not particularly good or confident in the pocket. He doesn't take big hits and has proven to be extremely durable. But the accuracy both in and out of the pocket might be too much for the Giants to overlook.

At this point, a trade down, get picks and/or players, scoop up Jackson, wouldn't make me upset.

It would certainly increase the entertainment value of this team because he is a ton of fun to watch. Him, Beckham, Engram are three absolutely LETHAL offensive weapons.

In comment 13772438 Torrag said:

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I want a QB that is looking to throw the ball, even when he is on the move, until the last possible moment. Steve Young and Russell Wilson are the perfect examples. Jackson is a very athletic RB playing QB.

Jackson IS looking to throw the ball.

The runs were either by design or because his line was awful and couldnt hold protections which forced him to bail.

Put a good OL in front of him where he won't get killed and he'll make big time plays.

In comment 13772399 BestFeature said:

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But I'd much prefer a Russell Wilson type mobile QB than a Michael Vick type mobile QB.

He's closer to Wilson than Vick. He runs because he has to

Yes he is. Arm strength doesn't make a QB...it's everything else around it that matters.

Jackson has talent. I just don’t want a QB who runs around a lot.

Even guys who pass first but run/extend plays consistently get hurt. Rodgers, Ben, Romo

Now look at your pure pocket passers.
Peyton, Eli, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Brady. These are the guys with the consecutive starts streaks and playing into their 40s.

There are exceptions to every rule but all things equal give me the pocket passer all day.

And 57% completions in that offense is not good enough.

How many games did Bob Griffin miss due not injury in college? How many running quarterbacks have to be ground up in the NFL before we understand its not sustainable?

.

In comment 13772453 B in ALB said:

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that will not translate well at the NFL level. That's my main gripe with him. He's not particularly good or confident in the pocket. He doesn't take big hits and has proven to be extremely durable. But the accuracy both in and out of the pocket might be too much for the Giants to overlook. At this point, a trade down, get picks and/or players, scoop up Jackson, wouldn't make me upset. It would certainly increase the entertainment value of this team because he is a ton of fun to watch. Him, Beckham, Engram are three absolutely LETHAL offensive weapons.

The accuracy issues are his big criticism. He also needs to add muscle, but I assume that's less of a concern since he'll be in an NFL weight training and nutrition program.

If the Giants trade out of #2, I don't think they'll take Jackson when they pick in the first round.

Looking at those stats just further enhances my hope that we get Sam Darnold.

In comment 13772465 widmerseyebrow said:

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And 57% completions in that offense is not good enough. How many games did Bob Griffin miss due not injury in college? How many running quarterbacks have to be ground up in the NFL before we understand its not sustainable?

He was at 60% this year - his completion% rose in succession each of the 3 years he played @ LOU

I'd love it if the Giants snagged him at the top of rd 2 if they didn't go QB rd 1 and he somehow fell.

You figure he'd be the 5th QB off the board. 5th qbs don't fall to the top of rd 2 often, but if he does, I'd be ecstatic.

Of taking another project QB we already have one.

In comment 13772395 Lefty said:

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you posted his college stats as some how a piece of evidence of support, you lost me. Its a fundamental misunderstanding of both sports statistics and extrapolation.

That was my reaction. It’s weird because GT would probably point out the same thing if a thread was started using college stats about a player he didn’t like.

As for the OP, if we pulled off abbig trade down than I’d be fine rolling the dice on Jackson later in the 1st. But I can’t see taking him at 2 and if I was going to obscure route I’d rather have Mayfield.

Here's a video comparing Jackson and Allen and their poise in the pocket. This guy (I don't know how credible he is but he has a website and he puts some work into these breakdowns) makes the case the Jackson is poised and calm in the pocket where Allen is frenetic.
Link - ( New Window )

Won one bowl game in 3 years. Didn’t win a big game his entire career.

I question his ability to stay healthy at the NFL level with his style and build.

Good deep ball but not an accurate passer.

Doesn’t seem like the sharpest tool in the shed.

With a lot of colleges employing QBs like Jackson someone like him or better should be available every draft.

Can anyone speak to this QB classes football acumen? IQs?

Is there evidence behind the idea that he is "not the sharpest tool in the shed" ?

I do agree that ( as we can see with Eli) accuracy and touch on mid and short passes is a necessity in the NFL

I'd love for the Giants to have the balls to take him.

Injury waiting to happen. No thank you.

In comment 13772510 Bill2 said:

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Is there evidence behind the idea that he is "not the sharpest tool in the shed" ? I do agree that ( as we can see with Eli) accuracy and touch on mid and short passes is a necessity in the NFL

I was wondering the same thing.

In comment 13772412 arcarsenal said:

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You don't have to convince me. Despite us disagreeing on virtually everything else, we're in lockstep on Lamar Jackson. I think he has the ability to be an absolutely lethal player and have been beating that drum for quite a while now.

This, I fell in love with his skills when I saw him single handily demolish Syracuse in 2016

and I don't watch a great deal of college ball, but I went to the game at Syracuse last year not knowing much about him. He was a specimen to watch, a man among boys.

as a 19 year-old being affable and humble in a nationally broadcast interview.

He comes off at least as well as most of us would have in that situation.
Dan Patrick Show - ( New Window )

Only thing is he needs to learn how to slide more often then not otherwise he's the next rg3

He sits nicely in the pocket however from what I've seen, just stands back there tall and poised ..

His speed in the open field is incredible but he should slide all the time or else he's toast in the NFL

He's def a top 3 QB this year imo. Darnold , Allen and Jackson

About his thoughts about trying out as a WR. That’s all you need to know about how some of the league thinks of his passing acumen. Major F’ing pass on this guy.

Accuracy is not something that usually improves in the pro game. Windows are tighter. Allen and Jackson will be busts. NO

In comment 13772485 sharpshooter66 said:

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Of taking another project QB we already have one.

You obviously haven't watched him.

Bobby Petrino.

His offense makes everyone look good. He gets receivers running open all over the field. And at every one of his stops. The guy is a college offensive genius...

If we criticize QBs from the B12, the same skepticism has to be applied to Petrino trained offensive players...

So big buyer beware of LJax. Can he eventually make it? Absolutely. But he’s too much of a project, and you can’t reward projects the #2 pick in the draft...

can they take the hits at next level (Rosen shown to have injury history) with their body frame..esp Jackson running a lot.

myock had an interesting take on him a month ago. as get closer to draft day..these qbs will separate as to an idea where they are.

In comment 13772560 The_Boss said:

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About his thoughts about trying out as a WR. That’s all you need to know about how some of the league thinks of his passing acumen. Major F’ing pass on this guy.

All I need to know is that you've read about how people will ask him what he thinks about playing WR?

I need to know more than that.

If this kid were white this board would be gushing over him. People project every negative stereotype of black QBs on him: he isn’t smart , he wants to run not throw, he isn’t accurate, he is a project. I’d love for the Giants to pick him, especially in a trade down a few spots. But ownership doesn’t have the balls to have him be Eli’s successor.

In comment 13772577 bw in dc said:

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Bobby Petrino. His offense makes everyone look good. He gets receivers running open all over the field. And at every one of his stops. The guy is a college offensive genius... If we criticize QBs from the B12, the same skepticism has to be applied to Petrino trained offensive players... So big buyer beware of LJax. Can he eventually make it? Absolutely. But he’s too much of a project, and you can’t reward projects the #2 pick in the draft...

Then fucking hire Bobby Petrino.

An offense that can't maximize this talent is a bad offense.

In comment 13772421 markky said:

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Eli (of today) - statue Brady - slow runner, but doesn't matter since he can move and slide within the pocket Wilson - runs, but protects his body Vick - sacrifices his body, runs too often give me #2 or #3. not a big fan of RPO either, don't want to see the QB getting smacked around.

I know it's not your point, but Eli's not a statue. He is quite adept at sliding in the pocket to find a passing lane. He even throws just fine on rollouts just fine. Eli is not fast, and you're right that Brady is more mobile -- but not by much.

of his games but somethings he does amazes me. When his Oline breaks down (often) and he rolls out, it's shocking how far and fast this kid can roll right and left buying himself a few precious seconds. I've never seen a QB that fast.

In comment 13772569 Thegratefulhead said:

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Accuracy is not something that usually improves in the pro game. Windows are tighter. Allen and Jackson will be busts. NO

Very good post.

Like I said - his accuracy issues will be a big issue at the next level.

If you have seen Jackson play he is really one dimensional
He is a runner
An exceptional runner

He does have a strong arm but he is not accurate
He is late and off target even when he completes a pass

Jackson reminds me of a young Vick
But Vick was a better thrower and faster


There is even speculation that some teams view him as a receiver
And not a QB

In comment 13772653 Archer said:

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If you have seen Jackson play he is really one dimensional He is a runner An exceptional runner He does have a strong arm but he is not accurate He is late and off target even when he completes a pass Jackson reminds me of a young Vick But Vick was a better thrower and faster There is even speculation that some teams view him as a receiver And not a QB

Michael Vick was absolutely not a better thrower.

Other than the obvious 57% comp pct?

How about some visuals?







My apologies that I couldn't find a gif of the 4th INT he threw in that game.

Is pretty glaring considering they played some real dogs in the ACC. Not sure how that could possibly be leveraged as a positive.

In comment 13772585 oldutican said:

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If this kid were white this board would be gushing over him. People project every negative stereotype of black QBs on him: he isn’t smart , he wants to run not throw, he isn’t accurate, he is a project. I’d love for the Giants to pick him, especially in a trade down a few spots. But ownership doesn’t have the balls to have him be Eli’s successor.

Not buying this... everyone gushed about Cam Newton (and not Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert) in 2011. Everyone gushed about Michael Vick and Jamracus Russell too. Same with RG3 (while no one was gushing about Cousins).

I like Jackson a lot and he may turn out to be the best QB in the draft but maybe the thought is simply that the 2018 NFL is a passing league and the other guys are more prototypical passers with a higher ceiling. Same holds true for Mayfield too.

Josh Allen's completion% was lower than Jackson's this year and Jackson is a far better athlete - yet, half the board is gaga over Allen.

Josh Allen also played against a grand total of one Power5 team in his college career and he was dreadful when he did.

Joe Montana had like a sub-55% completion percentage in college.

People are getting too hung up on this number.

Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year

Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR

In comment 13772671 arcarsenal said:

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Josh Allen's completion% was lower than Jackson's this year and Jackson is a far better athlete - yet, half the board is gaga over Allen.

FWIW, I've been critical of Jackson, and I want nothing to do with Allen either.

I don't think accuracy issues improve when players move up in class. Some mechanics can be improved upon, but I don't think a 57% college passer ever becomes efficient in the NFL.

In comment 13772671 arcarsenal said:

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Josh Allen's completion% was lower than Jackson's this year and Jackson is a far better athlete - yet, half the board is gaga over Allen.

Uh, Allen has a release like Marino. And he can make every throw imaginable. Jackson is not in that realm. Thus, the enormous intrigue with Allen...

ever won in the NFL? Maybe Cam Newton? This isn’t a guy who just ran for a few yards here or there and showed mobility, he ran for a shit ton of yards and had a relatively low completion percentage.

If you look at the history of the league, if you’re going to win with Jackson, you’ll have to make him into something he might not 100 percent be-a Russel Wilson/Cam Newton/even Aaron Rodgers type who runs a lot lower percentage of the time. Maybe he is incomparable and he’ll blaze a new path but I just don’t see how you’d have a better chance with him then with a pocket passer with some mobility.

In comment 13772674 arcarsenal said:

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Joe Montana had like a sub-55% completion percentage in college. People are getting too hung up on this number.

College offenses were nowhere near as efficient in general in the 1970s as they are now. He also only threw 515 passes in three years in college, with his season high of 260 in his senior year. That's kind of a ridiculous comparison - it's not remotely apples to apples, and I suspect you know that.

Speaking of Dan Marino..

Career 57% passer in college.

Why is Jackson's number a big deal again?

Marino threw 17 TD's and 23 picks as a senior, by the way.

Those were slightly different eras to compare completion percentage.

In comment 13772680 arcarsenal said:

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Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR

You're not comparing offenses and defenses as equals over 20 years apart are you? Come on arc.

In comment 13772693 Gatorade Dunk said:

Quote:

In comment 13772674 arcarsenal said: Quote: Joe Montana had like a sub-55% completion percentage in college. People are getting too hung up on this number. College offenses were nowhere near as efficient in general in the 1970s as they are now. He also only threw 515 passes in three years in college, with his season high of 260 in his senior year. That's kind of a ridiculous comparison - it's not remotely apples to apples, and I suspect you know that.

Okay, forget the 70's..

Wentz was at 62% as a Senior.. Jackson @ 59% as a JR.

People are making way too big a deal about this number.

In comment 13772694 arcarsenal said:

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Speaking of Dan Marino.. Career 57% passer in college. Why is Jackson's number a big deal again? Marino threw 17 TD's and 23 picks as a senior, by the way.

Here's the good news: neither one of us jackwagons will be making the pick (or any picks) for the Giants. So we can debate this all night, and probably won't change each other's mind.

But we'll see what happens when each of these guys reaches the NFL. I'm perfectly comfortable going on record saying that I don't think Jackson will be an effective NFL QB, and I hope you're just as comfortable going on record saying that you think he will be. In a few years, we'll have a much better sense of who's right.

Unless, of course, the Giants draft him. Because my understanding is that Eli will be the starter for the next 3-5 years, so we might not get a chance to see Jackson for a while either way if that happens.

In comment 13772708 Gatorade Dunk said:

Quote:

In comment 13772694 arcarsenal said: Quote: Speaking of Dan Marino.. Career 57% passer in college. Why is Jackson's number a big deal again? Marino threw 17 TD's and 23 picks as a senior, by the way. Here's the good news: neither one of us jackwagons will be making the pick (or any picks) for the Giants. So we can debate this all night, and probably won't change each other's mind. But we'll see what happens when each of these guys reaches the NFL. I'm perfectly comfortable going on record saying that I don't think Jackson will be an effective NFL QB, and I hope you're just as comfortable going on record saying that you think he will be. In a few years, we'll have a much better sense of who's right. Unless, of course, the Giants draft him. Because my understanding is that Eli will be the starter for the next 3-5 years, so we might not get a chance to see Jackson for a while either way if that happens.

I've been wrong a billion times - I'll be wrong a billion more. If I am wrong about Jackson, I'll have no problem admitting it.

I think he, in particular, needs above average coaching to thrive - but if he gets it, I think he can be a hell of a player.

I also feel confident that the Giants won't be drafting him - so, we'll be watching him in another uniform more than likely. Hopefully not a team I really dislike.. unless he sucks. Then I'd be fine with it.

In comment 13772694 arcarsenal said:

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Speaking of Dan Marino.. Career 57% passer in college. Why is Jackson's number a big deal again? Marino threw 17 TD's and 23 picks as a senior, by the way.

Blame Marino’s senior year slide on cocaine. Nearly every one else did.

In comment 13772670 kinard said:

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In comment 13772585 oldutican said: Quote: If this kid were white this board would be gushing over him. People project every negative stereotype of black QBs on him: he isn’t smart , he wants to run not throw, he isn’t accurate, he is a project. I’d love for the Giants to pick him, especially in a trade down a few spots. But ownership doesn’t have the balls to have him be Eli’s successor. Not buying this... everyone gushed about Cam Newton (and not Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert) in 2011. Everyone gushed about Michael Vick and Jamracus Russell too. Same with RG3 (while no one was gushing about Cousins). I like Jackson a lot and he may turn out to be the best QB in the draft but maybe the thought is simply that the 2018 NFL is a passing league and the other guys are more prototypical passers with a higher ceiling. Same holds true for Mayfield too.

Whoa, wait.

Not many were gushing over Russell. I remember him being seen as a late 1st/early 2nd rounder at best because of all the questions about him (which proved correct). Only the Raiders were crazy enough to draft him at #1 - which is why IMO he'll never be as big a bust as Leaf.

There is a huge difference when you are watching who’s commanding the game, and how that translates to the NFL.

From what I’ve seen from Jackson, when good teams blitz him from different directions, he’s looks lost. When teams rush only 3, he also looks lost.

As dynamic as he could look, I just haven’t seen the improvement as a passer that I would like. Always looks like if that first read isn’t there, he takes off.

In comment 13772690 mattnyg05 said:

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ever won in the NFL? Maybe Cam Newton? This isn’t a guy who just ran for a few yards here or there and showed mobility, he ran for a shit ton of yards and had a relatively low completion percentage. If you look at the history of the league, if you’re going to win with Jackson, you’ll have to make him into something he might not 100 percent be-a Russel Wilson/Cam Newton/even Aaron Rodgers type who runs a lot lower percentage of the time. Maybe he is incomparable and he’ll blaze a new path but I just don’t see how you’d have a better chance with him then with a pocket passer with some mobility.

Cunningham.

In comment 13772491 Go Terps said:

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Here's a video comparing Jackson and Allen and their poise in the pocket. This guy (I don't know how credible he is but he has a website and he puts some work into these breakdowns) makes the case the Jackson is poised and calm in the pocket where Allen is frenetic. Link - ( New Window )

Terps: Thank you for that link. IMO, the host knows his stuff. It's very, very interesting. The only question I have is were these plays cherry picked? Do you know being a big follower of college ball?

In comment 13772497 WillVAB said:

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Won one bowl game in 3 years. Didn’t win a big game his entire career. I question his ability to stay healthy at the NFL level with his style and build. Good deep ball but not an accurate passer. Doesn’t seem like the sharpest tool in the shed. With a lot of colleges employing QBs like Jackson someone like him or better should be available every draft.

2015: lost three one score games to open the year to Auburn, Houston and Clemson

2016: hung 63 on FSU, Nearly beat Clemson.

All while having far inferior talent

In comment 13772772 ajr2456 said:

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In comment 13772497 WillVAB said: Quote: Won one bowl game in 3 years. Didn’t win a big game his entire career. I question his ability to stay healthy at the NFL level with his style and build. Good deep ball but not an accurate passer. Doesn’t seem like the sharpest tool in the shed. With a lot of colleges employing QBs like Jackson someone like him or better should be available every draft. 2015: lost three one score games to open the year to Auburn, Houston and Clemson 2016: hung 63 on FSU, Nearly beat Clemson. All while having far inferior talent

2 decent wins in 3 years BFD

he has the frame of a sprinter.

Those body types just dont hold up at QB in the NFL

Of points. If his team lacked an impressive amount of big wins, my guess is that it likely wasn't due to him stinking up the field like Darnold against Ohio State.

In comment 13772671 arcarsenal said:

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Josh Allen's completion% was lower than Jackson's this year and Jackson is a far better athlete - yet, half the board is gaga over Allen.

Because Allen didn't play in a Bobby Petrino passer friendly offense that created easy completions for the QB.

Scheme means almost everything for CFB passing numbers

In comment 13772465 widmerseyebrow said:

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And 57% completions in that offense is not good enough. How many games did Bob Griffin miss due not injury in college? How many running quarterbacks have to be ground up in the NFL before we understand its not sustainable?

Eli Manning college completion percentage was 59%. That's not much higher than 57%.

remind me a ton of Randall Cunningham....but faster. Really needs some reeling in, but I could be on board if we traded down and took him.

Needs to be taught how to take a hit. A year with Eli can show him that.

To think we are getting another Manning clone with this pick would be silly. Teams that dont respect the run will lose chunks of yardage to this guy.

In comment 13772828 compton said:

Quote:

In comment 13772465 widmerseyebrow said: Quote: And 57% completions in that offense is not good enough. How many games did Bob Griffin miss due not injury in college? How many running quarterbacks have to be ground up in the NFL before we understand its not sustainable? Eli Manning college completion percentage was 59%. That's not much higher than 57%.

And his NFL completion percentage is 59.8% (and it was 58.5% before the last four years in the WCO). Is that what you want to hold up as the standard for accuracy?

Also, Eli's completion pct in college was 60.8%; I'm not sure where you got your numbers.

Link - ( New Window )

In comment 13772585 oldutican said:

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If this kid were white this board would be gushing over him. People project every negative stereotype of black QBs on him: he isn’t smart , he wants to run not throw, he isn’t accurate, he is a project. I’d love for the Giants to pick him, especially in a trade down a few spots. But ownership doesn’t have the balls to have him be Eli’s successor.

He is a runner. He is also light and when you are a runner like he is, you will be extremely prone to getting hurt. He is also not accurate within the pocket. Why is it always about these topics when people become critical about a QB of color? Is he immune of being ridiculed?

In comment 13772836 Gatorade Dunk said:

Quote:

In comment 13772828 compton said: Quote: In comment 13772465 widmerseyebrow said: Quote: And 57% completions in that offense is not good enough. How many games did Bob Griffin miss due not injury in college? How many running quarterbacks have to be ground up in the NFL before we understand its not sustainable? Eli Manning college completion percentage was 59%. That's not much higher than 57%. And his NFL completion percentage is 59.8% (and it was 58.5% before the last four years in the WCO). Is that what you want to hold up as the standard for accuracy? Also, Eli's completion pct in college was 60.8%; I'm not sure where you got your numbers. Link - ( New Window )

Dunk: I hate making historical comparisons about Jackson because they do seem racially tinged to an uncomfortable degree. However 99% of Giant fans, I am sure, want the best quarterback available to the team.

I see RG3 in Jackson. Not Randall , who was a moose. RG3 was extremely talented when he came to the league. He wrecked his knee. He got beat up. He hurt his shoulder . That’s my concern with Jackson.

Beef up, as many always say 'a year in a pro conditioning'...

I have no idea about qbs, not looking. But the idea of trade down, get the guard or the de and a mobile QB in the mix.

This guy could have a few years w Webb and Manning to get ready. No idea though. As I said not looking this year yet

in a Pro setting yet would say Jackson is slight. 20-21 years old and will sit behind Eli and learn the Pro game. Right now kid is 212 lbs. Giants would have an athletic QB game changer to go with Beckum and Engram. Giants have to come into the present and look to the future. Defenders are getting so much faster each year. QB have to have escape ability. Kap, Wilson and Newton have all led teams to the Super Bowl. This kid might be better than all of them. Wont have to hear about Dak Prescott any more either.

are just going by the "athletic black QB" stereotype.

Its simply not true. He wants to pass the ball and will stay in the pocket to do so.

And if you want to talk about a QB that likes to pull the ball down and run, take a look at Josh Allen.

but for me he's a second rounder. I'm just not convinced he's an NFL passer. He makes some Tebow-esque throws.

Tebow's throwing motion was awful. It was like a MLB pitcher winding up. He had a ridiculously long release and the mechanics were just really ugly.

Jackson is a much, much better thrower than Tebow. Not even close.

Yes, the accuracy needs to be better. But again - people gush over Josh Rosen as a passer and yet, his completion% was very close to Jackson's.

In comment 13773071 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

Tebow's throwing motion was awful. It was like a MLB pitcher winding up. He had a ridiculously long release and the mechanics were just really ugly. Jackson is a much, much better thrower than Tebow. Not even close. Yes, the accuracy needs to be better. But again - people gush over Josh Rosen as a passer and yet, his completion% was very close to Jackson's.

Wasn't comparing the throwing motions, just the results. And Tebow's completion percentage was really good in college.

Completion percentage is not the perfect stat. Rosen is a far more accurate passer than Jackson because Rosen can throw into tight spots. I haven't seen an instance where Jackson has done that and the offense he runs is designed to avoid those kinds of throws. He won't have those big windows in the nfl.

Jackson also threw the ball quite a bit more than Tebow.

LJax attempted 430 passes this season. Tebow didn't even attempt 300 as a Junior (298) and 314 as a senior.

Thinking about the whole team, and am totally willing to wait in tne qb and use Webb and Manning ...even given the apparently or very hopefully unique opportunity of a super high pick.

But, that said, and nothing is without risk... If Jackson is what his fans say he is...AND we get the guard or the DE...it potentially adds an x factor that we don't have.

Then, if we do go all outside zone runs, play action Atlanta or shanny style, Which, as I have said, seems to work in today's football.. A kid like this might ..thrive in that.

anyone could watch this guy and actually believe he’s going to be a good NFL QB.

I love the “if he could just learn to pocket pass and only run when he has to” argument.

This guy - as a pocket passer - has no chance in the NFL. He isnt even a 3rd string quality thrower in the NFL.

His entire game is running around making great plays with his legs - a style that will get him killed in the NFL.

This is what makes draft talk so fun I guess, but I wouldnt touch him with a 10 foot poll and agree with others that his best bet is a position switch. I really am shocked anyone thinks enough of his passing abity to think he’ll ever be good in the pocket.

In comment 13772680 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR

Again, college statstics are pointless by every measure.

I have not looked. But it's possible that Jackson can (toss into close coverage) and just hasn't been required to?

Or, saw the tight coverage and wisely did not throw there?

I guess the combine will help to some degree.

Thinking trade down here.

In comment 13773104 Lefty said:

Quote:

In comment 13772680 arcarsenal said: Quote: Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR Again, college statstics are pointless by every measure.

I'm not the one that keeps bringing up his completion percentage. It's what his detractors keep pointing to.

percentage posts are hysterical.

In comment 13773104 Lefty said:

Quote:

In comment 13772680 arcarsenal said: Quote: Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR Again, college statstics are pointless by every measure.

Picking Manning's worst college season vs. Jackson's best completion % wise. I agree, that is a pointless measure.

Can you list all your data behind your clearly stated assertion that he is "not the sharpest tool in the shed"??

Obviously, conclusive evidence of this is relevant so your research would be helpful to us all.

Thanks WillVAB

I didn't choose one of Peyton's seasons at random - I compared their final college seasons' completion% to show what each was when they declared for the draft.

The idea isn't that Jackson is Peyton Manning or Joe Montana. The idea is that Jackson's number is being over-scrutinized.

First, it's not that bad, and second - it really doesn't matter that much.

Who was Jackson throwing to this year? His WR's all got hurt.

The player on the other end of a pass actually does have an effect on completion numbers.

I don't think anyone's arguing that he doesn't have some room for improvement, but jeez, people are making it seem like he's the second coming of Tebow. (See what I did there!)

He has an NFL-quality arm. Accuracy isn't his strongest suit but I don't think he's exactly bad at it, and he improved his passing a good bit from last season to this season. I also don't think people quite appreciate how weak the talent he played with at Louisville has been.

My one reservation continues to be usage - if you're going to draft Jackson, you have to build around his strengths. If you pick him and then expect him to play like a traditional NFL pocket passer, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Commit to his skills 100% or pick someone else.

In comment 13772934 RetroJint said:

Quote:

Dunk: I hate making historical comparisons about Jackson because they do seem racially tinged to an uncomfortable degree. However 99% of Giant fans, I am sure, want the best quarterback available to the team. I see RG3 in Jackson. Not Randall , who was a moose. RG3 was extremely talented when he came to the league. He wrecked his knee. He got beat up. He hurt his shoulder . That’s my concern with Jackson.

I agree with you about making historical comparisons about Jackson, both because of the racial undertones as well as the fact that there really hasn't been a player like Jackson before. There have been QBs who have passing numbers that compare to Jackson's, and others who have rushing numbers similar to Jackson's, but really none that are comparable on both fronts.

So my preference is to just analyze the specific elements of Jackson's game that will be important to translate to success at the next level. With that in mind, I think it's fairly safe to say that his athleticism and rushing ability (injury risk notwithstanding) will absolutely translate to the NFL and give him the chance to be a unique weapon from the QB position.

As a passer, his accuracy is a significant concern for me. And the numbers in the aggregate alone aren't great, but also get worse when you dig in a bit deeper.

His accuracy gets worse in each month of the year: 61.5% in September, 57.0% in October, 55.4% in November, 41.7% in December. December is a very small sample size - just three bowl games - but it's also a sample that includes big games against solid competition (all vs. SEC teams).

Could that be representative of his passing getting worse as the weather gets colder? Could it be him pressing as the games get more significant? Could it be a reflection of fatigue over the course of a season because of how much of Louisville's offense runs through him? Could it be a reflection of injuries and/or fatigue within his supporting cast? It could be a combination of any or all of those factors, or it could just be a coincidence.

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His performance vs. specific conferences is interesting as well (listed by total pass attempts):

Against the ACC (23 games, 662 attempts), his career numbers are pretty close to his overall numbers: 56.9% completions, 143.1 rating. The results are scattered - it's not really easy to discern any trends within the opponents. His numbers against Clemson and NC State, for example, are just decent, but he performed well against Florida State and dominated BC, UVa and UNC (though he did complete just 48.7% of his passes at home against BC this past season).

Against the SEC (7 games, 171 attempts), he has pedestrian numbers: 48.5% completions, 118.5 rating, but that does require some context - in addition to the three bowl games mentioned above, he has three games against Kentucky and his first career start, which came against Auburn in 2015. He was mostly good against Kentucky (not great in 2015, pretty good in 2016, excellent this past season; outstanding rushing totals in all three games).

Against the AAC (2 games, 70 attempts), his numbers are also fairly middling: 52.9% completions, 102.1 rating. Interestingly, both games were against Houston and both were losses. Houston was able to bottle up Jackson's running ability (49 yards rushing total in the two games). Is that an indication of what could happen in the NFL if his rushing is schemed against? Two games is not enough to draw any meaningful conclusion about that.

Against CUSA (2 games, 67 attempts), his numbers are really impressive: 61.2% completions, 200.5 rating. Both of these games came in the first month of the 2016 season (season opener 9/1 vs. Charlotte, week 4 9/24 at Marshall) and they were representative of how special Jackson can be when he's at his best - 703 yards passing, 11 TDs, 1 INT; 181 yards rushing, 4 TDs. Level of competition is the flag here, though. Charlotte went 4-8 in 2016, Marshall went 3-9.

Against B1G (1 game, 46 attempts), Jackson played well. Granted, it was the season opener against a so-so Purdue team, but it was still an impressive performance: 65.2% completions, 148.6 rating. He went 30 for 46, 378 yards passing, 2 TDs; 107 yards rushing.

Against MAC (1 game, 22 attempts), Jackson had a very good game: 81.8% completions, 207.8 rating. He went 18 for 22, 299 yards passing, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; 34 yards rushing, 1 TD.

Against "non-majors" (2 games, 48 attempts), he dominated (which is to be expected, but it's a positive that he doesn't play down to his competition): 68.8% completions, 172.8 rating. There's not really a ton to be gleaned from these games because of the competition he played, but he was excellent in both games, with 461 yards passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT; 284 yards rushing, 3 TDs.

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What's the net net? It's tough to say. But overall, Jackson gives me pause due to his sporadic accuracy, his struggles against better competition (such as the SEC) and my questions about what causes his numbers to fade later in the season. He's too talented to write off completely, but I don't know how anyone can speak confidently about his game translating seamlessly to the NFL. He could absolutely become an all-time great - the athletic ability and talent is off the charts. He also could struggle enough as a passer that his offense becomes one-dimensional at the NFL level.

Here are my references:
Career Splits
Career Game Log

Great post and thank you for helping to start getting us below the surface on this possible candidate at #2

Great post. A man that brings data always helps to progress the conversation.

Barkley, thinking he has special abilities. I would love to pair Jackson with him if Jackson fell to the second round. Oline needs to be addressed in FA.

Excellent post. Was a good read.

I absolutely agree that his accuracy is a concern - if Jackson had pinpoint accuracy, he might be one of the greatest prospects ever - so, as with most prospects, he has his flaws.

Some say that Petrino's offense was the reason why he succeeded the way he did. Well, we won't be hiring Petrino himself - but there's no reason why we can't tailor an offense to fit his strengths.

I realize it gets dicey if he gets hurt because then you're likely putting a guy with a much different skillset in his place. But I still believe you can install an offense that can at least somewhat take that into account.

As I've referenced a few times, Tom Savage absolutely sucks - but Houston didn't need to overhaul their entire offense when they replaced him with Watson.

I think Watson is a more accurate passer than Jackson - but I think Jackson can have a similar impact if he's coached correctly. Watson changed everything about that team when he was playing.

Jackson has mechanical things that I think are correctable. He wants to be a passer, though. I think you have to keep his legs in play because you're basically neutering him if you take that away from him - but I'd really cool it with the designed runs or rollouts that leave him exposed to linebackers.

Jackson just has this create-a-player element to his game that can be absolutely lethal. He can buy ludicrous amounts of time with his legs because he's faster than nearly anyone you can send at him.

I want to see him learn to counter blitzes better by identifying hot reads and improving his short/mid-range throws - but if teams want to drop into coverage to confuse him and make him throw into tighter windows, that's fine. Build a team that can run the football with authority and teams won't be able to do that.

The arm strength is not an issue - get guys singled up on post routes downfield and he can drop dimes 40 yards deep with ease.

The frame is on the wiry side - but I think if you get him into an NFL S&C program, they can bulk him up a little bit. Despite this concern, his durability was never a question @ LOU

I very much admit that Jackson has higher bust potential than some of the other guys we're looking at - but I also feel that if he can put it together, he can be brilliant and I'd be willing to gamble on it (just not at 2nd overall)

I think people are afraid about the injury risk - which I understand. But if you want a guy who uses his legs, it's just a part of the deal. I think the onus will be on his coaches to teach him to protect his body - something Russell Wilson has become very good at, while guys like RG3, Luck, and Wentz have failed by playing very recklessly.

Realistically, I don't see NYG taking this player. But I am very interested in watching his career unfold because the potential and wow factor are undeniable.

All talk about let Wheeler gain some weight
bronxgiant : 9:14 am : link : reply
in a Pro setting yet would say Jackson is slight. 20-21 years old and will sit behind Eli and learn the Pro game. Right now kid is 212 lbs. Giants would have an athletic QB game changer to go with Beckum and Engram. Giants have to come into the present and look to the future. Defenders are getting so much faster each year. QB have to have escape ability. Kap, Wilson and Newton have all led teams to the Super Bowl. This kid might be better than all of them. Wont have to hear about Dak Prescott any more either.
I think he is late 1st or 2nd round material

.

is that Jackson wants to throw. Yes, he is an unbelievable runner, but he scrambles looking to throw. Most of his running is by design. He doesn't just give up on right away and take off on passing plays, he scrambles to buy time and keeps looking downfield.

Would rather move down a few spots and grab him but you can’t know he’ll be there.

I’d pull the trigger at 2.

Darnold, Rosen or Jackson at 2 would be fine with me.

In comment 13773648 Greg from LI said:

Quote:

is that Jackson wants to throw. Yes, he is an unbelievable runner, but he scrambles looking to throw. Most of his running is by design. He doesn't just give up on right away and take off on passing plays, he scrambles to buy time and keeps looking downfield.

The people who keep saying he doesn't are the ones who haven't watched him.

There are countless instances of Jackson evading pass rushers, while staying behind the LOS with his eyes downfield because he's trying to throw it.

He doesn't take off as soon as someone gets pressure on him.

He's nowhere near Aaron Rodgers as a passer - but the way Rodgers can be absolutely maddening by dodging pass rushers and buying himself ridiculous amounts of time is something Jackson can do even better.

How many times do you see a free rusher that Rodgers evades or watch him step up into the pocket and then back again, and then roll out to the point where the ends can't figure out a route to get to him?

Jackson does that constantly.

He has to deliver the ball on the money for the play to be effective - but Jackson is the type of guy that makes you absolutely insane when you play against him because every time you think a defender is going to get to him, he gets away.

for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury.

Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.

In comment 13773710 ATL_Giants said:

Quote:

for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury. Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.

His throwing motion is tight and compact. Ball comes out quickly.

Darnold is the one that needs to be cleaned up in a big way.

In comment 13773710 ATL_Giants said:

Quote:

for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury. Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.

I don't really understand the comments about his wind up. He has a pretty quick release.

In comment 13773714 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 13773710 ATL_Giants said: Quote: for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury. Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting. His throwing motion is tight and compact. Ball comes out quickly. Darnold is the one that needs to be cleaned up in a big way.

It's cute how you skip over any statistical analysis.

what's cute is that you think your post is a statistical analysis.

In comment 13773714 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 13773710 ATL_Giants said: Quote: for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury. Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting. His throwing motion is tight and compact. Ball comes out quickly. Darnold is the one that needs to be cleaned up in a big way.

i agree there. darnold is wonky...

In comment 13773727 Go Terps said:

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what's cute is that you think your post is a statistical analysis.

Let's see you take a run at it, champ. Since the sum total of your contribution is cut all players who make any money, install a revolving door at QB and ensure that the Giants remain a single-digit win team in perpetuity.