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Historical reason for not picking a QB high this year

USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 9:24 am

I was just thinking about what teams went from 1 SB winning QB to the next. I came up with the Packers (Favre to Rogers), 49ers (Montana to Young), Giants (Simms to Hostetler), and Redskins (Sort of). That's it. Anyone remember any others?

Rogers was picked by the Packers with the 24th pick in 2005, NOT, the top of the draft. This is probably the closest similarity to the Giants current predicament. Favre and Eli are both iron men that are loved by their fan base. Many believe Aaron Rogers should have been the first picked over Alex Smith that year (clearly). Maybe the Packers lucked into Rogers?

As for Young and the 49ers, he was drafted by the Buccs #1, in the 1984 NFL Supplemental Draft of USFL and CFL Players. The Buccs, thinking Young was a bust and after selecting Vinny Testaverde #1 in 1987, traded Young to the 49ers for a 2nd and 4th round draft pick.

Hoss was on the Giants' already when Simms won the first SB so it's not like they went looking for a QB after that. He was picked #39, Round 3, in 84. His rookie year he was the 3rd string QB behind Simms and Jeff Rutledge.

Redskins went in 1983 with Theisman, in 1988 with Doug Williams, and in 1992 with Mark Rypien. First, there was a QB rotation after Theisman before they picked up Rypien or Williams so they didn't go straight from Theisman to their next QB. Rypian was drafted with the 146th pick in the 1986 draft, round 6. Williams was Rypien's backup in Washington during that 1988 SB. Rypien was injured and Williams had to take over. Williams was originally drafted with the 17th pick of the 1st round in 1978 by the Buccs. Important fact on Williams is that he was the only starting African-American quarterback in the NFL at that time. He switched to the USFL for a couple years and then to the Redskins in 1986. He was also the 1st African-American QB to play in the SB.

Did I miss anyone?

Now let's look at it from the other side. Can Eli still win a SB at his age? Well, 3 QBs have done it. Tom Brady (39), Peyton Manning (39), and John Elway (38). All of them were previous SB winners. One of them is Eli's brother that could have kept playing if not for a bad injury. I think this is why people are saying Eli has a couple more years. Eli Manning just turned 37 last week.

Therefore, historically speaking, picking a QB high this year (especially with such an average QB class) is very unlikely to succeed. I get that Eli is an aging QB and his time is very very short but the Giants shouldn't reach for an heir apparent. They should try and get more picks or take an immediate impact player at #2. Fix the pieces around Eli and you also make it easier on any future QB in the next couple years. I'm hoping they can pick up a high ceiling but low to average floor kind of QB later in the draft. Maybe someone like Lamar Jackson or one of the many others in a later round. Then develop said QB, along with Webb, behind Eli Manning. They will need a good coaching staff that can develop a QB but that can be done. Again, historically speaking, this is a much more likely successful scenario.

I missed it...what's the reason for not picking a QB high this year?  
Jimmy Googs : 1/7/2018 9:26 am : link
.
This draft is not about 2018  
section125 : 1/7/2018 9:27 am : link
in theory. It is about 2019 and later. So not drafting a QB because it would have little in helping playoff chances next year is irrelevant.
Next year is virtually a write off unless the oline is fixed and the WR return healthy.
Rodgers was supposed to go top 10 that year.  
ajr2456 : 1/7/2018 9:37 am : link
.
The QB is near the end.....  
Rafflee : 1/7/2018 9:45 am : link
All factors considered, you still cannot abandon the evidence of his diminished play. Yes...he could still win with a great cast.

If you believe He can win with this cast, I believe your're very wrong...they are more than a Coach Flip away.

All the Win Now Arguments address threading abundant needle eyes perfectly..all at the right time: OL, LB, RB, Specials. I hoped they could compete this year---- 3-13 is what they are. Shocking, But THEY had better have the News...They need a lot of Talent in too many places!

My biggest worry is that the owner will forced them toward a Recycled Approach.
the logic here is  
bluepepper : 1/7/2018 9:46 am : link
that the Cowboys didn't successfully replace Aikman and the Broncos didn't successfully replace Elway so the Giants shouldn't bother trying to replace Eli. Even though the 49ers and Packers did replace their guys.
RE: This draft is not about 2018  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 9:47 am : link
In comment 13775920 section125 said:
Quote:
in theory. It is about 2019 and later. So not drafting a QB because it would have little in helping playoff chances next year is irrelevant.
Next year is virtually a write off unless the oline is fixed and the WR return healthy.

My post said nothing about making the playoffs next year. It's about going from 1 SB winning QB to immediately grabbing the next SB winning QB with a high pick. Historically, it's never been done before. It doesn't matter when the heir apparent QB earns his ring.

Also, I didn't say to not draft a QB. I said don't reach for a QB at #2 in such an average QB draft class. They can take one of the other QBs (one with a high ceiling that needs work) later in the draft. Then that QB can compete with Webb.
Got it now  
Jimmy Googs : 1/7/2018 9:49 am : link
that's logic?
I don't follow the logic  
Mike from Ohio : 1/7/2018 9:49 am : link
Why would the results other teams experienced changing QBs influence what happens to the Giants changing QBs? That may make sense if this were just odds of a random event occurring, but surely it's clear that the selection of QBs and Thor performance in the NFL is not simply a random variable with predictable odds.
RE: the logic here is  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 9:51 am : link
In comment 13775948 bluepepper said:
Quote:
that the Cowboys didn't successfully replace Aikman and the Broncos didn't successfully replace Elway so the Giants shouldn't bother trying to replace Eli. Even though the 49ers and Packers did replace their guys.

The logic here is don't force the pick at #2. Grab one later in the draft or elsewhere to compete with Webb. Historically, reaching for an heir apparent, in an average QB draft class, with a very high pick, doesn't work.
I think we can boil this down to common agreement that  
Jimmy Googs : 1/7/2018 9:53 am : link
no team should force any pick, and particularly not a QB at the top of a draft.

But if there are valuable QBs to be taken and the Giants agree then its not forcing.

Not sure there is more than that...
........  
CoughlinHandsonHips : 1/7/2018 9:56 am : link
Lemme work backwards

Denver - Manning tried to with Paxton Lynch @ pick 26. Settled with 7th round pick Siemen

Colts - Manning to #1 overall all Luck.

Bucs - Brad Johnson to Brian Griese, a FA and former 3rd round pick. I think the plan was 3rd round pick Chris Simms

Ravens - Dilfer to Grbac, big FA acquistion

Rams - Warner to Mark Bulger, a 6th rounder

Broncos - Elway to Griese, 3rd rounder

Packers - Favre to Rodgers, late 1st rounder

If you take a closer look, outside of the Colts, Packers, and Broncos, none of these teams went the 1st round draft route to replace their QBs.

Every other situation is what Gettlemen described as "QB hell." These QBs are talented, no doubt, so you won't crash and burn with them. They aren't superbowl QBs though. They will keep you in that 6-10 to 10-6 range, where it becomes hard to draft that franchise QB.

And of all the superbowl QB situations listed above, our situation most resembles the Colts. Picking at the top of the draft. I'd say behind the Packers, they did best.
RE: RE: the logic here is  
Mike from Ohio : 1/7/2018 10:04 am : link
In comment 13775956 USAF NYG Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 13775948 bluepepper said:


Quote:


that the Cowboys didn't successfully replace Aikman and the Broncos didn't successfully replace Elway so the Giants shouldn't bother trying to replace Eli. Even though the 49ers and Packers did replace their guys.


The logic here is don't force the pick at #2. Grab one later in the draft or elsewhere to compete with Webb. Historically, reaching for an heir apparent, in an average QB draft class, with a very high pick, doesn't work.


According to most draft people this is not an average draft class. You may disagree and that's fine, but I don't think most people would see picking a QB at #2 this year as forcing a pick in an average class.
to replace your QB you need to  
bluepepper : 1/7/2018 10:06 am : link
get another good QB. Merely drafting one high doesn't solve your problem. I'd hope we all know that. We drafted an LT at 9 a few years back and we still need a quality LT. If the Giants rate Rosen, Darnold et al as poor prospects then of course they should pass. But what if at 2 a guy they think is a legit franchise QB is available? Do you pass?
RE: RE: the logic here is  
ajr2456 : 1/7/2018 10:17 am : link
In comment 13775956 USAF NYG Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 13775948 bluepepper said:


Quote:


that the Cowboys didn't successfully replace Aikman and the Broncos didn't successfully replace Elway so the Giants shouldn't bother trying to replace Eli. Even though the 49ers and Packers did replace their guys.


The logic here is don't force the pick at #2. Grab one later in the draft or elsewhere to compete with Webb. Historically, reaching for an heir apparent, in an average QB draft class, with a very high pick, doesn't work.


6 of the 8 QBs playing this weekend were high first rounders. 8 of the 12 were led by a QB who was drafted high. The Giants likely won't be picking this high again. If you believes there is a chance the next franchise QB is there at 2 you have to take it
RE: RE: RE: the logic here is  
GFAN52 : 1/7/2018 10:24 am : link
In comment 13776013 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 13775956 USAF NYG Fan said:


Quote:


In comment 13775948 bluepepper said:


Quote:


that the Cowboys didn't successfully replace Aikman and the Broncos didn't successfully replace Elway so the Giants shouldn't bother trying to replace Eli. Even though the 49ers and Packers did replace their guys.


The logic here is don't force the pick at #2. Grab one later in the draft or elsewhere to compete with Webb. Historically, reaching for an heir apparent, in an average QB draft class, with a very high pick, doesn't work.



6 of the 8 QBs playing this weekend were high first rounders. 8 of the 12 were led by a QB who was drafted high. The Giants likely won't be picking this high again. If you believes there is a chance the next franchise QB is there at 2 you have to take it


Totally agree.
Blue the answer is no!  
Dave on the UWS : 1/7/2018 10:24 am : link
If DG rates one or more of these QBs as a first line guy then that's the pick. Further mot if he has a strong conviction on one (like Accorsi did on Eli) he will do whatever he needs to to get that guy. Don't be surprised at a move up to #1.
RE: RE: RE: the logic here is  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 10:27 am : link
In comment 13775986 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:

According to most draft people this is not an average draft class. You may disagree and that's fine, but I don't think most people would see picking a QB at #2 this year as forcing a pick in an average class.

Not doubting you here but who's saying this draft class is good. I'm not seeing that at all. I'm seeing the opposite. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and that's fine. I believe it's an average draft class because that's what I have been reading and have seen.

I've read a couple scouts refer to Rosen as an entitled A-Hole and think the 2 concussions make for 2 huge red flags. Outside of that, he probably has the best shot at becoming a franchise worthy QB.

Draft analyst Dan Kadar said, "I think the class is going to get overdrafted. (Josh) Rosen is good. Kinda like Matt Ryan. Darnold is risky -- he can look great and is clutch but he makes some really bad decisions. I think he needs another year. (Baker) Mayfield is solid and fun but risky. (Ryan) Finley at NC State is Kirk Cousins. Lamar Jackson needs another year.”
Historically no QB  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2018 10:30 am : link
born in Maine has won a Super Bowl, so the Giants should avoid them too.

because the odds say that because none has won a Super Bowl, none will.

I like the way you think USAF NYG Fan.

Between us, if people in positions to pay attention do pay attention we will help them avoid disaster.
Well, we're good because we already went  
TheMick7 : 1/7/2018 10:31 am : link
from Eli to Geno so whoever we draft won't have history hanging over his head! :)
RE: RE: This draft is not about 2018  
section125 : 1/7/2018 10:47 am : link
In comment 13775949 USAF NYG Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 13775920 section125 said:


Quote:


in theory. It is about 2019 and later. So not drafting a QB because it would have little in helping playoff chances next year is irrelevant.
Next year is virtually a write off unless the oline is fixed and the WR return healthy.


My post said nothing about making the playoffs next year. It's about going from 1 SB winning QB to immediately grabbing the next SB winning QB with a high pick. Historically, it's never been done before. It doesn't matter when the heir apparent QB earns his ring.

Also, I didn't say to not draft a QB. I said don't reach for a QB at #2 in such an average QB draft class. They can take one of the other QBs (one with a high ceiling that needs work) later in the draft. Then that QB can compete with Webb.


Ok, not the way it comes across. Sounds like you are pushing for not drafting a QB.

It isn't often a team gets to have its choice of QBs high in the draft, especially when soon to be replacing a SB MVP and winning QB.
Despite some of the BS coming out, a few of these guys will be good QBs, and if you already have a Davis Webb, why bother picking a 2nd Davis Webb later in the draft just to see who is the better mediocre QB (not saying Webb is mediocre, we just don't know). I'm not saying they have to pick a QB, but the best place to get a good QB is high in the draft.
RE: Historically no QB  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 10:52 am : link
In comment 13776035 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
born in Maine has won a Super Bowl, so the Giants should avoid them too.

because the odds say that because none has won a Super Bowl, none will.

No people shouldn't pick a QB from Maine because, well, it's Maine. :)
Of your three QBs who won championships at advanced ages  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/7/2018 10:59 am : link
Two of them were carried, one by an all-time defense and one by a dominant running offense.

And Brady might as well be an alien. You can't really pin his example on anyone else.
I agree to several counter points here  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 11:00 am : link
1. The best chance to get a great QB is high in the draft. Very true. If the Giants think the person is legit, then by all means.

2. My opinion that it's an average draft class may be incorrect or that the draft analysts disagree. I haven't seen that to be the case but maybe I'm reading the wrong reports.

All I am saying is, like the title says, history says it will not work to draft a QB with the 2nd pick. I'm not saying they shouldn't draft a QB, just not with the #2 pick. Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it. However, if Gettleman chooses to go with a QB at #2, I will support it. I think it's a mistake but I'd love him to prove me wrong.
RE: I agree to several counter points here  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/7/2018 11:04 am : link
In comment 13776080 USAF NYG Fan said:
Quote:

All I am saying is, like the title says, history says it will not work to draft a QB with the 2nd pick.


I'm not clear what you're saying isn't going to work. Are you arguing that highly drafted QBs don't win?
We  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 1/7/2018 11:06 am : link
can (and will) endlessly debate this, but at the end of the day it depends on how the Giants grade these QBs.

If they feel a franchise QB is there then they will undoubtedly pick him, if not then they wont. It's that simple.

On a related note, I have a bunch that DG will fall in love with Chubb? Would he take him at 2? Maybe not, but if they don't take a QB I think Chubb might be more likely than Barkley for better or worse.

I don't think you need to wait for DG  
Jimmy Googs : 1/7/2018 11:07 am : link
to prove that...
RE: Of your three QBs who won championships at advanced ages  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 11:13 am : link
In comment 13776076 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
Two of them were carried, one by an all-time defense and one by a dominant running offense.

And Brady might as well be an alien. You can't really pin his example on anyone else.

Elway went to the Pro Bowl his final two seasons, won the SB his final two seasons, and the SB MVP his final year because of the run game? Elway had nothing to do with that? Even if true, that sounds like an argument to focus on fixing the OL and run game to me.

Peyton I'll give you but I feel he was still an above average QB at the end. No longer what he was sure, but still better than most.
History shows teams that win the superbowl  
Mike from Ohio : 1/7/2018 11:22 am : link
And consistently go to the playoffs do so with a QB drafted high in the first round. The Patriots are an exception to that. I am not sure what logic supports drafting a QB high is a bad idea. Yes, some become busts. That happens with every position. That doesn't mean you don't pick one if you have a conviction on one.
RE: RE: Of your three QBs who won championships at advanced ages  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/7/2018 11:24 am : link
In comment 13776099 USAF NYG Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 13776076 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


Two of them were carried, one by an all-time defense and one by a dominant running offense.

And Brady might as well be an alien. You can't really pin his example on anyone else.


Elway went to the Pro Bowl his final two seasons, won the SB his final two seasons, and the SB MVP his final year because of the run game? Elway had nothing to do with that? Even if true, that sounds like an argument to focus on fixing the OL and run game to me.


I did not say he had 'nothing' to do with it. Terrell Davis is in the hall of fame despite only starting for four years. There's a very good reason for that.
RE: RE: RE: Of your three QBs who won championships at advanced ages  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 11:32 am : link
In comment 13776117 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:

I did not say he had 'nothing' to do with it. Terrell Davis is in the hall of fame despite only starting for four years. There's a very good reason for that.

That's fair!
2009 where it went bad  
Reale01 : 1/7/2018 11:36 am : link
The Giants blew the 2009 draft that could have set them up for years to come. Trading down from #2 will allow us another shot at stocking the roster.

The Giants had a #1, two #2, two #3, #4, two #5, #6, #7.

Could have drafted had all of the following:

Nicks
Max Unger
T Knighton
L Webb
TJ Lang
Jason McCourty
Zack Miller

Not always gonna make the BEST pick in retrospect but three of our top 5 picks were Epic Busts.

Nicks - Good pick until injured
Sintim - Epic bust
Beatty - Decent pick
Barden - Epic Bust
T Beckham - Epic Bust


Link - ( New Window )
The 49ers went back and forth that year  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2018 11:57 am : link
Between Smith and Rodgers. Rodgers was almost the first overall pick but then he fell much farther than projected. There were quite a few issues with Rodgers. He came from a spread offense and he had to alter his throwing motion.
RE: The QB is near the end.....  
Gman11 : 1/7/2018 12:09 pm : link
In comment 13775945 Rafflee said:
Quote:
All factors considered, you still cannot abandon the evidence of his diminished play. Yes...he could still win with a great cast.


I think every QB in the league can win with a great cast. The best example of that is Dak Prescott.
RE: Historically no QB  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/7/2018 12:09 pm : link
In comment 13776035 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
born in Maine has won a Super Bowl, so the Giants should avoid them too.

because the odds say that because none has won a Super Bowl, none will.

I like the way you think USAF NYG Fan.

Between us, if people in positions to pay attention do pay attention we will help them avoid disaster.

Some more important historical facts:

- No QB born after 1988 has ever won a Super Bowl. All of the QBs in this year's draft were born after 1988, therefore none of them will win a Super Bowl.

- No QB born in July has ever won a Super Bowl. Fortunately, none of the top prospects this year were born in July, so we don't have to worry too much about it, but it's something we need to keep a close eye on in future years.

- Quarterbacks with a first name that begins with the letter J have won 14 Super Bowls, the most of any letter (T is second with 13, B is third with eight). That's promising for Josh Rosen and Josh Allen, and - to a lesser extent - Baker Mayfield. Only one QB whose first name starts with S (Steve Young) has ever won a Super Bowl, but his given first name is actually Jon (Steven is his middle name), so you can eliminate Sam Darnold.

You can't fight history, folks. The OP is onto something here.
OP  
Lefty : 1/7/2018 12:24 pm : link
has no idea what the word correlation means.
RE: RE: Historically no QB  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/7/2018 12:26 pm : link
In comment 13776183 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 13776035 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


born in Maine has won a Super Bowl, so the Giants should avoid them too.

because the odds say that because none has won a Super Bowl, none will.

I like the way you think USAF NYG Fan.

Between us, if people in positions to pay attention do pay attention we will help them avoid disaster.


Some more important historical facts:

- No QB born after 1988 has ever won a Super Bowl. All of the QBs in this year's draft were born after 1988, therefore none of them will win a Super Bowl.

- No QB born in July has ever won a Super Bowl. Fortunately, none of the top prospects this year were born in July, so we don't have to worry too much about it, but it's something we need to keep a close eye on in future years.

- Quarterbacks with a first name that begins with the letter J have won 14 Super Bowls, the most of any letter (T is second with 13, B is third with eight). That's promising for Josh Rosen and Josh Allen, and - to a lesser extent - Baker Mayfield. Only one QB whose first name starts with S (Steve Young) has ever won a Super Bowl, but his given first name is actually Jon (Steven is his middle name), so you can eliminate Sam Darnold.

You can't fight history, folks. The OP is onto something here.

The Straw Man Fallacy coupled with sarcasm. Nice. I found it quite entertaining. From both of you. Keep them coming!
There are many of ways of looking at this  
RetroJint : 1/7/2018 12:39 pm : link
What can be said without qualification is that the majority of quarterbacks taken early fail to meet the difficult-to-describe “franchise” designation . For example do Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco qualify as “franchise” quarterbacks ? I say no.

But don’t you want to try ? Passing stats are glamored in today’s game,no question. Frankly they don’t mean shit, witness Alex Smith. But the Giants have to stake their claim . This is their best shot . The Rams seemed to hit it with Goff. And how long has it been since Eli was truly worthy of being called a franchise quarterback ?

My definition: 1. Raises the play of those around him. 2. Wins games by dint of his own skill set. 3. Brings his team from behind to win games. 4. Doesn’t lose games single handedly with Asshole Joe decisions like throwing the ball right to the Redskin sub linebacker .

Brees lost 3 seasons in a row . I do consider him to be franchise so it’s not like you are disqualified if your team has a losing record . But for my money in roday’s game their are truly 4 franchise quarterbacks : 1. Rodgers. 2. Brady. 3.Brees. 4. Wilson .
If Matt Ryan  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2018 12:47 pm : link
doesn't meet someone's criteria of a Franchise QB then you may as well never draft another QB because almost all will be disappointing based on some unreal set of expectations.

RE: There are many of ways of looking at this  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/7/2018 12:53 pm : link
In comment 13776239 RetroJint said:
Quote:
What can be said without qualification is that the majority of quarterbacks taken early fail to meet the difficult-to-describe “franchise” designation . For example do Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco qualify as “franchise” quarterbacks ? I say no.

But don’t you want to try ? Passing stats are glamored in today’s game,no question. Frankly they don’t mean shit, witness Alex Smith. But the Giants have to stake their claim . This is their best shot . The Rams seemed to hit it with Goff. And how long has it been since Eli was truly worthy of being called a franchise quarterback ?

My definition: 1. Raises the play of those around him. 2. Wins games by dint of his own skill set. 3. Brings his team from behind to win games. 4. Doesn’t lose games single handedly with Asshole Joe decisions like throwing the ball right to the Redskin sub linebacker .

Brees lost 3 seasons in a row . I do consider him to be franchise so it’s not like you are disqualified if your team has a losing record . But for my money in roday’s game their are truly 4 franchise quarterbacks : 1. Rodgers. 2. Brady. 3.Brees. 4. Wilson .

Matt Ryan has an NFL MVP and a Super Bowl appearance on his resume and ranks 7th among active QBs in passing yards (16th all-time), 8th among active QBs in passing TDs (18th all-time), 8th among active QBs in career passer rating (12th all-time). He's only 32. He's got a chance to finish in the top 3-5 all-time in yards and TDs.

He's absolutely a franchise QB, and it's silly to suggest otherwise.
Franchise QB is best described as the Franchise has no need  
Jimmy Googs : 1/7/2018 12:55 pm : link
to upgrade the existing QB based on his talent level.

In almost all cases though, Franchise QBs cease being franchise QBs at some point...


gneral problem with this board is that some  
mdc1 : 1/8/2018 5:02 am : link
have the same mentality as our owners, continue thinking just adjusting something here or there will be all that is necessary. We are at the bottom and it is now time to clean the Aegean stables largely due to incompetence and arrogance and this kind of "just get by" strategy. The league gets better and we live in the f'ing past. Eli is largely done very soon, we have great risk in front of us right now and if not dealt with properly at the QB position we will live what the Redskins have lived for many years. They figured that out only several seasons ago when they got a taste of winning with RG3 and Cousins, before that they were a disaster and managed that position horribly as do other teams. When was the last time you saw a bum at QB holding the SB trophy?

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