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NFT: NHL Season: Approximately Halfway Done - Discussion

pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 9:35 am
NHL season is at or past the midpoint for all teams.

Just wanted a general discussion thread to talk about surprises (good and bad), trade talk, and even the Olympics if people want.

Just some of my thoughts:

Surprises (good):

LVG: I still don't see how they're this good, especially after losing MAF for so long. I think they have mostly 3rd line forwards (Marchessault excepted), solid D and MAF, but somehow they're #1 in the west with games in hand on their closest competition.

I am stubborn and still believe they'll be exposed but it's a good story while it lasts and I think the "Vegas flu" for opposing teams won't be a thing in the playoffs (18 - 2 - 1 at home is ridiculous - especially for an expansion team with no hockey history).

WPG: one of the most fun teams in the league to watch, loaded with skilled youth if they are smart this could be what Edmonton was hoping to build around McDavid. They lost Scheifele for a while but didn't miss a beat (yet) because Laine, Ehlers, Connor (all under 21 playing top 6 minutes) are THAT good and Wheeler is a solid leader as is Perreault. Good D and Helleybuck playing like a starting goalie. They're like last year's Leafs with better goalie, better D and better veterans.

TB most people knew last season isn't what the Lightning really were, but they've been the class of the NHL 1st half. Solid in all areas, they are the cup favorite at the halfway point. Can they stay healthy?

BOS so this isn't really "good" from my standpoint as a Habs fan, but the Bruins have the unquestioned best line in the NHL IMO right now. Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak have been on absolute fire lately. I can't remember a line clicking so well since Lemieux, Jagr and Ron Francis (or substitute Kevin Stevens on occasion). Their D is surprising though more than the O McAvoy has turned heads and sub 20 years old is logging top pair D minutes and thriving. Kevan Miller looks like a completely different skater, Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk both solid, still hate Torey Krug, and Chara is a fossil, but as a unit their D is MUCH better than a year ago.


Surprises: (Bad)

EDM: last year's "a year before expected" playoff appearance and series win (and 2nd round game 7 loss) probably set this bar a little too high, but they're playing so bad it's likely to cost people some jobs. Giving away Taylor Hall for a barely top 4 D is likely to start the beheading with Chiarelli but I think it extends beyond him.

It would be a shame if McDavid will remain buried in siberia for his whole career.

PIT: Is this the year that protecting Malkin, Crosby and Kessel proves too much to overcome? I'll never count the Penguins out until they're eliminated, but Matt Murray has looked pedestrian, their D is in shambles and they're not getting the top line scoring to accommodate.

Almost 33% of the salary cap is tied up on 3 forwards, I haven't done any research but I would be surprised if another team has more (besides CHI). And that's with Crosby on a below-market deal.

CHI See PIT, keeping together Kane and Toews is costly if you don't have enough youth, low $$ players that provide some production. For some reason they traded Panarin for Saad and Saad costs $6M and so does Panarin, but that 12 pts difference could be the difference in a few wins. Never understood that trade. CHI isn't awful, they have a positive goal differential and are hovering around a playoff spot, but they're not playing great hockey like you'd expect from a mostly veteran team. I like debrincat.

Honorable mention surprises (good): NJD, NYI, STL, LAK
Honorable mention surprises (bad): MTL, OTT, BUF

Some players I've noticed:

Johnny Gaudreau, I still say if you can get the NHL Center Ice package it's worth it for Johnny alone. He's about as smart a hockey player as I've seen since Datsyuk was in his prime.

Kucherov, no comment really necessary, he was always good, now he's taking it to another level

Kopitar, so bad last year, I wondered if he was playing through injury, I haven't heard anything that says he was, but he's back to his normal, dominant, two-way center self this year

Tavares: he's going to make a lot of money

A lot of hockey left, would love to hear others thoughts.


I'll get to trade talk later. lots of rumors/discussion including Evander Kane, Pacioretty, and more.

Buffalo is a big surprise  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 9:39 am : link
I didn't think they'd be a good team, exactly, but they have way too much talent to be the dregs of the East. They should be at least .500ish.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2018 9:39 am : link
Team with the best top six in the league is in last place in the Metro. Shocking.

I have to think Tavares leaves at year end, but I don't see a great fit for him.

Outside of TB, everyone looks really flawed. I'm still high on WAS.
RE: Buffalo is a big surprise  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 9:47 am : link
In comment 13777775 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
I didn't think they'd be a good team, exactly, but they have way too much talent to be the dregs of the East. They should be at least .500ish.


I have the Sabres as honorable mention bad. Like you I didn't expect them to be good, but -51 goal differential? ouch, that's Coyotes like (who I expected to be that bad).

Lehner is not a #1 NHL goalie. And he's just part of their problems.

RE: ....  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 9:49 am : link
In comment 13777776 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Team with the best top six in the league is in last place in the Metro. Shocking.

I have to think Tavares leaves at year end, but I don't see a great fit for him.

Outside of TB, everyone looks really flawed. I'm still high on WAS.


I think the Kings could be the least flawed of the non Lightning teams. Not a high powered offense, but so sound defensively and in net, plus they're not bankrupt of skill guys.
Montreal fan like you  
snickers : 1/8/2018 9:52 am : link
The Habs are disappointing but not unexpectedly so. Management has been slow to embrace a makeover hoping that tweaking would somehow suffice. I think it all began with giving away Subban and has degenerated since.
We are a soft team, do not battle hard and hate outworking an opponent. I blame management for poor drafts and lack of talent on the farm team but also think Julien was the wrong hire for this club. We need to look more like Winnipeg and Toronto before we will be better, Price notwithstanding.
Gotta have the Devils as a good surprise, no  
jlukes : 1/8/2018 9:52 am : link
?
Rangers need to be sellers  
Lowell : 1/8/2018 9:55 am : link
before the trade deadline. Even if they make the playoffs, I doubt they can get near the cup. Letting Nash and Grabner walk for nothing would be a bad idea. With an aging goalie and a weak prospect pool it's time to rebuild.
RE: Montreal fan like you  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 9:55 am : link
In comment 13777797 snickers said:
Quote:
The Habs are disappointing but not unexpectedly so. Management has been slow to embrace a makeover hoping that tweaking would somehow suffice. I think it all began with giving away Subban and has degenerated since.
We are a soft team, do not battle hard and hate outworking an opponent. I blame management for poor drafts and lack of talent on the farm team but also think Julien was the wrong hire for this club. We need to look more like Winnipeg and Toronto before we will be better, Price notwithstanding.


Agree mostly, but a team with Carey Price, Shea Weber, Pacioretty, Drouin, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, etc. should be solidly middle of the playoff pack, not staring a top 5 pick in the face.

Almost everyone picked the Canadiens as a playoff team in 2018.

I didn't think they'd be dominant unless some of the younger guys blew up (like Lehkonen, Hudon, etc.) but no one has played above expectations including the awful start Carey Price had.

So, that's why I had them honorable mention bad surprise.

Not shocking, but definitely worse than I expected.
Agree with the list mainly  
Stu11 : 1/8/2018 9:58 am : link
Buffalo has been bad. The Devs I now believe will make the playoffs even with this bad stretch. You can't lose games in a more excruciating fashion. with a 5 day break I think they'll catch their breath. I mean they've had a 2 go ahead goals in the 3rd dissalowed, another goal wiped out yesterday, and have lost 2 shootouts and an OT in the 5 game losing streak so its not like they are being blown out of buildings. The pens will recover to make it probably. I think the 5 teams make it from the Metro If I had to pick I'd say-Wash/Colum/Pitt/NJD/NYR
Tampa is legit. Don't know quite what to make of Boston. We'll see. Chicago and Pitt have been real head scratchers and what Vegas has done has been simply unprecedented not only in Hockey, but the 4 major sports' history.
The Flyers are a schizo team  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/8/2018 9:59 am : link
lose 10 straight, win seven straight (opposite of last year). Best news is that Coutourier has become a top-line center, and Provorov is just a stud defenseman.
RE: Gotta have the Devils as a good surprise, no  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 9:59 am : link
In comment 13777798 jlukes said:
Quote:
?


I have them as honorable mention good. At the quarter mark they were my #1 surprise.

their rookies have settled in a little bit Bratt (2 goals since 12/1), Hischier (3 goals since 12/1), Butcher (-6 since Thanksgiving) - all after torrid starts.

Still a surprise, but not quite as surprising at this point after their great start.

And this is just my opinion.
RE: The Flyers are a schizo team  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2018 10:10 am : link
In comment 13777815 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:
Quote:
lose 10 straight, win seven straight (opposite of last year). Best news is that Coutourier has become a top-line center, and Provorov is just a stud defenseman.


I recall Coutourier's ceiling being criticized when he was picked - it's another example of some of the criticism of the Rangers' Andersson pick being silly.

Hextall's done a great job in PHI.
Vegas is a great story  
Jay on the Island : 1/8/2018 10:11 am : link
Their forwards are having career years. Their goaltending has been excellent between MAF, Subban, and Dansk. Subban appears to have finally broken out. He will battle with Dansk to see who is the heir to Fleury in goal. Looks like the Bruins made a mistake giving up on him. The Karlsson, Marchessault, Smith line has been one of the best in hockey.
RE: RE: The Flyers are a schizo team  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 10:13 am : link
In comment 13777833 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 13777815 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:


Quote:


lose 10 straight, win seven straight (opposite of last year). Best news is that Coutourier has become a top-line center, and Provorov is just a stud defenseman.



I recall Coutourier's ceiling being criticized when he was picked - it's another example of some of the criticism of the Rangers' Andersson pick being silly.

Hextall's done a great job in PHI.


Who criticized Andersson? I loved the pick.
Few Things  
Rover : 1/8/2018 10:15 am : link
1) Bruins. Are they really this good, did they really just rebuild that fast on the fly OR is this a surprise season like we have seen from other teams in years past (Colorado a few seasons ago, Dallas, Edmonton), that will regress to the mean next season?

2) Caps. God are they annoying. When are they ever going to have to deal with major injuries and not be the most healthy team in the league, and when are they finally going to suck in the regular season.
Jesus it is SO annoying seeing them leading the division again.
Aren't they due to slide to a low 8 seed or out from the playoffs soon?

3) Pens. Disagree about the cap space. It's no more a factor this season than last, in fact it may be less since MAF and his cap are gone.
It looks like phsyical/mental fatigue.
Hopefully, a trade for a 3C, platonning Jarry to push Murray, and Sprong/Simon help.

4) Rangers...might be a bridge year, which if they make the playoffs than get Andersson and Chertyl next year would be great.

5) Vegas. Dude I'm telling you EVERYTIME there is a tragedy it seems the team in that city impacted rallies.
-Houston Astros 2017; Red Sox and Bruins (and even Celtics) 2013; Yankees 2001.


Vegas
RE: RE: RE: The Flyers are a schizo team  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 10:16 am : link
In comment 13777849 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Who criticized Andersson? I loved the pick.


Eh....at the time I was a bit underwhelmed with the pick.
.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2018 10:21 am : link
Quote:
So we have comps to Jesper Fast and Chris Kunitz
Greg from LI : 6/23/2017 7:55 pm : link
Just the guys who leap to mind as high first round talents


Quote:
Jesus...this week has been just brutal for MSG and its tenants
Greg from LI : 6/23/2017 8:02 pm : link
Don't know anything about this guy but these scouting reports and reactions are anything but reassuring.

This sounds exactly like the way Manny Malhotra was described when the Rangers drafted him about two rounds too high.


There were others, but Greg's easy and more fun to pick on.*

*Not that he's wrong (yet)
NHL Draft - ( New Window )
agree with Lowell  
JonC : 1/8/2018 10:25 am : link
sell, sellllll!!!
hey, at least I copped to it!  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 10:26 am : link
I've come around a fair bit on Andersson.
and reading that archived thread  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 10:28 am : link
I'm hardly the only Nostradumbass:

Quote:
.
arcarsenal : 6/27/2017 2:15 pm : link

I mean, COL was just a 48 point team this past year and they had guys like MacKinnon and Duchene. Obviously a hugely flawed roster but I think the VGK roster might be even worse.

I don't see VGK exceeding 40 points by much. I think they're going to be horrendous. Their blue line is so bad. James Neal is probably the best player on the entire team.


VGK sitting this morning @ 60 points.
RE: Few Things  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 10:30 am : link
In comment 13777855 Rover said:
Quote:
1) Bruins. Are they really this good, did they really just rebuild that fast on the fly OR is this a surprise season like we have seen from other teams in years past (Colorado a few seasons ago, Dallas, Edmonton), that will regress to the mean next season?

2) Caps. God are they annoying. When are they ever going to have to deal with major injuries and not be the most healthy team in the league, and when are they finally going to suck in the regular season.
Jesus it is SO annoying seeing them leading the division again.
Aren't they due to slide to a low 8 seed or out from the playoffs soon?

3) Pens. Disagree about the cap space. It's no more a factor this season than last, in fact it may be less since MAF and his cap are gone.
It looks like phsyical/mental fatigue.
Hopefully, a trade for a 3C, platonning Jarry to push Murray, and Sprong/Simon help.

4) Rangers...might be a bridge year, which if they make the playoffs than get Andersson and Chertyl next year would be great.

5) Vegas. Dude I'm telling you EVERYTIME there is a tragedy it seems the team in that city impacted rallies.
-Houston Astros 2017; Red Sox and Bruins (and even Celtics) 2013; Yankees 2001.


Vegas


3) Penguins lost Kunitz, Bonino, Daley plus MAF, who while inconsistent was as good as it gets when he was good, but the flip side was he was pretty terrible far too often. Nonetheless, he's a loss. and they didn't have many additions - plus they've had injuries like Schultz.

5) at least you didn't add Katrina like that silly meme did. Wait, why didn't the Saints get to win after Katrina? Why didn't the Magic win after the Pulse shooting? the Yankees lost in 2001. The Bruins lost in 2013 as did the Celtics.

#5 is a ridiculously silly argument.
I dont understand NYI being honorable mention good  
MetsAreBack : 1/8/2018 10:32 am : link
They are last in the Metro and out of playoff position. Barzal having a great year, but that's more than offset by their truly awful goaltending situation.

Obviously the division remains pretty tight with only Washington starting to provide some separation (7 "ROW" by winning a 3-on-3 skills competition plus another 3 shootout wins helps greatly... shakes head...)

So plenty of time to flip the script
RE: and reading that archived thread  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 10:32 am : link
In comment 13777888 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
I'm hardly the only Nostradumbass:



Quote:


.
arcarsenal : 6/27/2017 2:15 pm : link

I mean, COL was just a 48 point team this past year and they had guys like MacKinnon and Duchene. Obviously a hugely flawed roster but I think the VGK roster might be even worse.

I don't see VGK exceeding 40 points by much. I think they're going to be horrendous. Their blue line is so bad. James Neal is probably the best player on the entire team.



VGK sitting this morning @ 60 points.


I thought Vegas would be historically bad. I still don't see how they're this good. I pointed out the Vegas flu, (18 - 2 - 1) at home for a team who should really have no home ice advantage, or just a small comfort one.
RE: and reading that archived thread  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2018 10:33 am : link
In comment 13777888 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
I'm hardly the only Nostradumbass:



Quote:


.
arcarsenal : 6/27/2017 2:15 pm : link

I mean, COL was just a 48 point team this past year and they had guys like MacKinnon and Duchene. Obviously a hugely flawed roster but I think the VGK roster might be even worse.

I don't see VGK exceeding 40 points by much. I think they're going to be horrendous. Their blue line is so bad. James Neal is probably the best player on the entire team.



VGK sitting this morning @ 60 points.



Hahaha.

I think VGK and this year's Giants are the two teams I've ever been most wrong about. I thought VGK was going to be bottom five for sure.
But seriously....Vegas has to start coming down to earth soon  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 10:34 am : link
William Karlsson: 18 goals in 183 NHL games coming into this season, 22 in 41 games this season

Erik Haula: 15 goals in 72 games in Minnesota last season, 15 goals in 37 games this season.

Reilly Smith: 11-24-35 in 41 games this year after 15-22-37 in 80 games in Florida.


Etc, etc.
RE: I dont understand NYI being honorable mention good  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 10:37 am : link
In comment 13777899 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
They are last in the Metro and out of playoff position. Barzal having a great year, but that's more than offset by their truly awful goaltending situation.

Obviously the division remains pretty tight with only Washington starting to provide some separation (7 "ROW" by winning a 3-on-3 skills competition plus another 3 shootout wins helps greatly... shakes head...)

So plenty of time to flip the script


I thought they'd be worse and trade Tavares by the deadline, and as bad as they are in the standings it's so bunched up, they're one win out of playoff position.
Vegas has like 6 or 7 guys playing far beyond anything they've ever  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 10:39 am : link
done at the NHL level. It can't last.
I don't know about other sports  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 10:45 am : link
but hockey players are notorious drinkers (in season) and most coaches I don't believe have a policy on curfews or anything like that, since most games are at night.

I would not be shocked, even a little, if teams were taking advantage of all that Vegas has to offer and it's impacting their play.

I do believe the Vegas flu is real, and I think it's probably temporary, though not sure it's temporary.

still doesn't explain all their success, but I'm not a huge fan of their GM, and am indifferent on Gallant, I don't think either is the main catalyst behind their results.
No, me either  
Greg from LI : 1/8/2018 10:47 am : link
If Gerald Gallant was some kind of genius coach, he sure hid it well in Florida and Columbus.
.  
Kyle in NY : 1/8/2018 11:07 am : link
I have to believe Vegas has a lot of players that are tremendously motivated

Either pending UFAs that are playing for their next contracts (Neal, Perron, etc). Or young guys that have talent but were maybe underutilized and then left unprotected by their former teams and now they have a lot to prove. Guys like Haula, Karlsson, Marchessault, and Smith. There's a lot of motivation there to prove their old teams wrong.

We'll see if that lasts beyond this season. But that has to play a big role. They also got a legit up and coming top pair defenseman from the Caps in Nate Schmidt (he was impressive last night) and Flordia screwed up the expansion draft about as bad as one team possibly could. That helped
Gallant did a good job in Florida  
Kyle in NY : 1/8/2018 11:10 am : link
They should have beaten the Islanders in the playoffs two seasons ago after a 100 point season. Then he got a quick hook from new management that's been proven to be in a bit over their heads since then.

Got to imagine he feels like he has a lot to prove as well. I do buy into the Vegas flu too. It's been a bit of a perfect combination of multiple factors leading to this. They're on a 120 point pace, unreal.
RE: RE: Few Things  
Rover : 1/8/2018 12:14 pm : link
In comment 13777895 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13777855 Rover said:


Quote:


1) Bruins. Are they really this good, did they really just rebuild that fast on the fly OR is this a surprise season like we have seen from other teams in years past (Colorado a few seasons ago, Dallas, Edmonton), that will regress to the mean next season?

2) Caps. God are they annoying. When are they ever going to have to deal with major injuries and not be the most healthy team in the league, and when are they finally going to suck in the regular season.
Jesus it is SO annoying seeing them leading the division again.
Aren't they due to slide to a low 8 seed or out from the playoffs soon?

3) Pens. Disagree about the cap space. It's no more a factor this season than last, in fact it may be less since MAF and his cap are gone.
It looks like phsyical/mental fatigue.
Hopefully, a trade for a 3C, platonning Jarry to push Murray, and Sprong/Simon help.

4) Rangers...might be a bridge year, which if they make the playoffs than get Andersson and Chertyl next year would be great.

5) Vegas. Dude I'm telling you EVERYTIME there is a tragedy it seems the team in that city impacted rallies.
-Houston Astros 2017; Red Sox and Bruins (and even Celtics) 2013; Yankees 2001.


Vegas



3) Penguins lost Kunitz, Bonino, Daley plus MAF, who while inconsistent was as good as it gets when he was good, but the flip side was he was pretty terrible far too often. Nonetheless, he's a loss. and they didn't have many additions - plus they've had injuries like Schultz.

5) at least you didn't add Katrina like that silly meme did. Wait, why didn't the Saints get to win after Katrina? Why didn't the Magic win after the Pulse shooting? the Yankees lost in 2001. The Bruins lost in 2013 as did the Celtics.

#5 is a ridiculously silly argument.

They miss playoff Bonnino, not Oct-March Bonnino.
They miss Cullen more, but that was not due to the cap.
Kunitz was pretty much toast.
Hunwick has been a poor replacement for Daley, but Maata has improved.

Jarry has been as good this year for the Pens reg season as Fleury was last year, so again, it is NOT the cap.

Also, Saints had to relocate during 2005 as opposed to other teams facing local issues but not having their venue disrupted.
But nice try trying to nitpick.
If you fail to acknowledge the Penguins  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2018 12:36 pm : link
are hindered by having 33% of their cap on 3 forwards then we should just agree to disagree. In the past those three forwards have been so good and they have gotten contributions from other players that aren't highly paid to make up for it, but so far this year neither is really happening, but those three probably still have a higher % of their teams offense than almost any other team, combine it with shoddy goaltending and it explains why the pens are hovering around playoff contention.

a lot of time to change this and I think they will, but what I see on the ice when I watch the Penguins isn't fatigue it's a team getting inconsistent goaltending and not much contribution from the bottom of the roster forwards.

and as for your #5, you said this:

Quote:
...EVERYTIME there is a tragedy it seems the team in that city impacted rallies....


It's so selective and false I'm not going to dignify it with any further response than this one. Have there been coincidental instances where a team does well in a city where there has been a recent tragedy or incident, sure, but "EVERYTIME" - that's ludicrous internet meme crap.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2018 12:40 pm : link
Quote:
...EVERYTIME there is a tragedy it seems the team in that city impacted rallies....


The Browns have to play in Cleveland, and they've never rallied over that tragedy.
I want the parade  
Ben in Tampa : 1/8/2018 1:34 pm : link
.
RE: I want the parade  
pjcas18 : 1/10/2018 11:55 am : link
In comment 13778345 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
.


Maybe for the All-star game. Seriously, if you've never been and have an opportunity to go, a lot of the NHL all-star game events are a lot of fun.
This is not the spirit  
pjcas18 : 1/10/2018 11:58 am : link
of the offsides rule and IMO it's hurting the game.

No goal.

I'm not even going to touch whether or not this player impacts the goal, that is and should be irrelevant. Offsides is about going over the blue line before the puck to gain an advantage and whether or not the player is actually involved in the goal is irrelevant to whether or not the referee blows his whistle. If someone is offsides blow the whistle. If you need to freeze frame a video to see if a back skate is off the ice you're defeating the purpose of the rule. If that skate is being dragged = onsides, what advantage does the player get for that skate being raised?

I don't know why they don't change it to one of two absolutes  
Greg from LI : 1/10/2018 12:00 pm : link
Either make it illegal to have any part of your body over the blue line before the puck, or make it that your body has to be completely over the blue line before the puck. Very clear.
Agree it shouldn't be this hard  
pjcas18 : 1/10/2018 12:05 pm : link
and I don't think it should be reviewable at all unless the NHL changes to a system like the NFL - all scoring plays are reviewed which I think would be a bigger disaster.

get rid of challenges in hockey and go back to having coaches throw water bottles and sticks on the ice and yell at refs.
Holy shit  
pjcas18 : 1/12/2018 1:07 pm : link
this chart is ridiculous. Eichel is getting crucified in BUF, but he's been phenomenal (especially lately).

I'd love to somehow get MacKinnon.

Quote:

Dimitri Filipovic
‏Verified account @DimFilipovic
52m52 minutes ago

This is what happens when you put a really good player on a really bad team.

More than 1 out of every 3 goals the Sabres have scored this year have either been scored by Jack Eichel or directly assisted by him.


Kucherov is such a stud  
figgy2989 : 1/12/2018 1:16 pm : link
.
RE: Kucherov is such a stud  
pjcas18 : 1/12/2018 1:18 pm : link
In comment 13784775 figgy2989 said:
Quote:
.


Absolutely, MVP at the halfway point probably, but 46 primary points on that stacked TB team isn't nearly as impressive as the 44 primary points MacKinnon has in COL.

Agreed  
figgy2989 : 1/12/2018 1:24 pm : link
And MacKinnon is only 22.
Scary play in MTL  
pjcas18 : 1/13/2018 9:19 pm : link
Phillip Danualt took a Chara slap shot to what looked like the ear/back of the head. Taken off on a stretcher. Looked like he had movement, he was up on all fours for a second, but getting hit in the head with a shot like that is dangerous.

I like this quote from Shawn Thornton  
pjcas18 : 1/15/2018 4:25 pm : link
on Claude Julien's Bruins re: puck possession/Corsi



Part of an interview a MTL beat writer did on Julien.
Posted in a Rangers game thread  
pjcas18 : 1/17/2018 10:27 am : link
but worth mentioning separately.

Rasmus Dahlin, the projected (and really undisputed barring injury) #1 overall pick in the NHL draft this June, has been named to the Swedish Olympic hockey team.

Should be fun to see him play against mostly older players (many in their 30's) while just 17 years old.

Also, Olympic related, North and South Korea are trying to combine women's hockey teams with a 35 player roster, LOL. 22 I believe is the max, so other countries (Sweden) have complained this would give them an unfair advantage.

Honestly I'd be surprised if they score a goal in a normal olympics, but with amateurs who knows.

for world peace might be a good story to have that combined team win.
That quote by Thornton's dumb.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/17/2018 10:33 am : link
He's saying that Corsi indicated the Bruins were good... Which is what advanced stats guys have argued.

The idea of gaming is silly. If someone shoots from the blue line to generate a shot attempt, the lazy rebound will lead to the puck going the other way. Nobody does that because it wouldn't work.
I never thought of it in Thornton's terms though  
pjcas18 : 1/17/2018 10:39 am : link
it seems like, and he's a more knowledgeable source than you or I, players are aware of their Corsi, Fenwick, etc. and it seems like they believe people are evaluating them based on that.

I thought players were aloof for the most part wrt advanced stats and just wanted to play "their game".

I watched the Canadiens Islanders game after reading this paying attention to changes and noticed several players on the Canadiens always changing in the neutral zone and in some cases the others team driving into their zone.

Others (mostly younger guys - Drouin, Galchenyuk, Lehkonen, etc.) generally changed like I was coached only when the puck was in the offensive zone or when their team had possession.

Could be laziness could be intentional, could just be circumstance, I just never thought of it that way and I assumed players didn't give a shit.

I think there could be something to it, especially for veteran players.
Paille, Thornton, and Campbell all had shit possession numbers.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/17/2018 10:45 am : link
So saying they had good possession because of those guys isn't even factually correct. He just wants to be mad for no reason and spots out nonsense.
RE: Paille, Thornton, and Campbell all had shit possession numbers.  
pjcas18 : 1/17/2018 10:53 am : link
In comment 13793849 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
So saying they had good possession because of those guys isn't even factually correct. He just wants to be mad for no reason and spots out nonsense.


why does he want to be mad? I never liked him, but he was a 4th liner/goon. He had zero hockey value, yet made millions (I believe) playing a game he was barely skilled enough to play.

I have always believed that Corsi while interesting has zero correlation to team success.

I like his example of players not simply carrying the puck into the zone and taking a non-dangerous shot. dump, forecheck, and cycle creates goals and scoring chances, and much of that time you don't have the puck.

I do believe what every coach coaches today. If you have the puck the other team can't score, so possession is important, but if your failures and breakdowns are major who cares if you control the puck the majority of the game, from safe spaces.

It's a strange way analytic users look at the game.
Saying Corsi has 'zero to do with team success'  
MetsAreBack : 1/17/2018 12:01 pm : link
is more ridiculous than saying its the only thing that matters to winning a Cup. It does matter, at least a little.

Its just a stat. There's no stat out there, across any sport, that should be relied upon in isolation. Same thing with baseball when guys talk about WAR, etc and want to end their argument there.
RE: Saying Corsi has 'zero to do with team success'  
pjcas18 : 1/17/2018 12:20 pm : link
In comment 13793957 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
is more ridiculous than saying its the only thing that matters to winning a Cup. It does matter, at least a little.

Its just a stat. There's no stat out there, across any sport, that should be relied upon in isolation. Same thing with baseball when guys talk about WAR, etc and want to end their argument there.


How can you refute the lack of correlation? I didn't say it means nothing I said it's not correlative to team success. Meaning high corsi should equal team success.

2016 - 2017 top 5 in CF %:

LA Kings (missed playoffs)
Carolina Hurricanes (missed playoffs)
Bruins (barely snuck in, lost in 1st round)
Flyers (missed playoffs)
Panthers (missed playoffs)

PIT and NSH (two teams in Cup finals) were middle of the pack and #8 respectively. OTT (final 4) was 6th worst in the league and ANA was like PIT - bottom half.

It's an interesting data point, like I said, but in hockey it is not a correlative indicator of really anything about a teams results.

These days it's become a coaching mantra, control the puck, while you control the puck the other team can't score - no argument from me - that's 100% common sense, and it comes down from USA hockey at the highest levels all the way to youth hockey at the coaching clinics we have to take in order to coach (every year), but that's not a predictor of success as I mentioned and as a Rangers fan this should be apparent to you, the breakdowns can happen in a blink of an eye and safe shots and puck possession don't mean shit on the scoreboard if your breakdowns are brief but result in goals against.

This has been proven countless times that high corsi does not = team success so no idea why you think it's ridiculous.

And WAR is an individual measure so it's really an irrelevant comparison.

Unless you telling me individual CORSI means something relative to team success? I'd find that even more laughable.
Last year it didn't mean much  
MetsAreBack : 1/17/2018 3:26 pm : link
In the year prior Pittsburgh was a top 5 team in Corsi

The kings have won two cups as a top corsi team. Blackhawks were ranked high. Boston. Etc

You can't give us one year sample size to prove your case.

It's a decent team stat - shots and scoring chances do of course matter. So does team speed. Finishing ability. Goaltending. Power play and penalty kill stats. Fenwick. Etc.
Maybe it's old school  
pjcas18 : 1/17/2018 3:36 pm : link
but I think PDO is a better indicator of team success.

Sure it will or should eventually regress to the mean on both sides of the equation but it's so hard to quantify a "hot goalie",

And if you look at the outliers or leaders, they usually make the playoffs and if they have a high PDO in the playoffs they win (like the 2011 Bruins, who also probably had high PDO during the season).

I haven't done it, but I'd bet PDO tracks to team success far more than Corsi or fenwick or anything else.

And what can you do to control PDO? Keep shooting? Hope your goalie gets hot?

it's called puck luck for a reason, and though I hate the phrase since I believe to an extent you make your own luck.

Through effort and sound positional play, plus timely goaltending I believe can flip PDO to positive.
Thornton probably doesn't like a stat that shows how much he sucks.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/17/2018 4:27 pm : link
The value of CF% has declined meaningfully in recent years. The gap between the best and average teams has fallen, making random variations (shooting percentage - to a degree, hot goaltending, etc.) even more important.

PIT is also a bit of an outlier - they have two of the best players in the league (who usually have good possession numbers, but also have great S%). PIT also got really lucky last year - they didn't roll teams like in 2016. Holtby sucked against them, your boy Rinne sucked in a couple games in the SCF, for example.
PDO strikes me as a lagging indicator  
MetsAreBack : 1/17/2018 6:25 pm : link
not a forward looking one - unless you are trying to find teams likely to regress/improve towards the mean.. the Rangers unsustainably hot start last year, for example.

But who knows - everyone agrees the hockey postseason is a more random event than other sports. Pittsburgh won last year's Caps series basically on a puck off Orlov's skate.... and all the season long stats in the world don't matter in a game 7 overtime between Ottawa and Pittsburgh for the right to move on.

There has been research out there that a combined stat of 1) Corsi, 2) penalty kill percentage 3) season goal differential and 4) save percentage.. usually led to top 3-5 teams winning the Cup.

We all like to make fun of the Capitals and Trotz' lack of a neck -- but its pretty unbelievable how much bad luck has gone into their recent playoff failures. I just hope their window has passed because i cant stand that franchise.
It's funny because I have heard  
pjcas18 : 1/17/2018 7:58 pm : link
people describe both Corsi and Fenwick as lagging as well or if not lagging but non-predictive.

they said it won't tell you what is going to happen, but after the game it may tell you why it happened (though I disagree with that too).

And anyway it sounds the same to me as PDO.

however with PDO you can definitely look at a goalie/team goaltending and say holy shit look at his save % the past n games, that's insane. he's on fire.

Which may not be sustainable, but it's at least indicative of play. Where you can look at an individual or even a teams CF% and have it be indicative of nothing.

same with shooting %. We can all say things like Kucherov's shooting % isn't sustainable and as an individual it's absolutely true, but if you say the TB PDO is not sustainable, that's debatable and the TB PDO is absolutely an indicator of W/L.

Team PDO right now my guess is pretty close to a mirror of the standings, Corsi is not.

Lagging perhaps, but it's better at explaining what happened and why than Corsi.
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